Re: [MBZ] Max's COVID-19 vs H1N1 update
Time for another update! On Mon, Apr 6, 2020 at 9:14 AM Meade Dillon wrote: > Then: > > H1N1: From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, a study estimated that > approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 > hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) > occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. > > > Now: Covid-19: 558,526 cases, 61,201 hospitalized, 22,146 deaths* *The CDC has changed the rules for what is included in the death count, in order to include more cases (i.e. increase the death count). https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf "However, the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID-19 being the underlying cause more often than not." In other words, it is no longer possible to make a fair comparison between then and now. Draw your own conclusions. In the good news department, it appears that the number of new cases and the number of deaths have leveled off and are starting to drop, so the worst is now behind us. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/26/covid-19-tracker/ - Max Charleston SC ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Max's COVID-19 vs H1N1 update
Weekly update. Then and now: H1N1: From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, a study estimated that approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. COVID-19 As of today, 6 April: ~337,000 cases, ~9600 deaths. Plain Old Flu as killed ~24,000 Americans this season, estimated to top out around 30,000. On the good news front: https://www.fda.gov.ph/fda-approves-rapid-antibody-test-kits-for-covid-19/ Next we need studies to determine the size of our population that has already been exposed to the virus and recovered, and then we'll have a much better model of the lethality of the virus (the denominator) and be able to make some fact-based decisions about policy. - Max Charleston SC ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Max's COVID-19 vs H1N1 update
I dont know the answer to that. Not hard to figure out when it is all over. The main issue is that it is all happening relatively rapidly. The other issue not captured in all cause mortality is the ages of the people who are dying. Lots of people 60 and even a fair number of 50-somethings. These are deaths that we would not expect and a lot of years of productive life lost, or YPLL. QALY is another measure - quality adjusted life years. One year at 99 is typically not as high quality as a year at age 50. On Sun, Mar 29, 2020, 7:19 AM Andrew Strasfogel wrote: > Karl, I wonder - what is the percentage of COVID 19 deaths above the > pre-pandemic "average" death totals in NYC? > > On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 4:50 PM Karl Wittnebel via Mercedes < > mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > >> Yeah. Flu is no joke either. But its rate of hospitalizing people does not >> compare. The main difference is that many people are already immune to >> h1n1, so they dont all show up to the ER at the same time, also because >> h1n1 is less contagious. And covid 19 hospitalizes 20% of the people it >> infects, roughly, which flu does not do. So it is spreading fast into to a >> population with no herd immunity, and making a bunch of them pretty sick. >> >> See my reply to Dan for a link to the estimated ICU bed shortage state by >> state, estimated deaths etc. They project 81k deaths for the country as a >> whole IIRC for this epidemic over a few months. But NY is short thousands >> of ICU beds and hospital beds, because it hits faster there, whereas >> CLifonia put distancing in place earlier, so it peaks more slowly and we >> remain within our bed capacity mostly. It will still be ugly here and we >> still dont have n95 masks for ourselves or our residents dealing with >> these >> patients. (The critical care people doing all the intubations get first >> dibs on the n95s). But NYC is in for a truly terrible couple of weeks >> coming up. Just terrible. Models are just estimates but it looks like they >> are already piling up bodies in refrigerated containers outside the >> hospital. >> >> On Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 9:43 AM Meade Dillon via Mercedes < >> mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: >> >> > Time for another update. >> > >> > Then and now: >> > >> > H1N1: From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, a study estimated that >> > approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 >> > hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) >> > occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. >> > >> > COVID-19 As of today, 28 March: ~106,000 cases, ~1700 deaths. >> > >> > Plain Old Flu as killed ~22,000 Americans this season, estimated to top >> out >> > around 30,000. >> > >> > Try to keep perspective folks! >> > >> > - >> > Max >> > Charleston SC >> > >> > >> > On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 8:32 AM Meade Dillon >> wrote: >> > >> > > Then and now: >> > > >> > > H1N1: From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, a study estimated that >> > > approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 >> > > hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) >> > > occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. >> > > >> > > COVID-19 As of today: ~9400 cases, ~150 deaths. >> > > >> > > Plain Old Flu as killed ~20,000 Americans this season, estimated to >> top >> > > out around 30,000. >> > > >> > > Draw your own conclusions. >> > > - >> > > Max >> > > Charleston SC >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > ___ >> > http://www.okiebenz.com >> > >> > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ >> > >> > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: >> > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com >> > >> > >> ___ >> http://www.okiebenz.com >> >> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ >> >> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: >> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com >> >> ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Max's COVID-19 vs H1N1 update
Karl, I wonder - what is the percentage of COVID 19 deaths above the pre-pandemic "average" death totals in NYC? On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 4:50 PM Karl Wittnebel via Mercedes < mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > Yeah. Flu is no joke either. But its rate of hospitalizing people does not > compare. The main difference is that many people are already immune to > h1n1, so they dont all show up to the ER at the same time, also because > h1n1 is less contagious. And covid 19 hospitalizes 20% of the people it > infects, roughly, which flu does not do. So it is spreading fast into to a > population with no herd immunity, and making a bunch of them pretty sick. > > See my reply to Dan for a link to the estimated ICU bed shortage state by > state, estimated deaths etc. They project 81k deaths for the country as a > whole IIRC for this epidemic over a few months. But NY is short thousands > of ICU beds and hospital beds, because it hits faster there, whereas > CLifonia put distancing in place earlier, so it peaks more slowly and we > remain within our bed capacity mostly. It will still be ugly here and we > still dont have n95 masks for ourselves or our residents dealing with these > patients. (The critical care people doing all the intubations get first > dibs on the n95s). But NYC is in for a truly terrible couple of weeks > coming up. Just terrible. Models are just estimates but it looks like they > are already piling up bodies in refrigerated containers outside the > hospital. > > On Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 9:43 AM Meade Dillon via Mercedes < > mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > > > Time for another update. > > > > Then and now: > > > > H1N1: From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, a study estimated that > > approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 > > hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) > > occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. > > > > COVID-19 As of today, 28 March: ~106,000 cases, ~1700 deaths. > > > > Plain Old Flu as killed ~22,000 Americans this season, estimated to top > out > > around 30,000. > > > > Try to keep perspective folks! > > > > - > > Max > > Charleston SC > > > > > > On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 8:32 AM Meade Dillon > wrote: > > > > > Then and now: > > > > > > H1N1: From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, a study estimated that > > > approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 > > > hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) > > > occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. > > > > > > COVID-19 As of today: ~9400 cases, ~150 deaths. > > > > > > Plain Old Flu as killed ~20,000 Americans this season, estimated to top > > > out around 30,000. > > > > > > Draw your own conclusions. > > > - > > > Max > > > Charleston SC > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ___ > > http://www.okiebenz.com > > > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > > > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] Max's COVID-19 vs H1N1 update
Yeah. Flu is no joke either. But its rate of hospitalizing people does not compare. The main difference is that many people are already immune to h1n1, so they dont all show up to the ER at the same time, also because h1n1 is less contagious. And covid 19 hospitalizes 20% of the people it infects, roughly, which flu does not do. So it is spreading fast into to a population with no herd immunity, and making a bunch of them pretty sick. See my reply to Dan for a link to the estimated ICU bed shortage state by state, estimated deaths etc. They project 81k deaths for the country as a whole IIRC for this epidemic over a few months. But NY is short thousands of ICU beds and hospital beds, because it hits faster there, whereas CLifonia put distancing in place earlier, so it peaks more slowly and we remain within our bed capacity mostly. It will still be ugly here and we still dont have n95 masks for ourselves or our residents dealing with these patients. (The critical care people doing all the intubations get first dibs on the n95s). But NYC is in for a truly terrible couple of weeks coming up. Just terrible. Models are just estimates but it looks like they are already piling up bodies in refrigerated containers outside the hospital. On Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 9:43 AM Meade Dillon via Mercedes < mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > Time for another update. > > Then and now: > > H1N1: From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, a study estimated that > approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 > hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) > occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. > > COVID-19 As of today, 28 March: ~106,000 cases, ~1700 deaths. > > Plain Old Flu as killed ~22,000 Americans this season, estimated to top out > around 30,000. > > Try to keep perspective folks! > > - > Max > Charleston SC > > > On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 8:32 AM Meade Dillon wrote: > > > Then and now: > > > > H1N1: From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, a study estimated that > > approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 > > hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) > > occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. > > > > COVID-19 As of today: ~9400 cases, ~150 deaths. > > > > Plain Old Flu as killed ~20,000 Americans this season, estimated to top > > out around 30,000. > > > > Draw your own conclusions. > > - > > Max > > Charleston SC > > > > > > > > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
[MBZ] Max's COVID-19 vs H1N1 update
Time for another update. Then and now: H1N1: From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, a study estimated that approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. COVID-19 As of today, 28 March: ~106,000 cases, ~1700 deaths. Plain Old Flu as killed ~22,000 Americans this season, estimated to top out around 30,000. Try to keep perspective folks! - Max Charleston SC On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 8:32 AM Meade Dillon wrote: > Then and now: > > H1N1: From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, a study estimated that > approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 > hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) > occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. > > COVID-19 As of today: ~9400 cases, ~150 deaths. > > Plain Old Flu as killed ~20,000 Americans this season, estimated to top > out around 30,000. > > Draw your own conclusions. > - > Max > Charleston SC > > > > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
