Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-20 Thread archer75--- via Mercedes
Quinine can be dangerous:

https://www.peoplespharmacy.com/articles/is-quinine-in-tonic-water-safe
..
MG via Mercedes  wrote:

> It still comes in glass bottles? All I've looked 
> at in the stores are in plastic. In any case your 
> method will probably work quite well, unless you 
> don't want to buy a bottle just to find out.
> 
> MG
> 
> Craig via Mercedes wrote:
> > On Fri, 20 Mar 2020 11:55:36 -0500 MG via Mercedes
> >  wrote:
> > 
> >> If it says 'contains quinine' on the bottle then 
> >> it should. If I remember right quinine fluoresces 
> >> under UV light so you could hit it with your AC 
> >> leak detector light and see what happens
> > 
> > But you cannot aim the light at the bottle and see -- glass absorbs UV --
> > you have to pour some out and aim the light directly at the liquid.
> > 
> > 
> > Craig
> > 
> > ___
> > http://www.okiebenz.com
> > 
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> > 
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> > 
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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-20 Thread Craig via Mercedes
On Fri, 20 Mar 2020 11:58:23 -0500 MG via Mercedes
 wrote:

> It still comes in glass bottles? All I've looked 
> at in the stores are in plastic. In any case your 
> method will probably work quite well, unless you 
> don't want to buy a bottle just to find out.

Sorry, I presumed it came in glass bottles, since I have never bought any.

Plastic also absorbs UV, so my statement below is still accurate.


Craig

> Craig via Mercedes wrote:
> > On Fri, 20 Mar 2020 11:55:36 -0500 MG via Mercedes
> >  wrote:
> > 
> >> If it says 'contains quinine' on the bottle then 
> >> it should. If I remember right quinine fluoresces 
> >> under UV light so you could hit it with your AC 
> >> leak detector light and see what happens
> > 
> > But you cannot aim the light at the bottle and see -- glass absorbs
> > UV -- you have to pour some out and aim the light directly at the
> > liquid.

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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-20 Thread Andrew Strasfogel via Mercedes
I wonder -is there "quinine flavoring" that subverts this proposed remedy?

On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 12:59 PM MG via Mercedes 
wrote:

> It still comes in glass bottles? All I've looked
> at in the stores are in plastic. In any case your
> method will probably work quite well, unless you
> don't want to buy a bottle just to find out.
>
> MG
>
> Craig via Mercedes wrote:
> > On Fri, 20 Mar 2020 11:55:36 -0500 MG via Mercedes
> >  wrote:
> >
> >> If it says 'contains quinine' on the bottle then
> >> it should. If I remember right quinine fluoresces
> >> under UV light so you could hit it with your AC
> >> leak detector light and see what happens
> >
> > But you cannot aim the light at the bottle and see -- glass absorbs UV --
> > you have to pour some out and aim the light directly at the liquid.
> >
> >
> > Craig
> >
> > ___
> > http://www.okiebenz.com
> >
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> >
> > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
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> >
> >
>
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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-20 Thread MG via Mercedes
It still comes in glass bottles? All I've looked 
at in the stores are in plastic. In any case your 
method will probably work quite well, unless you 
don't want to buy a bottle just to find out.


MG

Craig via Mercedes wrote:

On Fri, 20 Mar 2020 11:55:36 -0500 MG via Mercedes
 wrote:

If it says 'contains quinine' on the bottle then 
it should. If I remember right quinine fluoresces 
under UV light so you could hit it with your AC 
leak detector light and see what happens


But you cannot aim the light at the bottle and see -- glass absorbs UV --
you have to pour some out and aim the light directly at the liquid.


Craig

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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-20 Thread Craig via Mercedes
On Fri, 20 Mar 2020 11:55:36 -0500 MG via Mercedes
 wrote:

> If it says 'contains quinine' on the bottle then 
> it should. If I remember right quinine fluoresces 
> under UV light so you could hit it with your AC 
> leak detector light and see what happens

But you cannot aim the light at the bottle and see -- glass absorbs UV --
you have to pour some out and aim the light directly at the liquid.


Craig

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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-20 Thread MG via Mercedes
If it says 'contains quinine' on the bottle then 
it should. If I remember right quinine fluoresces 
under UV light so you could hit it with your AC 
leak detector light and see what happens


MG.

Clay via Mercedes wrote:
So,  I should increase intake of Gin and Tonic?


I wonder if Schweppes still uses original recipe in their tonic

clay


On Mar 19, 2020, at 5:16 PM, archer75--- via Mercedes  
wrote:

If chloroquine does prove to be the magic bullet that controls the coronavirus 
epidemic, it will be a remarkable coincidence since the organism it has been 
killing for 70+ years; a protzoan; is completely unrelated to the virus that 
causes coronavirus infection. That's based on current knowledge, but there may 
be biochemical similarities that explain it. The protozoan is easily seen via a 
clinical microscope such as below:




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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread archer75--- via Mercedes
Assuming a person has a normal immune system, a person should be immune for a 
period of months. This supposition is based on the nature of somewhat similar 
virus diseases. 
A university prof virologist, says the difficulty of making assumptions about 
this virus is that it has the characteristics of 3 different viruses. Given 
more time, more will be known, and treatment will hopefully be more effective.

OK Don wrote:
> Umm - immunity to the common cold, another corona virus, doesn't work.
> There's no real reason to think that this corona virus will let you build
> immunity to it either. All it has to do is morph, change, evolve a bit, and
> off it goes.
> 
> On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 11:35 PM archer75--- via Mercedes <
> mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
> 
> > Worldwide we should already be building up a population of cured and
> > immune workers who can go back to work in perfect safety and gradually get
> > cities and towns back on a functional basis; the first item being the
> > restoration of the medical system to the point where both coronavirus
> > patients, and ordinary patients, can be treated effectively.
> >
> -- 
> OK Don
> 
> "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to
> pause and reflect." Mark Twain
> 
> "There are three kinds of men: The ones that learns by reading. The few who
> learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence
> for themselves."
> 
> WILL ROGERS, *The Manly Wisdom of Will Rogers*
> 2013 F150, 18 mpg
> 2017 Subaru Legacy, 30 mpg
> 1957 C182A, 12 mpg - but at 150 mph!
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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread archer75--- via Mercedes
No, gin and hydroxychloroquine.
Gerry

> So,  I should increase intake of Gin and Tonic?
> 
> I wonder if Schweppes still uses original recipe in their tonic
> 
> clay
> 
> > On Mar 19, 2020, at 5:16 PM, archer75--- via Mercedes 
> >  wrote:
> > 
> > If chloroquine does prove to be the magic bullet that controls the 
> > coronavirus epidemic, it will be a remarkable coincidence since the 
> > organism it has been killing for 70+ years; a protzoan; is completely 
> > unrelated to the virus that causes coronavirus infection. That's based on 
> > current knowledge, but there may be biochemical similarities that explain 
> > it. The protozoan is easily seen via a clinical microscope such as below:
> 
> 
> 
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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread OK Don via Mercedes
Umm - immunity to the common cold, another corona virus, doesn't work.
There's no real reason to think that this corona virus will let you build
immunity to it either. All it has to do is morph, change, evolve a bit, and
off it goes.

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 11:35 PM archer75--- via Mercedes <
mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:

> Worldwide we should already be building up a population of cured and
> immune workers who can go back to work in perfect safety and gradually get
> cities and towns back on a functional basis; the first item being the
> restoration of the medical system to the point where both coronavirus
> patients, and ordinary patients, can be treated effectively.
>
-- 
OK Don

"Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to
pause and reflect." Mark Twain

"There are three kinds of men: The ones that learns by reading. The few who
learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence
for themselves."

WILL ROGERS, *The Manly Wisdom of Will Rogers*
2013 F150, 18 mpg
2017 Subaru Legacy, 30 mpg
1957 C182A, 12 mpg - but at 150 mph!
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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread archer75--- via Mercedes
Worldwide we should already be building up a population of cured and immune 
workers who can go back to work in perfect safety and gradually get cities and 
towns back on a functional basis; the first item being the restoration of the 
medical system to the point where both coronavirus patients, and ordinary 
patients, can be treated effectively.

..
Clay via Mercedes  wrote:

> Because the press is overly fond of sharing the data, I am able to keep track 
> of the hotbed of US infection on an hourly basis, even though I no longer 
> live in WA.  Latest figure had 74 deaths out of 1376 confirmed infected.  
> That seems consistent with the figure stated below.  There was a 10% fatality 
> in the beginning, but has been falling toward a 5.5% kill ratio since.  
> 
> Alaska is setting up regulations governing behaviour of those entering the 
> state from outside.  The college kids being repatriated, if they come from an 
> area of contagion, will have to isolate for at least 14 days, not attend 
> events outside their homes, use public transport, or come in contact with 
> others outside their homes.
> 
> Meanwhile, eateries are no longer able to serve food unless it is delivery or 
> pick up.  Employment in that sector (including bars) has fallen to 10% of 
> former staffing levels.  Hope is that this only lasts until April 1.  Cruise 
> ships will not arrive until July, which is a massive hit to the employment 
> where boats disgorged visitors.  Expectations were for an increase in 
> revenues of up to 40% in 2020 from tourism.   The oil fields are packing up 
> due to the decrease in oil prices.  Todays. price for a barrel was $22.43, 
> down from the expected/budgeted $69 at the beginning of the year.  Larger 
> companies are idling rigs and dropping capital investment by approx. 25%.  
> News this morning was some $280 million of the expected $1.8bn was leaving 
> the table, with other firms not yet reporting their coming cuts.
> 
> All the applaud for government handouts is silly, as somebody (you and I, the 
> tax payers) will be footing the bill.  Better that we were able to keep on 
> interacting with business to keep the economy flowing, and allow the creation 
> of jobs related to any deaths that take place.  More grave digger jobs, more 
> flower arrangements and florist delivery, more hallmark cards, janitorial 
> positions, and the sports and entertainment sector, as well as travel could 
> just keep chugging along.
> 
> I did enjoy the dissonance of the CBC stories about closing down businesses, 
> rousting kids from college dorms at Concordia in Montreal, shutting the 
> border to non Canadians, and the story of the need to import 16k agricultural 
> workers from Mexico to keep food growing and produce sections viable.  As if 
> wetbacks are immune to the flu.  Just wait until tamale munchers start 
> dropping dead off their burros.
> 
> clay
> 
> > On Mar 18, 2020, at 6:55 PM, Peter Frederick via Mercedes 
> >  wrote:
> > 
> > More to the point, how many people will need hospitalization to survive, 
> > and for how long.  Doctors in Italy are being forced to decide who gets 
> > life saving care already, and the case load is still climbing.
> > 
> > At the current rate of increase in caseload in the US we will hit 1.5 
> > million infections in about four weeks.  3.5% of that is 51,000 deaths and 
> > 200,000 or so people in the hospital for more than a week, possibly as many 
> > as 700,000.  We don't have that many hospital beds.
> > 
> > Death rate in Italy appears to be 4-5% as well
> 
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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Clay via Mercedes
So,  I should increase intake of Gin and Tonic?

I wonder if Schweppes still uses original recipe in their tonic

clay

> On Mar 19, 2020, at 5:16 PM, archer75--- via Mercedes  
> wrote:
> 
> If chloroquine does prove to be the magic bullet that controls the 
> coronavirus epidemic, it will be a remarkable coincidence since the organism 
> it has been killing for 70+ years; a protzoan; is completely unrelated to the 
> virus that causes coronavirus infection. That's based on current knowledge, 
> but there may be biochemical similarities that explain it. The protozoan is 
> easily seen via a clinical microscope such as below:



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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Clay via Mercedes
Because the press is overly fond of sharing the data, I am able to keep track 
of the hotbed of US infection on an hourly basis, even though I no longer live 
in WA.  Latest figure had 74 deaths out of 1376 confirmed infected.  That seems 
consistent with the figure stated below.  There was a 10% fatality in the 
beginning, but has been falling toward a 5.5% kill ratio since.  

Alaska is setting up regulations governing behaviour of those entering the 
state from outside.  The college kids being repatriated, if they come from an 
area of contagion, will have to isolate for at least 14 days, not attend events 
outside their homes, use public transport, or come in contact with others 
outside their homes.

Meanwhile, eateries are no longer able to serve food unless it is delivery or 
pick up.  Employment in that sector (including bars) has fallen to 10% of 
former staffing levels.  Hope is that this only lasts until April 1.  Cruise 
ships will not arrive until July, which is a massive hit to the employment 
where boats disgorged visitors.  Expectations were for an increase in revenues 
of up to 40% in 2020 from tourism.   The oil fields are packing up due to the 
decrease in oil prices.  Todays. price for a barrel was $22.43, down from the 
expected/budgeted $69 at the beginning of the year.  Larger companies are 
idling rigs and dropping capital investment by approx. 25%.  News this morning 
was some $280 million of the expected $1.8bn was leaving the table, with other 
firms not yet reporting their coming cuts.

All the applaud for government handouts is silly, as somebody (you and I, the 
tax payers) will be footing the bill.  Better that we were able to keep on 
interacting with business to keep the economy flowing, and allow the creation 
of jobs related to any deaths that take place.  More grave digger jobs, more 
flower arrangements and florist delivery, more hallmark cards, janitorial 
positions, and the sports and entertainment sector, as well as travel could 
just keep chugging along.

I did enjoy the dissonance of the CBC stories about closing down businesses, 
rousting kids from college dorms at Concordia in Montreal, shutting the border 
to non Canadians, and the story of the need to import 16k agricultural workers 
from Mexico to keep food growing and produce sections viable.  As if wetbacks 
are immune to the flu.  Just wait until tamale munchers start dropping dead off 
their burros.

clay

> On Mar 18, 2020, at 6:55 PM, Peter Frederick via Mercedes 
>  wrote:
> 
> More to the point, how many people will need hospitalization to survive, and 
> for how long.  Doctors in Italy are being forced to decide who gets life 
> saving care already, and the case load is still climbing.
> 
> At the current rate of increase in caseload in the US we will hit 1.5 million 
> infections in about four weeks.  3.5% of that is 51,000 deaths and 200,000 or 
> so people in the hospital for more than a week, possibly as many as 700,000.  
> We don't have that many hospital beds.
> 
> Death rate in Italy appears to be 4-5% as well

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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Buggered Benzmail via Mercedes
The Brits in India were on to something with the gin & tonic. I shall be 
practicing prophylaxis tomorrow evening. This isolation is tough but I’m going 
to try. 

--FT
Sent from iPhone

> On Mar 19, 2020, at 9:17 PM, archer75--- via Mercedes  
> wrote:
> 
> If chloroquine does prove to be the magic bullet that controls the 
> coronavirus epidemic, it will be a remarkable coincidence since the organism 
> it has been killing for 70+ years; a protzoan; is completely unrelated to the 
> virus that causes coronavirus infection. That's based on current knowledge, 
> but there may be biochemical similarities that explain it. The protozoan is 
> easily seen via a clinical microscope such as below:
> 
> https://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search;_ylt=AwrEeSS9CXRe2RUAIgsPxQt.;_ylc=X1MDMjExNDcwMDU1OQRfcgMyBGZyA3locy1pYmEtMQRncHJpZANSSW1nc1NLcVExeUFUckx0akZTWWtBBG5fcnNsdAMwBG5fc3VnZwMwBG9yaWdpbgNzZWFyY2gueWFob28uY29tBHBvcwMwBHBxc3RyAwRwcXN0cmwDMARxc3RybAM0NARxdWVyeQNtYWxhcmlhJTIwcHJvdG96b2ElMjBhcmUlMjB2aXNpYmxlJTIwbWljcm9zY29waWNhbGx5BHRfc3RtcAMxNTg0NjYzMjc0?p=malaria+protozoa+are+visible+microscopically=sb-top=iba=yhs-1=InsieWlkIjoiZ3lmZiIsImN0YWciOiI4NzgzIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6IjEuMC4wIn0i=r=gyff_8783_FFW_US
> 
> An Australian lab has discovered a unique cell that appears in the 
> bloodstream when a person is infected with the coronavirus, and disappears as 
> the patient improves. IMHO this could be a way of diagnosing the coronavirus 
> disease if no diagnostic kits are available. It could probably be done while 
> the patient waits if there are no special staining or incubating requirements.
> 
> https://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?hspart=iba=r=yhs-1=gyff_8783_FFW_US=unique+cell+appears+in+bloodstream+of+coronavirus+patients=InsieWlkIjoiZ3lmZiIsImN0YWciOiI4NzgzIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6IjEuMC4wIn0i
> 
> Curley wrote:
> 
>> I heard that on the radio today.  THey said countries where Malaria is 
>> rampant, and Chloroquine is widely used, there is no or almost no wuhan 
>> virus.
>> Rick Knoble via Mercedes wrote on 3/19/20 11:51 AM:
>>> Chloroquine is being expedited as a treatment. It has worked in South 
>>> Korea, and France. There is another anti malaria drug, but I don't recall 
>>> the name. These can also be taken as a prophylaxis for those are highest 
>>> risk. Home run. Possibly a grand slam.
>>> 
>>> Rick
> 
> 
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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread archer75--- via Mercedes
If chloroquine does prove to be the magic bullet that controls the coronavirus 
epidemic, it will be a remarkable coincidence since the organism it has been 
killing for 70+ years; a protzoan; is completely unrelated to the virus that 
causes coronavirus infection. That's based on current knowledge, but there may 
be biochemical similarities that explain it. The protozoan is easily seen via a 
clinical microscope such as below:

https://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search;_ylt=AwrEeSS9CXRe2RUAIgsPxQt.;_ylc=X1MDMjExNDcwMDU1OQRfcgMyBGZyA3locy1pYmEtMQRncHJpZANSSW1nc1NLcVExeUFUckx0akZTWWtBBG5fcnNsdAMwBG5fc3VnZwMwBG9yaWdpbgNzZWFyY2gueWFob28uY29tBHBvcwMwBHBxc3RyAwRwcXN0cmwDMARxc3RybAM0NARxdWVyeQNtYWxhcmlhJTIwcHJvdG96b2ElMjBhcmUlMjB2aXNpYmxlJTIwbWljcm9zY29waWNhbGx5BHRfc3RtcAMxNTg0NjYzMjc0?p=malaria+protozoa+are+visible+microscopically=sb-top=iba=yhs-1=InsieWlkIjoiZ3lmZiIsImN0YWciOiI4NzgzIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6IjEuMC4wIn0i=r=gyff_8783_FFW_US

An Australian lab has discovered a unique cell that appears in the bloodstream 
when a person is infected with the coronavirus, and disappears as the patient 
improves. IMHO this could be a way of diagnosing the coronavirus disease if no 
diagnostic kits are available. It could probably be done while the patient 
waits if there are no special staining or incubating requirements.

https://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?hspart=iba=r=yhs-1=gyff_8783_FFW_US=unique+cell+appears+in+bloodstream+of+coronavirus+patients=InsieWlkIjoiZ3lmZiIsImN0YWciOiI4NzgzIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6IjEuMC4wIn0i

Curley wrote:

> I heard that on the radio today.  THey said countries where Malaria is 
> rampant, and Chloroquine is widely used, there is no or almost no wuhan 
> virus.
> Rick Knoble via Mercedes wrote on 3/19/20 11:51 AM:
> > Chloroquine is being expedited as a treatment. It has worked in South 
> > Korea, and France. There is another anti malaria drug, but I don't recall 
> > the name. These can also be taken as a prophylaxis for those are highest 
> > risk. Home run. Possibly a grand slam.
> >
> > Rick


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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Curley McLain via Mercedes
I heard that on the radio today.  THey said countries where Malaria is 
rampant, and Chloroquine is widely used, there is no or almost no wuhan 
virus.

Rick Knoble via Mercedes wrote on 3/19/20 11:51 AM:

Chloroquine is being expedited as a treatment. It has worked in South Korea, 
and France. There is another anti malaria drug, but I don't recall the name. 
These can also be taken as a prophylaxis for those are highest risk. Home run. 
Possibly a grand slam.

Rick




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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Floyd Thursby via Mercedes
The boy told me his hospital folks developed their own testing stuff a 
week or two ago and it was better


--FT

On 3/19/20 2:02 PM, Curt Raymond via Mercedes wrote:

  Oh man, last night I read up on the poop show that was the CDC on testing. When this is 
all done theres gonna be people at the CDC that will have some 'splaining to do.10 days 
they sat on failed test kits "We'll work it out." finally private labs worked 
it out once it was clear the CDC never would.
-Curt

 On Wednesday, March 18, 2020, 11:29:31 PM EDT, Peter Frederick via Mercedes 
 wrote:
  
  Well, if we had used the WHO test for the novel coronavirus (Like South Korea did) when it was offered to us in late January we likely could have prevented the vast majority of the cases we have now because we could have actually tracked exposure.


WHO is far from perfect, but so is the Senate.



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.


--
--FT


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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Curt Raymond via Mercedes
 If the entire world is sitting at 170,000 cases right now I find it 
extraordinarily unlikely that the US alone will have 10x that number in 4 
weeks. Especially with China already over the hump and having seen zero new 
cases yesterday.
Yes I assume the Chinese are either lying about no new cases or they've stopped 
testing new people but I do expect that they're over the hump and cases are 
declining...
-Curt

On Wednesday, March 18, 2020, 10:56:17 PM EDT, Peter Frederick via Mercedes 
 wrote:  
 
 More to the point, how many people will need hospitalization to survive, and 
for how long.  Doctors in Italy are being forced to decide who gets life saving 
care already, and the case load is still climbing.

At the current rate of increase in caseload in the US we will hit 1.5 million 
infections in about four weeks.  3.5% of that is 51,000 deaths and 200,000 or 
so people in the hospital for more than a week, possibly as many as 700,000.  
We don't have that many hospital beds.

Death rate in Italy appears to be 4-5% as well
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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Curt Raymond via Mercedes
 I've basically stopped listening to any "I heard" because its probably all 
rubbish.Mild symptoms don't result in lung damage, that doesn't pass the sniff 
test. If there was lung damage, especially if it was permanent, the symptoms 
wouldn't be mild.
-Curt

On Thursday, March 19, 2020, 2:41:35 AM EDT, Scott Ritchey via Mercedes 
 wrote:  
 
 The key question is 4-5% of what?  The total population?  The number of 
estimated cases? The number that tested positive?  The number sick enough to be 
hospitalized?

I also heard that some young/healthy folks infected but with minimal symptoms 
suffered (permanent?  long term?)lung damage.

> -Original Message-
> From:  Peter Frederick via Mercedes
...
> Death rate in Italy appears to be 4-5% as well


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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Allan Streib via Mercedes
Smoking is quite prevalent in China also.

Meade Dillon via Mercedes  writes:

> Italy has an older population than the US and much older than South
> Korea, and apparently they stay skinny by smoking, there is your
> explanation for a higher death rate there.
> -
> Max
> Charleston SC

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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Curt Raymond via Mercedes
 Oh man, last night I read up on the poop show that was the CDC on testing. 
When this is all done theres gonna be people at the CDC that will have some 
'splaining to do.10 days they sat on failed test kits "We'll work it out." 
finally private labs worked it out once it was clear the CDC never would.
-Curt

On Wednesday, March 18, 2020, 11:29:31 PM EDT, Peter Frederick via Mercedes 
 wrote:  
 
 Well, if we had used the WHO test for the novel coronavirus (Like South Korea 
did) when it was offered to us in late January we likely could have prevented 
the vast majority of the cases we have now because we could have actually 
tracked exposure.

WHO is far from perfect, but so is the Senate.



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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Curt Raymond via Mercedes
 Its also kind of a Faustian bargain too. If we "protect" ourselves this way 
but destroy our economy whats the point? You'll be alive but have no money for 
food or housing...
-Curt

On Wednesday, March 18, 2020, 11:19:19 PM EDT, Curley McLain via Mercedes 
 wrote:  
 
 right.   and the theory is that by having people try to be hermits, we 
can lower the peak numbers and spread the hopital load out over a longer 
time.   Sounds good on paper.   We are old enough to remember when we 
DID have a lot more hospital beds.   Hospitals were closed and torn down 
or converted to other use "Because we don't need so many beds" in the 
80s and 90s. Many towns lost their only hospital.    Like everything 
else, need for hospital beds is cyclical.   The regular flu is 
cyclical.  the death numbers go up over 100% and the next year may be 
only 50% of the peak year.

But lying with statistics is still lying.   We need to cut funding to UN 
and its offspring WHO.   The USA can stand on out own.

Peter Frederick via Mercedes wrote on 3/18/20 9:55 PM:
> More to the point, how many people will need hospitalization to survive, and 
> for how long.  Doctors in Italy are being forced to decide who gets life 
> saving care already, and the case load is still climbing.
>
> At the current rate of increase in caseload in the US we will hit 1.5 million 
> infections in about four weeks.  3.5% of that is 51,000 deaths and 200,000 or 
> so people in the hospital for more than a week, possibly as many as 700,000.  
> We don't have that many hospital beds.
>
> Death rate in Italy appears to be 4-5% as well
>


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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Andrew Strasfogel via Mercedes
Oh please.  I never heard Trump complain about the lack of attention to a
possible pandemic in January.

On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:38 PM Dimitri Seretakis via Mercedes <
mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:

> Right and in January Congress was too busy impeaching the president rather
> than legislating. I can’t image that helped the situation.
>
> Sent from my iPhone
>
> > On Mar 19, 2020, at 8:08 AM, Meade Dillon via Mercedes <
> mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
> >
> > I think that the law / regulations set in place by Congress prevented us
> > from using any test developed by private industry or outside the US, back
> > in January.  Hindsight is 20-20.
> >
> > Remember that in mid-January, WHO was parroting the CHICOM lie that this
> > virus was not able to be transmitted from human to human.
> >
> >
> https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/18/flashback-who-china-coronavirus-contagious/
> >
> > -
> > Max
> > Charleston SC
> >
> >
> >> On Wed, Mar 18, 2020 at 11:29 PM Peter Frederick via Mercedes <
> >> mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
> >>
> >> Well, if we had used the WHO test for the novel coronavirus (Like South
> >> Korea did) when it was offered to us in late January we likely could
> have
> >> prevented the vast majority of the cases we have now because we could
> have
> >> actually tracked exposure.
> >>
> >> WHO is far from perfect, but so is the Senate.
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> ___
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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Dimitri Seretakis via Mercedes
Right and in January Congress was too busy impeaching the president rather than 
legislating. I can’t image that helped the situation.

Sent from my iPhone

> On Mar 19, 2020, at 8:08 AM, Meade Dillon via Mercedes 
>  wrote:
> 
> I think that the law / regulations set in place by Congress prevented us
> from using any test developed by private industry or outside the US, back
> in January.  Hindsight is 20-20.
> 
> Remember that in mid-January, WHO was parroting the CHICOM lie that this
> virus was not able to be transmitted from human to human.
> 
> https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/18/flashback-who-china-coronavirus-contagious/
> 
> -
> Max
> Charleston SC
> 
> 
>> On Wed, Mar 18, 2020 at 11:29 PM Peter Frederick via Mercedes <
>> mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
>> 
>> Well, if we had used the WHO test for the novel coronavirus (Like South
>> Korea did) when it was offered to us in late January we likely could have
>> prevented the vast majority of the cases we have now because we could have
>> actually tracked exposure.
>> 
>> WHO is far from perfect, but so is the Senate.
>> 
>> 
>> 
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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Rick Knoble via Mercedes
Chloroquine is being expedited as a treatment. It has worked in South Korea, 
and France. There is another anti malaria drug, but I don't recall the name. 
These can also be taken as a prophylaxis for those are highest risk. Home run. 
Possibly a grand slam. 

Rick


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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Allan Streib via Mercedes
The WHO test was never offered to us.

"No discussions occurred between WHO and CDC about WHO providing
COVID-19 tests to the United States," said WHO spokeswoman Margaret
Harris. "This is consistent with experience since the United States
does not ordinarily rely on WHO for reagents or diagnostic tests
because of sufficient domestic capacity."

Allan

Peter Frederick via Mercedes  writes:

> Well, if we had used the WHO test for the novel coronavirus (Like South Korea 
> did) when it was offered to us in late January we likely could have prevented 
> the vast majority of the cases we have now because we could have actually 
> tracked exposure.
>
> WHO is far from perfect, but so is the Senate.
>
>

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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Meade Dillon via Mercedes
Forgot to add that in China, ~82,000 cases, ~3300 deaths.
-
Max
Charleston SC


On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 8:32 AM Meade Dillon  wrote:

> Then and now:
>
> H1N1: From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, a study estimated that
> approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304
> hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306)
> occurred in the United States due to pH1N1.
>
> COVID-19 As of today:  ~9400 cases, ~150 deaths.
>
> Plain Old Flu as killed ~20,000 Americans this season, estimated to top
> out around 30,000.
>
> Draw your own conclusions.
> -
> Max
> Charleston SC
>
>
>
>
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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Meade Dillon via Mercedes
Then and now:

H1N1: From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, a study estimated that
approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304
hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306)
occurred in the United States due to pH1N1.

COVID-19 As of today:  ~9400 cases, ~150 deaths.

Plain Old Flu as killed ~20,000 Americans this season, estimated to top out
around 30,000.

Draw your own conclusions.
-
Max
Charleston SC
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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Curley McLain via Mercedes

WHO is as believable as the chicoms.

Meade Dillon via Mercedes wrote on 3/19/20 7:07 AM:

I think that the law / regulations set in place by Congress prevented us
from using any test developed by private industry or outside the US, back
in January.  Hindsight is 20-20.

Remember that in mid-January, WHO was parroting the CHICOM lie that this
virus was not able to be transmitted from human to human.

https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/18/flashback-who-china-coronavirus-contagious/

-
Max
Charleston SC


WHO was telling us 20 years ago that in 20 years we'd all be dead.
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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Curley McLain via Mercedes
CHICOMS ARE SAYING YOUNG healthy people who have been later scanned (Did 
not say ct or mri) show 20% permanent lung damage.   no confirmation 
from other areas.
  I don't see any reason why they would lie about this, but who knows. 
They lie about everything else.


Peter Frederick via Mercedes wrote on 3/19/20 6:11 AM:

4-5% of those infected, so far as the available data goes.  May be lower due to 
lack of complete screening and the fact that infections can be mild enough they 
don't get reported.  Given that Itailians are in general a little healthier 
than US citizens (lower BMI, more exercise, etc) and those things have an 
effect on mortality, the death rate in the US may or may not be higher than 
Italy.

China and S. Korea show very low death rates for young people, but it appears 
that the numbers are higher in Italy (so are total death rates).

Have not heard of the permanent lung damage, but I'd not be surprised.  Makes 
sense that poor condition or underlying health issues cause higher death rates 
if significant lung damage occurs.




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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Meade Dillon via Mercedes
I think that the law / regulations set in place by Congress prevented us
from using any test developed by private industry or outside the US, back
in January.  Hindsight is 20-20.

Remember that in mid-January, WHO was parroting the CHICOM lie that this
virus was not able to be transmitted from human to human.

https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/18/flashback-who-china-coronavirus-contagious/

-
Max
Charleston SC


On Wed, Mar 18, 2020 at 11:29 PM Peter Frederick via Mercedes <
mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:

> Well, if we had used the WHO test for the novel coronavirus (Like South
> Korea did) when it was offered to us in late January we likely could have
> prevented the vast majority of the cases we have now because we could have
> actually tracked exposure.
>
> WHO is far from perfect, but so is the Senate.
>
>
>
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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Meade Dillon via Mercedes
Italy has an older population than the US and much older than South Korea,
and apparently they stay skinny by smoking, there is your explanation for a
higher death rate there.
-
Max
Charleston SC


On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 7:12 AM Peter Frederick via Mercedes <
mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:

> 4-5% of those infected, so far as the available data goes.  May be lower
> due to lack of complete screening and the fact that infections can be mild
> enough they don't get reported.  Given that Itailians are in general a
> little healthier than US citizens (lower BMI, more exercise, etc) and those
> things have an effect on mortality, the death rate in the US may or may not
> be higher than Italy.
>
>
>
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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Peter Frederick via Mercedes
4-5% of those infected, so far as the available data goes.  May be lower due to 
lack of complete screening and the fact that infections can be mild enough they 
don't get reported.  Given that Itailians are in general a little healthier 
than US citizens (lower BMI, more exercise, etc) and those things have an 
effect on mortality, the death rate in the US may or may not be higher than 
Italy.  

China and S. Korea show very low death rates for young people, but it appears 
that the numbers are higher in Italy (so are total death rates).  

Have not heard of the permanent lung damage, but I'd not be surprised.  Makes 
sense that poor condition or underlying health issues cause higher death rates 
if significant lung damage occurs.
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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Scott Ritchey via Mercedes
The key question is 4-5% of what?  The total population?  The number of 
estimated cases? The number that tested positive?  The number sick enough to be 
hospitalized?

I also heard that some young/healthy folks infected but with minimal symptoms 
suffered (permanent?  long term?)lung damage.

> -Original Message-
> From:  Peter Frederick via Mercedes
...
> Death rate in Italy appears to be 4-5% as well


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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-18 Thread Peter Frederick via Mercedes
Well, if we had used the WHO test for the novel coronavirus (Like South Korea 
did) when it was offered to us in late January we likely could have prevented 
the vast majority of the cases we have now because we could have actually 
tracked exposure.

WHO is far from perfect, but so is the Senate.



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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-18 Thread Curley McLain via Mercedes
right.   and the theory is that by having people try to be hermits, we 
can lower the peak numbers and spread the hopital load out over a longer 
time.   Sounds good on paper.   We are old enough to remember when we 
DID have a lot more hospital beds.   Hospitals were closed and torn down 
or converted to other use "Because we don't need so many beds" in the 
80s and 90s. Many towns lost their only hospital.    Like everything 
else, need for hospital beds is cyclical.   The regular flu is 
cyclical.  the death numbers go up over 100% and the next year may be 
only 50% of the peak year.


But lying with statistics is still lying.   We need to cut funding to UN 
and its offspring WHO.   The USA can stand on out own.


Peter Frederick via Mercedes wrote on 3/18/20 9:55 PM:

More to the point, how many people will need hospitalization to survive, and 
for how long.  Doctors in Italy are being forced to decide who gets life saving 
care already, and the case load is still climbing.

At the current rate of increase in caseload in the US we will hit 1.5 million 
infections in about four weeks.  3.5% of that is 51,000 deaths and 200,000 or 
so people in the hospital for more than a week, possibly as many as 700,000.  
We don't have that many hospital beds.

Death rate in Italy appears to be 4-5% as well




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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-18 Thread Peter Frederick via Mercedes
More to the point, how many people will need hospitalization to survive, and 
for how long.  Doctors in Italy are being forced to decide who gets life saving 
care already, and the case load is still climbing.

At the current rate of increase in caseload in the US we will hit 1.5 million 
infections in about four weeks.  3.5% of that is 51,000 deaths and 200,000 or 
so people in the hospital for more than a week, possibly as many as 700,000.  
We don't have that many hospital beds.

Death rate in Italy appears to be 4-5% as well
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Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-18 Thread Andrew Strasfogel via Mercedes
The major point of difference is that millions have resistance through
their flu shots, whereas zero are protected against COVID 19.  If there
were no flu vaccine how many deaths would there be?

On Wed, Mar 18, 2020 at 10:35 PM Curley McLain via Mercedes <
mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:

> I am not discounting the potential severity of the wuhan flu.  At
> the same time there is considerable evidence that the media has over
> hyped the danger.   The article below is an illustration of how to
> lie with statistics.You don't even need to buy Mr. Huff's little
> book.
>
> The controversial Ethiopian politician and Director General of the
> World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, claimed
> in a press conference in early March that the fatality rate for the
> coronavirus was many multiples that of the fatality rate of the
> common flu.
>
> This egregiously false premise has led to the greatest panic in
> world history.
>
> The Director General of the WHO spoke on March 3, 2020 and shared
> this related to the coronavirus:
>
> While many people globally have built up immunity to seasonal flu
> strains, COVID-19 is a new virus to which no one has immunity. That
> means more people are susceptible to infection, and some will suffer
> severe disease.
>
> Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By
> comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those
> infected.
>
> This statement led to the greatest panic in world history as the
> media all over the world shared and repeated that the coronavirus
> was many, many times more deadly than the common flu.
>
> The problem is his statement is false. It was not accurate!
>
> The Gateway Pundit reported yesterday, that the coronavirus fatality
> rate reported by the media was completely inaccurate and the actual
> rate is less than the current seasonal flu – the media was lying
> again. The false reporting of the coronavirus fatality rate of 3.4%
> in the media started with the statements made by the WHO in early
> March.
>
> Take a look at this recent summary that actually proves the Director
> General’s statement was materially false, though you’ll not hear
> mainstream media talking about this at all:
>
> *1. The fatality rate of the coronavirus was based on current data
> available of known positive cases and known deaths.*
>
> Oftentimes estimates have to be made because data is just not yet
> available. The Director General of the World Health Organization
> (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, used the fatality rate of
> coronavirus with known numbers and used this as his prediction of
> eventual mortality rate. This was a faulty assumption. Estimates
> usually involve obtaining information that is available and making
> estimates on what is not. We cannot tell the future but we can make
> educated guesses based on information available. This is what has
> been done with the coronavirus because this type of virus has
> apparently never been seen before.
>
> *2. Sometimes estimates are reasonable and sometimes they are wrong,
> and even way off.*
>
> The point is that whenever estimates are made of large unknown
> values they are always wrong because no one can tell the future.
> Sometimes estimates end up close and sometimes they are not and
> sometimes they are way off.
>
> This is a factor that simply cannot be overstated. There was a massive
> lack of information available at the time when this whole situation
> kicked off. People seem to take every single thing reported by the WHO
> as the absolute, accurate truth without taking other factors into
> consideration.
>
> *3. The current “estimate” for the coronavirus fatality rate
> according to the WHO is about 3.4%.*
>
> The estimate used most often is from the WHO based on the Director
> General’s comments. The WHO estimates the mortality rate of the
> coronavirus to be around 3.4%:
>
> The World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated the mortality
> rate from Covid-19 is about 3.4%. That is higher than seasonal
> flu and is cause for concern – but even if it is correct, more
> than 96% of people who become infected with the coronavirus will
> recover.
>
> *4. The same rate for this year’s seasonal flu is 10% if you use
> known cases and known deaths (but the media tells you it’s .1%).*
>
> As The Gateway Pundit reported earlier, according to CDC numbers, in
> the US in the 2019-2020 flu season, there were 222,552 confirmed
> cases of the flu from testing and an estimated 36 million flu cases
> in the United States. There were 22,000 estimated deaths from the
> flu (via the CDC).
>
>
> ___
> http://www.okiebenz.com
>
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