from:"victor_sperandeo"

Minggu, 21/02/2010 14:07 WIB
Kisah Aliran Dana Bank Century ke Inisiator Hak Angket
Anwar Khumaini - detikNews

Jakarta - Sebagai salah satu inisiator Hak Angket Century, politisi PKS
Muhammad Misbakhun tentunya berharap agar kasus Century diusut secara tuntas.
Tapi yang menjadi persoalan adalah Misbakhun ternyata pernah mengajukan letter
of credit (L/C) ke Bank Century. Bagaimana ceritanya?

Berdasarkan informasi yang detikcom himpun dari berbagai sumber, Minggu
(21/2/2010), aliran dana Bank Century bermula saat bank yang kini telah
berganti nama menjadi Bank Mutiara tersebut memberikan fasilitas utang dagang
kepada 10 debitor senilai US$ 178 juta pada November 2007 dan Oktober 2008.

Salah satu debitor itu adalah PT Selalang Prima Internasional, di mana
Misbhakun menjadi komisaris utamanya. PT Selalang Prima Internasional
mendapatkan fasilitas utang dagang senilai USD 22,5 juta

Sementara 9 debitor lainnya yang mendapatkan fasilitas serupa adalah PT Polymer
Spectrum, PT Trio Irama, PT Petrobas Indonesia, PT Sinar Central Sandang, PT
Dwi Putra Mandiri, PT Damar Kristal Mas, PT Citra Senantiasa Abadi, PT Sakti
Persada Raya, dan PT Energy Quantum.

PT Energy Quantum mendapatkan aliran dana Bank Century USD 19,999, PT Trio
Irama USD 10,999 juta, , PT Petrobas Indonesia USD 4,3 juta , PT Sinar Central
Sandang USD 26,5 juta , PT Citra Senantiasa Abadi USD 19,9 juta, PT Dwi Putra
Mandiri USD 9,999 juta, PT Damar Kristal Mas USD 21,499 juta, dan PT Sakti
Persada Raya USD 23,999 juta.

Bank Century menggandeng beberapa bank untuk dijadikan sebagai mitra yang
bersedia menalangi pembayaran, yakni DBS, Credit Suisse, dan The Saudi National
Commercial Bank. Bank Century menempatkan dana (interbank call money) senilai
US$ 264 juta untuk dijadikan sebagai jaminan kepada 3 bank yang digandeng itu.

Namun yang janggal, terjadi ketidakwajaran dalam poin-poin yang ditulis di
surat utang Bank Century tersebut. Dalam surat utang tersebut, dijelaskan bahwa
importir akan menerima seluruh penyimpangan yang terjadi dalam transaksi.
Menurut sumber di Bank Indonesia (BI), hal ini hanya bisa terjadi bila
eksportir dan importir adalah pihak yang sama. Sehingga muncul dugaan Robert
Tantular otak di balik kedua pihak itu.

Belakangan terungkap enam debitor dipakai namanya oleh Robert untuk membuka
surat utang. Padahal mereka tidak pernah memberikan setoran jaminan, kata
sumber di Bank Indonesia. Seluruh jaminan ternyata ditransfer, lewat sistem
real time gross settlement, dari rekening milik Junty dan Tenety Solikin. Siapa
Junty dan Tenety Solikin? Hingga saat ini kedua nama tersebut masih misteri.

Sementara itu, berdasarkan audit intern Bank Century yang dilakukan Satuan
Kerja Audit Intern (SKAI) pada semester II/2008, juga ditemukan penyimpangan di
bidang treasury dan settlement yang ada hubungannya dengan L/C. Audit itu
menemukan adanya hasil repo surat berharga untuk pelunasan L/C atas nama PT
Selalang Prima International dan Sinar Central Sandang.

Seharusnya hasil penuh repo masuk ke Bank Century, sedangkan persoalan L/C
harus dilunasi masing-masing debitor.

Sampai saat ini L/C yang seharusnya dilunasi masih belum dilunasi, tulis
laporan itu.

Misbhakun hingga kini belum mau berkomentar. Ia menegaskan, persoalan L/C itu
sudah diserahkan pada rekannya di PKS, Fachri Hamzah. Sudah diambil alih sama
Pak Fachri, tanya dia saja, kata Misbhakun saat dihubungi detikcom pagi tadi.

Sementara Fachri Hamzah membenarkan Misbakhun memang pernah mengajukan letter
of credit (L/C) ke Bank Century gagal bayar di Bank Century pada tahun 2007.
Namun itu bukan L/C fiktif.

Nggak ada masalah orang menjadi nasabah Bank Century. Mayoritas nasabah Bank
Century itu kan orang baik, ujar Fachri Hamzah.

http://www.detiknews.com/read/2010/02/21/140717/1303751/10/kisah-aliran-dana-bank-century-ke-inisiator-hak-angket

Re: [ob] Price to Book value saham Bakrie per 4 jan 2010

semua ngumpul di bakrie, akhirnya gak naik2. pilihan yg lain dong plis.



--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, TimurLangit i4...@... wrote:

 Seberapa sering feeling mbah salah?
 
 
 
 On Feb 21, 2010, at 22:13, jsx_consultant jsx-consult...@... wrote:
 
 Kalo melihat Ratio RI UNSP, rasanya ini untuk bikin Retail tidak ikut
 nebus.
  
 Kalo DEWA, terlihat mereka ingin supaya public menebus RInya.
  
 Saham DEWA dan ENRG turun setelah RI. Ini juga SEPERTINYA untuk
 mengconditionkan PERSEPSI public agar public tidak ikut RI UNSP.
  
 Tapi Ini cuman Feeling DOANG kecuali UNSP betul naik setelah RI 
 selesai... 
  
  
  
 
 From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] 
 On Behalf Of Bagus Putra Perdana
 Sent: Sunday, February 21, 2010 9:35 PM
 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
 Subject: Re: [ob] Price to Book value saham Bakrie per 4 jan 2010
 
  
 Tambahan, hindari emnganalogikan UNSP beli Domba Mas dengan analogi BUMI 
 caplok KPC dan Arutmin. KPC dan Arutmin saat dicaplok adalah perusahaan 
 untung dan cash generating dengan prospek masa depan jelas (BHP dan Rio Tinto 
 males aja direcokin mulu ama Pemda). Domba Mas ini revitalisasi aset ebsar 
 yang kondisinya sekarat. analoginya lebih mirip ke Dipasena. hitungan di 
 atas kertas bisa mudah dan IRR besar tapi asumsinya sangat rawan overstated 
 dan tidak mudah untuk mewujudkan turn-aroundnya.
 
 2010/2/21 Bagus Putra Perdana disclosure@...
 Punten embah kalo boleh saya minta dielaborasi secara bandarmologi untuk 
 moves2 BD di emiten ini, karena jujur its out of my grasp. saya jg sempet 
 bingung untuk eksekusi RI ini. its a bet that is either make it Goin Big or 
 Goin Home.
 
 Begini embah, kenapa UNSP tertinggal dibandingkan peersnya?
 
 alasan standar. UNSP hingga Q3 masih cash burn, Profitnya belum pulih meski 
 CPO pulih, beda dengan teman2nya yg memulih seiring dengan pulihnya CPO. ini 
 disebabkan karena beberapa hal antara lain struktur neraca full hutang yang 
 memberatkan dan agresifitas membeli lahan kosong di periode puncak harga 
 lahan. lalu sebenarnya profil tanaman UNSP tidak sebaik yang lain. tapi jujur 
 kalo hanya ini, sebenarnya kisaran fair value UNSP masih bisa solid di
 700-800an.
 
 lalu kenapa sekarang dia main di 500?
 
 ini karena overhang Domba Mas dan Dilusi kepemilikan besar.
 
 Domba Mas ini bet besar embah, tidak kurang pemain dengan posisi kas lebih 
 kuat (Wilmar, Gozco dan Sampoerna Agro) mundur dari bidding Domba Mas di 
 harga yang sekarang disepakati ini. Bank Mandiri juga sudah habis2an injek 
 dan restrukturisasi aset2 domba mas tanpa hasil. Domba mas adalah aset yang 
 belum cash generating dengan kebutuhan komitmen capital tinggi. basically its 
 a Dying Dinosaur.
 
 pre domba mas, UNSP tidak dalam kondisi finansial yang sehat. cenderung cash 
 burn.
 
 Domba Mas ini adalah revitaliasasi aset besar yang kalo diakuisisi berarti 
 harus konsekuen 2 hal ;
 
 1.Ambil alih komitmen kewajiban pada kreditur dan supplier
 2. Persiapan Capital untuk make sure semua bisa runnin hingga operasi secara 
 normal.
 
 ini semua butuh effort dan expertise selain juga modal.
 
 1. Bakrie Sumatera dikenal bukanlah Pemain yang punya Niche dan keunggulan 
 kompetitif di sisi pengelolaan plantation dan efisiensi produksinya.
 2. Model bisnis super-integrasi pada skala sebesar ini belum familiar secara 
 historikal kita lihat data2 dan kesuksesannya.
 
 tidak kurang dari pemain2 lebih besar , lebih sehat dan lebih berpengalaman 
 dari UNSP pada akhirnya mundur. jadi wajar kalo semua investor ambil stance 
 hati2.
 
 Nah ada hal yang lebih bikin semua shareholder mundur. RI dengan jumlah besar 
 dan efek dilusi tinggi, untuk bet yang kemungkinan bisa takes a lot of time 
 to prove it worth the infusion. RInya besar embah, jumlah yang harus disetor 
 agar tidak terdilusi hampir sebesar atau lebih dari jumlah posisi awal yang 
 sudah ada di UNSP. 5 saham baru untuk 2 saham lama. dan bet domba mas kalo 
 berhasil baru akan terbukti 2 tahun lagi minimal. belum tentu gagal tapi 
 butuh waktu dan kesabaran untuk melihat hasilnya. dan jangan lupa, pasca RI 
 supply saham UNSP membanjir. akan susah ngangkat keatas tanpa sokongan 
 katalis dan improvementfundamental.
 
 resiko pegang UNSP saja di sektor CPO adalah melihat kompetitornya tumbuh 
 secara NI dan Free Cash tapi UNSP baru akan tumbuh ketikaRevitalisasi 
 Domba mas mulai efektif. dari harga saat ini kemungkinan turun sudah gak 
 terlalu jauh. tapi risikonya bisa Stuck bertahun-tahun.
 
 untuk RI sendiri, ini dilema juga gak dieksekusi terdilusi signifikan, 
 dieksekusi bakal stuck. pilihannya ibarat Dirampok ato ikut merampok. 
 
 tapi kalo kita pikirkan lagi, kehajarnya UNSP di level sekarang ini saya 
 yakin mainly karena Overhang Domba Mas dan RI. lalu bagaimana kalo kasusnya 
 seperti ini. setelah RI, maka pemegang saham mayoritas atau yang mengeksekusi 
 RI akan memperbesar porsi kepemilikannya secara signifikan. lalu bisa saja

[ob] Lehman Bankruptcy Advisers Paid $641.9 Million in 16 Months

Lehman Bankruptcy Advisers Paid $641.9 Million in 16 Months 
By Linda Sandler

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the investment bank 
liquidating in bankruptcy, paid its lawyers and other advisers $641.9 million 
in 16 months since September 2008, according to a regulatory filing.

The restructuring firm Alvarez  Marsal LLC, which provided Lehman with its 
current chief executive officer, Bryan Marsal, led the payments with $233 
million in fees for interim management through January, according to the 
filing yesterday with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Weil Gotshal  Manges LLP of New York collected $149.5 million for acting as 
the investment bank's lead bankruptcy law firm. Milbank Tweed Hadley  McCloy 
LLP got $42.4 million for advising Lehman's creditors' committee.

Lehman and its affiliates reported cash holdings of $17.6 billion on Jan. 31, 
an increase from $17.2 billion a month earlier.

Lehman, once the world's fourth-biggest investment bank, is liquidating in 
bankruptcy to pay creditors. Its payments to advisers haven't faced major 
challenges such as those in the case of bankrupt automaker Chrysler LLC, which 
is using U.S. Treasury loans to wind itself down.

Lehman filed the biggest U.S. bankruptcy in September 2008 with assets of $639 
billion. Creditors include UBS AG, the New York Giants and Abu Dhabi Investment 
Authority as well as individuals who hold Lehman bonds.

The case is In re Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., 08-13555, U.S. Bankruptcy 
Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).

Re: [ob] Price to Book value saham Bakrie per 4 jan 2010

maklumlah, namanya juga teorisi, pasti beda dong stylenya sama praktisi2 di ob. 
kalau di ob gak butuh golden ways, di sini cuma butuh golden inside information 
hehe.



--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, jsx_consultant jsx-consult...@... 
wrote:

 Banyak orang suka Golden Way Mario tapi embah termasuk yg
 engga suka nonton Mario karena gaya menyampaikan dan mimik mukanya 
 bernuansa sombong 
 
 Istri embah suka nonton Mario dan keranjingan ama omongan
 Mario, jadi kalo TV dipindah ke acara Mario, embah langsung
 berhenti nonton TV. Embah males dengerin orang yg ngajarin
 orang lain dengan gaya merasa lebih pintar dari yang
 diajarin. 
 
 Coba anda Test ini:
 - Perhatikan mimik mukanya sambil mematikan volume suaranya,
   apa PERASAAN anda ?. Jadi anda hanya melihat mukanya tanpa
   mendapat informasi Golden Way ..
 
 
 
 
 --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Bagus Putra Perdana disclosure.inc@ 
 wrote:
 
  Kalo iye ampe begitu yg komen Bang Oma Pak..
  
  2010/2/21 indeksbei3000@
  
  
  
   Kalau Owner UNSP mau manuver seperti itu, ingin tahu Comment Mario Teguh 
   :)
  
   No Bakrie's Stocks, It's Sucks
   --
   *From: * Bagus Putra Perdana disclosure.inc@
   *Date: *Sun, 21 Feb 2010 22:22:43 +0700
   *To: *obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
   *Subject: *Re: [ob] Price to Book value saham Bakrie per 4 jan 2010
  
  
  
   Kalo Setelah RI selesai lalu deal Domba Mas di withdraw. itu hampir pasti
   naik ke 800 lagi Mbah. tapi kalo emang bener owner UNSP mo manuver gitu 
   saya
   No Komen Aja Dah...
  
   2010/2/21 jsx_consultant jsx-consultant@
  
  
  
   Kalo melihat Ratio RI UNSP, rasanya ini untuk bikin Retail tidak ikut
   nebus.
  
   Kalo DEWA, terlihat mereka ingin supaya public menebus RInya.
  
   Saham DEWA dan ENRG turun setelah RI. Ini juga SEPERTINYA untuk
   mengconditionkan PERSEPSI public agar public tidak ikut RI UNSP.
  
   Tapi Ini cuman Feeling DOANG kecuali UNSP betul naik setelah RI
   selesai...
  
  
  
  
--
   *From:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:
   obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] *On Behalf Of *Bagus Putra Perdana
   *Sent:* Sunday, February 21, 2010 9:35 PM
  
   *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
   *Subject:* Re: [ob] Price to Book value saham Bakrie per 4 jan 2010
  
  
  
   Tambahan, hindari emnganalogikan UNSP beli Domba Mas dengan analogi BUMI
   caplok KPC dan Arutmin. KPC dan Arutmin saat dicaplok adalah perusahaan
   untung dan cash generating dengan prospek masa depan jelas (BHP dan Rio
   Tinto males aja direcokin mulu ama Pemda). Domba Mas ini revitalisasi 
   aset
   ebsar yang kondisinya sekarat. analoginya lebih mirip ke Dipasena.
   hitungan di atas kertas bisa mudah dan IRR besar tapi asumsinya sangat 
   rawan
   overstated dan tidak mudah untuk mewujudkan turn-aroundnya.
  
   2010/2/21 Bagus Putra Perdana disclosure.inc@
  
   Punten embah kalo boleh saya minta dielaborasi secara bandarmologi untuk
   moves2 BD di emiten ini, karena jujur its out of my grasp. saya jg 
   sempet
   bingung untuk eksekusi RI ini. its a bet that is either make it Goin 
   Big
   or Goin Home.
  
   Begini embah, kenapa UNSP tertinggal dibandingkan peersnya?
  
   alasan standar. UNSP hingga Q3 masih cash burn, Profitnya belum pulih
   meski CPO pulih, beda dengan teman2nya yg memulih seiring dengan 
   pulihnya
   CPO. ini disebabkan karena beberapa hal antara lain struktur neraca full
   hutang yang memberatkan dan agresifitas membeli lahan kosong di periode
   puncak harga lahan. lalu sebenarnya profil tanaman UNSP tidak sebaik 
   yang
   lain. tapi jujur kalo hanya ini, sebenarnya kisaran fair value UNSP 
   masih
   bisa solid di 700-800an.
  
   lalu kenapa sekarang dia main di 500?
  
   ini karena overhang Domba Mas dan Dilusi kepemilikan besar.
  
   Domba Mas ini bet besar embah, tidak kurang pemain dengan posisi kas
   lebih kuat (Wilmar, Gozco dan Sampoerna Agro) mundur dari bidding Domba 
   Mas
   di harga yang sekarang disepakati ini. Bank Mandiri juga sudah habis2an
   injek dan restrukturisasi aset2 domba mas tanpa hasil. Domba mas adalah 
   aset
   yang belum cash generating dengan kebutuhan komitmen capital tinggi.
   basically its a Dying Dinosaur.
  
   pre domba mas, UNSP tidak dalam kondisi finansial yang sehat. cenderung
   cash burn.
  
   Domba Mas ini adalah revitaliasasi aset besar yang kalo diakuisisi
   berarti harus konsekuen 2 hal ;
  
   1.Ambil alih komitmen kewajiban pada kreditur dan supplier
   2. Persiapan Capital untuk make sure semua bisa runnin hingga operasi
   secara normal.
  
   ini semua butuh effort dan expertise selain juga modal.
  
   1. Bakrie Sumatera dikenal bukanlah Pemain yang punya Niche dan
   keunggulan kompetitif di sisi pengelolaan plantation dan efisiensi
   produksinya.
   2. Model bisnis super-integrasi pada skala sebesar ini belum familiar
   secara historikal kita lihat data2 dan kesuksesannya.
  
   tidak kurang dari pemain2

[ob] Indonesian Banking Probe Winding Down

2010-02-19 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Indonesian Banking Probe Winding Down
Saturday, 20 February 2010


It's down to Bakrie and the President now, say insiders

With the deadline nearing for a fractious and politically motivated 
investigation into a massive and controversial 2008 bank bailout to end, 
Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono seems to finally be taking the 
reins and using his influence to bring the proceeding to a middle-ground 
conclusion.

Political insiders say Yudhoyono is moving to shore up his cabinet and face 
down a challenge from powerful tycoon and Golkar Party chief Aburizal Bakrie, 
who has been using the investigation to try and oust reform-minded Finance 
Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati.

At stake are the reform credentials of Yudhoyono's government, which has been 
nearly paralyzed by the probe into the $700 million rescue of Bank Century. The 
House of Representatives launched the special investigation in December, 
shortly after Yudhoyono was inaugurated for a second-five year term.

Critics in the House committee have said that Sri Mulyani and Vice President 
Boediono, who was central bank governor at the time of the bailout, were guilty 
of providing the lifeline illegally. The two have stood firm, saying the action 
was necessary to save the banking system from risk during the global economic 
crisis.

Century itself, which is now called Bank Mutiara, was looted by crooked owners, 
some of whom are now in jail on fraud charges while others are in hiding abroad.

On Thursday, Boediono's spokesman, Yopie Hidayat, said that that he was 
optimistic that the final results of the probe would be favorable to us.

I am sure the president will do whatever he can do to solve this politically, 
Yopie said. Because this is not a legal problem, it is political. And we have 
confidence in the president.

The Jakarta Globe reported Thursday that Yudhoyono canceled a trip out of town 
scheduled for this week and has bunkered with his key advisers and confidantes 
in Jakarta ahead of the expected release of the committee's findings next week.

Jakarta sources say that Bakrie may have overplayed his hand when he publicly 
threatened the president's political party over the probe. As talk swirled last 
week of a move by the Democratic Party to oust Golkar from an increasingly 
frayed ruling coalition, Bakrie grew visibly angry.

[The Democrats] are not the president, Bakrie said during a high-profile 
visit to the House chambers last week. Every party has an equal position and 
it was written in the coalition agreement. We can't threaten each other. I 
never threaten others, so don't ever try to threaten me.

Following Bakrie's outburst, Golkar lawmakers and their allies on the committee 
began taking reporters aside and insisting they had hard evidence that 
Yudhoyono and his party had fraudulently used Bank Century bailout funds to 
finance last year's presidential campaign.

But on Tuesday this week, the parties on the House committee all said they 
could find no such evidence in what they called a preliminary finding. The 
conciliatory language seemed to presage a climb down for all sides.

In reality, of course, there has been no meaningful investigation. The entire 
House proceeding has been a political tug of war as Golkar and several other 
parties nominally allied with Yudhoyono sought to push the envelope in hopes of 
getting the finance minister and the vice president to walk the plank.

Apparently they finally went too far even for Yudhoyono, who is famously both 
indecisive and patient.
Bakrie's threat was too much, said one seasoned analyst with access to the 
presidential palace.
With Bakrie's far-ranging companies dependent on government contracts and 
constant financial deals subject to regulatory scrutiny, the analyst said, the 
tycoon is vulnerable.

While stopping short of saying that Bakrie has been warned by the president, 
the analyst said that the tycoon could easily find his financial transactions 
delayed by financial regulators. Deals the Bakrie Group, which is involved in 
construction, mining, plantations and numerous other businesses, has for 
lucrative service contracts with state-owned enterprises might be put on 
hold, the analyst said.

Bakrie is already facing several tax cases that the president has said must be 
settled. Sri Mulyani oversees tax collections and it is widely believed that 
her aggressive approach to tax policy is behind Bakrie's intense desire to get 
her out of the government.

In the past, Bakrie is presumed to have done many favors for Yudhoyono and to 
have helped finance his political rise. When he took control of Golkar late 
last year after the party unsuccessfully challenged the president at the polls, 
Bakrie brought it back into the ruling fold, perhaps because he thought he 
could dictate terms to Yudhoyono.

The president thinks they are now even, said one source referring to Bakrie. 
He noted that the government had acted to deflect Bakrie from having to

[ob] Feds Bernanke to Assure Congress Higher Rates Not Imminent

2010-02-19 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Fed's Bernanke to Assure Congress Higher Rates Not Imminent
By Craig Torres and Jerry Hart

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will
probably assure Congress that the central bank is mindful of the lack of
job growth in the U.S. and an increase in the benchmark interest rate
isn't imminent after the Fed's decision to raise the cost of
direct loans to banks.

The Fed chief will deliver his semi-annual report on the economy and
interest rates to House and Senate panels Feb. 24- 25. Fed officials
last month forecast growth of 2.8 percent to 3.5 percent this year, and
minutes of their January meeting showed they are seeking more evidence
the recovery is sustainable.

New York Fed President William Dudley indicated yesterday that policy
makers need to focus now on maintaining growth rather than fighting
inflation, citing a smaller-than-forecast increase in the consumer-price
index for January reported by the Labor Department. Another measure of
prices, which excludes energy and food, dropped for the first time since
1982.

Monetary policy is about the economy, Dudley, a voting member
of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, told reporters after
a speech in San Juan, Puerto Rico. We need to see solid growth and
job creation.

Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in January from December, and so-called
core prices unexpectedly fell 0.1 percent. The report showed
there's no inflation pressure, Dudley said. So our focus
needs to be on growth and jobs.

The Fed on Feb. 18 said its decision to increase the discount rate by a
quarter-point to 0.75 percent represented a normalization of
lending rather than a change in policy. Officials also repeated that
economic conditions warrant low levels in the federal funds rate
for an extended period.

That's a phrase Bernanke is likely to repeat to lawmakers next week,
said Ethan Harris, head of economics for North America at Bank of
America Merrill Lynch.

`Real Healing'

He is going to say it over and over again, Harris said.
Fed tightening doesn't happen until there is real healing in
the job market, and the job market hasn't even turned positive.

U.S. stocks erased losses yesterday after the consumer- price report
eased concern that the Fed will need to raise its benchmark rate to
fight inflation.

The Standard  Poor's 500 Index rose 0.2 percent to close at
1,109.17 in New York after earlier declining as much as 0.5 percent. The
Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1 percent to 10,402.35.

The Fed is aware of the risk of higher inflation, said Dan
Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak  Co. LLC in New
York. But that concern is counter-balanced by the belief that the
unemployment rate is likely to stay high for 2010.

Exaggerated Expectations

Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said expectations for a
rate increase were exaggerated.

The idea that's in markets that there's a high probability
that we'll raise rates later this year is overblown, Bullard
said in response to audience questions after a speech in Memphis,
Tennessee Feb. 18. There's also some probability, maybe more,
that this will extend into 2011.

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart told a Georgia business audience
the same day that policy remains accommodative. Fed Governor
Elizabeth Duke, speaking in Norfolk, Virginia, said the steps do
not signal any change in the outlook for monetary policy.

In a press release accompanying the discount rate increase, the
56-year-old Fed chairman and his colleagues at the Board of Governors
took care to say the outlook for monetary policy remains about as
it was when the FOMC met in January.

`Downside Risks'

Minutes of the January meeting reflect Dudley's comments that the
world's largest economy, while improving, still faces some
significant downside risks.

Business contacts expressed great reluctance to build inventories,
increase payrolls, and expand capacity, the minutes said. Officials
forecast average unemployment of 9.5 percent to 9.7 percent in the final
three months of the year, little improvement from the current 9.7
percent rate.

Dudley repeated that increasing the discount rate is the central
bank's last step in ending emergency liquidity for markets and not a
signal the Fed is prepared to tighten credit.

Think of this as the last adjustment tied to the end of all the
liquidity facilities, Dudley told reporters. Think of this as
the last piece of that package, rather than the first piece of a new
package.

Emergency Facilities

U.S. central bankers closed four emergency lending facilities this month
and are preparing to reverse or neutralize the more than $1 trillion in
excess bank reserves they have pumped into the banking system. The
discount-rate increase will encourage banks to borrow in private markets
rather than from the Fed, the statement said.

Before August 2007, the discount rate was set at one percentage point
above the federal funds rate. As subprime mortgage defaults began to
ripple

[ob] Stiglitz: Washington Should Stop Worrying, U.S. Has No Problem Paying Off Its

2010-02-18 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Stiglitz: Washington Should Stop Worrying, U.S. Has No Problem Paying Off Its 
Debts
Posted Feb 18, 2010 08:11am EST by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Newsmakers, 
Recession, Banking, Politics, China

President Obama is taking matters in his own hands when it comes to paying down 
the deficit.  The President is set to sign an executive order Thursday 
establishing a bipartisan panel to tackle the deficit; a month after Congress 
rejected the idea.

The deficit is projected to reach $1.6 trillion this year.  Yet, Nobel 
Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz is not concerned. The United States 
has absolutely no real problem servicing the debt at the current level, he 
tells Tech Ticker.

Instead of focusing on the record debt, he's worried the new panel's actions 
may yield excessive short-sided behavior.  The author of Freefall: America, 
Free Markets, and the Sinking of the World Economy, believes the current 
deficit fetishism sweeping through politics is potentially dangerous and flat 
out wrong.

He explains to Henry in the accompanying clip, there's an unfair double 
standard in the marketplace.  Unlike corporations, who are often encouraged to 
raise debt, when it comes to our sovereign debt the market only focuses on 
one-side of the balance sheet, ignoring the potential revenue to come.

If (and this might be a big 'if') the U.S. uses the debt to make smart 
investments in education, technology and infrastructure, Stiglitz says the 
long run national debt will be lower. According to his calculations, a simple 
5%-6% return on these investments will easily pay for themselves and increase 
our competitive advantage in the future.

[ob] Paulson Buys, Buffett Sells in Duel on SunTrust Banks

2010-02-17 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Paulson Buys, Buffett Sells in Duel on SunTrust Banks (Update1)
By David Mildenberg

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- John Paulson, who amassed a fortune by betting against 
U.S. mortgage markets, became the biggest stakeholder in SunTrust Banks Inc. 
while fellow billionaire Warren Buffett was cutting his stake in the Atlanta 
lender.

Paulson  Co., the New York-based hedge fund, boosted its ownership to 6.1 
percent of SunTrust's shares, federal filings showed yesterday. That gives his 
firm about 30.4 million SunTrust shares as of Dec. 31, an increase from 1.5 
million on Sept. 30. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. reduced its SunTrust 
holdings by 22 percent to 2.4 million shares.

After making billions by foreseeing the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market in 
2007 and 2008, Paulson placed bets last year on some of the banks hit hardest 
by slumping home prices, including Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and 
Wells Fargo  Co. SunTrust posted a $1.56 billion loss for 2009 as loans soured 
in the Southeast. Paulson also slashed holdings of Regions Financial Corp., a 
SunTrust rival.

Paulson's purchases are probably more significant than Berkshire's sales 
because of his more narrow focus on financial stocks, said Terrence McEvoy, a 
banking analyst at Oppenheimer  Co. in Portland, Maine who has an outperform 
rating on SunTrust. Buffett is a phenomenal investor, obviously, but he 
invests in many different sectors.

SunTrust represents about 3.1 percent of the $19.8 billion of holdings 
disclosed by Paulson in yesterday's federal filings; his firm manages about $32 
billion overall. The bank has been reduced to less than half a percent of 
Berkshire's portfolio, based on filings by Buffett's Omaha, Nebraska-based firm.

Bank of America

SunTrust gained about 12 percent since the end of the fourth quarter, while 
Regions advanced more than 22 percent. Bank of America rose about 2 percent, 
while Citigroup and Wells Fargo dropped by the same amount. In today's trading, 
SunTrust was little changed at 10:14 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite 
transactions. Regions fell 1.4 percent to $6.53.

Bank of America was the second-largest U.S. housing lender last year, edged out 
of first place by Wells Fargo. It remains the biggest by assets and deposits, 
and the second-biggest holding for Paulson valued at about $2.27 billion, based 
on the filing. The fund manager told investors in his newsletter last November 
that Bank of America's shares may rise to $29.81 by the end of 2011 as loan 
write-offs ease.

Paulson owned 151 million shares of Bank of America at the end of the year, or 
1.7 percent, after selling 8.7 million shares during the fourth quarter, his 
filing showed. Berkshire reported holdings of about 5 million shares last year.

Wells Fargo

As for Wells Fargo, Paulson bought 17.5 million shares of the San 
Francisco-based bank, according to the filing. That's not enough to dethrone 
Buffett as the biggest investor; he added more than 6 million shares to 
Berkshire's stake during the quarter and now owns about 320 million, or more 
than 6 percent.

Last May, Buffett praised Wells Fargo because it has a dramatically different 
business model than its competitors.

Paulson also increased its stake in Citigroup to about $506.7 million shares 
from 300 million at the end of the third quarter, filings show. Other buyers 
included David Tepper, who runs one of last year's top-performing hedge funds, 
and billionaire George Soros, separate filings showed.

When you look at the list of Buffett's banks, almost everybody has a sterling 
shine, said Jaime Peters, analyst at Morningstar Inc. By contrast, Paulson 
sold one troubled bank to buy another. Both banks are well-capitalized 
according to U.S. standards, he said.

Fairholme's Purchases

Regions and SunTrust have been hobbled by losses stemming from loans to 
developers in Florida and Georgia, where housing price declines and the 
unemployment rate are among the highest in the U.S. Paulson's stake in Regions 
declined to 19 million shares from 35 million during the quarter, filings 
showed. Regions has its headquarters in Birmingham, Alabama, where it's the 
biggest bank based in the state.

While Paulson sold Regions shares, Fairholme Capital Management LLC reported a 
43.4 million stake, or 3.7 percent. The fund also bought more than 214 million 
shares of Citigroup. Fairholme is led by Bruce Berkowitz, named Morningstar's 
mutual fund manager of the decade for his $11.2 billion Fairholme Fund.

Paulson spokesman Armel Leslie, SunTrust'S Barry Koling and Tim Deighton at 
Regions declined comment. Buffett didn't respond to a request for comment sent 
to an assistant after normal business hours yesterday.

[ob] Soros More Than Doubled Gold ETF Stake in 4th Quarter

2010-02-17 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Soros More Than Doubled Gold ETF Stake in 4th Quarter (Update1)
By Katherine Burton and Glenys Sim

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire George Soros's Soros Fund Management LLC 
more than doubled its holding in the biggest gold exchange-traded fund in the 
fourth quarter after bullion advanced 8.9 percent to a record.

The $25 billion New York-based firm became the fourth- largest holder in the 
SPDR Gold Trust, adding 3.728 million shares valued at $421 million, according 
to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission yesterday. Its 
investment was worth about $663 million, the fund's largest single investment, 
as of Dec. 31.

Soros joined China Investment Corp. and central banks including those in China 
and India in acquiring gold. China Investment, the $300 billion sovereign 
wealth fund based in Beijing, took a 1.45 million-share stake in the SPDR Gold 
Trust worth $155.6 million, according to a SEC 13F filing posted on Feb. 5.

The dollar is weak and people are just shifting their money into a safer 
haven, Tetsuya Yoshii, vice president for derivative products at Mizuho 
Corporate Bank Ltd., said from Tokyo today. Central banks are adding gold to 
their reserves and we're going to see more people adding gold to their 
investment portfolio as they shift into safer stuff.

Gold for immediate delivery traded little changed at $1,118.35 an ounce at 2:48 
p.m. in Singapore. It rose for a ninth straight year in 2009, reaching a record 
$1,226.56 an ounce on Dec. 3, as the dollar dropped 4.2 percent against a 
basket of six major currencies.

`Ultimate Bubble'

India bought 200 metric tons from the International Monetary Fund in October, 
while China's holdings have expanded 76 percent to 1,054 tons since 2003, it 
said in April.

SEC filings are done quarterly, with a 45-day lag, so Soros could have sold 
some or all of the position since then. Soros, speaking last month at the World 
Economic Forum in Davos, called gold the ultimate asset bubble and said the 
price could tumble, according to a report in the U.K.'s Daily Telegraph 
newspaper.

Money managers who oversee more than $100 million in equities must file a Form 
13F listing their U.S.-traded stocks, options and convertible bonds. The 
filings don't show non-U.S. securities or how much cash the firms hold.

Michael Vachon, a spokesman for Soros, declined to comment on Soros's 
investments.

Assets held by the SPDR Gold Trust have expanded 2.2 percent this year after 
surging 24 percent in 2009. They stood at 1,109.42 metric tons yesterday.

Institutional investor Paulson  Co. held the largest number of shares in the 
fund as of Dec. 31, with 8.65 percent, or 31.5 million shares.

Gold demand grew 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three 
months as investment and jewelry consumption climbed amid record prices, the 
World Gold Council said in a report today. Global consumption increased to 
819.7 metric tons as prices averaged 15 percent more than the third quarter, 
the London-based industry group said.

[ob] Re: MUST READ: Prospek Saham Indonesia Investasi Global 2010 UBI Weekly New....

2010-02-15 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

all these good news remain only news unless there's a strong leadership from 
market makers. until then, take profit is not a sin and cut loss is not a shame.



--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, jsx_consultant jsx-consult...@... 
wrote:

 Sebuah OUTLOOK tentang prospek pasar modal Indonesia dan Dunia
 dari pak ANDRI ZAKARIAS SIREGAR...
 
 A MUST READ ITEM  untuk memberikan gambaran prospek
 Investasi pada tahun 2010...
 
 Thanks A LOT pak Siregar
 
 
 
 --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, andri zakarias a_zakarias@ wrote:
 
  Dear All Readers,
  
  Happy Chinesse New Year 2561. Gong XI Fat Cai. May All of You who celebrate 
  it a Good Luck, Prosperous  Success.
  
  
  Regards
  
  
  
  Andri Zakarias Siregar
  Market Analyst PT Universal Broker Indonesia Securities Indonesia (TF)

[ob] Bakrie Brothers Jajaki Pendanaan dari Timur Tengah

2010-02-15 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Senin, 15/02/2010 18:45 WIB
Bakrie Brothers Jajaki Pendanaan dari Timur Tengah
Nurul Qomariyah - detikFinance

Jakarta - PT Bakrie and Brothers Tbk (BNBR) tengah menjajaki pendanaan dari 
investor Timur Tengah yang ingin menanamkan modal di sektor infrastruktur di 
Asia Tenggara.

Lesunya perekonomian kawasan Teluk menyebabkan para investor tersebut mencari 
kesempatan investasi di wilayah yang menjanjikan pertumbuhan yang lebih baik, 
seperti Indonesia.

Hal tersebut disampaikan Managing Director sekaligus Chief Executive Officer 
(CEO) BNBR, Bobby Gafur Umar yang sedang berada di Dubai, seperti disampaikan 
dalam siaran persnya, Senin (15/2/2010).

BNBR merespons minat serius sejumlah investor Timur Tengah untuk menanamkan 
modalnya di sektor infrastruktur, khususnya pipanisasi migas, pembangkit 
listrik dan jalan tol. Sektor ini dipilih oleh para investor karena profil 
pendapatan sektor infrastruktur relatif stabil dan berulang, jelasnya.

Sementara Chief Financial Officer BNBR, Eddy Soeparno menambahkan, pihaknya 
memang melakukan pembahasan dengan investor swasta dan sebuah sovereign fund di 
kawasan Teluk yang bermaksud melakukan investasi di wilayah yang menjanjikan 
pertumbuhan baik, seperti Indonesia.

Investor Timur Tengah dan kawasan Teluk khususnya, melirik ke Asia Tenggara 
mengingat sebagian besar investasi mereka di kawasan Teluk saat ini tidak 
berkembang dengan memuaskan, jelasnya.

Bobby menambahkan, pihaknya berharap bisa mendapatkan hasil yang konkret dari 
hasil pembicaraan tersebut dalam beberapa bulan ke depan.

BNBR secara serius menjajaki berbagai peluang usaha dan pendanaan yang 
ditawarkan kepada kami, khususnya jika pendanaan tersebut ditujukan untuk 
pengembangan proyek-proyek investasi BNBR yang saat ini menjadi salah satu 
fokus utama kelompok usaha Bakrie, ujar Bobby.

Kelompok usaha Bakrie memang sedang getol mengincar proyek infrastruktur. 
Setelah peresmian tol Kanci-Pejagan oleh Bakrie Toll Road pada akhir Januari 
lalu, dalam waktu dekat BNBR akan menandatangani Perjanjian Pengusahaan Jalan 
Tol (PPJT) bersama konsorsium jalan tol Cimanggis-Cibitung.

Selain jalan tol, BNBR tetap fokus pada proyek-proyek infrastruktur lain 
seperti pipanisasi gas dan pembangkit listrik. Bobby dan Eddy saat ini berada 
di Dubai bertemu dengan berbagai investor dari Timur Tengah dan kawasan Teluk.

[ob] Production, Home Starts Probably Climbed: U.S. Economy Preview

2010-02-14 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Production, Home Starts Probably Climbed: U.S. Economy Preview

Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The manufacturing rebound probably accelerated in 
January and homebuilding bounced back, adding to evidence the U.S. expansion 
began the new year without missing a beat, economists said before report this 
week.

Production climbed 0.8 percent last month, the biggest gain since August, 
according to the median estimate of 65 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News 
ahead of a Federal Reserve report Feb. 17. Builders may have broken ground on 
580,000 houses at an annual pace, up 4.1 percent from December when 
colder-than- average temperatures depressed construction.

The upswing in manufacturing is gaining traction, said John Herrmann, chief 
economist at Herrmann Forecasting in Summit, New Jersey. We're seeing 
extremely strong export demand, an inventory cycle that is lifting output and 
replacement of high-tech products.

Gains in spending on new equipment will probably be sustained this year as 
companies aim to edge out the competition and take advantage of the 
strengthening economy. Combined with growing demand from overseas and efforts 
to replenish stockpiles following the biggest reduction on record may ensure 
that factories will keep expanding and hiring in coming months.

Cisco Systems Inc., the biggest maker of networking equipment, is among 
companies planning to hire. The San Jose, California-based firm this month 
predicted sales will accelerate and said it will boost its workforce by as much 
as 3,000 as customers resume spending to deal with surging data traffic.

`Better' Momentum

Almost every country is saying their momentum is better than it was before, 
and almost every business is saying it's more optimistic, Chief Executive 
Officer John Chambers, 60, said in a Feb. 4 interview. It shows a capital 
spending trend that's hard to deny, on a global basis.

Eaton Corp., the maker of hydraulics and automotive valves, is seeing demand 
increase in its auto and trucks unit, as is typical early in an economic cycle, 
Chief Executive Officer Sandy Cutler said last week in an interview from 
company headquarters in Cleveland.

The company forecasts it will capture about $1 billion in stimulus funds as the 
federal government rebuilds housing on military bases and aims to improve 
efficiency in federal buildings. The Obama administration's $787 billion 
stimulus program is boosting infrastructure and green energy spending, and the 
government says it has funded as many as 2 million jobs.

The Standard  Poor's Supercomposite Machinery Index, which includes companies 
such as Eaton and Caterpillar Inc., has dropped 1.4 percent so far this year, 
outperforming the broader SP 500 Index, which is down 3.6 percent.

Factory Surveys

Private surveys have also signaled manufacturing is recovering. The Institute 
for Supply Management's factory index in January showed the fastest pace of 
expansion since 2004.

Efforts to stabilize inventories accounted for 3.4 percentage points of the 
fourth quarter's 5.7 percent pace of economic growth, according to figures from 
the Commerce Department.

Factories are also benefiting from rising exports as global demand recovers 
after the worst slump since World War II ended. A 10 percent drop in the value 
of the dollar from a four-year high on March 3 against its major trading 
partners is making American goods more competitive. Exports have risen for 
eight consecutive months since reaching a three-year low in April.

A report from the Commerce Department on Feb. 17 may show housing starts rose 
last month after dropping 4 percent in December. The extension in November of a 
first-time buyers' tax credit and its expansion to include current homeowners 
may push housing demand up in the first half of the year.

Improving Outlook

In a sign the recovery has staying power, the Conference Board's index of 
leading economic indicators for January may show a gain of 0.5 percent, 
according to the median estimate of economists surveyed before the Feb. 18 
report. It would be the 10th consecutive increase in the gauge of the economy's 
performance over the next three to six months.

Reflecting slowing job losses, the Labor Department may report on Feb. 18 that 
initial jobless claims last week fell to 430,000, the fewest since July 2008, 
from 440,000 the prior week, according to forecasts.

Consumer prices, due Feb. 19, may show the cost of living rose 0.3 percent in 
January, according to the median of economists' forecasts, following a 0.1 
percent gain the prior month. Excluding food and fuel, prices probably rose 0.1 
percent for a second month, the Labor Department's report may show.

Wholesale prices, due Feb. 18, probably rose 0.8 percent, while prices paid for 
imported goods, released the day before, may have increased 1 percent, 
according to the median estimate of economists surveyed.

Reports from the New York Fed on Feb. 16 and the Philadelphia Fed two days 
later

[ob] Re: Dow kembali ke bawah 10000 ???

Stocks fall as China forces banks to increase reserves for second time in past 
month

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-fall-as-China-hikes-apf-985550292.html?x=0sec=topStoriespos=mainasset=ccode=

[ob] Re: Mungkin Ini Beritanya

mungkinkah win-win solutionnya begini:
- sri mulyani jadi gubernur bi
- anggito (yg kabarnya didukung ical) jadi menkeu
- pansus century rekomendasinya in favor of pemerintah
- tax evasion bakrie selesai dgn sendirinya



--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Irwan Napitupulu irwannapitup...@... 
wrote:

 Mungkin ini beritanya yg bikin jadi rame lagi :)
 
 http://www.detiknews.com/read/2010/02/12/115047/1298224/10/pd-pertemuan-golkar-sby-langkah-positif
 
 http://www.detiknews.com/read/2010/02/12/142251/1298354/10/istana-enggan-konfirmasi-pertemuan-sby-golkar?991101605
 
 Kalau sampai hasil akhir pada rukun2 saja, kira2 sendiri deh harganya
 pada mau kemana saja. Begitu juga sebaliknya, kalau hasil akhir ngga
 rukun, ya dihitung2 saja harganya mau sampai berapa :)
 
 IAN

[ob] Re: Mungkin Ini Beritanya

dari beberapa kesimpulan pansus yg mengerucut, salah satunya adalah adanya 
kelemahan (penyimpangan) pengawasan bi. seorang reformis seperti sri mulyani di 
posisi gubernur bi rasanya kesepakatan yg terbaik untuk semua.



--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, D0N Qicot o5ana_indone...@... wrote:

 SM ngak mau kalau di geser jadi Gub. BI
 mendingan dia mundur sekalian...kalau di geser ke BI, berarti SM mengakui 
 kesalahannya, 
 padahal dia sudah menyelamatkan kondisi ekonomi Indonesia saat itu.
 
 
 emang gue cewe apaan katanya..
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 regards,
 
 
 DonQicot
 UNTR gowes ke NoBan !!
 
 
 
 
 
 From: victor_sperandeo victor_speran...@...
 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
 Sent: Fri, February 12, 2010 11:48:58 PM
 Subject: [ob] Re: Mungkin Ini Beritanya
 
   
 mungkinkah win-win solutionnya begini:
 - sri mulyani jadi gubernur bi
 - anggito (yg kabarnya didukung ical) jadi menkeu
 - pansus century rekomendasinya in favor of pemerintah
 - tax evasion bakrie selesai dgn sendirinya
 
 --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, Irwan Napitupulu irwannapitupulu@ 
 ... wrote:
 
  Mungkin ini beritanya yg bikin jadi rame lagi :)
  
  http://www.detiknews.com/read/2010/02/12/115047/1298224/10/pd-pertemuan-golkar-sby-langkah-positif
  
  http://www.detiknews.com/read/2010/02/12/142251/1298354/10/istana-enggan-konfirmasi-pertemuan-sby-golkar?991101605
  
  Kalau sampai hasil akhir pada rukun2 saja, kira2 sendiri deh harganya
  pada mau kemana saja. Begitu juga sebaliknya, kalau hasil akhir ngga
  rukun, ya dihitung2 saja harganya mau sampai berapa :)
  
  IAN

[ob] Re: Dow kembali ke bawah 10000 ???

dow liar banget. sempat down 160 points, sekarang minus 44.


--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, victor_sperandeo 
victor_speran...@... wrote:

 Stocks fall as China forces banks to increase reserves for second time in 
 past month
 
 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-fall-as-China-hikes-apf-985550292.html?x=0sec=topStoriespos=mainasset=ccode=

[ob] Suharto's legacy of big money

Suharto's legacy of big money
HAMISH MACDONALD
February 13, 2010

The blow-out started nearly four years ago as a gas drilling rig bored
down into the lush landscape of rice paddies and villages near Sidoarjo
in Java. Grey toxic mud, scalding hot, spewed from the ground.
It's kept coming ever since, covering more than 800 hectares of farmland
and 12 villages, displacing 42,000 people and requiring a major highway
to be diverted. Already the damage is put at nearly $5.5 billion. The
land is subsiding, in the beginning of what could be a volcano-like
caldera. The mud could flow for decades more.

The drilling company involved, Lapindo Brantas, is owned by the Bakrie
Brothers group, which is in turn controlled by one of Indonesia's
richest and most powerful men, Aburizal Bakrie, a businessman and
politician combined who at the time was the minister for social welfare.

Bakrie has kept well away from Sidoarjo, and his company has tried to
blame an earthquake 300 kilometres away in Yogyakarta, two days earlier,
for the start of the eruption. As lawsuits and political campaigns
closed in for compensation, his business group has also tried to sell
off Lapindo Brantas to tax-haven companies but has been blocked by
Jakarta authorities.

Like the toxic mud welling from beneath Java, Indonesia's fledgling
democracy is struggling with a legacy of the 1966-98 Suharto
dictatorship whose danger is often overlooked. While many analysts focus
on the resistance of the military to reform, the power of the big
capitalists fostered by Suharto is also important, especially if the two
elements combine.

Several of the big Suharto-era business groups have lowered their
profile and diversified out of Indonesia since 1998. But generally,
reform has been gentle with them in terms of bailouts and loans from
state banks. At least two, Bakrie and James Riady, remain deeply and
prominently involved in public life.

After last year's elections, Bakrie moved up to take over leadership of
the former Suharto regime political party Golkar from former vice
president Jusuf Kalla. He has kept the party in alliance with President
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's small Democratic Party, providing much needed
legislative support.

But that support is coming at a high political price. Bakrie is now
widely seen as masterminding the attack on Yudhoyono's two most
important cabinet members for cleaning up Indonesia's corrupt
government, financial and judicial systems. These are the Finance
Minister, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, and the current Vice President,
Boediono.

Never mind that Bakrie got government bailouts after the Asian financial
crisis that eventually brought Suharto down, or that several of his
companies are under investigation as tax defaulters. He and his allies
in the parliament are trying to bring down either Sri Mulyani or
Boediono or both over a contentious bank bailout in 2008.

This was the rescue of Bank Century, a medium-sized private sector
outfit that got into trouble as the global financial crisis hit. Sri
Mulyani was the chief financial minister at the time, and Boediono the
governor of the central bank which eventually put 7 trillion rupiah
($800 million) into a bailout.

The two officials insist the rescue was to prevent contagion that could
have swept the entire banking system. But it has emerged that Bank
Century's main shareholder was siphoning bank funds away to Hong Kong,
and as fast as the central bank injected funds, several big depositors
with political clout were withdrawing their money.

Bakrie is using this case to shake Sri Mulyani and her tax officials off
the back of his companies, it appears. But getting her sacked would
cause a disastrous crisis of confidence in financial circles, so
Boediono may be the first target. Replacing him with someone with a less
rigorous grasp of economics, like the current co-ordinating minister for
economic affairs Hatta Rajasa, would deprive her of crucial support.

This week's murder conviction of the former head of Jakarta's
anti-corruption agency, Antasari Azhar, after a farcical conspiracy case
was put before a court, on top of the early release of Suharto's son
Tommy Mandala Putra from his jail sentence for the murder of a judge and
his return to Golkar politics, shows the weakness of institutions in the
face of big money.

Even the strongest democracies in Asia have struggled at times with the
power of big capital. In India, the Birlas and the Ambanis have at times
been seen as calling the shots in New Delhi. In Japan, Prime Minister
Yukio Hatoyama is having to explain how he didn't notice his mother,
heiress to the Bridgestone tyre fortune, slipping some $10 million of
unreported pocket money into his campaign funds.

In the newer democracies, big money can create systemic risk. Look at
Thailand: the rise, fall and attempted return of telecom tycoon Thaksin
Shinawatra has turned a country that seemed a stable, democratic
constitutional monarchy and regional security pillar into a

[ob] Happy Time akan berlanjut....Re: KLBF TINS + 5%

2010-02-11 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

kalau masih banyak yg optimis sama b7 biasanya sih malah turun.
tapi gak tau juga besok, soalnya dow fut ijo lumayan tuh.



--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, datasahamku datasaha...@... wrote:

 coba jawab ya Mbah,
 
 dengan BUMI -1% maka ongkos buat naikin IHSG jadi murah  bisa bikin LQ45 
 naik so BD bisa lancar jaya jualan siomay-nya...beda klo si BEJO dah NAIK 
 duluan, ongkosnya jadi mahal buat ngangkat LQ45 padahal mesti buru2 jualan 
 siomay sebelum Kamtib DJI wave C yang galak dateng..
 
 jadi strateginya masih: buy B7 Sell siomay eh IHSG :), gitu khan Mbah?
 
 soal DH yg beli segede bagong cara BOHONG-nya setelah BUY dia keluar pakai 
 broker lainklo barang di custodian sih bisa masuk pakai broker asiong 
 tapi pas kabur pakai broker asing...klo ga salah lho hehehe...maklum bukan 
 BD..tapi make sense sih...jadi BD hanya rugi fee aja
   
 
 
 --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, jsx_consultant jsx-consultant@ 
 wrote:
 
  Embah engga selalu bisa prediksi kalo engga nemu yg aneh2,
  kalo kemaren kan DH bikin yg ANEH
  
  Tapi kalo melihat POSISI:
  - BUMI -1% dan IHSG +24 maka Happy Time masih AKAN berlanjut.
  
  Kalo hari ini BUMI +3% dan IHSG +24, malah Happy Time
  BELUM TENTU berlanjut...
  
  Coba pikirin KENAPA ?.
  
  Ilmu Bandarmologi itu, ilmu Common Sense dan bukan ngitungan
  Net Buy/Sell. Kalo pake hitungan Net Buy DH di BUMI kemaren
  seharusnya BUMI naek, tapi hari ini -1%.
  
  Kenapa ?. 
  
  Karena angka DH beli banyak itu = B O H O N G  B E S A R !!!,
  dan gimana cara bohongnya ?. Ini musti tanya ama BD nya.
  Embah cuman pake Logika Common Sense doang, udah tahu itu BOONG ...
  
  
   
  
  
  
  
  
  
  --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, David Lau dj_david77@ wrote:
  
   Analisa dunk Mbah..., ntar malem DJ gmana?
   
   

   Regards,...
   DvDâ¢
   
   Cuan Boleh Sendiri, Kalo Nyangkut Mesti Bareng
   
   
   
 Lebih aman saat online. Upgrade ke Internet Explorer 8 baru dan 
   lebih cepat yang dioptimalkan untuk Yahoo! agar Anda merasa lebih aman. 
   Gratis. Dapatkan IE8 di sini! 
   http://downloads.yahoo.com/id/internetexplorer/

Re: [ob] Kemungkinan besar Scenario Dubai akan diulang

2010-02-11 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Asian stocks advanced for a third day, while commodities and higher-yielding 
currencies rallied, as Australian unemployment fell, European leaders meet on 
an aid package for Greece and Chinese inflation unexpectedly slowed.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087sid=aszUb5bLHDNgpos=2

European Union leaders may lay the groundwork today for a precedent-setting aid 
package for Greece in a bid to shield the euro currency from the wrath of 
markets.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087sid=aaBzJcxeyOispos=5

I agree with the President that tax crimes should be seriously investigated. 
But I do not feel the statement is aimed at me. Golkar's stance will never 
change. Many people assumed the President's statement was a strike at me but I 
believe otherwise. The tax case should be settled within the procedural frame.
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2010/02/11/discourse-envy-behind-offenses-against-me-aburizal.html



--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Irwan Napitupulu irwannapitup...@... 
wrote:

 Mbah yg saya maksud dengan apa ngga terbalik skenarionya itu
 sebenarnya adalah apa ngga bumi ditahan kenaikannya atau bahkan
 diturunkan karena saham2 bagus lainnya lagi dikumpulin balik setelah
 sempat kemarin2 ada sedikit kepanikan akibat kasus eropa. Kalau mereka
 sudah puas mungutin lagi barang yg sempat kelepas, baru mungkin mereka
 lepaskan bumi dari kerangkeng :)
 
 Jadi, skenario yg saya tawarkan ke pemikiran mbah adalah skenario Dow
 ke 14000-an di akhir 2012. Kenapa akhir 2012? Karena kononnya kiamat
 terjadi di bulan desember 2012. Nah, kita tinggal pilih saja, mau mati
 di hari kiamat dengan tersenyum karena dow berada di 14000-an, atau
 mau mati dengan stress karena Dow ada di 3000-an. Saya rasa investor
 yg kaya2 itu mau matinya di hari kiamat dengan tersenyum lebar dan
 bahagia karena mereka juga bikin banyak orang lain tersenyum :)
 
 Soal longterm investor, berdasarkan dari yg sudah2, biasanya mereka
 mainnya tahunan mbah. Bisa sampai 5 tahun. Low nya DOW terakhir ada di
 awal 2009. Masa sih sudah mau jualan baru setahun nyimpen? Dugaan saya
 sih mereka akan jualannya nanti pada saat euphoria seperti tahun 2007.
 Dan itu mungkin terjadi di tahun 2014 kalau ngga kiamat :)
 
 Seperti misal, low terakhir Dow sebelum awal 2009, ada di tahun 2002.
 Mereka yg long term investor setelah puas ngumpulin, jualannya di
 tahun 2007 saat terjadi euphoria. Pada saat siklus ekonomi sudah di
 stage 3. Kalau sekarang khan saya perhatikan lagi baru mau masuk ke
 stage 2, masa sudah buru2 keluar, nanti masuk kategori EDI dong  :)
 
 Ini sih hanya dugaan saya saja ya mbah, saya juga ngga tahu mana yg
 bakalan kejadian. Cuma saja logika saya berpikir kalau memang BD mau
 jualan LQ45, justru saat lagi regional bagus seperti belakangan ini,
 mereka lebih gampang jualan kalau diangkat. Kalau ditahan2, ntar pas
 regional merah, khan malah jadi susah jualannya. Mending jualan pas
 lagi ada euphoria beli karena regional lagi ijo tebal belakangan ini
 :)
 
 Tapi terlepas dari itu, sebenarnya kasus BUMI atau tepatnya B7 ini
 saya duga sih lebih ke masalah berita ada yg ngajakin perang
 bharatayudha di politik. Saya sih berharap ada damai saja diantara
 mereka. Kalau ngga, bisa2 salah satu yg kalah bisa dipaksa keluar dari
 gelanggang dengan berbagai cara.
 
 Mungkin itu sebabnya beberapa orang lebih memilih aman dengan membuang
 porto di B7, dan masuk ke saham lain yg lebih aman, seperti saham plat
 merah, misalnya :)
 
 IAN
 
 
 
 
 2010/2/11 jsx_consultant jsx-consult...@...
 
 
  Secara TEORI semua long term investor mau keluar saat ini karena
  kemungkinan DJI akan turun terus pada medium term. Jadi
  semuanya ADALAH distribusi.
 
  Tapi analisa embah itu analisa bandarmologi jadi embah
  memusatkan perhatian pada USAHA2 BD untuk menyelamatkan
  portfolionya yaitu bisa keluar dari market bukan pada harga Crash.
 
  Pada awal February, BUMI sempat diangkat supaya BD bisa keluar
  pada LQ45 pada saat Krisis Yunani mau di Expose. Coba lihat
  gambarnya.
 
  Jadi meskipun Market Bearish, BD itu berusaha mengangkat saham2 tertentu
  agar bisa KABUR pada main portfolionya...
 
  Jadi kalo ada keanehan dalam akumulasi/distribusi saat ini,
  ini adalah USAHA PENYELAMATAN... Jadi engga usah heran
  kalo ANEH
 
 
  
  From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
  [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Irwan Napitupulu
  Sent: Thursday, February 11, 2010 12:15 PM
  To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
  Subject: Re: [ob] Kemungkinan besar Scenario Dubai akan diulang
 
 
 
  Mbah, apa ngga terbalik skenarionya? :)
 
  IAN
 
  2010/2/11 jsx_consultant jsx-consult...@...:
   Kemungkinan besar Scenario Dubai akan diulang
  
   Embah masih optimis B7 akan diangkat, perhitungan ini
   didasarkan logika:
   - Jika BUMI tidak diangkat maka Bozz akan rugi BESAR
    pada LQ45 ketika IHSG meneruskan Downtrendnya
   - Jika B7 diangkat maka sentimen market akan positif

[ob] EU leaders reach deal to rescue Greece

2010-02-11 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

European leaders have reached a deal to provide aid to Greece, EU president 
Herman Van Rompuy said on Thursday, in an unprecedented move to stave off a 
broader crisis in the 16-nation bloc that shares the euro.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/EU-leaders-reach-deal-to-rb-4068581329.html;_ylt=AhZ.W.J1HF6Bw_.KCIp7Tiu7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1YXZtMmVlBHBvcwMyBHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNldWxlYWRlcnNyZWE-?x=0sec=topStoriespos=mainasset=ccode=



--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Metallic Bull metallic.b...@... 
wrote:

 lho, Pak, ini jobless claim turun lho... jumlah orang yang minta tunjangan 
 sosial dengan alasan ngga punya pekerjaan, turun. bukannya itu berita bagus? 
 gimana ceritanya bisa semakin parah atau stagnan...?
   - Original Message - 
   From: mikey 
   To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
   Sent: Thursday, February 11, 2010 11:14 PM
   Subject: RE: [ob] Jobless Claims in U.S. Decrease More Than Anticipated - 
 B7 diteken lagi dah..
 
 
 
 
 
   Tidak ada kaitan sama b7... ini realita yang terjadi di US
 
   Bakal semakin parah atau stagnan, kebanyakan sekarang oursourcing / 
 contract aja
 

 
   Itu boss aja ada yang ditembak abis pegawai dipecatâ¦hehe
 

 
   From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
 [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of arif felix
   Sent: Thursday, 11 February, 2010 10:09 PM
   To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
   Subject: RE: [ob] Jobless Claims in U.S. Decrease More Than Anticipated - 
 B7 diteken lagi dah..

[ob] In the postcrash world, Pimco says it's time for everyone to load up on stocks.

2010-02-08 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Pimco's New Normal
Peter C. Beller and Michael Maiello, 01.21.10, 01:00 PM EST
Forbes Magazine dated February 08, 2010
In the postcrash world Pimco says it's time for everyone to load up on stocks.

Bond mavens William H. Gross and Mohamed El-Erian have built a fund firm in 
Newport Beach, Calif. that, with just over $1 trillion under management, rivals 
big banks in terms of the assets at its disposal. Pacific Investment Management 
Co. got there because Gross and El-Erian have, through the years, presciently 
peeked over the investment horizon more often than they've stumbled.

When much of the world was piling into Treasuries early last year, Gross bought 
up the unloved preferred shares and senior debt of taxpayer-backed companies 
like Citigroup and AIG. His flagship Pimco Total Return fund (assets: $202 
billion) ended 2009 up 13.3%, which was more than double the return on the 
Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (known as the Lehman Agg before all 
the trouble started). For the past decade its 7.8% average return bettered that 
of the index by 1.3 percentage points a year.

Chief Executive Officer El-Erian, 51, is an Egyptian native who traded on 
Salomon Brothers' storied bond desk before becoming an economist for the 
International Monetary Fund. His most famous call came in 2001 when he dumped 
Argentinean bonds from Pimco's emerging markets fund, leaving rival managers to 
suffer the carnage from the sovereign default that followed.

These days Gross and El-Erian are singing from the same songbook. The name of 
the tune is The New Normal, a term that Gross coined last March and that just 
might define the economic landscape for years, or decades, to come. When the 
U.S. and global economy reset after the crisis, [the global economy] will look 
different, says El-Erian. This has implications for investment strategies, 
how you run a business and what you offer your clients.

According to the Pimco party line, those implications are rather grim for the 
U.S. A year ago Gross told FORBES that our future will likely include a lowered 
living standard, high unemployment, stagnant corporate profits, heavy 
government intervention in the economy and disappointing equity returns. Nor, 
with interest rates already low, can investors expect much from bonds, other 
than their mediocre coupons.

Gross complained in his December investment commentary that 0.01% yields on 
money market funds are sending investors on a frantic search for higher returns 
elsewhere, regardless of the risks. Pimco's solution: Break with its heritage 
as a fixed-income manager and roll out equity mutual funds. No, it doesn't see 
a brilliant future for stocks, particularly the domestic variety, but Pimco 
does believe that amid the new normal they offer more promise than bonds.

You have to be able to actively manage risk in more ways than Pimco has in 
the past, El-Erian explains.

Looking far afield for returns has not always proved a winning strategy for 
El-Erian. Following his deft moves into and out of emerging market debt during 
his previous Pimco tenure, he headed east in 2005 to supervise Harvard's 
endowment. On his watch Harvard Management Co. doubled down on its hedge fund 
and private equity bets. The bad effects were felt after he left. The 
university, down to its last $26 billion, has deferred grand construction plans 
and taken away hot breakfasts from upperclassmen.

Returning to Newport Beach in late 2007, the Oxford- and Cambridge-trained 
economist operates these days out of Pimco offices decorated with a lavish but 
incongruous mix of paintings, sculptures and dark wooden paneling. Talking 
through a large mustache that looks strAIGht out of his native land, circa 
1950, El-Erian digresses in fluent but grammatically quirky English, pauses to 
ask whether he's boring his listener and digresses some more. For a moment you 
forget whether you are talking to a fund manager or a professor of philosophy.

Then again, mixing brains and a bit of flash has long been a Pimco mainstay. In 
its latest go-around, in December it hired Neel Kashkari, the 36-year-old 
former Goldman Sachs ( GS - news - people ) whiz kid who, until five months 
ago, oversaw the Treasury's deployment of $700 billion in Troubled Asset Relief 
Program funds.

Kashkari, who will head Pimco's new investment initiatives, is not a fund 
manager himself. Instead, he adds a bit of star power (Alan Greenspan is 
already a Pimco consultant), plus Wall Street connections to lure the best fund 
managers to faraway Newport Beach.

Just who Pimco will seek to recruit is likely to be a reflection of its view 
that over the next few years inflation will kick up, the dollar sink and 
foreign markets outperform the U.S. Thus, its managers advise U.S. investors to 
move at least two-thirds of their equity holdings abroad and a big portion of 
their bond portfolio as well. To protect against rising prices, they recommend 
putting 10% to 15% of assets

Re: [ob] Dow +

2010-02-08 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

jangan contrarian deh, soalnya baru ember kecil yg keluar. lagipula n225 open 
minus tuh.




--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Febry Hariyannugraha 
febry.hariyannugr...@... wrote:

 Sayang seribu sayang saudara-saudara ..
 Sekilas pandangan mata dari Wall Street .. DOW Jones ditutup -1% lagi malem
 ini ...
 Apakah BEI akan contrarian nanti pagi ..
 Kita saksikan saja saudara-saudara ..

Re: [ob] IHSG Today - The Bastions

2010-02-08 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

ini maksudnya supaya dibaca terbalik? berarti time to sell dong hehe.



--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Rinoa BC penjual.sp...@... wrote:

   *Y U B O T E M I T*
 
 [?] [?] [?]

[ob] Re: Day trade speculation... SIAP TEMPUR !!!

2010-02-07 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

ember siap dikeluarkan boss.


--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, jsx_consultant jsx-consult...@... 
wrote:

 Musuh ketakutan dan mundur
 
 Kejar dan tangkap dead or alive  !!!
 
 --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, jsx_consultant jsx-consultant@ 
 wrote:
 
  02:11 IHSG 2433 -85
  
  Musuh mendekati GARIS PERTAHANAN
  
  SIAP TEMPUR 
  
  
  
  --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, JT jsxtrader@ wrote:
  
   Yup, big cap dihajar terus, termasuk GGRM, tinggal BBCA belum
   terlalu dalem, kalo digebuk juga..., -4% kena nih
   

   
   From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
   [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com]
   On Behalf Of hexamail@
   Sent: 08 Februari 2010 13:56
   To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
   Subject: Re: [ob] IHSG sesi1 : Day trade speculation
   

   
   
   
   Dear prof,
   
   Kok tiga big cap itu turun dgn volume yg lumayan gede2 ya prof...
   
   ngerimodeon..
   
   Sent from my BlackBerryR smartphone from Sinyal Bagus XL, Nyambung
   Teruuusss...!
   
 _  
   
   From: JT jsxtrader@ 
   
   Date: Mon, 8 Feb 2010 13:48:49 +0700
   
   To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
   
   Subject: RE: [ob] IHSG sesi1 : Day trade speculation
   

   
 
   
   Big cap, TLKM, ASII, UNVR, dll dihajar terus Mbah., analisa 
   Bandamology
   Please.
   
   JT
   
   -Original Message-
   From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
   mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com
   [mailto:obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
   mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com ]
   On Behalf Of jsx_consultant
   Sent: 08 Februari 2010 13:31
   To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
   mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com
   
   Subject: [ob] IHSG sesi1 : Day trade speculation
   
   IHSG sesi 1 : Day trade speculation
   
   http://www.obrolanbandar.com/piwihsgzz1.png
   
   Ada 4 Support Level:
   - Lower channel line
   - Previous Low
   - Fibo 62% of Wave 5
   - Fibo 162% of Wave A
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   Tidak ada virus ditemukan dalam pesan masuk.
   Diperiksa oleh AVG - www.avg.com
   Versi: 9.0.733 / Basis Data Virus: 271.1.1/2673 - Tanggal Rilis: 02/08/10
   02:35:00

[ob] Tak Perlu Khawatir Orang Asing Memiliki Properti

2010-02-04 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Tak Perlu Khawatir Orang Asing Memiliki Properti
Kamis, 4 Februari 2010 | 02:58 WIB
Oleh  TJAHJA GUNAWANDIREDJA

Saat ini harga properti di Indonesia merupakan salah satu yang terendah di 
Asia, apalagi dibandingkan dengan negara maju seperti Amerika Serikat atau 
Inggris. Rendahnya harga apartemen di Indonesia sangat boleh jadi akibat tidak 
didukungnya kepemilikan orang asing di Indonesia yang formal.

Di Amerika, harga produk properti komersial (apartemen) 16.216 dollar AS, 
sedangkan di Indonesia hanya 1.287 dollar AS 
(http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/square-meter-prices).

Tidak hanya itu, di Negeri Paman Sam, orang asing boleh membeli high rise 
apartment maupun landed property serta bisa mendapatkan housing mortgage sampai 
30 tahun, tidak ada bedanya dengan orang Amerika-nya sendiri. Bahkan, pajak 
pembayaran housing mortgage bisa menjadi pengurangan pajak pendapatan.

Di Singapura, harga apartemen bisa mencapai 11.324 dollar AS per unit. Di 
negara tetangga kita ini, orang asing boleh membeli high rise apartment tetapi 
tidak boleh membeli landed property (rumah horizontal). Sementara di Malaysia, 
yang mempromosikan Malaysia My Second Home, membolehkan orang asing dan siapa 
pun juga untuk membeli properti dan tinggal di sana. Usia pun bukan batasan 
untuk membeli properti.

Malaysia

Bagi yang ingin memakai sendiri aset propertinya atau mau pindah untuk tinggal 
di Malaysia diberikan izin tinggal selama lima tahun. Izin tinggal ini tidak 
saja diberikan kepada pemilik rumah dan keluarganya, tetapi juga pembantu 
keluarga tersebut. Menurut Jopy Rusli, Direktur PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk, orang 
asing yang membeli produk properti di Indonesia tetap ada walaupun belum ada 
perangkat formalnya.

Mereka membeli produk properti melalui SPPJB (surat pengikatan perjanjian jual 
beli), nominee, dan PMA (perusahaan modal asing). Namun, orang asing paling 
banyak membeli properti melalui SPPJB, ungkap Jopy. Kendala yang selama ini 
dihadapi, banyak di antara orang asing yang mau membeli properti komersial 
tetapi tidak direkomendasikan oleh Lawyer International karena tidak adanya 
perangkat kepemilikan formal di Indonesia. Orang asing juga tidak dapat 
mendapatkan kredit pemilikan apartemen (KPA) karena peraturan bank sekarang 
tidak memperbolehkan KPA untuk orang asing.

Jika pemerintah bisa membuat kebijakan yang membolehkan orang asing memiliki 
properti komersial di Indonesia, sangat boleh jadi negara kita akan menjadi 
Macan Properti di Asia. Bahkan, bisa saja investor asing dan orang-orang kaya 
di Timur Tengah mengalihkan dananya untuk membeli apartemen di Indonesia. 
Bukankah uang mengalir ke tempat-tempat yang menguntungkan. Membeli produk 
properti komersial di Indonesia yield-nya bisa mencapai 11,28 persen, kata 
Presiden Direktur PT Bakrieland Development Hiramsyah Thaib.

Saat ini pekerja asing yang bekerja di Indonesia tercatat 83.452 orang. Itu 
merupakan potensi pasar yang besar. Saya memperkirakan, dari jumlah itu potensi 
permintaannya sekitar 10.000 unit apartemen per tahun, ujar Hiramsyah. Dari 
potensi permintaan itu, kemudian Ketua Umum Dewan Pimpinan Pusat Real Estate 
(REI) Teguh Satria menghitung pendapatan yang bisa diperoleh negara dari pajak 
penjualan apartemen untuk orang asing itu.

Kalau harga rata-rata apartemen untuk orang, misalnya, 250.000 dollar AS per 
unit, transaksi dalam setahun bisa mencapai Rp 25 triliun. Nah, pajak yang bisa 
diraup dari transaksi tersebut sebesar Rp 5 triliun per tahun. Jenis pajak itu 
antara lain terdiri dari Pajak Pertambahan Nilai (PPN) 10 persen, Bea Perolehan 
Hak Atas Tanah dan Bangunan (BPHTB) 5 persen, serta Pajak Penghasilan (PPh) 
Final 5 persen.

Belum lagi kalau pemerintah menerapkan lagi Pajak Penjualan Barang Mewah 
(PPnBM) untuk apartemen, maka pendapatan pajak yang diperoleh negara dari 
transaksi penjualan properti untuk orang asing akan lebih besar lagi, ungkap 
Teguh. Lalu di mana letak pengaruh pada lapisan masyarakat bawah jika orang 
asing diperbolehkan untuk membeli apartemen mewah di Indonesia?

Lah, kalau dari hasil pajak yang berjumlah Rp 5 triliun itu dipakai untuk 
membangun rumah sederhana sehat (RSH), maka bisa dibangun 500.000 unit RSH atau 
200.000 unit rumah susun sederhana milik (rusunami), ujar Teguh.

Harus segera direspons

Besarnya peluang orang asing untuk membeli apartemen mewah di Indonesia 
seharusnya bisa segera direspons oleh pemerintah. Hal ini penting karena tahun 
2010 merupakan momentum yang baik bagi pemulihan ekonomi Indonesia ke depan. 
Seperti diketahui, Indonesia, sebagai salah satu dari sedikit negara yang 
berhasil melewati krisis global dengan kinerja perekonomian yang cukup baik, 
semakin dipandang oleh berbagai institusi internasional dan kian mendapat 
sorotan di pentas dunia sebagai salah satu kekuatan ekonomi baru di kawasan 
Asia dan bisa disejajarkan dengan India dan China.

Optimisme sejumlah lembaga keuangan internasional, seperti Morgan Stanley dan 
CLSA, yang memprediksikan

[ob] Re: Trs: Donât stop believing in JCI 2750.pdf 56K

2010-02-02 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

just walk the talk. others will follow.


--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, AB asepbuh...@... wrote:

 meneruskan dr papah lauren
 
 rgds
 ab
 
 
 
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 driansyai...@...; edhi.pranasi...@...; edie curutz ecur...@...; e...@...; 
 edwin.rid...@...; edyanto.kis...@...; el...@...; em...@...; eMons 
 emon_jun...@...; ermawat...@...; eshab...@...; evi_wi...@...; 
 faisalba...@...; fajar...@...; fajar...@...; felix_lf...@...; fe...@...; 
 figa...@...; fi...@...; flora.chen...@...; fl...@...; gar...@...; 
 gato...@...; gengwei@...; giga_g...@...; guna...@...; gunawa...@...; 
 harry.kurnia...@...; HeLeN LiU herr...@...; hendra_as...@...; I Wayan Satia 
 Jaya sa...@...; ibe...@...; Ika Saragih ika_...@...; ima...@...;
  indeksbei3...@...; irenesusylor...@...; Irmina M. Christine me...@...; 
 iscaeffe...@...; itz.he...@...; iw...@...; j_ga...@...; japar...@...; 
 jems...@...; jen...@...; johanis.har...@...; jul...@...; kalipatul...@...; 
 keir...@...; ken.c...@...; kim.k...@...; kurnk...@...; lan...@...; la...@...; 
 leonard_...@...; Liem Hok Hwan limh...@...; liena_t...@...; li...@...; 
 lily.redap...@...; lingga.bu...@...; lmsssa...@...; lusianata...@...; 
 made.muliart...@...; made.suardh...@...; magda_...@...; Mail Delivery 
 Subsystem mailer-dae...@...; Mail Delivery System mailer-dae...@...; 
 marian...@...; mart...@...; mary...@...;
  maston@...; mauli_andipad...@...; maya_tjan...@...; me...@...; 
 meilya.sua...@...; Melati Puspitawati mel...@...; mel...@...; me...@...; 
 mern...@...; me...@...; Michael Nefo Handojo n...@...; michael.bat...@...; 
 mohammad.ang...@...; mu...@...; natal...@...; ngu...@...; nitin.si...@...; 
 novi...@...; novrinanasutiong...@...; ntn_...@...; nugroho.permanab...@...; 
 nyonya_lo...@...; oke...@...; o...@...; Padian_Maruli_Andi/RT/JK/rc...@...; 
 parto.kaw...@...; patricia.sumamp...@...; patri...@...; paula_komaru...@...; 
 pesona_li...@...; philipwij...@...; philwij...@...; philwij...@...; 
 pr...@...; proko...@...;
  putri.canti...@...; rafdi.pr...@...; rafdipr...@...; rengga.wici...@...; 
 retno_e...@...; reyna...@...; rhfo...@...; richa...@...; r...@...; 
 riki.frin...@...; rima.se...@...; rinie...@...; rnorman...@...; Robby Hafil 
 robbyha...@...; robby_...@...; rob...@...; rudalinvest...@...; 
 ruddy.raha...@...; r...@...; ru...@...; r...@...; s500...@...; 
 sandi_ta...@...; santi.mantov...@...; satrio.cha...@...; sat...@...; 
 sat...@...; sby_a...@...; shelly_poo...@...; siscaeffe...@...; 
 siswa_riz...@...; s...@...; sonny.j...@...; spiderpman_4...@...; spra...@...; 
 sr_cute73 sr_cut...@...; srimur...@...; stefanus hoeisan 
 stefanushoei...@...;
  steve.susa...@...; sugia...@...; sul_1...@...; sury...@...; 
 susan.pra...@...; susa...@...; susan...@...; sus...@...; sutri...@...; 
 syaefudd...@...; syafr...@...; Syaiful Adrian adriansyai...@...; 
 syal...@...; teddy teddy.ha...@...; teguh.harta...@...; tejaj...@...; 
 tennywidj...@...; thauriq.an...@...; tonoali2...@...; trevor.gas...@...; 
 tri_winant...@...; tsuny...@...; tu...@...; u_l...@...; u...@...; u...@...; 
 vaddel...@...; vello...@...; veron...@...; vicella.tj...@...; vi...@...; 
 victoriamerc...@...; vita.nilas...@...; wahy...@...; widodowa...@...; 
 wins...@...; wisnu.manu...@...; wisnu.wij...@...;
  wpraw...@...; yah...@...; yani...@...; yanti...@...; yasaka...@...; 
 yasakasihandr...@...; yefri...@...; y...@...; ye...@...; ygket...@...; 
 yhpraw...@...; yud...@...; Yuga Wijanarko yuga.wijana...@...; yuga...@...; 
 yulius.kurnia...@...; yuli...@...; y...@...; yuniar.resta...@...; 
 zenibra...@...
 Terkirim: Sel, 2 Februari, 2010 14:41:40
 Judul: Donât stop

Re: [ob] IPO Highlight Benakat Petroleum Energy, Tbk

2010-02-01 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

di riset valbury koq masih rugi? koq rugi bisa ipo? bukannya ada aturan yg 
mengharuskan untung 3 tahun baru bisa ipo?


--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Andre Andre andre...@... wrote:

 ga jelas neh companynama anak perusahaanya aneh2 kaya yg biasa d BVI 
 hahahaha
 
 
 
 
 
 From: **bLi iNdRa** bli_in...@...
 To: Obrolan Bandar obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
 Sent: Mon, February 1, 2010 8:17:36 PM
 Subject: Re: [ob] IPO Highlight Benakat Petroleum Energy, Tbk
 
 Hehehe ga tau, ane br dpt lgsg fwd ke milis, ga sempet baca n ga minat ikutin 
 IPOnya:p
 Monggo yg ahli2 FA bantu utk recommendnya:D
 
 Best Regards
 **bLi iNdRa**
 
 ==cuan ga cuan yg penting happy==
 powered by obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com®
 
 -Original Message-
 From: Ferry ferry.wachj...@...
 Date: Mon, 01 Feb 2010 20:18:17 
 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
 Subject: Re: [ob] IPO Highlight Benakat Petroleum Energy, Tbk
 
 Apakah ini salah satu groupnya AB juga?
 
 **bLi iNdRa** wrote:
   
 
 
  Best Regards
  **bLi iNdRa**
 
  ==cuan ga cuan yg penting happy==
  powered by Obrolan-Bandar@yahoogroups.com 
  mailto:Obrolan-Bandar%40yahoogroups.com®
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 + +
 + + + + +
 Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus 
 kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas.
 + + + + +
 + +Yahoo! Groups Links
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 + +
 + + + + +
 Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus 
 kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas.
 + + + + +
 + +Yahoo! Groups Links

[ob] Indonesia in Place Among BRIC Nations, Templeton Says

2010-01-30 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Indonesia in Place Among BRIC Nations, Templeton Says (Update1)
January 28, 2010, 09:26 PM EST

By Berni Moestafa

Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia, Asia's second-best performing stock market 
last year, may be ready to join the so- called BRIC group of major emerging 
nations, according to Templeton Asset Management Ltd.

Indonesia's political and economic outlook has improved tremendously in recent 
years, Templeton portfolio manager Dennis Lim wrote in a note yesterday on 
Chairman Mark Mobius's blog. So clearly, it would not look out of place beside 
the BRIC countries.

Inclusion in the category -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- coined in 2001 
by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Economist Jim O'Neill may increase demand for 
Indonesian stocks. Investors should stick with the BRICs, a group that tends 
to outperform in non-recession years, Morgan Stanley strategists led by 
Jonathan Garner said last week.

The Jakarta Composite index jumped 87 percent last year as Indonesia skirted 
the global recession after nine interest rate cuts by the central bank. 
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's re-election in July boosted confidence he 
will maintain policies that helped Southeast Asia's biggest economy expand more 
than 6 percent annually in the two years until 2008.

Economic growth may average 6.6 percent over the next five years as poverty and 
unemployment decline, Yudhoyono said on Jan. 4. Fitch Ratings on Jan. 25 raised 
Indonesia's credit ratings to one level below investment grade.

Fitch's Upgrade

Fitch's rating upgrade reflects Indonesia's economic resilience and an 
improving balance of payments, said Bank Indonesia Deputy Governor Hartadi 
Sarwono. Foreign-exchange reserves rose to $69 billion as of Jan. 22, he said.

Being in the same group as BRIC may get Indonesia more attention from 
investors, said Finny Fauzana, a fund manager at PT PNM Investment Management, 
which oversees about $139 million in assets in Jakarta. But foreign investors 
putting money into the real economy need more than that because they consider a 
lot of other factors such as regulation and taxes.

Indonesia ranks 122 out of 183 economies in a World Bank 2009 survey on 
business-friendly practices. President Yudhoyono said on Oct. 20 he would 
reduce bureaucratic bottlenecks that hinder investment. He campaigned for 
re-election in July on a pledge to double spending on roads, rails and ports to 
$140 billion over the next five years to boost economic expansion.

Faster Growth

Growth may accelerate to 7 percent from 2011, providing the case for 
Indonesia's inclusion into BRIC, according to a Morgan Stanley report in June. 
Emil Salim, a former cabinet minister, said in July that Indonesia's targeting 
to put another `I' into BRIC, adding the goal may be achieved in five years.

The BRICs theme, which played well in 2009, continues to resonate in early 
2010, Cambridge, Massachusetts-based funds tracker EPFR Global said Jan. 21. 
Dedicated BRIC equity funds recorded inflows of $182 million in the third week 
of January, compared with the $103 million average last year, EPFR said.

Overseas investors have bought a net 666 billion rupiah ($71 million) of the 
shares this year, according to exchange data. Overseas investors purchased 13.3 
trillion rupiah of the shares last year, down from 18.7 trillion rupiah in 2008.

[ob] Indonesia's Teflon tycoon

2010-01-30 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Indonesia's Teflon tycoon
Aburizal Bakrie has survived controversy in business and politics
Jan 14th 2010 | JAKARTA | From The Economist print edition

ALTHOUGH Aburizal Bakrie, one of Indonesia's most prominent businessmen, lost 
his job as Indonesia's welfare minister last year, he is still managing to 
generate lots of political controversy. In October he took the reins of Golkar, 
the party created by Indonesia's former strongman, Suharto. Now he is trying to 
reshape the cabinet in his own image, calling for the suspension of the 
vice-president and the finance minister over their role in the bail-out of a 
local bank in 2008. Golkar lawmakers spent much of this week interrogating the 
pair in public hearings.

Mr Bakrie's family business, meanwhile, continues to pull off improbable feats. 
In November a consortium it led outmanoeuvred state-owned firms and a local 
rival to secure a stake in one of the world's biggest copper and gold mines, on 
the island of Sumbawa. The month before China Investment Corporation, a Chinese 
sovereign-wealth fund, had lent Bumi Resources, a big coal-mining firm in which 
the family owns a stake, $1.9 billion.

The deals crowned the family business's recovery from near collapse in 2008, 
when a plunge in the shares of six Bakrie-linked firms prompted the Indonesia 
Stock Exchange to close for three days. Even before that narrow escape, Mr 
Bakrie was notable as one of the few tycoons from Suharto's era to have managed 
to preserve his businesses and political clout despite the Asian crisis of 1997 
and the transition to democracy the following year.

Mr Bakrie's continued influence is the cause of much discussion in Jakarta. 
Bakrie-controlled companies cover the breadth of Indonesia's economy, including 
mining, oil and gas, palm oil, property, telecommunications and finance. So 
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Indonesia's president, stirred concerns about 
conflicts of interest when he appointed Mr Bakrie as minister with overall 
responsibility for the economy in 2004. Although he was put in charge of social 
welfare and public services instead after a reshuffle in 2005, the controversy 
only grew.

In 2006 a devastating mudflow erupted near a site in Java where Lapindo 
Brantas, a Bakrie-controlled company, was drilling for gas. The mud continues 
to flow today, and has displaced more than 16,000 people, swamping entire 
villages, factories and towns in toxic sludge. Lapindo Brantas disavows any 
responsibility, despite claims that it had failed to use appropriate safety 
equipment while drilling. It insists the mudflow was triggered by an earthquake 
three days beforean explanation that has been dismissed by numerous 
international experts. Lapindo still has not compensated most of those 
displaced by the mudflow despite twice being ordered to do so by Mr Yudhoyono. 
A police investigation limped along for more than three years before officials 
announced last August that they were dropping the case. Soon after a special 
investigative committee of the House of Representatives, led by a member of 
Golkar, declared, with little scientific backing, that the mudflow was a 
natural disaster.

Mr Bakrie kept his job through all this. Although he has since left the 
cabinet, other members of Golkar are still in it. The party remains in the 
governing coalition despite its spirited attacks on the vice-president and the 
finance minister, and its support of an investigation of the president's 
Democrat Party, which have been accused of embezzling government funds.

Mr Bakrie rejects any suggestion that he wields undue influence. In 2008 he 
threatened to sue Tempo, one of the country's leading political magazines, 
after it ran a critical article featuring a caricature of his face with the 
number 666 on his forehead. By the same token, he has rejected the claim of 
Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the finance minister, that Golkar is pursuing her only 
because she has resisted special treatment for Bakrie family firms. He says he 
simply wants to hold public officials to account. Some observers believe his 
desire to serve the public good is so strong he may even run for president 
himself one day.

http://www.economist.com/people/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15278524

[ob] (US) Economy grows at 5.7 pct pace, fastest since 2003

2010-01-29 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Economy grows for second straight quarter at 5.7 percent annual rate, fastest 
since 2003

By Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer , On Friday January 29, 2010, 
8:57 am

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy grew for a second straight quarter from October 
through December, posting a better-than-expected 5.7 percent annual rate, the 
fastest quarterly pace since 2003.

The Commerce Department report is the strongest evidence to date that the worst 
recession since the 1930s ended last year, though an academic panel that dates 
recessions has yet to officially declare an end to it.

The two straight quarters of growth followed a record four quarters of decline. 
Still, the expansion in the fourth quarter was fueled by companies refilling 
depleted stockpiles, a trend that will eventually fade.

Growth exceeded expectations mainly because business spending on equipment and 
software jumped 13.3 percent -- much more than forecast.

The report provided an upbeat end to an otherwise dismal year: The nation's 
economy declined 2.4 percent in 2009, the largest drop since 1946.

Still, economists expect growth to slow this year as companies finish 
restocking inventories and as government stimulus efforts fade. Many estimate 
the nation's gross domestic product will slow to a 3 percent rate in the 
current quarter and to about 2.5 percent for 2010.

About 60 percent of the fourth quarter's growth resulted from a sharp slowdown 
in the reduction of inventories as firms began to rebuild stockpiles depleted 
by the recession.

Excluding inventory changes, the economy would have grown at a 2.2 percent 
clip, the government said. That's an improvement from 1.5 percent in the third 
quarter.

Besides business spending on equipment and software, also powering growth in 
the October-December period was consumer spending, which rose 2 percent.

A steep increase in exports also helped boost growth. The shipment of goods 
overseas rose 18.1 percent, far outpacing a 10.5 percent rise in imports.

Government spending was actually a slight drag on growth in the fourth quarter: 
A small increase in federal spending was outweighed by a drop in state and 
local spending.

[ob] Re: BUY ELTY TP 400

diincar fm asing:
Kenaikan harga yang cepat disertai kinerja fundamental yang kokoh menjadikan 
ELTY sebagai saham properti primadona di Asia, kata CEO Alpine Management  
Research LLC Sam Lieber di Jakarta, Selasa (19/1). Sam dalam wawancaranya 
dengan jaringan televisi Pimm Fox akhir pekan lalu menerangkan saham ELTY 
merupakan satu-satunya saham properti di Asia yang memiliki prospek cerah ke 
depannya.
http://www.mediaindonesia.com/read/2010/01/19/117876/19/2/Investor-Asing-Buru-Saham-Bakrieland-Development

banyak proyek dan funding yg mudah:
Bakrieland Percepat Emisi Obligasi Rp 1 T
http://bisnis.vivanews.com/news/read/122865-bakrieland_percepat_emisi_obligasi_rp_1_t

placement limitless hampir clear:
PT Bakrieland Development Tbk (ELTY) is targeting that the proposal for paying 
off the acquisition of its three subsidiaries by Limitless World LLC will be 
ready in no time.
http://en.vivanews.com/news/read/123458-elty___limitless_to_settle_issue_in_q1

tapi market nggak kondusif.
jadi, ngopi dulu ah, sambil nunggu diskon hehehe.



--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Data Saham datasaha...@... wrote:

 
 
 
   Busy  in 2010ô  Beneficiary  of foreign property ownership.ô  Ready  
 for expansion again.ô  Toll  roads for property development.ô  Maintain 
  TP at IDR400. BUY. Â Beneficiary  of foreign propertyownershipWith sizeable  
 landbank in  Jakarta primeCBD area, Bakrieland  should be able tosell its 
 property to  foreigners when thegovernment revises  foreign propertyownership 
 ruling;  thus, locking up higherreturn on its  projects. ELTY also 
 hasproperty developments  in Bali , where itcan sell  higher-priced 
 properties. Â Ready  for expansion againBakrieland completed  three 
 majorproperty projects in  2009 and early 2010including the  50-storey Bakrie 
Tower ,Epicentrum Walk and  Pullman Bali Legian Nirwana. In 2010,  
 thecompany will  concentrate on finishing and relaunching apartments  
 inEpicentrum (The Wave  and the Grove), expanding the Bogor NirwanaâsThe 
 Jungle water park  and housing clusters and property in Bali  (Legian,Ubud 
 and Tanah
  Lot).  Land acquisition will be concentrated in  BogorNirwana area, near  
 the Ciawi â Sukabumi road, where the company hasinterest in the toll  road 
 project. Apart from concentration in three  majorareas â  Jakarta , Bogor 
 and   Bali â it has property for development  inMalang, Lampung, Batam,   
 Balikpapan and  Sukabumi. Â Toll  roads for property 
 developmentBakrielandâs first  toll road project, 35km Kanci â Pejagan, 
 will startoperations end of  January 2010. The company also has interest in 
 fourother toll roads  (three part of the Trans Java and one in West  Java 
 ).Given the track  record on land acquisition, Bakrieland has so far  
 beenmore successful in  terms of acquiring land for the toll road project. It 
  hassecured IDR2.5t loans  from BNI and BRI for toll road construction and 
 forthe development of  the adjacent area into a higher value area. Â Maintain 
  TP at IDR400. BUYWith the  consolidation of the toll road operation in 2010, 
 we 
  expectBakrieland to book  more depreciation charges and interest 
 expenses,which should limit  its earnings growth in 2010 to 18.3% despite 
 theexpected rising  property sales, resulting in a 37% earnings reduction  
 for2010 and 33% for  2011. We keep the TP at IDR400 on a 20% discountto the 
 estimated RNAV  of IDR504. Risks: Higher-than-expected inflationrate and 
 tighter  monetary policy. Â  Â  Â   Â

[ob] Re: Walang kekek , jangan IHSG aja...

jangan ta melulu. too much ta will kill you hehe. sekali2 fundamental dong, 
misal: apakah indonesia bisa decouple. soalnya china saja bisa tumbuh 10% 
(kalau nggak ada tmp bisa 16%).
have a nice contemplating weekend.


--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, jsx_consultant jsx-consult...@... 
wrote:

 Week end dulu, jangan IHSG melulu... 
 
 Dengerin nih lagu orang jaman dulu:
 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XojAArVx-Ts
 
 Embah engga ngerti bahasa Jowo, ini lagi
 ngomong apa sih, pake laiya laiyo... hehehe...

[ob] Re: Fwd: HI MBAH! WINDOWDRESSING

is 30xx waiting for godot??

http://www.enotes.com/waiting-for-godot
http://www.samuel-beckett.net/Waiting_for_Godot_Part1.html
http://www.samuel-beckett.net/Waiting_for_Godot_Part2.html


--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, It's Elaine! elainesu...@... wrote:

 *Hi all,
 
 Just want to share that below was my love letter to Embah, sent about a
 month a go when IDX was 2400. Currently my target is only 25% until Jan-Feb
 (balanced-diversified), which translates to 30xx level, so help us God.
 About the dollar shock, check your chart, you will know what I mean.
 
 The rally may be late, but it's better late than never. Laggards would be
 Bakrie stocks, property and metal miners (I believe they're technically
 confirmed, or whatever, JT should be able to help you). Esp on prop/constr
 don't sell until 100% gain at least. Some of them are grossly underpriced.
 FA enthusiasts should be able to help you.
 
 For 2010, you can read the letter below. That's all I can say at this
 moment. Anyway, when I was away, I learned a bit about TA, and I'd say it's
 amazing, really. Should've done a long time ago.
 
 Fifi, 
 
  he's mine. [?] lolz.. [?]
 
 Elaine*
 
 -- Forwarded message --
 From: It's Elaine! elainesu...@...
 Date: Thu, Dec 3, 2009 at 2:40 PM
 Subject: ***HI MBAH! WINDOWDRESSING***
 To: jsx-consult...@...
 
 
 *Just want to share that this December to Jan 10, Asia Pacific is expected
 to have two month straight window dressing, around 10-25% average upside.
 Though the general market will be affected, laggards will play major role so
 be prepared. Also expect to see good news (even ridiculous ones) to flavor
 the year end rally.
 
 US Dollar will stay low.. or lower.. for some time. Consider stock markets
 reversals when public thinks that USD is too low and fears that Chinese
 Government will stop buying US treasury that will lead to debt crisis and
 will spark hyperinflation (I call it the dollar shock), so focus on your
 currency. Anything can happen dependending on your central bank action. On
 the longer view, 2010 is quite volatile and sideway-ish since many
 corporations poses higher default risk. What happened in Dubai was only a
 start.
 
 We're in a process of deflating and deleveraging economy. But for now, just
 be quiet and enjoy the show. ^_^
 
 Elaine*

Re: [ob] IHSG

bagaimana dengan yg domestic-driven industry? seperti properti, konstruksi, 
retail? di 2010, china bisa tumbuh 10%, india 7%, indonesia  5%. sebelum 
krisis ada teori bahwa asia bisa decoupled dari developed countries. memang 
faktanya sebaliknya, sebagian besar asia terimbas krisis. tapi china, india, 
indonesia dan vietnam membuktikan kalau teori decoupling tsb ada benarnya juga. 
karena untuk kasus seperti indonesia ternyata faktor demand domestik jauh lebih 
besar dibanding ketergantungan ekspor (komoditas dsb).



--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, t_bumi t_b...@... wrote:

 
 
 Sip : tbumi
 
 Sebenarnya dlm kondisi resesi ataupun menuju pemulihan, emiten
 
 komodity yang penurunannya tak begitu dratis karena :
 
 1. Emiten ini masih bisa membukukan profit karena tak ada 
 
 resiko tagihan macet sebab semua pembayaran dari pembeli 
 
 selalu dgn L/C atau bank garansi. Lain dgn bisnis finansial
 
 yg selalu berisiko dgn tagihan macet karena memberikan hutang
 
 ke konsumen bank.
 
 2. emiten komodity adalah produk yg sekali pakai saja, seperti
 
 minyak bensin, batubara, cpo. Begitu selesai dipakai maka konsumen
 
 harus beli kembali yang baru. Produk tsb tak bisa didaur ulang
 
 kembali. Dan juga produk tsb merupakan kekayaan alam yg tak
 
 bisa dimiliki semua negara tapi dibutuhkan oleh dunia. Jadi
 
 kenapa emiten komdity bisa bertahan terus naik harganya. 
 
 Penurunan di bursa USA tiga hari lalu karena ada LK perusahaan
 
 besar yg kurang bagus, ini masuk diakal karena memang di tahun 2009
 
 semua bisnis masih lesu. Kemudian ada rencana kebijaksanaan baru
 
 dari Obama utk perbankan.

Re: [ob] Dow parah -1.3% per 22:52

2010-01-21 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

cut loss is not a sin.


--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, EBâ¢ edbami...@... wrote:

 Besok CL lagi nih
 
 EB
 
 -Original Message-
 From: highwaysta...@...
 Date: Thu, 21 Jan 2010 15:56:30 
 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
 Subject: Re: [ob] Dow parah -1.3% per 22:52
 
 Hahaha...bodo ah, mau tidur aja deh :)
 Good night pak.
 Sent from my computer of course!
 
 -Original Message-
 From: Febry Hariyannugraha febry.hariyannugr...@...
 Date: Thu, 21 Jan 2010 09:54:25 
 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
 Subject: Re: [ob] Dow parah -1.3% per 22:52
 
 Sabar Pak Rei ..
 Siapa tau boss kontrarian besok  
 
 On Thu, Jan 21, 2010 at 9:52 AM, Rei highwaysta...@... wrote:
 
 
 
  DJUSCL, DJUSMG, DJUSBK, Dow parah merah berat...
  Alamak!
 
  --
  Sent from my coal-powered phone.

[ob] U.S. Economy: Industrial Production, Confidence Climb

2010-01-16 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

U.S. Economy: Industrial Production, Confidence Climb (Update1)
By Courtney Schlisserman and Timothy R. Homan

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Production in the U.S. rose for a sixth consecutive 
month, consumers gained confidence and price increases slowed, indicating the 
economic recovery is being sustained into 2010 without generating inflation.

Output climbed 0.6 percent in December for a second month, according to figures 
from the Federal Reserve issued today in Washington. The cost of living 
increased 0.1 percent last month, less than the median forecast of economists 
surveyed by Bloomberg News, and sentiment reached a four-month high in January, 
other reports showed.

Manufacturers may ramp up production in coming months to rebuild stockpiles and 
meet rising global demand that's lifting profits at companies including Intel 
Corp. The rebound so far has soaked up a quarter of the excess capacity created 
by the worst recession since the 1930s, giving the Fed scope to keep interest 
rates close to zero through the first half of the year.

The economy is on a pretty good track on the recovery side and inflation is 
not a problem, said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight 
in Lexington, Massachusetts, who correctly forecast the increase in consumer 
prices. The Fed can be pretty relaxed, at least for the moment, and focus on 
making sure this recovery is sustainable.

Stocks Drop

The Standard  Poor's 500 Index dropped the most in a month after JPMorgan 
Chase  Co. reported a loss in its retail banking division and a stronger 
dollar pulled down commodity prices. The SP 500 fell 1.1 percent to 1,136.03 
at 4:05 p.m. in New York, the biggest decline since Dec. 17.

The increase in production matched the median forecast of 76 economists 
surveyed by Bloomberg. Estimates ranged from no change to a gain of 1.1 
percent. The stretch of increases at the end of 2009 was the longest in a 
decade.

Production was propelled by a jump in utility use as temperatures turned 
colder. Utility demand climbed 5.9 percent, the biggest jump in two decades. 
December was colder than average, according to the National Oceanic and 
Atmospheric Administration, prompting Americans to turn up the heat.

Manufacturing dropped 0.1 percent as losses in auto and mineral production 
offset a 0.9 percent gain in business equipment. Demand for computers, 
communications gear and semiconductors improved, signaling investment may be 
picking up.

Another report today showed manufacturing accelerated in the New York Fed 
region this month. The Fed Bank of New York's general economic index rose to 
15.9 from 4.5 in December. Readings above zero in the so-called Empire State 
Index signal manufacturing expansion in the state and parts of New Jersey and 
Connecticut.

`Solid' Quarter

We're turning up, said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank 
Securities Inc. in New York. Inventories are the spark of the recovery, he 
said, and growth looks pretty solid for the fourth quarter.

Intel, the world's largest chipmaker, yesterday projected bigger first-quarter 
sales than analysts had estimated, a sign the computer industry has shaken off 
the effects of the recession. The Santa Clara, California-based company, which 
supplies chips to more than 80 percent of the world's computers, expects its 
profit margin to hit a 10-year high this year as consumers snap up laptops and 
businesses loosen the purse strings on technology budgets.

My expectation for 2010 is that we're going to see robust unit growth, Chief 
Financial Officer Stacy Smith said in an interview. The consumer segments of 
the market will stay pretty strong, and I do believe we are going to see a 
resurgence in PC client sales.

Spare Capacity

Capacity utilization, which measures the proportion of plants in use, increased 
to 72 percent in December, the highest level in a year, from 71.5 the prior 
month, the Fed's production report also showed. It was forecast to rise to 71.8 
percent, according to the survey median.

The plant-use rate averaged 80 percent over the past two decades and reached a 
record low 68.3 percent in June. Excess capacity is one reason economists 
project inflation will remain low.

The increase in the consumer-price index last month followed a 0.4 percent gain 
in November, the Labor Department reported. The median forecast of economists 
surveyed projected a 0.2 percent advance.

Excluding food and energy costs, the so-called core index also increased 0.1 
percent. Companies may have little success raising prices with unemployment 
projected to average 10 percent this year, the highest annual rate in seven 
decades.

Consumer pricing pressures remain very subdued, said Russell Price, a senior 
economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit, who accurately forecast the 
rise in the core rate. It gives the Fed further leeway to continue keeping 
rates where they are well through 2010.

The Reuters/University of

[ob] Insight: The Century and Bumi cases: Who is the slayer, who is the victim?

2010-01-16 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Insight: The Century and Bumi cases: Who is the slayer, who is the victim?

Wimar Witoelar ,  Jakarta   |  Wed, 01/13/2010 9:05 AM  |  Headlines

After the disastrous machine gun attack on the Togolese national football 
team's bus on the Angola border, Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger said the African 
Cup of Nations should continue despite the fact the attack killed several 
people. I don't believe you can just stop a competition because of an incident 
as I think that would reward the people who provoked the incident and could 
mean that any competition is stopped at any time, added Wenger, who has 
Arsenal players Alex Song (Cameroon) and Emmanuel Eboue (Ivory Coast) playing 
for their national teams in the finals. Arsenal Wenger has got it right. It's 
not only about winning. It's about doing the right thing.

There is more than a touch of surrealism in the events unfolding today. We 
remember that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono  (SBY) won his second term 
with a majority of more than 60 percent. In addition, he has done nothing 
wrong. Even if he was at fault in the Bank Century allegations, it happened in 
2008, the year before the political parties initiated the parliamentary 
proceedings supported by the media group that is owned by tax evaders.

Many parliamentarians who now allege fraud in the Bank Century bailout agreed 
with the bailout decision at the time it was taken. Finance Minister Sri 
Mulyani and Vice President Boediono should be the last people in any Indonesian 
government to be accused of dishonesty, with clean records for the lifespan of 
their careers. So why are these good people being vilified by politicians, 
student activists and people on the street?

You need search no further back than 2001 for a possible answer. The night 
before last New Year's Eve, the nation lost a great man who held the presidency 
for less than two years until he was ousted in 2001. In those brief years, 
Abdurrahman Gus Dur Wahid  succeeded in launching the greatest reforms in 
Indonesia's civil society. Through his leadership and the support of many good 
people, Indonesia became an overnight leader in the promotion of pluralism, 
democracy and humanity. Gus Dur is by all measures a hero.  

Although he lost the presidency, Gus Dur was elevated to become the keeper of 
the nation's conscience. He was a victim of a cabal, a small group of secret 
plotters.  Who were the plotters? Parliament leaders, the media, big money, 
misguided students and paid activists. There is a strong sense of déjà vu. The 
cast of characters in 2010 is a bit different from 2001 but the story is the 
same.

SBY is not Gus Dur, but they are both popular leaders facing vindictive 
politicians.  Substitute Golkar chairman Aburizal Bakrie for Amien Rais in the 
leading role and you have the same scenario now as we had back then. 
Bulog-Bruneigate was the excuse for wanton attacks on the president in 2001 and 
Bank Century is the issue in 2010. Buloggate was never proven as a crime and 
neither will the Bank Century case. Amien Rais went for straight impeachment 
instead, explaining that it didn't matter what he was guilty of, he had been 
removed. Aburizal may yet desert Century and aim at impeachment, all or nothing.

According to the press, student groups and activists plan to hold rallies to 
pressure President Yudhoyono and Vice President Boediono to step down. They 
demand that SBY and Boediono resign because the students feel they can no 
longer expect anything from them. Many do not agree, but they do not have the 
funding to resist, nor do they own political parties and television stations. 
The economy needs the smart and impeccably clean finance minister, but she is 
drowned out by meaningless screams.

Where are the anti-Wahid activists of 2001 now?  Everybody mourns the passing 
of Gus Dur whom the demonstrators derided, insulted and forced out of office. 
Students joined demonstrations led by Amien Rais in March of 2001. Where have 
they all gone?  Will the activists of 2010 also disappear once their cynical 
job is done? Activists announced they would take to the streets in a force of 
100,000 people last month on International Anti-Corruption Day. Fears 
disappeared when only 5,000 demonstrators showed up in Jakarta. A group of 50 
threw stones at a KFC outlet in Makassar believing the neoliberal corporation 
was involved in Bank Century. Why such a disappointing turnout? It was raining, 
the leaders later explained.

The political battle could become serious if a TV expose gathers momentum, if a 
station presents a clinical overview of the tax fraud cases pending against the 
Bakrie Group. To make a long story short, it involves an amount that may well 
reach Rp 10 trillion (US$1.09 billion) in tax and royalty debts and fines for 
tax evasion. The Bakrie Group has declined to comment so we do not know their 
side of the story. But if the allegations are true then the money is much 
greater than the alleged

[ob] BI Mengkaji Seretnya Bunga Kredit

2010-01-15 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

BI Mengkaji Seretnya Bunga Kredit
 
Meski beberapa bank telah menurunkan bunga kredit, namun penurunan itu masih 
jauh dari harapan pelaku industri. Oleh karena itu, Bank Indonesia (BI) terus 
mengkaji penurunan suku bunga kredit perbankan yang masih saja seret.

BI kembali melihat komponen-komponen yang mempengaruhi besaran bunga kredit. 
Kita ingin tahu, apa saja yang terdapat dalam komponen-komponen tersebut. 
Misalnya, biaya dana atau juga overhead cost dan lain sebagainya, kata 
Direktur Penelitian dan Pengaturan BI Halim Alamsyah, Jakarta, Jumat, 15/1.

Setelah mengetahui itu semua, lanjut Halim, maka BI akan membuat kebijakan yang 
arahnya menuju kepada penurunan bunga kredit. Tapi tidak secara langsung 
karena itu semua merupakan hasil dari berbagai faktor, ujarnya.

Menurut Halim, BI rencananya akan melakukan perubahan-perubahan beberapa aturan 
supaya perbankan lebih efisien. Itu yang sedang kita pikirkan, lanjutnya.

Tingkat bunga kredit sebenarnya akan dibatasi oleh beberapa hal, terutama 
terkait dengan efisiensi masing-masing bank itu sendiri. Menurut Halim, jika 
bank kurang efisien maka dia terpaksa menawarkan bunga kredit yang tidak 
kompetitif.

Selain itu, sistem akuntansi bank juga mempengaruhi besarnya bunga kredit. Bank 
harus punya catatan yang baik untuk mengendalikan biaya dana yang menjadi 
komponen dalam bunga kredit. Kalau tidak berhasil maka dia akan menawarkan 
suku bunga kredit yang tinggi, ujarnya.

http://www.kontan.co.id/index.php/keuangan/news/28307/BI-Mengkaji-Seretnya-Bunga-Kredit

[ob] Bursa India Meriah, Rupee Sumringah

2010-01-15 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Bursa India Meriah, Rupee Sumringah
 
MUMBAI.Mata uang India kian perkasa. Nilai tukar rupee terhadap dollar Amerika 
Serikat (AS) menyentuh level tertinggi dalam tiga bulan terakhir berkat 
pertumbuhan ekonomi yang pesat dan derasnya arus dana asing di bursa India.

Pada perdagangan di Mumbai pagi tadi, nilai tukar rupee terhadap dollar AS naik 
0,3% menjadi INR 45,62 per dollar AS. Sebelumnya, pada 11 Januari lalu nilai 
tukar rupee terhadap dollar AS menyentuh level terkuat sejak September 2008 di 
level INR 45,27 per dollar AS. Data otoritas bursa India menunjukkan aliran 
dana asing yang masuk ke bursa tersebut mencapai US$ 1,8 miliar pada medio 
Januari 2010. Angka pertumbuhan sektor industri manufaktur pada November 2009 
juga naik ke level tertinggi dalam dua tahun terakhir. Adapun nilai ekspor 
India bulan Desember 2009 mulai pulih setelah terpuruk selama 14 bulan 
sebelumnya.

Rupee saat ini memiliki pijakan kuat karena semua indikator di dalam negeri 
menunjukkan hal tersebut, saya tidak melihat situasi ini akan berbalik arah, 
kata Naveen Raghuvanshi, pialang valas di Development Credit Bank Ltd, Mumbai. 
Para pelaku pasar memperkirakan rupee akan ditransaksikan di leve INR 45,63 per 
dollar AS selama sebulan ke depan.

http://www.kontan.co.id/index.php/investasi/news/28293/Bursa-India-Meriah-Rupee-Sumringah

[ob] Soros Melirik Hong Kong

2010-01-15 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Soros Melirik Hong Kong
 
Keberhasilan Asia pulih cepat dari krisis membetot minat banyak perusahaan 
investasi dunia. Salah satunya, Soros Fund Management LLC. Perusahaan investasi 
milik George Soros ini dikabarkan bakal membuka kantor pertamanya di Hong Kong.

Menurut sumber Bloomberg, kemarin, kabarnya manajer investasi yang ada di New 
York, James Chang dan Dai Jixin, akan direlokasi ke Hong Kong. Cuma, juru 
bicara Soros, Michael Vachon, menolak berkomentar soal rencana ini.

Kenaikan indeks bursa Asia sangat tinggi tahun lalu. Di tahun 2009, indeks MSCI 
Asia Pasific naik 34%, setelah koreksi 43% di tahun 2008. Tren kenaikan 
diprediksi berlanjut tahun ini. Bayangan keuntungan besar membuat perusahaan 
investasi berebut meraihnya.

Tak hanya Soros, belum lama ini GLG Partners Inc juga berencana membuka kantor 
di Hong Kong pada 2010. Kondisi ini berlawanan dengan tahun 2008, saat banyak 
perusahaan investasi pergi meninggalkan kawasan itu.

http://www.kontan.co.id/index.php/internasional/news/28254/Soros-Melirik-Hong-Kong

[ob] Re: Score JANUARY EFFECT

2010-01-14 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

ihsg 2645. kalau mau ke 3000 berarti naik 13%. kalau tiap hari naik 2,12% maka 
minggu depan sampe dah ke 3000 hehehe.



--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, jsx_consultant jsx-consult...@... 
wrote:

 Score JANUARY EFFECT dari tgl 4/01/10 sampai 14/01/10
 
 Scoring by Sector:
 - http://www.obrolanbandar.com/ZZIDSUMM.TXT
 
 Scoring by Gain/loss:
 - http://www.obrolanbandar.com/ZZIDPERF.TXT

[ob] Re: N225 dan AORD ditarik

2010-01-14 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

minggu depan mungkin n225 tembus 11.000, aord tembus 5.000. kapan dow tembus 
11.000? kapan ihsg tembus 3.000??


--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, ï£« NAD ï£«  nadya...@... wrote:

 N225 dan AORD closing ditarik tuh...
 
 
 Sent from my BlackBerry®
 powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT

Re: [ob] Nasdaq: Ini pola Reversal atau bukan ?

2010-01-13 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

nasdaq malah naik 1,12%. jadi gimana statusnya secara ta sekarang?


--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, JTâ¢ jsxtra...@... wrote:

 Dow and Nasdaq Ijo Mbah. Semoga stabil sampe tutupan dah.
 
 
 www.jsxtrader.com
 
  Trade By Rules, Not HOPE 
 
 -Original Message-
 From: jsx_consultant jsx-consult...@...
 Date: Wed, 13 Jan 2010 15:39:03 
 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
 Subject: Re: [ob] Nasdaq: Ini pola Reversal atau bukan ?
 
 Kejadian2 aneh tadi siang engga bisa dianggap remeh apalagi
 pola Candle Nasdaq jelek.
 
 Embah rasa kejadian kejadian aneh tsb berhubungan dengan
 pihak yg panik karena takut dengan index Nasdaq malam ini:
 
 Embah tulis lagi kejadian2 aneh itu:
 - Sesi 1 mati, jam istirahat PLN idup
 - Mau buka sesi 2, PLN mati lagi...
 - Sekarang idup lagi, lagi diplonco nih...
 
 - Banyak yg aneh aneh hari ini:
 - 1. PLN
 - 2. Data index NASDAQ di Yahoo, dibikin kacau
 - 3. Grafik IHSG di web RTI dimatiin
 - 4. HMSP rally
 - Semalam Index Nasdaq jatuh dan menyeret US index lainnya..
 
 Kita liat aja NASIB Index Nasdaq dalam SEMINGGU ...
 
 Note:
 - TAL PLN JARANG GAGAL !!!
 
 
 
 --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, JT jsxtrader@ wrote:
 
  22.24 wib. Wah, Nasdaq merah lagi Mbah.., tapi sdh deket-deket Support trend
  line..
  
   
  
  nasdaq.png
  
   
  
  From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com]
  On Behalf Of JT
  Sent: 13 Januari 2010 21:36
  To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
  Cc: jsxtra...@yahoogroups.com
  Subject: RE: [ob] Nasdaq: Ini pola Reversal atau bukan ?
  
   
  
  
  
  
  
  
  Nasdaq Opening IJO Mbah, trendnya masih lempeng..., nothing to worry so
  far (wib 21.35)
  
   
  
  JT
  
   
  
  nasdaq.png
  
   
  
   
  
  -Original Message-
  From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com]
  On Behalf Of JT
  Sent: 13 Januari 2010 21:29
  To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
  Subject: RE: [ob] Nasdaq: Ini pola Reversal atau bukan ?
  
   
  
  Hanya dgn melihat candle, Belum bisa dibilang reversal Mbah, kalau koreksi
  
  mungkin iya, yg pasti trend sampai saat ini belum patah, coba nanti saya
  
  liat in more detail, di MS saya ngga ada data volnya nih...
  
   
  
  JT
  
   
  
  -Original Message-
  
  From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com]
  
  On Behalf Of jsx_consultant
  
  Sent: 13 Januari 2010 21:12
  
  To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
  
  Subject: [ob] Nasdaq: Ini pola Reversal atau bukan ?
  
   
  
  Tolong diliatin apakah index Nasdaq mengalami Reversal ?
  
   
  
  http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$IXIC
  
   
  
  - Pada puncaknya muncul pola Bearish Dark Cloud yg tidak
  
sempurna karena closingnya masih diatas 50% dari body
  
hari sebelumnya.
  
Note: 
  
- Dark Cloud ialah Candle awan hitam yang menutupi 
  
  sinar candle putih sebelumnya
  
  - Lalu muncul GAP turun yg cukup besar saat opening,
  
berarti market menjual barangnya beberapa point 
  
kebawah saat pasar buka. Dan dilanjutkan bearish
  
black candle.
  
   
  
  Pada bulan November terjadi pola yg mirip dan INI menjadi
  
  Correction Wave A-B-C (Turun-Naik-Lebih dalam)
  
   
  
  Apakah pola 3 candle ini sudah ada namanya dan apakah
  
  ini termasuk pola Reversal ?.
  
   
  
   
  
   
  
   
  
   
  
   
  
   
  
   
  
   
  
   
  
  
  
   
  
  + +
  
  + + + + +
  
  Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus 
  
  kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas.
  
  + + + + +
  
  + +Yahoo! Groups Links
  
   
  
   
  
   
  
  Tidak ada virus ditemukan dalam pesan masuk.
  
  Diperiksa oleh AVG - www.avg.com 
  
  Versi: 9.0.725 / Basis Data Virus: 270.14.137/2617 - Tanggal Rilis: 01/13/10
  
  14:35:00
  
   
  
   
  
   
  
   
  
  
  
   
  
  + +
  
  + + + + +
  
  Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus 
  
  kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas.
  
  + + + + +
  
  + +Yahoo! Groups Links
  
   
  
  http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/
  
   
  
  Individual Email | Traditional
  
   
  
  http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/join
  
  (Yahoo! ID required)
  
   
  
  obrolan-bandar-dig...@yahoogroups.com 
  
  obrolan-bandar-fullfeatu...@yahoogroups.com
  
   
  
  obrolan-bandar-unsubscr...@yahoogroups.com
  
   
  
  http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
  
   
  
  Tidak ada virus ditemukan dalam pesan masuk.
  
  Diperiksa oleh AVG - www.avg.com 
  
  Versi: 9.0.725 / Basis Data Virus: 270.14.137/2617 - Tanggal Rilis: 01/13/10
  14:35:00
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  Tidak ada virus ditemukan dalam pesan masuk.
  Diperiksa oleh AVG - www.avg.com
  Versi: 9.0.725 / Basis Data Virus: 270.14.137/2617 - Tanggal Rilis: 01/13/10
  14:35:00
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 + +
 + + + + +
 Mohon saat meREPLY

[ob] Re: Fwd: HI MBAH! WINDOWDRESSING

2010-01-12 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

properti dan konstruksi: domestic-driven sector, kebal pula thd serangan
fta china.



--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, It's Elaine! elainesu...@...
wrote:

 *Hi all,

 Just want to share that below was my love letter to Embah, sent about
a
 month a go when IDX was 2400. Currently my target is only 25% until
Jan-Feb
 (balanced-diversified), which translates to 30xx level, so help us
God.
 About the dollar shock, check your chart, you will know what I mean.

 The rally may be late, but it's better late than never. Laggards would
be
 Bakrie stocks, property and metal miners (I believe they're
technically
 confirmed, or whatever, JT should be able to help you). Esp on
prop/constr
 don't sell until 100% gain at least. Some of them are grossly
underpriced.
 FA enthusiasts should be able to help you.

 For 2010, you can read the letter below. That's all I can say at this
 moment. Anyway, when I was away, I learned a bit about TA, and I'd say
it's
 amazing, really. Should've done a long time ago.

 Fifi, 

  he's mine. [?] lolz.. [?]

 Elaine*

 -- Forwarded message --
 From: It's Elaine! elainesu...@...
 Date: Thu, Dec 3, 2009 at 2:40 PM
 Subject: ***HI MBAH! WINDOWDRESSING***
 To: jsx-consult...@...


 *Just want to share that this December to Jan 10, Asia Pacific is
expected
 to have two month straight window dressing, around 10-25% average
upside.
 Though the general market will be affected, laggards will play major
role so
 be prepared. Also expect to see good news (even ridiculous ones) to
flavor
 the year end rally.

 US Dollar will stay low.. or lower.. for some time. Consider stock
markets
 reversals when public thinks that USD is too low and fears that
Chinese
 Government will stop buying US treasury that will lead to debt crisis
and
 will spark hyperinflation (I call it the dollar shock), so focus on
your
 currency. Anything can happen dependending on your central bank
action. On
 the longer view, 2010 is quite volatile and sideway-ish since many
 corporations poses higher default risk. What happened in Dubai was
only a
 start.

 We're in a process of deflating and deleveraging economy. But for now,
just
 be quiet and enjoy the show. ^_^

 Elaine*

[ob] Re: Harga Properti bergerak naik

2010-01-11 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

industri properti itu demandnya domestik, jadi nggak bakal gonjang ganjing 
kayak komoditas. selain itu nggak bakal kena serbuan fta china hehehe.


--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Data Saham datasaha...@... wrote:

 
 harga saham sektor properti juga merangkak naik :)
 
 
 JAKARTA: Sejumlah pengembang mulai berani menaikkan harga properti 
 residensial baik apartemen maupun rumah biasa, menyusul tren penurunan suku 
 bunga dan membaiknya kondisi makroekonomi Indonesia.
 
 Kenaikan harga mulai terjadi secara terbatas memasuki awal tahun ini, 
 berkisar 10%-15%, setelah hampir setahun pengembang menahan penyesuaian harga 
 akibat suku bunga tinggi. Kenaikan harga residensial itu akan berlanjut dan 
 mulai marak pada paruh kedua mendatang.
 
 Presiden Direktur PT Bakrieland Development Tbk Hiramsyah S. Thaib mengatakan 
 kenaikan harga itu tidak akan mengurangi minat konsumen yang ingin membeli 
 properti residensial baik apartemen maupun rumah biasa (landed houses), 
 karena diikuti oleh tren penurunan suku bunga kredit pemilikan rumah dan 
 apartemen (KPR/KPA).
 
 Meskipun harga rumah naik, cicilannya tetap terjangkau karena bunga turun. 
 Kenaikan harga masih dalam tahap wajar, ini hanya penyesuaian, ujarnya 
 kepada Bisnis belum lama ini.
 
 Hiramsyah mengemukakan Bakrieland akan menaikkan harga rumah di Bogor Nirwana 
 Residence dan apartemen di kompleks Rasuna Epicentrum. Perseroan juga akan 
 meluncurkan sejumlah klaster baru untuk menyikapi membaiknya industri 
 properti nasional.
 
 Direktur Pemasaran Sentul City Tbk Hartan Gunadi mengatakan harga rumah di 
 Sentul City sudah naik beberapa kali secara bertahap sejak akhir tahun lalu. 
 Hunian klaster Pine Forest yang diluncurkan dengan harga awal Rp270 juta-an 
 per unit, kini sudah berada di level Rp400 juta-an per unit.
 
 Dia mengatakan selain kondisi membaik, kenaikan harga rumah di Sentul City 
 disebabkan oleh adanya akses baru jalan tol Bogor Ring Road.
 
 Hal senada dikatakan Direktur Ciputra Property Tbk Artadinata Djangkar. Dia 
 mengemukakan harga apartemen berbagai segmen sudah naik bervariasi antara 5% 
 dan 15% memasuki tahun baru. Harga apartemen mewah, katanya, sudah di atas 
 Rp20 juta per m2. Padahal, sepanjang 2009 harganya bertahan di level Rp20 
 juta per m2.
 
 Harga apartemen kelas menengah juga sudah naik mencapai Rp13 juta-Rp16 juta 
 per m2, dari harga sebelumnya yang bertahan pada level Rp12 juta per m2.
 
 Penurunan suku bunga tentu akan membantu menggairahkan pasar apartemen. Saya 
 rasa konsumen akan membeli semua produk properti pada 2010 ini, tidak hanya 
 apartemen, ujarnya saat dihubungi Bisnis.
 
 Masih terbatas
 
 Kepala Riset PT Jones Lang LaSalle Indonesia Anton Sitorus mengatakan 
 kenaikan harga properti pada awal tahun ini masih terbatas, untuk proyek 
 tertentu dan di lokasi strategis yang diminati konsumen.
 
 Pengembang yang menggarap proyek di lokasi biasa-biasa masih mempertahankan 
 harga lama.
 
 Kenaikan harga ini sebenarnya untuk menyesuaikan dengan harga bahan bangunan 
 yang sudah naik sejak tahun lalu. Jadi masih dalam tahap wajar, ujarnya 
 kemarin.
 
 Namun, langkah menaikkan harga properti residensial itu menunjukkan bahwa 
 developer mulai percaya diri.
 
 Menurut Anton, kenaikan harga properti yang serempak akan terjadi paling 
 cepat pada semester II/2010 atau paling lambat pada akhir 2010.
 
 Anton mengemukakan meskipun suku bunga acuan (BI Rate) dipertahankan di level 
 6,5%, tetapi suku bunga KPR masih berada di level 11%-12%.
 
 Pengembang dan konsumen sama-sama menunggu perbankan kembali menurunkan suku 
 bunganya, karena masih ada ruang yang cukup besar untuk penurunan bunga.
 
 Dia mengemukakan pemulihan industri properti belum dirasakan oleh semua 
 pengembang. Beberapa developer juga masih menunggu suku bunga kredit 
 konstruksi turun

[ob] 10 Ribu Mahasiswa Siap Kepung Istana 28 Januari - detik.com

2010-01-10 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Minggu, 10/01/2010 13:47 WIB
10 Ribu Mahasiswa Siap Kepung Istana 28 Januari
Amanda Ferdina - detikNews

Jakarta - Aliansi 30 kampus siap untuk menggelar aksi besar-besaran pada 28
Januari mendatang. Sebanyak 10 ribu mahasiswa akan mengepung Istana untuk
menurunkan SBY-Boediono jika pemerintah tak juga menuntaskan skandal Bank
Century.

Sekitar 10.000 orang yang nanti siap turun. Tanggal 28 Januari kita akan
duduki Istana untuk turunkan paksa SBY-Boediono, ujar juru bicara mahasiswa,
Anton Cornelo di Kampus STMIK Jayakarta Jl Salemba Raya, Jakarta, Minggu
(10/1/2010).

Menurutnya, saat ini waktu yang tepat untuk melakukan revolusi. Anton meminta
agar seluruh eleman mahasiswa dapat menyatukan kekuatan dan menjadikan tanggal
22-28 Januari sebagai tanggal hitam dalam kalender bangsa.

Menjelang tanggal 28 (Januari), akan ada aksi tiap-tiap kampus tanggal 22-24
Januari dan aksi besar-besaran bersama jaringan kampus tanggal 25. Setelah itu
pendudukan Gedung DPR dan Istana tanggal 28, jelasnya.

Aksi ini, bukan hanya diikuti oleh mahasiswa namun juga oleh rakyat. Kita
minta seluruh kekuatan rakyat untuk sama-sama terlibat, pintanya.

Anton juga menegaskan jika gerakan mereka murni dari kampus. Gerakan ini bukan
sekedar kerumunan dan tidak ditunggangi dari parpol, murni dari mahasiswa,
ucap mahasiswa Unkrisna itu.

30 Aliansi Kampus tersebut antara lain berasal dari UNKRISNA Jatiwaringin,
STTJ, UKI, STMIK Jayakarta, YAI, UMJ, UIN, TRISAKTI, UPB, UBK, Universitas
Sahid, dan IISIP.

http://www.detiknews.com/read/2010/01/10/134748/1275234/10/10-ribu-mahasiswa-siap-kepung-istana-28-januari?991102605

ayo, bd kejar tayang donk.

Re: Bls: [ob] BREAKING NEWS ! EL IS BACK !! Pilahan Jiwamu Telah Kembali Jend A9. Mari kita lebih ramaikan OB !

2010-01-10 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

bukankah biasanya dia minta diskon?


--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, JT jsxtra...@... wrote:

 Buset dah.., belum juga nongol orangnya udah pada hebohâ¦., heheheâ¦..,  si 
 EL ini memang LUAR BIASA.., ayo EL, cepet nongol lagi.., ngga ada loe ngga 
 rame !!
 
  
 
 JT
 
  
 
  
 
 From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] 
 On Behalf Of A9
 Sent: 10 Januari 2010 22:24
 To: Ob group
 Subject: Re: Bls: [ob] BREAKING NEWS ! EL IS BACK !! Pilahan Jiwamu Telah 
 Kembali Jend A9. Mari kita lebih ramaikan OB !
 
  
 
 
 Hahahahaha.
 
 Welcome back my dear..!
 
 A9
 
   _  
 
 From: dario kurniawan darioamran1...@... 
 
 Date: Sun, 10 Jan 2010 23:13:12 +0800 (SGT)
 
 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
 
 Subject: Bls: [ob] BREAKING NEWS ! EL IS BACK !! Pilahan Jiwamu Telah Kembali 
 Jend A9. Mari kita lebih ramaikan OB !
 
  
 
 
 sebelum ada EL belakangan ini aja email udah rame...gimana ada dia 
 lagiwah ane mau bikin email baru aja deh buat email2 non milis...takut 
 kelebihan deleteatau ada saran lain biar ga perlu bikin email baru tapi 
 tetap terlihat ga rame akun ane ??
 
 Dario Amran
 
 --- Pada Ming, 10/1/10, Dumb Fish dumbfish2...@... menulis:
 
 
 Dari: Dumb Fish dumbfish2...@...
 Judul: [ob] BREAKING NEWS ! EL IS BACK !! Pilahan Jiwamu Telah Kembali Jend 
 A9. Mari kita lebih ramaikan OB !
 Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
 Tanggal: Minggu, 10 Januari, 2010, 10:04 PM
 
   
 
 JSX Rise significantly as the plan of re-emerging Elaine to OB
 
  
 
 and OB replied Welcome Back El :)
 
  
 
 Elaine telah merampungkan niatnya untuk kembali ke OB , tapi sebelum dia 
 memulai comment .. telah diwanti wanti Please No Hate Email
 
 Marilah kita saling menghargai, benar maupun salah itu wajar, yang kita 
 perlukan itu kebersamaan dan saling sharing ilmu, dan saya yakin Elaine juga 
 rindu dengan temen temen di OB, bukankah begitu Elaine ? 
 
  
 
 Tanpa Elaine OB terasa aga hambar, kurang micinnya :). Bukankah begitu teman 
 teman ? yang pasti Jend paling senang deh kl El balik ke OB
 
 Jend.. Cintamu Bungamu Jiwamu Mataharimu Permaisurimu telah kembali. Dah 
 bisa ngasih komando lagi dong Jend sekarang di room ?
 
  
 
 *puff* *gone*  :)
 
  
 
   _  
 
 Akses 
 http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylc=X3oDMTFndmQxc2JlBHRtX2RtZWNoA1RleHQgTGluawR0bV9sbmsDVTExMDM0NjkEdG1fbmV0A1lhaG9vIQ--/SIG=11kadq57p/**http%3A/downloads.yahoo.com/id/internetexplorer/
   email lebih cepat. 
 Yahoo! menyarankan Anda meng-upgrade browser ke Internet Explorer 8 baru yang 
 dioptimalkan untuk Yahoo! Dapatkan 
 http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylc=X3oDMTFndmQxc2JlBHRtX2RtZWNoA1RleHQgTGluawR0bV9sbmsDVTExMDM0NjkEdG1fbmV0A1lhaG9vIQ--/SIG=11kadq57p/**http%3A/downloads.yahoo.com/id/internetexplorer/
   di sini! (Gratis) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Tidak ada virus ditemukan dalam pesan masuk.
 Diperiksa oleh AVG - www.avg.com
 Versi: 9.0.725 / Basis Data Virus: 270.14.132/2610 - Tanggal Rilis: 01/10/10 
 14:35:00

Re: [ob] Bakrieland Gelar MESOP di Harga Rp221

2010-01-09 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

pantes kemarin manajemen lempar wacana right issue. dengan begitu harga
rata2 mesop jadi rendah. hebat tricknya insider.

biasanya harga elty ngikut harga bumi. biasanya ratio-nya 1 banding 10
atau 8. tapi sejak kena rumor right issue dan kena badai krisis dubai
world rationya jadi 12-13. kalau rumor udah clear harusnya bisa balik ke
awal, secara mungkin bdnya 1 group.
  [Photobucket] 
http://s944.photobucket.com/albums/ad285/victorsperandeo/?action=viewc\
urrent=BUMI-ELTY.jpg





--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, ND nyariduit...@... wrote:

 Mesop itu maksudnya hak untuk membeli saham pada harga tertentu oleh
management dan karyawan.

 Dalam hal ini pada harga 221. Jadi mereka dijatah untuk membeli saham
di harga 221, bukannya gratis.biasanya lebih rendah dari harga pasar,
kalo nggak ya mending beli di pasar.

 Saham ini bisa dari treasury stock, atau dari saham penerbitan baru.
 Kalo dari berita dibawah tidak jelas apa treasury stock atau saham
baru.

 Intinya, management dan karyawan aja mau beli di harga 221, kenapa
kita nggak?? Mereka kan lebih tau jeroannya..

 Salam,

 ND


 Powered by NDBerryÂ®

 -Original Message-
 From: Bozz Traders powerman.tra...@...
 Date: Fri, 8 Jan 2010 14:01:27
 To: Obrolan Bandar (OB)obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
 Subject: Re: [ob] Bakrieland Gelar MESOP di Harga Rp221

 Mesop itu apa yah, nggak mudeng nih, bisa dijelasin sama senior.


 Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerryÂ® The Lord is my shepherd, I shall
not be in want.

 -Original Message-
 From: -Candra Wu wu_can...@...
 Date: Fri, 8 Jan 2010 11:18:03
 To: obobrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com
 Subject: [ob] Bakrieland Gelar MESOP di Harga Rp221


 INILAH.COM, Jakarta - PT Bakrieland Development Tbk (ELTY) akan
melaksanakan management employee stock option plan (MESOP) sebanyak
653,26 juta opsi dengan harga Rp221.

 Demikian diungkapkan Direktur Utama Bakrieland Hiramsyah S. Thaib
kepada BEI, Jumat (8/1). Ia menguraikan, harga ini merupakan 90% dari
harga rata-rata penutupan 25 hari bursa terakhir berturut-turut di pasar
reguler sebelum pelaporan ke bursa pada 5 Juni 2009.

 Periode pelaksanaan konversi MESOP menjadi saham dilaksanakan 30 hari
bursa mulai 15 Januari 2010. Jumlah keseluruhan MESOP dengan hak
konversi yang masih berlaku sebanyak 980 juta opsi, kata Hiramsyah.

 Sementara itu, jumlah MESOP yang berhak untuk dikonversi pada periode
pelaksanaan konversi sebanyak 653,26 juta opsi. [san/cms]

[ob] Re: IPO Garuda Q1 2010, Mau Ikut?

2010-01-09 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

kayaknya dikarbit. cara biar bmri bisa exit dari debt-to-equity swap?



--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Raja Cumi cumie...@... wrote:

 9 Januari 2010 | 19.34 WIB
 Garuda Segera Go Public
 http://m.kompas.com/news/read/data/2010.01.09.1934225
 
 KOMPAS/IWAN SETIYAWAN
 
 BANDA ACEH, KOMPAS.com  Menteri Negara BUMN Mustafa Abu bakar
 mengatakan, PT Garuda Indonesia akan go public menjadi perusahaan yang
 terdaftar dengan metode penawaran saham perdana (initial public
 offering/IPO) yang diluncurkan kuartal-I 2010.
 Kita doakan mendapat sambutan masyarakat investor, sehingga saham
 yang akan dilepas nanti akan mencapai target, katanya pada
 pencanangan program lingkungan Garuda bekerja sama dengan Yayasan
 Leuser Internasional (YLI) di Banda Aceh, Sabtu (9/1/2010).
 Ia menyatakan, PT Garuda akan melepaskan 25 persen sahamnya ke publik
 untuk memperkuat modal yang nilainya sekarang sebesar Rp 2,5 triliun.
 Mustafa menyampaikan apresiasi kepada PT Garuda yang menempati bintang
 empat sehingga satu tingkat lagi mencapai bintang lima dan merupakan
 bintang tertinggi yang dimiliki airline dunia.
 Kita berharap PT Garuda yang merupakan binaan Kementerian BUMN ini
 bisa mencapai bintang lima, sehingga program go public bisa berjalan
 lancar, ujarnya pada acara yang turut dihadiri Dirut PT Garuda
 Emirsyah Satar dan Gubernur Aceh Irwandi Yusuf.
 PT Garuda Indonesia optimis penawaran umum saham perdana (IPO) akan
 terealisasi pada semester I-2010 dan proses persiapan IPO sudah
 dilakukan, termasuk menjaring penjamin emisi (underwriter), kata
 Emirsyah Satar.
 Menurut Emirsyah, IPO merupakan rangkaian dari restrukturisasi
 perusahaan demi meningkatkan kinerja perseroan. Dana hasil IPO
 tersebut diperkirakan mencapai 300 juta dollar Amerika Serikat (AS).
 Hasil emisi saham akan digunakan untuk membiayai penambahan pesawat
 dan peremajaan pesawat, termasuk peningkatan kualitas layanan,
 tegasnya.
 Menurut dia, IPO akan sangat tergantung pada kondisi pasar dan
 perusahaan akan menyesuaikan dengan perkembangan pasar modal dalam
 negeri. Dia mengatakan, jumlah pesawat Garuda hingga 2014 nanti akan
 ditingkatkan menjadi 116 unit dari saat ini 67 unit dan ini salah satu
 usaha membantu konsumen dalam dan luar negeri.
 Peningkatan jumlah armada juga diiringi penambahan rute dan frekuensi
 penerbangan sehingga menjadi sekitar 3.000 penerbangan per minggu,
 dari saat ini sekitar 1.700 penerbangan per minggu.
 
 © 2008 KOMPAS.com. All rights reserved
 
 -- 
 ===
 Cumi memang enak!

[ob] Re: Bagaimana Nasib Dollar AS 2010?

2010-01-07 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Jan. 7 (Bloomberg Multimedia) -- The Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest 
rates low for a longer period than traders anticipate as U.S. inflation remains 
subdued and the economy grows less than its potential, an analysis shows.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109sid=a_oY46gAxhHApos=10



--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Hendri Cendra Arcan han...@... wrote:

 http://bisniskeuangan.kompas.com/read/xml/2009/12/21/13462564/Bagaimana.Nasib..Dollar.AS.2010
 
 
 Senin, 21 Desember 2009 | 13:46 WIB
 KOMPAS.com - Pada akhir 2009 kita melihat fenomena penguatan dollar AS
 terhadap mata uang utama lainnya. Apakah penguatan dollar AS tersebut
 akan menjadi tren di 2010 atau hanya sementara saja?
 
 Dollar AS telah tertekan cukup lama hampir sepanjang tahun 2009 karena
 mulai pulihnya perekonomian baik di AS maupun di luar AS. Stimulus
 besar-besaran yang dikucurkan oleh pemerintahan negara-negara dunia
 sangat membantu negara-negara yang terpuruk perekonomiannya untuk
 keluar dari keterpurukannya. Investor pun mulai mencari dan menanamkan
 dananya ke investasi yang menawarkan imbal hasil yang lebih besar
 dibandingkan dengan dollar AS.
 
 Di pasar keuangan, nilai produk-produk investasi bergerak naik. Indeks
 saham, komoditas, dan mata uang ber-yield tinggi, semuanya berada di
 level atas. Sentimen investor telah berkembang menjadi positif
 terhadap pemulihan ekonomi.
 
 Data-data fundamental ekonomi yang telah dirilis tahun 2009
 menunjukkan peningkatan walaupun masih belum stabil. Dimulai dari
 kawasan uni Eropa yang sudah mulai lebih dahulu keluar dari resesi.
 Jerman dan Perancis, dua negara dengan perekonomian terbesar di Uni
 Eropa, telah keluar dari resesi pada akhir kuartal ke-2 disusul oleh
 Jepang juga keluar dari resesi pada akhir kuartal ke-2. Keseluruhan
 uni Eropa telah berhasil keluar dari resesi pada kuartal ke-3 demikian
 pula dengan AS yang pertumbuhan GDP-nya pada kuartal-3 sangat luar
 biasa.
 
 Dengan pertumbuhan GDP yang sudah positif dan didukung dengan
 data-data fundamental ekonomi lainnya yang sudah mulai membaik,
 sekarang muncul wacana kapan pemangku kebijakan mulai melakukan exit
 strategy untuk menarik stimulus.
 
 Bank sentral Australia sudah menaikan suku bunganya sebanyak 3 kali
 menjelang akhir 2009. Total kenaikan sebesar 75 basis poin menjadi
 3,75 persen. Di Eropa, kepala bank sentral Eropa, Trichet sudah
 melemparkan wacana untuk menarik stimulus. Dan di AS pun muncul wacana
 yang sama. Banyak analis memperkirakan Federal Reserve akan
 mempercepat kenaikan suku bunga AS yang kemungkinan terjadi pada
 pertengahan 2010 dengan mempertimbangkan kondisi sektor tenaga kerja
 yang laju penghentian tenaga kerjanya mulai turun drastis.
 
 Data Non Farm Payroll terakhir menunjukkan penurunan yang luar biasa
 pada laju penghentian tenaga kerja tersebut, dari minus111 ribu orang
 pekerja pada bulan Oktober menjadi hanya minus11 ribu orang pekerja
 pada bulan November.
 
 Wacana tersebut sempat membuat dollar AS menguat terhadap mata uang
 dunia. Tapi apakah penguatan dollar AS ini akan berlanjut di 2010?
 
 Dalam rapat kebijakan terakhir 2009, Federal Reserve masih
 mengeluarkan pernyataan yang sama seperti rapat sebelumnya yaitu
 mempertahankan suku bunga rendah untuk waktu yang belum ditentukan.
 Tapi pernyataannya lebih optimistik dibandingkan sebelumnya dengan
 menambahkan bahwa perekonomian terus membaik dan penurunan dalam pasar
 tenaga kerja sudah berkurang.
 
 Tampaknya bank sentral AS ini masih akan menunggu perkembangan
 data-data ekonomi hingga pertengahan tahun 2010 sebelum memutuskan
 untuk menaikkan suku bunganya.
 
 Pemerintah AS sampai akhir 2009 juga masih mempertahankan beberapa
 stimulus dan bahkan memperpanjangnya hingga tahun 2010. Beberapa
 stimulus yang diperpanjang antara lain, TARP, sektor perumahan, sektor
 lapangan pekerjaan dll. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa pemulihan ekonomi
 yang ada sekarang masih belum stabil dan masih menyimpan resiko
 ekonomi dapat kembali masuk ke lubang resesi. Menurunkan tingkat
 pengangguran yang tinggi menjadi isu utama di 2010.
 
 ECB juga tampaknya masih akan mempertahankan suku bunga untuk
 sementara waktu. Dalam konferensi pers menanggapi keputusan suku bunga
 yang terakhir, Presiden ECB, Jean Claude Trichet tidak memberikan
 indikasi untuk menaikan suku bunga dalam waktu dekat tapi sudah
 memberikan indikasi untuk menarik sebagian stimulusnya.
 Sementara Inggris masih tertinggal dibandingkan AS dan uni Eropa.
 
 GDP Inggris masih negatif yang berarti belum keluar dari resesi
 sehingga kemungkinan masih mempertahankan kebijakan moneter yang
 longgar untuk waktu yang lebih lama. Satu hal yang bagus dari Inggris
 adalah data jumlah orang yang mengklaim tunjangan pengangguran
 mengalami penurunan tajam yang menandakan pasar tenaga kerja mulai
 membaik.
 
 SNB (Bank sentral Swiss) akan menarik stimulus dengan menghentikan
 pembelian obligasi perusahaan di 2010. Banyak analis memperkirakan SNB
 kemungkinan akan

[ob] Pimco to Start Global Stock Fund Amid Equity Push

2010-01-03 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Pimco to Start Global Stock Fund Amid Equity Push (Update1)
By Miles Weiss

Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., the world's largest 
manager of bonds, filed with U.S. regulators to start a stock mutual fund that 
can also invest in bank loans, junk bonds and distressed securities.

Pimco Global Opportunities Fund will buy securities and financial instruments 
economically tied to at least three countries, one of which may be the U.S., 
according to a registration statement filed today with the U.S. Securities and 
Exchange Commission. The fund will be able to purchase shares in companies of 
all sizes.

Chief Executive Officer Mohamed El-Erian this month hired Neel Kashkari, former 
head of the U.S. Treasury's bank-rescue program, as well as Franklin Resources 
Inc.'s Anne Gudefin and Charles Lahr, to help the company expand the range of 
products it's offering investors. Pimco Global Opportunity could position the 
Newport Beach, California-based company to reap the benefits of an investor 
shift from bond to stock funds.

Pimco is a bond shop, but I think they have a view that bonds will 
under-perform stocks on a pretty regular basis in the future, said A. Michael 
Lipper, the head of Lipper Advisory Services Inc., a Summit, New Jersey-based 
investment adviser. Now they are hedging.

Pimco, a unit of Munich-based insurer Allianz SE, had about $940 billion in 
assets under management as of Sept. 30. More than 90 percent of that was in 
bonds.

Team From Franklin

Today's filing didn't disclose who will manage the Pimco Global Opportunity 
Fund. A spokesman for Pimco couldn't immediately be reached for comment.

Gudefin and Lahr had jointly managed the $15.6 billion Franklin Mutual Global 
Discovery Fund for San Mateo, California- based Franklin Resources. As of June 
30, the Global Discovery fund had generated an average annual return of 7.6 
percent since starting in January 2002, according to its semiannual report to 
shareholders.

Pimco Global Opportunities shares several features with the Franklin fund that 
Lahr and Gudefin ran, according to filings. Both funds list capital 
appreciation as their primary investment objective and both employ the Morgan 
Stanley Capital International World Index and the Standard  Poor's 500 Index 
as benchmarks.

The Pimco fund will use a bottom-up investment style in which managers seek 
securities they consider undervalued, the firm said in the filing. Managers at 
Pimco will base their assessments on criteria such as asset value, book value, 
cash flow and earnings estimates, according to the document.

In addition to stocks, Pimco Global Opportunity can invest in U.S. and foreign 
government debt, bank loans and high-yield bonds, the filing said. It can also 
acquire securities of distressed companies and engage in short sales, a trading 
strategy that generates profits when stocks decline.

[ob] Petisi 28 Ancam Gelar Aksi untuk Turunkan SBY

2010-01-03 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Minggu, 03/01/2010 15:12 WIB
Petisi 28 Ancam Gelar Aksi untuk Turunkan SBY
Hery Winarno - detikNews

Jakarta - Kelompok Petisi 28 yang rajin mengkritisi pemerintah, mengancam akan 
mengerahkan massa untuk menurunkan Presiden SBY. SBY dinilai gagal 
menyejahterakan rakyat Indonesia. 

Kita akan lakukan aksi tanggal 9, 10 dan 11 Januari di KPK. Puncaknya tanggal 
28 Januari kita akan mendatangi Istana supaya SBY mundur. SBY  gagal membawa 
kesejahteraan kepada negeri ini, kata anggota Petisi 28, Adhi Massardi, di 
Doekoen Coffee, Jl Pasar Minggu, Jakarta Selatan, Minggu (3/1/2009).

Petisi 28 menyatakan saat ini ada 175 juta hektar tanah dikuasi asing. Selain 
itu juga banyak kebijakan yang memprihatinkan seperti pencabutan subsidi yang 
kontraproduktif terhadap kesejahteraan rakyat. 

Kalau SBY tidak mau mundur maka dengan sangat terpaksa kita akan himpun 
masyarakat untuk terjun ke jalan untuk menggulingkan SBY, kata jubir Gus Dur 
saat masih sebagai presiden ini.

Sementara itu, pengamat politik Boni Hargens menyatakan ada dua cara untuk 
menentukan pengganti SBY. Cara pertama adalah melalui rembug nasional dengan 
tokoh-tokoh nasional untuk menentukan pengganti SBY.

Cara yang lain dalah dengan revolusi. Tapi untuk revolusi masih sulit karena 
kesadaran masyarakat beru di tingkat menengah, katanya.

http://www.detiknews.com/read/2010/01/03/151255/1270672/10/petisi-28-ancam-gelar-aksi-untuk-turunkan-sby?991102605

Re: [ob] Petisi 28 Ancam Gelar Aksi untuk Turunkan SBY

2010-01-03 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

kalau jaman soeharto, berita kayak gini udah dicap makar.



--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, JsxSniper jsxsni...@... wrote:

 Ini bah berita menjatuhkan IDX bukan SBY..
 Wakaka..
 -One shoot-
 
 www.financestockinfo.blogspot.com
 
 
 -Original Message-
 From: victor_sperandeo victor_speran...@...
 Date: Sun, 03 Jan 2010 08:53:09 
 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
 Subject: [ob] Petisi 28 Ancam Gelar Aksi untuk Turunkan SBY
 
 Minggu, 03/01/2010 15:12 WIB
 Petisi 28 Ancam Gelar Aksi untuk Turunkan SBY
 Hery Winarno - detikNews
 
 Jakarta - Kelompok Petisi 28 yang rajin mengkritisi pemerintah, mengancam 
 akan mengerahkan massa untuk menurunkan Presiden SBY. SBY dinilai gagal 
 menyejahterakan rakyat Indonesia. 
 
 Kita akan lakukan aksi tanggal 9, 10 dan 11 Januari di KPK. Puncaknya 
 tanggal 28 Januari kita akan mendatangi Istana supaya SBY mundur. SBY  gagal 
 membawa kesejahteraan kepada negeri ini, kata anggota Petisi 28, Adhi 
 Massardi, di Doekoen Coffee, Jl Pasar Minggu, Jakarta Selatan, Minggu 
 (3/1/2009).
 
 Petisi 28 menyatakan saat ini ada 175 juta hektar tanah dikuasi asing. Selain 
 itu juga banyak kebijakan yang memprihatinkan seperti pencabutan subsidi yang 
 kontraproduktif terhadap kesejahteraan rakyat. 
 
 Kalau SBY tidak mau mundur maka dengan sangat terpaksa kita akan himpun 
 masyarakat untuk terjun ke jalan untuk menggulingkan SBY, kata jubir Gus Dur 
 saat masih sebagai presiden ini.
 
 Sementara itu, pengamat politik Boni Hargens menyatakan ada dua cara untuk 
 menentukan pengganti SBY. Cara pertama adalah melalui rembug nasional dengan 
 tokoh-tokoh nasional untuk menentukan pengganti SBY.
 
 Cara yang lain dalah dengan revolusi. Tapi untuk revolusi masih sulit karena 
 kesadaran masyarakat beru di tingkat menengah, katanya.
 
 http://www.detiknews.com/read/2010/01/03/151255/1270672/10/petisi-28-ancam-gelar-aksi-untuk-turunkan-sby?991102605

Re: [ob] ELTY-DIVERGENCE???

2009-12-21 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

gak ada window dressing, bargain hunting pun jadi. diskon 60-70 dr nav???

--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, 5'2 h15...@... wrote:

 Hihi
 Welah ditantangin ama OM DE gak brani ane bang
 
 Masih ingusan saya *
 *sambil ngelap umbel
 
 
 Saya sih antri d kisaran ntu aja ya kalo mantul 184 boleh lah om telat dikit
 
 With U absolutly can get it free, without U I'm Nothing
 
 -Original Message-
 From: Dean Earwicker dean.earwic...@...
 Date: Mon, 21 Dec 2009 14:55:48 
 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
 Subject: Re: [ob] ELTY-DIVERGENCE???
 
 Saya brani 180. Situ brani ga?
 
 2009/12/21 h153tu h15...@...
 
 
 
  ELTY
 
  Wuih kok divergence ya?
  MFI+PRICE?
 
  Brani copet?
  Tapi trend turun sich...
  Rata2 Price Channel 205
  Kalo mw copet 177

[ob] Re: BUMI RABU BESOK 16 DES

2009-12-15 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

tanpa sayap = tanpa volume???


--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, iching_prediction 
iching_predict...@... wrote:

 hexagram 36.1 darkening of the light to 15 modestyterbang tanpa sayap.

Re: Bls: [ob] Pada Nungguin Window Dressing yah...? HAHAHAHA...

2009-12-15 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

menyerahlah kamerad hehehe.
mending liburan dulu aja deh.



--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, dario kurniawan darioamran1...@... 
wrote:

 mudah2an bozz kasih THR yapayah dah..kita kejepit issue politik...mau 
 bursa lain terbang kita mah nyengir aja iri ati...
 Â Dario Amran 
 
 
 
 
 
 Dari: bayu_kusuma_wardh...@... bayu_kusuma_wardh...@...
 Kepada: Obrolan bandar obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
 Terkirim: Sen, 14 Desember, 2009 15:50:33
 Judul: Re: [ob] Pada Nungguin Window Dressing yah...? HAHAHAHA...
 
 Â  
 Saya si nunggu market closing pak
 
 
 
 
 Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerryÂ®
 
 
 From: kucing_liar1 kucing_liar1@ yahoo.com 
 Date: Mon, 14 Dec 2009 08:46:03 -
 To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com
 Subject: [ob] Pada Nungguin Window Dressing yah...? HAHAHAHA...
 Â  
 
 
 weittsszz... ente2 pade nungguin wondow dressing yah? hahahaha... 
 
 Happy Waiting ya...miaaauuwww ww..
 
 
 
 
 
   
 ___
 Dapatkan nama yang Anda sukai!
 Sekarang Anda dapat memiliki email di @ymail.com dan @rocketmail.com.
 http://mail.promotions.yahoo.com/newdomains/id/

[ob] BNBR Berniat Tambah Saham di BUMI dan ELTY

2009-12-13 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

http://www.kontan.co.id/index.php/epaper

apa ini skema kantong kiri kantong kanan lagi seperti tahun 2008?

http://www.kontan.co.id/index.php/investasi/news/26375/Saham-Bakrie-di-Anak-Usaha-Kian-Tipis

[ob] Production, Home Starts Probably Climbed: U.S. Economy Preview

2009-12-13 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Production, Home Starts Probably Climbed: U.S. Economy Preview



By Bob Willis

Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Industries in the U.S. boosted production in November 
for a fifth consecutive month and housing starts rebounded, showing the world's 
largest economy is picking up speed heading into 2010, economists said before 
reports this week.

A 0.5 percent gain in output last month, based on the median estimate of 62 
economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of a Federal Reserve report Dec. 
15, would follow a 0.1 percent October advance. Builders may have broken ground 
on 579,000 houses at an annual pace, up 9.5 percent.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week said the economy faces formidable 
headwinds, signaling policy makers may reiterate a pledge to keep interest 
rates low following their last meeting of the year this week. Gains in consumer 
spending and lean inventories are prompting companies such as Ford Motor Co. to 
rev up assembly lines, giving the expansion a lift.

Businesses are scrambling to slow the considerable pace of inventory decline 
against a backdrop of expanding sales, including rising exports and some pickup 
in domestic demand, said Aaron Smith, a senior economist at Moody's 
Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania. Part of manufacturing with ties to 
housing and the consumer will take the handoff from autos and drive 
manufacturing gains this quarter.

The Fed's industrial production figures may show the proportion of plant 
capacity in use probably rose to 71.1 percent from 70.7 percent, according to 
the survey median.

Auto Sales

Auto sales are climbing again after plunging in September, the month after the 
government's cash-for-clunkers plan expired. General Motors Co., Toyota Motor 
Corp., Ford and Chrysler Group LLC all posted November sales that beat analysts 
estimates. The seasonally adjusted sales rate was 10.9 million vehicles, up 
from 10.45 million in October, according to industry figures released this 
month.

Ford, the only major U.S. automaker to avoid bankruptcy, plans to boost 
first-quarter North American production by 58 percent from a year earlier to 
550,000 vehicles.

Deere  Co., the world's largest maker of farm equipment, last week said early 
order combine sales in North America, those for equipment that won't be used 
until the middle of next year, topped its estimates and November demand was 
better than anticipated.

Bottom line -- business has strengthened a bit from what we were expecting, 
Marie Ziegler, vice president of investor relations, said at a presentation 
Dec. 10.

Exports, Dollar

Manufacturers are benefiting from rising demand overseas as the global economy 
recovers from the worst slump since World War II. A 12 percent drop in the 
value of the dollar from a four-year high on March 3 against its major trading 
partners is making American goods more competitive. Exports have risen for six 
consecutive months since reaching a three-year low in April.

The Standard  Poor's 500 Index is up 4.7 percent so far this quarter after 
rising 32 percent in the six months to September, the biggest two-quarter gain 
since 1975, on signs the economy was improving.

A report from the Commerce Department on Dec. 16 may show housing starts 
rebounded last month after dropping 11 percent in October. Concern over the 
looming expiration of a government tax credit and the wettest October in more 
than a century of record-keeping held back builders that month, economists said.

A federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers, due to expire on Nov. 30, was 
extended last month until April 30 and expanded to include current owners. The 
incentive had helped boost sales and construction, marking stabilization in the 
housing market from the worst slump since the 1930s.

Consumer Prices

The rebound in global growth and the drop in the dollar have also pushed fuel 
costs up. Consumer prices probably rose 0.4 percent in November on higher 
gasoline prices, according to the survey median before a Labor Department 
report Dec. 16. Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.1 
percent after a 0.2 percent October gain, the survey showed.

Bernanke, in comments Dec. 7 at the Economic Club of Washington, cited a weak 
labor market and tight credit as ongoing drags likely to keep the pace of 
expansion moderate. The Fed's decision on interest rates is due Dec. 16, at 
the end of two days of meetings.

[ob] Solusi Untuk Recovery Ekonomi US: Goreng Dow Jones!

2009-12-08 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Bull-in-Chief
Daniel Fisher, 12.04.09, 09:00 AM EST
Forbes Asia Magazine dated December 14, 2009
The U.S. President could use a Bill Clinton-style stock market rally.

President Obama had better pray for a rally, bigger than the one that's already
taken the Standard Poor's 500 average up 64% from its low this year. A
continued stock market boom is one of the few things that will pump enough
money into the economy to make a dent in the huge projected deficits ahead.
It's called the wealth effect: People spend more when they think they're worth
more. Rallies also pump money into the U.S. Treasury, as rich people take
profits and pay tax on them.

Even without a new health care entitlement, the federal deficit is expected to
hit 11% of gross domestic product by the end of this year. That's up from 1.8%
in 2007. The interest tab will climb to 2.6% of GDP from 2% in 2007, held down
only by the Federal Reserve's voracious purchases of Treasurys and
mortgage-backed bonds.

Economist Ray C. Fair of Yale University estimates that without big changes in
policy, the national debt will rise to 75% of GDP by 2020 from 50% now, while
interest expense will rise to 4.3% of GDP.

Some economists have suggested the government should let the dollar fall. It
seems like a clever idea, because a cheaper dollar not only boosts American
exports but also cheats foreign holders of Treasury debt by paying them in
debased currency. But it won't work, says Fair, because the falling dollar
eventually will increase inflation (Saudi Arabia will demand more dollars for
its oil) and drive up interest rates and therefore the cost of servicing the
debt.

For every one-percentage-point increase in inflation, the Fed can be expected
to raise short-term interest rates by 0.86 of a percentage point, he says. That
just raises the cost of rolling over Treasury bills. At the same time,
consumers will reduce spending as inflation erodes their real earnings and
perceived wealth. You cannot inflate your way out of the debt problem, says
Fair.

The two other paths to lower deficits are raising taxes or lowering spending.
They both can get the job done but at enormous cost to the economy. A permanent
tax increase equal to 4% of GDP, or $500 billion a year, would keep the
debt-to-GDP ratio in 2020 at 47% but cost $3 trillion in economic output over
that period. Cutting federal spending risks nearly the same backfiring effect
because so many dollars now flow directly to households.

So what's left to fight the red ink? That massive stock market rally. Since
households spend 4 cents of every $1 in increase in wealth, a 30% increase in
the $14.3 trillion U.S. stock market next year would pump $170 billion into
spending. With the doubling effect as those dollars cascade through the
economy, that would be the equivalent of a $340 billion stimulus program. Bill
Clinton was the recipient of such a gift when the SP climbed 230% between 1993
and 1999. But remember what happened afterward: The market plunged 45% as the
tech bubble burst.

An Obama rally of 30% would require the SP to climb past its current
price/earnings multiple of 21 times estimated 2010 earnings of $53 a share to
something more like a 27 p/e. Then we're back in bubble territory. Says Fair,
You can't run an economy forever on the basis of the stock market going up.

http://www.forbes.com/global/2009/1214/companies-president-obama-clinton-stocks-bull-in-chief.html

[ob] Suspension of Disbelief: Rally Has Further to Go

2009-12-07 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Suspension of Disbelief: Rally Has Further to Go, Bernie Schaeffer Says

Posted Dec 07, 2009 09:46am EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession

Friday's disappointing response to the strong jobs report, and weakness early 
Monday, has some observers once again calling for the end of the bull market.

It is precisely this kind of skepticism that makes Bernie Schaeffer, chairman 
of Schaeffer's Investment Research, believe the rally still has further to go.

The juxtaposition of strong upside price action and continued skepticism and 
outright bearishness -- that is a very bullish sign, Schaeffer says. There's 
a lot of money on the sidelines that has not been committed to the market. 
People talk their positions. Until they start accepting and getting 
enthusiastic [about stocks] it's an indication there's more money to power the 
market higher.

The veteran market watcher says there are four major stages of investor 
sentiment: despair, disbelief, acceptance and euphoria.

If March was the moment of despair - when bearishness reaches its apex - 
sentiment is currently in the disbelief stage, Schaeffer says, citing the 
following:

* The Dumb Money: Through October, equity mutual funds had net outflows of 
$1.9 billion year to date while bond funds had inflows of about $312 billion, 
according to the ICI. Furthermore, there's been about $10 billion of inflows 
into inverse funds that short the market, Schaeffer notes. It not even that 
money is not coming off the sidelines - [investors are] betting against the 
market.
* Magazine Indicators: In 1982, a Business Week cover declared The Death 
of Equities, perhaps the most famous contrarian indicator in history. More 
recently, Time proclaimed Why it's time to retire the 401(k) in October, 
while Newsweek weighed with a Boom and Gloom cover story, which basically 
dismissed the validity of the market's recovery. Such covers in general 
interest magazines suggests how negativity about the markets permeates popular 
culture, Schaeffer says.
* Guru Chatter: There's a lot of talk these days about the New Normal, 
characterized by high unemployment and sluggish economic growth. That may well 
prove true but to Schaeffer, it's a mirror image of the New Economy chatter 
circa 2000. Similarly, there's a lot of talk now about the death of buy and 
hold. Schaeffer is a market timer but says now probably is a better time for 
buy and hold-type investing vs. 10 years ago.

Add it all up and sentiment suggests the rally has further to go, Schaeffer 
says, suggesting the SP could ultimately double from its March low of 666, 
giving a target of 1332 or 20% higher than current levels.

One more (meta) thought: part of Schaeffer's bullish thesis is that it's easier 
to invest when the market is transitioning from despair to euphoria, as he 
believes is currently the case. In other words, that sentiment works best when 
it's not at an extreme, which itself runs contrary to the popular consensus 
about sentiment.

[ob] The Old Normal

2009-12-07 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

The Old Normal
Ken Fisher, 11.29.09, 06:00 PM EST
Forbes Magazine dated December 14, 2009
A decade ahead of lackluster earnings and economic growth? Don't believe that
rubbish.

I can't call on my institutional clients without hearing anguished questions
about the new normal. In case you have been fishing in the upper Amazon
basin, the new normal is Pimco's way of declaring that the decade ahead will
be lackluster. The slogan has taken on a life of its own and been widely
adopted. It's also utter nonsense--rubbish of the first caliber.

The basic notion is that all the new insurmountable problems we now face
(deficits, unemployment, exhausted consumers) will keep us in a dismal economy
and poor stock market for ten years. But to me it seems pretty clear that we
are now experiencing the same old normal we've always seen.

In my 37 years in the investment industry I've never, ever seen an early bull
market without some version of this theme that was widely embraced. Last time
around, in 2003-04, it was a new era of lower expectations. Then stocks rose
for four years.

As a rule, the bigger and scarier bear markets have been, the bigger the
floodgates have opened toward this sentiment--this view that the new problems
are just too big and bad to overcome. It all reminds me inherently and eerily
of Sir John Templeton's line that the four most dangerous words in the English
language are This time it's different. It's different in details, maybe, but
the fundamental principles of investing don't change.

Not to impugn Pimco's integrity (which I consider the highest), but this view
is convenient for that firm. Its business is mainly in fixed income. As the
economy strengthens--whether a little or a lot--it is likely that long-term
interest rates will rise. That will make Pimco's bond portfolios go down in
value. There's not much that bond managers can do in a long bear market for
bonds and still look smart. If they go to cash, even with excellent timing,
they get no big hero's reward of the sort equity managers can get.

Take note: Pimco, a division of Allianz, is getting into the equity business
right now. Watch what its managers do, not what they say.

While obviously far from March's lows, stocks (globally) are still very cheap
by historical standards. They are also cheap compared with bonds. Be bullish.
Skip the biggest U.S. banks. Focus instead on materials, industrials and
technology. More important, invest heavily overseas, where opportunities are
the best.

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/1214/investment-guide-10-brazil-stocks-pimco-portfolio-strategies.html?partner=ken_fisher_newsletter

[ob] Unemployment and Job Cuts in U.S. Riding Coattails of Recovery

2009-12-05 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Unemployment and Job Cuts in U.S. Riding Coattails of Recovery
By Timothy R. Homan

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Employers in the U.S. cut the fewest jobs in November 
since the recession began, and the unemployment rate fell, signaling that the 
recovery is lifting the labor market out of the worst slump in the post-World 
War II era.

Payrolls fell by 11,000, figures from the Labor Department showed yesterday in 
Washington, compared with the median forecast for a 125,000 decline in a 
Bloomberg News survey of 82 economists. The jobless rate declined to 10 percent.

The dollar strengthened and Treasuries slid as the report indicated companies 
may start hiring again after the job market shrank by 7.2 million since 
December 2007. Staffing at temporary employment agencies jumped the most in 
five years, and a gain in wages gave consumers more to spend for the holidays.

This confirms the idea that the recession is over and has been over for 
several months, said Neal Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse in New York. 
It doesn't tell you that we'll have a strong recovery, especially not a strong 
rebound in the labor market.

The Dollar Index, a gauge of the currency against six major trading partners, 
jumped as much as 1.8 percent yesterday. Yields on benchmark 10-year government 
notes climbed to 3.48 percent from 3.39 percent late yesterday. The Standard  
Poor's 500 Index was up 0.6 percent to 1,105.98 after earlier rising as much as 
1.8 percent.

Traders increased bets that the Federal Reserve would tighten monetary policy 
in the third quarter of next year. Yields on the September federal funds 
futures contract rose by 11 basis points. A basis point is 0.01 percentage 
point.

Record Low Rates

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has pledged to maintain record-low interest rates 
until joblessness subsides, even as a recovery takes hold.

Google Inc., owner of the world's most popular search engine, is hiring again 
after the company cut back during the recession, Chief Executive Officer Eric 
Schmidt said last month. The Mountain View, California-based company had about 
19,665 workers at the end of the third quarter, down from more than 20,000 last 
year.

We are absolutely planning to increase our headcount and we're aggressively 
trying to find the best talent as we did historically, Schmidt said in a Nov. 
11 interview.

Corporate profits climbed 11 percent in the third quarter, the biggest increase 
in five years, according to Commerce Department data. It was the third straight 
quarter of profit gains, the first such streak since 2006.

Revisions to Data

Revisions added 159,000 to payroll figures previously reported for October and 
September. The October reading was revised to show a 111,000 drop in jobs 
compared with an initially reported 190,000 decline.

The jobless rate was projected to hold at 10.2 percent, according to the 
Bloomberg survey of economists. Forecasts ranged from 9.9 percent to 10.4 
percent.

Christina Romer, President Barack Obama's chief economist, said that while the 
jobs report is good news, the nation still needs to be ready for bumps in 
the road.

We're on the right path, but I think we do need to be aware that these things 
do move around, Romer, head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, 
said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

The administration won't seek a second economic stimulus like the $787 billion 
package passed earlier this year, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said 
yesterday. Instead, the administration is considering using money from the $700 
billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, which was initially designed to shore up 
the financial system, to help the economy.

Budget Deficit

Obama said Dec. 3 at a White House forum on jobs that the budget deficit, which 
reached a record $1.4 trillion in fiscal 2009, would constrain the government 
from major initiatives to create jobs.

The number of temporary workers increased 52,000 in November, yesterday's 
report showed, the biggest jump since October 2004 and the fourth straight 
rise. Payrolls at temporary-help agencies often turn up before total employment 
because companies prefer to see a steady increase in demand before taking on 
permanent staff.

The average work week grew to 33.2 hours in November from 33 hours, the biggest 
advance since March 2003. Average weekly earnings rose to $622.17.

Improvements in the job market were broad-based.

Builders, Restaurants

Payrolls at builders declined 27,000 after falling 56,000 the month before. 
Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and 
retailers, added 58,000 workers after adding 2,000. Retail payrolls decreased 
by 14,500 after a 44,200 drop.

Factory payrolls fell 41,000 after decreasing 51,000 in the prior month. The 
median forecast by economists called for a drop of 45,000. The decline included 
a drop of 6,300 jobs in auto manufacturing and parts industries.

Financial firms reduced payrolls

[ob] Re: Minta advis buat elty dan ctra

2009-12-04 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

window dressing ada kemungkinan. tapi yg jelas 2010 tahunnya properti dan 
konstruksi. elty n ctra kayaknya top picks fm2 untuk property stocks.



--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, heruwibowo_jem...@... wrote:

 Para member ob yang baik, minta pendapatnya dong tentang kedua saham ini. Mau 
 ikutan windress apa nggak ya kira 2?
 Makasih atas infonya 
 Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerry®

[ob] Sasol Investasi di Bidang Pencairan Batubara US$ 2 Miliar

2009-12-01 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Rabu, 02/12/2009 12:29 WIB
Sasol Investasi di Bidang Pencairan Batubara US$ 2 Miliar
Suhendra - detikFinance

Jakarta - Perusahan asal Afrika Selatan bernama Sasol memastikan akan 
menanamkan investasinya di Indonesia dengan nilai investasi lebih dari US$ 2 
miliar. Hari ini Sasol menandatangani Memoramdum of Understanding (MoU) dengan 
Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal (BKPM).

Nama perusahaannya Sasol, penandatanganannya dengan BKPM dulu, kata Kepala 
BKPM Gita Wirjawan saat ditemui disela-sela acara MoA Krakatau Steel dengan 
Posco di Kantor Depperin, Jalan Gatot Subroto, Jakarta, Rabu (2/12/2009)

Dikatakannya, Sasol merupakan perusahaan asal Afrika Selatan yang akan 
mendirikan pabrik pencairan batubara menjadi bahan bakar minyak (BBM). Sasol 
merupakan salah satu perusahaan di dunia yang memiliki teknologi pencairan 
(likuifikasi) batubara.

Nilainya lagi difinalisasi, jumlah cukup besar, lebih besar dari US$ 2 
miliar, katanya.

Kabar Sasol akan masuk ke Indonesia tersebut sudah terdengar sejak lama. 
Kabarnya, Sasol berencana menggandeng perusahaan lokal untuk membangun pabrik 
berlokasi di Kalimantan. Dengan adanya MoU dengan BKPM hari ini, maka kepastian 
Sasol masuk ke Indonesia semakin besar.

Re: [ob] Sasol Investasi di Bidang Pencairan Batubara US$ 2 Miliar

2009-12-01 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

kalau gak salah dulu bumi pernah mau joint sama sasol.


--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Andre Andre andre...@... wrote:

 Wowsasol(SSL)itu market capnya gede bgt... 
 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=SSL
 
 
 
 
 
 From: victor_sperandeo victor_speran...@...
 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
 Sent: Wed, December 2, 2009 1:02:06 PM
 Subject: [ob] Sasol Investasi di Bidang Pencairan Batubara US$ 2 Miliar
 

 Rabu, 02/12/2009 12:29 WIB
 Sasol Investasi di Bidang Pencairan Batubara US$ 2 Miliar
 Suhendra - detikFinance
 
 Jakarta - Perusahan asal Afrika Selatan bernama Sasol memastikan akan 
 menanamkan investasinya di Indonesia dengan nilai investasi lebih dari US$ 2 
 miliar. Hari ini Sasol menandatangani Memoramdum of Understanding (MoU) 
 dengan Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal (BKPM).
 
 Nama perusahaannya Sasol, penandatanganannya dengan BKPM dulu, kata Kepala 
 BKPM Gita Wirjawan saat ditemui disela-sela acara MoA Krakatau Steel dengan 
 Posco di Kantor Depperin, Jalan Gatot Subroto, Jakarta, Rabu (2/12/2009)
 
 Dikatakannya, Sasol merupakan perusahaan asal Afrika Selatan yang akan 
 mendirikan pabrik pencairan batubara menjadi bahan bakar minyak (BBM). Sasol 
 merupakan salah satu perusahaan di dunia yang memiliki teknologi pencairan 
 (likuifikasi) batubara.
 
 Nilainya lagi difinalisasi, jumlah cukup besar, lebih besar dari US$ 2 
 miliar, katanya.
 
 Kabar Sasol akan masuk ke Indonesia tersebut sudah terdengar sejak lama. 
 Kabarnya, Sasol berencana menggandeng perusahaan lokal untuk membangun pabrik 
 berlokasi di Kalimantan. Dengan adanya MoU dengan BKPM hari ini, maka 
 kepastian Sasol masuk ke Indonesia semakin besar.

Re: [ob] Fw:BUMI,BTEL, ELTY

2009-11-30 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

padahal seminggu sebelumnya ditiup rumor:
- Investor Tiongkok Gandeng ELTY
- Incar Investor Hong Kong dan Singapura
dasar bd hehehe.

kebanyakan rumor, ca n teknikal, sampai fundamental kelewat (nav 640).



--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, zero25758 zero25...@... wrote:

 beritanya di etrading jam 7-8 pagi tadi... Mungkin ini sebabnya Elty dibantai 
 habis:(
 
 Kalo ndak salah di e-trading pagi ini jg ada berita BUMI yang lain :
 
 Title : BUMI: JP Morgan Upgrade TP 7% jadi 3.750
 JPMorgan Chase  Co. meng-upgrade target price atas BUMI sebanyak 7% jadi 
 Rp3.750/saham 
 dan tetap mempertahankan rekomendasi rating Overweight, seiring perseroan 
 membeli saham Newmont . (bloomberg/fz)
  
 nah bingung kan?? hehehe dasar BD!
 
 
 
 
 --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Andre Andre andref_r@ wrote:
 
  Beritanya keluar jam brapa emang?
  
  
  
  
  
  From: Suryanto S suharli@
  To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Mon, November 30, 2009 5:13:14 PM
  Subject: [ob] Fw:BUMI,BTEL, ELTY
  
 
  Besok naik apa turun ya
   
  BUMI: Jumlah Obligasi Konversi Melonjak
  http://www.etrading .co.id/etrading2 .0/news.php? pid=cli=bb81b0bfd9e1cb8b 
  5d9d6d9c145889d6 763e8a09a962d021 4c999d6beb986e12 012e076112962ff7 
  01a6115993c9a477 1569563e3ae99623 58e123ec457d82b0Total 
  utang dalam bentuk obligasi tukar BUMI melonjak jadi US$777,5 juta seiring 
  terjualnya obligasi konversi perseroan senilai US$300 juta. Perseroan 
  menyatakan 
  pekan lalu melalui anak usahanya telah menjual seluruh obligasi tukar 
  US$300 
  juta berjangka waktu 7 tahun dengan tingkat bunga 5%. Namun perseroan 
  enggan 
  memberitahukan harga konversinya, yang pasti harga konversi peremium 30% 
  dari 
  harga referensi sebelum 25 Des09. Sementara itu, perseroan menyatakan tidak 
  akan 
  merespons rumor dari sejumlah broker dan media terkait pemberitaan mengenai 
  obligasi tukar yang sebelumny aditerbitkan perseroan US$300 juta dan opsi 
  pencarian dana lainya US$300 juta. (bisnis/fz)
   
  http://www.etrading .co.id/etrading2 .0/news.php? pid=cli=bb81b0bfd9e1cb8b 
  5d9d6d9c145889d6 763e8a09a962d021 4c999d6beb986e12 012e076112962ff7 
  01a6115993c9a477 1569563e3ae99623 5919beb5d32bd1a5
  BTEL: Cetak Laba Rp 97,3 Miliar pada 9M09
   Pada 9M09, BTEL mencatatkan laba bersih senilai Rp 
  97,33 miliar, turun sekitar 19,7% dibandingkan periode yang sama di 2008 
  sebesar 
  Rp 121,25 miliar. Penurunan laba bersih dipicu oleh kenaikan beban keuangan 
  bersih dari Rp 94,25 miliar menjadi Rp 154,6 miliar. (vivanews/uth)
   
  http://www.etrading .co.id/etrading2 .0/news.php? pid=cli=bb81b0bfd9e1cb8b 
  5d9d6d9c145889d6 763e8a09a962d021 4c999d6beb986e12 012e076112962ff7 
  01a6115993c9a477 1569563e3ae99623 b60189be4188ccf2
  ELTY: Jajaki Rights Issue di 2010
   Selain emisi obligasi, ELTY juga menjajaki rights issue 
  guna mengantisipasi kemungkinan booming-nya industri properti di 2010. 
  Perseroan 
  membutuhkan dana Rp1-1,5 triliun untuk mengembangkan usaha properti dan 
  jalan 
  tol. (bisnis/fz)

[ob] Re: Latest breaking news: Indebted Dubai World rejected asset sale

2009-11-29 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

Dubai looks to oil-rich neighbor for possible aid
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jgIwsGJtixo-F6a2j5e8hebIbaEwD9C8SL780

U.A.E. central bank may guarantee Dubai World debt
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/uae-central-bank-may-guarantee-dubai-world-debt-2009-11-28

btw, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (UAE) adalah sovereign wealth fund paling 
besar dengan kelolaan $627 milyar.
http://www.swfinstitute.org/funds.php


so, it's business as usual. tapi buat bd, business as usual always means 
employing every sentiment into market volatility. jadi kalau mau nampung siapin 
ember, siapa tahu dapet.




--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, dunia ini indah pusatdu...@... wrote:

 
 
 Latest breaking news: Indebted Dubai World rejected asset sale
 
 
 Report: Dubai World official says indebted conglomerate rejected asset sale 
 at 'low prices'
 
 By Barbara Surk, Associated Press Writer 
 On 5:25 am EST, Sunday November 29, 2009 
 
 
 DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) -- A Dubai World official says the 
 conglomerate dismissed the possibility of selling some of its assets at a 
 discounted price to cover some of the $60 billion in debts coming due.
 
 Al-Itihad newspaper on Sunday quoted a company source as saying over past 
 months Dubai World rejected the idea of selling some of its good investment 
 and real estate assets.
 
 Dubai World's holdings range from ports to real estate. It said Wednesday it 
 was seeking a debt payment deferment of at least six months that would also 
 cover its real estate arm, Nakheel. That subsidiary has a $3.5 billion bond 
 due next month.
 
 The news roiled global markets and renewed fears that banks hammered by the 
 global recession would be forced to absorb new losses

[ob] Re: Latest breaking news: Indebted Dubai World rejected asset sale

2009-11-29 Terurut Topik victor_sperandeo

opsi penyelesaian hutang dubai world:

Dubai World mulls four options of debt repayment
by Sun Ruijun

ABU DHABI, Nov. 29 (Xinhua) -- Dubai World, one of Dubai's largest and most 
important conglomerates, is considering four options of repaying its total 
59-billion-U.S. dollars debts and liabilities.

Dubai World could still meet the Dec. 14 deadline on the 4 billion dollars 
payment of a sukuk, or Islamic bond, from its flagship real estate developer 
Nakheel under one option being considered by advisers to the conglomerate, 
according to a state-run newspaper The National.

Repayment on schedule is one of four alternatives being considered by Dubai 
World, which announced Wednesday it would seek a freeze on billions of dollars 
in debt repayments to bondholders and creditors.

Aidan Birkett of Deloitte, the new chief restructuring officer of Dubai World, 
is still pondering the options, the paper reported on Sunday.

Last week, Birkett was appointed to oversee Dubai World's reorganization, along 
with the investment bank Rothschild and the U.S. corporate specialists Alix 
Partners.

If Dubai World pays back the sukuk, it will solve a problem for the company and 
its bondholders, and leave open the option of rescheduling bank debt and other 
liabilities, including bills owed to international contractors, added the paper.

Other options being considered include a scheme to offer bondholders 80 percent 
redemption of the value of their holdings, with a similar offer made to 
bankers, the report continued.

Alternatively, Dubai World may move forward with the plan to seek a general 
debt holiday under the terms of last week's standstill proposal, by which 
payments would be frozen until May 30, 2010 with a view to negotiating a 
rescheduling of all its debts, it said.

The most drastic scenario for the debt-ridden conglomerate, the paper said, 
saying it might embark on a general liquidation of assets in response to legal 
action by creditors.

But this is thought to be a remote possibility, as it is likely to impair the 
value of Dubai World assets, leaving everyone worse off, noted the newspaper.

CENTRAL BANK CLOSELY WATCHING

Earlier, the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is closely 
watching events stemming from the Dubai debt crisis to ensure no harm results 
for the national economy.

Further news would be available until the Central Bank opens Monday, when stock 
markets in Dubai and Abu Dhabi also reopen following an extended break for Eid 
al-Adha, a religious holiday observed across the Gulf region.

UAE ministries, government agencies and state companies have been advised to 
remain on holiday until next Sunday to celebrate the National Day, which falls 
on Dec. 2.

The government of Dubai, a member of the oil-rich federation UAE, announced 
Wednesday that it would ask creditors of Dubai World to agree to a debt 
moratorium of at least six months as a first step towards restructuring.

The announcement, described by ratings agency Standard and Poor's as a default, 
provided the focus for world financial markets and media Thursday, hitting bank 
stocks and the price of oil, but lifting the dollar on a day when U.S. and most 
Gulf markets were closed.

The first move for Dubai World this week will be to formalize its request for a 
debt repayment standstill, said The National, which runs by the state-owned Abu 
Dhabi Media Company.



--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, victor_sperandeo 
victor_speran...@... wrote:

 Dubai looks to oil-rich neighbor for possible aid
 http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jgIwsGJtixo-F6a2j5e8hebIbaEwD9C8SL780
 
 U.A.E. central bank may guarantee Dubai World debt
 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/uae-central-bank-may-guarantee-dubai-world-debt-2009-11-28
 
 btw, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (UAE) adalah sovereign wealth fund paling 
 besar dengan kelolaan $627 milyar.
 http://www.swfinstitute.org/funds.php
 
 
 so, it's business as usual. tapi buat bd, business as usual always means 
 employing every sentiment into market volatility. jadi kalau mau nampung 
 siapin ember, siapa tahu dapet.
 
 
 
 
 --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, dunia ini indah pusatdunia@ wrote:
 
  
  
  Latest breaking news: Indebted Dubai World rejected asset sale
  
  
  Report: Dubai World official says indebted conglomerate rejected asset sale 
  at 'low prices'
  
  By Barbara Surk, Associated Press Writer 
  On 5:25 am EST, Sunday November 29, 2009 
  
  
  DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) -- A Dubai World official says the 
  conglomerate dismissed the possibility of selling some of its assets at a 
  discounted price to cover some of the $60 billion in debts coming due.
  
  Al-Itihad newspaper on Sunday quoted a company source as saying over past 
  months Dubai World rejected the idea of selling some of its good 
  investment and real estate assets.
  
  Dubai World's holdings range from ports to real estate. It said Wednesday 
  it was seeking

[ob] Daftar Short Selling di BEI per tanggal 2 November 2009

in case dibutuhkan hehehe.


   1. PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI).
   2. PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO).
   3. PT Astra International Tbk (ASII).
   4. PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA).
   5. PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI).
   6. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI).
   7. PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk (BDMN).
   8. PT Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR).
   9. PT Berlian Laju Tanker Tbk (BLTA).
  10. PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI).
  11. PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI).
  12. PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF).
  13. PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY).
  14. PT Barito Pacific Tbk (BRPT).
  15. PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk (INTP).
  16. PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG).
  17. PT Ciputra Property Tbk (CTRP).
  18. PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk (LPKR).
  19. PT PP London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk (LSIP).
  20. PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC).
  21. PT Bakrieland Development Tbk (ELTY).
  22. PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (PGAS).
  23. PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA).
  24. PT Semen Gresik Tbk (SMGR).
  25. PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM).
  26. PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR).
  27. PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSDE).
  28. PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM).
  29. PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk (UNSP).
  30. PT Central Proteinaprima Tbk (CPRO).
  31. PT Kawasan Industri Jababeka Tbk (KIJA).
  32. PT Holcim Indonesia Tbk (SMCB).
  33. PT Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering Tbk (TRUB).
  34. PT Bakrie Telecom Tbk (BTEL).
  35. PT Kalbe Farma Tbk (KLBF).

http://www.investorsaham.com/V2/index.php?option=com_contentview=articleid=719:daftar-margin-dan-short-selling-di-bei-pertanggal-2-november-2009catid=1:latestItemid=2

Re: [ob] Bakrieland Rampungkan 30% Proyek Dubai World

walau kemarin ada yg upgrade nav jadi 640, tapi kalau sentimen lagi negatif ya 
tetep aja turun.

ai juga ngarep loh hehe.


--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, gusmareno gusmar...@... wrote:

 
 Komporin terusss...!
 Ketahuan banget mau nampungin ELTY.
 
 
   - Original Message - 
   From: Cougar Boy 
   To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
   Sent: Saturday, November 28, 2009 1:37 PM
   Subject: Re: [ob] Bakrieland Rampungkan 30% Proyek Dubai World
 
 
 
   Kepala... pundak lutut kaki ?? :D
 
 
 
 
 
   kalau senin gak ijo sih game over..
 
 
   cuman apa mungkin senin ELTY ijo ??
 
   2009/11/28 aswinhendrato aswinhendr...@...
 
   
 
 Apakah efeknya ELTY dng adanya default Dubai World?
 Any comments ?
 
 
 http://economy.okezone.com/index.php/ReadStory/2008/10/13/21/153533/bakrieland-rampungkan-30-proyek-dubai-world
 
 Bakrieland Rampungkan 30% Proyek Dubai World
 Senin, 13 Oktober 2008 - 16:24 wib TEXT SIZE : Candra Setya Santoso - 
 Okezone 
 foto: ist JAKARTA - Di tengah krisis keuangan global, perusahaan properti 
 PT Bakrieland Development Tbk (ELTY) telah menyelesaikan kepemilikan bisnis 
 investasinya sebesar 30 persen di proyek properti yang dimiliki Limit Plus, 
 anak perusahaan Dubai World.
 
 Kerja sama dengan Dubai World ini akan sangat menguntungkan pihak 
 Bakrie, karena Dubai World yang bergerak pada sektor properti sudah memiliki 
 20 persen tower yang ada di dunia, kata Dirut ELTY Hiramsyah S Thaib, usai 
 jumpa pers, di Wisma Bakrie 2, Jalan Rasuna Said, Kuningan, Jakarta, Senin 
 (13/10/2008).
 
 Dia mengatakan, kerja sama ini didasarkan keuntungan yang akan di dapat, 
 di mana perseroan akan mendapatkan uang segar (fresh money) yang saat ini 
 dibutuhkan.
 
 Sebagai informasi, dari kepemilikan saham anak perusahaan Dubai World, 
 Bakrieland akan mendapatkan dana sebesar USD 110 juta. Dana tersebut 
 rencananya akan digunakan untuk memperkuat struktur keuangan. (abn)(ade)

Re: Bls: [ob] IHSG: An Elliott Wave analysis + analisa Bandarmologi

structural damage? dulu saya juga pikir begitu. tapi nyatanya ritel itu kayak 
kecambah, walau umurnya pendek tapi tetep banyak yg tumbuh. kita berada di 
kondisi pasar finansial yg ekstrim likuid. yg namanya duit itu will not sit 
idle dan yg namanya manusia kagak pernah kapok.




--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, KM keno...@... wrote:

 Apakah BD dengan membantai retailer udah bisa cover short kerugian mereka
 tahun lalu? Kalau B7 mainnya kaya gini, udah ga akan menarik lagi  makin
 banyak retail kelas kakap yang pergi. Gimana om AB mau untung nantinya kalau
 tidak dibuat menarik?
 
 Ane inget tahun lalu, ngomong sama anaknya AB bulan dec, sial perusahaan gw
 tinggal jadi kertas mau kerjadian yang sama terulang lagi? Susah
 lho balikin public trust...
 
 
 2009/11/28 Jacob oenja...@...
 
 
 
  BD mana pernah kasian ama Retail, kalo bisa diabisin akan dihabisin...
  (Jsx-consultant wrote)
 
  Hmmm, kayak cerita film Ninja Assassin saja, begitu sadis, begitu
  kejamnya ketua clan OZUNU...
 
  Kalau BD kejam dan brutal bukankah akan juga membahayakan dirinya sendiri?
 
  Perilaku dari para pelaku besar pasar modal mencerminkan betapa
  rentan-nya hidup. Mempertahankan kedigdayaan mereka seolah-olah merupakan
  satu-satunya tujuan dengan cara menciptakan kepanikan, menghancurkan pasar
  dan selanjutnya memanipulasi peluang.
 
  Perilaku ini sudah menyimpang dari esensi utama tujuan pasar modal
  dibentuk.
 
  Semoga mereka mau belajar dari kekeliruan masa lalu tetapi bukan dengan
  mengulangi kesalahan itu dengan tujuan mencari keuntungan dengan cara
  hostile.
 
  Hehe...
 
  Sent from my XL BlackBerry®
 
  Compassion is the best defence against hate.
  Wisdom is the best defence against delusion.
  --
  *From: * jsx_consultant jsx-consult...@...
  *Date: *Sat, 28 Nov 2009 05:53:28 -
  *To: *obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
  *Subject: *Re: Bls: [ob] IHSG: An Elliott Wave analysis + analisa
  Bandarmologi
 
 
 
  --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com,
  kobayashi mitsukuni ueno_kobayashi@ wrote:
  
   mudah2an ga tembus digaris yg ke dua..dikisaran sebelum 2350..
   jadi support di 2372.04 orÂ  2367,62mental dari sana aja lah..
   Mbahkasihan Retail...
 
  BD mana pernah kasian ama Retail, kalo bisa diabisin akan
  dihabisin
 
  Analisa Elliott Wave kan berdasarkan gambar nyata dan
  bukan berdasar PERASAAN atau kepentingan PRIBADI...
 
  Nah sekarang embah tambahin analisa Bandarmologi:
  - Pada tgl 11/11 yaitu garis HITAM vertical pada gambar
  http://www.obrolanbandar.com/pwlihsgew.png
  BD melakukan manuver AKUMULASI pada saham Bakrie group
  selama 8 hari.
  - BD melakukan ini untuk mematahkan koreksi A-B-C IHSG dengan
  cara melakukan akumulasi saham Bakrie dan mengangkat
  IHSG sampe 2494 (pada SAFE HAVEN SCENARIO)
  - Pada hari ke 9 dan 10, ada koreksi normal karena sudah digeber
  selama 8 hari berturut turut.
  - Pada hari ke 11 (tgl 25) mungkin isue Dubai mau diledakan
  sudah merebak, BD Bakrie mulai balik badan dan tgl 26,
  isue Dubai di BLOW OUT dan market Crash
  - Dan Saat ini akumulasi BD dari tgl 11/11 di BUMI tinggal 40%...
 
  Jadi market itu SANGAT DINAMIS, Tool yg terbaikpun tidak akan
  bisa menghasilkan hasil yg perfect, semua pasti ada kegagalannya.
 
  Minggu depan, mungkin IMPACT DUBAI mungkin sudah didiscount
  oleh pasar asal tidak muncul SIDE EFFECT DUBAI yg baru.
 
  Nah pertanyaannya:
  - Apakah BD Bakrie akan melajutkan AKUMULASI jika IMPACT
  DUBAI bisa diminimalisir ?
  - Atau malah BD bakrie akan membuang sisa 40% yg masih ada ?.
 
  Pertanyaan ini tentu sangat susah dijawab, LALU GIMANA ?
 
  Embah kasil SOLUSI PRAKTIS saja:
  - Jika penggaris ajaib embah yaitu penggaris goceng merah
  pada gambar JEBOL maka Correction Wave A-B-C akan melanjutkan
  perjalanannya sesuai gambar.
  - Jika IHSG bisa bertahan diatas penggaris goceng berarti BD
  tidak mau scenario Crash terjadi dan kita memasuki UPTREND
  Wave 5.
 
   sebagaimana contoh2 sebelumnya yg ada di level bawahnya..
   hahahahahaa...
   Trims MBah..
   salam Hormat
   kobayashi.
  
  
  
  
  
   Dari: jsx_consultant jsx-consultant@
   Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.comobrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com
   Terkirim: Sab, 28 November, 2009 09:10:44
   Judul: [ob] IHSG: An Elliott Wave analysis
  
   Â
   IHSG: An Elliott Wave analysis
  
   http://www.obrolanb andar.com/ pwlihsgew. png
  
   - IHSG is in Correction Wave 4 phase
   - Possile Elliott Wave pattern: A-B-C wave
   - Wave 4 target: Fibo 38%-50%
   Probability 60%
   - Terminal of Wave 4 will be A if B can move up higher than 3
   - More Confirmation will be given when IHSG move below LOWER
   channel line 2
  
   Note:
   - Jadi ada kemungkinan Wave 4 sebenarnya sudah selesai dan
   sekarang ada di wave 5 jika IHSG bisa naik diatas puncak
   wave 3.
   - Tapi jika IHSG turun dibawah PENGGARIS GOCENG 2 maka
   Correction WAVE

[ob] RBS Led Dubai World Lenders; HSBC Most at Risk in UAE

By Vivian Salama and Gavin Finch

Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc was the biggest 
underwriter of loans to Dubai World, the state company seeking to reschedule 
debt, while HSBC Holdings Plc has the most at risk in the United Arab Emirates, 
according to JPMorgan Chase  Co.

RBS, the largest U.K. government-controlled bank, arranged $2.3 billion, or 17 
percent, of Dubai World loans since January 2007, JPMorgan said in a report 
today, citing Dealogic data. HSBC, Europe's biggest bank, has the largest 
absolute exposure in the U.A.E. with $17 billion of loans in 2008, JPMorgan 
said, citing the Emirates Banks Association. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC may 
be owed $1.9 billion by Dubai World, making it the largest creditor outside the 
emirate, said two people familiar with the companies.

The market is very nervous about exposure to Dubai and RBS's name has been 
associated with it as both a lender and a book runner, said David Williams, a 
banks analyst at Fox-Pitt Kelton Ltd. in London. People are concerned it's 
going to produce a new wave of losses. Dubai is driving everything in the 
market at the moment.

Stocks around the world have slumped for two days on concern a debt 
restructuring by Dubai World, with $59 billion of liabilities, will add to the 
$1.72 trillion of losses and writedowns from the global credit freeze. British 
banks have the most to lose among international lenders from a crisis in the 
United Arab Emirates, with a combined $49.5 billion of loans outstanding, 
according to a report from RBS that cites Bank for International Settlements 
data published in June.

`Disruption and Uncertainty'

U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown's government is monitoring the situation in 
Dubai, his spokeswoman said today.

Clearly the restructuring announcement has caused disruption and uncertainty 
in world markets, Brown's spokeswoman Vickie Sheriff told reporters in London. 
Brown's view is that U.K. banks are well capitalized having undergone rigorous 
stress testing, she said.

Dubai World, controlled by the emirate's ruler, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid 
Al-Maktoum, borrowed from more than 70 lenders to buy assets ranging from 
stakes in Las Vegas casino company MGM Mirage to London-based Standard 
Chartered Plc through Istithmar PJSC. The government said this week it will 
seek a standstill agreement to delay repayment of its debt, including $3.52 
billion of bonds due Dec. 14 from property unit Nakheel PJSC.

In Contact

We are in touch with Dubai World, and we have been in discussions more than 
once today and yesterday, Ala'a Eraiqat, the chief executive officer of Abu 
Dhabi Commercial, the third- largest lender in the United Arab Emirates, said 
in a telephone interview yesterday. He declined to comment on specifics. We 
have a lot of assurances which is a good thing.

RBS spokesman Piers Townsend in London declined to comment. The bank had 4.98 
billion pounds ($8.15 billion) of loans and advances outstanding to the UAE at 
the end of the first half, according to company filings. That included 2.7 
billion pounds of corporate loans, 1.65 billion pounds to banks and financial 
institutions and 596 million pounds to consumers.

HSBC's loans and advances to customers in the U.A.E. totaled $15.9 billion at 
the end of the first half of 2009, while deposits stood at $19.3 billion, 
according to the U.K.- based bank's 2009 interim results. Jezz Farr, a 
London-based spokesman, declined to comment on Dubai.

Syndicated Loans

Dubai World borrowed $13.5 billion in syndicated loans in 2007, according to 
JPMorgan's report. Banks typically retain 10 percent to 20 percent of the 
originated loans and use collateral or hedges, JPMorgan wrote.

RBS shares rose, reversing losses of as much as 10.2 percent to gain 5.8 
percent as of 2:35 p.m. in London. The shares fell 7.8 percent yesterday.

HSBC dropped 7.6 percent in Hong Kong, the most since March 9, and was up less 
than 0.1 percent in London. It slipped 4.8 percent yesterday. Standard 
Chartered slid 8.6 percent in Hong Kong, and 1.8 percent in London, extending 
yesterday's 5.8 percent decline.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts led by Roy Ramos estimated potential credit 
losses at HSBC related to Dubai World may be $611 million, and $177 million for 
Standard Chartered, according to a research report released today. The impact 
on both banks will be manageable, the analysts wrote.

Standard Chartered spokesman Jon Tracey said the bank was fully aware of 
disclosure obligations and would make a statement in the event that it had 
anything material to disclose.

`Immaterial Exposure'

Credit Suisse Group AG's exposure is immaterial, said Zurich-based spokesman 
Marc Dosch. Calyon, the investment banking unit of Credit Agricole SA, has less 
than 300 million euros ($447 million) of exposure to Dubai's debt, 
spokeswoman Anne Robert in Paris said. Natixis SA has $50 million of exposure 
to Dubai World and no significant

Re: Bls: [ob] IHSG: An Elliott Wave analysis + analisa Bandarmologi