[ob] ASII 20.500, UNTR berapa?
Jawabannya:Nunggu giliran ya...--- Pada Jum, 8/5/09, Yudizz yudiz...@gmail.com> menulis:Dari: Yudizz yudiz...@gmail.com>Topik: RE: [ob] Fw: CS Indo: Upgrade Indonesia Overweight (Top Picks ASII, BUMI, UNTR), Upgrade ASII (21,200) UNTRKepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.comTanggal: Jumat, 8 Mei, 2009, 12:57 AM Hihihi, baru nyadar tuh si CS. Ketinggalan kereta bro, sekarang mah waktunya jualan. Masa kalah sama trader kampoeng, gue sih udah ngajak sejak Februari, kekekek… http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/message/136609 http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/message/137645 http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/message/138672 Regards, Yudizz From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com ] On Behalf Of Herman Sent: Friday, May 08, 2009 11:41 AM To: obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups. Com Subject: [ob] Fw: CS Indo: Upgrade Indonesia Overweight (Top Picks ASII, BUMI, UNTR), Upgrade ASII (21,200) UNTR Indonesia Equity Sales CS Indo: Upgrade Indonesia Overweight (Top Picks ASII, BUMI, UNTR), Upgrade ASII (21,200) UNTR (11,400)! ASIAN EQ STRATEGY: Upgrade Indonesia Overweight- Top Picks ASII, BUMI, UNTR iSay: Asian Strategist Sakthi Siva is now Overweight Indonesia with Top-3 Picks in her model portfolio- ASII, BUMI UNTR. Indonesian Strategist Arief Wana has his Top-5 Picks in Indonesia ASII, PGAS, UNTR, BBRI TLKM. At JCI 1,798pts, CS Indonesia Universe is currently tr adi ng on 13.0x-10.4x 2009F-2010F respectively (after recent upgrades in Astra, Banks, and United Tractors), and assuming valuation of 12x 2010F PER (historical average circa 13x rolling forward PER), JCI could hit 2,100pt at year end. · Sakthi Siva (Flash Report): We are upgr adi ng Indonesia to OVERWEIGHT from Neutral – cheap Cyclicals, and Singapore to OVERWEIGHT from Underweight. In our reports on 23 April and 4 May, Any Cheap Cyclicals Left?, we suggested that Indonesian coal was tr adi ng at a 176% discount to the region. We are funding these upgrades by trimming our Overweight calls on China (up 96% from the October lows, the best performer) and Korea . Top picks in Indonesia- we are keeping Astra International but adding Bumi Resources and United Tractors. ASTRA INT’L (ASII): Upgrades on better loans loss UNTR upgrade- reit Core Buy! iSay: At Rp18,950/share, ASII is tr adi ng on Undemanding 10.3x-9.1x 2009F-2010F PER, and 11% Discount to SOTP Rp21,200/share. I agree with Arief Wana that ASII is a Core Holding in Indonesia , due to quality management, diversified earnings from both Resources and Domestic Consumers-related sectors, and solid balance sheet! · Arief Wana (Daily): Astra’s 1Q09 results showed positive developments on two key fronts, namely 1) loss on repossessed assets and 2) strong United Tractors’ performance. Coupled with a lower tax rate, we are upgr adi ng our forecasts by 12-17% for FY09E-10E and TP to Rp21,200 (from Rp14,500 previously). · Loss on reposessed assets, which was the major dragging factor in the 2006 crisis, was not a factor so far. In our view, this could suggest 1) better, resilient purchasing power in general and 2) better control over financing activities. We halve our loss estimates to Rp500bn (vs. 1Q09 of only Rp67bn and 2006 of Rp949bn). · In addition, we have upgraded United Tractors by 17-42% on the back of higher ASPs, weaker rupiah, and therefore margins (please see note/Daily below). · Although we expect auto volume to remain soft this year (and bottoming in 2Q09), we continue to like Astra International as a core holding for the Indonesian market given its strong market positioning, conservative management and strong balance sheet. Our new TP of Rp21,200 implies a 10.2-11.5x FY09E-10E PER (which is relatively in line with the market for FY10E) and 5.3-5.7x FY09E-10E EV/EBITDA multiples. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on the stock. UNITED TRACTORS (UNTR): Still Positive, Upgrade EPS TP (Rp11,400)- reit Buy iSay: At Rp9,000/share, UNTR is tr adi ng on Undemanding 9.8x-9.1x 2009F-2010F PER, and 21% Discount to SOTP Rp11,400/share. I agree with Arief Wana that UNTR deserves a premium to coal sector and market due to quality management and solid balance sheet, while offering a unique leverage play on Indonesian coal production growth with Upside from Coal mines acquisitions! · Arief Wana (Daily, Report emailed yesterday): We have just published a report on United Tractors (UT). UT’s robust 1Q09 results, stemming from higher ASPs, a weaker IDR and therefore margins – due to inventory gains and a bigger proportion of higher margins in the parts and services division – have beaten our as well as the street’s expectations. · The strong results reaffirm our view that UT’s business is not
RE: [ob] ASII 20.500, UNTR berapa?
UNTR = 50% aja dari ASII = anggap aja minimal Rp. 10.250 …hehehe From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Joe Grunk Sent: Fri, 08 May 2009 15:13 PM To: sa...@yahoogroups.com; obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [ob] ASII 20.500, UNTR berapa? Jawabannya: Nunggu giliran ya... --- Pada Jum, 8/5/09, Yudizz yudiz...@gmail.com menulis: Dari: Yudizz yudiz...@gmail.com Topik: RE: [ob] Fw: CS Indo: Upgrade Indonesia Overweight (Top Picks ASII, BUMI, UNTR), Upgrade ASII (21,200) UNTR Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Tanggal: Jumat, 8 Mei, 2009, 12:57 AM Hihihi, baru nyadar tuh si CS. Ketinggalan kereta bro, sekarang mah waktunya jualan. Masa kalah sama trader kampoeng, gue sih udah ngajak sejak Februari, kekekek… http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/message/136609 http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/message/137645 http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/message/138672 Regards, Yudizz _ From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com ] On Behalf Of Herman Sent: Friday, May 08, 2009 11:41 AM To: obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups. Com Subject: [ob] Fw: CS Indo: Upgrade Indonesia Overweight (Top Picks ASII, BUMI, UNTR), Upgrade ASII (21,200) UNTR Indonesia Equity Sales CS Indo: Upgrade Indonesia Overweight (Top Picks ASII, BUMI, UNTR), Upgrade ASII (21,200) UNTR (11,400)! ASIAN EQ STRATEGY: Upgrade Indonesia Overweight- Top Picks ASII, BUMI, UNTR iSay: Asian Strategist Sakthi Siva is now Overweight Indonesia with Top-3 Picks in her model portfolio- ASII, BUMI UNTR. Indonesian Strategist Arief Wana has his Top-5 Picks in Indonesia ASII, PGAS, UNTR, BBRI TLKM. At JCI 1,798pts, CS Indonesia Universe is currently tr adi ng on 13.0x-10.4x 2009F-2010F respectively (after recent upgrades in Astra, Banks, and United Tractors), and assuming valuation of 12x 2010F PER (historical average circa 13x rolling forward PER), JCI could hit 2,100pt at year end. · Sakthi Siva (Flash Report): We are upgr adi ng Indonesia to OVERWEIGHT from Neutral – cheap Cyclicals, and Singapore to OVERWEIGHT from Underweight. In our reports on 23 April and 4 May, Any Cheap Cyclicals Left?, we suggested that Indonesian coal was tr adi ng at a 176% discount to the region. We are funding these upgrades by trimming our Overweight calls on China (up 96% from the October lows, the best performer) and Korea . Top picks in Indonesia- we are keeping Astra International but adding Bumi Resources and United Tractors. ASTRA INT’L (ASII): Upgrades on better loans loss UNTR upgrade- reit Core Buy! iSay: At Rp18,950/share, ASII is tr adi ng on Undemanding 10.3x-9.1x 2009F-2010F PER, and 11% Discount to SOTP Rp21,200/share. I agree with Arief Wana that ASII is a Core Holding in Indonesia , due to quality management, diversified earnings from both Resources and Domestic Consumers-related sectors, and solid balance sheet! · Arief Wana (Daily): Astra’s 1Q09 results showed positive developments on two key fronts, namely 1) loss on repossessed assets and 2) strong United Tractors’ performance. Coupled with a lower tax rate, we are upgr adi ng our forecasts by 12-17% for FY09E-10E and TP to Rp21,200 (from Rp14,500 previously). · Loss on reposessed assets, which was the major dragging factor in the 2006 crisis, was not a factor so far. In our view, this could suggest 1) better, resilient purchasing power in general and 2) better control over financing activities. We halve our loss estimates to Rp500bn (vs. 1Q09 of only Rp67bn and 2006 of Rp949bn). · In addition, we have upgraded United Tractors by 17-42% on the back of higher ASPs, weaker rupiah, and therefore margins (please see note/Daily below). · Although we expect auto volume to remain soft this year (and bottoming in 2Q09), we continue to like Astra International as a core holding for the Indonesian market given its strong market positioning, conservative management and strong balance sheet. Our new TP of Rp21,200 implies a 10.2-11.5x FY09E-10E PER (which is relatively in line with the market for FY10E) and 5.3-5.7x FY09E-10E EV/EBITDA multiples. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on the stock. UNITED TRACTORS (UNTR): Still Positive, Upgrade EPS TP (Rp11,400)- reit Buy iSay: At Rp9,000/share, UNTR is tr adi ng on Undemanding 9.8x-9.1x 2009F-2010F PER, and 21% Discount to SOTP Rp11,400/share. I agree with Arief Wana that UNTR deserves a premium to coal sector and market due to quality management and solid balance sheet, while offering a unique leverage play on Indonesian coal production growth with Upside from Coal mines acquisitions! · Arief Wana (Daily, Report emailed yesterday): We have just published a report on United Tractors (UT). UT’s robust 1Q09 results, stemming from higher ASPs
RE: [ob] ASII 20.500, UNTR berapa?
Harusnya lebih mas. Jauh banget. --- Pada Jum, 8/5/09, Sanjaya mysanjaya...@gmail.com menulis: Dari: Sanjaya mysanjaya...@gmail.com Topik: RE: [ob] ASII 20.500, UNTR berapa? Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Tanggal: Jumat, 8 Mei, 2009, 1:24 AM UNTR = 50% aja dari ASII = anggap aja minimal Rp. 10.250 …hehehe From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Joe Grunk Sent: Fri, 08 May 2009 15:13 PM To: sa...@yahoogroups.com; obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [ob] ASII 20.500, UNTR berapa? Jawabannya: Nunggu giliran ya... Yahoo! Mail Sekarang Lebih Cepat dan Lebih Bersih. Rasakan bedanya! http://id.mail.yahoo.com
