Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend)
Oh nggak saya perhatikan. Hatur nuhun Kang. Wah saya harus update semua nih. Hatur nuhun pisan Kang From: Bagus Putra Perdana To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Thu, March 4, 2010 6:49:11 PM Subject: Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend) ow, data di link yg bapak kasih 9 bulan pak. 9 bulan 2009. belon diinput kayanya data full yearnya. diupdate aja sama data yg sudah dipasang di web idx. On 04/03/2010, TimurLangit wrote: >Terimakasih Kang Bagus. > >Ndak apa2 Kang, yg penting ada gambaranlah valuasi B7 dari sisi pandang Akang. > >Anyway Kang, di sheet Akang, kok thn 2010-F, CF from operating activity nya >tinggi sekali ya? sampai 7T gitu. Padahal di thn 2009 cuma 3T (data dari >http://idsaham. com/laporan- keuangan- saham-UNTR- financial_ statement- >imq-fundamental. html) > >Apakah data 2009 yg salah, atau ada asumsi yg membuat 2010-F bisa melonjak >sampai dua kali seperti itu. > >Thank you Kang. > >Timur > > > > From: Bagus Putra Perdana >To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com >Sent: Thu, March 4, 2010 5:24:11 PM > >Subject: Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend) > > >bisa dicoba sih pak tp tools forward based valuation utk b7 saya >sendiri gak bisa berpegang pada hasilnya, sulit untuk bisa tarik ke >depan untuk saham2 bakrie krn pemegang saham publik sulit untuk >menebak langkah2 dan kebijakan keuangan manajemen grup bakrie dan >mengasumsikan hitungan finansial itu reliable. > >On 04/03/2010, TimurLangit wrote: >> Kang Bagus yang baik. >> Sungguh mulia hati akang kalau Akang bersedia bikinkan juga untuk B7. >> >> Apakah teman2 sependapat dengan saya? >> >> Timur >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> ____ _ _ __ >> From: Bagus Putra Perdana >> To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com >> Sent: Thu, March 4, 2010 3:58:56 PM >> Subject: Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend) >> >> >> Gak Bisa Bantu Post Chart dan candle karena bukan teknikalis, jadi bantu >> embah model pro-forma dan valuasi aja buat melengkapi supply >> attachment investdat anya >> >> >> UNTR profit and loss (IDR million) >> Year 2008 2009 2010-F 2011-F 2012-F 2013-F 2014-F >> >> Net sales 27,903,196 29,241,883 35,162,795 41,315,501 47,617,005 53,988,202 >> 60,128,775 >> Cost of sales (22,403,902) (22,570,824) (26,797,929) (31,937,249) >> (37,223,229) (42,583,449) (47,758,462) >> Gross profit 5,499,294 6,671,059 8,364,866 9,378,252 10,393,777 11,404,753 >> 12,370,314 >> Other operating income 5,542 9,104 9,559 10,037 10,539 11,066 11,619 >> Selling expenses (279,941) (272,315) (264,897) (257,681) (250,661) (243,833) >> (237,190) >> General administration expenses (1,060,600) (1,230,000) (1,426,457) >> (1,654,292) (1,918,517) (2,224,944) (2,580,314) >> EBITA 4,164,295 5,177,848 6,683,072 7,476,316 8,235,138 8,947,042 9,564,429 >> Amortisation of goodwill 0 0 50 50 50 50 50 >> EBIT 4,164,295 5,177,848 6,683,122 7,476,366 8,235,188 8,947,092 9,564,479 >> Investment income 68,064 48,996 58,530 58,530 58,530 58,530 58,530 >> Net interest (189,737) (88,768) (27,533) 214,137 571,699 1,095,014 1,728,136 >> Other financial items (190,585) 306,162 57,789 57,789 57,789 57,789 57,789 >> Net financial items (312,258) 266,390 88,785 330,456 688,017 1,211,332 >> 1,844,454 >> Earnings before tax 3,852,037 5,444,238 6,771,907 7,806,822 8,923,205 >> 10,158,425 11,408,933 >> Income tax (1,166,512) (1,594,543) (1,896,120) (2,185,896) (2,498,483) >> (2,844,345) (3,194,487) >> Tax/Profit 30.3% 29.3% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% >> Group net income 2,685,525 3,849,695 4,875,787 5,620,926 6,424,722 7,314,080 >> 8,214,446 >> Minority interest (24,693) (32,154) (40,724) (46,948) (53,662) (61,090) >> (68,610) >> Attributable net income 2,660,832 3,817,541 4,835,063 5,573,978 6,371,060 >> 7,252,990 8,145,836 >> Dividend paid (760,429) (1,164,410) (1,450,519) (1,672,193) (1,911,318) >> (2,175,897) (2,443,751) >> Retained earnings 1,900,403 2,653,131 3,384,544 3,901,785 4,459,742 >> 5,077,093 5,702,085 >> >> Common stock >> Weighted average shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 >> 3,326.9 >> Year end shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 >> Shares outstanding >> Weighted average shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 >> 3,326.9 >> Year end shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 >> Earnings per share (IDR) 800 1,1
Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend)
Hatur nuhun Kang. Punten Kang, lonjakan arus kas itu diprediksi terjadi di Q1 2010 dong Kang? Timur From: Bagus Putra Perdana To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Thu, March 4, 2010 6:46:36 PM Subject: Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend) Data CF Operasi dari laporan keuangan resmi 2009 5,1 T ah dan ini pun sebenernya ada "drawback" dari real capacitynya. normalized 2009 OCF seharusnya kisaran 5.5-5.7 T karena Penjualan alat berat Komatsu baru "pick-up" secara cepat di Q4. sehingga banyak pesanan masuk yang kolektibilitas kasnya pindah ke 2010 awal. piutang usaha UT naik lumayan signifikan sehingga sekilas terlihat dia melonggarkan kebijakan penjualannya supaya ada kemudahan bagi pelanggan. tapi overall kolektib ilitas tetep baik sih ini lebih ke emang drastisnya penjualan banyak di Q4 aja. lalu khusus 2010, ada kenaikan pengeluaran non kas karena 2009 UT spend 4.5 T untuk Capex dan penambahan Tangible asset. depresiasinya melonjak lumayan di 2010 tp itu kan non cash item sehingga arus kas 2010 akan lumayan melonjak dibanding 2009 On 04/03/2010, TimurLangit wrote: >Terimakasih Kang Bagus. > >Ndak apa2 Kang, yg penting ada gambaranlah valuasi B7 dari sisi pandang Akang. > >Anyway Kang, di sheet Akang, kok thn 2010-F, CF from operating activity nya >tinggi sekali ya? sampai 7T gitu. Padahal di thn 2009 cuma 3T (data dari >http://idsaham. com/laporan- keuangan- saham-UNTR- financial_ statement- >imq-fundamental. html) > >Apakah data 2009 yg salah, atau ada asumsi yg membuat 2010-F bisa melonjak >sampai dua kali seperti itu. > >Thank you Kang. > >Timur > > > > From: Bagus Putra Perdana >To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com >Sent: Thu, March 4, 2010 5:24:11 PM > >Subject: Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend) > > >bisa dicoba sih pak tp tools forward based valuation utk b7 saya >sendiri gak bisa berpegang pada hasilnya, sulit untuk bisa tarik ke >depan untuk saham2 bakrie krn pemegang saham publik sulit untuk >menebak langkah2 dan kebijakan keuangan manajemen grup bakrie dan >mengasumsikan hitungan finansial itu reliable. > >On 04/03/2010, TimurLangit wrote: >> Kang Bagus yang baik. >> Sungguh mulia hati akang kalau Akang bersedia bikinkan juga untuk B7. >> >> Apakah teman2 sependapat dengan saya? >> >> Timur >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> _ _ __ >> From: Bagus Putra Perdana >> To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com >> Sent: Thu, March 4, 2010 3:58:56 PM >> Subject: Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend) >> >> >> Gak Bisa Bantu Post Chart dan candle karena bukan teknikalis, jadi bantu >> embah model pro-forma dan valuasi aja buat melengkapi supply >> attachment investdat anya >> >> >> UNTR profit and loss (IDR million) >> Year 2008 2009 2010-F 2011-F 2012-F 2013-F 2014-F >> >> Net sales 27,903,196 29,241,883 35,162,795 41,315,501 47,617,005 53,988,202 >> 60,128,775 >> Cost of sales (22,403,902) (22,570,824) (26,797,929) (31,937,249) >> (37,223,229) (42,583,449) (47,758,462) >> Gross profit 5,499,294 6,671,059 8,364,866 9,378,252 10,393,777 11,404,753 >> 12,370,314 >> Other operating income 5,542 9,104 9,559 10,037 10,539 11,066 11,619 >> Selling expenses (279,941) (272,315) (264,897) (257,681) (250,661) (243,833) >> (237,190) >> General administration expenses (1,060,600) (1,230,000) (1,426,457) >> (1,654,292) (1,918,517) (2,224,944) (2,580,314) >> EBITA 4,164,295 5,177,848 6,683,072 7,476,316 8,235,138 8,947,042 9,564,429 >> Amortisation of goodwill 0 0 50 50 50 50 50 >> EBIT 4,164,295 5,177,848 6,683,122 7,476,366 8,235,188 8,947,092 9,564,479 >> Investment income 68,064 48,996 58,530 58,530 58,530 58,530 58,530 >> Net interest (189,737) (88,768) (27,533) 214,137 571,699 1,095,014 1,728,136 >> Other financial items (190,585) 306,162 57,789 57,789 57,789 57,789 57,789 >> Net financial items (312,258) 266,390 88,785 330,456 688,017 1,211,332 >> 1,844,454 >> Earnings before tax 3,852,037 5,444,238 6,771,907 7,806,822 8,923,205 >> 10,158,425 11,408,933 >> Income tax (1,166,512) (1,594,543) (1,896,120) (2,185,896) (2,498,483) >> (2,844,345) (3,194,487) >> Tax/Profit 30.3% 29.3% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% >> Group net income 2,685,525 3,849,695 4,875,787 5,620,926 6,424,722 7,314,080 >> 8,214,446 >> Minority interest (24,693) (32,154) (40,724) (46,948) (53,662) (61,090) >> (68,610) >> Attributable net income 2,660,832 3,817,541 4,835,063 5,573,978 6,371,060 >> 7,252,990 8,145,836 >> Dividend paid (760,429
Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend)
ow, data di link yg bapak kasih 9 bulan pak. 9 bulan 2009. belon diinput kayanya data full yearnya. diupdate aja sama data yg sudah dipasang di web idx. On 04/03/2010, TimurLangit wrote: > > > > Terimakasih Kang Bagus. > > Ndak apa2 Kang, yg penting ada gambaranlah valuasi B7 dari sisi pandang > Akang. > > Anyway Kang, di sheet Akang, kok thn 2010-F, CF from operating activity > nya tinggi sekali ya? sampai 7T gitu. Padahal di thn 2009 cuma 3T (data dari > > http://idsaham.com/laporan-keuangan-saham-UNTR-financial_statement-imq-fundamental.html > ) > > Apakah data 2009 yg salah, atau ada asumsi yg membuat 2010-F bisa melonjak > sampai dua kali seperti itu. > > Thank you Kang. > > Timur > > > -- > *From:* Bagus Putra Perdana > *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > *Sent:* Thu, March 4, 2010 5:24:11 PM > > *Subject:* Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend) > > bisa dicoba sih pak tp tools forward based valuation utk b7 saya > sendiri gak bisa berpegang pada hasilnya, sulit untuk bisa tarik ke > depan untuk saham2 bakrie krn pemegang saham publik sulit untuk > menebak langkah2 dan kebijakan keuangan manajemen grup bakrie dan > mengasumsikan hitungan finansial itu reliable. > > On 04/03/2010, TimurLangit wrote: > > Kang Bagus yang baik. > > Sungguh mulia hati akang kalau Akang bersedia bikinkan juga untuk B7. > > > > Apakah teman2 sependapat dengan saya? > > > > Timur > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > From: Bagus Putra Perdana > > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > > Sent: Thu, March 4, 2010 3:58:56 PM > > Subject: Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend) > > > > > > Gak Bisa Bantu Post Chart dan candle karena bukan teknikalis, jadi bantu > > embah model pro-forma dan valuasi aja buat melengkapi supply > > attachment investdat anya > > > > > > UNTR profit and loss (IDR million) > > Year 2008 2009 2010-F 2011-F 2012-F 2013-F 2014-F > > > > Net sales 27,903,196 29,241,883 35,162,795 41,315,501 47,617,005 > 53,988,202 > > 60,128,775 > > Cost of sales (22,403,902) (22,570,824) (26,797,929) (31,937,249) > > (37,223,229) (42,583,449) (47,758,462) > > Gross profit 5,499,294 6,671,059 8,364,866 9,378,252 10,393,777 > 11,404,753 > > 12,370,314 > > Other operating income 5,542 9,104 9,559 10,037 10,539 11,066 11,619 > > Selling expenses (279,941) (272,315) (264,897) (257,681) (250,661) > (243,833) > > (237,190) > > General administration expenses (1,060,600) (1,230,000) (1,426,457) > > (1,654,292) (1,918,517) (2,224,944) (2,580,314) > > EBITA 4,164,295 5,177,848 6,683,072 7,476,316 8,235,138 8,947,042 > 9,564,429 > > Amortisation of goodwill 0 0 50 50 50 50 50 > > EBIT 4,164,295 5,177,848 6,683,122 7,476,366 8,235,188 8,947,092 > 9,564,479 > > Investment income 68,064 48,996 58,530 58,530 58,530 58,530 58,530 > > Net interest (189,737) (88,768) (27,533) 214,137 571,699 1,095,014 > 1,728,136 > > Other financial items (190,585) 306,162 57,789 57,789 57,789 57,789 > 57,789 > > Net financial items (312,258) 266,390 88,785 330,456 688,017 1,211,332 > > 1,844,454 > > Earnings before tax 3,852,037 5,444,238 6,771,907 7,806,822 8,923,205 > > 10,158,425 11,408,933 > > Income tax (1,166,512) (1,594,543) (1,896,120) (2,185,896) (2,498,483) > > (2,844,345) (3,194,487) > > Tax/Profit 30.3% 29.3% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% > > Group net income 2,685,525 3,849,695 4,875,787 5,620,926 6,424,722 > 7,314,080 > > 8,214,446 > > Minority interest (24,693) (32,154) (40,724) (46,948) (53,662) (61,090) > > (68,610) > > Attributable net income 2,660,832 3,817,541 4,835,063 5,573,978 6,371,060 > > 7,252,990 8,145,836 > > Dividend paid (760,429) (1,164,410) (1,450,519) (1,672,193) (1,911,318) > > (2,175,897) (2,443,751) > > Retained earnings 1,900,403 2,653,131 3,384,544 3,901,785 4,459,742 > > 5,077,093 5,702,085 > > > > Common stock > > Weighted average shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 > 3,326.9 > > 3,326.9 > > Year end shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 > 3,326.9 > > Shares outstanding > > Weighted average shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 > 3,326.9 > > 3,326.9 > > Year end shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 > 3,326.9 > > Earnings per share (IDR) 800 1,147 > > 1,453 1,675 1,915 2,180 > 2,448 > > Common stock dividend (IDR)
Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend)
Data CF Operasi dari laporan keuangan resmi 2009 5,1 T ah dan ini pun sebenernya ada "drawback" dari real capacitynya. normalized 2009 OCF seharusnya kisaran 5.5-5.7 T karena Penjualan alat berat Komatsu baru "pick-up" secara cepat di Q4. sehingga banyak pesanan masuk yang kolektibilitas kasnya pindah ke 2010 awal. piutang usaha UT naik lumayan signifikan sehingga sekilas terlihat dia melonggarkan kebijakan penjualannya supaya ada kemudahan bagi pelanggan. tapi overall kolektibilitas tetep baik sih ini lebih ke emang drastisnya penjualan banyak di Q4 aja. lalu khusus 2010, ada kenaikan pengeluaran non kas karena 2009 UT spend 4.5 T untuk Capex dan penambahan Tangible asset. depresiasinya melonjak lumayan di 2010 tp itu kan non cash item sehingga arus kas 2010 akan lumayan melonjak dibanding 2009 On 04/03/2010, TimurLangit wrote: > > > > Terimakasih Kang Bagus. > > Ndak apa2 Kang, yg penting ada gambaranlah valuasi B7 dari sisi pandang > Akang. > > Anyway Kang, di sheet Akang, kok thn 2010-F, CF from operating activity > nya tinggi sekali ya? sampai 7T gitu. Padahal di thn 2009 cuma 3T (data dari > > http://idsaham.com/laporan-keuangan-saham-UNTR-financial_statement-imq-fundamental.html > ) > > Apakah data 2009 yg salah, atau ada asumsi yg membuat 2010-F bisa melonjak > sampai dua kali seperti itu. > > Thank you Kang. > > Timur > > > -- > *From:* Bagus Putra Perdana > *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > *Sent:* Thu, March 4, 2010 5:24:11 PM > > *Subject:* Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend) > > bisa dicoba sih pak tp tools forward based valuation utk b7 saya > sendiri gak bisa berpegang pada hasilnya, sulit untuk bisa tarik ke > depan untuk saham2 bakrie krn pemegang saham publik sulit untuk > menebak langkah2 dan kebijakan keuangan manajemen grup bakrie dan > mengasumsikan hitungan finansial itu reliable. > > On 04/03/2010, TimurLangit wrote: > > Kang Bagus yang baik. > > Sungguh mulia hati akang kalau Akang bersedia bikinkan juga untuk B7. > > > > Apakah teman2 sependapat dengan saya? > > > > Timur > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > From: Bagus Putra Perdana > > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > > Sent: Thu, March 4, 2010 3:58:56 PM > > Subject: Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend) > > > > > > Gak Bisa Bantu Post Chart dan candle karena bukan teknikalis, jadi bantu > > embah model pro-forma dan valuasi aja buat melengkapi supply > > attachment investdat anya > > > > > > UNTR profit and loss (IDR million) > > Year 2008 2009 2010-F 2011-F 2012-F 2013-F 2014-F > > > > Net sales 27,903,196 29,241,883 35,162,795 41,315,501 47,617,005 > 53,988,202 > > 60,128,775 > > Cost of sales (22,403,902) (22,570,824) (26,797,929) (31,937,249) > > (37,223,229) (42,583,449) (47,758,462) > > Gross profit 5,499,294 6,671,059 8,364,866 9,378,252 10,393,777 > 11,404,753 > > 12,370,314 > > Other operating income 5,542 9,104 9,559 10,037 10,539 11,066 11,619 > > Selling expenses (279,941) (272,315) (264,897) (257,681) (250,661) > (243,833) > > (237,190) > > General administration expenses (1,060,600) (1,230,000) (1,426,457) > > (1,654,292) (1,918,517) (2,224,944) (2,580,314) > > EBITA 4,164,295 5,177,848 6,683,072 7,476,316 8,235,138 8,947,042 > 9,564,429 > > Amortisation of goodwill 0 0 50 50 50 50 50 > > EBIT 4,164,295 5,177,848 6,683,122 7,476,366 8,235,188 8,947,092 > 9,564,479 > > Investment income 68,064 48,996 58,530 58,530 58,530 58,530 58,530 > > Net interest (189,737) (88,768) (27,533) 214,137 571,699 1,095,014 > 1,728,136 > > Other financial items (190,585) 306,162 57,789 57,789 57,789 57,789 > 57,789 > > Net financial items (312,258) 266,390 88,785 330,456 688,017 1,211,332 > > 1,844,454 > > Earnings before tax 3,852,037 5,444,238 6,771,907 7,806,822 8,923,205 > > 10,158,425 11,408,933 > > Income tax (1,166,512) (1,594,543) (1,896,120) (2,185,896) (2,498,483) > > (2,844,345) (3,194,487) > > Tax/Profit 30.3% 29.3% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% > > Group net income 2,685,525 3,849,695 4,875,787 5,620,926 6,424,722 > 7,314,080 > > 8,214,446 > > Minority interest (24,693) (32,154) (40,724) (46,948) (53,662) (61,090) > > (68,610) > > Attributable net income 2,660,832 3,817,541 4,835,063 5,573,978 6,371,060 > > 7,252,990 8,145,836 > > Dividend paid (760,429) (1,164,410) (1,450,519) (1,672,193) (1,911,318) > > (2,175,897) (2,443,751) > > Retained earnings 1,900,403 2,653,131 3,384,544 3,901,785 4,459,742 > > 5,07
RE: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend)
Khusus Tuah Turangga sampai 2012 bikin kantong UNTR tergerus nett profit,,,kalo Power Plant sudah runnning setrumnya baru mantaf Bang Ian -Original Message- From: Irwan Napitupulu Sent: 04-03-2010, 17.29 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend) Kalau mengacu ke perkiraan EPS 2014 sebesar 2448. Dengan menggunakan tingkat diskonto 10%, dan menggunakan perkiraan dividend bersih setelah pajak katakan 500 perak saja p.a, dan dengan asumsi perilaku harga saham normal2 saja terhadap laba seperti selama ini, maka saya dapat hitungan harga wajar UNTR di 14050. Lebih rendah lagi lebih baik. Dengan kata lain di harga sekarang di 16800 itu akan setara dengan ER (expected return/perkiraan cuan) 5,9% p.a. selama 5 tahun ke depan. FM sih harusnya ngga doyan ya dengan saham beginian, ketimbang di taruh di UNTR yg ER nya hanya 5,9%, mending ditaruh di fixed income yg ER nya bisa sekitar 9-10% p.a. IAN On Thu, Mar 4, 2010 at 3:58 PM, Bagus Putra Perdana < disclosure@gmail.com> wrote: > > > Gak Bisa Bantu Post Chart dan candle karena bukan teknikalis, jadi bantu > embah model pro-forma dan valuasi aja buat melengkapi supply > attachment investdatanya > > >*UNTR profit and loss (IDR million)* ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** > ** ** ** ** ** *Year* *2008* *2009* *2010-F* *2011-F* *2012-F* *2013-F* * > 2014-F* Net sales 27,903,196 29,241,883 35,162,795 > 41,315,501 47,617,005 53,988,202 60,128,775 Cost of sales (22,403,902) > (22,570,824) (26,797,929) (31,937,249) (37,223,229) (42,583,449) > (47,758,462) Gross profit 5,499,294 6,671,059 8,364,866 9,378,252 > 10,393,777 11,404,753 12,370,314 Other operating income 5,542 9,104 9,559 > 10,037 10,539 11,066 11,619 Selling expenses (279,941) (272,315) (264,897) > (257,681) (250,661) (243,833) (237,190) General administration expenses > (1,060,600) (1,230,000) (1,426,457) (1,654,292) (1,918,517) (2,224,944) > (2,580,314) EBITA 4,164,295 5,177,848 6,683,072 7,476,316 8,235,138 > 8,947,042 9,564,429 Amortisation of goodwill 0 0 50 50 50 50 50 EBIT > 4,164,295 5,177,848 6,683,122 7,476,366 8,235,188 8,947,092 9,564,479 > Investment > income 68,064 48,996 58,530 58,530 58,530 58,530 58,530 Net interest > (189,737) (88,768) (27,533) 214,137 571,699 1,095,014 1,728,136 Other > financial items (190,585) 306,162 57,789 57,789 57,789 57,789 57,789 Net > financial items (312,258) 266,390 88,785 330,456 688,017 1,211,332 > 1,844,454 Earnings before tax 3,852,037 5,444,238 6,771,907 7,806,822 > 8,923,205 10,158,425 11,408,933 Income tax (1,166,512) (1,594,543) > (1,896,120) (2,185,896) (2,498,483) (2,844,345) (3,194,487) Tax/Profit > 30.3% 29.3% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% Group net income 2,685,525 > 3,849,695 4,875,787 5,620,926 6,424,722 7,314,080 8,214,446 Minority > interest (24,693) (32,154) (40,724) (46,948) (53,662) (61,090) (68,610) > *Attributable > net income* 2,660,832 3,817,541 4,835,063 5,573,978 6,371,060 7,252,990 > 8,145,836 Dividend paid (760,429) (1,164,410) (1,450,519) (1,672,193) > (1,911,318) (2,175,897) (2,443,751) Retained earnings 1,900,403 2,653,131 > 3,384,544 3,901,785 4,459,742 5,077,093 5,702,085 Common > stock Weighted average shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 > 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 Year end shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 > 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 Shares outstanding > Weighted > average shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 > Year > end shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 > Earnings > per share (IDR) 800 1,147 1,453 > 1,6751,915 2,180 2,448 Common stock > dividend (IDR) 229 350436 > 503 575 654 735 > >*UNTR balance sheet (IDR million)* ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** > ** ** ** ** *Year* *2008* *2009* *2010 - F* *2011 - F* *2012 - F* *2013 - > F* *2014 - F* *Fixed assets* Goodwill 0 0 50 > 100 150 200 250 Tangible assets 9,505,248 11,858,017 13,534,219 14,247,133 > 14,140,731 12,444,277 10,304,521 Financial assets 207,318 313,349 404,444 > 452,449 498,371 541,453 578,816 Total fixed assets 9,712,566 12,171,366 > 13,938,713 14,699,682 14,639,252 12,985,930 10,883,586 > *Current > assets* Inventories 5,246,343 3,966,358 4,709,185 5,612,315 > 6,541,217 7,483,165 8,392,567 Trade receivables 3,470,549 4,462,606 > 5,366,197 6,305,162 7,266,835 8,239,144 9,176,257 Other receivables and > other assets 211,264 162,946 195,939 230,224 265,339 300,841 335,059 Cash > and cash equivalents 3,324,942 2,769,187 3,445,740 5,566,623 9,192,386
Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend)
Terimakasih Kang Bagus. Ndak apa2 Kang, yg penting ada gambaranlah valuasi B7 dari sisi pandang Akang. Anyway Kang, di sheet Akang, kok thn 2010-F, CF from operating activity nya tinggi sekali ya? sampai 7T gitu. Padahal di thn 2009 cuma 3T (data dari http://idsaham.com/laporan-keuangan-saham-UNTR-financial_statement-imq-fundamental.html) Apakah data 2009 yg salah, atau ada asumsi yg membuat 2010-F bisa melonjak sampai dua kali seperti itu. Thank you Kang. Timur From: Bagus Putra Perdana To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Thu, March 4, 2010 5:24:11 PM Subject: Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend) bisa dicoba sih pak tp tools forward based valuation utk b7 saya sendiri gak bisa berpegang pada hasilnya, sulit untuk bisa tarik ke depan untuk saham2 bakrie krn pemegang saham publik sulit untuk menebak langkah2 dan kebijakan keuangan manajemen grup bakrie dan mengasumsikan hitungan finansial itu reliable. On 04/03/2010, TimurLangit wrote: > Kang Bagus yang baik. > Sungguh mulia hati akang kalau Akang bersedia bikinkan juga untuk B7. > > Apakah teman2 sependapat dengan saya? > > Timur > > > > > > > > > From: Bagus Putra Perdana > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > Sent: Thu, March 4, 2010 3:58:56 PM > Subject: Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend) > > > Gak Bisa Bantu Post Chart dan candle karena bukan teknikalis, jadi bantu > embah model pro-forma dan valuasi aja buat melengkapi supply > attachment investdat anya > > > UNTR profit and loss (IDR million) > Year 2008 2009 2010-F 2011-F 2012-F 2013-F 2014-F > > Net sales 27,903,196 29,241,883 35,162,795 41,315,501 47,617,005 53,988,202 > 60,128,775 > Cost of sales (22,403,902) (22,570,824) (26,797,929) (31,937,249) > (37,223,229) (42,583,449) (47,758,462) > Gross profit 5,499,294 6,671,059 8,364,866 9,378,252 10,393,777 11,404,753 > 12,370,314 > Other operating income 5,542 9,104 9,559 10,037 10,539 11,066 11,619 > Selling expenses (279,941) (272,315) (264,897) (257,681) (250,661) (243,833) > (237,190) > General administration expenses (1,060,600) (1,230,000) (1,426,457) > (1,654,292) (1,918,517) (2,224,944) (2,580,314) > EBITA 4,164,295 5,177,848 6,683,072 7,476,316 8,235,138 8,947,042 9,564,429 > Amortisation of goodwill 0 0 50 50 50 50 50 > EBIT 4,164,295 5,177,848 6,683,122 7,476,366 8,235,188 8,947,092 9,564,479 > Investment income 68,064 48,996 58,530 58,530 58,530 58,530 58,530 > Net interest (189,737) (88,768) (27,533) 214,137 571,699 1,095,014 1,728,136 > Other financial items (190,585) 306,162 57,789 57,789 57,789 57,789 57,789 > Net financial items (312,258) 266,390 88,785 330,456 688,017 1,211,332 > 1,844,454 > Earnings before tax 3,852,037 5,444,238 6,771,907 7,806,822 8,923,205 > 10,158,425 11,408,933 > Income tax (1,166,512) (1,594,543) (1,896,120) (2,185,896) (2,498,483) > (2,844,345) (3,194,487) > Tax/Profit 30.3% 29.3% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% > Group net income 2,685,525 3,849,695 4,875,787 5,620,926 6,424,722 7,314,080 > 8,214,446 > Minority interest (24,693) (32,154) (40,724) (46,948) (53,662) (61,090) > (68,610) > Attributable net income 2,660,832 3,817,541 4,835,063 5,573,978 6,371,060 > 7,252,990 8,145,836 > Dividend paid (760,429) (1,164,410) (1,450,519) (1,672,193) (1,911,318) > (2,175,897) (2,443,751) > Retained earnings 1,900,403 2,653,131 3,384,544 3,901,785 4,459,742 > 5,077,093 5,702,085 > > Common stock > Weighted average shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 > 3,326.9 > Year end shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 > Shares outstanding > Weighted average shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 > 3,326.9 > Year end shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 > Earnings per share (IDR) 800 1,147 > 1,453 1,675 1,915 2,180 2,448 > Common stock dividend (IDR) 229 350 > 436 503 575 654 > 735 > > UNTR balance sheet (IDR million) > Year 2008 2009 2010 - F 2011 - F 2012 - F 2013 - F 2014 - F > > Fixed assets > Goodwill 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 > Tangible assets 9,505,248 11,858,017 13,534,219 14,247,133 14,140,731 > 12,444,277 10,304,521 > Financial assets 207,318 313,349 404,444 452,449 498,371 541,453 578,816 > Total fixed assets 9,712,566 12,171,366 13,938,713 14,699,682 14,639,252 > 12,985,930 10,883,586 > > Current assets > Inventories 5,246,343 3,966,358 4,709,185 5,612,315 6,541,217 7,483,165 > 8,392,567 > Trade receivables 3,470,549 4,462,606 5,366,197 6,305,162 7,266,835 > 8,239,144 9,176
Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend)
Oh gitu . Terima kasih kang. Salam Lukman On 4 March 2010 17:19, Bagus Putra Perdana wrote: > Asumsi penjualan dan COGS per segmen bisnis pak. 3 segmen bisnis UT > masing2 heavy equipment, mining contracting dan coal mining. Per > segmen dimasukkan asumsi volume (untuk komatsu), sedang untuk pama > persada asumsi market cap dan tren pertumbuhan sementara untuk tuah > turangga disesuaikan sama target produksi dan harga batubara > > On 04/03/2010, lkm jkt wrote: > > Kang Ocey. > > > > Untuk penjualan di th 2010 di 35.162.795 (ini didapat dari mana ) dan > th > > 2011 dan seterusnya. > > > > Apakah di perkirakan penjualnya akan naik berdasarkan asumsi , > > > > Asumsi ini berdasarkan sejarah , atau dari target perusahaan. > > > > sedangkan antara 2008 : 2009 = naik sekitar 4.8 % > > 2009 : 2010 =20 % > > 2010 : 2011 =17.5 % > >selanjutnya15 % , 13 % , 11 % . > > > > cara hitungnya ngerti , tapi cara dapatin nya asumsi pertumbuhan (ini > saya > > nga tau, biasanya saya pakai yg tahun sebelumnya) > > > > > > Salam > > > > > > Lukman > > > > > > > > > > On 4 March 2010 15:58, Bagus Putra Perdana > wrote: > > > >> > >> > >> Gak Bisa Bantu Post Chart dan candle karena bukan teknikalis, jadi bantu > >> embah model pro-forma dan valuasi aja buat melengkapi supply > >> attachment investdatanya > >> >
Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend)
Asumsi penjualan dan COGS per segmen bisnis pak. 3 segmen bisnis UT masing2 heavy equipment, mining contracting dan coal mining. Per segmen dimasukkan asumsi volume (untuk komatsu), sedang untuk pama persada asumsi market cap dan tren pertumbuhan sementara untuk tuah turangga disesuaikan sama target produksi dan harga batubara On 04/03/2010, lkm jkt wrote: > Kang Ocey. > > Untuk penjualan di th 2010 di 35.162.795 (ini didapat dari mana ) dan th > 2011 dan seterusnya. > > Apakah di perkirakan penjualnya akan naik berdasarkan asumsi , > > Asumsi ini berdasarkan sejarah , atau dari target perusahaan. > > sedangkan antara 2008 : 2009 = naik sekitar 4.8 % > 2009 : 2010 =20 % > 2010 : 2011 =17.5 % >selanjutnya15 % , 13 % , 11 % . > > cara hitungnya ngerti , tapi cara dapatin nya asumsi pertumbuhan (ini saya > nga tau, biasanya saya pakai yg tahun sebelumnya) > > > Salam > > > Lukman > > > > > On 4 March 2010 15:58, Bagus Putra Perdana wrote: > >> >> >> Gak Bisa Bantu Post Chart dan candle karena bukan teknikalis, jadi bantu >> embah model pro-forma dan valuasi aja buat melengkapi supply >> attachment investdatanya >> >> >>*UNTR profit and loss (IDR million)* ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** >> ** ** ** ** ** *Year* *2008* *2009* *2010-F* *2011-F* *2012-F* *2013-F* * >> 2014-F* Net sales 27,903,196 29,241,883 35,162,795 >> 41,315,501 47,617,005 53,988,202 60,128,775 Cost of sales (22,403,902) >> (22,570,824) (26,797,929) (31,937,249) (37,223,229) (42,583,449) >> (47,758,462) Gross profit 5,499,294 6,671,059 8,364,866 9,378,252 >> 10,393,777 11,404,753 12,370,314 Other operating income 5,542 9,104 9,559 >> 10,037 10,539 11,066 11,619 Selling expenses (279,941) (272,315) (264,897) >> (257,681) (250,661) (243,833) (237,190) General administration expenses >> (1,060,600) (1,230,000) (1,426,457) (1,654,292) (1,918,517) (2,224,944) >> (2,580,314) EBITA 4,164,295 5,177,848 6,683,072 7,476,316 8,235,138 >> 8,947,042 9,564,429 Amortisation of goodwill 0 0 50 50 50 50 50 EBIT >> 4,164,295 5,177,848 6,683,122 7,476,366 8,235,188 8,947,092 9,564,479 >> Investment >> income 68,064 48,996 58,530 58,530 58,530 58,530 58,530 Net interest >> (189,737) (88,768) (27,533) 214,137 571,699 1,095,014 1,728,136 Other >> financial items (190,585) 306,162 57,789 57,789 57,789 57,789 57,789 Net >> financial items (312,258) 266,390 88,785 330,456 688,017 1,211,332 >> 1,844,454 Earnings before tax 3,852,037 5,444,238 6,771,907 7,806,822 >> 8,923,205 10,158,425 11,408,933 Income tax (1,166,512) (1,594,543) >> (1,896,120) (2,185,896) (2,498,483) (2,844,345) (3,194,487) Tax/Profit >> 30.3% 29.3% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% Group net income 2,685,525 >> 3,849,695 4,875,787 5,620,926 6,424,722 7,314,080 8,214,446 Minority >> interest (24,693) (32,154) (40,724) (46,948) (53,662) (61,090) (68,610) >> *Attributable >> net income* 2,660,832 3,817,541 4,835,063 5,573,978 6,371,060 7,252,990 >> 8,145,836 Dividend paid (760,429) (1,164,410) (1,450,519) (1,672,193) >> (1,911,318) (2,175,897) (2,443,751) Retained earnings 1,900,403 2,653,131 >> 3,384,544 3,901,785 4,459,742 5,077,093 5,702,085 Common >> stock Weighted average shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 >> 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 Year end shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 >> 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 Shares outstanding >> Weighted >> average shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 >> Year >> end shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 >> Earnings >> per share (IDR) 800 1,147 1,453 >> 1,6751,915 2,180 2,448 Common stock >> dividend (IDR) 229 350436 >> 503 575 654 735 >> >>*UNTR balance sheet (IDR million)* ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** >> ** ** ** ** *Year* *2008* *2009* *2010 - F* *2011 - F* *2012 - F* *2013 - >> F* *2014 - F* *Fixed assets* Goodwill 0 0 >> 50 100 150 200 250 Tangible assets 9,505,248 11,858,017 13,534,219 >> 14,247,133 14,140,731 12,444,277 10,304,521 Financial assets 207,318 >> 313,349 404,444 452,449 498,371 541,453 578,816 Total fixed assets >> 9,712,566 12,171,366 13,938,713 14,699,682 14,639,252 12,985,930 >> 10,883,586 *Current assets* Inventories >> 5,246,343 3,966,358 4,709,185 5,612,315 6,541,217 7,483,165 8,392,567 >> Trade >> receivables 3,470,549 4,462,606 5,366,197 6,305,162 7,266,835 8,239,144 >> 9,176,257 Other receivables and other assets 211,264 162,946 195,939 >> 230,224 265,339 300,841 335,059 Cash and cash equivalents 3,324,942 >> 2,769,187 3,445,740 5,566,623 9,192,386 14,777,577 21,679,099 Total >> current assets 12,253,098 11,361,097 13,717,061 17,714,324 23,265,7
Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend)
bisa dicoba sih pak tp tools forward based valuation utk b7 saya sendiri gak bisa berpegang pada hasilnya, sulit untuk bisa tarik ke depan untuk saham2 bakrie krn pemegang saham publik sulit untuk menebak langkah2 dan kebijakan keuangan manajemen grup bakrie dan mengasumsikan hitungan finansial itu reliable. On 04/03/2010, TimurLangit wrote: > Kang Bagus yang baik. > Sungguh mulia hati akang kalau Akang bersedia bikinkan juga untuk B7. > > Apakah teman2 sependapat dengan saya? > > Timur > > > > > > > > > From: Bagus Putra Perdana > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > Sent: Thu, March 4, 2010 3:58:56 PM > Subject: Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend) > > > Gak Bisa Bantu Post Chart dan candle karena bukan teknikalis, jadi bantu > embah model pro-forma dan valuasi aja buat melengkapi supply > attachment investdat anya > > > UNTR profit and loss (IDR million) > Year 2008 2009 2010-F 2011-F 2012-F 2013-F 2014-F > > Net sales 27,903,196 29,241,883 35,162,795 41,315,501 47,617,005 53,988,202 > 60,128,775 > Cost of sales (22,403,902) (22,570,824) (26,797,929) (31,937,249) > (37,223,229) (42,583,449) (47,758,462) > Gross profit 5,499,294 6,671,059 8,364,866 9,378,252 10,393,777 11,404,753 > 12,370,314 > Other operating income 5,542 9,104 9,559 10,037 10,539 11,066 11,619 > Selling expenses (279,941) (272,315) (264,897) (257,681) (250,661) (243,833) > (237,190) > General administration expenses (1,060,600) (1,230,000) (1,426,457) > (1,654,292) (1,918,517) (2,224,944) (2,580,314) > EBITA 4,164,295 5,177,848 6,683,072 7,476,316 8,235,138 8,947,042 9,564,429 > Amortisation of goodwill 0 0 50 50 50 50 50 > EBIT 4,164,295 5,177,848 6,683,122 7,476,366 8,235,188 8,947,092 9,564,479 > Investment income 68,064 48,996 58,530 58,530 58,530 58,530 58,530 > Net interest (189,737) (88,768) (27,533) 214,137 571,699 1,095,014 1,728,136 > Other financial items (190,585) 306,162 57,789 57,789 57,789 57,789 57,789 > Net financial items (312,258) 266,390 88,785 330,456 688,017 1,211,332 > 1,844,454 > Earnings before tax 3,852,037 5,444,238 6,771,907 7,806,822 8,923,205 > 10,158,425 11,408,933 > Income tax (1,166,512) (1,594,543) (1,896,120) (2,185,896) (2,498,483) > (2,844,345) (3,194,487) > Tax/Profit 30.3% 29.3% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% > Group net income 2,685,525 3,849,695 4,875,787 5,620,926 6,424,722 7,314,080 > 8,214,446 > Minority interest (24,693) (32,154) (40,724) (46,948) (53,662) (61,090) > (68,610) > Attributable net income 2,660,832 3,817,541 4,835,063 5,573,978 6,371,060 > 7,252,990 8,145,836 > Dividend paid (760,429) (1,164,410) (1,450,519) (1,672,193) (1,911,318) > (2,175,897) (2,443,751) > Retained earnings 1,900,403 2,653,131 3,384,544 3,901,785 4,459,742 > 5,077,093 5,702,085 > > Common stock > Weighted average shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 > 3,326.9 > Year end shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 > Shares outstanding > Weighted average shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 > 3,326.9 > Year end shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 > Earnings per share (IDR) 800 1,147 > 1,453 1,675 1,915 2,180 2,448 > Common stock dividend (IDR) 229 350 > 436 503 575 654 > 735 > > UNTR balance sheet (IDR million) > Year 2008 2009 2010 - F 2011 - F 2012 - F 2013 - F 2014 - F > > Fixed assets > Goodwill 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 > Tangible assets 9,505,248 11,858,017 13,534,219 14,247,133 14,140,731 > 12,444,277 10,304,521 > Financial assets 207,318 313,349 404,444 452,449 498,371 541,453 578,816 > Total fixed assets 9,712,566 12,171,366 13,938,713 14,699,682 14,639,252 > 12,985,930 10,883,586 > > Current assets > Inventories 5,246,343 3,966,358 4,709,185 5,612,315 6,541,217 7,483,165 > 8,392,567 > Trade receivables 3,470,549 4,462,606 5,366,197 6,305,162 7,266,835 > 8,239,144 9,176,257 > Other receivables and other assets 211,264 162,946 195,939 230,224 265,339 > 300,841 335,059 > Cash and cash equivalents 3,324,942 2,769,187 3,445,740 5,566,623 9,192,386 > 14,777,577 21,679,099 > Total current assets 12,253,098 11,361,097 13,717,061 17,714,324 23,265,776 > 30,800,727 39,582,982 > > Deferred tax assets 56,247 32,367 50,000 51,500 51,500 51,500 51,500 > > Prepaid expenses and deferred charges 825,810 839,998 875,000 875,000 > 875,000 875,000 875,000 > > Total assets 22,847,721 24,404,828 28,580,774 33,340,506 38,831,528 > 44,713,156 51,393,068 > > Equity > Capital stock 831,720 831,720
Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend)
sori pak.. alangkah baeknya di share dalam bentuk PDF aja pak.. more storage.. tapi lebih rapi.. karena notepad ukuran standard setiap orang berbeda beda .. sehingga hasilnya jadi lebih berantakan pak.. just a little cents of mine. thx n regards, David 2010/2/26 jsx_consultant > > > UNTR: Final Result 2010 > > Please find attached: > > - http://www.investdata.net/QYUNTR.TXT > > Note: > - Menurunnya performance pada akhir tahun nampaknya musiman, > karena tahun lalu pun polanya sama (Angka Quarterly dibagian bawah) > > > -- - Never be sad for what is over, just be glad that it was once yours -
[ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend)
UNTR: Final Result 2010 Please find attached: - http://www.investdata.net/QYUNTR.TXT Note: - Menurunnya performance pada akhir tahun nampaknya musiman, karena tahun lalu pun polanya sama (Angka Quarterly dibagian bawah)
[ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010
UNTR: Final Result 2010 Please find attached: - http://wwwinvestdata.net/QYUNTR.TXT Note: - Menurunnya performance pada akhir tahun nampaknya musiman, karena tahun lalu pun polanya sama (Angka Quarterly dibagian bawah)
