Re: [obrolan-bandar] Revisi Tahun (Yang bener aza...)

2006-01-08 Terurut Topik Meutia Kurniasih 





Portfolio yg "top down"...kita construct 
porftolio which in the first stage of this approach, the fundamental analyst 
examines the state of the economy of the country and its future performance as 
these have a significant impact on the prices of shares. more specifically, this 
involves an appraisal of some key indicators and fiscal policy.
The second stage of the top down approach involves 
a study of the various industries with the view of selecting those that are 
likely to perform better than others. By concentrating on industries that will 
do well, it is possible not only to shorten the stock selection prospectc. A 
good company in an industry with a poor outlook would probably perform worse 
than an average company in another industry with high growth 
prospect.
The third stage of this approach, we would 
evaluate individual companies within the selected industries. these include 
financial analysis of the company, and evaluation of its biz, management and 
forecast of its earnings.

Sedangkan bottom up porfolios, adalah 
kebalikannnya. Kita melakukan studi terhadap stock2 yg kita pilih biasanya 
melalui stock selection strategy (first stage). Trus kita liat kondisi biz dari 
perusahaan itu, trus stlh itu baru melihat kondisi industri di perusahaan 
tersebut, trus baru ngeliat lagi kondisi ekonomi dari suatu negara. If semuanya 
ok, baru kita invest. Warren buffet memakai cara "bottom up" approach. Dia 
melihat coca cola adalah perusahaan dgn margin profit yg sangat besar with 
stable return.He was damn right. Tp caraseperti ini sepertinya selalu 
underperform dibandingkan top down appraoch for indonesian context.

Saham yg favourable (top down approach di thn 2005) 
adalah saham2 yg bergerak di bidang mining, natural gas
Sedangkan utk thn 2006, kita tetap berat ke 
mining, natural gas plus telecommunication,food industries and heavy 
equipment

Portfolioperusahaan saya bekerja, terdiri 
cuman dari not more than8 saham. Boz saya lebih memilih concentration over 
diversification.
Sedangkan saya pribadi, punya portfolio yg terdiri 
dari sekitar 15 saham yg performancenya jauuuh 
sekali dibawahperformance porfolio perusahaan (saya memilih 
diversification).
Trus yg aneh lagi, buy and hold strategy works damn 
well in indonesia daripada trading.
Riset saya kerjakan thn 2002-current.



  - Original Message - 
  From: 
  Karno Edy 
  
  To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
  
  Sent: Sunday, January 08, 2006 2:22 
  PM
  Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Revisi 
  Tahun (Yang bener aza...)
  
  ape maksudnya portfolio nyang top down sama yg 
  bottom up?
  
- Original Message - 
From: 
Meutia Kurniasih 
To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 

Sent: Sunday, January 08, 2006 9:34 
AM
Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Revisi 
    Tahun (Yang bener aza...)

Pgas menurut value investor, udah diatas 
nilai wajar
Tp pgas mempunyai karakteristik saham sesuai 
teori "pyschology of investing"
Apakah kitatetap nekatinvest di 
saham ini?
Tergantung kita punya metoda apa
portfolio saya sendiri masih consist pgas, tp 
itu waktu beli di harga murah
Beli diharga 
sekarang...?..kayaknya saya sendiri nggak berani utk ngikutin 
the proventheory

Di indonesia, "top down approach" portfolio 
selama kurun waktu 2002-current, outperform porfolio "bottom 
up"
Beda total dgn di singapore atau di korea (or 
negara yg lebih maju), mostly bottom up will outperform top down 
approach
Trus value stock(selama kurun waktu di 
atas) nggak pernah outperform saham yg punya karakteristik "pyschology of 
investing" (contohnya pgas, atnm, isat)

  - Original Message - 
  From: darma erwin 
  To: saham@yahoogroups.com ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
  ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
  ; obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
  ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
  
      Sent: Saturday, January 07, 2006 6:26 PM
  Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Revisi Tahun (Yang bener 
  aza…..)
  
  
  IHSG 1.222 PGAS doang yang naik… huahahahaa.. duit 
  dari mane coy (mau nunggu Bom Kuningan maning yakk….) mending sekarang 
  yang listing di BEJ PGAS, TLKM dan ISAT aza dech.….. dulu kate W. 
  Simanjuntak PGAS akan RI jika Rp. 3.000,- wah2….apaann….nich…buat yang 
  waras; masih banyak second liner yang sehat, pay attention. Bagaimanapun 
  tanda2 bursa yang sehat adalah masa2 yang terjadi pada Januari-Maret 
  2005.
  
  Salam,
  
  
  Yahoo! PhotosRing in the New Year with Photo 
  Calendars. Add photos, events, holidays, whatever. 
  

  




  
  
  YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS



  Visit your group "obrolan-bandar" on the web.
  To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
  Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.

[obrolan-bandar] Revisi Tahun (Yang bener aza�..)

2006-01-07 Terurut Topik darma erwin 



  IHSG 1.222 PGAS doang yang naik… huahahahaa.. duit dari mane coy (mau nunggu Bom Kuningan maning yakk….) mending sekarang yang listing di BEJ PGAS, TLKM dan ISAT aza dech.….. dulu kate W. Simanjuntak PGAS akan RI jika Rp. 3.000,- wah2….apaann….nich…buat yang waras; masih banyak second liner yang sehat, pay attention. Bagaimanapun tanda2 bursa yang sehat adalah masa2 yang terjadi pada Januari-Maret 2005.Salam,
		Yahoo! Photos 
Ring in the New Year with Photo Calendars. Add photos, events, holidays, whatever.




  
  
SPONSORED LINKS
  
  
  

Business finance course
  
  
Business to business finance
  
  
Small business finance
  
  


Business finance consultant
  
  
Business finance magazine
  
  
Business finance schools
  
  

   
  







  
  
  YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS



  Visit your group "obrolan-bandar" on the web.
  To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
  Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Revisi Tahun (Yang bener aza. ..)

2006-01-07 Terurut Topik Meutia Kurniasih 





Pgas menurut value investor, udah diatas nilai 
wajar
Tp pgas mempunyai karakteristik saham sesuai teori 
"pyschology of investing"
Apakah kitatetap nekatinvest di saham 
ini?
Tergantung kita punya metoda apa
portfolio saya sendiri masih consist pgas, tp itu 
waktu beli di harga murah
Beli diharga sekarang...?..kayaknya 
saya sendiri nggak berani utk ngikutin the proventheory

Di indonesia, "top down approach" portfolio selama 
kurun waktu 2002-current, outperform porfolio "bottom 
up"
Beda total dgn di singapore atau di korea (or 
negara yg lebih maju), mostly bottom up will outperform top down 
approach
Trus value stock(selama kurun waktu di atas) 
nggak pernah outperform saham yg punya karakteristik "pyschology of investing" 
(contohnya pgas, atnm, isat)

  - Original Message - 
  From: 
  darma erwin 
  To: saham@yahoogroups.com ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
  ; obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
  ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
  
  Sent: Saturday, January 07, 2006 6:26 
  PM
  Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Revisi Tahun 
  (Yang bener aza…..)
  
  
  IHSG 1.222 PGAS 
  doang yang naik… huahahahaa.. duit dari mane coy (mau nunggu Bom Kuningan 
  maning yakk….) mending sekarang yang listing di BEJ PGAS, TLKM dan ISAT aza 
  dech.….. dulu kate W. Simanjuntak PGAS akan RI jika Rp. 3.000,- 
  wah2….apaann….nich…buat yang waras; masih banyak second liner yang sehat, pay 
  attention. Bagaimanapun tanda2 bursa yang sehat adalah masa2 yang terjadi pada 
  Januari-Maret 2005.
  
  Salam,
  
  
  Yahoo! PhotosRing in the New Year with Photo 
  Calendars. Add photos, events, holidays, whatever. 

  




  
  
  YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS



  Visit your group "obrolan-bandar" on the web.
  To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
  Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.

Re: [obrolan-bandar] Revisi Tahun (Yang bener aza...)

2006-01-07 Terurut Topik Karno Edy 





ape maksudnya portfolio nyang top down sama yg 
bottom up?

  - Original Message - 
  From: 
  Meutia 
  Kurniasih 
  To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
  
  Sent: Sunday, January 08, 2006 9:34 
  AM
  Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Revisi 
  Tahun (Yang bener aza...)
  
  Pgas menurut value investor, udah diatas nilai 
  wajar
  Tp pgas mempunyai karakteristik saham sesuai 
  teori "pyschology of investing"
  Apakah kitatetap nekatinvest di 
  saham ini?
  Tergantung kita punya metoda apa
  portfolio saya sendiri masih consist pgas, tp 
  itu waktu beli di harga murah
  Beli diharga sekarang...?..kayaknya 
  saya sendiri nggak berani utk ngikutin the proventheory
  
  Di indonesia, "top down approach" portfolio 
  selama kurun waktu 2002-current, outperform porfolio "bottom 
  up"
  Beda total dgn di singapore atau di korea (or 
  negara yg lebih maju), mostly bottom up will outperform top down 
  approach
  Trus value stock(selama kurun waktu di 
  atas) nggak pernah outperform saham yg punya karakteristik "pyschology of 
  investing" (contohnya pgas, atnm, isat)
  
- Original Message - 
From: darma erwin 
To: saham@yahoogroups.com ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] ; 
[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
; obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com 
; [EMAIL PROTECTED] 

Sent: Saturday, January 07, 2006 6:26 PM
    Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Revisi Tahun (Yang bener 
aza…..)


IHSG 1.222 PGAS doang yang naik… huahahahaa.. duit dari 
mane coy (mau nunggu Bom Kuningan maning yakk….) mending sekarang yang 
listing di BEJ PGAS, TLKM dan ISAT aza dech.….. dulu kate W. Simanjuntak 
PGAS akan RI jika Rp. 3.000,- wah2….apaann….nich…buat yang waras; masih 
banyak second liner yang sehat, pay attention. Bagaimanapun tanda2 bursa 
yang sehat adalah masa2 yang terjadi pada Januari-Maret 
2005.

Salam,


Yahoo! PhotosRing in the New Year with Photo 
Calendars. Add photos, events, holidays, whatever. 

  




  
  
  YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS



  Visit your group "obrolan-bandar" on the web.
  To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
  Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.