[PEN-L:384] Re: R-Saving Private Ryan
In a message dated 98-07-30 08:43:51 EDT, you write: This veteran of many bombing missions over France and Germany finds it incredible that those who told of their fathers' experiences displayed no awareness of the fact that if it had not been for the Soviets (Russians we called them in those days) their fathers might well have never come back. Frank, My dad met the Red Army at the Elbe and had the UTMOST respect for them. People that have survived the terror and chaos of combat don't have to speak the same language to understand. He recounted to me how many RA soldiers barely had boots on their feet and how miserable they seemed (mind you, my dad got frozen feet because Patton thought the campaign would be over by Fall!). While the GIs of my dad's company shared their food, partied and hung out together, his Sgt. (a staunch union guy) said "we shouldn't stop at the Elbe, we can make it to Vladivostok." My dad thought the guy was nuts. BTW, all the comments from Jim C, Jim D, Frances, Mike Y, Louis P. and anyone else. I was reluctant to share what I consider somewhat personal stuff. I was moved by these re-collections, and to know that others experienced a similar remoteness/reluctance from their fathers to talk about their wartime experiences. Thanks, Jason
[PEN-L:335] Re: Saving Private Ryan
I just read Valis' "review" of Saving Private Ryan. Sounds pretty depressing - especially going to a coffee bar afterwords. I haven't seen the movie but I thought I'd like to share some thoughts about the sentimentality associated with WW II, and perhaps Spielberg's motivation. My dad was a front-line grunt (infantryman) who, at 19, was fighting in the Battle of the Bulge. He never, ever, spoke about his experiences in great detail, despite my prodding, and I have never pushed him to tell me. Though I'd say his politics are conservative (but thoughtful), he NEVER embellished his war experiences in patriotic terms - in fact he never went in for the flag-waving VFW stuff. A few years back, he finally made some comments about this latter point. He said that when your under fire, your only concern is about staying alive and your concern for your buddy - all the other grander ideals don't mean anything. You live for the moment; 99% of your time is spent trying to stave off the mind-numbing discomforts of cold, hunger and boredom. Despite the US army's vaunted logistical support, they sent my dad and his division to the line in with summer boots!!! My dad got frozen feet; he didn't have a bath or shower for a stretch of 6 weeks as they moved through Belgium and into Germany; often his squad would get a bit a head that they couldn't get k-rations. One time, he told me how they came upon a farmhous where the German's had just abandoned and they found a fresh loaf of bread. My dad was starving and just devoured it, despite having been told that it might be poisoned. These are the few types of stories he has told me. As a kid growing up, I was always very proud of my dad' having fought in the last "noble war" - even though he never, ever, expressed such pride. He was just grateful to get through the experience in one piece, and saw death come too early to his buddies that did not come back. I don't know if this is accurate, but of the millions of US soldiers that served in WW II, only about 800,000 actually experienced combat duty (in the European theatre). Why is Spielberg making this movie at this time? Perhaps because we are about to lose this generation, and he wants to remember something good and grand about America? I don't know if his movie accomplishes this. Maybe they should make a movie just of interviews of just infantrymen who have served in all the US wars. Just let them speak for themselves and let all these idiots in Congress listen. Maybe that would have some impact on them. Peace, Jason
[PEN-L:263] Re: rising rate of profit
Jim, Did you net out financial income from industrial profits ? For example, GMAC and GE finance provide significant income to GM and GE. Jason
[PEN-L:176] Re: Alan Wolfe
Doug, That STUPID F**K WOLFE!!! How's that? 1) He went after the Econ dept - big time. Forced Palley down our throats (I think unbeknownest to Tom); we wanted Randall Wray. 2) Tried - via Alice Amsden - to gut Marxian Economics courses. 3) Tried to get classes to start in early afternoon so working grad students couldn't take classes. 4) Manipulated enrollment numbers to make it appear that econ dept had suffered declines in a far greater proportion than other depts. Maybe Matt Forstater remembers other crap we took from that schmuck. By the way, Ed Nell told me that back in the 1960s Wolfe was a hardline Stalinist who would get pissed off at the group, and renounce everybody and then move on rightward! Wolfe is one guy that I'd like to take 100 slapshots at! Jason
[PEN-L:359] RE: spud-heads at work
I good friend of mine also butted heads with Baumol over a court case. Baumol was shilling for a major RR in NY who was trying to get out of paying taxes on their right-of-ways to school districts. By the way, Baumol considers himself to be very "sympathetic" to Marx! Jason
Publishing in URPE for Tenure
In a message dated 98-02-20 12:12:40 EST, you write: Some of the radicals want it both ways: doing heterodox topics and theories on the one hand, but for the usual objectives/imperatives of publish or perish, CV knotching and acceptability/getting published within the "mainstream" media, conferences and institutions of "respectability". Can somebody answer this question: When one goes up for tenure, do NCs (and PB committee members) regard URPE publications as "legitimate?" When I was at the New School, it was clear that faculty publications in URPE were not considered "valid." While Barkley makes several good points, I don't think keeping the "legitimacy" of URPE is really important. I think the real issue is that URPE does valid economics on its own terms and I would argue is one of the few economics organizations doing interesting economics. I think the more thoughtful NCs also recognize this. jason
Re: AEA cuts URPE and other heterodox sessions for 1999
In a message dated 98-02-19 12:48:00 EST, you write: The AEA Papers and Proceedings only print papers that are AEA sessions, not URPE or other groups. I think part of the agenda here is to squeeze other groups so that the AEA itself can have more sessions Barkley, Good point. The AEA PP always seem to be more interesting - partly because they occasionally allow non-mainsteamers to publish. Isn''t Nancy Folbre on the Exec Comm? Any other "friends" of URPE out there? This whole thing has been done in secret that I bet a lot of Post-K's and Institutuionalist folks would be pretty pissed off. Jason
Re: AEA cuts URPE and other heterodox sessions for 1999
Susan, Is there a way we can send an "electronic petition" to the folks at the AEA? There is also the point that though many of us don't attend the AEA meertings on a regular basis, we read the proceedings and program. How costly is it for them to keep up an "option demand" (Burton Weisbrod's idea about funding for National Parks). Jason Hecht
Re: The Ecological Inference Problem
In a message dated 98-02-18 01:51:14 EST, you write: Although many have attempted to make such cross-level inferences, scholars agree that all existing methods yield very inaccurate conclusions about the world. In this volume, Gary King lays out a unique --- and reliable --- solution to this venerable problem. I saw the same ad. Sounds like some sort of "interpolation algorithm" with a lot of neat assumptions. Jason
Re: FAIR-L: MR. ANCHORMAN, HAVE YOU EVER COMMITTED ADULTERY?
Folks, Here's another angle: The divorce rate in the US is around 50%. There is probably even odds that a marriage under stress probably has some component of infidelity occurring. So a 1/4 of all married adults (perhaps even a fair amount of newscasters) have something to "explain." BTW, how many actual individuals does this come out to: 5-15 million? Jason
Re: Geometric Mean the CPI
In a message dated 98-02-12 18:53:53 EST, you write: I was referring to an item from the BLS Daily Report that was looking forward to the use of a geometric mean index. I thought the use of the GM was to correct for the following: Apples go up from $1/lb to $2/lb and back to $1/lb. The way the BLS computes the price change is to average the two % changes, which if innumeracy serves me right, averages somewhere around 50% (100%+0%)/2? Please help me out on this one! Jason
Re: Not clear on the concept dept.
Tom, Any money to support any "social" program is litmus-tested: NO dollars shall ever be spent to help women obtain reproductive choice/freedom. Gingrich have virtually codified this into a template for all intn'l aid programs. Jason
Re: David Card
In a message dated 98-02-10 20:46:18 EST, you write: Why? Because he's Canadian? No, because he's from P-R-I-N-C-E-T-O-N I don't think we need to censor q's or a's. The seminars I've been at with "Big Cheese" NC's are often rough tumble. Finally: Will somebody clue me in on the voice recognition/OCR technology? Is it that pen-l messages become voice messages? Could I have some sort of filter where I can sound like Charlton Heston, Pew Wee Herman, or even, Paul Sweezy?! Jason Jason
Re: Santa Fe-Krugman-Arthur
In a message dated 98-02-05 13:56:57 EST, you write: like so much econometrics, with little power to clarify real human life? Oh no!!! I've been found out!! There goes my 401(k) money! J
Re: computers K-Stock
In a message dated 98-02-01 16:31:13 EST, you write: their overall contribution would still be minimal, given their small share of the overall capital stock I think the latest BEA figures show that a large protion of net capital formation (the flow of I) is coming from computers. The problem is that the stuff gets written down so quickly, however, that doesn't negate the fact that s/v can rise even if the offical accounting measures are crappy. jason
Re: gathering the news
Doug, Paul Simon lives down the block from me, but, last time I looked, no reporters were out there looking for all the lost money from Capeman! jason
Re: Santa Fe
Doug, I'm skeptical about the Santa Fe Institute. I think the Los Alamos "cloud of smartness" hangs over them. I know a recent doctoral student at the New School had a fellowship there. I'm sure their $'s are probably come from those that fund both MIT and Cal Tech. Jason
Doug's Really In Style @ the NYT!!!!!!!
HTMLFolks,BR BR I friend of mine called me up to tell me: "Did you read today's New York Times!? Doug Henwood was quoted!"BR BR Ohmygod! Has Pete Pasells been canned? Has Milt Freudenheim gone nuts? Has Doug Henwood SOLD OUT BIGTIME???BR BR Quick, I first scour the "Week In Review" section, No Doug quote!BR Then, onto the Bus-Section. Turn page, turn page, turn page, No Doug Quotes (Anywhere).BR Next, on to the City section, followed in the "Neighrborhood Section," god damn it! Not a single comment about Marx, Castro, or Doug.BR BR At last, I spy something on the front page of the style section: "Trading In Wicked Wit."BR Quickly, I scan all quotes, Finally I glimpse the word "classical" and "Freudian." Pay dirt:BR BR "These people (Wall Street traders) spend a lot of time on the phone with each other, which creates a culture of gossip," he said. "If you accept the classical Freudian analysis that making jokes is all about releasing tension, well, these are extremely aggressive people under a lot of stress, so its no surprise that their jokes are aggressive and hostile."BR BR "In any case racially and sexually insensitive messages [e-mail] seem to be on the decline, Dr. Dundes, Mr. Henwood and several Wall Streeters say.BR BR The presence of the fairer may have had an effect on some of the hormonal upsurges. "Women have filtered onto Wall Street in the last decade or two, so that's abated the Ireally nasty, sick jokes/I, Mr Henwood said [my emphasis]. But the rest of it continues to thrive."BR BR Well, now I'll surely encourage to get my 3 1/2 year old daughter to start thinking about taking that job with Morgan Stanley.BR BR Way to go Doug!!!BR BR Jason /HTML
Re: scale economies
In a message dated 97-11-15 22:49:56 EST, you write: There are virtually no industries in which a market share greater than 10% of the U.S. market is required to exhaust all scale economies--to reach the lowest (technologically) attainable cost per unit. Calculating "EOS's" is a real tricky business. In manufacturing it may be relatively "easy." One of the problem with services is how to measure "output." Moreover, most use NC concepts which assume smooth NC curves - Sraffa and others would have objected tothis form of the problem. Unfortunately, consulting (esp accounting) firms have been trying to rationalize all of American industry according to MC cost theory. For example, hospitals have contracted with accounting firms to estimate EOS; however, allocating "overhead" (e.g. radiology) to an appropriate "product line" (e.g. obstetrics) is a major nightmare. Is anyone selling Oxford short? Jason
Anyone Know Ed Herman's E-Mail Address
Folks, Does Ed Herman have an e-mail address? Jason
Chile's UNDERFUNDED Social Security System
Folks, The former chief actuay of our Social Security Administration, Robert Myers points out in the latest issue of "Contingencies" (an actuarial trade publication) that Chile's SS system is in deep actuarial do-do: Their vaunted "Personal Savings Account System" supposedly avoids unfunded liabilities because a worker only gets a return only on what they contribute. However, the system is way underfunded because of 1) it grants prior-service credits (i.e. credit before there was a private ss system), and 2) grants a mi nimum pension guarantee of 85% of the legal minimum wage for those under 70 and a 90% benefit for those over. Privatized, yeah once they realize that this program represents a "mammoth unfunded liability," they'll really need to privatize!! Bottom line: While Pinochet's Chicago boys "won the war", the old dictator had to throw a healthy dose of collectivized $'s to make it "work." Jason
Teaching Finance Courses
Folks, Any Pen-L's teaching Managerial Finance out there? I have a slim chance for a tenured-track teaching finance at a small b-school (731 letters and 4 years, holy cow! my first (and only?) interview!! Is there a "progressive" text out there (besides Doug's "Wall Street" - which will only be required reading for Harvard MBA's)? Should I keep my day job as an econometrics hack or go teach finance if I make the cut? All advice is appreciated. Jason
Re: FastTrack - LatAm view
Doug, If it's not too late: Wil Milberg or Lance Taylor jason
Re: getting kicked of pen-l
Mike, I think this has happened 3 times since I began with Pen-l in 19992(?) jason
Re: effective protection
Jim, Noam Chomsky has made this point in Z and elsewhere. He believes that NAFTA is likely to subvert the economies of the South the USs Jason
Re: Krugman, again
In a message dated 97-11-05 12:11:21 EST, you write: The profs. at Big Schools (BS) and their minions see anything that was written more than five years ago as irrelevant or prima facie wrong, especially if the old research didn't use clever models that apply fashionable techniques. Instead, the point is to develop such models. This is also true in biology: "whole animal" biologists are looked down upon by molecular people. Interestingly, the molecular people are oftentimes just confirming "old time" research findings. Jim - did you ever check out Barro's "Getting It Right? He states p. 6: "When political freedom rises above a certain level - corresponding roughly in the empirical analysis to the situation of Mexico or taiwan in 1994 - then further expansions of democracy create great pressure for social programs that redistribute wealth. These programs dilute incentives for investment and work effort and are therefore adverse for growth(!)" Haven't the "Asian Tigers" pursued state-led investment policies? For example, didn't South Korea pursue ship building at the "wrong" time when there was worldwide overcapacity (in the mid-1970s?) BTW they're at it again for electronics and other high tech areas! Jason
Re: dead girls in China--comment
In a message dated 97-11-05 01:35:48 EST, you write: 4. The 'non-reporting' does not hold water, especially since the ratio of boys as a majority over girls widens with age AND, there's just all those pesky little corpses. Excellent point Amen. This whole business is psychopathic and frightening! For those of us with young daughters (born exactly during this period) it is profoundly sad and tragic. Sure "every dad wants a son," but that's not the way reproduction works! All the X-Y combinations are due to the male! Finally, having assisted in the birth of both of my children - it is beyond me to understand how a parent could their kids. Without being sappy or sentimental, the plain fact is that you've got to have a total absence of humanity to carry this out. There is something profoundly wrong in China!! Jason
A Rising Profit Rate?
In a message dated 97-10-20 11:06:02 EDT, you write: Work at EPI by Dean Baker and Larry Mishel is counter-evidence; it finds profit rates have risen and are at record highs. (See our 'profits' briefs on our web site). "Business Economics" also had an article with the same conclusion. Weather the recent data are only a "short cycle" (1986-1995) around the long-term decline (1945-1985) remains to be seen. jason
Re: Phil Gramm on SS
In a message dated 97-10-22 12:37:59 EDT, you write: The Chilean system devotes about 30% of it revenues to administrative overhead - brokerage fees, recordkeeping, and marketing by the approved mutual funds. Moreover, Medicare and Medicaid administrative expenses/premium ratios are also much, much lower than commercial medical HMO insurers. The dirty secret is that publicly provided insurance is much cheaper to produce than private sector insurance. Jason
Disgruntled Grad Students
In a message dated 97-10-16 20:40:23 EDT, you write: Yep, I got tired of the same all-too-easy and all-too-predictable dismissal of the old guy as having been right about so-and-so but, as we now know from the superior vantage point of economic theory in this advanced age, wrong about these other, let's face it, far more important matters. Here's 2 true stories from the 60's and 70's: When Ross Thomson was taking his Ph.D. at Yale in the early 70's, he told me how profs wouldn't use the word "capitalism" in class. Anwar Shaikh also related a story how when he was taking micro with Gary Becker at Columbia, Becker was catching a lot of flak from the grad students. Finally, at one point Becker suggested that while micro theory might not be useful for understanding "actually existing" capitalism, perfect competition would likely approximate the system under communism! (see that the 60's did to people!) Jason
[PEN-L:12705] Re: Privatizing Pensions
In a message dated 97-09-30 10:49:04 EDT, you write: 1) What are the arguments against stock market funding of basic social security pensions? Volatility of returns. From 1975 to June 1997, the SP 500 had a 5.9% avg annual return. Gov't bonds were a better deal. Of course all this depends on when you get in and get out. The bulk of a life insurer's reserves are in bonds because they are the best instruments for liability matching: while the equity markets offer the possibility of greater returns, they introduce too much uncertainity (as opposed to risk) into the pricing side of things. 2 What was Keynes' objection to funding pension plans as opposed to 'pay-as-you-go' funding? As the former pres of a life insurance company, I believe Keynes objected to pay as you because it violated the "actuarial funding" principle. The basic idea is that the reserves need to accumulate over time to match the expected liability. If the gov't fully funds the pension at a single rate, then the reserves have to built up over time to reflect the average risk of the pool. In the US, the program began in 1935 and the first retirees began to draw benefits beginning in 1941 or 1942. 3 What is the downside of the Chilean pension privatization?
[PEN-L:12685] Re: Is Understanding Capitalism still in print?
Folks, Sorry to repeat: Addison-Wesley has discontinued publishing "Understanding Kism!" Anyone know who is picking it up? jason
[PEN-L:12643] Is Understanding Capitalism still in print?
Folks, Does anyone know who is publishing Bowles Edwards "Understanding Capitalism?" Thanks, Jason
[PEN-L:12503] Re: Job security is in the eyes of the beholder
Folks, Let me echo everything in the prior posting. Business economists have also met the ranks of the underemployed. Check out the New York Times Business section on 9/18: "Brother Can You Spare A Dime for a Boom-Era Economist?" At the annual convention of the National Assoc of Business Economists, the most widely attended sessions were the ones on "Successful Job Switching," "Networking" and "Building A Consulting Practice." Now let's see how efficient labor markets really work. Jason Hecht
[PEN-L:12504] Re: Just how does Wall Street rule?
For financial corporations - especially insurance companies - where the equity portfolio is a significant share of its capital base, movements in the financial markets directly affects its operational capacity. For example, Allstate's ability to underwrite new risks is measured by its premiums/surplus (i.e. owners equity=assets-liabilities). For insurers, surplus is also directly affected by unrealized capital gains/losses. For those who recall the Crash of 74/75, several insurance companies - like Warren Buffets GEICO - were technically insolvent. However, after Volcker et. al. fixed all that, some insurers (eventually) became quite the darling of Wall Street. Increasingly, GE, GM, and other "manufacturing/industrial" concerns earn most of their profits from financial operations that are subject to the same types of risks/rewards of banks and insurers. Perhaps kism's largest corps are operating under laws that Marx/Hilferding claimed would govern the "highest stage:" i.e. the logic and laws of financial capital would organize/dominate productive capital. Jason
[PEN-L:12479] Re: happy American toilers
Lies! Lies! Sample Bias! I'd like to know the breakdown by age, income, etc. Every year they do surveys of all the employees at my workplace, and: a) the people making good salaries are "satisfied" and b) everyone else is not! I have a strong suspicion that whatever the WSJ says, there sample is probably highly skewed toward "symbol manipulators." BTW - who publishes Bowles Edwards "Understanding Capitalism." It seems that Harper Collins dropped it. Jason
[PEN-L:12270] Re: Comp.Econ.Sys. course bibliography
The Economic History Association has a great web site with compilations of course outlines. Jason
[PEN-L:12254] Re: New Democrat got her ass kicked
In a message dated 97-09-10 15:15:14 EDT, you write: Sharpton quickly pointed out that no one has ever asked Rudy about the narrowness of *his* base, emphasizing that he got more white votes than Rudy did black votes. Messinger couldn't make a point that sharp if her life depended on it. Words can't describe what an embarrassment her campaign was, and no doubt will be when she wins the runoff and faces Il Duce in November. Doug That's why I sat out yesterday's joke. Why does El Salvador have a more progressive election system than NYC's?. Chomsky's certainly right about the "consensus of politics" here on the Upper Left Side. Jason
[PEN-L:11575] Re: time to sell...maybe, but: FROP or not?
Jim, Abbey J Cohen (Goldman's Stock Guru) justifies these differentials by noting that the pre-tax profits of the SP 500 have increased at an annual average compound growth rate of +20% from 1991 through 1997:1. Read' em and weep jason
[PEN-L:11574] Re: Info request re new tax accord
In a message dated 97-07-31 04:48:25 EDT, you write: 1) What percentage of new investment in productive capacity is financed by retained earnings? I think Doug claims between 80-90% What percentage is financed by borrowing from financial institutions? What percentage is financed by assets held in existing pension funds? 2) Is there a segment of such investment--e.g. "venture capital"--that is particularly dependent on private purchases of financial instruments? How much so? High Tech, (Legal) Drugs, Some Business Services - probably less than 10% of total capital formation 3) What percentage of realized capital gains come from assets which do not represent new investments in productive capacity, e.g. previously issued equity? What do you mean? New investment in PPE should first boost operating income, realized cap gains usually come later except in financial services (e.g. insurance) most operating profits come from realized capital gains. 4) Is there any significant (new) evidence on the beneficial economic effects of cutting the capital gains tax? Paul Craig Roberts seems to think there is, but, well, consider the source. Doug? Max? Anyone? Thanks in advance for any help. In solidarity, Gil Skillman PS--I'd be happy to post a copy of the final draft to anyone who would like to use it as a template for their own communication. Gil, My congressperson - Jerry Nadler - voted against it because he couldn't read the 2500 page document in one night. That's what "democracy" has evolved to: Lott, Gingrich and Billy Boy decide what they want and then give it to us! Jason
[PEN-L:11439] Re: Male Chauvanist Math
In a message dated 97-07-24 02:01:53 EDT, you write: 1. Marx tended to minimize concerns for the immediate adverse impact of capitalism on women and children because he focused on what he believed to be the inherent impact of capitalism dynamics in the long run on their situatio Bob, Read the stuff on the working day - hardly a concern with LR dynamics! Also, my sister was a math major at Queens College in the early 1970's. On the first day of a Differential Calculus class, the prof turned to my sister (and the 3 other female students) and said, "what are you doing here? your never going to need this stuff while your raising your kids!!" More to the point: The use of econometrics in is to emphasize central tendencies and often long run tendencies. This "makes sense" if one can ignore the immediate situation or the deviations from the central tendencies. I work for an insurance company and do econometric forecasting/research. I don't consider myself an "econometrician" but I know how to use the tools. The strenghts of econometrics are also its weaknesses (which neither radicals nor NCs nor others who use the stuff pay attention to): its a flexible set of tools that are capable of giving "soft" and "hard" results. For example, when I want to establish "credibility" in a rate trend, I can use a host of techniques. The point is that math, stats, and other quant techniques are systems of knowledge that are made to be manipulated (but also need to be understood). Unfortunately, I'm not paid to be concerned with "long run central tendencies," rather I need to get a short run projection for a defined objective. Finally, I object to the characterization of my wife as the "Willie Mays" of hospital accounting: Mays had to endure overt racisim from a crowd of people that was in his face everyday. My wife's situation - while difficult - was no where near as traumatic (even though in the beginning of her career she regularly worked 80 hour weeks) Jason
[PEN-L:11414] Re: Male Chauvanist Mathematics
Good Folks, I've been reading these missives, while observing my younger daughter who just turned 1. I watch her play with a truck and then cuddle her doll. I don't know where she learned to do either, but it probably comes from external and internal influences. Now on the other hand, her mother is a CPA and runs an accounting dept in a large hospital. A lot of males (from Goldman Sachs to the CFO and other bigs) absolutley depend upon her analytical prowess to keep the hospital solvent (no small feat in these days of madness). In fact, my wife got into hospital accounting because at the time (early 1980s) it wasn't considered "glamorous" (by accountants, of all people!). The point is that when the guys screwed up the audits they had to "call in the women" to get the job done right. In fact, it was quite evident that the hospital practice at this particular Big 6 succeeded because the women supplanted the incompetent males! (Maggie will concur on this for NYNEX). My wife never expects to be treated differently, however, she also knows that sexisim is a fact of the workplace. Fortunately, the people above her (males) recognize her talents and try to let her do her job - a situation that most women don't have. Success is contingent upon a ton of factors (including hormones and sexism, etc), however, as Steve Gould points out, human's have an incredible capacity to adapt. Basically, in the workplace,it comes down to letting people do their job, and hopefully, recognizingthat everybody's got peeves and prejudices. The key thing is to recognize that "none are without sin" and to learn to keep your attitudes in check, if you can't change 'em. Jason
[PEN-L:11310] Re: China's Overcapacity
What's the big deal? The real questions are: how competitive are China's mass-produced goods (e.g. quality) and what sort of export-earnings are associated with those goods. "Made In Japan" used to be a signal of poor quality, now its the standard in certain types of so-called high value-added goods. On the other hand, the UK in the 19th C was a "leader" in manufactured goods and look what happended vis-a-vis the US. I'm not sure economists have a "full story" to tell about China. Jason
[PEN-L:11255] re: Montgomery Ward bounces severence checks
Jim, What did your grandad do to get axed by the infamous SLA? Jason
[PEN-L:11256] Re: Henwood - Middle Aged?
Not so Doug Henwood, the middle-aged publisher of the Left Business Observer newsletter, and the host of a show on geo-politics on WBAI, a New York leftist radio station. God, do I feel old Henwood has written Wall Street, a book that amply illustrates his nasty ad hominem streak and overweening intellectual arrogance. Both characteristics were also central elements in Karl Marx's personality. We all dream of sucj complements!!! One wonders whether Henwood acquired his repellent style through natural aptitude or exaggerated hero worship. I'd say the former !!! Whatever the reason, Wall Street is predictable Henwood, with Marxist analysis of the U.S. capital markets. What is Paul nuts! Obviously, he didn't read the book or is not capable of writing the following six letters: K-E-Y-N-E-S Henwood's substantive complaints about aggregate financial-transaction expense, excessive turnover, asset-pricing models and leveraged buyouts echo longstanding critiques by, among others, Louis Lowenstein of Columbia University and Warren Buffett. Yeah, but those guys never appeared on WBAI!!! Then we're off on a lengthy trek debunking current theories of finance, during which Henwood really bogs down in the fever swamps of lengthy paeans to Marx's visionary genius, magisterial corrections of other Marxist economists, plus occasional odd digressions, such as bashing Rudolf Hilferding, a Social Democratic finance minister during the Weimar Republic. What! A kind word for a Hilferding! Is he nuts! Does poor Pauley realize that Rudy was a Marxist (who was also killed by the Gestapo). Despite 300-plus pages of excoriation, Henwood's disdain for capitalism remains unconvincing. His criticism of American society as atomistic is ironic, given the civic void exposed in socialist states when their totalitarian systems collapse. In addition, while Henwood is at his best and most provocative doing street theater on the cost, waste and pretensions of American financial markets, someone in the U.S. must be doing something right. Hello Paul (anyone home???) Yeah, they are called "Retained Earnings" amd "Depreciation" which Doug goes to great lenghts to point out are the primary sources of capitalist investment The U.S. saves 5%-10% less of GDP than other developed countries. Yet starting from the world's highest standard of living, America maintained broadly comparable economic growth despite a lower savings effort. Perhaps the U.S. capital markets, whose aggregate costs are under 1% of GDP, contribute to that success. What a stupid comparision!! Hey Doug, I think this was a pretty good "Review" for a guy who just tanked! Jason
[PEN-L:11051] Re: Morgan Stanley on class war
Doug, Send'em to me! Thanks Jason
[PEN-L:10956] Marx Consumerism
Am I stuck in "Volume I" or did that old "naughty man" (as my 3-year old daughter Sarah tells me as she looks at the Dancing Marx's on my URPE t-shirt) say something about the real wage being "socially and historically" determined? Is it not obvious that the real wage would have to cover all the necessities to reproduce labor. In the US the social (non-existent) infrastructure shifts the burden on individuals (e.g., must have a car to get to work). Part of the problem is what Maggie and Doug have suggested: 1) why do you need a "big" car (8 mpg) when a "small" car will suffuce?; 2) you're not a "real person" until you move up from a Toyota Tercel to a etc. Consumerism is ingrained in our culture, much thanks to the socioeconomic forces. Are Americans ready to take on the values of Henry David T as opposed to Lester (MI)T? Marx had some interesting things to say about this; Chomsky has also alluded to the effects of advertising/corp propoganda, etc. When one is spending 70, 80, 90 hrs per week working overtime to earn $100,000, what's happening at home? Who's talking/reading to the kids? How fast are you going to "depreciate" your body/mind so that your time value of money approaches infinity (as you approach death)? jason
[PEN-L:10817] Re: D'Souza Can Kiss My Brown Ass
In a message dated 97-06-13 05:00:47 EDT, [EMAIL PROTECTED] (rakesh bhandari) writes: The real puzzle remains the black culture of overachievement. Rakesh Let me "second that emotion!" I have three friends (in economics) whose publication/teaching/service records were objectively better than their white "peers" - all three were denied tenure (at private colleges). I work for an insurance organization (in the actuarial division) and, they just hired their first African-American actuarial student! The Journal of Blacks in Higher Education has been publishing data on the "overachievement" problem. Jason H
[PEN-L:10701] Re: What's driving the unemployment rate?
Doug, Rudy G in a speech to the National Press Club (NPR broadcast on 6/1/97, 8 pm WNYC) claimed that the Unemployment Rate was declining because ex-welfare recipients were entering the workforce. I suspect that people on welfare are not included in the Census HH survey (probably due to lack of a phone). Has anyone checked this out. Jason
[PEN-L:10577] Re: Explaining It
In a message dated 97-06-05 16:20:59 EDT, you write: "To reinvigorate the grass roots requires explaining to people the world as it is and as it might be. That's what radical intellectuals are supposed to do, but we're not doing much of it." Doug, Haven't Americans become so disaffected/distrustful of all intellectuals trying to "explain it to the people." Was it not Mark Twain who said: "An 'expert' is someone from out of town." Nevertheless, Pat Buchanan has clearly shown that pissed off people are ready to listen Finally, everybody go out and buy Doug's book! Now! (before I start an ugly rumour that "Wall Street Week" is going to have him face off against Alan Greenspan and Henry Kaufman). Jason
[PEN-L:10410] Re: Fwd: scary politics
Maggie, Next up: The Dream Police ! Jason
[PEN-L:10308] Louis Uchitelle: How to Make A Stupid Presentation !!!!!!
Folks, the New York Times just hit yet another new low for stupidity!
The lead article in the Business Section shows real wages rising in the first
quarter which Louis ("I-Have-No-Understanding-Of-Graphics") Uchitelle cites
as evidence of rising wage (and thus) price inflation!
Hello Louis!!! Anybody Home Where's Charles Murray to check your SAT and
IQ scores!!!
Listen Lou, its pretty simple (now stick with me):
IF A SEQUENCE OF GROWTH RATES IS NEGATIVE FOR MOST OF THE LAST 10 QUARTERS,
THEN IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE LEVEL TO BE HIGHER IN THE CURRENT QUARTER
UNLESS THE CURRENT GROWTH RATE IS GREATER THAN THE COMPOUND CUMULATIVE
CHANGE!!
Excuse my irateness, but I use the NYTs in class (I even use most of Uncle
Louees stuff - he's a good FDR Keynesian - on a good day)
Read em' and weep!!!
Jason
PS Can someone tell me how to get on pen-l; the Anthrax server claims on
already subscribed!!!
[PEN-L:8826] Back against the wall CAPM!: Doug's CAPEX Other Verities
Doug, In your latest LBO, you note that businesses' internal funds reached 109% of fixed capital, yet firm's still borrow an average of 32% of "capex" and rely little on stocks to finance expansion of plant and equipment. My question is: what does the 32% of borrowing represent? Is it a "mix" problem, ie. utilities use long-term debt but GM and GE do not? Also, stock analysts like Ed Yardeni Abbey Cohen claim that we are entering a "new era" where traditional stock measures (e.g. PE ratios) are no longer meaningful. On the other hand people at Leuthold research claim that the stock market is way over-valued. For example, no one is paying attention to the trend in oil prices. Any comments? Jason H P.S. For those teaching intro economics, check out Doug's latest issue of LBO - he provides a very clear explanation/debunking of the claim that the stock market is a valuable financial intermediary for the "real" economy.
[PEN-L:8664] Re: Your gender or culture determines your opinions
In a message dated 97-02-16 16:47:03 EST, you write: In a message dated 97-02-15 09:06:43 EST, you write: man hours sigh. they just don't get it. maggie coleman [EMAIL PROTECTED] Maggie, Did I write this? I hope not - I have to pay thrice in my household for such words!! How are things going? I have FREE tkst to "TGI Fridays" (includes meal, tip tax but NO drink) Do you want to meet Friday for lunch at one their locations? They expire on Friday 2/28/97 Call me, maybe we can John in on a lunch tooo (212-799-6377) Jason
[PEN-L:8608] Misunderstanding Marx (Again)
In a message dated 97-02-05 13:00:53 EST, [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Laurence Shute) writes: "Karl Marx argued that capitalism needs a 'reserve army' of unemployed labor to restrain wage demands and safeguard profits. Most economic policy makers still think the same way, but recent experience in the U.S. and Britain suggests the army might need fewer troops than it used to." A propos of the above and how utterly misunderstood the "Black Moor" is: Randall Forsyth writing in this week's Barron's that the current labor force participation rate of 67.2% is a cyclical peak. He claims that tight labor markets are attracting new entrants: "So this supply-side response may be halping to keep inflation in check. Thats the inverse of the conventional wisdom that adheres to Karl Marx's thesis that capitalism requires an army of unemployed to hold down inflation. I suppose the need to restrain wage demands above a "subsistence" is on Greenspan's list of things ro do. However, I doubt that the "conventional wisdom" ever made any policyconnection to Marx. Moreover, Marx's theory of inflation was not very developed and was usually in the context of his discussion of money, not labor markets. jason H
[PEN-L:8435] Re: job insecurity
Jim (and everybody else) Given the level (and growth) in job insecurity, why are we in a state of paralysis? I think a great deal has to do with the harnessing of the ideology/media by corp's - who have been able to keep this issue off the political landscape. Moroever, a significant plurality of the voting public probably believes that tenure (in any form) has lost its legitimacy. Jason
[PEN-L:8385] Re: comp vs OT
Doug, Perhaps the longstanding desire to kill OT is because in steel, tires, and other "measurably productive" sectors, time-and-a-half pay was used (by labor) to get at the surplus value. Capital has had a somewhat more difficult time "rationalizing" nursing, sales, and other service occupations that tend to have a greater %age of female workers. Nevertheless, it is happening with a vengence - especially in nursing where night-differentials and other perks are being taken away. In the ins company I work for, the workweek was increased from 35 to 37 1/2 hours, which is equivalent to about 23 days or about 7% more labor time. While comp time might appear to be more "family" oriented, the basic problem is that raising children is a totally path-dependent affair: you can't get back the time with your kids, even if they give you two days off for working an 18-hour shift. This issue hasn't been addressed by the WSJ crowd. Jason
[PEN-L:8386] Re: current events: increased job insecurity?
Is there anyone out there who isn't insecure about their job? Tenured faculty? C'mon, U/Minn Law School profs (that hotbed of radicalism) are trying to hang together. A day doesn't go by where my wife and I don't talk about the possibilty of getting axed. Anyone notice "retirement" announcements on their e-mail of people who have put in many years but aren't quite at the "right age." Maybe all us boomers are experiencing what our grandparents and great-gpts went through during most of their working lives. Jason H
[PEN-L:8355] The End of the Business Cycle/The End of Oligopolies Ideology
Has anyone noticed the proliferation of "offical pronouncements" of the end of the business cycle? DRI and WEFA have both noted that the "steady growth" of the 1980s and 1990s reflects a new "golden era" of the 3-3-3 rule: 3% inflation, 3% growth, 3pm golf tee-off! In the latest Barron's (1/27/97) Gene Epstein (OK Doug, so what if the guy has to fill his weekly comments with quotes, he's trying) summarizes a report by two Golman Sachs economists. Basically, they argue that inventory cycles are a thing of the past because of "just in time" inventory, capital, and WORKERS! Secondly, the end of oligopolies has brought about lower inflation because firms will not hoard labor when labor markets "get tight." Companies now take precautions in their management of labor by "imposing longer workweeks and hiring temporary workers." Other factors include global competition and deregulation that have all helped to improve aggregate productivity and growth. I'm surprised that Gene bought this line - given his New Deal proclivities - but alas maybe he's seen the light. On a totally unrelated matter: can anyone offer a reading or two on the "Economics of Mental Health." I am teaching an introductory course in economics with a number of students who are getting BA's in social work. They have a good sense of the horrible transformation of the mental health care system (e.g. using cheaper medications for their clients while raising the ratio of patients/staff. Any well-written/intro-level pieces who be appreciated. Jason H
