Re: Interesting Wall Street Journal stories
Sabri asked, By the way, I guess, we are dealing with a neither observable nor verifiable claim, which is the most difficult problem in contract theory. Does anyone know how to deal with unobservable, unverifiable claims, by the way? 1) repeat said claim until others are convinced and it becomes a constituent part of their being, and let them (and yourself) bring the claim to its realization 2) if that doesn't work, you can make a state, turn the claim into a self- evident truth, and let the cops handle it Cheers, Jonathan - This mail sent through IMP: http://horde.org/imp/
Re: Interesting Wall Street Journal stories
in-between, become head of your academic department and deny tenure to those who don't believe. Or run a major journal or a major academic association and then declare that only those who believe are good or true economists and deserve to be published/tenured/rewarded. Jim -Original Message- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Sat 1/24/2004 2:56 AM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Cc: Subject: Re: [PEN-L] Interesting Wall Street Journal stories Sabri asked, By the way, I guess, we are dealing with a neither observable nor verifiable claim, which is the most difficult problem in contract theory. Does anyone know how to deal with unobservable, unverifiable claims, by the way? 1) repeat said claim until others are convinced and it becomes a constituent part of their being, and let them (and yourself) bring the claim to its realization 2) if that doesn't work, you can make a state, turn the claim into a self- evident truth, and let the cops handle it Cheers, Jonathan - This mail sent through IMP: http://horde.org/imp/
Re: Interesting Wall Street Journal stories
If it involves claims about WMD you change the claim to plans for WMD and voila they become verifiable sort of...' Cheers, Ken Hanly - Original Message - From: Sabri Oncu [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Friday, January 23, 2004 7:21 PM Subject: Re: Interesting Wall Street Journal stories By the way, I guess, we are dealing with a neither observable nor verifiable claim, which is the most difficult problem in contract theory. Does anyone know how to deal with unobservable, unverifiable claims, by the way? Best, Sabri
Re: Interesting Wall Street Journal stories
I only have talked with Stiglitz briefly so I cannot claim to have any deep insight into his behavior patterns, but I cannot imagine him behaving like the academic in question. Eubulides wrote: [But property cycles have been abolished!] [The two economists in the third paragraph seem to be Larry Summers and Joe Stiglitz or Laura D'Andrea Tyson] http://www.weforum.org/site/homepublic.nsf/Content/Annual+Meeting+2004%5CList+of+Selected+Participants -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University michael at ecst.csuchico.edu Chico, CA 95929 530-898-5321 fax 530-898-5901
Re: Interesting Wall Street Journal stories
I think Stiggy was at the WSF, not Davos. - Doug michael wrote: I only have talked with Stiglitz briefly so I cannot claim to have any deep insight into his behavior patterns, but I cannot imagine him behaving like the academic in question. Eubulides wrote: [But property cycles have been abolished!] [The two economists in the third paragraph seem to be Larry Summers and Joe Stiglitz or Laura D'Andrea Tyson] http://www.weforum.org/site/homepublic.nsf/Content/Annual+Meeting+2004%5CList+of+Selected+Participants -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University michael at ecst.csuchico.edu Chico, CA 95929 530-898-5321 fax 530-898-5901
Re: Interesting Wall Street Journal stories
Yes, that's what I heard too. Ahmet I think Stiggy was at the WSF, not Davos. - Doug michael wrote: I only have talked with Stiglitz briefly so I cannot claim to have any deep insight into his behavior patterns, but I cannot imagine him behaving like the academic in question. Eubulides wrote: [But property cycles have been abolished!] [The two economists in the third paragraph seem to be Larry Summers and Joe Stiglitz or Laura D'Andrea Tyson] http://www.weforum.org/site/homepublic.nsf/Content/Annual+Meeting+2004%5CList+of+Selected+Participants -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University michael at ecst.csuchico.edu Chico, CA 95929 530-898-5321 fax 530-898-5901
Re: Interesting Wall Street Journal stories
The site Ian gave listed Stiglitz at Davos. He may be double dipping. On Sat, Jan 24, 2004 at 01:07:12PM -0500, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Yes, that's what I heard too. Ahmet I think Stiggy was at the WSF, not Davos. - Doug michael wrote: I only have talked with Stiglitz briefly so I cannot claim to have any deep insight into his behavior patterns, but I cannot imagine him behaving like the academic in question. Eubulides wrote: [But property cycles have been abolished!] [The two economists in the third paragraph seem to be Larry Summers and Joe Stiglitz or Laura D'Andrea Tyson] http://www.weforum.org/site/homepublic.nsf/Content/Annual+Meeting+2004%5CList+of+Selected+Participants -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University michael at ecst.csuchico.edu Chico, CA 95929 530-898-5321 fax 530-898-5901 -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu
Re: Interesting Wall Street Journal stories
Siglitz was also at the parallel session in Jawaharlal Nehru Univ in Delhi. See IDEAS websisite. anthony xxx Anthony P. D'Costa, Associate Professor Comparative International Development University of WashingtonCampus Box 358436 1900 Commerce Street Tacoma, WA 98402, USA Phone: (253) 692-4462 Fax : (253) 692-5718 xxx On Sat, 24 Jan 2004, Doug Henwood wrote: I think Stiggy was at the WSF, not Davos. - Doug michael wrote: I only have talked with Stiglitz briefly so I cannot claim to have any deep insight into his behavior patterns, but I cannot imagine him behaving like the academic in question. Eubulides wrote: [But property cycles have been abolished!] [The two economists in the third paragraph seem to be Larry Summers and Joe Stiglitz or Laura D'Andrea Tyson] http://www.weforum.org/site/homepublic.nsf/Content/Annual+Meeting+2004%5CList+of+Selected+Participants -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University michael at ecst.csuchico.edu Chico, CA 95929 530-898-5321 fax 530-898-5901
Re: Interesting Wall Street Journal stories
Does anyone know how to deal with unobservable, unverifiable claims, by the way? Look away and don't cop to it. -- -- Purge the White House of mad cowboy disease. -- END OF THE TRAIL SALOON Alternate Sundays 6-8am GMT (10pm-midnight PDT) http://www.kvmr.org I uke, therefore I am. -- Cool Hand Uke I log on, therefore I seem to be. -- Rodd Gnawkin Visit Cool Hand Uke's Lava Tube: http://www.oro.net/~dscanlan
Interesting Wall Street Journal stories
The Wednesday Wall Street Journal was particularly interesting. The front-page had an article about the massive vacancies in office buildings. Supposedly, a potential crisis has been averted because, among other things, landlords have been more successful in the locking-in tenants and because the developers are no longer depending on the banks, so can negotiate lower rents. These explanations leave something to be desired. Another story describes the growing gap between high wage and low-wage workers. A third describes two employees of Halliburton who seemed to be the ones that got the company locked into its unfortunate contract for getting fuel from Kuwait. Page two since then newly discovered oil and natural gas reserves are rapidly falling. Exploration costs are exceeding the value of newly discovered reserves. Next to this article is the story about the rise in steel prices. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University michael at ecst.csuchico.edu Chico, CA 95929 530-898-5321 fax 530-898-5901
Re: Interesting Wall Street Journal stories
- Original Message - From: michael [EMAIL PROTECTED] The Wednesday Wall Street Journal was particularly interesting. The front-page had an article about the massive vacancies in office buildings. Supposedly, a potential crisis has been averted because, among other things, landlords have been more successful in the locking-in tenants and because the developers are no longer depending on the banks, so can negotiate lower rents. These explanations leave something to be desired. === [But property cycles have been abolished!] [The two economists in the third paragraph seem to be Larry Summers and Joe Stiglitz or Laura D'Andrea Tyson] http://www.weforum.org/site/homepublic.nsf/Content/Annual+Meeting+2004%5CList+of+Selected+Participants [Stephen Roach, today] http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html The Davos crowd embraced the notion that US-centric global growth was sustainable indefinitely. Drawing support from recent pronouncements by Alan Greenspan, the related view was expressed that there would be no problem in financing the extraordinary external imbalances that were spawned by such lopsided global growth (see Greenspan's January 13, 2004 remarks before the Bundesbank Lecture 2004 in Berlin). As he did at the end of the equity bubble, Greenspan seems to be making a special effort to portray old concerns in a new light. Last time, it was a productivity breakthrough; this time, it's the nimble financing of a new globalization. The Davos consensus was quick to agree. With the entire world perceived to be on a de facto dollar standard, America's rapid build-up of external dollar-denominated debt was not perceived to be a problem. After all, Asia is funding the bulk of the new increments to that debt, and most were utterly convinced that nothing could break the daisy chain. As long as America continued to buy Asian-made products, Asian investors would continue to buy American-made bonds - thereby avoiding the lethal back-up in real interest rates that such imbalances would normally spawn. One participant characterized this arrangement as a massive Asian export subsidy program. Another cited the artificially depressed US interest rates that fall out of this arrangement as a foreign subsidy to the spendthrift American consumer. Either way, no one could conceive of any circumstances that would cause Asian investors - private or official - to change their mind on the funding of America's massive external imbalance. And so the Davos crowd believes the music will continue to play on. Quite honestly, none of this really surprised me - these are precisely the assumptions that ever-frothy financial markets must be making in order to sustain asset values at current levels. If imbalances were perceived to be the problem I suspect they are, markets would be in a very different place. As predictable as this response was, I was totally unprepared for what hit me immediately after the conclusion of this opening session. Two of America's leading academics rushed the stage - one a renowned economics professor and the other the president of a top university - and loudly proclaimed that the traditional macro of saving shortages and current-account deficits is a scam. America was not in any danger whatsoever, they argued vociferously. The imbalances that I worried about are simply the logical and entirely rational manifestations of a New Economy. Seems to me I had heard that one before. But I held my tongue and pressed for more. The New Paradigm in this case is that America has now become an asset-based, wealth driven economy. As such, it need not worry about scaling its imbalances by national income - instead they need to be judged against economy-wide net worth. On that basis, debt loads - either internal or external - can hardly be characterized as worrisome when measured against the elevated wealth of the US economy. Sure, that wealth took a bit of a hit when the equity bubble popped in 2000. But the baton of the US wealth creation machine was quickly passed on to property markets, and the US economy never even skipped a beat. This argument bears serious consideration, but I am convinced it is wrong. For starters, it makes the critical presumption that asset appreciation is permanent. When I pressed this point with my adversary, he bristled in response, claiming that permanently rapid rates of financial asset appreciation were entirely justified by the productivity breakthroughs of recent years. He went on to add that property cycles had all but been abolished - that the American home was a lasting store of ever-rising value. Needless to say, if that's the case, then I'm the one who's dead wrong. Ever-rising asset values would then qualify as permanent sources of saving - obviating the need for consumers to rely on traditional income-based saving strategies. Quite frankly, I couldn't believe what I was hearing.[snip]
Re: Interesting Wall Street Journal stories
Ian: The two economists in the third paragraph seem to be Larry Summers and Joe Stiglitz or Laura D'Andrea Tyson Hey! I know Laura! I met her a few times. Such an attractive woman, although, at times, I got bored during her speeches. She was much better than the previuos Haas Dean, though. They were equally boring to listen to but, at least, she was better looking than the previous one, for a heterosexual man, that is. Don't tell my wife what I thought about Laura, please. Well! This shows how seriously I take economists I suppose. Ian, I resent! I gave the right answer to your quizz but still did not get any prize. Should I contact my intellectual property lawyer to sue this Leijonhufvud? Best, Sabri
Re: Interesting Wall Street Journal stories
- Original Message - From: Sabri Oncu [EMAIL PROTECTED] Ian, I resent! I gave the right answer to your quizz but still did not get any prize. Should I contact my intellectual property lawyer to sue this Leijonhufvud? Best, Sabri Ah but you have never asserted it previously on the list and unless you have a physical record of the assertion, your assertion that you asserted it is undecideable for us and the courts. :- John Wheeler call your office, Ian
Re: Interesting Wall Street Journal stories
Ian: Ah but you have never asserted it previously on the list and unless you have a physical record of the assertion, your assertion that you asserted it is undecideable for us and the courts. :- Don't care. I want my prize. Otherwise, I will sue you too. By the way, I guess, we are dealing with a neither observable nor verifiable claim, which is the most difficult problem in contract theory. Does anyone know how to deal with unobservable, unverifiable claims, by the way? Best, Sabri
Re: Interesting Wall Street Journal stories
I don't actually think women mind the fact that their lovers/husbands find other women attractiveso long as they're, ummm, satisfied. Joanna Sabri Oncu wrote: Ian: The two economists in the third paragraph seem to be Larry Summers and Joe Stiglitz or Laura D'Andrea Tyson Hey! I know Laura! I met her a few times. Such an attractive woman, although, at times, I got bored during her speeches. She was much better than the previuos Haas Dean, though. They were equally boring to listen to but, at least, she was better looking than the previous one, for a heterosexual man, that is. Don't tell my wife what I thought about Laura, please. Well! This shows how seriously I take economists I suppose. Ian, I resent! I gave the right answer to your quizz but still did not get any prize. Should I contact my intellectual property lawyer to sue this Leijonhufvud? Best, Sabri
Re: Interesting Wall Street Journal stories
This thread might redeem Pen-l. Some years ago, while in Washington, Laura D'Andrea Tyson was supposedly upset about what was being said here. Now that we have declared her a babe maybe she will forgive us our sins in disrespecting the Clintonistas. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu
Re: Interesting Wall Street Journal stories
Micheal: Now that we have declared her a babe maybe she will forgive us our sins in disrespecting the Clintonistas. Hey Micheal! You owe me one! Best, Sabri
