I wrote:
--- Chris Doss [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Yes. Ukraine is part of the Union of Four (Russia,
Uraine, Kazakhstan, Belarus). The post-Soviet space
is
consolidating itself politically and economically.
Armenia, Uzbekistan, Kyrgystan and Tajikistan are
also
tilting toward Moscow. Even Georgia, in its own
strange way.
This is a few years old, but I think this article from
a Kyrgyz newspaper sheds some light on this process.
Kyrgyz paper outlines Russia's interests in
Uzbekistan, Central Asia
Vladimir Putin's visit to Uzbekistan, his first
foreign visit as president
of Russia, is recognition by Russia that Uzbekistan is
its strategic
partner in Central Asia, `Slovo Kyrgyzstana' newspaper
wrote on 19th May.
The newspaper said that Uzbekistan was the only
Central Asian state which
is really able to counter the possible advancement of
the Taleban army to
north. It also said that Uzbekistan could fit most
organically into the
military and political axis between Belgrade, Minsk,
Moscow, Delhi and
Beijing which had arisen following NATO's actions in
the Balkans. The
following is the text of the newspaper article:
[newspaper headline] A battle for Asia. Some
thoughts about Russian
President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin's visit to
Uzbekistan
Today [19th May], Putin is in Tashkent. This is his
first visit abroad as
the head of the Russian state. It is symbolic that
just a few days after
the inauguration and his advent to the post
officially, the second Russian
president headed for the republics of Central Asia
(more likely, Putin will
visit Dushanbe after Tashkent).
Why namely Tashkent rather than Astana and Bishkek?
It is needless to copy the Russian Foreign Ministry's
protocols. The visit
has been prepared in good time and carefully. Even as
prime minister, Putin
met the Uzbek leader, Islam Karimov, in Tashkent, and
the sides outlined
strategic ways of rapprochement back then, perhaps,
for the first time
after so many years of separation. The Russian
president's visit to the
Uzbek capital today is the logical conclusion to the
first and, a priori,
recognition of Uzbekistan by Russia as its strategic
partner in Central
Asia. It is namely Uzbekistan and not Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan or Tajikistan.
Everything is clear with the latter. Tajikistan cannot
survive without
Russia. Tajikistan, which still suffers from the
consequences of the civil
war , is being torn by conflicts with the opposition
and which feels a
constant threat from its southern neighbour - warring
Afghanistan, looks at
the mouth of Moscow as at its beloved mother. Russia
is increasing its
economic and, what is the main thing, its military
presence in Tajikistan
and it is well aware that otherwise the external
threat from Afghanistan
will be more noticeable. Yet the unpredictable
Taleban, should they
suddently take it into their head, will go across the
Pamirs like a knife
through butter, and it is just the presence of Russian
servicemen in
Tajikistan that in the past few years has been the
most powerful deterrent
to the commanders and spiritual leaders of the Taleban
movement.
More or less everything is clear for Putin with
Kyrgyzstan as well. Yes,
you, too, are our strategic partner, Moscow has
agreed in response to
Bishkek's recognition of Russia as its strategic
partner, but, all this is,
very likely, as far as global politics is concerned.
Russia is courteous
and considerate to Kyrgyzstan and is helping with
everything in its power,
but there is a feeling that everything has been put
off until a later time.
The membership of the Customs Union of four [Belarus,
Russia, Kazakhstan
and Kyrgyzstan], in spite of the abundance of
multilateral and bilateral
documents which were signed within the framework of
this union, has not
opened for Kyrgyzstan the long-awaited safety valve.
A window onto Europe
did not pan out. Kyrgyzstan, which, with its destroyed
economy, is hovering
on the edge of an economic precipice, is of no
interest at all for Russia
in this respect. Moreover, official Bishkek must
tackle the moot problem of
its so-called Russian-speaking people on its own and
as soon as possible.
They may be given help to survive and remain in the
republic or be squeezed
out completely (this also is possible), but in this
case, Russia will turn
its back on Kyrgyzstan completely and take back the
word strategic
Russia has special relations with Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan, which has common
borders with Russia, a comparatively stable economy
and a powerful Slavonic
stratum in its north, has really become a strategic
partner for Russia.
Relations between the two countries are close and they
must and will
develop coherently and dynamically, at least, for two
to three decades to
come.
There remains Uzbekistan with its president who has
been mysterious until
recently. It appears that it is Islam Karimov whom,
thanks to Putin's
present visit [to Uzbekistan], Russia sees in the role
of regional leader.
What will Russia get from this?
