NY Times, August 8, 2004
Venezuela's Opposition Loses Momentum
By JUAN FORERO
CARACAS, Venezuela, Aug. 6 - Pompeyo Márquez, with his shaggy mustache,
tuft of white hair and craggy voice, is the new face of Venezuela's
opposition movement, and therein may lie the problem.
After the opposition's failed coup attempt against President Hugo Chávez
and its four economically devastating strikes, the old dinosaurs of the
two political parties that plundered the country for decades and are now
in opposition have lost their influence.
The idea now is to have someone with a steady hand and voice - as well
as impeccable credentials - reaching Venezuelans as the opposition tries
to gain momentum to oust Mr. Chávez, a fiery leftist who has turned
Venezuelan political tradition upside down with his policies, in a
recall referendum on Aug. 15.
So Mr. Márquez, a former Communist guerrilla and political prisoner, is
more often than not the opposition's man on the stump these days.
People ask, 'After Chávez, then what?' and I say, 'After Chávez we will
have the rule of law, respect for institutions and unity,' Mr.
Márquez, microphone in hand, said to wild applause on a recent night
before 300 people packed into a restaurant outside Caracas. We are the
future. Chávez just talks about the federalist wars of the past.
But even Mr. Márquez, who until recent months had rarely shared the dais
with the country's top opposition leaders, admits his time has passed.
He is 82 years old. He took part in his first strike in 1936. His
standard speech includes references to his experiences in the
post-Stalinist Soviet Union.
He may be respected for his honesty and tenacity. But political analysts
say that having him serve as one of a handful of spokesmen for the
coalition of disparate parties, unions and business executives opposed
to Mr. Chávez is another sign of a fractured, stumbling movement that
has lacked adroit leadership and a coherent message.
In Mr. Chávez, the opposition faces a messianic figure who is a
formidable campaigner, drips charisma and now benefits from sky-high oil
prices that are giving his government billions of dollars for popular
social programs that solidify his base of support.
But of Mr. Márquez, Riordan Roett, director of Latin American studies at
the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies,
said: Give me a break - there's no charisma there. In the 40's and
50's, an 82-year-old figure might have been O.K. But Chávez is not 82.
He's doing well, he's bouncy. He's got high oil prices. They need
someone to go up against him.
Indeed, with their last-gasp chance to unseat Mr. Chávez just a week
away, the opposition appears to be unable to gain traction.
I don't feel that the opposition has connected with the hopes of the
people, said Jorge Botti, a businessman and opposition leader. They
may believe there is something better than Chávez, but they have not
seen an option.
In recent weeks, some polls have indicated that Mr. Chávez will squeak
out a victory in the recall. A victory would probably smash opponents
who, before they came up with this campaign, had also tried all manner
of illegal means to get rid of him.
The polls - by the opposition and by the government - are often too
close to call.
Undecided voters, the so-called ni-nis, or neither-nors, who have no
affinity for either side, are the wild cards both sides want to capture.
But what is clear is that Mr. Chávez, who just a few months ago was
behind in polls by wide margins, has shot up in popularity and is now
within reach of winning.
The situation for Chávez has no doubt improved, and remember, Chávez as
a candidate, the worker of a campaign, is extraordinarily good, said
Alfredo Torres, a pollster who works for an anti-Chávez political party.
The opposition has been a disaster in terms of creating more voters
against Chávez.
full: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/08/international/americas/08venez.html
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