BLS Daly Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, JANUARY 28, 2002 NEW YORK (MONEY Magazine) - Over the past few years, employers fattened their benefit plans with an array of tasty treats, from pet insurance to stress-reducing lunchtime massages. This year, it's back to basics -- retirement, health care, stock options and insurance -- as compensation and benefits managers trim calories in response to the economic downturn and the mounting uncertainty of a nation at war. Personal retirement funds may be getting a heavy beating from the stock market and layoffs, but the value that employees place in their nest eggs hasn't diminished. Defined-benefit plans: Companies are moving away from traditional pensions (in which the payout is determined by a formula applied to final average earnings) in favor of less costly cash-balance plans and the increasingly popular 401(k) defined-contribution plans. (http://money.cnn.com/2002/01/24/companies/benefits_money) Younger workers who once expected to ride the wave from the economic surge are instead taking some of the biggest tumbles in the recession. The trend alarms economists because youth unemployment can hamper income and advancement later on. The jobless rate for those ages 20 to 24 hit 9.6% last month, while those 16 to 19 are seeing unemployment rates topping 16%, according to the Department of Labor. That's far above the national jobless rate of 5.8%. (http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-01-24-unemployment-young.htm, Page 1B) According to data compiled by BNA, the all-settlements weighted average first-year wage increase in agreements reported in 2001 was 4.2 percent, compared with 3.8 percent in 2000. The second- and third-year weighted average increases in agreements in 2001 were 3.7 percent and 3.8 percent respectively. (Daily Labor Report, page D-1) With the economy in particular decline in the Pacific Northwest, where Oregon and Washington have the two highest unemployment rates in the nation, hundreds of immigrant laborers have left agricultural area on the eastern side of the Cascade Mountains in recent months, looking for work in the urban areas on the western side. However, the market for such unskilled work is drying up. (The New York Times, Sunday , January 27, section 1, page 18) A study released last week by the Economic Policy Institute in Washington argues that a stronger recovery than is currently forecast by most economists will be needed to prevent unemployment from continuing to rise this year. The unemployment rate was 5.8 percent in December up from a low of 3.9 percent in October 2000. The institute's study predicts that even with the economy recovering, unemployment will continue to rise, reaching 6.5 percent by the fall, and hovering in the 6 percent range next year. (The New York Times, page A21) DUE OUT TUESDAY: Mass Layoffs in December <>
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT: Tuesday, January 29, 2002 RELEASED TODAY: In December 2001, there was 2,425 mass layoffs actions by employers as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, according to data from the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single establishment, and the number of workers involved totaled 267,839. The number of layoff events and initial claimants for unemployment insurance, while lower than in December 2000, were the second highest for the month of December since the series began in April 1995. Sales of new homes rose 5.7 percent in December, thanks in part to low mortgage rates, making 2001 a record year for new-home sales, the Commerce Department reported. The country slid into recession in March and was dealt another blow by the September 11 terror attacks, but the housing market, one of economy's few bright spots, managed to hold up well because of low mortgage rates, analysts say ( Washington Post, page E2, New York Times, page C1). Job dissatisfaction and an aging population have contributed to a shortage of nurses, according to numerous studies. But the University of Pennsylvania's School of Nursing says interest is now rising. "The stability of nursing and the health professions is appealing," says Linda Aiken, a professor there. Applications for fall are up at the University of Washington's School of Nursing. "You can graduate at 22 and be making $40,000," says Carolyn Chow, recruiting director (The Wall Street Journal page A1). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment: December 2001 <>
BLS Daily Report, Wednesday January 30
RELEASED TODAY: In December, 305 metropolitan areas reported higher unemployment rates than a year earlier, 21 areas had lower rates, and 5 areas had rates that were unchanged, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Ten metropolitan areas had jobless rates over 10.0 percent, with seven of these in California and two along the Mexican border in other states. Only 3 areas recorded rates below 2.0 percent, compared with 43 areas in December 2000. A measure to boost payment levels and expand unemployment benefits to part-time and newly hired workers will receive a second Senate vote the week of Feb. 4, following the proposal's narrow defeat Jan. 29 ( Daily Labor Report, page AA-1). Consumer confidence increased in January for the second consecutive month, hinting that a recovery from the recession could be near, according to the Conference Board. Confidence increased nearly three points from 94.6 in December to 97.3 in January ( Daily Labor Report, page A-4). A rise in durable-goods orders in December and an increase in consumer confidence in January have added to the likelihood that Federal Reserve policy makers, who meet today, have finished cutting interest rates for now. New orders for durable goods, or items meant to last three years or longer, rose by 2.0% after falling 6.0% in November, a drop originally estimated at 4.8%. Capital-goods orders excluding defense rose 1.3%, the third straight increase, paced by a 3.5% gain in orders for computers and electronics, suggesting business investment, the dominant factor in the recession, may have stabilized. Separately, the Conference Board said its index of consumer confidence rose to 97.3 in January from a revised 94.6 in December ( The Wall Street Journal, page A2, and The New York Times, page C4). Since March, nearly 1.4 million jobs have been lost--1.1 million of them in manufacturing--as the nation tipped into recession and then suffered the shock of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, which triggered waves of layoffs in the airline, hospitality and related industries. The nation's payrolls plummeted by more than 800,000 workers in October and November combined, followed by a drop of 124,000 in December. Analysts' expectations vary widely, but many expect Labor to report a small decline of 20,000 or so in January, which would be a big improvement compared with the previous months. But in recent days, a growing number of forecasters have begun to predict a rise in payrolls of up to 100,000 jobs. (This article also shows a graph charting the unemployment rate and another one charting the monthly change in non-farm payroll employment, and cites BLS as the source.) ( The Washington Post, page E1). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Employment Cost Index, December 2001 <>
BLS Daily Report, Thursday January 31
RELEASED TODAY: The Employment Cost Index (not seasonally adjusted) for December 2001 was 156.8 (June 1989=100), an increase of 4.1 percent from December 2000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The Employment Cost Index (ECI), a component of the Bureau's National Compensation Survey, measures changes in compensation costs, which includes wages, salaries, and employer costs for employee benefits. U.S. economic growth turned positive in the last three months of 2001, increasing a slight 0.2 percent on very strong consumer and federal spending, the Commerce Department says. Americans responded to the zero-percent auto financing, which helped lift consumer spending 5.4 percent, while government outlays, both military and nondefense, shot up 9.5 percent ( Daily Labor Report, page D-1). The number of large-scale layoffs soared in New England and the Midwest during December, despite a decline in such events in the U.S. as a whole, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The federal agency tracks so-called mass layoffs, in which 50 or more employees lose their jobs in a single action from a company. New England had 116 such events in December, a 53% increase from the month before, resulting in 12,809 initial claims for unemployment insurance, a 45% jump. And in the Midwest, mass layoffs increased by 28% to 1,013 in December, resulting in 119,250 initial unemployment claims, up 18%. But nationally such large-scale job-cutting actions dropped 9% in December, to 2,425. The largest was in Pacific Coast states--a 44% decrease from November. Lewis Siegel, senior economist at the agency, says the Midwest layoffs were driven by auto-related manufacturers, even as car companies saw a boom in sales because of 0%-financing offers. No industry dominated in New England, though Mr. Siegel notes smaller sectors related to communications and computer equipment had high numbers of layoffs. Mr. Siegel notes, however, that month-to-month comparisons are difficult as the data aren't seasonally adjusted ( The Wall Street Journal, January 30, Andrew Caffey, page B9). Against the backdrop of an economy that is displaying remarkable resilience, the Federal Reserve brought its yearlong campaign of interest rate cuts to an apparent end today, voting to hold rates steady and citing signs of an incipient recovery. The decision by the central bank was announced a few hours after the Commerce Department reported that the economy had defied widespread predictions of a sharp contraction after the terrorist attacks to show a small growth in the last three months of the year. The department said the economy expanded at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in October , November and December, driven in large part by robust consumer spending, especially on new cars. In the previous quarter, the economy contracted at a 1.3 percent annual rate ( The New York Times, page A1). The numbers point to economic recovery. Powered by soaring auto sales and a sharp increase in government spending, the U.S. economy resumed growing in the final three months of last year, albeit at a meager 0.2 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department reported yesterday. The unexpectedly strong number, an initial estimate that will be revised in coming months, suggests that the U.S. recession that began last spring may have already ended. If so, it will have been the mildest on record ( The Washington Post, page A1). DUE OUT TOMORROW: The Employment Situation: January 2002 <>
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2002 RELEASED TODAY: Employment continued to decline in January, and the unemployment rate decreased to 5.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 89,000 over the month, as job losses continued in manufacturing and construction employment also fell. Consumer and government spending helped the U.S. economy grow slightly during the final quarter of 2001, and several other government indicators released in January were stronger than analysts had predicted, providing hints of a recovery in the near future, economists said (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). New claims for unemployment insurance benefits for the week ending January 26 increased by 30,000 to 390,000, up from the previous week's revised figure of 360,000, according to figures released January 31 by the Labor Department's Employment and Training Administration (Daily Labor Report, page D-16). Consumer spending fell back slightly in December from strong activity inspired by auto sales in October and November, while personal income posted its first gain since before September 11, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported January 31 (Daily Labor Report, page D-19) Reversing a four-month downward trend, demand for labor rose slightly in December, up one point to 46, according to the Conference Board's help-wanted index (Daily Labor Report, page A-3). Unemployment insurance funds in Texas and New York will be depleted in the next few weeks unless the federal government provides more than $1.5 billion in loans, state officials said yesterday (The Washington Post, page E1). American cut back on their spending a bit in December as free-financing offers for cars and other incentives began to wane. But incomes rose for the first time in four months, putting consumers in a better position to spend in the months ahead, economists said (The Washington Post, page E3). Jobless claims last week rose for the first time in a month suggesting an uneven economic recovery. Other economic data released yesterday showed strong growth in personal income and a modest deceleration in the growth of labor costs (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). The construction industry slipped back during the first half of 2001, but then proved to be one of the more resilient sectors of the economy as the year progressed," said a vice president of F.W. Dodge. The Dodge Index, a measure of national construction value that uses 1996 as a base year of 100, was at 145 for December, up from 144 in November (The Wall Street Journal, page B2). <>
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, FEBRUARY 4, 2002: The nation's employers reduced payrolls by another 89,000 in January, but the cuts were smaller than the average over the prior 3 months, according to figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate declined to 5.6 percent for the month, but analysts say it is too soon to call the improvement a clear sign of a turnaround. Economists say they are encouraged by the pattern of smaller monthly payroll declines since the peak of last October when losses reached nearly half a million. Job losses were again concentrated in manufacturing in January. Since the recession began in March, total employment has declined 1.4 million. There were 7.9 million persons unemployed in January, up 2 million from a year ago (Daily Labor Report, page D-1. Text of Commissioner Lois Orr's statement on the January employment report as presented to the Joint Economic Committee, page E-1). The pace of layoffs clearly slowed last month, the government said yesterday, adding to growing evidence that the recession that began in March could be drawing to a close. But the economy still lost 89,000 jobs in January, in a sign that it remained weak and that any recovery was likely to be uneven, economists said. Manufacturers continued to reduce their payrolls, although at a slower rate than last year, and the sprawling service sector added workers for the first time since August (David Leonhardt and Daniel Altman, The New York Times, February 2, page B1). The economy is flashing clear signs that it is on the mend, but workers are unlikely to feel a recovery for months, says The Wall Street Journal (page A2). That point was underscored by a stack of economic data released Friday. Manufacturing, the hardest-hit sector during the downturn, appeared to be near expanding for the first time in 18 months, according to one report. Consumer confidence rose for the fourth straight month in January, though not as much as was initially reported in mid January. Construction spending surged up in December. Yet the Labor Department said its monthly survey of businesses showed payroll employment continued to fall in the U.S. during January, albeit at a more moderate rate than during the first few months after September 11 (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). The eighteen-month-long contraction in manufacturing activity neared its end in January as new orders, production, and supplier deliveries all expanded during the month, the Institute for Supply Management reported (Daily Labor Report, page A-12). Controlling health care costs is the top priority for employee benefit specialists, according to a survey by management consulting firm Deloitte & Touche and the International Society of Certified Employee Benefit Specialists. Over 80 percent of survey respondents said controlling health and welfare costs were a top 2002 priority, compared with second place Internet implementation or expansion (51 percent). The 575 surveyed members of ISCEBS were allowed to choose more than one priority for 2002 in the November 2001 fax-conducted survey (Daily Labor Report, page A-4). <>
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 2002: The Bush administration's budget request for fiscal year 2003 includes $511.1 million dollars for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an increase of $21.5 million over FY 2002, and 2,529 FTE, the same level as FY 2002 . Included in the request is $5.9 million for modernizing the computing systems of the Producer Price Index and International Price Program, and making important improvements to both programs. In FY 2003, BLS will continue to develop monthly estimates on the numbers of separations, new hires, and current job openings for the economy as a whole and major industry groupings. In conjunction with the Census Bureau, BLS will begin in FY 2003 to conduct the American Time-Use Survey. BLS will also implement the conversion of all national, State, and area estimates to the North American Industry Classification System, including reconstruction of historical time series, and complete the 4-year phase-in of the Current Employment Survey (CES) sample redesign. The entire CES program will be based on a probability sample design for the first time. In addition, BLS will continue to improve the quality of estimates produced by the Local Area Unemployment Statistics program, and to develop the capability to produce additional demographic data at the local level. The BLS request includes $223.0 million and 497 FTE for the Labor Force Statistics program. The FY 2003 request includes $5.9 million to modernize the computing systems for monthly processing of the PPI and U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes, and to make important improvements in both programs, such as annual weight updates to the U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes and experimental PPIs for goods and services that will provide the first economy-wide measure of changes in producer prices. The BLS request includes $160.7 million and 1,097 FTE for the Prices and Living Conditions program. In FY 2003, BLS will continue its ongoing plan to update the sample of establishments that is used to produce the local area pay data, the Employment Cost Index, and the Employee Benefits Survey. BLS also will publish the results of the 2001 Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses and 2002 Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries. The BLS request includes $76.4 million and 579 FTE for the Compensation and Working Conditions program. In FY 2003, BLS will publish new measures of labor productivity and unit labor costs for 2 service-producing industries. BLS also will develop a new procedure for adjusting hours collected in the Current Employment Statistics survey from an hours-paid basis to an hours-at-work basis, and conduct a study of the family from an international perspective, including demographic trends and the work/family relationship. The BLS request includes $10.0 million and 81 FTE for the Productivity and Technology program. The BLS request also includes $28.1 million and 214 FTE for the Executive Direction program. It provides agency-wide policy and management direction, including all centralized support services in the administrative, publications, computer systems and statistical methods research areas (Daily Labor Report, page E-47). General Federal budget articles including insights on funding requests for the Department of Labor in The Washington Post (page A13), The New York Times (page A1); The Wall Street Journal (page A8). "Surveys indicate that family and medical leave is becoming a more important part of the experience of employers and employees," according to Jane Waldfogel, writing in the "Monthly Labor Review. Waldfogel is associate professor of social work and public affairs at Columbia University School of Social Work in New York. Her findings are based on the Department of Labor's surveys of employees and businesses in 2000. "On the employer side, more establishments are offering family and medical leave policies, in many instances going beyond what is required by the Family and Medical Leave Act," she said. "Two-thirds of covered establishments are finding the act easy to administer and an even larger majority reports that the FMLA has had no adverse effects on their businesses." On the employee side, according to Waldfogel, "workers are using FMLA leave in increasing numbers and the proportion of those who say they needed leave but were not able to take it is decreasing." (Carol Kleiman, http:www.chicagotribune.com/.../chi-0202050257feb05.column?coll=chi%2Dbusine ss%2Dhe). Orders to U.S. factories rose by 1.2 percent in December, suggesting that the nation's battered manufacturing sector may see better days ahead, writes Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/240396p-2287416c.html). The advance in factory orders reported today by the Commerce Department came after orders fell by 4.3 percent in November. Manufacturers have borne the brunt of the recession that began in March. To cope, they have sharply cut pr
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The seasonally adjusted annual rates of productivity change in the fourth quarter and the annual average changes in productivity -- preliminary data measured by output per hour of all persons -- were 3.4 (fourth quarter) and 1.8 (annual averages 2000-2001) for the business sector. In the non-farm business sector, those changes were 3.5 (fourth quarter) and 1.8 (annual averages 2000-2001), respectively. In the manufacturing sector, increases in productivity for the fourth quarter were 3.5 and increases in the annual averages 2000-2001 were 1.0. Breaking the manufacturing down to durable and nondurable goods manufacturing, the fourth quarter changes were 2.3 for durable goods and 4.3 for nondurable goods. Changes in annual averages 2000-2001 were 0.5 for durable goods and 1.5 for nondurable goods. Worker productivity increased in the fourth quarter by the largest amount in more than a year, as businesses cut worker hours and eliminated jobs to cope with the ailing economy. Productivity -- the amount of output per hour of work -- increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the October-December quarter, a big improvement over the 1.1 percent growth rate in the previous quarter, the Labor Department reports. Businesses responded to slumping sales by sharply cutting back on their payrolls. That caused the total number of hours worked to drop at a faster pace than output, thus creating a rise in productivity (Jeannine Avers, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/241551p-2295861c.html). Unemployment continued to worse in nearly all metro regions in December, though there were a few bright spots in the monthly report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Of 331 metro regions tracked by the agency, 305 had higher unemployment in December, compared with December 2000 (The Wall Street Journal, page B13). Business activity in the nonmanufacturing sector dropped slightly in January, according to the Institute for Supply Management, which found that the level of new orders dropped, while exports and imports increased. After registering slight growth in December, the index dropped to 49.6 percent in January, from 50.1 percent in December, ISM found. "Consideration of December's and November's indexes of 50.1 and 49.8 respectively, indicates that the nonmanufacturing economy has been seesawing over the expansion/contraction mark for the past 3 months, said Ralph G. Kauffman, chair of ISM (Daily Labor Report, page A-7; The New York Times, page C11; Chicago Tribune). A key index measuring the vast services sector of the economy retreated slightly in January, a report Tuesday showed, casting doubt on hopes for a quick rebound from recession. The Institute for Supply Management said its monthly nonmanufacturing index, which measures everything from transportation to legal and financial services, edged lower to 49.6 percent in January from a revised 50.1 in December. That followed two straight rises and bucked economists' forecasts for a rise to 52.0 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates growth (Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-02-05-services.htm; USA Today, page 1B). The U.S. economy is poised for recovery this year, led by consumer spending and business investment, the Bush administration says in the "Economic Report of the President". The report also sets out long term policy for improving economic institutions and highlights the benefits of globalization. It also elaborates on the economic assumptions used in the fiscal year 2003 budget and analyzes special topics (Daily Labor Report, page A-13; The Wall Street Journal, page A2). Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. says 2002 began with a huge increase in layoff announcements that included the auto industry as well as several retailers. Corporate layoffs announced in January jumped to a total of 212,704, a 32 percent increase over the December level, the firm said. It was the fourth time in 7 months that job cuts exceeded 200,000. "January tends to be a heavy month for layoffs as corporations assess year-end balance sheets" and plan cost-cutting moves, said John Challenger, chief executive officer of the firm, based in Northbrook, Ill (Daily Labor Report, page A-11; The Washington Post, page E2; The New York Times, page C11; http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/240854p-2290347c.html). Consumer confidence increased nationally for the second straight month in January, with all regions showing higher levels than in November 2001. Rocky Mountain states, buoyed in part by the Winter Olympics, remained the most upbeat, as they were for most of the '90s. The East South Central region showed the biggest jump, with confidence levels 27 percent higher than in November as its manufacturing sector stabilized, though the region remained below the national average. West South Central states recorded the smal
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 7, 2002: Nonfarm business productivity increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2001 as output and hours worked declined, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. "During the current recession, in contrast to the last two recessions when productivity fell, productivity has increased and unit labor costs have been contained," said Vivian Gold, an economist with Haver Analytics, Inc, a New York-based economic consulting firm. Although production was up, the recession was still felt as the number of hours spent on the job fell 3.7 percent, BLS reported. Output dropped 0.4 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-1; The Washington Post, page E2; The New York Times (Associated Press), page C2). For the first time in a generation, American workers became significantly more productive in the past year even as the economy itself was sinking, says The Wall Street Journal (page A2). The Labor Department reported that nonfarm labor productivity, or output per hour worked, grew at a seasonally adjusted 3.5 percent rate during the final 3 months of 2001 and at a 2.3 percent rate in the 9 month period from the start of the recession in March. The aggressive corporate cost cutting that accelerated after September 11 appears to have helped companies be more productive, though at the expense of more than a million jobs and many work-hours. During the previous four recessions, productivity either contracted or barely grew, a sign that businesses in the past reacted more slowly and less effectively to signs of a downturn. The information technology sector is weathering the current recession well, as it continues to show modest job gains and solid contributions to productivity, according to the Department of Commerce in a report entitled "Digital Economy 2002". Average annual wages typically are much higher for information technology workers, especially those whose jobs demand the highest skills. According to the Commerce study, the average annual wage for workers in IT-producing industries was $73,800 in 2000, or more than twice the average for all private sector workers, at $35,000 in 2000. Between 1992 and 2000, wages paid by IT producing industries rose by 7.4 percent a year on average, compared with a 4.1 percent average for all private sector industries. "Among workers in IT-producing industries in 2000, those in software and computer services and software development earned the highest average wage, $80,900," the report said. These workers saw their wages rise an average of 7.8 percent a year between 1992 and 2000. Most of the acceleration in U.S. productivity growth during the last half of the 1990s was generated by industries showing the greatest IT investment, the report said. These industries included telecommunications, transportation, pipelines other than natural gas, and radio and television (Daily Labor Report, page A-11). The number of Americans with million-dollar incomes more than doubled from 1995 through 1999, as their salaries and their profits from stocks soared, government figures to be published today show. The percentage of their income that went to federal income taxes, however, fell by 11 percent. The incomes of Americans who made less grew as well, though by far less, and the share of their income that went to taxes rose slightly, according to Internal Revenue Service income tax data for the 5 years through 1999, the latest year available. About 205,000 taxpayers made $1 million or more in 1999, up from less than 87,000 in 1995. The average income of those who made $1 million or more rose by $568,000 to $3.2 million. The incomes of taxpayers making less than $1 million also rose, though not as sharply. The income of everyone making less than a million dollars averaged $41,000 in 1999, up from $33,500 in 1995, a 22 percent increase, the data, using adjusted gross incomes, showed. The tax return data showed that the number of taxpayers reporting incomes of less than $25,000 declined slightly, while those reporting incomes of higher levels increased. But William Beech, an economist at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, D.C., which supports lower tax rates to foster economic growth, said that these figures may be misleading in several ways. The data fail to capture the growing number of the working poor and their meager incomes, because many of these are immigrants who work off the books, he said. "The reported income that the IRS picks up from tax returns reflects people who are making their way up the economic ladder," Beech said. He also noted that among those who file income tax returns, many of who appear poor may actually be retirees with substantial investments. But they need only modest incomes because their mortgages are paid off and their children are grown (The New York Times, page A17). New claims for state unemployment insurance dropped by 15,000 last week, to a seasonally adjusted 3
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 8, 2002: With each passing week, new economic figures add support to the view that the U.S. economy is turning around, according to many economists, more and more of whom now expect growth at a 1 to 3 percent annual rate in the current quarter. Yesterday, for instance, the Labor Department reported that initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 376,000 last week, bringing the more important 4-week moving average for claims down to 389,500 -- about the same level as when the recession began 10 months ago. "Job declines are growing smaller, and the number of companies adding workers is growing larger," said economist L. Douglas Lee, of Economics From Washington, Inc. "Since labor markets typically lag behind other parts of the economy by about 6 months, these signs of stability are emerging quite early in the current cycle," Lee added. Nonfarm payroll employment did fall by 89,000 last month, but even that number was seen as a positive sign because it was the smallest decline since August, just before the September 11 terrorist attacks temporarily knocked the props from under both business and consumer confidence. Much of last month's loss in payroll jobs came in manufacturing, as has generally been the case since the recession began. But even in that hard-hit sector of the economy, things are looking up. The Institute for Supply Management's index that tracks conditions in manufacturing rose to 49.9 last month from 48.1` in December. (John M. Berry, The Washington Post, page E1). Data from newly negotiated contract agreements compiled by the Bureau of National Affairs through February 4, 2002, show that the average first-year wage increase was 3.8 percent, compared with 3.7 percent in the comparable period of 2001. The median first-year increase for the same settlements was 3.5 percent, and the weighted average increase was 2.3 percent. Among nonmanufacturing (excluding construction) settlements, the average increase was 4.4 percent, while manufacturing contracts posted an average increase of 1.6 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-4). Deep discounting of winter merchandise drew consumers into stores in January, offering many struggling retailers a brief respite from a recent spate of sluggish sales (Associated Press, The New York Times page C10; The Wall Street Journal, page B4). <>
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 12, 2002: U.S. chain store sales rose in the week that ended Saturday, a possible sign that the economy is edging its way out of recession, according to two reports out Tuesday. U.S. chain store sales rose 2.1 percent during the week ended Feb. 9, after a 0.7 percent drop the prior week, the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and UBS Warburg reported in their Weekly Chain Store Sales Snapshot. And Instinet Research's Redbook Retail Sales Average rose 0.9 percent in the week ended February 9 compared with the same period last month (Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/retail/2002-02-12-retail-sales.htm). Laid-off employees are finding that they may not be able to get unemployment benefits because they've taken early retirement or severance payments, writes Stephanie Armour in USA Today (page 1B). It can be an unexpected blow to many of the 8.3 million Americans now unemployed. "You can have your benefits reduced or be disqualified if you get money from early retirement. You can't double dip," says Jeffrey Wenger, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a nonprofit think tank in Washington. DUE OUT TOMORROW: Extended Mass Layoffs in Fourth Quarter 2001 <>
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 13, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: Employers reported the separation of 486,406 workers from their jobs for more than 30 days in 2,538 mass layoff actions in the fourth quarter of 2001, according to preliminary figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Both the number of separations and the number of layoff events were sharply higher than in October-December 2000. This marked the fifth consecutive quarter of significant over-the-year increases in extended mass layoff activity. Fourth-quarter 2001 marked the largest number of extended mass layoff events and separations for any fourth quarter since 1995. Jobless Americans had a much harder time finding work in the fourth quarter of 2001 than they did in the same period a year earlier, a government report shows today. The number of workers laid off from U.S. firms who remained unemployed for more than 30 days jumped to 486,406 in the fourth quarter, compared with 427,070 in the October-December 2000 period, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The near-14 percent rise represents the fifth consecutive quarterly increase in what the Labor Department calls "extended layoffs" -- job cuts leading to unemployment for one month or more (Reuters, http://reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=businessnews&StoryID=593791). White-collar workers made up almost 60 percent of the workforce in 2000, up from less than 18 percent in 1900, while blue-collar workers comprised less than 25 percent, down from about 41 percent in 1950, according to a new report by the AFL-CIO's Department for Professional Employees. The report, "Current Statistics on White Collar Employees, 2001 edition", also found that the percentage of white-collar employees is expected to increase while the percentage of blue-collar workers will continue to decline. At the same time, the percentage of working women in the workforce has increased with women now accounting for 46.5 percent of the labor force. Women currently comprise the majority of professional, technical, administrative support workers, as well as the majority of sales and service workers, the report said (Daily Labor Report, February 11, page A-6). A drop in car sales, reflecting the waning of free-financing offers, pushed down sales at the nation's retailers by 0.2 percent in January. But consumers didn't close their wallets and pocketbooks last month. They spent on a wide range of items from clothing to building and garden supplies, the Commerce Department said today. Excluding volatile auto sales, overall retail sales rose by a solid 1.2 percent in January (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/250716p-2361492c.html). Economists closely watch housing data these days, looking for clues to the health of the market, which has helped to prop up an otherwise wobbly economy. But a report yesterday from the National Association of Realtors on home-price appreciation raised as many questions as it appeared to have answered. The Realtors said that median prices of existing homes rose 6.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with a year earlier, to $148,000. That was much faster than historical norms. Typically home prices rise between 3 and 5 percent a year, the Realtors' group said. But the bullish report was marred by questions about the accuracy of statistics from one state -- Florida (The Wall Street Journal, page A2; Bloomberg News, http://www.latimes.com/business/la-11098feb13.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines% 2Dbusiness). The percent of foreign-born residents in the U.S. increased to 10.4 percent form 7.9 percent between 1990 and 2000, with gains coming in all regions. Immigrants tend to initially live in places where other family members have previously settled. But labor shortages during the booming '90s caused newer arrivals to also disperse throughout the country. Rocky Mountain states such as Arizona and Nevada experienced among the sharpest growth as immigrants from Mexico filled jobs in the tourism and agriculture sectors. The Great Plains region doubled its percent of foreign born residents to 4 percent, partly because better-paying jobs in cities lured native-born workers away from farms, creating new opportunity for immigrants. The foreign born population is expected to continue expanding because of U.S. labor shortages (The Wall Street Journal, page B13). DUE OUT TOMORROW: U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes, January 2002 <>
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 14, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.4 percent in January 2002, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The upturn, the first since May of last year, was led by a turnaround in prices for petroleum. In January, the Export Price Index fell for the fourth straight month, dipping 0.1 percent. A total of 2,538 extended mass layoffs were reported in the final months of 2001, resulting in 486,406 workers losing their jobs for more than 30 days, according to figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This marks the largest number of extended mass layoff events and separations than any quarter since 1995 (Daily Labor Report, page D-5). New claims for unemployment insurance dipped for the second week in a row last week, reaching a level that suggests companies may be easing layoffs as signs of an economic recovery mount. The Labor Department reported today that for the work week ending February 9, new claims for jobless benefits fell by a seasonally adjusted 8,000 to 373,000, the lowest level since January 19. The week before, claims went down by 9,000. The more stable 4-week moving average of claims, which smoothes out week-to-week volatility, sank last week to 376,000. That was the lowest level since August 11, when claims stood at 372,000. Recent economic reports suggest the worst may be over for the nation's manufacturers, which have been hardest hit by the economic slump. Manufacturing activity has edged higher and factories are seeing more demand for costly big-ticket goods (Jeanine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/2571756c.html). The number of U.S. workers seeking unemployment aid fell last week, the government said today, in a report that showed an improving labor market and added to signs the recession may be loosening its grip. But while the report suggested some improvement in labor market conditions, it also showed that workers continue to have a hard time finding new jobs. The Labor Department said the number of workers still filing jobless claims after one week without finding a job rose to 3.43 million in the week ending February 2, the latest week for which data is available (Mark Felsenthal, Reuters, http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/2670454.htm). Weaker automobile sales in January pulled overall retail sales down 0.2 percent, but sales outside of the auto sector actually accelerated during the month, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau reports. Led by a 2.9 percent increase in sales of building materials, retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts jumped 1.2 percent in January to a seasonally adjusted level of $223.0 billion. Sales also increased a healthy 2.3 percent in personal care stores and 2.5 percent at clothing stores. Even department stores, which have seen activity drop sharply recently, reported a 2.0 percent increase in January (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Bolstered by rising incomes and hopes that the U.S. economy is on the way to recovery, consumer spending continues to outstrip expectations, according to a Commerce Department report released yesterday. Retail sales, other than those at auto dealers, rose 1.2 percent last month, far more than analysts anticipated. In addition, the figure for December was revised upward to show a 0.7 percent gain instead of a 0.1 percent decline, the Commerce Department said. The retail sales figures provided new support for predictions of many economists that the economy may grow at a 2 to 3 percent annual rate in the current quarter. If it does, the recession that began last spring will be over. A recent report from the National Federation of Independent Business indicates that businesses plan to add to inventories (John M Berry, The Washington Post, page E1; The New York Times, page C2; The Wall Street Journal, page A2). U.S. business inventories fell for the 11th straight month in December, while sales were unchanged, the government said today in a further indication American firms were clearing shelves of stock. Stocks at U.S. businesses fell 0.4 percent in December after a revised 1.2 percent drop the previous month, the Commerce Department said. The number was close to analyst expectations of a 0.5 percent fall (Reuters, http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/2670446.htm). The economy of the 1990s wasn't as good as it felt, writes David Wessel in the "Capital" column of The Wall Street Journal (page A1). With the euphoria gone, he continues, it's clear that the economy, business investment in computers, and stock prices grew at an unsustainable pace. But something substantial happened in the '90s, too, he says. "The Web really was invented. Methods of business really did change. Computers allowed us to do new things," says Robert Gordon, a Northwestern University economist who spent much of the decade criticizing cheerleaders of the Economy formerly known as New.
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods edged up 0.1 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. This increase follows a 0.6-percent drop in December and a 0.5-percent decline in November. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by intermediate goods manufacturers fell 0.1 percent, following a 0.8-percent decline in the prior month. The crude goods index increased 3.7 percent after decreasing 9.6 percent in December. With the release of January 2002 data, BLS updated the value weights used to calculate Producer Price Indexes to more accurately reflect recent production and marketing patterns. The new weights are based on shipment values for the year 1997 published by the Census Bureau. From January 1996 through December 2001, Producer Price Index weights were based on 1992 census shipment values. The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission has posted data on job patterns for minorities and women in private industry for the year 2000 on its Web site, http://www.eeoc.gov. The information is compiled from EEO-1 reporting forms, collected annually from private employers with 100 or more employees or federal contractors with 50 or more employees. The tables include breakdowns in nine job categories: officials and managers, professionals, technicians, sales workers, office and clerical workers, craft workers, operatives, laborers, and service workers. Numbers are broken down by gender and also reported in six racial/ethnic categories: white, minority, black, Hispanic, Asian/Pacific Islander, and American Indian/Alaska Native. Along with the aggregate numbers in each category, the postings provide participation rates that examine how a particular group (compared to other groups) is represented within a job category. A nationwide table, as well as individual tables for the 50 states and the District of Columbia, metropolitan areas, and for standard industrial classifications have been posted on the Web (Daily Labor Report, page A-2). New claims for Unemployment Insurance benefits for the week ending February 9 decreased by 8,000 to 373,000, down from the previous week's revised figure of 381,000. "Jobless claims data suggests that the labor market is stabilizing," said Gerald Cohen, senior economist at Merrill Lynch (Daily Labor Report, page D-6; The Washington Post, page E2; The New York Times, Bloomberg News, page C14). Posting its fifth consecutive decline, the Bureau of National Affairs Wage Trend Indicator predicts that lackluster job growth will help hold annual wage increases below 4 percent through the end of the year. The index is now at its lowest level since the fourth quarter of 1996. As the economy begins to recover from the recession that began last March, most forecasters expect job growth to be sluggish until the pace of overall expansion accelerates later this year. The Wage Trend Indicator is designed to predict changes in private industry wages as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment cost index (ECI) (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Three reports out this morning gave investors an indication of the health of the industrial sector as well as consumer sentiment. Industrial production edged down by just 0.1 percent in January, the best showing in 6 months, a sign that the nation's battered manufacturing sector may be pulling out of a long slump. The tiny decline reported by the Federal Reserve Friday came after output at the nation's factories, mines and utilities dropped by 0.3 percent in December. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment fell for the first time in 5 months in early February as a sluggish stock market and a stubbornly pessimistic assessment of current conditions denied hopes for a vigorous recovery. The University of Michigan's preliminary February consumer sentiment index fell to 90.9 from 93.0 in January, much lower than consensus forecasts for a rise to 93.4. Factory output was unchanged in January, after decreases in 14 of the last 15 months. A substantial rebound in steel production was one of the factors preventing another drop in manufacturing production, the Federal Reserve said. In another report, wholesale inflation edged up 0.1 percent in January, reflecting higher prices for gasoline, cars, and some food products, the Labor Department said. The latest Producer Price Index figures represented a better reading on inflation at the wholesale level than many analysts were expecting. Many had forecast a 0.2 percent rise in overall wholesale prices for last month and a 0.1 percent advance in the core rate. Forecasters had expected overall wholesale prices to show a rise for last month because energy prices -- while still moderate -- had crept up (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A14994-2002Feb15.html). U.S. business inventories fell in December to the lowest level in 2 years -- another sign t
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 19, 2002 After falling three months in a row, the producer price index increased slightly in January, up 0.1 percent, following a 0.6 percent drop in December, according to figures released February 15 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. During the past year, the producer price index dropped 2.6 percent. The index for finished energy goods fell 20.1 percent, while prices for finished consumer foods increased 1.8 percent in the past year. (Daily Labor Report, page D-1) Crude oil prices fell 2.6% on expectations that Wednesday's industry report will show a sixth rise in seven weeks in U.S. gasoline supplies. U.S. reserves of motor fuel are now about 6.9% above last year's levels, leaving refining profits at about a quarter of year-ago levels. U.S. retail gasoline prices fell 0.9 cent to $1.107 a gallon in the week ended February 11, the Department of Energy said in its latest survey of 900 filling stations. The average U.S. price for regular gasoline was 36.9 cents, or 25%, lower than a year ago, the survey showed. Gasoline reached a 21/2-year low of $1.059 on December 17. (http://www.latimes.com) About 114,700 workers were laid off between September 15 through December 29 directly or indirectly because of the September 11 attacks according to BLS estimates. BLS said one-third of those employers expect to call some workers back. (Wall Street Journal, page A1) For plenty of 2001 college graduates the waiting game persists. Numerous financial services concerns, management consultancies, and other employers delayed their starting dates for new grads hired last year. Then some postponed the start dates again. And again. Now, those delays are crimping the prospects for students finishing college this spring. (Wall Street Journal, page B-1) According to Scot Melland, President and CEO of Dice.com, a technology recruiting website, the salary gap between male and female technology professionals grew last year with men earning 12 percent more than women. The gap was greatest for system developers and database administrators, with women earning 25 percent and 22 percent less than men, respectively. (Wall Street Journal, page B-8) A surprisingly strong run of productivity growth appears to be continuing in 2002, an encouraging sign for the economy. Latest evidence comes from the Federal Reserve Board which reported that overall industrial production slipped by 0.1 percent in January, its smallest drop in six months. (Wall Street Journal, page A2) Brussels, Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- European industrial production rose in December for the first time in four months, a sign that the region's economy may be recovering from last year's slump. Factories, farms and mines in the 12 countries using the euro increased production by 0.8 percent from November, the European Union's statistics office said. From a year earlier, production fell 4.1 percent. (http://www.bloomberg.com) RELEASED TOMORROW: The Consumer Price Index and Real Earnings <>
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 2002 RELEASED TODAY: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in January, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 177.1 (1982-84=100), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. For the 12-month period ended in January, the CPI-U increased 1.1 percent. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also increased 0.2 percent in January, prior to seasonal adjustment. The January level of 173.2 was 0.9 percent higher than the index in January 2001. Real average weekly earnings fell by 0.5 percent from December to January after seasonal adjustment, according to preliminary data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. This decline was due to a 0.3 percent drop in average weekly hours and a 0.2 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Average hourly earnings were unchanged. Employers say that to avoid layoffs, they are more likely to eliminate overtime than resort to freezing or cutting salaries, according to a survey released by the Center for Survey Research and Analysis... (Daily Labor Report, page A-8). Findings in a not-yet-released government study of nursing home staffing reiterated what others before it have concluded -- more nurses and nurse aides would improve quality of care for patients. The draft study also suggested that a "requirement for minimum expenditures for nurse staffing" could boost the nursing workforce without necessitating minimum nursing requirements. (Daily Labor Report, page A-11). Spiraling health care costs remain a significant concern for employers, according to survey findings published by BNA, February 14, which show that all but a few organizations reported outlays for workers' health care coverage had increased over the previous year. In addition, half of the responding establishments faced "great increases" in health care expenses over the previous 12 months, while almost none was able to reduce health expenditures or hold them steady. (Daily Labor Report, page C-1). Nearly 25 percent, or 400,000, of the factory jobs eliminated in the last 1 1/2 years in the U.S.A. can be attributed to the sharp decline in exports of manufactured goods, according to a study to be released today by the National Association of Manufacturers. The decline in manufacturing exports was mostly attributed to the sharp rise in the value of the dollar, which makes exports more expensive and imports cheaper. (USA Today, page 1B). Bankruptcy filings surged 19% to a record 1.5 million last year, as businesses and consumers struggled under heavy debt loads during the economic slowdown. ... The economic slowdown produced a spate of corporate downsizings. In addition, many workers who rely on tips and overtime saw their incomes shrink, says President of SMR Research. And retirees who rely on interest income and earnings on investments were hammered by low interest rates and a stock market downturn. (The Washington Post, page E2, The New York Times, page C6). The male labor force participation rate -- the percentage of men 16 years or older who are working or are looking for a job -- fell to the lowest level on record in January at 73 percent. That was down more than 2 percentage points from 10 years ago and more than 13 percentage points from 1952. Women, however, have been increasing their presence in the workplace (USA Today, page 3B). The Northeast had the largest increase in workers losing their jobs in extended mass layoffs in the fourth quarter of 2001: the 65,305 layoffs were 70 percent more than those in the year-earlier quarter, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows. The South had a 40 percent increase in such layoffs, with 88,769. (The Wall Street Journal, page B3). A recently released Labor Department (BLS) survey shows how people in the Washington area spend their money. And it suggests that we are a region of people with high incomes who enjoy luxuries, yet have an underlying conservatism that makes spending patterns relatively traditional. Washingtonians, on average, are wealthy, but ordinary. .. Washingtonians drink, but don't smoke; eat out a lot and enjoy a good book; and spend more on fruits and vegetables than typical Americans, but less on meat. The article is based on the Consumer Expenditure Survey collected in 1999 and 2000. (The Washington Post, February 18, 2002, page E1). <>
BLS Daily Report, Thursday Feb. 21
Rising prices for gasoline contributed to a 0.2 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index in January, according to figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The increase brings the index to 177.1 (1982-84=100), after decreases in October, November, and December, BLS said (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). The inflation-adjusted earnings of U.S. workers declined by 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Real pay often declines during a recession as employers reduce hours and weaker demand for workers holds down wage increases. Since the recession began in March 2001, real weekly earnings have risen by a modest 1.4 percent. Without adjustment for inflation, weekly pay is up 2.1 percent since last March (Daily Labor Report, page D-19). Data from newly negotiated contract agreements, compiled by BNA through Feb. 18, show that the average first-year wage increase was 3.7 percent, the same as that in the comparable period of 2001. The median first-year increase for the same settlements was 3.5 percent. Among nonmanufacturing (excluding construction) settlements, the average increase was 4.2 percent, while manufacturing contracts posted an average increase of 2.3 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-24). Negotiated wage and benefit increases in the construction industry are expected to come in "at close to the 4 percent average rate for all contracts last year, according to the Construction Labor Research Council's bargaining outlook (Daily Labor Report, page A-2). The Labor Department will publish a new consumer price index beginning this summer to address some longstanding concerns that the current index overstates inflation. The new measure, called a "superlative" or "chained" consumer price index, is meant to better capture how consumers tend to shift purchases to products whose prices are falling in relative terms. It will supplement, but not replace, the current CPI, the most widely used measure of how a household's cost of living changes over time, the Labor Department said yesterday. Bureau of Labor Statistics research suggests annual inflation would be 0.1 to 0.2 percentage point lower measured with the new index. The new chained CPI will be published by BLS beginning with July's data in August (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). Higher prices for gasoline, medical care, and some food items contributed to a mild rise in consumer inflation in January, the government said yesterday. But prices for clothing, cars, lodging and computers all fell, providing shoppers with some bargains. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2 percent last month, meeting expectations, after dipping 0.1 percent in December, the Labor Department reported. Excluding energy and food prices, which can swing widely, the "core" rate of inflation increased 0.2 percent in January, up slightly from a 0.1 percent advance the month before (The New York Times, page C12). With energy costs declining sharply, consumer prices rose only 1.1 percent over the 12 months ended in January, the smallest increase since 1986, the Labor Department reported yesterday (The Washington Post, page E3). Many economists are raising their near-term forecasts for U.S. growth, citing the resiliency of consumer spending (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). One of the missing ingredients for a solid U.S. economic recovery this year--business spending on new plants, equipment and software--may be about to fall into place. The National Association of Manufacturers said yesterday that a survey of its members found that they plan to increase their capital spending throughout 2002, after a year of significant declines (The Washington Post, page E3). DUE OUT TOMORROW: State and Regional Unemployment, 2001 Annual Averages <>
BLS Daily Report, Friday Feb. 22
RELEASED TODAY: Annual average unemployment rates rose in more than half the states in 2001 for the first time since 1992, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The four census regions and nine geographical divisions all recorded rate increases. Employment-population ratios declined in 38 states and the District of Columbia. At the national level, the annual average jobless rate rose from 4.0 percent in 2000 to 4.8 percent in 2001, and the employment-population ratio decreased by 0.7 percentage point to 63.8 percent. New claims for unemployment insurance benefits for the week ending Feb. 16 totaled 383,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 373,000, the Employment and Training Administration reports. The less volatile, more closely watched four-week moving average increased 5,750 to 381,750 for the period ended Feb. 16, from the previous week's revised average of 376,000, ETA said (Daily Labor Report, page D-8). The index of leading economic indicators increased in January for the fourth consecutive month, suggesting that the recession may be ending. The 0.6 percent increase follows a revised 1.3 percent rise in December, according to the Conference Board, a New York-based research organization (Daily Labor Report, page D-11). The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services narrowed by 11.4 percent in December as exports edged up and imports declined, the Commerce Department reported Feb. 21 (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). A drop in imports helped cause the U.S. trade deficit to decline by $3.3 billion in December, to $25.3 billion, the Commerce Department said. The deficit was significantly less than department economists had assumed when they estimated that the economy grew at a meager 0.2 percent annual rate during the final three months of 2001. A number of analysts said the trade figure, coupled with other new data, means Commerce is likely to revise its estimate upward to 1 percent or better (The Washington Post, page E2). Despite growing signs that the economy is in recovery mode, the jobs pool continues to shrink and unemployed workers are exhausting jobless benefits in numbers not seen since the early 1970sAs the unemployment rolls grow, so do the number of workers who have collected unemployment benefits for 26 weeks, the limit on eligibility. The Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, a Washington think tank, estimates that nearly 81,000 workers are exhausting their benefits every week (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). A survey released by the National Association of Manufacturers found that 45 percent of its members expected to increase their capital spending in the first half of this year by as much as 5 percent, while 38 percent said they anticipated a continued decline in capital spending. The outlook for unemployment remains muddled. The unemployment rate has historically continued to rise for some months after a recession; after the last recession ended in March 1991, unemployment drifted up for 15 months, to 7.8 percent from 6.8 percent. The rate is now 5.6 percent. Some economists said the rate was likely to hit 6.5 percent before falling. Others said it would not rise much more. <>
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FEBRUARY 25, 2002: Starting in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to release a new measure called the superlative consumer price index, which is designed to come closer to a cost-of-living measure than the current index, BLS officials say. "We consider this a major development in our consumer price program," says John Greenlees, BLS associate commissioner for consumer prices. The superlative CPI -- to be known as the "C-CPI-U" -- will be a supplemental inflation measure, and will not replace either of the current CPIs. The new measure's name stands for "chained consumer price index for all urban consumers." Private economists, as well as policymakers at the Federal Reserve, have urged the BLS to offer a price measure that more closely approximates a true cost-of-living measure. BLS has been moving toward the publication of a superlative price index since additional funding was provided in the agency's fiscal 1998 budget. But the catch for some prospective users, Greenlees acknowledged, is that the new superlative index will be revised on a regular basis to reflect updated data on spending patterns. The two official CPIs are not often revised to reflect changes in purchase patterns. Because labor and commercial contracts often link increases in wages or other costs to the CPI, the bureau has avoided revisions that would cause difficulty for those users, he said. Revisions of the superlative index will be one year apart. Greenlees said the first estimates of the new index will be called the "initial" release; the second will be the "interim" release; the third will be the "final" release. So far, the agency's research shows that over the 10-year period from 1990 through 2000, the CPI-U and the superlative index tracked very closely. "In most months, the two measures are only one-tenth or two-tenths percent apart," he said. During that decade, the CPI-U rose by 20.8 percent while the superlative index increased by 19.5 percent, he said. Superlative index figures will not be seasonally adjusted until there is a long enough history to develop adjustment factors. Published data will show price changes for 28 items using a broad index for the U.S. city average. The index will have a 1999=100 reference base and will not be calculated for periods before December 1999 (Pam Ginsbach, Daily Labor Report, page A11, E8). Unemployment rates increased in more than half the states in 2001 for the first time since 1992, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says. Jobless rates were higher in 42 states in 2001. Nationally, the unemployment rate increased to 4.8 percent in 2001, from 4.0 percent in 2000. Employment population ratios -- the proportion of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years and over with a job -- dropped in 38 states and the District of Columbia, BLS said. The lowest annual unemployment rate for 2001 was in North Dakota, 2.8 percent, followed by Nebraska at 3.1 percent. In 2001, 30 states had unemployment rates below the national average, while 18 states and the District of Columbia reported higher rates, BLS said (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Looking toward the second quarter of this year, U.S. employers expect a modest increase in their hiring, notably in the beleaguered manufacturing sector, Manpower, Inc., reports. The Milwaukee-based temporary help firm reported that about 21 percent of the nearly 16,000 firms interviewed recently said they plan to add employees during the second quarter compared with only 16 percent in the first quarter. About 10 percent of employers said they expect layoffs in the second quarter. The 21 percent of employers who expect to add workers in the April-to-June period is still below the 28 percent who described such plans a year ago (Daily Labor Report, page A-10; Melissa McCord, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/268614p-2471998c.html). Data compiled by the Bureau of National Affairs in 2001 show that lump-sum payment provisions were in 11 percent of all nonconstruction contracts, down from 13 percent in 2000 and 15 percent in 1999, and below the high of 36 percent in 1988. The analysis is based on a database of 714 collective bargaining agreements covering more than 1,060,000 workers. Construction contracts were excluded because none contained lump-sum pay provisions. Further, holiday, vacation, and other such bonuses were not included in the analysis (Daily Labor Report, page D-4). Small business continues to grow. Its share of the private non-farm economy has increased to 52 percent over the past decade, according to a report by the Office of Advocacy of the Small Business Administration. The growth has been driven by the shift in the economy toward small business-dominated sectors, such as services. The study found that small businesses constitute 68 percent of services, 65 percent of wholesale and retail trade, and 27 percent of mining and manufacturing, the las
BLS Daily Report, Tuesday Feb. 26
North Carolina, at 5.5%, had the highest unemployment-rate increase among states last year from the year before, says the Bureau of Labor Statistics (The Wall Street Journal, page A1). The home-buying market remained strong in January, as existing home sales across the U.S. surged to a monthly record. The data got a lift from unusually warm weather and continuing low interest rates. Seasonally adjusted, existing homes sold at an annual rate of 6.04 million units in January, up 16.2% from 5.20 million units in December, according to the National Association of Realtors. January marked the first time the nation's home-sales rate exceeded six million units, and it outpaced the previous record of 5.49 million units in August 2001. In addition, January's strength was broad-based, as each of the nation's four regions reported record sales levels (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). Mild weather and low mortgage interest rates combined to produce the biggest January ever for home resales. Across the USA, existing homes sold during the month at an annualized rate of 6.04 million. The strong monthly sales pace, the first above six million, far exceeded economists' expectations and blew away the 5.49 million sales rate in August of last year. Prices in January were up sharply, too, the National Association of Realtors said. The sales midpoint in January of $151,100 is up 10.2% from January 2001 (The New York Times, page C10; and The Washington Post, page E3). <>
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 2002: Consumer confidence slipped this month after 2 months of gains, but it remains high enough to support "healthy consumer spending in the months ahead," the Conference Board said yesterday. The board, a New York-based research group, said its monthly confidence index fell to 94.1 this month from 97.8 in January. However, it was still well above its November low of 84.9. The two components of the index, consumers' assessment of current economic conditions and what they expect conditions to be 6 months from now, both fell (John M. Berry, The Washington Post, page E3). Consumer confidence stumbled in February, falling 3.7 percentage points from last month to 94.8 percent, despite evidence that the economy has begun to recover (Daily Labor Report, page A-12). Consumer confidence fell this month as concerns about unemployment and the reliability of company earnings reports dimmed enthusiasm that has been building since September, a private research group said yesterday. The decline in the Conference Board gauge of sentiment was larger than expected. More than 80 percent of those surveyed indicated they were concerned about jobs. The confidence index sank to its lowest level in 7 and 1/2 years in November, as Americans were still reeling from the September terrorist attacks (Bloomberg News, The New York Times, page C12). Americans' anxiety about the jobs outlook helped pull down consumer confidence in February, suggesting continued volatility as the economy seeks to pull itself out of recession. In January, the jobless rate dipped to 5.6 percent, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from December, according to the Labor Department. But that occurred because the labor force shrank by 924,000, and economists think the rate will rise again as cautious companies delay rehiring laid-off workers February figures are to be released next week (Associated Press, http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0202270366feb27.story). Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket goods rose a larger-than-expected 2.6 percent in January, suggesting the nation's battered manufacturing sector is edging toward a recovery. The solid advance in orders for durable goods -- costly manufactured items expected to last at least 3 years -- followed a 0.9 percent rise in December, the Commerce Department reported today. It was the third increase in the last 4 months. Many analysts had forecast a smaller, 1 percent rise in orders in January (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/271748p-2492211c.html). Industrial production fell in all regions in January, compared with a year earlier, but the rate of decline isn't nearly as steep as late last year, says The Wall Street Journal, page B7. Manufacturers are expected to boost production in the months ahead, because inventories are so low and retail sales are holding firm. Regions likely to stabilize first include those with a concentration of auto and related products such as steel and specialty textiles, including East South Central and Great Lakes states. But New England and western states, more dependent on technology products, especially telecommunications gear and semiconductors, are recovering slowly because of lackluster sales and high inventories. Particularly hard hit are smaller states with a dominant semiconductor sector. Consumer spending has held up beyond almost everyone's expectations, writes Louis Uchitelle in The New York Times, February 24, 2002, page 4, "Money & Business" section 3. Thanks to all the consumption, companies have run down their inventories of unsold goods to unusually low levels. Restocking is imminent, the forecasters say. The inflation rate is hardly noticeable -- price cutting has been widespread -- zero interest auto loans being only one example. Low interest rates have also encouraged spending. So have falling fuel prices. As rates fell, mortgage refinancing put billions of dollars into the pockets of home owners without raising their monthly payments. The problem is that none of these factors are likely to repeat themselves. And hourly wages, while still rising smartly in the fourth quarter, have begun to show signs of faltering as unemployment moves higher. "Wages are the last domino to fall," said Jared Bernstein, a labor economist at the Economic Policy Institute. "The progression is weak economic growth, rising unemployment, and then wages lose ground." Stephen S. Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, expresses some doubt that the "day is saved". Says he: "The numbers have broken to the upside temporarily. But that has happened in past recessions only to give way to fresh hard times. Skepticism should not be suspended". If you're unemployed and looking for a job, you may have to be a little more patient: The average time needed to find work is rising. It was 3.4 months in the fourth quarter of last year, up from 2.2 mon
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 28, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: Employers initiated 2,146 mass layoff actions in January 2002, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single establishment, and the number of workers involved totaled 263,821. The number of initial claimants for unemployment insurance was the highest for the month of January since the series began in April 1995. Today's BLS release on mass layoffs uses the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) for the assignment and tabulation of layoff data by industry. Previously, the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system was used. Thus, all industry data in this release differ from data previously published. The number of new U.S. jobless claims last week was smaller than expected at 378,000, the government said today, while the 4-week moving jobless claim average, a more reliable indicator of labor market trends, fell to its lowest level in more than 6 months. First-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose 17,000 in the February 23 week from a sharply downwardly revised 361,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said. The climb, however, was not as large as Wall Street expectations for a rise to 385,000 from the 383,000 originally reported for the February 16 week. The closely watched 4-week moving average, fell to 373,250 in the week ended February 23 from 376,250 in the previous week. This was its lowest level since 372,000 in the week of August 11, 2001 (Reuters, http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/2763930.htm). The U.S. economy, propelled by the biggest surge in consumer spending on big-ticket goods in 15 years, grew at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the final quarter of 2001, the government reported today. The bigger-than-expected increase in the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy's health, could mean that economists will date the end of the recession around the end of last year or the beginning of this year. The revised reading on fourth-quarter GDP as reported by the Commerce Department is much stronger than the 0.2 percent growth rate estimated by the government a month ago. Many economists were forecasting a revised 0.9 percent rate of advance in the GDP, which measures the total output of goods and services produced within the United States. The 1.4 percent growth rate marked the economy's strongest performance in a year and came after the economy shrank at a 1.3 percent rate in the third quarter. In another report, the Labor Department said new claims for unemployment benefits rose by 17,000 to 378,000 last week. But the more stable 4-week moving average of claims, which smoothes out week-to-week fluctuations, fell to a 6-month low of 373,250, a sign that the economy is improving. A factor contributing to the stronger fourth-quarter GDP was more brisk government spending, which rose at a rate of 10.1 percent compared with a 0.3 percent growth rate in the third quarter. And, the trade deficit in the fourth quarter was less of a drag on the economy than the government had previously thought. The deficit reduced fourth quarter GDP by 0.35 percentage point, rather than 0.85 percentage point as initially reported (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-020228econ.story?coll=chi%2Dbusin ess%2Dhed). "Wal-Mart stores has just passed Exxon Mobil to become the world's largest company by sales and will thus top the Fortune 500", begins Virginia Postrel, author of "The Future and Its Enemies" in The New York Times feature "Economic Scene", page C2. Postrel contends: "By making goods cheap and available, Wal-Mart has raised the standard of living of average Americans." She quotes from a study made by McKinsey Global Institute, the research arm of the McKinsey consulting firm, which says "Surprisingly, the primary source of the productivity gains of 1995 to 1999 was not increased demand resulting from the stock market bubble, as some economists have claimed. Nor was information technology the source, though companies accelerated the pace of their I.T. investments during those years. Rather , managerial and technological innovations in only 6 highly competitive industries -- wholesale trade, retail trade, securities, semiconductors, computer manufacturing and telecommunications -- were the important causes." Competition and better management, not simply the spread of computers and the Internet, made the difference. Nowhere is that clearer than in retailing, Postrel continues. From 1987 to 1995, labor productivity grew an average of 1 percent a year. From 1995 to 1999, it grew 2.3 percent a year. This big jump, combined with increased employment, meant that real output per capita grew nearly 4 percent a year -- an extraordinarily fast rate comparable with th
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, MARCH 1, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: In May 2001, 19.8 million persons usually did some work at home as part of their primary job, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These workers, who reported working at home at least once per week, accounted for 15 percent of total employment. These findings are from a special supplement to the May 2001 Current Population Survey (CPS). The CPS is a monthly survey of households conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for BLS. Data on work at home were last collected in the CPS in May 1997; however, due to changes in the questions asked, much of the data for May 2001 is not comparable with the May 1997 data. In 2001, half of those who usually worked at home were wage and salary workers who took work home from the job on an unpaid basis. Another 17 percent had a formal arrangement with their employer to be paid for the work they did at home. The remainder who worked at home -- 30 percent -- were self-employed. Mass layoff events totaled 2,146 in January resulting in job losses for 263,821 workers, according to figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of initial claimants for unemployment insurance was the highest for the month of January since the series began in April 1995. The number of mass layoff events dropped from December, when 2,440 events resulted in 268,893 initial claimants, according to BLS (Daily Labor Report, page D-15). New claims for unemployment insurance benefits during the week ending February 23 totaled 378,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 361,000, according to figures from the Employment and Training Administration (Daily Labor Report, page D-12). The help-wanted advertising index was unchanged in January, standing at the December index level of 47, the Conference Board says. The index was 77 a year ago. Help-wanted advertising increased in six of the nine U.S. regions in the last 3 months, the Conference Board reports. The Mountain region, which includes Denver, Phoenix, and Salt Lake City, increased 28.8 percent. The East South Central region, which includes Birmingham, Knoxville, Louisville, Memphis, and Nashville, saw a 10.1 percent increase (Daily Labor Report, page A-9). The U.S. economy bounced back from the shock of the September 11 terrorist attacks to grow at a much faster rate in the final 3 months of last year than initially estimated, the Commerce Department reported yesterday. Fueled in large part by consumer spending, the nation's economic output rose at a 1.4 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, the department said, sharply revising the earlier estimate of a meager 0.2 percent annual growth rate. Even though economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research said a recession officially began last spring, the new figures indicate that overall economic activity declined only in the third quarter of last year (John M. Berry, The Washington Post, page A1). "What drove up consumer spending in the fourth quarter, and is still driving it up, was zero-percent financing, price discounts, tax rebates, and huge promotional pricing for big-ticket items," says James W. Paulsen, a senior economist at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis (Louis Uchitelle, The New York Times, page C2). As recessions go, the one that officially started last year appears to be one of the strangest. A few economists, in fact, aren't even sure a recession occurred. Their argument was bolstered by the Commerce Department's revision of fourth quarter economic growth. The department now figures the economy grew at a 1.4 percent annual rate, up from the government's previous estimate of 0.2 percent, thanks to surprisingly strong consumer spending on automobiles and other products (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). Consumers spent briskly in January, as their incomes rose solidly, the Commerce Department reported today. The news was a fresh sign that the U.S. economy, shaken by the recession and terrorist attacks, is on the road to recovery. Spending by consumers, which accounts for two-thirds of all economy activity in the United States, rose 0.4 percent last month after being flat in December. At the same time Americans' incomes, which include wages, interest, and government benefits, also increased by 0.4 percent, the largest advance in 6 months. Incomes rose 0.3 percent in December (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-020301econ.story). U.S. consumer spending posted a robust gain in January, 0.4 percent, its best showing since October. Income growth kept pace, climbing by 0.4 percent in the month. Disposable income -- income minus taxes -- grew a hefty 1.6 percent, boosted by changes in January tax withholding made as a result of income tax cuts enacted last year. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected income to post a smaller 0.1 percent gain, and spending to see a 0.3 percent in
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, MARCH 4, 2002: About 15 percent of the workforce worked at home during May 2001, as a part of their primary job responsibilities, a total of 19.8 million people, according to figures released March 1 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Two-thirds say they work at home at least once a week because it's simply the nature of the job or because they need to finish or catch up on work. Half of workers performing job duties from home were wage and salary workers who took work home from their job on an unpaid basis. Another 17 percent had previous/ arrangements with their employers to be paid for the work they did at home. The remaining 30 percent were self-employed (Daily Labor Report, page D-7). Employee benefits made up more than one-third of the total cost of company payrolls n 2000, with health insurance as the highest single benefit cost, according to a nationwide study released by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Employee benefits cost employers an additional 37.5 percent over wages in 2000, or an average of $16,617 per employer, according to the chamber's "2001 Employee Benefits Study". The chamber's study analyzed year 2000 benefit practices of surveyed employers. The 456 companies surveyed, which included both chamber members and nonmembers who voluntarily participated in the survey, collectively employed approximately 787,346 full-time equivalent workers. Benefits varied significantly among companies, according to the survey, with one in 10 paying more than 45.2 percent of its payroll for benefits and an equal number of companies paying less than 20.4 percent for benefits. The top 10 percent of companies had an average benefit cost of $21,774 per employee, while the lower 10 percent paid an average of $5,850 (Daily Labor Report, page A-2). The U.S. economy not only has begun to grow again after last year's slump, but it also is apparently doing so far more quickly than even the most optimistic forecasters were expecting just a few weeks ago, according to several economic reports released March 1. The strength of the latest figures, showing recent gains in manufacturing, consumer spending, and construction sent stocks soaring and surprised analysts -- who were already busy marking up their predictions for growth in the first 3 months of this year (John M. Berry, in The Washington Post, March 2, page 1). Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan says the recession is ending. So do most private economists. So how come it's so hard to find a job? Manpower, Inc., the big staffing company, reported last week that hiring is still tepid in the Washington area, despite signs that an economic recovery is afoot. the firm surveyed area companies about their hiring plans for the spring and 15 percent said they would recruit more workers during April, May, and June. Meanwhile, 14 expect to cut jobs in the same period (The rest either anticipated no changes or were not sure). On Wednesday the Labor Department is to release January employment data -- the number of jobs in each state in several categories, along with the unemployment rate and other data -- for each state and the District. A week later it is to release the same data for the Washington area which includes the District and suburban counties (The Washington Post, page E6). The corporate computer services market is now larger than the market for computer hardware and is expected to keep growing, according to the International Data Corp. A graph showing the amount of money spent on computer shows about $375 million in 2000, $400 million in 2001 and projected $425 million for 2002 (The New York Times, page C5). <>
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, MARCH 5, 2002: At least 125,000 American workers lost their jobs in mass layoffs that lasted 30 days or more because of the September 11 terrorist attacks, according to a recent Bureau of Labor Statistics report. "It's pretty substantial," said Lewis Siegel, a senior economist with BLS and the manager of the agency's statistical program on mass layoffs, which asked employers participating in its regular layoff reports whether the attacks contributed to large-scale job losses. Employers in 33 states cited the attacks in 430 separate layoffs involving more than 50 workers each, the BLS said. The majority of the layoffs took place within weeks of September 11, with job losses tapering off since then. Transportation and hotel workers were most effected, the agency said. Siegel said that the terrorism impact has declined in recent weeks as the economy rebounded. About a third of the employers say they intended to rehire workers as conditions improve. Airline industry observers said it is already happening (The Washington Post, page E2; http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A38326-2002Mar4.html). The Wall Street Journal's "Work Week" feature (page A1) carries this item: "Happy New Year: Big employers laid of 263,800 workers in January, compared with 200,300 workers a year earlier, says the Labor Department, which tracks layoffs of 50 or more people." Layoff announcements at U.S. firms fell 40 percent in February from January, but the number of job cuts was still too high to signal a rebound in the job market, Challenger, Gray & Christmas said Tuesday. The outplacement firm said job cuts announced in February totaled 128,115, down from 212,704 layoff announcements in January. But it said any number over 100,000 indicates employers "are still focused on contraction" (Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-03-05-layoffs.htm). New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that 52 percent of the 19.8 million Americans who say they work at home at least once a week aren't being paid for it, says The Wall Street Journal feature "Work Week" (page A1). Of those, about 9 million say work at home is either necessary for catch-up or "the nature of the job". The study, taken from surveys of 50,000 households in May 2001, found managerial, professional and sales workers made up the bulk of workers taking it home. Average job tenure fell to 7 years in 2001 from 8 years in 2000 and 9 in 1999, says a survey of about 2,900 of its laid-off clients by outplacement concern Drake Beam Morin (The Wall Street Journal, "Work Week" feature, page A1). A key gauge of activity in the massive U.S. services sector recovered in February, after an unexpected contraction in the previous month, according to a report released Tuesday. The Institute for Supply Management, an industry trade group, said its monthly non-manufacturing index rose sharply to 58.7 percent in February, its highest level since November 2000, from the previous month's unexpected fall to 49.6 percent. February's reading, which far exceeded market expectations, was well above the 50 percent level, indicating expansion in the sector which includes everything from transportation to legal and financial services. The market expected a rise in the index to 51.4 percent (Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-03-05-service.htm). While many large companies have cut back on employee training as a result of the sagging economy, smaller firms continue to make the investment, according to a survey of workplace trends by American Society for Training and Development. It found that small and medium size firms expected to increase spending on employee training from 2000 to 2001. But many large companies with 2,000 or more employees that were hit hard by the economic downturn planned to trim their training budgets, at least through 2002. The survey report is based on the responses of 376 of 1,100 companies that responded to the ASTD questionnaire. The survey was conducted in two parts throughout 2001 (Daily Labor Report, page A-1). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment: January 2002 <>
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, MARCH 6, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: In January, most regional and state unemployment rates either declined or were little changed over the month, but were higher than a year earlier, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The national jobless rate decreased to 5.6 percent in January. Nonfarm employment increased in 30 states. (Employment and unemployment data for Michigan, and therefore the East North Central division and the Midwest region, were not available at the time of release). Several state legislatures approved major changes in workers' compensation laws during 2001, including coverage of security personnel in the recent Winter Olympic games, according to an article in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' January "Monthly Labor Review". BLS economist Glenn Whittington describes state coverage changes, as well as increases in some benefits levels. The article provides a state-by-state summary of last year's significant changes in workers' compensation laws (Daily Labor Report, page A-2; article in E-1). William C. Barron, acting director of the U.S. Census Bureau, will retire this summer after 34 years as a federal employee to accept a one-year appointment as a professor at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. Most of his career was spent at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and for 15 years Barron was deputy commissioner of labor statistics. In 1998, Barron, 56, left BLS to become deputy undersecretary of commerce to oversee planning and budgeting for the 2000 Census. He became deputy director of the Census Bureau in May 1999 and then acting director when Kenneth Prewitt resigned in January 2001. (The Washington Post, page A17). Orders to U.S. factories rose by 1.6 percent in January, lifted by stronger demand for cars, computers and machinery, providing new evidence that the battered manufacturing sector is turning a corner. The advance followed a 0.7 percent rise in December and was the third increase in the last 4 months, the Commerce Department reported today. A host of recent economic reports has indicted the recession, which began in March 2001, has probably ended and will be recorded as one of the mildest in U.S. history (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-020406econ.story). If you were one of the 7.9 million Americans looking for work in January, there's probably very little doubt in your mind that the economy was -- or at least had been -- in a recession. But for the 141.4 million who never lost their jobs, this recession may have come and gone so quickly that they didn't even notice (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/286012p-2561158c.html). "If this recession has now ended -- as most economists, including Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan apparently think -- then there will be a supreme irony in its passing. What has transfixed Americans these past few years has been the so-called New Economy, with its dazzling technologies, its visions of instant riches, and its astronomical stock market valuations," writes Robert J. Samuelson in The Washington Post (page A19). But spending on housing, automobiles, furniture, toys, fast food, physicians and dentists -- almost every thing that is routine and unrevolutionary -- has rescued the economy from the collapsed investment in telecom networks and dot-com and from the depressing effects of fallen stock prices. Samuelson quotes Susan Sterne of Economic Analysis Associates as saying "this consumer recession was almost entirely a travel recession" -- terrorism's aftershock. Luggage sales declined 2.1 percent; hotel and motel spending was down 12.7 percent. Greenspan said he expected any recovery to be "subdued". New York City lost far more jobs last year than anyone (except maybe the unemployed) realized: almost 36,000 more than the state's original estimate of 96,500, according to a new tally released yesterday by the State Department of Labor. The new data, which have been revised to reflect information from corporate unemployment tax filings, show that the city lost 132,400 jobs last year, up by one-third from the Labor Department's original estimate. The drop is the steepest since 1991, which was the worse year of the recession that lasted from 1989 through 1992. Most of the loss reflects the economic aftershocks of the attack on the World Trade Center. But the new data also show that the national recession hit New York's services sector slightly earlier, and a lot harder, than economists realized. But there were some bright spots in the data. For one thing, the number of jobs on Wall Street last year was revised upward by 10,000, to 175,500 (The New York Times, page A21). With corporate profits and many stock prices down, pay for the chief executives of large companies fell slightly last year, according to a survey by Pearl Meyer & Partners, a
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, MARCH 7, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported revised fourth-quarter seasonally-adjusted annual rates of productivity change -- as measured by output per hour of all persons -- and revised annual changes for the full year 2001. Percent changes in business and nonfarm business productivity were: Business sector, 5.1 for the fourth quarter; 1.9 annual average, 2000-2001; nonfarm business sector, 5.2 for the fourth quarter, 1.9 annual average, 2000-2001. In both sectors, fourth-quarter productivity was higher than originally reported due to upward revisions to the output measures. In the manufacturing sector, increases in productivity were: Manufacturing sector, 4.1 percent for the fourth quarter, 1.1 annual average 2000-2001; Durable goods manufacturing sector, 2.7 percent fourth quarter, 0.5 annual average 2000-2001; nondurable goods manufacturing, 5.2 fourth quarter, 1.6 annual average 2000-2001. The productivity of U.S. workers rocketed past expectations in the final 3 months of last year to post the biggest increase since the second quarter of 2000, the government said today. The Labor Department said productivity, or worker output of goods and services per hour outside the farm sector, rose at a 5.2 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, revised upward from an initial estimate of 3.5 percent. The increase surpassed analysts' expectations for a 4.5 percent rise (Reuters, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A53802-2002Mar7.html). Unemployment rates decreased in 26 states in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. North Dakota reported the lowest unemployment rate for the ninth consecutive month, 2.8 percent. Oregon and Washington reported the highest rates -- 8.0 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively. No state's jobless rate has been as high as 8.0 percent since July 1997, BLS says (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). The number of American workers lining up for state unemployment benefits fell last week, the government said today, in a report providing yet more evidence the U.S. economy is on a firmer footing. In addition, the 4-week moving average, seen as a more reliable labor market gauge because it smoothes out weekly fluctuations, dropped to pre-Sept. 11 levels. "Layoffs are heading back down...which makes sense as the economy is turning," said Jim Glassman, senior economist at J.P. Morgan. "The airline and hotel industries are getting back on their feet" (http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/2811342.htm). New claims for unemployment insurance for the work week ending March 2 fell by a seasonally adjusted 5,000 to 376,000, the Labor Department reports. Claims peaked last year on September 9 at 535,000, and have remained below 400,000 so far this year. In a separate report today, the Labor Department said worker productivity grew at an even faster pace in the fourth quarter of last year than previously indicated. Productivity, which is the amount of output per hour of work increased at an annual rate of 5.2 percent in the October-December quarter. That compares with the 3.5 percent previously reported for the quarter. For the entire year, productivity increased just 1.9 percent compared with 3.3 percent in all of 2000 (Leigh Strope, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/288533p-2572704c.html). Economic activity remains mixed throughout the country, but a majority of the Federal Reserve's 12 district banks said there are signs that conditions have been improving, the central bank reports. Although the labor markets have continued to soften in most districts, the tone of the Federal Reserve's latest "Beige Book" report suggests that activity in the retail, manufacturing and banking sectors was bottoming out. Some of the most encouraging signs have come from retailers in the Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Kansas City districts, who reported that sales were higher in early 2002 than they were a year ago (Daily Labor Report, page D-9; The Washington Post, page E2; The New York Times, page C1; The Wall Street Journal, page A2; USA Today, page 3B; Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-03-06-beige-book.htm). As the recovery builds, the less educated go to the end of the employment line, says Alan B. Krueger, Bendheim Professor of Economics and Public Affairs, Princeton University, and editor of "The Journal of Economic Perspectives" in The New York Times (page C2). He points out that when Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, who will appear before the Senate Banking Committee today, commented on the possibility of the end of the recession, he did not mention that the lingering effects of high unemployment early in a recovery tend to be concentrated among the unskilled and minorities. This is true even though recessions are becoming more egalitarian. An accompanying graph shows that in the early part of the latest recession, job prospects deteriorated more
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, MARCH 8, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.5 percent in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Nonfarm payroll employment was up by 66,000 in February, following several months of large job losses. February gains in several industries, however, can be attributed to special factors. Manufacturing employment continued to decline, although at a slower pace. The rapid turnaround in the U.S. economy reached the nation's job market last month as payroll employment rose for the first time in seven months, the jobless rate ticked down and the number of industries adding workers continued to rise, the Labor Department reported today. After digging into the details of today's report, a number of analysts said the unemployment rate might well increase again somewhat in coming months as employers concentrate on using their current employees more intensively in order to hold down costs and boost profits. Meanwhile, the increase in average hourly earnings of workers has slowed, the department said. Last month hourly earnings rose two cents to $14.63. That was 3.7 percent higher than the figure a year ago and the smallest increase for a 12-month period since that ending in September 2000. (http://www.washingtonpost.com) The nation's unemployment rate unexpectedly slipped to 5.5 percent in February as businesses, after slashing payrolls for six straight months, added 66,000 new workers. It was the strongest signal yet that the country's first recession in a decade is over. The Labor Department reported Friday that the jobless rate dropped by 0.1 percentage point in February to the lowest level since October. Before the report was released, private economists had been looking for the jobless rate to rise by 0.1 percentage point. The addition of 66,000 jobs during the month followed losses that had averaged 146,000 a month since the recession started in March 2001. It was the largest payroll increase since February 2001. In the jobs report, the largest increases last month occurred in retail, though Labor Department economists stressed caution in interpreting the numbers as a sign of strength in that industry. Retail businesses added 58,000 jobs in February. Large seasonal layoffs always occur in retailing in January and February following the holiday-season buildup. But holiday hiring last year was well below normal, so there were fewer workers to lay off. (http://www.boston.com) Economists had forecast an unemployment rate of 5.8 percent and little change in payrolls, according to Briefing.com. The report was especially surprising because the unemployment rate typically lags the rest of the economy, worsening even as the economy recovers because businesses usually delay hiring until they're convinced a rebound is underway. The unemployment rate also fell in January, but some economists attributed the drop to a shrinking labor force, since it seemed some workers had stopped looking for jobs, taking themselves out of the labor force. But the labor force grew by 821,000 in February, making the drop in the unemployment rate much more meaningful. What's more, the number of people who still want a job but haven't looked for one in four weeks - meaning they're no longer counted as part of the labor force - fell by 449,000. But some economists still were hesitant to read too much into the report, expressing skepticism that the labor market could possibly be bouncing back so soon. (http://cnn.com) Nonfarm business productivity increased at an annual rate of 5.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2001 because of upward revisions to the output measures, according to revised figures released March 7 by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics. The increase was much stronger than economists had expected in the midst of a recession. In testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the revised fourth quarter productivity numbers were "suspiciously too strong." The surprisingly strong fourth quarter gain "was not only remarkably robust, but very unlikely," Greenspan said. "But if you smooth out fluctuations in the data over the long term, you will see that fundamental changes have occurred" that will allow productivity to continue to grow at a faster rate than it did in the 1980s and early 1990s, he said. (Daily Labor Report, page D-1) U.S. workers and companies are emerging from the economic contraction leaner and more productive than earlier thought, according to new data from the Labor Department. Nonfarm productivity--a measure of output per hour worked-- grew by an annualized 5.2 percent in the final three months of 2001, up from a previous estimate of 3.5 percent, the department said. For all of 2001, productivity grew by 1.9 percent, down from 3.3 percent in 2000 and 2.6 percent in the late 1990s, but still regarded by economists
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, MARCH 11, 2002: Providing the strongest evidence so far that the U.S. economy is pulling out of recession, U.S. employers added 66,000 workers to nonfarm payrolls in February, on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It was the first job growth since last July. The civilian unemployment rate edged down 0.1 percentage point to 5.5 percent in February, leaving it 0.3 percentage point below what could turn out to be the recession's peak level of 5.8 percent posted last December. "This economy is much more resilient than most people thought it was," says Bank One Chief Economist Diane Swonk (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). The nation's job market improved last month as companies added more workers than they cut for the first time in 7 months, nudging the jobless rate down and providing another sign that the U.S. economy is rapidly turning around. The nation's unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 5.5 percent, down only slightly from January's 5.6 percent but more noticeably below the recent peak of 5.8 percent reached in December, the Labor Department reported yesterday. Most analysts had thought the jobless rate might go up rather than down because a majority of employers are likely to be cautious in rehiring workers laid off during last year's recession. But last month the number of workers on private and government payrolls rose by 66,000, the first increase in several months and the largest gain since the recession began a year ago. The rising number of jobs in construction, retail trade, services and government more than offset another 50,000-job drop in factory payrolls (John M. Berry, The Washington Post, March 9, page E1). Companies added workers to their payrolls in February for the first time in 9 months, the government said yesterday, the strongest evidence yet that the economy is emerging from the recession. With consumer spending continuing to increase and service companies hiring workers, the economy created 66,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.5 percent from 5.6 percent in January, according to the Labor Department's seasonally adjusted numbers. Airlines added employees in February for the first time since May, and hospitals and medical offices continued to show strong growth. Temporary-help agencies, often a leading indicator of the economy's health, ended a 16-month streak of cutting employment. While manufacturing, the sector hardest hit by the downturn, continued to pare jobs, the loss was the smallest since late 2000 (David Leonhardt, The New York Times, March 9, page B1). The job market's 7-month collapse appears to be over, adding to growing optimism about an economic recovery. In recent weeks, the consensus among economists has been that unemployment would continue to rise, even as economic growth returns. But on Friday, the Labor Department threw a curve ball: Employers added 66,000 more jobs in February than they cut, the first gain since July and the most sizable gain since February 2001 (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). U.S. wholesalers pared back inventories for the 8th consecutive month in January, while sales posted their largest rise since June 2000, the government said Monday in a report showing further signs an economic recovery may be underway. The Commerce Department said stocks of unsold goods on wholesalers' shelves fell 0.2 percent in January, to $287.7 billion after falling a revised 0.5 percent in December. The dip in Inventory levels was slightly smaller than the 0.4 percent drop expected by analysts (Reuters, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A7597-2002Mar11.html). The U.S. economy is breaking out of recession with unexpected speed and may grow at a 3.7 percent rate in the second half of this year, according to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey. The consensus forecast calls for gross domestic product to increase in the first quarter of this year at a 2.6 percent annual rate, compared with 1.6 percent in last month's forecast. The most optimistic economists said first-quarter growth would exceed 4 percent, the fastest pace in almost 2 years. The economy grew at a 1.4 percent rate in the fourth quarter of 2001 (http://www.latimes.com/business/la-17929mar11.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines %2Dbusiness). In another sign that the economic slump may be easing, announced job cuts hit their lowest level in 8 months, according to the Chicago-based outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which has tracked job cuts since 1993. Still, the six-figure job cuts underscore what many economists have been warning: Unemployment will get worse before it gets better. The rate, currently at 5.6 percent, is expected to top out at 6 or 6.5 percent by the middle of the year. Telecommunications was the industry hardest hit in February, with nearly 36,000 planned cuts (http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0311/p16s01-wmgn.html)
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, MARCH 12, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: From 1999 to 2000, multifactor productivity rose 1.9 percent in the private business sector and 1.8 percent in the private nonfarm business sector, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Multifactor productivity increased for the ninth consecutive year in both the private business and private nonfarm business sectors. The 1999-2000 rates of increase were the highest since 1992. Amid signs of a strengthening job market, some Americans laid off as a result of the September 11 terrorist attacks have found work again, says Kemba J. Dunham in The Wall Street Journal (page B10). It is difficult to track precisely how many people lost their jobs as a result of September 11. Lewis Siegel, a U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics analyst, says about 126,000 Americans were laid off between September 15 and January 12 in cuts directly or indirectly tied to the attacks. The figure solely covers layoffs lasting more than 30 days and involving more than 50 people at the same company. Equally elusive is the number of September 11 layoff victims who found new jobs. But a spokesman for New York City's Human Resources Administration says his agency held four Twin Towers Job Expos in October through January. Out of the 27,000 people who attended the job fairs (a figure that includes serial attendees) at least 1,300 subsequently found jobs. Some businesses damaged by the September 11 attacks have begun to rehire their laid-off staffers. In 2000, 55 percent of mothers with children under 1 year old were working or looking for work, according to the U.S. Census Bureau (USA Today, page 1B; http://www.usatoday.com/money/covers/2002-03-12-stay-home-moms.htm). That's down from 1998, when the labor force participation rate was almost 60 percent, and the first decrease since at least 1976. The percentage of women who worked during their first pregnancy also has shown its first leveling off since 1961. And the number of working, married women with children under 3 also has stalled, going from an annual average of 4 million in 1999 to 39 million in 2000, according to the Department of Labor. Top ranking U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve officials on Tuesday expressed hope the economy is in the midst of rebounding from the shallow recession it entered last year. "I am happy to say that the United States is now coming out of the recent slowdown. The fourth quarter of last year showed positive real (gross domestic product) and recent data on production and employment indicate that the U.S. economy has turned the corner," said John Taylor, Treasury's Under Secretary for International Affairs. Taylor was speaking at the Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce in Fortaleza, Brazil. Those sentiments were echoed by Federal Reserve Governor Mark Olson during a speech to a thrift trade group here (http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/2843943.htm). Friday's positive job numbers didn't seem to help those unemployed the longest. While the number of unemployed for 14 weeks or less fell 4 percent to 5.3 million, those unemployed 15 or more weeks saw their numbers grow 0.6 percent to 2.6 million. They now make up about a third of the unemployed compared with about 25 percent a year ago. Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp., Cleveland, speculates that many companies wait as long as possible to lay off essential personnel, who are then the first hired back when the outlook improves (The Wall Street Journal's "Work Week" feature, page A1). Of 150 executives at big companies, 84 say they expect to increase staffing this year, says a survey by the consulting firm Accenture Ltd. But of these 84, about two-thirds said they expect to hire fewer than 1,000 workers (The Wall Street Journal's "Work Week" feature, page A1). Places to move? Hawaii and South Dakota reported the biggest unemployment-rate drops in January from December, says the Bureau of Labor Statistics (The Wall Street Journal's "Work Week" feature, page A1). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment: January 2002 <>
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, MARCH 13, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: In January, 276 metropolitan areas recorded higher unemployment rates than a year earlier, 42 areas had lower rates, and 4 areas had rates that were unchanged, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Fifteen metropolitan areas had jobless rates of at least 10.0 percent, nine of which were located in California and three along the Mexican border in other states. Twelve areas posted rates below 3.0 percent, with six of these in the South and five in the Midwest (Data for the nine metropolitan areas in Michigan were not available at the time of release). Federal aid for college attendance now consists of loans or tax credits, points out Richard Rothstein, writing in The New York Times (page A17). But expansion of higher education faces two obstacles. First, low-income families who would benefit from scholarships have little political influence. And second, the economic rationale for producing more college graduates is murky. As a matter of social justice, low-income students should be able to compete with those from the middle class for the better jobs that require college degrees. But the number of such jobs is not expanding as fast as many people think. The Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasts that from 2000 to 2010, 21 percent of job vacancies will require bachelor's degrees and that by 2010, about 29 percent of young people will finish college. But the retiring baby boom generation is so big that it will take a larger share of young workers to replace the retirees whose jobs require college. So the projected rate of college attendance should produce about as many new degrees as there will be positions requiring them. But this balance will disappear if colleges expand much further. In the late 1970's after colleges grew to absorb the baby boomers, there was a surplus of college graduates. Many took jobs requiring only high school skills. The bureau says this trend continued into the 1980's and 1990's, with many college graduates still holding jobs that really require only a high school education. Some of these were middle-aged workers who had lost jobs in corporate downsizing or in aerospace reductions as the cold war ended. These laid-off employees did not have the flexibility to adapt to new jobs and they demanded higher salaries than new college graduates. So while older graduates took jobs requiring only high school degrees, more young graduates were still being hired. Employers apparently took advantage of this surplus in professional, technical and managerial workers by reducing wage offers. A steady drop in average pay for college educated workers from the 1970's to the mid-1990's is evidence of this. In the late 1990's, wages for college graduates again began to rise. There may now be more demand for college graduates, but the data are not strong enough to justify a big expansion of higher education on economic grounds alone. It will have to be a matter of social justice, and this complicates the political prospects for increased university capacity and for financial aid. Employment prospects will remain weak through the spring, but employees appear to face less risk of job loss than they did 3 months ago, according to the Bureau of National Affairs' latest quarterly employment survey. Production/service hiring opportunities may improve slightly in the second quarter, but white-collar workers' prospects will decline even further. Moreover, job opportunities for all three employee groups covered by the survey are much dimmer than they were just a few quarters ago. In contrast, layoff plans are down compared with recent quarters (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). After a tightfisted January, shoppers opened their wallets and pocketbooks in February, pushing sales at the nation's retailers up by 0.3 percent. The advance, the largest in 4 months, came after Americans trimmed their spending by 0.3 percent in January, reflecting in large part a drop in spending on cars and trucks as free-financing offers waned, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Although the 0.3 percent rise in February was smaller than many economists were forecasting, the fact that spending went up should be an encouraging sign. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of all economic activity in the United States (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nypost.com/apstories/business/V1874.htm). The use of flexible pay soared during the 1990s. Companies compensated employees with bonuses and stock options. That enabled them to share the good times with workers -- while preserving their ability to slash costs in bad times by rolling back the special pay. David Lewin, a business professor at the University of California at Los Angeles estimates that 66 percent of U.S. workers got variable pay last year, up from 30 percent a decade earlier. There's growing evidence that companies cut fewer workers in the recessio
BLS Daily Report
BLS Daily Report, Thursday, March 14, 2002 RELEASED TODAY: The U.S. Import Price Index decreased 0.1 percent in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The decline followed a 0.4 percent increase in January and was attributable to a decline in nonpetroleum prices. The Export Price Index was down 0.2 percent in February, the fifth consecutive decrease for this index. The deficit in the nation's broadest measure of trade narrowed slightly to $417.4 billion last year, although it was the second highest imbalance on record, the Commerce Department said today. Last year's current account trade deficit, measuring the flow of not just goods and services but also investment across the U.S. border, was down by 6.1 percent from the all-time high of $444.7 billion set in 2000. It marked the first time that the current account had shown an improvement since a 7 percent decline to $109.9 billion in 1995. In another report, the Commerce Department said that businesses rebuilt inventories by 0.2 percent in January, the first increase in inventories in a year and another encouraging sign that the country's first recession in a decade has come to an end. Analysts see the rebuilding of inventories as a crucial development in lifting the country out of recessions. In a third report, the Labor Department said that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell by 3,000 last week to 377,000. (Martin Crutsinger, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/303137p-2642587c.html). New claims for state unemployment insurance dropped by 15,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 376,000, the Labor Department said today. The decline for the work week ending February 2 followed a revised 31,000 jump in claims the week before. Jobless claims slowly have been declining since peaking October 20 at 507,000. Last week's level was the lowest since January 19. The more stable 4-week moving average of new claims, which smoothes out week-to-week fluctuations, fell last week to 380,500, the lowest level since August 18. There have been growing signs that the nation's first recession in a decade is ending, and the Federal Reserve resisted cutting interest rates last week after doing so 11 times in 2001. But the job market will be the slowest to recover, and economists think the unemployment rate will continue to rise into the summer to as high as 6.5 percent. That's because the level of job growth in the early stages of the recovery probably will not be enough to accommodate new workers as they enter the job market (Leigh Strope, Associated Press). An important gauge of U.S. economic activity rose in January for the fourth consecutive month, suggesting the nation's economic turnaround is on solid footing and could be stronger than expected. The New York-based Conference Board said today that its Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.6 percent in January to 112.2 following a revised 1.3 rise in December. The reading met analysts' expectations. "Given this string of strong increases, the cumulative rise in the index over the past 6 months...suggests gathering economic momentum," said the board's economist, Ken Goldstein. "The strong signal from the indicators is that the recession is ending and that the recovery could be more vigorous than earlier anticipated" (Lisi de Bourbon, Associated Press). A measure of U.S. manufacturing activity rose for the first time in a year and a half in February, as a rise in orders and increased production helped lift the bruised sector out of its slump. The Tempe, Ariz.-based Institute for Supply Management, formerly known as the National Association of Purchasing Management, said its index of business activity rose to 54.7 in February from 49.9 in January. Analysts had been expecting a reading above 50 for the first time since July 2000. An index above 50 signifies expansion, while a figure below 50 shows contraction (Lisi de Bourbon, Associated Press). U.S. business inventories rose for the first time in a year in January, and sales rose too, the government said today. Total business sales rose 1.1 percent on the month after posting an unchanged outcome in December. Sales at manufacturers rose 2.0 percent (Reuters, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A26041-2002Mar14.html). The nation's arbiter of recessions said that the economy may be turning the corner, adding official weight to recent upbeat economic data and the growing consensus among economists that a recovery is underway. The nonprofit National Bureau of Economic Research stopped short of declaring the recession over, but the group, which pinpoints the peaks and valleys of the U.S. business cycle, cited the improving employment picture as evidence that the downturn may be ending. The Labor Department reported last week that the nation added 66,000 jobs in February, the first employment gain in 7 months. Also noting improvements in manufacturing, sales,
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, MARCH 18, 2002: Producer prices increased 0.2 percent in February, following a 0.1 percent increase in January, according to figures released March 15 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The increase in February's finished goods was led by increases in energy and food prices, which edged up 0.4 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively. According to the latest BLS figures, the so-called core rate of wholesale inflation -- finished goods minus food and energy -- remained unchanged in February, following a 0.1 percent decline in January. In February, producer prices were down 2.6 percent over the past year, making it the largest year-on-year decline since 1950. The core rate was up 0.5 percent during the past year, BLS says. "Not only is the modest increase in producer prices nothing to worry about, it's a small reflection that producers are beginning to feel more secure about the economic outlook," says National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors President Ron Schreibman (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). All the signals for the U.S. economy are flashing "go" these days, including three reports out yesterday that showed a solid rise in industrial production, very low inflation, and the strongest reading for consumer sentiment in more than a year. These and other recent numbers have been so strong that they have erased doubts among economists that economic growth is rebounding from last year's recession. The Labor Department said producer prices for finished goods rose 0.2 percent last month, primarily because of a 1 percent rise in food prices. Even with last month's increase in the price index, which tracks changes in the prices producers charge when they first sell a completed item, was still 2.6 percent lower than it was in February 2001. And the core portion of the PPI, which includes volatile food and energy prices, was flat last month and up only 0.5 percent over the past 12 months (John M. Berry, The Washington Post, page E1). Consumer confidence rose in March to its highest level in 15 months and factories stepped up production in February, two reports released today showed, bolstering views of an accelerating economy. The 0.4 percent increase in production at factories, mines, and utilities last month came after a 0.2 percent gain in January and was the largest since June 2000, Federal Reserve figures showed. It was the first back-to-back increase since August and September of 2000. Analysts had expected a 0.2 percent rise. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index jumped to 95 this month, the highest since December 2000, from 90.7 in February. "We made the turn," said Paul Kasriel, director of economic research at National Trust in Chicago. A third report from the Labor Department showed that the Producer Price Index rose 0.2 percent in February, meeting expectations, after a 0.1 percent January gain. Excluding food and energy, the index was unchanged (Bloomberg News, The New York Times, March 16, page B3). Industrial production at the nation's factories, mines, and utilities rose 0.4 percent in February, the strongest gain since the summer of 2000 right before the industrial slump began. The Labor Department reported Friday that wholesale prices rose a modest 0.2 percent in February, while the core rate of inflation which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was flat (USA Today, page B1). The Wall Street Journal's feature "Tracking the Economy" (page C21) predicts that the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers for February, due out Thursday, will be 0.2 percent over the January figure, according to Consensus Forecast. The actual increase from December 2001 to January> 2002 was also 0.2 percent. The CPI-U excluding Food and Energy for February is predicted to be 0.2 percent also, as it was the previous month. With its biggest gain in nearly 2 years, February's industrial production data provide fresh evidence an economic recovery is gaining ground. Consumers are also growing optimistic as the University of Michigan's preliminary March consumer sentiment index rose to a higher-than-expected 95 from 90.7 last month. Meanwhile, inflation remains tame. The Labor Department reported that the producer price index, which measures inflation at the wholesale level, rose 0.2 percent in February, following a 0.1 percent increase in January and a 0.6 percent decline in December (The Wall Street Journal, page A2. The Journal's page 1 graph is entitled "Few Inflation Worries" and shows the PPI excluding food and energy and the Producer Price Index, 1997 through 2002). <>
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, MARCH 19, 2002:
A recent Bureau of Labor Statistics survey gives national earnings figures
for four levels of laundry-machine operators, six levels of butchers, and
three of garbage collectors. Differentiating among seven levels of
gardeners, BLS economist William Wiatrowski says they could include yard
maintenance worker (first level), chemical applicator (third level) and
cemetery-grounds director (sixth level). He concedes that such detailed
classifications can be confusing and says BLS is working to improve future
surveys. "I don't know who uses this," sniffs Robert Fulton, a
human-resources consultant in Chicago. "Most companies, if they have a bus
driver, they have a bus driver" ("Work Week feature of The Wall Street
Journal, page A1).
Hints of turnaround are seen in staffing services, says "Work Week" feature
of The Wall Street Journal (page A1). Temp agencies were the first to be
squeezed when the economy slowed and demand fell for new hires. Now their
business is picking up again, adding to signs that the economy may be on the
rebound. "We're seeing a hint of a little more activity," says Manpower,
Inc.'s Jeff Joerres, adding that staffing firms are a "leading indicator in
and out" of recessions.
U.S. manufacturers expect to have to resort to more cost-cutting to deal
with a slow economic recovery from recession, according to a survey by the
National Association of Manufacturers. Seventy percent of the more than 300
companies polled said they plan to preserve profits by aggressively cutting
costs. The manufacturers expect the U.S. economy to grow a modest 2 to 3
percent this year, and four out of ten predict continued recession within
their own industry sectors, according to the NAM. Results of the annual
survey reflected only slightly more upbeat sentiments than a year ago when
the nation's economy was mired in recession. In the 2001 poll, the
consensus opinion of the manufacturing executives was that the economy would
grow 2 percent or less for the year. Jerry Jasinowski, president of the
manufacturing association, saw results as "confirming that manufacturing's
emergence from prolonged recession will be slower than the rest of the
economy" (Associated Press,
http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/311025p-2681201c.html; Daily Labor
Report, page A-9).
America's trade deficit surged to $28.5 billion in January as the nation's
foreign oil bill surged and U.S. exports fell to the lowest level in more
than 3 years, the Commerce Department reported today (Martin Crutsinger,
Associated Press,
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-03-19-trade.htm).
As the country bounces back from a recession, the Federal Reserve's next
mission will be to prepare Americans enjoying the lowest interest rates seen
in a generation for the possibility that rates will go higher this year,
economists say. The Fed's 11 interest rate cuts last year may have rescued
the economy from the downturn that began in last March and will allow
healthy economic growth to return in the months ahead, economists predict
(Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press,
http://www.nypost.com/apstories/V2311.htm).
DUE OUT TOMORROW: Respirator Use and Practices
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BLS Daily Report
WEDNESDAY, March 20 RELEASED TODAY: Respirators had been used by employees in about 10 percent of the private industry workplaces surveyed in late 2001. In nearly half of these 619,400 establishments where respirators were used, they were used by employees on a voluntary basis only, and, in about 12 percent, they were used only when required because of emergencies. These data are from a special survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The U.S. trade deficit expanded sharply in January, suggesting the economy hasn't strengthened quite as much as expected in the first quarter. The seasonally adjusted trade deficit for January swelled 15.4% to $28.5 billion from a revised $24.7 billion in December, the Commerce Department said. The trade gap in December, however, was surprisingly narrow, because imports had sharply contracted, an aberration that reversed itself in January ( The Wall Street Journal, page A2; and The New York Times, page C3). Despite signs of an economic rebound, the Labor Department reports that local job markets remain soft. Roughly 80% of 331 metropolitan areas posted January jobless rates higher than they were during the same period a year earlier. Among the 50 largest metro areas in the nation, Portland, Ore., saw the highest rate at 8.6%, while Orange County, Calif., had the lowest at 3.8%. San Jose, Calif., the center of tech-heavy Silicon Valley, turned in the sharpest year-over-year gain with unemployment soaring to 7.5% from 1.7% ( Robert Gavin, The Wall Street Journal, page B14). The Federal Reserve signaled to investors, businesses and consumers today that they should prepare for higher interest rates this year if the economy continues its speedy recovery. At a meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank voted to hold rates steady, as it did at its meeting in January. But the Fed laid the groundwork to begin reversing some of the 11 rate cuts it carried out last year as the economy sank into recession ( The New York Times, page C1). Federal Reserve officials left their interest rate target unchanged at a meeting yesterday and signaled that they may be in no rush to raise rates as long as the economic outlook remains uncertain. The central bank's top policymaking group, the Federal Open Market Committee, said the economy "is expanding at a significant pace" but then noted that the rate of growth later this year "is still uncertain." ( The Washington Post, page E1). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Consumer Price Index--February 2002; and Real Earnings--February 2002 <>
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, MARCH 21, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in February, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 177.8 (1982-84=100), the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. For the 12-month period ended in February, the CPI-U increased 1.1 percent. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 0.3 percent in February, prior to seasonal adjustment. The February level of 173.7 was 0.8 percent higher than the index in February 2001. Real average weekly earnings decreased by 0.1 percent from January to February after seasonal adjustment, according to preliminary data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This decline was due to a 0.2 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which was partially offset by a 0.1 percent increase in average hourly earnings. Average weekly hours were unchanged. Higher prices for clothing, medical care and airline fares contributed to a mild 0.2 percent rise in consumer inflation in February. The advance in the Consumer Price Index, a closely watched gauge of inflation, matched January's increase, the Labor Department reports. Excluding energy and food prices, the "core" rate of inflation rose 0.3 percent in February, following a 0.2 percent rise. Even with the slight pickup in consumer inflation, falling prices for new cars and trucks, computers and home furnishings provided shoppers with some bargains (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/316419p-2706517c.html). A key gauge of U.S. economic activity remained flat in February following four straight months of gains, suggesting a rocky economic recovery in the months ahead, the New York-based Conference Board said as it reported that its Index of Leading Economic Indicators remained steady at 112.4 last month, following a revised 0.8 percent increase in January. Analysts had forecast a 0.1 percent gain. "The U.S. economy has quickly turned from recession and is now firmly in recovery," said Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein. "But the road ahead is far from smooth, with sluggish profits and weak export demand restraining growth" (Hope Yen, Associated Press, http://www.nypost.com/apstories/business/V6476.htm). Housing starts rose in February to the highest level in more than 3 years, government figures showed today, suggesting that the construction of new homes will underpin a rebounding recovery. At an annual pace, builders began work on 1.769 million homes last month, up 2.8 percent from a 1.721 million rate in January, the Commerce Department said. That is the most homes started since December 1998 and reflects the fastest pace of single-family housing construction in more than 23 years (Bloomberg News, The New York Times, page C7). Boosted by a sharp 7.4 percent gain in single-family homes, housing starts in February zoomed to their fastest pace in more than 3 years, the government said Wednesday, an encouraging sign for the emerging U.S. economic recovery (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). In a recently released study of the 10 industries that employed the most women from 1995 to 2000, the General Accounting Office found that the gap between the salaries of men and women had widened for managers in seven of those sectors. The largest widening was in entertainment and recreational services, where female managers were earning just 62 cents for every dollar made by a male manager in 2000, down from 83 cents in 1995. Only three industries showed improvement for women -- albeit slight. The biggest gain was in educational services, where the figures rose to 91 cents on the dollar, from 86 cents. The GAO report is supported by other studies, including one conducted by the Women's Research and Education Institute in Washington showing that overall managerial salaries for women slipped to 71.3 cents in 2000 from 78 cents in 1995. Variations in lifestyle choices might justify the existence of a wage gap. So, too, might the varying levels of experience and managerial responsibility that the GAO study couldn't measure. What these factors don't explain, however, is why the gap has grown (Jeffrey L. Seglin, who teachers at Emerson College in Boston and is the author of "The Good, the Bad, and Your Business" (John Wiley & Sons), in The New York Times, March 17, "Money & Business", page 4). Louis Uchitelle calls inflation the "wild card of the recovery" in his column in The New York Times, March 17, "Money & Business", page 4, writing under the heading "Economic View". Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price index fell precipitously to an annual rate of 1.1 percent in January from 3.2 last June. Rarely has inflation fallen that much, so quickly. Wages went in the opposite direction. Despite the recession, companies kept giving raises, he contends. "There was stil
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, MARCH 22, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The number of days idle and the percent of estimated working time lost because of strikes and lockouts were at historic lows in 2001, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Twenty-nine major work stoppages began during the year, idling 99,000 workers and resulting in 1.2 million workdays of idleness (less than 1 out of 10,000 available workdays). Comparable figures for 2000 were 39 stoppages, 394,000 workers idled, and 20.4 million days of idleness. The major work stoppage series, which dates back to 1947, covers strikes and lockouts involving 1,000 workers or more and lasting at least one shift. More than four out of 10 employees that use respirators to protect their workers rely on little or no training to ensure their proper use or to detail the protective limitations of the technology, according to the results of the Bureau of Labor Statistics survey released March 20. BLS said the survey of respirator uses over a 12-month period found that respirator equipment is being used by workers in about 10 percent of the nation's private worksites. The survey of business establishments was conducted in late 2001. In nearly half of the 619,400 business establishments where respirators were being used, the respirators were being used voluntarily -- workers were protecting themselves from allergies or other irritants or were providing themselves a measure of protection beyond that of federal health standards -- rather than in response to regulatory requirements, the survey said (Daily Labor Report, March 21, page D-1). Fewer workers applied for state unemployment benefits last week, the government said in a report showing a labor market on the mend as the economy recovers. The Employment and Training Administration of the Labor Department said the number of initial jobless claims fell by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 371,000 for the week ended March 16, exceeding Wall Street's expectations that first-time claims would slip down to 374,000 The decrease echoes economists predictions that the U.S. economy is heading for a rebound. Payrolls outside of agriculture increased by 66,000 in February, the first gain since last July, according to figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Daily Labor Report, page D-25; Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-03-21-jobless.htm). Nearly all major categories posted moderate price increases last month, resulting in a 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted rise in the consumer price index for all urban consumers in February, according to figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most private forecasters expect inflation to pick up somewhat once the U.S. economy's growth rate accelerates. Energy prices helped to hold down the overall CPI-U last month, but analysts point out that a recent jump in gasoline prices will boost the index for March (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Consumer prices rose in February for a second consecutive month and fewer workers sought unemployment benefits according to one measure, offering additional evidence that the economy is growing and that higher interest rates are possible. The Consumer Price Index, the most widely watched gauge of inflation, rose 0.1 percent in February, reflecting higher prices for housing, food and clothing, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported (The New York Times, page C8). The inflation-adjusted earnings of most U.S. workers declined 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures. Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers, dropped 0.2 percent. Average weekly earnings for February was $277.77, down from $278.01 in January, but still above the February 2001 level of $271.65 (Daily Labor Report, page D-20). Consumer prices unexpectedly jumped in February, rattling investors on guard for a pre-emptive Federal Reserve strike against inflation. Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in February from January, the Labor Department said, but excluding energy and food, so-called core prices rose a higher-than-expected 0.3 percent. Prices overall were up 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the lowest 12-month increase in almost 40 years, but core prices were up 2.6 percent. Core prices generally carry more weight because energy and food prices are notoriously volatile, and thus mask perhaps a different underlying trend (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). One in seven U.S. hospitals faces severe shortages of registered nurses, according to a graph in Business Week (March 25, page 10). The national average percent of hospital nursing jobs available is 13 percent, with California having 20 percent of its hospital nursing jobs unfilled, Florida 18 percent, New York 9 percent, Massachusetts 7 percent and Minnesota 5 percent. Data is from the American Hospital Association. "The remarkable performance of the U
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, MARCH 25, 2002: Despite the holiday-shortened week, look for a bevy of economic data, most of which are expected to underscore the strengthening economy, says the Los Angeles Times in an Internet article that combines reports from Reuters, Bloomberg News, and the Associated Press (http://www.latimes.com/business/la-21526mar25.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines %2Dbusiness. Economists expect a decrease in last month's sales of existing homes, though new-home sales are likely to have risen in February, when compared with January results. One of the week's most closely watched set of numbers will be reported Tuesday with the release of February orders for costly durable goods, which includes such items as washing machines and computers. Earlier this month, data showed U.S. businesses were building up inventories, anticipating an increase in demand from consumers and businesses amid the economic upturn. Now, investors are looking for evidence that anticipated growth in demand is showing up in orders. A final revision to fourth-quarter U.S. gross domestic product data is expected Thursday. Economists expect GDP to show a gain of 1.4 percent -- same as the previous revision. Consumer spending, which makes up approximately two-thirds of the economic activity in the nation, remained strong throughout the downturn and traders are watching for indications that it has continued to stay resilient. The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence, due Tuesday, is expected to show a gain to 98.8 in March from 94.1 in February. On Thursday, University of Michigan's final March consumer sentiment report will be released. The forecast calls for a reading of 95.1, up from 90.7 in February. The New York and Chicago regional manufacturing surveys are due Thursday. Taking into account savings, severance benefits, and financial adjustments they say they've made, most job hunters can afford a job search lasting close to half a year, according to a poll of 725 "outplaced workers" by career-services firm Lee Hecht Harrison (LHH), in Woodcliff Lake, N.J. Some 56 percent of respondents believed severance alone would cover them for the duration of their search. Those polled reported a median severance of 15 to 16 weeks (http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0325/p16s05-wmgn.html). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment: February 2002 <>
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, MARCH 26, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: Regional and state unemployment rates generally were stable in February and remained higher than a year ago. Forty-four states and the District of Columbia recorded shifts of 0.3 percentage point or less from a month ago, while over the year only 11 states registered changes that small, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The national jobless rate was essentially unchanged in February at 5.5 percent. Nonfarm employment decreased in 32 states. (Employment and unemployment data for Michigan, and therefore the East North Central division and Midwest region, were not available at the time of release). As the agency moves ahead with improvements in the consumer price index, Bureau of Labor Statistics officials are looking at ways to help data users compare the CPI with other inflation measures, says John Greenlees, BLS assistant commissioner for consumer prices, at the National Association for Business Economics' policy conference. Many of Greenlees' comments on the CPI pertained to recommendations made recently by a panel of prominent economists chaired by Charles Schultze, senior fellow emeritus of the Brookings Institution. The Schultze panel proposed that BLS publish more experimental inflation measures, and agreed with recent improvements in the widely used inflation index. With the release of July figures in August, the bureau plans to publish a new superlative CPI, designed to come closer to a cost-of-living measure than the current index. Greenlees said the superlative measure will give data users a new option but will not replace either of the official CPIs published monthly. Research conducted by the bureau indicates that the superlative CPI will increase at an annual rate of 0.1 to 0.2 percentage point less than the CPI-U (Daily Labor Report, page C-1). Strikes and lockouts involving 1,000 or more workers last year fell to 29 from 39 in 2000, says the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of workers involved fell to 99,000 from 394,000 (The Wall Street Journal's "Work Week" feature, page A1). Government statistics appear to have seriously underestimated job losses last year in California and the nation, a sign that the recession was worse than previously thought, according to confidential data obtained by The San Francisco Chronicle (Sam Zuckerman, http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2002/03/26/MN225965.DTL) . In California, new data show that the state had approximately 180,000 fewer jobs in September than officially reported by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics and the state Employment Development Department. The new statistics, data from unemployment insurance tax filings, normally are made public only once a year. Experts say the apparent miscount suggests that the pain caused by the recession was significantly more severe than government data showed. It also raises the question of whether official employment statistics gave an accurate portrait of the economy and whether that data can be relied on by planners. If the gap between official statistics and new data were the same percentage nationwide, the agency's calculation of 132.5 million jobs would have been overstated by roughly 1.6 million in September. Bureau officials said they had begun a review to find out why the new data showed so many fewer jobs than official employment statistics. "We do see a bigger difference than we are comfortable with," said Pat Getz, the bureau's division chief for current employment statistics. "We are looking at where the discrepancy is by industry and state." Sales of existing homes fell slightly in February but still posted the second-best annual rate ever, showing that the housing sector remains on firm footing, the National Association of Realtors said. Sales of previously owned homes, the largest category of home sales, declined 2.8 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.88 million. The January sales rate was revised upward to a record 6.05 million (Reuters, The New York Times, page C10; Associated Press, http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/085/business/Home_sales_dip_in_February+.s html; The Wall Street Journal, page A2). Consumer confidence surged in March to its highest level in 7 months, bolstered by growing optimism about the economy and the job market. The New York-based Conference Board said today that its Consumer Confidence Index rose to 110.2 this month, from a revised 95.0 in February. Analysts were expecting a reading of 98. The index, based on a monthly survey of some 5,000 U.S. households, is closely watched because consumer confidence drives consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the nation's economic activity (Hope Yen, Associated Press, http://www.nypost.com/apstories/V4807.htm). Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket goods rose 1.5 percent in February, the third straight monthly increase, lifted by stronger deman
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, MARCH 27, 2002: Unemployment rates increased in 17 states and the District of Columbia in February and decreased in 17 states, according to figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate in 15 states was unchanged from January. Employment and unemployment data for Michigan were not available. For the 10th consecutive month, North Dakota reported the lowest unemployment rate -- 2.9 percent, BLS said. Oregon and Washington posted the highest unemployment rates, 8.1 percent and 7.0 percent, respectively. Wisconsin had the largest monthly increase, 0.6 percentage point. Rhode Island posted the largest rate decline, 0.8 percentage point (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). The number of work stoppages involving at least 1,000 workers was at an historic low last year, with 29 major work stoppages during the year, idling 99,000 workers and resulting in 1.2 million workdays of idleness, according to figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Three work stoppages in 2001 accounted for more than two-fifths of all workers idled as a result of strikes last year (Daily Labor Report, page D-9). The slump in California's information technology industry may end soon, and nonfarm employment growth will pick up after three negative quarters in 2001, but the state's heavy reliance on technology, especially for exports, and an uncertain state budget outlook means its recovery may lag that of the nation's by several quarters, a UCLA report says. Total nonfarm employment in California will grow by a meager 0.7 percent in 2002, and then by 2.2 percent in 2003, after negative growth in each of the last three quarters of 2001, the UCLA Anderson Forecast said (Daily Labor Report, page A-12). Workers who have changed jobs frequently in recent years are more likely to be the victims of job cuts than they were in the past, according to Victor Godinez, The Dallas Morning News, http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/2937598.htm. Chicago outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. found in its most recent Job Market Index that 39.1 percent of unemployed job seekers in the fourth quarter had worked for four or more companies. That was up from 34.27 percent in the third quarter, suggesting that companies are quicker to cut job-hoppers. In addition, the percentage of job seekers who had worked for only one company in their careers dropped from 10.48 to 9.93 percent. "800" telephone call centers are proliferating, adding jobs at a faster pace than any other major occupation. At least 3.5 million people and perhaps as many as 6 million work in call centers, which are increasingly concentrated in lower-wage cities, making this work force roughly as numerous as the nation's truck drivers, assembly line workers or public-school teachers, says Louis Uchitelle writing in The New York Times (page A1). The centers offer fresh opportunity and flexibility. They draw employees mainly from the 30 million women who have a high school degree and a year or two of college. Many are second earners in their families, helping to anchor their households in the middle class despite the middling pay. But the centers also exemplify a trend in today's service economy that has held down wages of many middle and lower-income workers. Unlike factories, the centers can be relocated easily to lower-wage cities or even overseas. All it takes is to ship the computers and communications gear somewhere else. So even as the economy boomed in the late 1990's, surveys show that pay scales held steady at $7 to $14 an hour at most of the nation's 60,000 or more call centers. And the people in the jobs can never feel secure. Most centers "make a priority of holding down labor costs , and as these jobs multiply, a large mass of women has become more vulnerable to layoffs and to what I would call plant closings," Rose Batt, a labor economist at Cornell University says. In part because of the growth of call centers, total employment of women has resisted the recession, declining less since 2000 than for men, who were particularly hard hit by the slump in manufacturing. For generations, convicts have made license plates or gone out, sometimes in chains, to clear roads and clear ditches. But in recent years, struggling rural communities have relied more and more on inmates to do jobs that public employees once did: tending cemeteries, cleaning courthouse restrooms, moving furniture, renovating municipal buildings, and even running errands for the police. The use of prisoners for manual labor has increased around the country, particularly in the South and Southwest where it not only fills the desperate demand for inexpensive laborers, but also helps prisons relieve overcrowding and supplement their budgets. A Justice Department survey showed that 124,000 inmates in state prisons or 10.4 percent of the total state prison population, and 45,000 local inmates or about
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, MARCH 28, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: Employers initiated 1,383 mass layoff actions in February 2002, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single establishment, and the number of workers involved totaled 138,984. Compared with February 2001, the number of layoff events declined by 8 percent and the number of claimants fell by 20 percent. This was the second time in the last 3 months that layoff events and related initial claims declined over the year. More U.S. workers than expected asked for state unemployment aid for the first time last week, the government said today in a sign the labor market was still trying to find its feet amid a recovering economy. The Labor Department said the number of initial jobless claims rose 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 394,000 for the week ended March 23. That was well above Wall Street's expectations that first-time claims would dip to 369,000. The figure rose to its highest level since mid-January when initial claims reached 395,000. However, the latest numbers still remained below the key 400,000 level analysts consider recessionary (Reuters, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A30524-2002Mar28.html). The U.S. economy, which fell into recession in early 2001, was already bouncing back in the final 3 months of the year, growing at an annual rate of 1.7 percent. The latest reading on the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy's health, shows the expansion was at a faster pace than the government previously estimated, the Commerce Department said today. The government initially estimated that the economy grew at a tiny 0.2 percent rate in the fourth quarter, and a month ago that was revised to a 1.4 percent rate. Today's upward revision to the GDP largely reflected an improved trade picture, which was less of a drag on growth in the fourth quarter (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/329238p-2768811c.html). The value of new construction starts in February rose 1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $512.3 billion, as an increase in nonresidential building and public woks offset a decline in single-family housing, according to F. W. Dodge, a building-research division of publisher McGraw Hill Cos. Nonresidential building grew 5 percent from a month earlier, with a 61 percent gain in hotels, 32 percent gain in offices and a 6 percent gain in warehouses. Store construction, which had gradually declined last year, surged 20 percent (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). Although they have jobs as health care workers, 1.36 million have no health insurance -- a number that has increased 83 percent since 1998-- a study in this month's "American Journal of Public Health" says. Compared with the mid-1980s, "Insurance coverage was diminished for virtually every health occupation in every type of institution, suggesting a widespread deterioration in the quality of health care jobs," says the study, which was written by three proponents of a national health care system. The study says an increase in private-sector health care jobs, which often have fewer benefits than jobs with public hospitals or health agencies, and a decline in union membership led to the drop. Even doctors go without, the study says, with about 5.4 percent reporting they are uninsured (USA Today, page 3B, http://www.usatoday.com/money/health/2002-03-28-no-insurance.htm). U.S. consumer sentiment vaulted in March to its highest level since December 2000 as job prospects and business conditions improved, making Americans feel better. The University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment index rose to 95.7 from 90.7 in February. Forecasts were for a reading of 95.1. The data are released directly to market subscribers only and were obtained by Reuters today. The current conditions index, which measures consumers' attitudes about their present financial situation, surged to 100.4 from 96.2 in February. The expectations index, which tracks attitudes about the 12 months ahead, rose to 92.7 from 87.2 (http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-03-28-sentiment.htm). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Employment Characteristics of Families in 2001 <>
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, MARCH 29, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: Reflecting the economic downturn that began early in 2001, the proportion of families containing an unemployed member rose by nearly a percentage point to 6.6 percent between 2000 and 2001, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Of the nation's 72 million families, the share with at least one employed member fell by 0.3 percentage point to 82.9 percent in 2001. These data on employment, unemployment, and family relationships are collected as part of the Current Population Survey (CPS), a monthly sample survey of about 60,000 households. Families include married-couple families, as well as families maintained by a man or a woman with no spouse present. Mass layoff events totaled 1,383 in February, resulting in job losses for 138,984 workers, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of mass layoff events declined from January, when 2,146 events resulted in 263,821 initial claimants for unemployment insurance -- the highest amount of January claimants since the series began in April 1995 (Daily Labor Report, page D-15). New claims for unemployment insurance benefits filed during the week ending March 23 totaled 394,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 376,000, according to the Employment and Training Administration of the Department of Labor. The less volatile, more closely watched 4-week moving average increased 3,250 to 383,500 for the period ended March 23, from the previous week's revised average of 380,250, ETA said. The proportion of the workforce receiving unemployment benefits was 2.7 percent, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised figure for the week ending March 16 (Daily Labor Report, page D-12; The New York Times, page C11). The Help-Wanted Advertising index increased four points to 51 in February, but remains down from a year ago, according to the Conference Board. In the last 3 months, help-wanted advertising increased in seven out of nine U.S. regions. The largest increase, 46.9 percent, occurred in the East North Central region, which includes newspapers in Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Detroit. In the Mountain region of Denver, Phoenix, and Salt Lake City, the rate increased 33.9 percent (Daily Labor Report, page A-3). Consumers spent heavily in February, as their incomes increased solidly -- more signs that the U.S. economy is gaining strength after a brief recession. The Commerce Department reports that spending by consumers, which accounts for two-thirds of all economic activity in the United States, increased 0.6 percent last month after jumping 0.5 percent in January. At the same time, Americans' incomes, which include wages, interest, and government benefits, also increased by 0.6 percent, the largest expansion since October 2000. Incomes rose 0.5 percent in January. The data reinforces economists' view that the recession, which began last March, has ended and probably will turn out to be the country's mildest downturn ever (Leigh Strope, Associated Press, http:www.nypost.com/apstories/business/VO702.htm). U.S. consumer spending grew briskly in February as incomes rose at the fastest pace since December 2000, the government said today, as the nascent economic recovery picked up speed. U.S. consumer spending increased 0.6 percent last month to $7.25 billion after a 0.5 percent gain in January. Meanwhile, personal income also grew 0.6 percent in February to total $8.88 billion after a 0.5 percent rise in January. Both figures surpassed the expectations of private analysts (Caren Bohan, Reuters, http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/2960424.htm). For the fourth straight year, prescription drug spending rose more than 17 percent in 2001, driven in large measure by a few heavily advertised, high-priced medications, a nonpartisan study released yesterday found. Sales of prescription medication at retail stores and through mail-order companies totaled $175.2 billion last year, an increase of $27 billion over 2000, according to the National Institute for Health Care Management. The institute is a private, nonprofit research organization led by physicians, insurance executives, and policymakers from both parties (The Washington Post, page A1; The New York Times, page A18; The Wall Street Journal, page A3; Theresa Agovino, The Associated Press, http://www.nypost.com/apstories/business/V0025.htm). The gap in homeownership rates between native-born Americans and immigrants grew in the 1980s and 1990s to 20 percentage points, according to a survey by the Research Institute for Housing America, an independent arm of the Mortgage Bankers Association of America. But the study also found that the longer immigrants stay in the United States, the more likely they are to become homeowners. While 67 percent of native-born households owned their own homes in 2000, 47 percent of all immigrant households were homeowners. That difference
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, APRIL 1, 2002: The proportion of families with an unemployed member increased 1 percentage point to 6.6 percent in 2001, reflecting the recession, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures. Among the nation's 72 million families, 82.9 percent shared at least one employed member in 2001, a 0.3 percentage point decline from the previous year. In 2001, 4.8 million families had at least one member unemployed in an average week, an increase of 665,000 from 2000, BLS found. Black families had the highest proportion of unemployed members, 11.4 percent, higher than for Hispanics, 9.9 percent, or white families, 5.8 percent. (Daily Labor Report, page D-9). Personal income rose a solid 0.6 percent in February, following an upwardly revised 0.5 percent gain in January, the Commerce Department said March 29. The increase in personal income was stronger than analysts were expecting and brought income to $8.88 trillion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. It was matched by a 0.6 percent increase in personal consumption, or consumer spending, to $7.25 trillion (Daily Labor Report, page D-3). Amid the shaky economy of the past couple of years, housing has emerged as the central pillar of support. The market for housing has become less volatile and less prone to oversupply than before; it has also become the Federal Reserve's main lever for reviving the economy. From the very beginning of the downturn last year, the housing market has been strong. And that remains true today. In February, sales of new homes grew 5.3 percent, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 875,000, thanks to good weather and low mortgage rates. Sales of existing homes in February fell only slightly from the record annual pace in January of 6.05 million. Housing prices have been increasing faster than general inflation for several years, and they have accelerated in recent months to their fastest real rate of gain in decades. All this has bolstered consumer spending and helped salve the wounds that the falling stock market inflicted on households (The New York Times, March 30, page B1). The Wall Street Journal feature "Tracking the Economy" (page A2) indicates that according to the consensus forecast, nonfarm payrolls for March, to be released Friday of this week, will increase 50,000, a decline from the 66,000 increase for February. The unemployment rate for March, to be released Friday as well, is predicted to be 5.6 percent, in contrast to the 5.5 percent actual rate in February. Manufacturing activity grew for a second straight month in March, offering further evidence that the sector is back on track after a one-year slump, the Institute for Supply Management of Tempe, Ariz., formerly known as the National Association of Purchasing Management, says. Its index of business activity rose to 55.6 percent in March from 54.7 percent in February. Analysts had been expecting a reading of 54.3. An index above 50 signifies growth in manufacturing, while a figure below 50 shows contraction (Hope Yen, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/337309p-2802029c.html). Construction spending posted its biggest increase in a year in February as builders took advantage of Americans' demand for new homes. The Commerce Department reported that spending on construction projects grew by a bigger-than expected 1.1 percent in February. Many analysts were forecasting a smaller, 0.6 percent rise. It was the third straight monthly rise. Virtually all of the strength came from increased spending on residential construction, which rose 3.5 percent, especially single-family homes (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/337295p-2801918c.html). A hard-to-quantify but closely watched indicator has joined the growing number of signs that the economy is recovering. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index, based on a monthly survey of some 5,000 U.S. households, surged in March to its highest level in 7 months. The result exceeded expectations by many analysts, who credited the increase to the brightening job outlook (http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0401/p16s01-wmgn.html). <>
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, APRIL 2, 2002: About 6.6 percent of U.S. families had at least one unemployed family member last year, compared with 5.7 percent the year before, the Labor Department says (The Wall Street Journal "Work Week" feature, page A1). The Bureau of Labor Statistics weighs the merits of including medical expenses borne by employers, not just consumers, in the consumer price index. Given current trends, that would likely nudge up measured inflation. Bureau official John Greenlees cautions such a change isn't currently in the works but could eventually be tested in an "experimental index" (The Wall Street Journal "Work Week" feature, page A1). A dwindling proportion of young less educated black men are employed today, compared with 20 years ago. At the same time, employment among similarly educated black women has soared and job rates among comparable whites and Latinos have not changed, according to a major study to be released today by the Brookings Institution Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy. Paul Offner and Harry Holzer of the Georgetown Public Policy Institute found that employment and labor force participation rates of young black men with no more than a high school diploma currently lag 10 to 25 percentage points behind similarly educated white and Hispanic men. Holzer and Offner examined government data collected between 1979 and 2000 from black, white and Hispanic men and women ages 16 to 24 who were out of school and had a high school education or less. Barely half -- 52 percent -- of the black men were employed in 2000, compared with 62 percent two decades earlier, they found. Employment levels of young white and Hispanic men have held steady over the past two decades, with nearly eight in 10 working. At the same time, the employment rate for young similarly educated black women has increased from 37 to 52 percent (The Washington Post, page A13). Layoff announcements at U.S. firms fell in March to their lowest level in 10 months but remain higher than the monthly average during the last recession, suggesting recovery could be slow and uneven, Challenger Gray & Christmas said today. The outplacement firm said in a monthly report that job cuts announced in March, 102,315, was 20 percent fewer than the 128,115 layoff announcements in February. But Challenger warned that although an economic recovery may be underway, it is still too early to declare a persistent reversal of the rising trend in unemployment (Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-04-02-layoff-plans.htm). Orders to U.S. factories dipped 0.1 percent in February, as weaker demand for computers and cars eclipsed gains for household appliances and industrial machinery, the Commerce Department reported today. It marked the first drop in overall orders since November and followed a solid 1.1 percent advance in January. The weaker-than-expected performance in orders for a wide variety of manufactured goods comes just one day after a more forward-looking report offered some good news for the nation's struggling manufacturing sector (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/338919p-2811397c.html). Retail sales at discount, chain, and department stores fell the first 4 weeks of March, as an expected boost from Easter-related sales failed to materialize, Instinet Research said Tuesday. The Redbook Retail Sales Average slipped 1.1 percent the 4 weeks ended March 30, compared with the same period last month. Sales compared with the same week last year were up 3.7 percent. "This week's performance was seen as disappointing in light of an expected surge in sales into Easter weekend," Redbook said (Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/retail/2002-04-02-redbook.htm; Anne D'Innocenzio, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/337701p-2804114c.html; The New York Times, page C2). Even with Social Security and 401(k) plans, American aren't saving enough, declares Louis Uchitelle (The New York Times, March 31, "Week in Review" Section 4, page 1). Congress authorized 401(k) accounts in 1978, allowing workers to defer taxes on retirement savings. The intent was to supplement company plans, not displace them, says Uchitelle. But that is what is happening. By 1998, the latest year for which Labor Department figures are available, 27 percent of the more than 100 million privately employed Americans had 401(k) accounts to supplement Social Security in retirement. An additional 15 percent had both 401(k)'s and company-paid pensions. Yet the percentage of workers with only a company-paid pension on top of Social Security plummeted to 7 percent in 1998, from 28 percent in 1979. During this period, no group has had more time to accumulate savings in 401(k)'s than people now in their late 50's and early 60's. Some in this age group have built their accounts into rich nest eggs, but many have not. By 1998, the average amount
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, APRIL 3, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: In February, 266 metropolitan areas recorded higher unemployment rates than a year earlier, 40 areas had lower rates, and 16 areas had rates that were unchanged, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Thirteen metropolitan areas had jobless rates of at least 10.0 percent, eight of which were located in California's agricultural Central Valley. Sixteen areas posted unemployment rates below 3.0 percent, with nine located in the South and five in the Midwest. The national unemployment rate was 6.1 percent, not seasonally adjusted, in February. (Data for the nine metropolitan areas in Michigan were not available at the time of release). The massive U.S. service sector expanded for the second straight month in March, but the pace of activity slowed from the nearly 1-1/2 year peaks hit in February, a report shows today. The Institute for Supply Management, an industry trade group, said its monthly nonmanufacturing index slipped to 57.3 in March from 58.7 in February, against market expectations for a 57.0 reading. March marks the second straight month the index has stayed above the 50 mark, indicating expansion in the sector that includes everything from transportation to legal and financial services. In February, the index surged well above expectations to its highest level since November 2000, prompting economists to raise their growth forecasts for the U.S. economy (Reuters, http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-04-03-services.htm). U.S. vehicle sales fell a mild 1 percent last month compared with March 2001, offering encouragement to analysts and automakers that demand will strengthen and the nation's economy will continue to improve. Sales of passenger cars fell 2 percent compared with the same month a year ago, while light truck sales slipped 1 percent, the industry reported Tuesday. Several automakers say strength in sales to retail customers helped their results. "The month was better than most forecasts and better than Detroit was expecting," said David Healy, an analyst with Burnham Securities. "That means that production will probably increase in the second quarter" (David Runk, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/340068p-2815793c.html). <>
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, APRIL 4, 2001: New claims for unemployment insurance shot up last week, but the layoffs picture was distorted by federal requirements related to how laid-off workers who exhausted their benefits may seek to get them extended. For the work week ending March 30, new claims for jobless benefits jumped by a seasonally adjusted 64,000 to 460,000, the highest level since the beginning of December, the Labor Department reported today. Many analysts had expected new claims to fall. Because a Federal provision requires workers whose benefits are exhausted to file a new claim so that they can become eligible for an extension of Federal jobless benefits, the weekly claims figures could be volatile in the next few week. The benefit program is part of an economic stimulus package passed by Congress to help workers who lost their jobs amid last year's recession and in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks. Private economists polled by Reuters had expected claims to fall to 376,000 in the March 30 week. The Labor Department reported claims of 394,000 for the week of March 23. In a sign that people are still struggling to find work, the number of unemployed who had already qualified for a week of benefits rose to 3.608 million in the week ended March 23. This was well above the 2.494 million registered for the same period a year ago. More data on the U.S. jobs market are due out tomorrow, with the release of the March non-farm payrolls report. The unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 5.6 percent from 5.5 percent in February, and outside the farm sector, 41,000 jobs are expected to be created compared with a gain of 66,000 in February (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nypost.com/apstories/V0456.htm; Nancy Waitz, Reuters, http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/2997408.htm). Income inequality rose, dropped sharply, and then surged in the last century. In the 80's and 90's, top income groups carried an increasingly large share of the total income in the United States, according to Alan B. Krueger, Berndheim Professor of Economics and Public Affairs at Princeton University writing in the "Economic Scene" columns of The Wall Street Journal (page C2). Before the 1940's the wealthiest Americans earned the bulk of their income from returns on capital. But capital taxation has had a cumulative effect on top incomes. Today's rich are not so different from the rest of us after all -- they, too, work for a living. But they earn a lot more money. In 2001, the average chief executive of an industrial company with approximately $500 million in sales was paid $1.9 million, according to the Towers Perrin Worldwide Total Remuneration Report. After adjusting for inflation, salaries of chief executives grew almost 6 percent a year in the 1980's and 1990's. Wage growth has been so strong at the high end that the top 1 percent of taxpayers have taken home 84 percent of the growth in total income since 1973. Data compiled by the Bureau of National Affairs through April 1 for all contract settlements show that the average first-year wage increase in newly negotiated contracts is 4.3 percent, compared with 3.9 percent in the comparable period last year. The manufacturing average increase was 2.5 percent, compared with 3.3 percent in 2001, and the median was 2.8 percent, compared with 3 percent. The nonmanufacturing (excluding construction) average increase is 5.2 percent, compared with 4 percent in 2001, and the median was 4 percent, compared with 3.8 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). After accounting for inflation, tuition at 4-year public colleges is up 128 percent since 1980-81, tuition at private 4-year colleges is up 131 percent. After taking into account family incomes and available student financial aid, the affordability of public 4-year colleges varies among states. Most affordable are in Utah, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kansas, and Minnesota. Least affordable are in Vermont, Rhode Island, New York, California, and New Hampshire. Source of the data is the College Board (USA Today, page 12A). DUE OUT TOMORROW: The Employment Situation, March 2002. <>
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, APRIL 5, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: Both payroll employment and the unemployment rate were little changed in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Manufacturing and construction each lost nearly 40,000 jobs, but services employment grew substantially. Both the manufacturing workweek and overtime hours rose over the month. The nation's unemployment rate nudged up to 5.7 percent in March, although employment added 58,000 new positions to payrolls, the Labor Department said today. The discrepancy signaled that the strengthening economy hasn't completely filtered down to the job market The March rate was an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Economists had been expecting a rise to at least 5.6 percent. Employment gains in services and local government tempered job losses in construction and manufacturing, and overall, U.S. businesses added 58,000 new jobs last month. That's the first gain in 7 months and it compared with a revised loss in February of 2,000 payroll jobs. As it did during the last recession that ended in 1991, the nation's unemployment rate still could rise in coming months as businesses regain financial strength. Some economists predict the rate will climb to more than 6 percent before a prolonged drop-off occurs (Leigh Strope, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/344838p-2840005c.html). The pace of retail job cuts, which increased dramatically after September 11, has accelerated in 2002, and this year's cuts may be the worse in at least 2 decades, as the industry consolidates, according to a major employment study to be released Monday. During the first 3 months of this year, 51,078 retail job cuts have been announced, including the 22,000 job losses that Kmart Corp. announced in the wake of its bankruptcy filing, according to a survey by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. an employment research and recruiting firm. That is already half way toward matching last year's record of 96,741 cuts, Challenger says. Based on the first-quarter figures, merchants are eliminating an average of 17,026 jobs per month, and John Challenger, chief executive, expects that pace will continue, with this year's total estimate to exceed 200,000. "This is going to be the year in which retailers come to terms with changes of consumer behavior that was precipitated by the recession," Challenger said. He said the job losses will be the worst since the early 1980s. Challenger believes the retail category could be ranked among the top two industries, rivaling the telecommunications and automotive sectors, as having the largest downsizing this year. Last year, retailing didn't make it to the top 10 industries hardest hit by layoffs (Anne D'Innocenzio, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/344122p-2835397c.html). American workers now put more money into pensions and retirement savings plans sponsored by their employers than the companies themselves do, writes Edward Wyatt in The New York Times (page 1). That remarkable milestone, determined by pension researchers reviewing the most recent data, shows just how far companies have moved away from the system of decades past, in which employers alone financed the retirement savings of their workers and toward 401(k) and similar retirement plans financed mostly by workers. <>
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, APRIL 8, 2002: The unemployment rate edged up 0.2 percentage points to 5.7 percent in March, but employers added 58,000 workers to their payrolls, further proof that a recovery is under way, according to figures released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Manufacturing payroll figures fell by 38,000 in March as hours worked jumped 0.8 percent. Construction payrolls declined 37,000, and small declines were seen in retail, wholesale, transportation, and finance payrolls. Help supply services added 69,000. This was the second consecutive month of job growth in the industry that lost nearly a fifth of its jobs from September 2000 through January 2002 (Daily Labor Report, page D-1, Text E-10). The nation's jobless rate rose last month, but the number of payroll jobs increased and there were other signs that U.S. labor markets are stabilizing after last year's recession. The unemployment rate increased sharply late last year after the September 11 terrorist attacks. The rate reached a peak of 5.8 percent in December, fell to 5.6 percent in January and 5.5 percent in February, before going up to 5.7 percent last month, the Labor Department reported Friday. Meanwhile, non-farm employers added 58,000 jobs to payrolls last month, the first increase in 8 months, after cutting them by 2,000 in February. The February figure was revised downward significantly from the original estimate of a 66,000 gain (John M. Berry, The Washington Post, April 6, page E1). The Labor Department reported yesterday that the unemployment rate rebounded to 5.7 percent last month, erasing the improvement since January and clearly suggesting that the growing economy is not yet benefiting workers. Still, the March numbers were laced with evidence of growth. Employers expanded their payrolls on a seasonally adjusted basis by 58,000 jobs, a relatively meager gain but the first monthly increase since July. Temporary-help agencies added workers at a rapid clip, a signal that companies need people to meet rising demand, but are not yet willing to hire more permanent employees. Manufacturers piled on the overtime, and layoffs declined, suggesting that companies, expecting better times, are becoming more reluctant to downsize (Louis Uchitelle in The New York Times, April 6, page A1). Recession wary employers are beginning to hire again, but with a caution that shows the recovery faces stiff headwinds. Aside from agricultural jobs, payrolls rose 58,000 in March from February, the first increase in 8 months, the Department of Labor said Friday. But while the improvement was encouraging, the overall picture hasn't changed much: Job creation remains tepid (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). The Wall Street Journal's feature "Tracking the Economy" (page A2) shows import prices for March, due to be released by BLS Thursday, are expected to go up 0.6 percent according to the Consensus Forecast, in contrast to the decline of 0.1 percent last month. The Producer Price Index for March, to be announced Friday, is expected to move up 0.7 percent, compared to a 0.2 increase percent in February. The Producer Price Index excluding food and energy for March is expected to go up 0.1 percent, in compared to the 0.0 percent of the previous month. Carl Steidtmann, chief economist of Deloitte Research, jointly owned by the accounting firm Deloitte & Touch and Deloitte Consulting, is said by The Wall Street Journal's "The Outlook" column (page A1) to have compared changes in consumer confidence and consumer spending over the past 20 years. His finding: There is very little, if any, relationship between confidence and spending. He says that "spending and confidence are driven by a different set of factors." Specifically, politics, disasters and war drive confidence, Steidtmann says, while cash flow drives spending. But Ken Goldstein, a economist at the Conference Board which publishes the Consumer Confidence Index, concedes that his index won't tell investors whether spending will rise by 1 or 2 percent in the future, but when it comes to providing "an overall sense of whether the consumer market is building or losing momentum, this thing works like a charm." If that's the case, consumer spending could surge in coming months along with the booming confidence numbers. The Conference Board's latest survey surged 15 points in March to 110.2, the highest level since the September terrorist attacks. The Michigan index grew by five points to 95.7, the highest level since December 2000. Salaries for the nation's teachers barely kept pace with living costs in the 1990s, rising 31 percent to about $43,000, the nation's largest teachers union -- the National Education Association -- says in its annual report on state spending on education. The report says teachers' salaries rose 0.5 percent from 1990 to 2000 when inflation is taken into account. In many states, the union said, teachers lost gro
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, APRIL 9, 2002: Labor shortages caused when baby boomers retire will slow economic growth in the United States and "could plunge the fastest-aging countries in Europe and Asia into permanent recession," according to a summary of a report released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Commission on Global aging. Three factors are creating the impending crisis: the shrinking proportion of young people entering the workforce throughout the developed world, the inevitable liquidation of savings by baby boomers in their retirement years, and medical advances that keep people living longer. But labor shortages will "lead labor-intensive work to be outsourced to the developing world, while immigration will help to fill skilled worker bottlenecks. Investment in fast-growing emerging markets will achieve the best stock market returns, these experts predict. The CSIS commission proposed 55 steps that aging countries might take to blunt the impact of the coming boomer economic bust. Among them: boosting labor force participation by women and the elderly, relaxing some immigration and citizenship laws, and providing tax breaks to encourage couples to have children (The Washington Post, page A17). Wholesalers reduced inventories again in February, the Commerce Department reports. Inventories fell 0.7 percent, a ninth consecutive decline that left suppliers at a 2-year low. Sales at wholesalers rose 0.8 percent in February, setting the stage for a rebound in manufacturing and a sustained economic recovery (Bloomberg News, The New York Times, page C7; http://www.latimes.com/business/la-25252apr09.story?coll=%2Dheadlines%2D business). Education increases income, says USA Today, in its page 3B box showing median household income, based on education. According to it, households in which there is a professional degree have an income of $100,000; those with a doctorate degree, $97,325; households in which there is a Masters degree have an income of $74,476; those with a bachelor's degree $64,406; households with an associate degree, $49,279; those with some college, no degree, $44,149; households that include a high school graduate, $35,744; households with an education consisting of ninth to 12th grade, $21,737, and households that include someone with below a ninth grade education, $17,261. Income is based on 1999 data from the U.S. Census and the College Board. DUE OUT TOMORROW: Lost-Worktime Injuries and Illnesses: Characteristics and Resulting Time Away from Work, 2000 <>
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, APRIL 10, 2002:
RELEASED TODAY: A total of 1.7 million injuries and illnesses in private
industry required recuperation away from work beyond the day of the incident
in 2000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of these
cases in 2000 was about the same as in 1999. Since 1992 (when the series
started), there has been a steady decline in the number of these lost
worktime injuries and illnesses.
Portland, Ore., at 8.9 percent, had the highest February unemployment rate
among big cities, says the Bureau of Labor Statistics ("Work Week" by Carlos
Tejada, The Wall Street Journal, page B3).
Your thoughts on whether the economy is on the rebound may depend upon the
degree on your wall, says Carlos Tejada, writing in the "Work Week" feature
(The Wall Street Journal, page B3). Employment among people with college
degrees rose 2.4 percent, representing about 900,000 jobs, between December
and March. Meanwhile, less-educated workers saw decreases or little
improvement. Better-educated workers tend to see their fortunes rise first,
says economist Alan Krueger of Princeton, University.
Workers were asked who is most likely to be treated unfairly in the
workplace, according to a page 1B graph in USA Today. Twenty-one percent
responded African Americans, 18 percent said Arab Americans, 13 percent
indicated Hispanics, 12 percent said Muslims, and 8 percent responded women.
Source of the data is the John J Heldrich Center for Workforce Development,
Heldrich Work Trends Survey of 1,005 workers.
Import prices in March, due out tomorrow, will probably rise 0.4 percent,
after inching 0.1 percent lower through February. That's based on the
median forecast of economists surveyed by Standard & Poor's MMS, a unit of
The McGraw-Hill Companies. March export prices are forecast to have fallen
0.2 percent for a second straight month (Business Week, April 15, page 122).
Producer prices of finished goods, due out Friday, will probably jump 0.5
percent during March, after a 0.2 percent increase in February according to
predictions by Business Week. Excluding food and energy, core prices will
probably rise a smaller 0.2 percent, after remaining unchanged in February.
(Business Week, April 15, page 122).
Beginning June 30, it'll cost more to keep those cards, letters, and
magazines coming. The first-class mail rate will rise 3 cents to 37 cents,
a postcard stamp will rise 2 cents to 23 cents, and most other prices will
also go up. The new rates were approved in February and the effective date
was announced yesterday by the Postal Service's board of governors. The
package of rate increases are aimed at helping the Postal Service cope with
declining business and revenue triggered by the post September 11 anthrax
attacks and the recession. At the same time, Postmaster General John Potter
repeated his promise that rates won't rise again until at least 2004 (The
Wall Street Journal, page D2; Randolph E. Schmid, Associated Press,
http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/352136p-2878436c.html).
DUE OUT TOMORROW: U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes -- March 2002.
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BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, APRIL 11, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The U.S. Import Price Index increased 1.1 percent in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The increase, the largest since September 2000, was attributable to a large jump in petroleum prices. The Export Price Index also increased in March, up 0.3 percent, after declining in each of the previous 5 months. A declining trend in the most severe class of workplace injuries plateaued in 2000, as employers recorded 1.7 million injuries and illnesses requiring a day or more of recovery time -- the same figure as the year before -- the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. In contrast, BLS says, the number of reported restricted duty cases, those where injured workers return to the workplace but perform less strenuous jobs, dropped slightly in 2000. By occupation, truck drivers had the highest total number of injuries requiring time away from work, with a total of 136,000 cases in 2000, according to BLS. Musculoskeletal disorders -- including back injuries, carpal tunnel syndrome, and neck and tendon disorders -- accounted for more than one-third of the total U.S. injuries and illnesses requiring time away from work, or 34.7 percent of the total in 2000, BLS says (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Two trends in compensation for chief executive officers were evident in 2001 -- an ongoing divide between company performance and executive pay, and a double standard on retirement and job security for CEOs compared with workers, AFL-CIO Secretary-Treasurer Richard L. Trumka, said April 10. While CEO pay usually is based on performance, he said, corporate profits declined by 35 percent, stock prices fell by 13 percent, and 1.4 million workers were laid off last year. Trumka said that while some CEOs took pay cuts, lowering average pay by 8 percent, the majority got raises, raising median pay by 7 percent (Daily Labor Report, page A-4). Fewer Americans filed claims for unemployment insurance last week, though the layoffs picture continues to be clouded by a technical fluke that was a big factor in the surge in claims during the week before. The Labor Department reported today that new claims for jobless benefits dropped by a seasonally adjusted 55,000 to 438,000, for the work week ending April 6. Even with the decline, a government analyst said the claims number continued to be inflated because of the fluke: Laid-off workers seeking to take advantage of a federal extension for benefits were required to submit new claims. Congress recently passed legislation signed into law by President Bush that provided a 13-week extension of jobless benefits (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/355432p-2895178c.html). The nation's leading retailers reported solid sales gains in March, although an expected boost from the Easter holiday was muted by unseasonably cool weather and shoppers' continued reluctance to splurge. As the big stores released their sales figures today, analysts said they were heartened by an improvement in the battered department store sector. Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., the world's largest retailer, again outperformed the rest of the industry. It raised its sales projections for the first quarter today, after reporting impressive March sales gains that beat Wall Street expectations, Anne D'Innocenzio, Associated Press, http://www.nypost.com/apstories/business/V3241.htm). Even during the recent recession, municipalities across the nation have been adopting "living wage" laws, which have a higher pay scale than the longstanding federal and state minimum wage laws. Thus far, about 82 cities, counties, and universities have enacted living wage laws over the past 11 years, and campaigns are underway in more than 75 other areas across the country, according to ACORN, the grass-roots organization spearheading most of the living wage movement. The number of workers affected by the law nationally has been small, as few as 100,000, according to one report (Boston Globe). In a surprisingly hawkish interview, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole says the Fed must be vigilant in its fight against inflation even though price pressures in the U.S. economy currently are benign. Poole says the Fed does not have to wait for unemployment to fall for policymakers to feel comfortable raising interest rates, as some analysts argue. The jobless rate, which rose from 5.5 percent in February to 5.7 percent in March, is subject to too many outside factors, such as bad weather or an influx of workers in the labor force, he says. "If the unemployment rate is the only thing that is sticking out there, and everything else is going the other way, then the unemployment rate is not decisive," Poole says. Other Fed officials have been more cautionary. Dallas Fed President Robert McTeer told Reuters last week he wanted to see the unemployment rate fall below 5 percent and industrial act
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, APRIL 12, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods advanced 1.0 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. This increase followed a 0.2 percent increase in February and a 0.1 percent rise in January. The intermediate goods index advanced 1.0 percent in March, after dropping 0.1 percent in the prior month. Prices received by producers of crude goods rose 4.0 percent, following a 0.8 percent decline in February. Wholesale prices shot up 1 percent in March, lifted by the largest jump in gasoline costs in nearly 3 years. The big advance in the Producer Price Index, which measures inflation pressures before they reach consumers, comes after wholesale prices edged up 0.2 percent in February, the Labor Department reported today. The jolt last month largely came from a sharp increase in energy prices, especially gasoline. That caused the overall reading on wholesale inflation to be worse than the 0.7 percent increase many analysts were bracing for. In another report, sales at the nation's retailers rose a modest 0.2 percent in March for the second month in a row, the Commerce Department said (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/357446p-2905766c.html). Prices of goods imported into the U.S. in March rose at the fastest pace in 1 1/2 years, led by a surge in oil prices that may restrain consumer spending and economic growth. The 1.1 percent increase in the import price index, reflecting the biggest gain in energy costs since April 1999, followed a 0.1 percent drop in February, the Labor Department said (Bloomberg News, Reuters, http://www.latimes.com/business/la-26024apr12.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines% 2Dbusiness). Surging oil prices pushed up imported goods at their fastest pace in 18 months in March, highlighting how energy costs are a new restraint on the still young economic recovery. Other data showed hiring and capital spending plans remain weak. Overall import prices rose 1.1 percent in March, after falling 0.1 percent in February, the Labor Department said yesterday, as petroleum prices climbed 15.7 percent, the biggest surge in nearly 3 years. Nonpetroleum prices, however, were unchanged. Export prices rose for the first time in 6 months, climbing 0.3 percent. March's climb in crude prices mostly reflected strengthening global demand as the U.S. and its trading partners pull out of recession. Prices have risen further this month with the violence in the Middle East, though they have erased part of that increase. Many economists say higher energy costs will sap household purchasing power and erode profit margins, but doubt that the economy will fall back into recession as a result. The impact of inflation is expected to be transitory. Separately, the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, an Arlington, Va. business research group, said its March survey of 57 senior financial executives at big manufacturers found just 12 percent plan to boost capital spending this year, the lowest proportion in more than 2 years (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). U.S. consumers kept spending in March but at only a modest rate, the Commerce Department said today in a report that hinted the economy's pace of recovery from recession is likely to be a measured one. Retail sales rose 0.2 percent in March, matching a downwardly revised 0.2 percent gain in February. Previously, February sales had been reported as up 0.3 percent. March sales excluding autos were up a slightly stronger 0.4 percent, while February purchases outside the auto sector were revised to unchanged from a 0.2 percent gain (Reuters, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A37217-2002Apr12.html). Wealthy consumers stepped up their buying in March, resulting in better-than-expected sales for some high-end sellers and offering new hope for an overall economic recovery. Menswear, another long-suffering part of the retail business, also saw a bit of a pickup, retailers said yesterday. In addition to gains reported earlier by some key large jewelry store chains and apparel manufacturers -- and continued strong results from discount retailers -- Tuesday's reports seemed to offer new evidence of a steady improvement for retailers, a key indicator for the broader economy (http://www.latimes.com/business/la-26053apr12.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines %2Dbusiness). <>
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, APRIL 15, 2002: One important measure of U.S. inflation rose sharply last month as the surge in world oil prices since mid-January began to work its way through the economy, the Labor Department reported Friday. Producer prices for finished goods rose 1 percent last month, the largest monthly increase since the beginning of last year, principally because of a 5.5 percent jump in energy prices. That included a 21.3 percent increase in the prices refiners charge for gasoline following a 4.5 percent rise in February. However, the rising cost of energy -- evident in recent weeks to motorists at the gas pump -- so far does not appear large enough to derail the U.S. economic recovery. It would take a much larger and more sustained oil price shock to seriously damage the economy, partly because it is significantly less dependent on oil than in the past, analysts say. The University of Michigan said its monthly index of consumer sentiment fell slightly for the first part of this month instead of rising as most financial analysts had expected. University analysts attributed the decline to concerns about inflation (John M. Berry, The Washington Post, April 13, page E1). Escalating oil and energy prices, particularly for gasoline, pushed wholesale prices up 1 percent in March, compared with increases of 0.2 percent in February and 0.1 percent in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported April 12. The price of finished energy goods rose 5.5 percent in March compared with a 0.4 percent increase in February. The so-called core rate of wholesale inflation -- finished goods minus food and energy -- rose 0.1 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). Sharply higher gasoline costs drove up wholesale prices in March by the largest amount in 14 months, the government reported today. In addition, shoppers hit by higher energy bills, spent modestly on other items. The government reports released today suggested that the economy was hitting some rough patches. Though many economists believe that the surge in energy prices is temporary and note that oil prices have retreated, the increase helped make consumers less willing to spend (Associated Press, The New York Times, April 13, page B4). Businesses worked off excess stocks of unsold goods in February for the 13th month in a row, potentially setting the stage for ramped-up production in the future. The Commerce Department reported today that unsold goods on shelves and back lots fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent in February. The drop came even as businesses' sales declined by 0.9 percent. One of the biggest sources of the national economy's weakness has been aggressive inventory liquidation by businesses. To cope with lackluster sales, manufacturers sharply cut production and companies ended up heavily discounting merchandise, which began piling up as the economy slowed (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nandotimes.com/business/story/361432p-2932024c.html). More than 7 months after September 11, some of the heightened workplace precautions predicted in the days following the attacks haven't materialized. For example: Just 15 percent of employers reported that background checks on employees are more comprehensive now than before September 11, according to an online poll by the Society for Human Resource Management. Just 18 percent of human resource professionals reported their companies had been restricting business travel, according to a November survey by workplace law firm Jackson Lewis. About half of Americans say its very or somewhat likely there will be another attack, a recent USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll showed. That's down from more than 80 percent in October. But demand for security guards remains high in areas such as Boston, New York, Washington and Pennsylvania, experts say. "If there's a decline, it's more like a denial that something will happen," said Guardsmark CEO Ira Lipman, adding that tapering demand has been seen in some small towns and the South. And some mail precautions have also persisted. The Jackson Lewis survey found about half of companies had changed mail handling procedures since September 11 (USA Today, page 1B). Faculty salaries at the nation's colleges and universities rose 3.3 percent in the current academic year to an average of $62,895, the largest increase in 11 years, the American Association of University Professors reports. The association's report predicts that the increase in faculty salary will be smaller in 2002-03 because of the economic downturn that peaked after the events of September 11. The sagging economy did not dent the current raises because they were set at the end of the last school year. The report showed sharp differences in pay among the nation's academic institutions, with research universities and the most selective colleges paying professors far more than colleges that focus on drawing students from their regio
BLS Daily Report
RELEASED TODAY: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.6 percent in March, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 178.8 (1982-84=100), the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. For the 12-month period ended in March, the CPI-U increased 1.5 percent. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also increased 0.6 percent in March, prior to seasonal adjustment. The March level of 174.7 was 1.2 percent higher than the index in March 2001. RELEASED TODAY: Real average weekly earnings were about unchanged from February to March after seasonal adjustment, according to preliminary data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A 0.3 percent increase in average hourly earnings was offset by a 0.3 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Average weekly hours were unchanged. Lingering weakness in the U.S. labor market makes it unlikely that private industry employers will feel pressured to boost workers' annual wages by more than about 3.5 percent over the remainder of this year, according to new Wage Trend Indicator figures released April 16 by BNADesigned as a leading indicator of private industry wage trends, the WTI predicts turning points six to seven months in advance of when they are evident in the government's employment cost index. Compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the ECI is the government's broadest measure of compensation. BLS is scheduled to release first quarter ECI figures on April 25 ( Daily Labor Report, page D-1). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Usual Weekly Earnings of Wage and Salary Workers: First Quarter 2002 <>
BLS Daily Report
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, APRIL 18, 2002: RELEASED TODAY: In May 2001, about 29 million full-time wage and salary workers had flexible work schedules that allowed them to vary the time they began or ended work, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The proportion of workers with such schedules was 28.8 percent, slightly higher than the figure of 27.6 percent recorded when the data were last collected in May 1997 and nearly double the proportion 10 years earlier. The median weekly earnings of full-time workers in the first quarter of 2002 increased 3.7 percent over the previous year, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures. BLS said median weekly wages, measured in current dollars without adjustment for inflation, climbed to $614 in the first quarter of 2002 from $605 a week in the fourth quarter of 2001(Daily Labor Report, page D-8). Data from newly negotiated contract agreements compiled by the Bureau of National Affairs through April 15 show a first-year average wage increase of 4.2 percent, compared with 4 percent in the same period of 2001. The median first-year increase for the same settlements was 3.7 percent, and the weighted average increase was 2.1 percent. Among nonmanufacturing (excluding construction) settlements, the average increase is 5.1 percent, while manufacturing contracts post an average increase of 2.5 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-14). New claims for unemployment insurance inched up even as a key gauge of economic activity suggested the country is recovering from recession. For the work week ending April 13, new claims for jobless benefits edged up by a seasonally adjusted 1,000 to 445,000, the Labor Department reports today. Meanwhile, the New York-based Conference Board said its Index of Leading Economic Indicators nudged up 0.1 percent in March to 112.3 after holding steady in February. "The recovery in the leading index suggests that economy is poised for growth through late summer," said Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein. One of the reasons why layoffs and unemployment have been rising even though the economy is improving is because businesses, which had shed workers during the slump, want to make sure the rebound is here to stay before hiring them back. That's why employment is considered a lagging economic indicator (Jeannine Aversa, Associated Press, http://www.nypost.com/apstories/business/V7004.htm). Employers are bracing for their third year in a row of double-digit increases in health care costs, according to industry consultants and analysts. The sharply higher costs could lead many employers to offer fewer health plans, reduce what they cover, or shift more costs to employees. Companies will probably face average increases of 12 to 15 percent in 2003, compared with a projected increase of 12.7 percent this year, according to Mercer Human Resources Consulting (The New York Times, page C1). Temporary managers are in demand. "One of the sure signs of a beginning (economic) recovery is the growing use of temporary workers," says John A. Challenger, chief executive of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an international outplacement firm based in Chicago. More companies are putting feelers out for managers available for temporary assignments, indicating that the "post September 11 slump" may be coming to an end, added Darlene Lepore, New England vice president of Adecco Employment Services, Inc., a Swiss company that has its U.S. headquarters in Melville, N.Y. And once the economy picks up speed, some of the managers now working on a contractual basis will be in line for full-time slots, Lepore and other employment specialists say (Boston Globe). Gasoline prices, which have soared 27 percent in the past 3 months, are headed upward in coming weeks to perhaps the third highest level ever, Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said yesterday. U.S. gas prices may hit a summer-long average of $1.46 for a gallon of unleaded regular, with a one-week peak of $1.55 sometime in May or June, as families take to the roads in warmer weather and later head off on summer vacations, Abraham said (The Washington Post, page A1). A jump in imports spurred by the economic rebound widened the U.S. trade deficit by 11.6 percent to $31.5 billion in February, according to figures released April 17 by the Commerce Department (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). DUE OUT TOMORROW: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment: March 2002 <>
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, JANUARY 29, 2001 During the economic boom times of the 1990s, the private service-producing sector accounted for 90 percent of all job growth and boosted its share of total employment to about 80 percent, according to an analysis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. At the same time that service industries -- especially those related to high-tech fields -- prospered, the manufacturing sector continued its employment decline. ... "Rapid technological transformation helped prolong the longest economic expansion on record and helped create a substantial number of employment opportunities in services," BLS economists Julie Hatch and Angela Clinton wrote in the December issue of BLS's Monthly Labor Review. Payroll employment outside of agriculture expanded by nearly 21 million workers or by 19.4 percent during the 1990s, BLS data show. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A8; reprint, page E-1). The Wall Street Journal's feature "Tracking the Economy" (page A10) shows the Thomson Global Forecast as predicting that the unemployment rate for January, to be released Friday, as 4.1 percent, in comparison with the December figure of 4.0 percent. Orders for durable goods rose 2.2 percent in December, boosted by a 14.6 percent surge in orders for airplanes and other transportation products. But orders for industrial machinery and metal products were down, as were shipments (Washington Post, Jan. 27, page E2; New York Times, Jan. 27, page B2)_As the Federal Reserve prepares for this week's meeting of its interest rate setting committee, the latest durable goods report offers a sobering reminder of the doleful state of the nation's manufacturing sector. A surge of commercial jet orders pulled overall durable goods orders up last month, but that disguised a much broader decline. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). For an economy struggling with a drop in factory orders, sagging consumer confidence, high energy prices, and a tattered stock market, the climate is adding another hurdle: an extra-cold winter nationwide. Unusually cold weather and winter storms halt construction, keep workers and shoppers at home rather than at their jobs or in stores, and disrupt shipping of goods. In numerous ways, the weather affects consumption and production -- in other words, both halves of the economy. Housing starts, for example, were up a slender 0.3 percent in December, compared with December 1999, despite the fact that last month's mortgage rates were nearly a full percentage point lower. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2). Two arms of the National Academy of Sciences -- the National Research Council and the Institute of Medicine -- found that, when teenagers work more than 20 hours a week, it often leads to lower grades, higher alcohol use, and too little time with their parents and families. Influenced by such studies, lawmakers in Connecticut, Massachusetts, Alabama, and other states have pushed in recent years to tighten laws regulating how many hours teenagers can work and how late they can work. ... A newly released study by the Department of Labor shows that 58 percent of American 16-year-olds hold jobs sometime during the school year, not including informal work like baby-sitting, while another study shows that on-third of high-school juniors work 20 or more hours each week. ... A new study by the International Labor Organization showed that American teenagers work far more than teenagers in most other countries. ... (New York Times, page A1). Contracting grows in popularity as an option for out-of-work techies, says The Washington Post (Jan. 28, page L1). "I have not seen any evidence that it's harder for a contractor to get work now than before," says the author of "The Contract Employee's Handbook," described as an idiosyncratic guide to project work. "Now they're being picked up by companies with more conservative business plans." Supporters say contracting provides the freedom to work at home, or at least to change your environment every few months -- a welcome switch for techies who are easily bored or leery of office politics. It also gives a person exposure to different technologies and management styles. ... Plus, for workers with top-line skills, billing by the hour can be more lucrative than a regular full-time job, according to a salary survey released last year by Dice.com, a Web site that tracks technology pay and posts full-time and contract jobs. But, those who have taken the leap warn that freelancing has its own faults. It seems to work best for people with a commend of the newest programming languages and a tolerance for long hours. ... application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, JANUARY 30, 2001 In 1995, the Bureau of Labor Statistics predicted that 5 of the 10 fastest growing occupations over the coming decade -- including 2 of the top 3 -- would be in health care. The bureau recently revised those projections for the years 1998 to 2008, and health care has dropped out of the top five. Now every one of the five fastest growing jobs will be computer related, the bureau says, from computer engineers (No. 1) to desktop publishing specialists (No. 5). Mike Pilot, an economist in the bureau's Office of Employment Projections, says the explosive growth of the Internet, which was barely a blip on the employment radar screen back in the mid-90s, was a significant factor in reshaping the top 10. Part of the change has to do with the increasing number of computer-related job classifications, another consequence of the growth of the industry. For example, computer support specialists and database administrators, No. 2 and No. 4, respectively, were not tracked separately in 1994. Health care will remain a growth industry. Retail service occupations like sales clerks and cashiers, already among the largest job categories, will also grow strongly. ... Included with the article is a half page of tables showing the fastest growing occupations, those gaining the most workers, those declining the fastest, those losing the most workers. The fastest growing occupations, by states, are also shown. (Dylan Loeb McClain in New York Times, page E9). Total private average weekly hours worked in December, at 34.1, was the lowest since January 1996, according to seasonally adjusted data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (The Wall Street Journal's "Work Week" column, page 1). First came falling stock prices. Then a dramatic slowdown in business profits and investment. And now come the layoffs, says Steven Pearlstein in The Washington Post (page A1). Yesterday it was two more blue-chip US manufacturers: payroll reductions of 26,000 at DaimlerChrysler and 4,000 at Xerox. That followed last week's announcement of thousands more from Lucent, WorldCom, Sara Lee, J.C. Penney, and the new AOL Time Warner. General Motors, Ford, Aetna, Motorola, Gillette, Gateway, and Chase Manhattan have also announced cuts. Even General Electric Co., long considered the world's best-managed company, warned last month that it could eliminate as many as 60,000 positions this year as it closes down its long-troubled Montgomery Ward stores, completes its merger with Honeywell, and adjusts to the slowing economy. ... Economists warn that the numbers should be viewed in context. In most instances, much of the reductions are spread over months and even years and handled through early retirements and attrition. And even laid-off workers are apt to receive continuing income support or severance payments. Furthermore, in an economy of 135 million workers where 275,000 Americans each week lose their jobs involuntarily, even a couple of months of 150,000 layoffs will add only 0.2 percentage points to an unemployment rate that still hovers around its lowest point in a generation. ... Overall, forecasters now predict that, as a result of layoffs, hiring freezes, and a slowdown in hiring, the unemployment rate will hit 4.5 percent or 5 percent by the end of this year, up from the current 4 percent. In statistical terms, that would still be relatively low by historical standards. In human terms, that would mean 500,000 to 1 million more Americans without jobs. Internet firms announced plans to lay off a record 12,828 workers in January, as more dot-com businesses are under pressure to improve performance, according to a report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Internet technology-related firms say they plan to cut 3,132 jobs in January, and firms providing professional services to Internet firms say they would cut 2,652 jobs during the month. Challenger said that although many of the first Internet firms to report job cuts were retailing firms, recent data suggest that businesses designed to build and maintain the technological elements of the Internet also are beginning to feel the effects of the slowdown. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-2). Economic growth has ground nearly to a halt, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said last week. The 2000 holiday shopping season was the weakest in a decade. Announcements of layoffs reached their highest level last month in at least 7 years, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a job placement firm in Chicago. Amid all the grimness, the December unemployment rate sat at 4 percent, only a tenth of a percentage point above its lowest level in 30 years. For now, while the jobless rate holds steady, the workweek is shrinking more quickly than it did at the start of the 1990-91 recession. ... In part, the apparent contradiction reflects nothing more than timing. The low unemployment rate gives a picture of where the economy
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 31, 2001 RELEASED TODAY: "Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment: December 2000" indicates that in December, 215 metropolitan areas recorded unemployment rates below the U.S. average (3.7 percent, not seasonally adjusted), while 106 areas registered higher rates. Forty-three metropolitan areas had rates below 2.0 percent, with 14 of these located in New England, 13 in the Midwest, 11 in the South, and 5 in the West. Of the nine metropolitan areas with jobless rates over 10.0 percent, seven were in West Coast states and two were along the Mexican border in other states. Consumer confidence dropped 14.2 points -- its sharpest decline since January 1991 -- to a 4-year low of 114.4 in January as anxiety about the near-term outlook for the labor market grew, the Conference Board reports. Its index measuring consumer confidence about present economic conditions slipped 5.6 percentage points to 170.5, but its index measuring expectations for the next 6 months plummeted nearly 20 percentage points to 77.0 (Daily Labor Report, page A-2). Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan made it clear last week that he is seriously concerned that the U.S. economy could slide into a recession if consumers react badly to reports of weak stock prices, manufacturing cutbacks and layoffs. But yesterday the Conference Board reported that its widely watched index of consumer confidence plunged to 114.4 this month -- its lowest level in more than 4 years -- from 128.6 in December. It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline (The Washington Post, page E1). As the Federal Reserve opened a 2-day meeting yesterday to set interest rates, a closely watched consumer survey reported that people's confidence in the nation's economic health had taken its biggest single-month plunge since late 1990, when the last recession was under way. Americans remain relatively upbeat about current business and employment conditions, but their expectations for the next 6 months have dropped to the lowest point since 1993. Since May, those expectations have fallen from near their all-time high to a level far below average, according to the Conference Board, a business research concern in New York that conducts the survey. The gap between people's attitude about the current climate and their expectations for the future is now wider than it has ever been in the 34 years of the poll. Economists blamed the dismal outlook among consumers on the steep drop in the stock market late last year and a recent wave of layoff plans announced by major corporations even though the unemployment rate remains at a three-decade low (The New York Times, page A1). A plunge in consumer confidence has cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates half a percentage point today, and sparked hopes by some it might even go further. When Mr. Greenspan testified last week, he emphasized the important of consumer confidence in determining whether the economic slowdown will become a recession (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). While the year-over-year growth rate for the nation's manufacturing wages fell only slightly in December, compared with a month earlier, the slowdown in the Great Lakes was much sharper. Some of that five-state region's industries, including chemicals and auto making, are in "full retreat with recession-like conditions," says Mark Zandi, chief economist for Economy.com, a West Chester, Pa., economic-consulting firm. The woes of these industries and others, including apparel, helped reduce wage gains in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. In the Southwest, weak demand for semiconductors gets the blame; the industry accounts for one out of five manufacturing jobs in Arizona. The strong wage gains in the Rocky Mountain and Great Plains states reflected in part weak year-earlier wages when Asia-led global economic ills socked the areas. Those regions, as well as New England and the Far West, probably will see smaller gains later this year, partly because their tech-sector manufacturers are struggling. (Wall Street Journal, page B16). Some enterprising employees exchange the cubicle life for pools in exotic places, says The Wall Street Journal.. In the United States last year, an estimated 24 million people regularly or occasionally telecommuted, according to the International Telework Association and Council, a Washington, D.C. nonprofit group that promotes telecommuting. This is up 21 percent from the year before. In Europe, estimates have the figure at about 10 million for the past 2 years. And in 16 Asia-Pacific countries, at least 3.3 million workers telecommute at least one day a month, up 27 percent from a year earlier, according to consultants at Jala International, Inc., in Los Angeles (The Wall Street Journal, page B1). Low-wage workers are twice as likely to become unemployed as higher-wage workers, but are only half as likely to be eligible to receive state unemployment insurance
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2001 > > RELEASED TODAY: In December 2000, there were 2,677 mass layoff actions by > employers as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits > during the month. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single > establishment; the number of workers involved totaled 326,743. The number > of layoff events and initial claims for unemployment insurance were the > highest for the month of December since the series began in 1995; part of > the increase was due to a calendar effect, since December 2000 contained 5 > weeks that ended in the month compared with 4 weeks in each of the prior > four Decembers. The total of layoff events for all of 2000, at 15,738, and > the total number of initial claimants, at 1,835,592, were higher than in > 1999 (14,909 and 1,572,399, respectively). > > The Federal Reserve Board cuts short-term interest rate targets another 50 > basis points, and economists say another half point reduction is likely by > mid-March if not before (Daily Labor Report, page A-8; The Washington > Post, page 1; The New York Times, page 1; The Wall Street Journal, page > 1). > > Real gross domestic product growth decelerated to 1.4 percent for the > fourth quarter of 2000, reaching its slowest rate of growth since the > second quarter of 1995, the Commerce Department reports. Analysts had > been expecting the GDP to grow about 2 percent, but sharper than expected > cutbacks in capital spending weakened the overall growth. For all of > 2000, real GDP grew by 5.0 percent. As economists try to gauge the > severity of the economic slowdown, many of them are counting on > productivity gains, which have been robust since 1995, to continue playing > a critical role in holding down inflation. If much of the recent > productivity gain is liked to business spending on information technology, > as a recent Federal Reserve study suggests, the outlook for technology > investment is key to prospects for productivity this year. The most recent > productivity figures compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that > labor productivity -- output per hour worked -- rose 3.3 percent in the > third quarter 2000 after jumping 6.1 percent in the second quarter. > Despite the fact that hourly compensation accelerated to a 6.3 percent > rise in the third quarter, the productivity gain kept unit labor costs to > a 2.9 percent advance. Fourth quarter productivity data are scheduled for > release February 7 (Daily Labor Report, pages D-1; D-10; The New York > Times, page 1). > > The United States economy grew at its slowest rate in more than 5 years > during the final quarter of 2000, as businesses abruptly cut their > spending on new equipment, the government said yesterday. The Commerce > Department's quarterly report depicted the $10.1 trillion United States > economy verging on a slowdown or a recession. Growth remained faster than > it had been in the first half of 1995, when the country avoided a > recession and the economy than entered one of the best 5-year periods in > history. But over the final 3 months of 2000, personal consumption was > the only part of the private sector that expanded, and in the early weeks > of this year consumer confidence has plummeted, according to two major > surveys (The New York Times, page C1). > > Sales of new homes actually rose 13.4 percent in December, more than > reversing a drop during the previous month, the Commerce Department > reports (The New York Times, page C6; The Wall Street Journal, page A8). > > The Purchasing Management Association of Chicago says that manufacturing > activity in the Chicago area had fallen this month to its lowest level in > 18 years (The New York Times, page C6). > > The American economy has hit a snag, no doubt about it, but that has not > deterred the nation's most influential economic forecaster, the > Congressional Budget Office, from issuing a much more promising projection > of the economy over the next decade than it had offered in the past. "The > dip in the economy is expected to be short-lived," Barry R. Anderson, > deputy director of the budget office, told Congress today. At the same > time, Anderson said, the office's professional forecasters believe the > economy will grow faster over the next 10 years than they had previously > thought because they now expect greater growth in worker productivity and > business investment. The forecast was that the economy would grow 2.4 > percent in this calendar year and that lower interest rates would cause it > to rebound to 3.4 percent next year. Then the growth rate is expected to > level off at an average of 3.1 percent through 2011. That average is > three-tenths of a percentage point higher than the long-range average > expected just last July. The budget office has been making 10-year > forecasts only since 1992, so their accuracy cannot be assessed. > Productivity is a measurement of the efficiency of wo
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 2, 2001: > Released Today: "The Employment Situation: January 2001" indicates that > unemployment increased in January, and payroll employment rose by 268,000. > Construction employment increased by 145,000, after seasonal adjustment, > as unusual weather patterns over the last 3 months contributed to > extremely high layoffs in January. Manufacturing experienced another > sizable employment decline over the month. Average hourly earnings were > unchanged. The number of unemployed rose by about 300,000 to nearly 6.0 > million, pushing the unemployment rate from 4.0 to 4.2 percent. > > The number of mass layoffs and the number of workers affected increased > sharply in December, according to figures from the Bureau of Labor > Statistics.There were 2,677 mass layoff events during December, resulting > in initial unemployment insurance claims filed by 326,743 persons, BLS > said. Last December's total was higher than in the prior 4 years, in part > because of a calendar effect, the agency said. December 2000 contained 5 > weeks that ended during the month, compared with 4 weeks in each of the > prior four Decembers (Daily Labor Report, page D-9). > > __California, birthplace of the high technology boom that helped carry the > nation's economy to new heights, is also setting the national standard for > layoffs. But the Midwest, bogged down in a manufacturing slowdown, is > catching up quickly. These are among the highlights of a report released > yesterday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on so-called mass layoffs, > where companies terminate 50 or more employees at once, and the employees > file for unemployment insurance. The report indicated while mass layoffs > started 2000 little changed from a year earlier, layoffs rose 54% for the > fourth quarter from a year earlier as a slowing economy prompted big > companies to make sharp cuts in their work forces Because BLS measures > only mass layoffs, which for the most part involve large companies, the > report captures just a subset of the U.S. labor market. But economists > say that mass-layoff data are nevertheless a valuable indicator (The Wall > Street Journal, page A2). > > New claims filed with state agencies for unemployment insurance benefits > rose a modest 32,000 to a total of 346,000 for the week ended January 27, > the Employment and Training Administration says (Daily Labor Report, page > D-7 > > Total personal income rose by a modest 0.4 percent in December, despite a > slowdown in the growth of U.S. workers' wages and salaries, the Bureau of > Economic Analysis says. The pace of consumer spending stayed the same in > December, as it had been in the prior 2 months -- showing a 0.3 percent > gain. However, the type of spending was different in December, with > outlays rising mainly in utilities where costs have risen sharply this > winter (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). > > The National Association of Purchasing Manager's report on manufacturing > activity declares an end to the longst period of economic expansion in the > history of the United States. NAPM said data from its survey of 350 > purchasing managers across the country showed that the overall economy > failed to grow during January for the first time in 117 months. > Manufacturing activity also failed to grow for the sixth consecutive month > in January as the purchasing managers index fell 3.1 percentage points to > 41.2 percent, NAPM said. The chairman of NAPM's Business Survey Committee > said a PMI in excess of 42.7 percent over a perod of time generally > indicates an expansion of the overall economy, while a PMI in excess of 50 > percent generally indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector > During January alone, several major companies have announced cutbacks > adding up to more than 80,000 job eliminations Purchasing managers also > reported a noticeable acceleration in prices, NAPM said (Daily Labor > Report, page A-1). > > Fresh evidence emerged yesterday that continuing weakness in the > manufacturing sector may have finally brought an end to the record-long > expansion of the U.S. economy. For the sixth month running, factory > production continued to shrink in January, even as inventory continued to > build up in warehouses and the pace of new orders declined, the National > Association of Purchasing Management reported. The Labor Department > reported that initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by 32,000, to > 345,000, last week, an increase in a series known to fluctuate widely from > week to week. On a somewhat brighter note the Commerce Department > reported construction activity grew 0.6 percent in December, largely on > the basis of modest increases in building of new schools and office > buildings. Construction of new homes increased 1.1 percent, while home > renovations declined 3.0 percent. Finally, the government reported that > spending on autos and other high-ticket items fell 1.9
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 2001 __Widespread layoffs in the manufacturing sector pushed the unemployment rate up to 4.2 percent in January, even as employer payrolls grew by 268,000, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. BLS Commissioner Katharine Abraham said in a briefing that the sharp payroll growth, following a downward revised increase of only 19,000 in December, was mostly attributable to "unusually large seasonally adjusted increases in just two areas -- construction and the federal government." Although the sharp level of payroll growth was mostly due to an anomaly caused by BLS's seasonal adjustments, economists say the report signals a significant decline in the likelihood of a recession. Gordon Richards, an economist at the National Association of Manufacturers, said the increase in jobs was three times larger than what had been expected and should help sustain consumer spending in the first quarter. ... (Brett Ferguson in Daily Labor Report, page D-1; text of Commissioner's statement, page E-1). __The nation's unemployment rate rose to 4.2 percent in January, its highest level in 16 months, as heavy manufacturers continued to lay off thousands of permanent and temporary workers. At the same time, government, hospitals, and building contractors continued to expand their payrolls during the month, providing crucial support to an U.S. economy that many analysts believe has stopped growing. Economists said the January jobs report confirms the emergence of a two-tiered economy in which auto, steel, and appliance manufacturers have sunk deep into recession while the once-booming technology sector runs in place and consumers continue to spend modestly on restaurant meals, travel, and clothes. ... (Steven Pearlstein in Washington Post, Feb. 3, page A1). __Responding to a slowing of the economy, the unemployment rate rose in January to 4.2 percent -- the highest level in 15 months -- as the number of jobs in manufacturing continued to shrink. But the huge service sector, bucking the ebbing tide in American industry, produced enough new jobs to clearly suggest that the overall economy had not tipped into recession. And consumer confidence, which fell sharply in December and early January, appeared to stabilize by the end of the month, according to the latest survey by the University of Michigan's Consumer Research Center. ... BLS said that the number of new jobs it reported for January overstated the strength of the labor market, largely because of unusual weather patterns and a shift in the Postal Service's Christmas hiring. The report showed an increase of 145,000 construction jobs and 54,000 government jobs, but Thomas Nardone, chief of the Division of Labor Force Statistics, said a more realistic number would be closer to 75,000 construction jobs and 9,000 for government. ... (Louis Uchitelle in New York Times, Feb. 3, page A1). __America's extraordinarily low unemployment rate is beginning to feel pressure from the sharp economic slowdown, but not enough to prove the entire economy has followed manufacturing into recession. ... The report was the first comprehensive look at the entire economy for January. Previous reports had found that the industrial sector's decline accelerated during the month, and the payroll report provided further confirmation. ... Katharine Abraham, who heads the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, noted that average payroll growth over the past 4 months has fallen 45 percent to 102,000 from the prior 9 months. . (Greg Ip in Wall Street Journal, page A2). The Wall Street Journal's feature "Tracking the Economy" (page A6) shows that the Thomson Global Forecast for productivity in the fourth quarter of 2000, to be released Wednesday, is predicted to show a rise of 1.5 percent. The actual productivity figure for the previous quarter was 3.8 percent. The fourth quarter increase for unit labor costs is predicted to be 3.5 percent, compared with 2.5 percent in the third quarter. "The Bureau of Labor Statistics ... is one of those places that the good government gurus like to call an 'island of excellence.' In the big bureaucratic sea, BLS sails along at a fast clip, getting the job done and doing it right," writes Stephen Barr in the "Federal Diary" feature of The Washington Post (Feb. 4, page C2). But in at least one regard, BLS is no different than the rest of the government. In the next 5 years, 24 percent of its approximately 2,570 employees will be eligible to retire. Economists make up about half the BLS staff and, as might be expected, have the largest number of retirement eligible (243 people, or 19 percent) of any of the agency's occupational groups. BLS projections also show that nearly 60 percent of senior executives and senior technical staff workers will qualify for retirement by 2005. The top white-collar grades could lose a third (GS-14) to a half (GS-15) of their numbers. "Whatever way you cut this,
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 2001
The Labor Department estimates that up to 19 million Americans now work on
line from home or some other location outside the office. The typical
"teleworker" is a 34 to 55-year-old male, usually in a high-tech,
engineering, marketing or professional position. They benefit from easier
commutes and greater job satisfaction, says Labor in a recent report.
Employers see increased retention, reduced absenteeism and lower office
overhead. More studies will be conducted for the Labor Department to
promote the practice ("Work Week" feature of The Wall Street Journal, page
1).
The National Association of Purchasing Management says growth in the
nonmanufacturing sector slowed markedly in January, falling to its lowest
level since July 1997. The industries that reported the highest rates of
growth in January were health services, public administration, mining, real
estate, finance and banking, and utilities. The industries with the highest
job growth in January were legal services, insurance, utilities, health
services, and finance and banking. Prices paid by nonmanufacturers for
purchased materials and services increased in January for the 23rd month in
a row, and, at 62 percent, rose at a higher rate than in December at 58
percent. This was the highest rise in one month since last February, but
the prices index remains "well below" the high point of 72 percent reached
in March 2000 (Daily Labor Report, page A7).
A number of middle-income Americans are digging deep to pay for their
housing, according to a graph in The Washington Post (page E2). Households
earning 30-50 percent of the median income that spent more than 50 percent
of their income on housing showed an increase of 1.57 percent between 1997
and 1999. Households that earned 50 to 80 percent of the median income that
spent more than 50 percent of their income on housing showed a 22 percent
increase and households that earned 80-120 percent of the median income and
spent more than 50 percent on housing showed a 74 percent increase between
1997 and 1999. The median income depends upon where one lives. According to
the latest census data, the median income for Washington, D.C. is $59,424 in
1998. The article quotes the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, the
National Housing Conference, and the Department of Housing and Urban
Development.
As if a slowing economy, mounting layoffs and depressed stock markets
weren't enough, middle-income Americans now face another big problem: a
shortage of affordable housing, says The Wall Street Journal (page A2). It
quotes a study by the Mortgage Bankers Association of America and the
National Housing Conference, a nonprofit affordable-housing advocacy
organization based in Washington, D.C. According to the study, the number
of families that make between 80 and 120 percent of their area median income
and suffer from "critical housing needs" rose 74 percent to 691,000 between
1997 and 1999. Families with "critical housing needs" pay more than half
their household income for housing or live in "severely inadequate housing"
as defined by the Department of Housing and Urban Development, meaning they
lack flushable toilets, hot water or other amenities. Of those families,
about 437,000 owned their homes, while about 254,000 were renters; the
problem appears to be growing more quickly for renters, the study said.
Problems in retailing are indicated by The New York Times (page C1), which
reports changes in consumer spending that are bringing about cutbacks and
consolidations. Consumer confidence in the nation's near-term economic
health has plummeted to its lowest point since 1993, the Conference Board
reported last week. Retailing is always among the first to feel the effects
of a consumer pullback in lower sales and profits. Retailers are also being
hurt by their own over-enthusiasm. During the boom of the second half of
the 1990's, retail companies expanded operations at a brisk, some say
suicidal, pace.
Surging natural gas prices in the Western United States are boosting utility
bills by 60 percent or more and forcing some energy-intensive industries to
curtail or even shut down production. But a surprisingly optimistic new
analysis by the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank concludes that the run-up
in prices won't have a significant impact on the region's economic growth
rate. The reason: Expenditures on natural gas account for only 1 percent
of the West's total economic output an the natural gas wholesale market,
deregulated for a decade, has shown itself able to respond to price signals
caused by supply demand imbalances and to bring more supply into the market
(The Wall Street Journal, page A2).
Laid-off workers find a job search no longer a cinch, says The Wall Street
Journal (page B1). Skilled professionals are able to land okay, but for
blue-collar workers jobs are elusive, lower paid. Employees with technical
training or service-industry ex
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 7, 2001: > RELEASED TODAY: BLS reported preliminary productivity data--as measured by > output per hour of all persons--for the fourth quarter and for the full > year 2000. The seasonally adjusted annual rates of productivity in the > fourth quarter and the annual average changes were: Business sector, 3.2 > percent for the fourth quarter and 4.3 percent for the annual change, and > for the Nonfarm business sector, 2.4 percent for the fourth quarter and > 4.3 percent annually. > > Worker productivity growth in the United States slowed in the fourth > quarter while a key measure of labor costs increased, the government > reported Wednesday, a further reflection that the U.S. economy has cooled. > U.S. productivity, a closely watched gauge that measures how much workers > produce per hour, grew at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the final 3 > months of 2000, the Labor Department said. That was about in line with > Wall Street forecasts of a 2.5 percent increase but below the third > quarter's revised 3.0 percent rate of growth. However, unit labor costs, a > key gauge of inflationary pressures in the economy, rose at a 4.1 percent > annual rate in the quarter, up from a revised 3.2 percent gain in the > prior quarter. Analysts polled by Briefing.com had expected labor costs to > grow only about 2.8 percent > (http://cnnfn.cnn.com/2001/02/07/economy/productivity). > > Layoff announcements made by U.S.companies rose to 142,208 in January, the > highest of any month since 1993, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & > Christmas reports. Challenger, based in Northbrook, Ill., said the number > of job cut announcements in January represents a 6 percent increase over > the December 2000 announcement of 133,713 job cuts and a 181 percent > increase from January 2000, when 50,655 job cuts were announced. Although > the layoffs were spread broadly throughout several economic sectors, they > were most severe in the automotive industry, which announced it would > eliminate 35,959 jobs. The telecommunications industry announced the > second-largest number of layoffs during January with 22,060. The retail > sector, affected by store closings that included J.C. Penney and Sears, > announced plans to lay off 15,344 workers, Challenger said. The latest > mass layoff report from the Labor Department, which tracks job reductions > through the unemployment insurance data system, confirmed that layoffs > have risen sharply in recent months. Mass layoff events in December had > risen to 2,677 and unemployment insurance claims were filed by 326,743 > persons, the most since the agency began collecting the data in 1995 > (Daily Labor Report, page A-4). > > American businesses announced the most job cuts in January for any month > since a placement firm started tracking such reports 8 years ago. > Businesses announced plans to cut 142,208 jobs last month, up 6.3 percent > from the 133,713 cuts announced in December, according to placement firm > Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Announcements of job cuts are not the same > as layoffs because many of the reductions will be made through attrition > or early retirement, analysts say. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2 > percent in January, the highest in more than a year, the Labor Department > reported last week. Businesses also added 268,000 jobs last month, the > most since 410,000 in April. Construction accounted for most of the gain > (Bloomberg News in The New York Times, page C9). > > President Bush will present a budget outline to Congress this month, and > if he keeps his pledge, he will ask for a 6.8 percent -- $3.1 billion -- > military raise by 2002, says Stephen Barr, writing in "The Federal Diary". > Under the formula, military raises are calculated at 0.5 percent above the > Labor Department's Employment Cost Index, which tracks wage increases > across the nation. For 2002, the formula would give the military a 4.6 > percent raise. Bush's extra billion translates to an additional 2.2 > percent, putting the total raise to 6.8 percent. (Washington Post, page > B2). > > Consumers everywhere but in the South Central states were less upbeat > about the economy's prospects in January compared with December, according > to a Conference Board survey. The falloff was particularly pronounced in > the Great Lakes, Mid Atlantic, and New England states, says Lynn Franco, > who oversees the survey asking consumers to look at the economy both now > and 6 months out. Even in the Rocky Mountain states, households are still > sanguine about the present but increasingly wary of conditions 6 months > down the line. Confidence in Pacific states, where the survey was taken > as California's energy crisis worsened, fell to a level indicative of a > recession 6 months from now. Confidence increased or remained unchanged > only in South Central states, which were boosted by their energy > industries and new auto factories, says the chief e
Tax Cuts
> This is a memo that I am circulating inside the Beltway, for comment. At > one point, before people started telling me that the Bush tax cut was > about to roar through in record time, I thought that it could make a > difference in the large. Nonetheless it may still be of interest. The > text and the attachment are the same. > > Dave Richardson > > > > > PROBLEM : Despite the fact that they lost the presidential > election, the Republicans have moved to seize power with a speed and > thoroughness that is unprecedented in recent memory. In part, this is > because the R's have grabbed the big megaphone and used it to set the > agenda. At the same time, they have been able to walk nimbly away from > their missteps, e.g., Linda Chavez, as well as their naked power plays, > first in stealing the election and then blocking the count so that it > stayed stolen. > > As the R's attempt to make their changes permanent, their first step is > their tax cut plan, apparently about to roar through Congress with about > as much opposition as against Ashcroft and Nelson. This stratagem, if > successful, will mark a basic change in the direction of US policy, a > change on the order of that brought about by the election of 1980 if not > that of 1932. The changes on the horizon include that > 1.Elections are not taken seriously in the sense that the most votes > wins; > 2.The economic interests of the people are irrelevant; > 3.The D's do not care enough about 1 and 2 to do anything serious > about them > 4.Despite the fact that the overwhelming majority are against. > The D's have great issues here, issues that could propel them into power > for the indefinite future. But the issues won't win unless they are > exploited, and in their complacency the D's are showing no sign that they > willing to exploit them. Indeed, the D's seem content to wait, in the > mistaken assumption that the issues themselves will galvanize the voters. > The result is that anger is focused as much on the D's as the R's. We > always knew that the R's hated us, but abandonment by the D's is like > betrayal by a family member. > > SOLUTION : In the most general terms, this is a public > relations battle. What is at stake is the perception of the parties in > the minds of the people. This could prove to be a pivotal moment in that, > with the change in government, peoples minds are changing, and the result > of people's changed minds will be with us for quite some time. > > The solution for the D's is really very simple: align themselves with the > people on both the election and the tax cut. Tinkering about the edges > won't do it: the D's must come out for democracy now* and tax cuts for the > people. None of the R's bills actually have to pass provided the D's > constantly remind their constituents and the media that they won the > election and that they are for cutting the people's taxes. > More specifically, the R's have made themselves vulnerable by actually > proposing a specific tax cut. This will be a catastrophe for working > America, for the 80-90% of the population whose main income comes from > work or a retirement based on past work. The Bush tax cut involves an > enormous medium/long term shifting of the tax burden away from those who > can afford to pay to those who are just making ends meet. > > The D's have made a mistake in emphasizing budget discipline, questioning > whether we really can afford a tax cut. This is a good question, and we > probably can't afford it. It is also terrible politics: we should always > be in favor of reducing taxes on working people in any and all situations. > When W gets on the radio and says that his tax cut will reduce taxes by > $1800/year for the average American family, it is a lie.** It is also > terrific politics, especially since he delivers the lines so convincingly. > > One way to deliver a tax cut fairly to all working families was outlined > in a Feb. 1 NY Times op ed by Harvard Prof. Richard Freeman and EPI's > Eileen Appelbaum. It is dead simple: just present every permanent > resident with a $500 dividend check from the government. Although Freeman > and Applebaum don't say it explicitly, if there is a need next year, do it > again. The virtues of this plan are that > 1.It is simple: everyone knows what they will get; > 2.Almost everyone would get more than they would under the Bush plan; > 3.It could be part of a counter-cyclical macroeconomic policy; > 4.It wouldn't write bad law into the tax code; and > 5.If they had to give tax relief to everyone, the R's would probably > back off. > The main defect of the Freeman-Applebaum plan is that it cannot be passed. > However, passing nothing is surely better than passing (some variant of) > the Bush plan, since anything that passes will have the net effect of > shifting the tax burden to working people from the affluent. We get no > credit from im
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 8, 2001: > Reflecting the overall economic slowdown, the pace of productivity growth > moderated in the nonfarm business sector to a 2.4 percent annual rate of > increase in the fourth quarter of 2000, according to the Bureau of Labor > Statistics. For all of 2000, nonfarm productivity climbed 4.3 percent -- > the strongest performance since 1983. One of the few unfavorable pieces > of news in the productivity report was the 6.6 percent rise in > compensation per hour in the nonfarm sector during the fourth quarter. > Unit labor costs accelerated to a 4.1 percent advance, reflecting the > sharp rise in compensation. For all of 2000, the 4.3 percent productivity > gain helped to offset the 5.1 percent jump in compensation, resulting in a > 0.7 percent rise in unit labor costs (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). > > "It sometimes takes a slowdown to confirm a gain," writes John M. Berry in > The Washington Post (page E1). Usually when U.S. economic growth slows > sharply, as it did in the second half of last year, business efficiency > also takes a nose dive. Typically, gains in labor productivity -- the > amount of goods and services produced for each hour worked -- become very > weak or turn into declines. Some analysts expected that to happen this > time. But so far, at least, it hasn't. And that lends weight to the > growing belief that the U.S. economy has changed in fundamental ways that > should enable it to grow on a sustainable basis more rapidly than in > decades past. The Labor Department reported yesterday that labor > productivity at firms other than farms rose at a 2.4 percent annual rate > in the fourth quarter, even though the output of goods and services > increased at only a 1.2 percent rate. The third-quarter productivity gain > was also greater than the increase in output. > > Despite the slowing economy, American workers increased their productivity > at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the last 3 months of 2000, a gain that > was higher than expected, the government reported. At the same time, > workers' hourly compensation, adjusted for inflation, rose at an annual > rate of 3.8 percent, the fastest growth since the first quarter of 1998 > (The New York Times, page C16). > > The U.S. economy continued to make productivity gains last quarter, but at > a slower rate consistent with the cooling in overall growth. The Labor > Department said nonfarm business productivity rose at a seasonally > adjusted annual rate of 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2000. That > is slower than the third-quarter increase of 3 percent, revised downward > from an initial estimate of 3.3 percent, and significantly below the 6.3 > percent gain reported in the second quarter (The Wall Street Journal, page > A2). > > The U.S. rustbelt is once again feeling the pain of an economic slowdown, > says Karen Pierog in a Reuters story with a Chicago dateline, in the Los > Angeles Times (February 2). Job layoffs were way up in the Midwest > compared to other parts of the country in December, according to the > Bureau of Labor Statistics. The agency reported this week that layoff > events that involve at least 50 employees at a single company doubled to > 1,079 in the Midwest in December, compared to 531 in December 1999. The > number of workers getting the bad news ballooned to 157,486 from 67,805 a > year ago. "It's a manufacturing story, mostly," said a senior economist at > the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He said that most of the layoffs > occurred in the manufacturing sector, which is still highly concentrated > in the Midwest. Manufacturing strongholds like Michigan and Ohio, which > suffered through past recessions, saw a surge in job losses. Layoffs in > Michigan more than quadrupled in December from November, while they more > than doubled in Ohio, according to the labor statistics bureau. Illinois > and Wisconsin also saw increases in layoffs. The Chicago Fed's economist > said a better picture of the Midwest economy will be formed with the > release of layoff data for January. He said that data should show if the > December increases were a quirk or if a trend is emerging. However, John > Challenger, executive vice president of the international outplacement > firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said more job layoffs are looming, > spreading from manufacturing to the high technology sector. > > The Labor Department reported that the number of workers losing their jobs > in mass layoffs -- whose in which a company fires 50 or more employees -- > rose 54 percent in the fourth quarter of last year compared with a year > earlier. In California, more than 154,000 people lost their jobs, a 14 > percent hike from the 1999 period. Yet the January employment report > showed the nation added 268,000 net jobs last month. The U.S. > unemployment rate has stayed low in part because small and mid-size > companies continue to hire even as larger companie
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 9, 2001: > > RELEASED TODAY: "Major Work Stoppages in 2000" indicates that major work > stoppage activity rose in 2000 after hitting record lows in 1999. > Thirty-nine major work stoppages began during the year, idling 394,000 > workers and resulting in 20 million workdays of idleness (about 6 out of > every 10,000 available workdays). Comparable figures for 1999 were 17 > stoppages, 73,000 workers idled, and 2 million days of idleness. The > series, which dates back to 1947, covers strikes and lockouts involving > 1,000 workers or more and lasting at least one shift. > > The number of people filing claims with stage agencies for unemployment > insurance benefits rose by 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 361,000 for the > week ended February 3, the Labor Department's Employment and Training > Administration announces. The report marks the third consecutive weekly > increase in UI claims. The 4-week moving average for initial claims was > 331,250, an increase of 4,250 from the previous week's revised average of > 327,000. Government reports from last week indicated that the nation's > unemployment rate climbed to 4.2 percent in January, the highest level in > 16 months, highlighted by a loss of 65,000 manufacturing jobs (Daily Labor > Report, page D-1). > > January proved to be a markdown month for most of the nation's retailers > after a disappointing holiday season, but while some chains benefited from > last month's selling spree, others warned of earnings shortfalls as a > result of the discounting. Over all, retail sales in stores open at least > a year, a crucial industry measurement, rose 3.4 percent last month, > according to the Goldman Sachs retail composite index. They rose just > one-tenth of one percent in December (Reuters in The New York Times, page > C4). > > Retailers took a dose of strong medicine in January, slashing prices in > order to successfully clear out excess winter inventory after a > disappointing holiday shopping season. But while the lower prices will > hurt many retailers' fourth-quarter earnings, most merchants now have > healthier outlooks for the spring season, having gotten ride of old > inventory. This year the traditional January clearance discounts were > steeper than ever, analysts said, leading to slightly stronger than > expected sales and thus lower than average inventory levels at the end of > the month (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). > > The very technology that is powering the Information Age is also leaving > many of its workers with a painful malady: repetitive motion injuries, > says USA Today (page B1). Ergonomic injuries are afflicting technology > workers as young as 20 to 30 years old, many of whom have been using > computers since childhood. Some problems are severe enough to end careers > that have barely begun. Blame the problem on the long workweeks typical > among those in high-tech, an infatuation with technology so strong that > workers often spend their free time online, and a lack of attention by > many start-ups to ergonomic issues and training. > application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
> BLS Daily Report, Monday, February 12, 2001: > > The number of work stoppages involving at least 1,000 workers surged from > 1999's all-time law of 17 to a 6-year high of 39 strikes or lockouts > during 2000, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. > The 39 work stoppages resulted in 394,000 employees being idled and 20 > million workdays being lost, more than 4-times the average number of 4.57 > million workdays lost annually during the 1990s. BLS says the jump was > almost entirely due to a strike of 135,000 actors working in radio and > television commercials (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). > > How to keep key employees satisfied in the face of a business downturn is > an old-economy lesson nearly as important as profitability, and one that > high-tech companies have been slow to learn, says Carrie Johnson in an > article in The Washington Post (February 11, page L1) on union organizing > at Amazon. That company's dismissal in January of 1,300 people in Seattle > and at a Georgia distribution center have created problems. Most of the > criticism has focused on a separation agreement the company asked its > departing customer-service employees to sign. In exchange for 12 weeks of > severance pay, a share of a stock trust fund that will mature in 2003, and > a $500 bonus for staying on board until May, employees were asked to give > up their rights to sue Amazon and to refrain from criticizing the company. > > > Internet and e-commerce companies plan to use salary increases averaging > 8.6 percent -- the highest in the technology industry -- and other perks > to attract and retain employees this year according to Watson Wyatt > Worldwide. New hires receiving bonuses include 34 percent of senior > executives, 22 percent management, 22 percent professional/technical, and > 6 percent non-exempt. Companies plan to use the following measures > measures to attract workers, with 50 percent employing opportunities for > bonuses, profit sharing, etc., 50 percent hiring bonuses, 45 percent > modified work hours/days, 38 percent telecommuting, 30 percent perks, and > 8 percent enriched relocation packages (The Washington Post, page E2). > > Professional apartment managers find that their rent is low, but the > stress is high, says Leta Herman in the "Apartment Living" supplement of > The Washington Post (February 10, page 7). She quotes one person in such > a job as saying "This job is based 90 percent on attitude and 10 percent > on skill." But nowadays property managers have all sorts of > certifications to tack onto their names, even a 4-year college degree. The > field is female dominated, except at the corporate level, says one > property manager. A large number of managers are in the 40 to 60 age > bracket, and this may be a second or third career. In larger complexes the > jobs break down into a number of areas. The sales or leasing agents show > the apartments and rent them. The maintenance and repairs staff (also > called service technicians) are responsible for fixing the things that > break -- toilets, sinks, heating, and so on. There are many other types > of apartment jobs -- guards, groundskeeper, concierge, office clerk and > janitor, to name a few. The managers and assistant managers of larger > properties supervise all the staff and fill in the blanks. In the smaller > buildings, you still need to be a jack of all trades. In smaller > properties, you typically work for rent credit. In the mid-range > buildings, 40 to 70 units, you'll typically get a full rent credit. > Beyond 70 units, you typically get more than full rent credit. For > example, with 120 units, you might get free rent plus $1,000 to $1,500 > cash (a month), depending on the area and supply and demand. According to > the U.S. Department of Labor, property manager salaries vary greatly > around the country, from the low $20,000 range up to $55,000 in > metropolitan areas such as San Francisco, New York, and Los Angeles. > > Though economists are expecting this year to be the economy's worst since > 1991, only a tiny percentage think the economy is in a recession, a new > survey has found. Just 5 percent of forecasters surveyed by Blue Chip > Economic Indicators say that the U.S. has slipped into a recession. That > is in spite of a consensus forecast of just 2.1 percent growth in > inflation-adjusted gross domestic product this year, which would be the > slowest since 1991, when the economy shrank 0.2 percent (The Wall Street > Journal, page A2). > > The Wall Street Journal's feature "Tracking the Economy" (page A20) shows > the Producer Price Index forecast for January, due out Friday, at+ 0.3 > percent, according to the Thomson Global Forecast, in contrast to 0.0 > percent for December 2000. The index, excluding food and energy, will be+ > 0.1 percent if it matches the forecast, compared to 0.0 percent for > December 2000. > application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 13, 2001: > > The unemployment line is becoming a relic of the past, says The Wall > Street Journal in its "Work Week" feature (page A1). With an eye on cost > savings and ease of use, most states are adopting telephone-based > unemployment insurance systems. "It's more efficient," says New York's > acting labor commissioner, who says it helps cut fraud as well. > > Economists are watching those who traditionally suffer early in a downturn > and those at-risk workers drawn to the labor market by tight labor and > welfare to work. One group being watched is black female workers who saw > their unemployment rate rise to 7.3 percent in January, from 5.7 percent > in December. The number tends to bounce around, so many economists are > waiting for February's results. Still, "It suggests there's a real > problem here," says a National Urban League official. Several > welfare-to-work groups say they haven't seen job losses, perhaps because > these workers are paid less, says the executive director of a Chicago > welfare-to-work program. But a person who handles public and private work > force development program notes that higher unemployment could mean job > losers are looking for work instead of leaving the labor force (The Wall > Street Journal in its "Work Week" feature, pageA1). > > Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will be treading a fine line when > he testifies before the Senate Banking Committee today. He must convince > rattled consumers the economy is on track while letting Wall Street > investors know that the Fed will keep cutting interest rates to boost > economic growthGreenspan is trying to avoid crumpling consumer > confidence at a time when consumer spending is vital to preventing a > recession. Last month, Greenspan danced around the "R" word during Senate > testimony, saying instead that economic growth was "close to zero." This > time, he's likely to lower the Fed's 3.25% growth forecast for the year. > Is the economy in recession? The consensus, so far, is that the economy > has dodged such a bullet. Only 5% of forecasters surveyed by the Blue Chip > Economic Indicators say the economy is in recession. They see growth at > 2.1% this year--the slowest pace since 1991, when the economy shrank 0.2% > (USA Today, page 1B). > application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 14, 2001: > > Retail sales picked up in January after a sluggish Christmas shopping > season, the government said today in a report showing new signs of life in > the sagging economy. Total retail sales rose 0.7 percent last month, after > gaining an anemic 0.1 percent in December, the Commerce Department > reported. Excluding volatile aotomobile sales, retail sales rose 0.8 > percent last month after being flat in December (New York Times, page C8). > > In a modestly upbeat assessment, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan > said that the economy is not in recession and that it improved somewhat in > January from the "exceptional weakness" of late last year. He also said > healthy economic growth is likely to resume later this year. > Nevertheless, Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee there is still a > substantial risk the economy could falter if business and consumer > confidence, which have declined noticeably, take a true nose dive. The > idea of an improvement in the economy was bolstered by a Commerce > Department report that retail sales rose an unexpectedly strong 0.7 > percent last month. The retail sales gain was the largest since > September, and broadly based (John M. Berry, in The Washington Post, page > E1). > > While warning that the economy still faces substantial risks, Alan > Greenspan, the Federal Reserve Chairman, said yesterday that the United > States was not in a recession and that the slowdown it was experiencing > could prove to be as short as it is sharp (Richard W. Stevenson in The New > York Times, page A1). > > Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan sounded more upbeat about the > economy than he did three weeks ago, but that didn't change expectations > that the Fed will cut interest rates again in its March 20 policy setting > meeting (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). > > The nursing workforce in the United States is shrinking while the number > of patients who will need their services is expected to grow, > representatives of the health care industry told members of the Senate > Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee's Subcommittee on Aging. > Vacancy rates for registered nurses in hospitals range from 14 to 30 > percent, said the president of the American Organization of Nurse > Executives (Daily Labor Report, page A2). > > Recruiting by Internet companies at leading business schools soared last > year, but is expected to fall sharply as the industry contracts. This > year, students say they are hoping to land jobs in established traditional > fields instead of dot-com startups (The New York Times, page C1). > > The annual pay packages of chief executives continue to soar and now > exceed $10 million among the nation's very largest public companies, > according to a survey by Pearl Meyer & Partners, an executive compensation > consultant in New York. Benefiting from a continued abundance of stock > options that make up the bulk of their pay, the average compensation for > chief executives reached a record $10.9 million in 2000, a 16 percent > increase over the previous year (The New York Times, page C2). > > Despite the widespread belief that Hispanics in the U.S. are "mired in > poverty," they are quickly climbing the economic ladder, with more than > one million Hispanic households joining the ranks of the middle class > during the past 2 decades, according to results of a study made by the > Tomas Rivera Policy Institute, a nonprofit think tank in Claremont, > California, that conducts policy research on issues affecting U.S. > Hispanics. The analysis of the Institute suggests that this upward > mobility is often obscured by the fact that the large number of poor > immigrants arriving from Latin America -- especially Mexico -- puts a drag > on Hispanic income data, contributing to a misleading portrait of the > Hispanic community. One of the report's authors says "The kids are doing > better than the parents in the labor market." A pivotal reason is > education. In fact, annual income for a U.S. born Hispanic man with a > college degree reached $60,600 in 1998, only 13 percent less than the > level for non-Hispanic whites, according to the study. A Mexican > immigrant without a high school diploma, on the other hand, makes less > than $19,000 a year on average (The Wall Street Journal, page A4). > DUE OUT TOMORROW: U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes, January 2001 application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 2001: > > RELEASED TODAY: "U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes -- January 2001" > indicates that the U.S. Import Price Index decreased 0.4 percent in > January. The decline followed a 0.8 percent decrease in the previous > month and was largely attributable to a drop in petroleum prices. The > Export Price Index gained 0.2 percent in January, after dipping 0.1 > percent in December. > > While labor demand remains strong in many areas, a small decline in the > Wage Trend Indicator suggests the weakened U.S. economy might dampen wage > pressures later this year, according to the latest WTI figures released by > the Bureau of National Affairs. Preliminary figures for the first quarter > 2001 show the WTI declined moderately to 100.69, from a revised 100.85 in > the fourth quarter. "The WTI is responsive to the weakened condition of > the economy, especially in the first quarter, which is widely expected to > be the weakest of the year," says economist Joel Popkin, whose firm > developed the measure for BNA. "If the economy remains weak, in a couple > of quarters we could see this slower growth reflected in wages," he says. > The Wage Trend Indicator is designed to predict changes in private > industry wages as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment > Cost Index (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). > > Average monthly cable-television bills climbed 5.8 percent nationwide over > the 1-year period ending in July, a boost well above the 3.7 percent rate > of inflation recorded for other goods and services during the same period, > according to a new Federal Communications Commission survey. The price > hikes came during the first full year after Congress ended federal price > controls on cable-TV bills on March 31, 1999 (The Washington Post, page > E1). > > After laying off workers, reducing shifts and deeply discounting > merchandise, businesses are working off some of their excess inventories. > The Commerce Department says inventories of goods on shelves and backlots > rose by a tiny 0.1 percent in December, to a seasonally adjusted $1.22 > trillion. That matched the increase in sales, which rose to $896.8 > billion. The 0.1 percent rise in inventories was the smallest since the > same-size increase registered in January 1999 (The Washington Post, page > E2). > > Business inventories rose only a bit in December, as companies slashed > production in response to the slowing economy. That news eased some > concerns that excess inventories were continuing to grow and could > eventually tip the economy into a recession if companies adopted sharper > production cuts to bring stocks in line with sales (The Wall Street > Journal, page A2). > > Productivity, the goods and services produced from each hour of work, is > the magic elixir of economic progress, says The Wall Street Journal in its > "Capital" feature (page A1). Productivity grew at about 2.7 percent a > year for the quarter century after World War II. Around 1973, it slowed > mysteriously to about 1.5 percent a year, and then perked up around 1995. > For the past couple of years, productivity has been growing at better than > 3 percent a year. Economists dissecting data agree that something big > happened, and that it has to do with information technology. They > disagree on details. But will productivity growth hold up? Federal > Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, the one economist whose opinions actually > count, remains an optimist. One reason, he said this week, is that > productivity growth stayed strong when the economy weakened late last > year, an unusual and heartening development. > > Gross domestic product, job growth, productivity: These numbers have a > reassuring solidity. But when it comes to economic data, the first pass > can be misleading, says Business Week (February 12, page 28). ...The > Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that private sector employment was up > by 240,000 in the 6 months ended in October 1990. ...But these gains > evaporated as the data were revised over the next couple of years. It > turned out that the BLS had greatly overstated the number of jobs created. > In particular, the "bias adjustment factor," which accounted for job > growth at new businesses, was far too high. It turned out that the number > of jobs actually fell by 240,000 over that 6-month stretch. The most > striking change, though, affected productivity data. In the months > leading up to the 1990 recession, measured productivity growth appeared to > be basically flat. But after a decade of revisions to the data, a > completely different productivity picture has been revealed. In fact, > productivity dramatically accelerated over the course of the 1990-91 > recession as companies chopped jobs. No one knows how much -- or in which > direction -- the current numbers will be revised. Yet the lesson is > clear: Treating economic statistics as gospel is precisely the wron
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 16, 2000: > > RELEASED TODAY: "Producer Price Indexes -- January 2001" indicates that > the Producer Price Index for Finished Goods advanced 1.1 percent in > January, seasonally adjusted. January's rise followed a 0.2 percent > increase in December 2000 and a 0.1 percent gain in November 2000. At the > earlier stages of process, prices received by producers of intermediate > goods increased 0.7 percent, following a 0.4 percent rise in the prior > month, and the crude goods index advanced 13.9 percent, after posting an > 8.5 percent increase a month earlier. > > Import prices fell 0.4 percent in January, as oil prices declined sharply > for the second consecutive month, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor > Statistics reported February 15. The value of all imported commodities > slipped to an index level of 99.4 percent of 1995 levels, while the value > of all exported commodities climbed 0.2 percent to an index level of 96.6 > percent in January (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). > > Import prices fell for a second consecutive month in January as the cost > of oil and industrial supplies continued to decline, the government said > yesterday. Separate reports showed that industrial activity in the > mid-Atlantic region shrank for a third month in February, while initial > jobless claims in the last week dropped more than expected. Export prices > rose by an unremarkable 0.2 percent in January, after falling 0.1 percent > in December. In a separate report, the Federal Reserve Bank of > Philadelphia's business outlook survey underscored weakness in > manufacturing, which, along with tame prices, left the door open for more > interest rate cuts. Yet the Philadelphia Fed said the outlook for the > months ahead had improved. Its index improved to minus 30.5 from minus > 36.8 in January (Reuters in The New York Times, page C6). > > Import prices fell for the second straight month in January, as petroleum > prices slipped, suggesting that imports continue to act as a damper on > prices in the U.S. In a separate report, the Labor Department said new > claims for unemployment benefits declined last week for the first time in > 4 weeks. But the drop didn't signify further labor market tightening (Dow > Jones Newswires, in The Wall Street Journal, page A2). > > New claims filed with state agencies for jobless benefits decreased by > 11,000 to a total of 352,000, seasonally adjusted, for the week ended > February 10, the Employment and Training Administration of the Department > of Labor reports. The 4-week moving average of initial UI claims -- the > figure that is more closely watched by analysts than the more volatile > weekly total -- climbed to 345,000 for the period ended February 10, up > 12,000 from the previous week's revised average of 333,000 (Daily Labor > Report, page D-3). > > New claims for state unemployment benefits declined last week for the > first time in 4 weeks, but were still in the range indicating that > companies' appetite for workers has diminished. It was the first decline > since January 13, when claims dropped by 40,000 (The Washington Post, page > E2). > > With the number of union members on the decline, the AFL-CIO Executive > Council used its annual winter meeting to focus a great deal on > organizing. Last month the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the > percentage of workers belonging to unions slipped to 13.5 percent. Mark > Splain, the Federation's organizing director, told BNA Feb. 15 that there > were "frank discussions" during the meeting because organizing is "off > pace." Splain said unions affiliated with the AFL-CIO organized about > 350,000 workers in 2000, compared with 600,000 the year before. "The > numbers are not where they should be," he added. In August, the executive > council announced a plan to recruit 1 million members a year. Splain said > there never was an intent to grow to that pace immediately. AFL-CIO > President John J. Sweeney said Feb. 12 the federation is targeting an > organizing goal of 700,000 this year and 1 million in 2002 (Daily Labor > Report, page AA-3). > application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 2001
An expected jump in energy prices was largely responsible for a 1.1 percent
rise in producer prices of finished goods in January, according to figure by
the Bureau of Labor Statistics. January's advance in the finished goods
producer price index was the largest monthly gain since a 1.3 percent jump
in September 1990. Energy prices received by producers climbed 3.8 percent
last month. (Daily Labor Report, page D-9).
The Labor Department said producer prices for finished goods shot up 1.1
percent last month, the biggest jump in a decade and far more than analysts
had expected, as a result of higher costs for food, energy, tobacco products
and new vehicles (John M. Berry in The Washington Post, February 17, page
E1).
The Labor Department said the producer price index, a broad measure of
wholesale inflation, grew 1.1 percent in January, far outpacing economists'
expectations for a 0.2 percent rise ("Credit Markets" feature in The Wall
Street Journal, page C19).
The Wall Street Journal feature "Tracking the Economy" (page A6) says that
the Consumer Price Index for January, to be released tomorrow, will be 0.3
percent, according to the Thomson Global Forecast. The previous month's
actual increase was 0.2. Excluding food and energy, the January CPI is
predicted to be 0.2 percent, in contrast to 0.3 percent for December.
For all the fear that layoff announcements generate, the reality behind each
company's move is often more complicated than a single headline number
suggests, says David Leonhardt in The New York Times (February 19, page 1).
"When a company announces 5,000 layoffs, said Patrick Carey, an economist
who studies job cuts for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, "sometimes 5000
people aren't being laid off." Even in difficult times, many analysts say,
a torrent of layoff announcements can overstate the economy's problems. Over
the last seven years, there has been little apparent relationship between
the number of announced layoffs across corporate America, and the
unemployment rate, a recent study by Lehman Brothers found. But the Lehman
Brothers economist who studied jobcuts says "Bad news about the economy does
influence consumers' spending. It does tend to put a damper on their
willingness to borrow."
According to the Christian Science Monitor, every day seems to bring news of
another company laying off thousands of workers, but the situation is not as
bad as it seems. There are several factors at work here: many companies are
announcing downsizing, but plan to accomplish this over several years and
through attrition; some of the cutbacks are conditional; and while many
firms are letting workers go, others are hiring. The result: Economists who
follow layoffs say the actual numbers so far are not out of the ordinary.
Over the past six years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has found that
the economy averages about 1 million to 1.2 million permanent layoffs (at
least 50 people let go for 30 days or more) per year. So far, there has been
only a minor uptick in the unemployment rate. "I haven't seen any signs of
the bottom dropping out - it's too soon to reach that conclusion," says
Lewis Siegel, senior BLS economist. (The Christian Science Monitor,
http://www.csmonitor.com/durable/2001/02/20/fp1s1-csm.shtml).
John J. Sweeney, president of the AFL-CIO, gave an unusual do-or-die warning
at a meeting of labor leaders in Los Angeles, telling them that unless
unions did far more to increase their ranks, organized labor could drift
into irrelevance. The percentage of American workers belonging to unions
fell to 13.5 percent from 13.9 percent last year. That is the lowest level
since the number of unionized workers peaked at 35 percent in the 1950's.
Even though more than 16 million jobs have been created since 1992, the
Bureau of Labor Statistics found that the number of union members nationwide
has slipped by 200,000 since then, to 16.2 million (The New York Times,
February 19, page A10).
Industrial production fell 0.3 percent in January, marking the fourth
monthly decline in a row, the Federal Reserve says. The drop brought the
industrial production index down to 147.0 percent of its 1992 average, and
was concentrated in the auto sector and utilities. The National Association
of Manufacturers, for its part, said the slowdown in the industrial sector
is beginning to ease (Daily Labor Report, page D-5; The Wall Street Journal
page 1 graph is of industrial production 1998 to the present).
A report by the Pew Internet and American Life Project found that the number
of American adults with Internet access grew by 16 million the last 6 months
of 2000. That brings the total number of adults using the Internet in the
United States to 104 million, or 56 percent of the adult population. Women,
minorities, and people earning $30,000 to $50,000 were among the population
segments of Internet users that grew the most from last spring, when the
project d
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 2001: > > RELEASED TODAY: "Consumer Price Index: January 2001": indicates that the > Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent > in January, before seasonal adjustment, to a level of 175.1 (1982-84=100). > For the 12-month period ended in January, the CPI-U increased 3.7 percent. > On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U also increased 0.6 percent in > January. This was its largest monthly advance since a 0.6 percent rise in > March 2000. The energy index rose 3.9 percent in January, accounting for > over one-half of the overall CPI-U increase. The index for energy > services rose 7.7 percent, largely as a result of a record monthly > increase in the index for utility natural gas -- up 17.4 percent. The > index for petroleum-based energy was unchanged in January. The food index > increased 0.3 percent, following a 0.5 percent rise in December. > Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.3 percent in January, > following an increase of 0.1 percent in December. A larger increase in > shelter costs and an upturn in the price of cigarettes were the principal > factors accounting for the acceleration in January. > > "Real Earnings in January 2001" indicates that real average weekly > earnings were unchanged from December to January after seasonal > adjustment, according to preliminary data released today by BLS. A 0.6 > percent increase in average weekly hours was offset by a 0.6 percent > increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical > Workers (CPI-W). Average hourly earnings were unchanged. > > Each day brings another mass-layoff announcement from a blue-chip company. > Yet the unemployment rate has ticked up 0.2 percentage point since > December, just a fraction over what the government calls statistically > meaningful. Could we be heading toward a paper, not a paycheck recession, > where economic growth eases and stock prices swoon, but unemployment > remains below its average of 5.6 percent of the past 10 years? Or is > unemployment lurking out there in the months ahead, reach to pounce once > employers give up hope of a quick turnaround, asks Steve Liesman in The > Wall Street Journal (page A2). Economists are debating the point now, and > many believe that, unlike the economic recession in 1990-91, when > unemployment rose to 7.8 percent from 5.2 percent over a 2-year period, > the current economic slowdown will not be marked by a sharp rise in > joblessness. Demographics may ultimately help recently unemployed workers > land jobs. In the 1970s, the working-age population grew on average 2.2 > percent annually, as the baby boomers came of age. In the 1990s, with a > much larger economy, the working-age population is growing only 1 percent > annually, a 55 percent decline. This means the economy needs to create > only about 100,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate stable; that > is roughly the job-creation rate now. We are creating enough jobs so that > in theory, you wouldn't have much of a decline in the unemployment rate > unless the economy contracts, says Phil Rones, assistant commissioner at > the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The big layoff announcements are not > always all they seem to be. Of the 10,000 Lucent layoffs, 3,000 will take > place through attrition and 1,000 will be jobs outside the U.S. Companies > had been cutting back all through the expansion. About one million people > lost their jobs annually through mass layoffs, on average, from 1996 > through 1999. Despite the sharp increase in mass layoffs in the last > quarter of 2000, the total for the year is unlikely to be as high as that > average, says Lewis Siegel, a senior economist at BLS. > > Many economists and management consultants say layoffs hurt companies more > than they help. The evidence is very weak that downsizing boosts > productivity (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). > > Placement experts and job hunters say that in many fields, new jobs are > popping up as fast as old ones vanish. One reason: At 4.2 percent, the > unemployment rate is still near rock bottom in spite of the slowing > economy. Another is the rosy job creation data: In January, there was an > unexpected jump of 268,000. "Even with the downturn in the economy, it's > a superfueled job market, where demand outstrips supply," says the chief > operating officer of a placement agency. Prospects are grimmest for > unskilled factory workers, whose jobs continue to fall victim to advances > in technology and globalization. In 2000, they were smacked with 35 > percent of the nation's mass layoffs involving at least 50 people, > according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And for them, a new job > often means working the cash register at a convenience store > (http://ww.usnews.com/usnews/issue/010226/nycu/career.htm) > > People working part time voluntarily -- that is, those who have chosen > reduced hours, rath
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 22, 2001: RELEASED TODAY: "Extended Mass Layoffs in the Fourth Quarter of 2000" indicates that in the fourth quarter of 2000, there were 1,905 mass layoff actions by employers that resulted in the separation of 374,320 workers from their jobs for more than 30 days, according to preliminary figures. Both the total number of layoff events and the number of separations were higher than in October-December 1999. For all of 2000, however, extended mass layoff events, at 5,522, and the number of worker separations, at 1,117,183, were lower than any other year since the program began in the second quarter of 1995. The consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U advanced 0.6 percent in January amid higher prices for natural gas and tobacco products, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The core CPI-U, which excludes the volatile prices for energy and food, rose a slightly higher than expected 0.3 percent. Most of the rise in consumer prices can be attributed to the 17.4 percent increase in prices for natural gas during January, BLS says. For the year ended in January, natural gas prices were up 59.3 percent. The chief economist at Lehman Brothers, New York, says that although the overall increase in the CPI was significant in January, the latest reports show most energy prices falling over the next several months, removing most inflationary concerns. (Daily Labor Report, page D-8). A record surge in residential natural gas prices caused the consumer price index to shoot up 0.6 percent last month, the largest monthly rise since last March, the Labor Department reported yesterday. (John M. Berry, in The Washington Post, page E1). Americans paid sharply higher prices for energy in January, causing inflation at the consumer level to rise at its quickest pace in 10 months, the government reported yesterday (The New York Times, page C1).). The inflation-adjusted weekly earnings of most U.S. workers failed to grow in January, as hourly pay was unchanged over the month, according to figures from the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hours worked by production or nonsupervisory employees on nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.6 percent in January, while average hourly earnings were unchanged between December and January, which resulted in a 0.6 percent rise in average weekly pay. Real earnings estimates are compiled from the agency's monthly survey of about 390,000 nonfarm business establishments. The payroll survey represents about 80 percent of all private industry workers, the bureau said (Daily Labor Report, page D21). The Labor Department said yesterday that the average number of hours Americans spent on the job grew 0.6 percent from December to January, offsetting the price increases and leaving workers' real weekly earnings unchanged.(The New York Times, page C1). Data compiled by the Bureau of National Affairs in the first 8 weeks of 2001 show that the weighted average first-year wage increase in newly negotiated contracts is 3.7 percent, compared with 3.5 percent in 2000. The manufacturing industry weighted average increase also is 3.7 percent, while nonmanufacturing (excluding construction) agreements show a weighted average increase in 3.8 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-25). The Department of Commerce reports U.S. trade deficit in goods and services ended the year on a positive note, narrowing 0.4 percent in December, but the imbalance for 3000 widened to a record $369.7 billion. Although economists have fretted about the unsustainability of the ever-rising trade deficit, they said the narrowing gap as the year ended reflected the sharp growth deceleration in the world's largest economy (Daily Labor Report, page D-1; John M. Berry in The Washington Post, page E16). The increase in the trade deficit came as imports from China surged, giving the United States a larger trade deficit with China than with Japan for the first time (The New York Times, page C1). application/ms-tnef
Palindrome of the year
Dubya won? No way bud. application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 23, 2001: > > RELEASED TODAY: "State and Regional Unemployment, 2000 Annual Averages", > indicates that unemployment rates decreased in 33 states and the District > of Columbia from 1999 to 2000. Three of the four regions and seven of the > nine geographic divisions recorded rate declines in annual average > unemployment. The U.S. jobless rate decreased from 4.2 percent to 4.0 > percent over the year. Additionally, employment to population ratios > increased in a majority of states, with the national ratio increasing to a > record high of 64.5 percent. > > During the fourth quarter of last year, both the number of mass layoff > events and the number of persons involved rose sharply compared with a > year earlier, according to figures released by the Labor Department's > Bureau of Labor Statistics. Despite the upturn at year's end, BLS > reported that for all of 2000 the number of extended mass layoffs and the > workers affected were lower than in any year since 1995. Layoffs did not > begin to mount until toward the end of last year, as the economic slowdown > prompted many employers to trim their workforces (Daily Labor Report, page > D-4). > > The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.8 percent in January as > the average manufacturing workweek grew longer and the amount of money > available to businesses and consumers increased, the Conference Board > reports. The increase in January reverses the 0.5 percent decline > experienced in December, as six of the seven indicators that had been down > in December turned positive in January. A Conference Board economist said > although the three consecutive declines in the index met the first test of > proving an economic slowdown, the second test -- an annualized decline of > at least 3.5 percent over a 6-month time frame -- still has not been met. > "With the 0.8 percent rise in January, the overall signal remains one of > moderation in the pace of economic activity with no recession looming on > the horizon," the economist said. A key factor influencing the increase > of the leading index in January was the $38 billion gain in the money > supply. Also supporting the increase in the index was a 0.5 hour increase > in the average workweek of manufacturing workers to 40.9 hours and a 7.7 > percent decline in the average number of weekly initial claims for > unemployment insurance to 328,200, the Conference Board said. Consumer > confidence, however, weighed on the index as it continued its decline for > the sixth consecutive month (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). > > Analysts today largely dismissed a rise in a key gauge of US economic > activity last month as a temporary bounce in a troubled economy. The New > York-based Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators > rose 0.8 percent, to 109.4, in January, suggesting the economy is steering > clear of a recession. But economists said the uptick is probably just a > rebound in business activity after a slowdown in November and December > prompted in part by bitterly cold weather and two interest rate reductions > ( Washington Post, page E4). > > An important forecasting gauge for the economy rose substantially after > three consecutive months of steady decline, indicating that the economy is > cooling off rather than tipping into a full-fledged recession. The > Conference Board said the index of leading economic indicators edged up > 0.8 percent in January, after dropping 0.5 percent the month before > (Reuters in The New York Times, page C12). > > In one encouraging sign for the U.S. economy, the index of leading > economic indicators jumped 0.8 percent in January, its first increase in 4 > months and its biggest rise in more than 2 years (Greg Ip in The Wall > Street Journal, page A2). > > Initial claims filed with state agencies for unemployment insurance > benefits rose by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000 in the week ended > February 17, according to the Employment and Training Administration of > the Department of Labor. Revised data indicate that new claims for the > week ended February 10 stood at 344,000. "Claims are expected to remain > high as announced corporate layoffs in December and January set a new > 2-month record," a Merrill Lynch economist says (Daily Labor Report, page > D-2; The Wall Street Journal, page A9). > > Lump-sum bonus payment provisions were found in 12 percent of > nonconstruction contracts negotiated in 2000, according to an analysis by > the Bureau of National Affairs of 735 collective bargaining agreements > that together cover more than 908,000 workers. Fifteen percent of > agreements analyzed in 1999 and 17 percent in 1998 also included lump-sum > provisions. All three years are below the high level of 36 percent > tallied in 1988. Construction contracts were excluded because none > contained lump-sum pay provisions. Further, holiday, vacation, and other > such bonuses were not included
BLS Daily Report
A grain of salt WRT the last item: hospitals have been deliberately reducing their nursing staffs for years. The reason people are in the hospital in the first place is that they need nursing care. With this reduction in nursing staffs, the future is that the patients will have to hire their own nurses, if they can afford to. Dave - > BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, FEBRUARY 26, 2001: > > Over the course of 2000, nearly all regions posted declines in their > unemployment rates as job growth remained relatively strong until late in > the year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Northeast > experienced the largest drop in its unemployment rate -- as it fell by 0.5 > percentage point to an annual average of 3.9 percent in 2000. Nationally, > the civilian unemployment rate averaged 4.0 percent last year, down by 0.2 > percentage point from the 1999 average (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). > > In another sign that labor market tightness is likely to ease further, > Manpower, Inc. reports that its latest survey shows a drop in hiring plans > as employers look toward the second quarter. The Milwaukee-based > temporary help company found that 28 percent of the nearly 16,000 > companies polled said they plan to hire additional workers in the > April-to-June quarter. That is down from 32 percent shown for the same > quarter of last year. At the same time, the percentage of firms expecting > to cut their payrolls rose slightly -- from 6 percent a year ago to 8 > percent projecting reductions for the second quarter of 2001 (Daily Labor > Report, page A-2). > > Reversing a decades long trend, Americans are now retiring later in life, > says The New York Times (page A1). Government data show that the > percentage of people over 65 who still work has been rising since the > mid-1990's. Last year, at 12.8 percent, it was higher than at any time > since 1979. Economists and specialists on aging cite forces that include > changes in the Social Security system, a ban on most forced retirements > and the economy's shift away from back-breaking jobs like those in mining > and heavy manufacturing. There have also been advances in medicine, so > that even as more elder-friendly jobs in the service sector appear, more > people are healthy enough to fill them. But to many workers approaching > the end of their careers, the most important factor has been the erosion > of pensions, health insurance, and other retirement benefits they had > expected. > > With layoffs on the rise again, many employees are facing an uncomfortable > new choice as they walk out the door: agree never to sue their employer > or walk away with less money, says Jonathan D. Glater in The New York > Times (February 24, page A1). The agreements are perfectly legal. Their > use has increased as the threat of employment-related lawsuits has risen, > lawyers for corporations say. The number of Federal employment lawsuits > has more than doubled over the last 10 years, from 8,413 in 1990 -- 3.9 > percent of all Federal civil filings -- to 21,032 last year, or 8.1 > percent of the total, according to the Administrative Office of the United > States Courts in Washington. > > The Wall Street Journal feature "Tracking the Economy" (page A6) shows > that personal income in January, to be released Thursday, will increase > 0.5 percent, according to Thomson Global Forecast. The December personal > income figure was up 0.4 percent. > > Medical costs could be heading a lot higher. A key factor holding down > medical-cost inflation in the 1990s was relatively low wage increases for > health-care workers. For example, from 1993 to 1998, wages of private > hospital workers rose only 2.3 percent annually, less than the 2.4 percent > rate of inflation. But shortages of health care workers have become more > common in the past 2 years, and medical wages have been accelerating. In > particular, private-sector hospital wages are growing faster than overall > wages. That's one big reason why health care consultants expect medical > costs to jump 12 percent this year, the biggest gain in 10 years. > Registered nurses, for example, are in short supply. According to a study > released on January 3 by health-care consultants William M. Mercer, 32 > percent of the nearly 200 health care providers surveyed said turnover of > registered nurses was a "significant" problem (Business Week, February 26, > page 24). > application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 2001: > > Average hourly earnings for private-industry nonfarm workers in January > rose 3.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted $14.02 from the year-earlier > period, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says. But in 1982 dollars, > adjusting for inflation, wages rose by a penny to $7.89 (The Wall Street > Journal's "Work Week" feature, page A1). > > Home resales slowed to their slowest pace in a year last month, prompting > some economists to worry that one of the strongest sectors of the economy > may also be starting to deteriorate. The National Association of Realtors > reported yesterday that sales of previously owned houses, which account > for 80 percent of the total overall housing market, dropped 6.6 percent in > January -- their second big drop in 2 months -- to an annual rate of 4.65 > million units. That was still higher than the 4.54 million rate in > January 2000. Economists cited plunging consumer confidence, stock market > volatility, slower job growth and higher energy prices as reasons for the > decline, as well as a shortage of houses for sale. The January number > covers many houses sold in December, the Realtors said. U.S. economic > growth slowed sharply that month, prompting fears of recession. January > figures were mixed -- including a 5.3 percent rise in housing starts -- > which left economists divided about economic prospects (The Washington > Post, page E6). > > The National Association of Business Economists slashes its growth > forecast for this year to 2 percent from 3.4 percent, but believe tha a > recession can be avoided. A panel of 34 forecasters polled the first 2 > weeks in February expects the economy to strengthen next year to 3.5 > percent, which would be moderate when compared with growth of 5 percent in > 2000 and above 4 percent the previous 2 years (Daily Labor Report, page > A-5). > > As the economy slows, job offers are getting rescinded, says The Wall > Street Journal (page B1). Recruiters and employment attorneys say job > offer withdrawals appear regularly during economic slowdowns, when > beleaguered companies become trigger-happy and quickly cut staffers. > Start-ups often keep recruiters in the dark about low funding and other > signs of management trouble. Employers aren't generally required to > provide severance or outplacement for people whose job offers are > withdrawn. But such workers have sometimes sued to recover their > relocation expenses. > > Applications to many colleges and universities are climbing in the wake of > an economic slowdown and increase in layoffs, says USA Today (page B1). > The surge has some educators scrambling to raise admission standards and > hire professors out of retirement. Schools are receiving 10 to 40 percent > more applications than at this time last year. Much of the rise is being > attributed to workers seeking to upgrade their skills as the economy > slows, a return to the classroom by laid-off employees and efforts by > schools to upgrade programs to attract students. "The job market is still > really good, but we're beginning to see layoffs and people pay attention," > says the vice president for research and information services at the > Council of Graduate Schools in Washington, D.C. "One thing they do is go > to graduate school." > > The fastest growing industries in order of growth, according to a survey > of 947 executives and 312 executive search firms by ExecuNet.com, Norwalk, > Conn., are high-tech, communications, Internet, medical/pharmaceuticals, > and business services. The fastest growing executive functions, again in > order of growth, are sales, management information systems/information > technology, marketing, business development, and general management (The > Wall Street Journal, page B14). > > An article on what people earn, a regular once-a-year feature in "Parade" > magazine, appeared in the February 25 issue, with many facts attributed to > BLS. Says the article, "demand for college professors is expected to jump > 23 percent from 1998 to 2008 -- nearly twice the projected growth for the > overall labor force." A graph shows annual median hourly wages for 1990, > 1995, and 2000 ($10.01; $11.43; and $13.74) with the comment that although > wages have risen in the last 10 years, salaries actually have remained > relatively flat when inflation is accounted for. A table showing weekly > wages by occupation, and another showing which jobs are growing fastest, > include data attributed to BLS. > application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 28, 2001 Consumer confidence in the economy deteriorated for the fifth consecutive month in February, plunging 9 percentage points to an index level of 106.8, the New York based Conference Board reports. The business research organization says February's consumer confidence numbers are at their weakest point since June 1996, when confidence fell to 100.1. The consumer confidence survey based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households, found consumers not only view current business conditions as weak, but many expect business conditions and the employment outlook to worsen over the next 6 months (Daily Labor Report, pg. A-2). Consumer confidence fell this month to a level usually seen only during recessions, as American households' expectations about their economic future plunged, according to a report released yesterday. Two other reports on last month's new orders for durable goods -- such as cars, appliances, computers and machinery -- and sales of new homes, showed much less weakness and were not nearly as disturbing to analysts as what has been happening to consumer attitudes (The Washington Post, page E1). There is now a record divergence in the Consumer Confidence index's two components: The index of consumers' expectations for 6 months stood 40 percent lower than its September level; at the same time, consumers' assessment of their current situation is off only 10 percent since September. The director of the New York Conference Board's research center said the gap between the two components is the widest since 1967, when the data were first collected. He attributed the gap to soaring confidence in recent years combined, it appears, with recent layoff announcements (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). As the Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan prepared to testify before Congress today about the nation's economy, three reports offered new, if murky, evidence yesterday of economic weakness. Consumer confidence, which Greenspan has called a key measure for the coming months, fell in February for the fifth consecutive month, according to the Conference Board. Americans sharply slowed the pace at which they bought new homes in January, the Census Bureau said. And spending by consumers and businesses on large, long-lasting items fell last month, although the decline was largely limited to the purchase of cars and airplanes, the Commerce Department says. Investors took the new statistics as evidence that the Federal Reserve was likely to cut its benchmark interest rate for overnight bank loans either at its March 20 meeting or even before (The New York Times, page C1; The Wall Street Journal's page 1 graph is of durable goods orders, 1998 to the present). Manufacturing layoffs led to an 11 percent increase in U.S. unemployment insurance claims for the first 5 weeks of 2001 compared with last year -- the biggest jump for that period in a decade. Great Lakes states were hit hardest, with the worst showings in Indiana, up 61 percent, and Michigan, up 58 percent. Construction cutbacks caused by overbuilding in the Atlanta area contributed to the 52 percent surge in Georgia, while other South Atlantic states were hit with layoffs by textile/apparel and other nondurable goods producers. The Rocky Mountain region outperformed the nation, Utah and Colorado recorded the ninth and 10th highest increases in claims, respectively, partly because of layoffs in mining operations and smaller telecommunications firms (The Wall Street Journal, page B8). Both the amount of commercial natural-gas consumption and the price of that natural gas are increasing, according to a graph in USA Today (page 17A), whose data is attributed to the Energy Information Agency. Total commercial spending on natural gas in 1999 was $16.3 billion, $21.3 billion in 2000, and an estimated $27.7 billion in 2001. DUE OUT TOMORROW: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment, January 2001. application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, MARCH 1, 2001: > > RELEASED TODAY: "Regional and State Employment and Unemployment: January > 2001" indicates that regional and state unemployment rates generally were > stable in January. Three of the four regions posted little change over > the month, and 43 states and the District of Columbia recorded shifts of > 0.3 percentage point or less. The national jobless rate rose from 4.0 > percent in December to 4.2 percent in January. Nonfarm employment > increased in 28 states and the District of Columbia in January. > > Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan February 28 told the House > Financial Services Committee that policymakers are paying close attention > to how consumers might translate their increasingly gloomy mood into lower > spending as the economy continues its "retrenchment" that has weakened > overall growth significantly since the middle of last year. Consumer and > business demand could decline further in coming months, he acknowledged. > "But all in all, the demand for houses and consumer durables has not > matched the weakened level of confidence," he said (Daily Labor Report, > page D-1; A-9). > > Two weeks after suggesting that the economic downturn was likely to be > relatively brief, Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve Chairman, gave > Congress a somewhat more pessimistic assessment, saying the slowdown "has > yet to run its full course". He left little doubt that further interest > rate reductions were coming to follow up on the two half-point cuts made > by the Fed in January (Richard W. Stevenson in The New York Times, page > C1). > > A sharper than previously estimated decline in the accumulation of > inventories pulled fourth quarter real gross domestic product growth down > to a revised 1.1 percent, its slowest pace since the second quarter of > 1995 when it grew only 0.8 percent, according to a Department of Commerce > report (Daily Labor Report, page D-3; Reuters in The New York Times, page > C9). > > The tight labor market of the past 7 years made it easier for workers to > find new jobs when they were hit by a permanent layoff, says Business Week > in its "Economic Trends" feature (March 5, page 30). Nevertheless, those > who found new jobs still saw their weekly income fall when compared with > the wages of those workers who kept their old jobs. These are the > conclusions of a new paper by economist Henry S. Farber of Princeton > University. Farber used the Labor Department's Displaced Workers Survey, > which is conducted every 2 years. The date of the most recent survey is > February 2000. > > About 27 percent of all graduates students in science and engineering are > foreigners, and the percentage is rising, says David Wessel in The Wall > Street Journal's "Capital" feature (page 1). The number of Americans > enrolling is falling, and the number of foreigners is climbing. A strong > job market that hires young Americans away from graduate student stipends > is partly responsible. The danger is that in the years ahead, fewer > foreigners, Asians in particular, will choose to stay in the U.S. after > finishing graduate school. "Economies are doing well elsewhere, says a > CUNY dean. "When I came, a lot more students stayed. These days there > are a substantial number of students who go back -- to wherever they came > from or to some third country." Training foreign scientists may be > America's most effective foreign aid program, but scientists and engineers > are crucial to future domestic prosperity in this country, and for > American colleges to count on a continued flow of foreigners because the > profession can't attract Americans is a risky strategy. > > The labor shortage may be driving entrepreneurs crazy, but it hasn't > driven up wages for their workers, says Business Week, March 5, page F6). > About 40 percent of small-company employees got a goose egg for a raise > last year. On the other hand, small companies were twice as likely as > bigger ones to pass out huge hikes to a select few, says Fortune Personnel > Consultants. Big companies often have to boost pay because of long-term > employment contracts, says the consulting firm. Small companies have more > flexibility in deciding whether to play Santa or Scrooge. > application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, MARCH 2, 2001 RELEASED TODAY: In January 2001, there were 1,522 mass layoff actions by employers as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single establishment and the number of workers involved totaled 200,343. The number of layoff events was the lowest for January since the series began in April 1995, while the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance was the lowest since January 1996. These lower levels were due, in part, to a calendar effect, since January in both 1996 and 2001 contained 4 weeks that ended in the month compared with 5 weeks in each of the other four Januarys. ... Despite the economic slowdown, labor markets in most regions and states showed little weakness in January, as unemployment rates were stable in most areas, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Jobless rates in all regions, except parts of the Midwest, were slightly lower in January than they were a year ago, or they were virtually unchanged. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-9). New claims filed with state agencies for unemployment insurance benefits rose by 39,000 to a seasonally adjusted 372,000 in the week ended Feb. 24, the Employment and Training Administration announces. "While the job market has deteriorated over the last year, the weekly data still does not portray an economy in a recession," says a senior economist at Merrill Lynch. "We expect next week's payroll employment report to show a gain of just 65,000 for February." ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-7). >From Statement of Secretary of Labor Elaine L. Chao regarding the budget, Feb. 28, 2001: "We are also planning for increased funding to modernize and expand the vital data collection done by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is our early warning system in times of economic uncertainty. ... " Although the manufacturing sector continued to show declines in employment and new orders, it may be close to the bottom of its decline, according to figures from the National Association for Purchasing Management. Slower rates of decline are observed in six of the nine measures of manufacturing activity tracked by the organization. So far, the economic slowdown has been concentrated in manufacturing, with many service industries continuing to expand. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-8). American consumers continued to flock to car dealerships in February, despite the economic slowdown, producing another unexpectedly strong month for auto sales. Sales fell 6 percent last month from February 2000, but the year earlier month had been one of the best in the industry's history because of lavish incentives. ... (New York Times, page C1; Wall Street Journal, page A3). Personal income rose 0.6 percent and personal spending 0.7 percent in January, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, both seemingly strong numbers. But economists noted that energy-related inflation reduced real spending to just 0.2 percent and left real after-tax incomes flat. they also said that the personal savings rate fell to minus 1.0 percent -- a record low. Economists say the numbers show that consumers continued to spend in January, but analysts are divided over whether spending will remain strong enough to buoy a weakening economy. ... (USA Today, page 1B). The manufacturing sector of the economy remained weak last month, but the worst of its decline may be over, according to the National Association of Purchasing Management. Meanwhile, other reports show increases in personal income, spending, and construction in January, causing some analysts to suggest the U.S. economy will continue to grow in the last 3 months of the year. Personal income rose a strong 0.6 percent in January, with the key wages-and-salaries portion up even more, 0.7 percent, the Commerce Department reports. The big increase in pay was the result of both a solid increase in the number of workers on payrolls and the number of hours worked. Both those factors were influenced to some extent by a swing from unusually bitter winter weather in December to more normal weather in January. Personal consumption expenditures, which include spending on goods and services of all types, also increased 0.7 percent. But, after adjustment for inflation, particularly for energy services such as natural gas, the real increase was just 0.2 percent. That real gain matched that of December and was above the 0.1 percent increase in both October and November. Separately, U.S. automakers reported that sales fell 1l percent in February, which was less than forecast. Strength in housing and other construction should help the economy stay out of recession, some analysts say. ... (Washington Post, page E6; Wall Street Journal, page A2)_A gauge of manufacturing rose last month for the first time in a year, and consumer spending in January was the strongest in 4 months, two reports showed
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, MARCH 5, 2001:
>
> The University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence fell again
> last month but not by as much as expected, and the director of the survey
> said the free fall in confidence is over. "Consumers judged prospects for
> their own incomes as well as inflation more positively in February" than
> they did in January, said the director, "and they anticipated that the
> overall economy would show improvement later in the year." However, he
> cautioned that further small declines are likely in coming months, and
> that consumer spending isn't apt to rise substanially soon (The Washington
> Post, March 3, page E1).
>
> The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index has now registered
> its sharpest 3-month fall since October 1990, in the midst of the last
> economic contraction (Reuters in The New York Times, March 3, page B4).
>
> Government statistics show layoffs in the Midwest are running twice as
> fast as in the nation as a whole; the region is strongly tied to
> manufacturing, which has been hit harder than most other sectors during
> the current economic slowdown. And a slowing economy is just the
> beginning of the Midwest's potential headaches. A strong dollar is
> crimping exports of durable goods, a large percentage of which are made in
> the region. Rising prices of natural gas and fossil fuels, consumed in
> larger numbers here than in the U.S. as a whole, are taking a toll on
> corporate and household budgets. And corporate bankruptcies, some
> economists say, are beginning to pick up. Yet practically no one in the
> Midwest sees a repeat of the events that triggered in previous decades the
> Rust Belt images of abandoned mill towns, waves of bankrupt smokestack
> businesses and rapidly rising joblessness. An economist at broker-dealer
> Griffin, Kubik, Stephens says "The manufacturing sector is much more
> productive, and factories are more resilient, more robust and more
> profitable. The pain will be much less" ("The Outlook" column by Joseph
> T. Hallinan in The Wall Street Journal, page 1).
>
> The Wall Street Journal's "Tracking the Economy" feature (page A10)
> indicates that productivity figures in the fourth quarter, due from BLS
> tomorrow, will likely be 2.0 percent if they meet the prediction of
> Thomson Global Forecast. The previous actual quarterly figure is 2.4
> percent. Unit labor costs, out the same day, will likely be 4.5 percent,
> compared to 4.1 percent the previous quarter. The unemployment rate for
> February, to be released Friday, is predicted to be the same as that in
> January, 4.2 percent.
>
> The average household in six metropolitan areas -- from Houston to
> Pittsburgh -- now spends more on transportation than it does on housing.
> According to research by the Surface Transportation Policy Project,
> Houston households spent the most on transportation in 1999, an average of
> $9,237, while shelter costs were only $7,167. One factor that drives
> transportation costs is the attempt to gain more affordable housing by
> moving farther out of city centers, researchers say. In Phoenix shelter
> cost $7,725 and transportation $7,851; in Kansas City shelter cost $6,538
> and transportation $7,558; in Dallas/Fort Worth shelter was $7,358 and
> transportation $7,524; in St. Louis shelter cost $6,435 and transportation
> costs $6,790, and in Pittsburgh shelter was $4,945 and transportation
> $5,623. The study used the Bureau of Labor Statistics' annual survey of
> 28 metropolitan areas. Transportation costs include vehicle, gas,
> maintenance, insurance and public transit, but not air or ship travel.
> Shelter costs include mortgages, rent, maintenance, taxes, and insurance
> (USA Today, page 4A).
>
> Many employers are not cutting back on their use of temporary hires,
> despite the recent economic slowdown. There were about 3.7 million
> employees in temporary service jobs in January, according to preliminary
> numbers from the Department of Labor. That's down only slightly from 3.9
> million in September, and still above the 3.4 million workers employed by
> providers of employment services in January 1999. The average daily
> employment of temps in 2000 topped 3 million, according to a report to be
> released today by the American Staffing Association (ASA) in Alexandria,
> Va. That's a 4 percent increase over 1999. "Members continue to have more
> demand than supply," says an ASA executive. "Some companies are keeping
> supplemental workers on just until they figure out what's going to occur
> with the economy." Behind the continued use of temps: Companies remain
> hungry for workers because the unemployment rate is at a tight 4.2
> percent; others are trying to control costs by relying on contract workers
> for project-specific worth rather than adding full-time employees. Some
> employers are continuing to hold onto their temporary workers because they
> remain hopeful the economy wi
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, MARCH 6, 2001: > > RELEASED TODAY: "Productivity and Costs, Fourth Quarter and Annual > Averages, 2000" indicates that revised fourth-quarter seasonally-adjusted > annual rates of productivity change -- as measured by output per hour of > all persons -- and revised annual changes for the full year 2000 in the > business sector were 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter, and 4.2 as the > annual average percent change for 1999-2000. The percent change in the > nonfarm business sector for the fourth quarter was 2.2, and the annual > average percent change for 1999-2000 was 4.3. In the manufacturing > sector, increases in productivity were 5.3 percent for the fourth quarter > and 7.1 percent the annual average change in 1999-2000. The durable goods > manufacturing percent change in the fourth quarter was 6.6, and the annual > average percent change for 1999-2000 was 10.5. The nondurable goods > manufacturing percent change in the fourth quarter was 3.8, and the annual > average percent change for 1999-2000 was 3.2. > > Half the retirees in the United States have returned to the workplace to > work part time, many opting for employment in flexible work arrangements, > in contrast with the more traditional roles in the careers in which they > spent most of their working lives, according to the International > Longevity Center in New York. Retirees represent a growing segment of > experienced and willing workers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics predicted > that 25 million people will leave the labor force between 1998 and 2008, > most of them for purposes of retiring -- up from 19 million who left > between 1988 and 1998. With that in mind, BLS predicted total replacement > needs of 22.2 million workers between 1998 and 2008. Total withdrawal > from the workplace at retirement is less prevalent than is commonly > supposed, according to Kenneth Knapp and Charlotte Muller, authors of > "Productive Lives: Paid and Unpaid Activities of Older Americans". The > report, which also reviews the most recent available data on the subject > of older workers, also finds that older workers are more likely than their > younger counterparts to be engaged in certain kinds of nontraditional work > as freelancers, temporary workers, and independent contractors. (Daily > Labor Report, page C-1). > > Major work stoppages nationally due to strikes or employer lockouts rose > last year after hitting a low of 17 in 1999. The number of work stoppages > annually involving 1,000 workers or more lasting at least one work shift > are shown in a page 1, USA Today, graph. Source of the data is given as > the Bureau of Labor Statistics. > > Throughout the industrial heartland, the abrupt fallout in overtime is > sending shudders through the economy that amplify the impact of outright > layoffs. During the boom years of the 1990s, overtime bulked up the > paychecks of workers in a number of industries. Eager to pump out more > products and services, but reluctant to hire more full-time workers, > manufacturers and service providers instead pushed their employees to work > longer hours. As a result, factory overtime reached its highest recorded > levels during the period, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. > The peak for overall factory overtime came in the spring of 1997, when > average weekly overtime hit 5 hours, a 1.5 hour rise on a seasonally > adjusted basis from the end of the recession in early 1990. Auto > manufacturers posted the biggest gains, with overtime hours rising by > about 5 hours to 8.2 hours a week, on an unadjusted basis in December > 1999. Other industries increased overtime as well, including metal and > steel producers, industrial-machinery makers, and refrigeration and > service-machinery manufacturers. Computer makers and aerospace companies > were big overtime users in the mid 1990s, but their overtime levels began > to fall in 1998, according to a Labor Department study. Overall factory > overtime didn't start to fall until economic growth began to slow late > last year. But in January and February, levels dropped sharply to about 4 > hours a week from a high of 5 hours earlier in 2000 (Wall Street Journal, > page B1). > > A measure largely representing the service sector steadied in February, a > new survey shows. The National Association of Purchasing Management says > that its nonmanufacturing business index rose to 51.7 from January's 50.1, > which was the lowest since the report's inception in July 1997. A reading > above 50 means activity is expanding, while below 50 indicates contraction > (Bloomberg News in The New York Times, page C9). > > The National Association of Manufacturers used its Annual National > Manufacturing Week Survey to paint a picture of an industry in recession > because of high interest rates, rising energy costs, softening demand for > products and services and restrictive regulatory policies. The survey > reflects the v
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, MARCH 7, 2001: > > Nonfarm business sector productivity growth was revised downward to a 2.2 > percent annual rate of increase for the fourth quarter of 2000 as unit > labor costs rose to a 4.3 percent rate, the Bureau of Labor Statistics > reports. Productivity throughout the entire business sector was revised > down 0.1 percentage point to 4.2 percent. A Merrill Lynch economist said > the productivity figures were revised lower to correspond with the > downward revision of the gross domestic product to 1.1 percent (Daily > Labor Report, page D-1). > > Productivity grew at a revised 2.2 percent during the fourth quarter, > closing out the best year for worker efficiency in almost 2 decades, the > government said today. The figure was less than the 2.4 percent pace > previously estimated for the final 3 months of last year, the Labor > Department said. Still, productivity -- the measure of how much an > employee produces for every hour worked -- was stronger than the 2 percent > pace expected by analysts. A separate report from the Commerce Department > showed factory orders fell 3.8 percent in January, as bookings declined > for aircraft. Companies are cutting employee hours to limit the damage > the slowing economy is having on their bottom lines (Bloomberg News, The > New York Times, page C6). > > Secretary of Labor Elaine L. Chao has announced plans to create a new > agency within the Labor Department to be known as the Office of the 21st > Century Workforce. The new office's first responsibility will be to hold > a Summit on the 21st Century Workforce this spring, calling on leaders > from business, labor and government "to address the structural changes > that are affecting our workforce and our economy," Chao told Labor > Department employees following a formal swearing-in ceremony (Daily Labor > Report, page A-9).. > > Orders to U.S. factories fell 3.8 percent in January to their lowest level > in 14 months, fresh evidence that manufacturers continue to struggle > during the economic slowdown. But another report showed that growth in > American productivity--or output per hour of labor-- while slower, was > still solid in the fourth quarter despite the sharp economic slowdown. > The Commerce Department reported that the January decline in factory > orders, which followed a 0.6 percent increase in December, was led by a > sharp drop in demand for airplanes, cars and transportation equipment. > Separately, the Labor Department reported that productivity growth slowed > in the fourth quarter to a 2.2 percent rate, down from a 3 percent rate in > the previous quarter, reflecting the weakened state of the economy (The > Washington Post, page E2). > > Orders for big-ticket manufactured items fell in January as demand for > aerospace goods slumped. The lackluster January showing had been > expected, given the plunge in orders for durable goods reported earlier > (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). > > A recent study by economists Timothy M. Smeeding, Lee Rainwater and Gary > Burtless makes clear that U.S. poverty is far higher than the average in > other industrial nations. Using 40 percent of each nation's median > disposable income as its poverty line, the analysis found that the U.S. > was the only one among 13 wealthy nations with a double-digit poverty > rate. Moreover, its rate (10.7 percent in 1997) was more than twice the > average for the group. The authors make clear that the working poor have > lost ground in recent decades. Any benefits of wage and income inequality > "have been captured much further up the income scale" (Business Week, > March 12, page 32). > > Nonfarm payrolls likely added 73,000 new jobs in February, after > increasing by 268,000 jobs in January, based on the S&P MMS survey. > Manufacturing payrolls, however, are expected to fall by 20,000 jobs after > a cut of 65,000 workers in January. The unemployment rate is expected to > hold at 4.2 percent (Business Week, March 12, page 116). > application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, MARCH 8, 2001: > > Economic growth was "sluggish to modest" in most regions of the United > States during January and February as the manufacturing sector generally > continued its downward trend, the Federal Reserve Board says in its "beige > book" report. The report, which provides a snapshot of economic activity > in each of the Feds 12 districts, finds that only the Federal Reserve's > Boston and Richmond district banks reported growth in the manufacturing > sector. The slowing growth at firms and the rising number of layoffs > across the nation has caused labor market tightness to ease slightly in > more than half of the Fed's districts. Demand for manufacturing workers > fell throughout the Midwest. Fed officials also reported that the demand > for information technology specialists fell in Boston, and the demand for > construction workers fell in Kansas City. In the Fed's New York district, > however, a shortage of tradesmen has contributed to slow the pace of > construction of new residential and commercial buildings. Retail sales > rose modestly in January and February, but many district banks said the > sales were driven by extensive discounting to clear out winter merchandise > and reduce large inventories.(Daily Labor Report, page D-1; Washington > Post, page E4; New York Times, page C4; Wall Street Journal, page A2). > > Chronic shortages of high-tech and other skilled workers are starting to > ease in many parts of the country as layoffs rise and job-hopping abates, > a Federal Reserve survey found. The findings could mean unemployment, > which edged up to 4.2% in January but remained near a 30-year low, could > rise further. February's unemployment rate will be released tomorrow. The > Fed report, known as the "beige book," suggests demand has eased, mostly > for the best-paid workers--those in high-tech, Internet, manufacturing, > and construction jobs--while demand for entry-level, clerical and health > workers has remained strong (Wall Street Journal, page A2). > > The rush started in October, with layoff announcements calculated to > bolster lagging share prices in the midst of a stock crisis that is now in > its sixth month. The job cuts were intended to demonstrate corporate > fortitude, but many economists claim they were exaggerated and have > collectively damaged the U.S. economy. "These announcements are having a > psychological effect on consumers, who increasingly think the economy is > going to unravel," says a senior economist specializing in consumer > confidence at Economy.com, a research firm based in West Chester, Pa. > "And it can unravel if consumers spend less because retail sales are 60 > percent of the economy." The reality is that December was the worst > single month for mass layoffs in the 6 consecutive years that the > Department of Labor has been recording them, with 2,677 mass layoffs > affecting 326,743 people. The preceding month was the worst November > recorded and the eighth worst month on record, with 1,697 mass layoff > events affecting 216,514 people. But the January numbers were > typical--particularly for a month that usually has the year's heaviest > layoffs--with 1,522 mass layoff events affecting 200,343 workers. Senior > economist Lewis Siegel, who compiles the mass layoff report for the Labor > Department, says many layoffs included retired workers who weren't > replaced, rather than workers who suddenly left their families without a > paycheck. Siegel and many other economists say the news media are partly > to blame for the drop in consumer confidence because they haven't been > more skeptical of corporate motives and layoff announcements (Omaha > World-Herald Online Edition, March 8). > > Data compiled by the Bureau of National Affairs in the first 10 weeks of > 2001 show that the weighted average first-year wage increase in newly > negotiated contracts is 4 percent, compared with 3.5 percent in the > comparable period of 2000. The manufacturing industry weighted average > increase is 3.5 percent, while nonmanufacturing agreements, excluding > construction contracts, show a weighted average increase of 4.4 percent > (Daily Labor Report, page D-3). > > The vast majority of American employers say "quality of care" is "very > important" when they choose health insurance plans for their workers, but > more than two-thirds of employers do not routinely receive reports from > their insurers on the care employees are receiving, according to a > national survey made by Watson Wyatt, a Washington, D.C. based employee > benefits consulting firm. Insurance premiums for those surveyed rose by > an average of 10.3 percent and pharmaceutical costs by an average of 14.6 > percent last year. Many employers are content to buy health insurance "in > as-is-condition," says the consulting firm, because they don't think they > can do much better.. Seventy-one percent of the employers surveyed have > responded to
FW: [baker-data-commentary] JOBS BYTE, 3/9/01
> Jobs Byte, 3/9/01 > By Dean Baker > > Jobs Byte is published each month upon release of the Bureau > of Labor Statistics' employment report. For more information > or to subscribe by fax or email contact the Center for Economic > and Policy research at 202 293-5380 ext. 206, or send a "subscribe > bytes" email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > ** > > > Manufacturing Weakens Further, as Unemployment > Rate Remains Steady > > The February employment report provided > more evidence that the rapid decline in > manufacturing sector is continuing, with the > sector losing 94,000 jobs in the month. The job > loss reported for January was revised upward by > 31,000, to make the combined loss for the two > months 190,000. This is the largest two month > decline in manufacturing employment since the > period from December of 1990 to February of 1991, > when the sector lost 281,000 jobs. However, in > spite of the downturn in manufacturing, the > economy continued to create jobs, with a net gain > of 135,000 jobs reported for the month. This was > enough to keep the unemployment rate stable at > 4.2 percent. > > The rapid job loss in manufacturing may > actually understate the problems hitting this > sector. While employment has fallen by 1.4 > percent since October, the length of the average > workweek has fallen even faster, pushing the > index of hours worked down by 3.7 percent over > this period. Average overtime hours were 3.8, the > lowest since November of 1992. The 3-month > employment diffusion index for manufacturing, > which shows the percentage of industries that > intend to add workers over this period, fell to > 24.1 percent in February, its lowest reading > since February of 1991. It is worth noting that > the layoffs in manufacturing have been heavily > considered among production workers. Only one > sixth of the job loss has occurred among non- > production workers, even though they account for > nearly one-third of the work force in > manufacturing. > > Outside of manufacturing the economy seemed > to be holding up reasonably well, although there > are some anomalies. There were 98,000 new private > sector jobs reported for February, making the > rate of job growth for the last quarter 87,000 > per month. While this is a respectable rate of > job growth, given the large losses in > manufacturing, it is considerably less than the > number of new jobs that BLS imputes into these > figures for new firms that are not included in > the survey (165,000 for December and 126,000 for > January and February). > > Construction showed surprising strength, > adding 6,000 jobs in February following a jump of > 58,000 in January. While recent construction data > has remained healthy, it would not seem to > support this pace of job growth. It is worth > noting that the rise in construction jobs has > been accompanied by a decline in the average > workweek, so that hours worked in the sector are > reported as having fallen by 1.7 percent since > October. > > Temporary help employment also suggests > weakness in the economy. While this rose by 3,000 > in February, employment in the sector is down by > 178,000, or 5.1 percent since September. Since > many of the imputed jobs appear in this sector, > the actual decline in employment is likely to be > even larger. > > The larger personal and business services > sector showed a respectable job gain of 95,000 > for the month, while retail trade added 37,000 > jobs after showing very little growth the prior > two months. A bad omen for the future is the 50.0 > percent measure in the overall 3-month employment > diffusion index. This is the lowest reading since > February of 1992, when the measure stood at 49.4 > percent. > > The data in household survey remained > mostly positive, but there were some clear signs > of a weakening labor market. Most notably, it > appears that the most disadvantaged segments of > the population are seeing some deterioration in > their job prospects. The unemployment rate for > black teens was 28.8 percent in February. While > this is not statistically different from the > January rate, it is a significant increase from > the levels close to 22 percent reported last > summer. > > The unemployment rate for workers without > high school degrees, and with only a high school > education both appear to be creeping up as well. > The unemployment rate for the former group was > reported at 7.7 percent in February compared to a > low of 6.1 percent reached last year. The > unemployment rate for high school graduates was > reported at 3.8 percent, compared to 3.4 percent > in December. By comparison, the unemployment rate > for college graduates remained steady at 1.6 > percent for the last five months. > > Wage growth has remained fairly steady over > recent months, with the 4.07 percen
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, MARCH 9, 2001: > > RELEASED TODAY: "The Employment Situation: February 2001" indicates that > the unemployment rate held at 4.2 percent in February, and total nonfarm > employment rose by 135,000. Large job losses continued in manufacturing, > where employment declined by 94,000. Employment gains in several other > industries, including services, accounted for the net increase in payroll > employment. Average hourly earnings rose by 7 cents over the month. > > New claims filed with state agencies for unemployment insurance benefits > fell by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted total of 370,000 for the week ended > March 3, the Labor Department's Employment and Training Administration > reports. This week's report shows that the level of claims was well above > its average from about a year ago, when weekly figures hovered around > 280,000, indicating to analysts that labor conditions remain relatively > weak (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). > > The drop in new unemployment insurance claims was much smaller than Wall > Street's expectation of a 12,000 decline. Still, the numbers are likely > to be substantially revised Five states, including California, were > unable to provide their own reports for the number of new jobless claims > last week, so the Labor Department said it supplied the estimates. A > Labor Department spokeswoman said rolling blackouts may have prevented > California officials from filing a report (The Wall Street Journal, page > A2). > > Employers' plans to hire new workers have remained static in recent > quarters, and that trend will extend into the spring, according to > projections from 179 respondents to the Bureau of National Affairs' latest > quarterly employment survey. Despite the stagnation in job opportunities, > however, the employment outlook remains healthier than during most of the > 1990s, and few organizations reported workers on layoff. However, the > survey suggests that some employees' job security may wane in the second > quarter (Daily Labor Report, page D-3). > > The outlook for a strong spring has grown dimmer for the nation's big > retailers, as they reported generally disappointing results for February. > While many value-oriented retailers and some clothing stores, such as > Talbots, did well, other merchants -- most notably department stores and > apparel retailers, including Gap -- languished amid slowing consumer > spending (The Washington Post, page E3). > > Sales at American retailers edged up in February, led by Wal-Mart Stores, > Inc., the KMart Corporation, and the Costco Wholesale Corporation, as a > slowing economy prompted consumers to buy low-priced household goods and > clothing. Sales at stores open at least a year, a crucial industry > measurement, rose 1.6 percent, according to the Goldman, Sachs retail > composite index. That was less than January's 3.4 percent gain and well > below the 5.1 percent rise in February 2000 (Bloomberg News in The New > York Times, page C4). > > Shoppers turned into bargain hunters in February as economic jitters and > cold weather cast a gloom over retail sales. Gap, Inc., which continues > to struggle with its fashion, was among the nation's hardest hit > retailers. Although discounters generally fared better than full-priced > stores, there were not many standouts in the month often viewed as a > portent of spring spending. "There were few if any indications that > consumer spending is getting better, said an analyst at Credit Suisse > First Boston (The Wall Street Journal, page B4). > application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, MARCH 12, 2001: > > The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent in February, but the > manufacturing sector continued to illustrate the real weakness of the > economy, losing another 94,000 jobs and reducing the number of hours > worked by 0.7 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Since June > 2000, 371,000 manufacturing jobs have been eliminated and the average > factory workweek has declined by a full hour, BLS Commissioner Abraham > says. The average length of a factory workweek stood at a seasonally > adjusted level of 40.6 hours during February, its lowest level since the > 1990-91 recession. Despite the sharp decline in manufacturing employment, > total nonfarm employment still rose by a larger-than-expected 135,000 > (Daily Labor Report, page D-1. Text of Commissioner Abraham's statement > on the February employment report on page E-8. > > The nation's unemployment rate remained at 4.2 percent last month as job > gains in construction, several service industries and government more than > offset the loss of 94,000 manufacturing jobs, the Labor Department > reported yesterday. Analysts said details of the report indicated that > many employers, other than factories, are reluctant to lay off workers, > probably because they expect the current period of very slow economic > growth to be short. "To be sure, manufacturing is in recession, but the > rest of the economy is alive and kicking," said an economist at the Wells > Fargo Bank. "Even in autos, where two-thirds of the layoffs in > manufacturing have occurred, 13,000 more jobs were created (last month). > Adjusted for the volatility in weather, construction is in the process of > stabilizing and gaining momentum," he said. "Services, which account for > about 80 percent of jobs, are healthy. Health care, mortgage banking, > retail, computer services and call centers have added jobs" (John M. Berry > in The Washington Post, March 10, page E1). > > "Has the economy hit bottom?" asks Greg Ip in The Wall Street Journal > (page A2). Stronger-than-expected job growth in February and a steady > unemployment rate are the latest signs that the economy, though not out of > the woods, may have stabilized well short of recession. Combined with > other encouraging news -- including a drop in wholesalers' inventories in > January, better-than-expected auto sales and an uptick in consumer > confidence in the last weeks of February -- the report reinforced some > economists' belief that the economy has stopped sliding without falling > into recession. The article is illustrated with a graph of the > three-month moving average of monthly nonfarm payroll growth, 1995 to the > present, whose source is the Labor Department; Economy.com/FreeLunch. > > The Wall Street Journal feature "Tracking the Economy" (page A6) points > out that the February import prices figure, due out Thursday, will be 0.0 > percent, according to Thomson Global Forecast. Last month it went down > 0.4 percent. The Journal predicts that the February Producer Price Index, > to be released Friday, will increase 0.1 percent, if it matches the > Thomson Global Forecast prediction. In January the Produce Price Index > moved up 1.1 percent. > > More and more high-tech companies are hoping to stave off layoffs by > asking employees to take a short-term hit on bonuses and perks, says The > Washington Post (March 11, page L1). The trend started before Christmas, > when Palo Alto, Calif.-based Hewlett Packard Co. told employees their > raises would be delayed 3 months. Executives' raises and bonuses are > often tied to corporate performance, but it's less common to delay pay > increases for front-line workers. A spokesman said the company is trying > to avoid more severe payroll cuts after laying off 1,700 employees, or > about 2 percent of the workforce. Maybe it's the awful memory of > desperately searching for employees during the tight labor market last > year. Or an attempt to wait out the downturn while keeping the necessary > number of workers. Either way, deciding how severely to cut back is a > game inspired by Wall Street's harsh take on technology stocks, said John > Challenger, a Chicago outplacement consultant. > application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, MARCH 13, 2001: > > Black female workers saw their unemployment rate fall to 5.8 percent in > February, from January's 7.3 percent. Some economists had been closely > watching that group's typically volatile rate, which tends to rise early > in a recession (The Wall Street Journal's "Work Week" feature, page A1). > > The Wall Street Journal's page A1 graph is of the pool of available > workers, 1999 to the present. The graph reaches a low point in mid- 2000, > then turns up substantially to a brief plateau in early 2001. Source of > the data is given as the Labor Department. > > Sharply rising electricity and natural-gas prices in Washington state > could cut disposable household income by as much as $1.7 billion a year, > cost 43,000 jobs over the next 3 years, and help push Washington's slowing > economy into recession, state officials warn (The Wall Street Journal, > page A2). > > Household net worth -- total assets such as houses and stocks, minus total > liabilities such as mortgages and credit card debts -- declined 2 percent > to $41.4 trillion at the end of 2000 from $42.3 trillion at the end of > 1999, according to the Federal Reserve Board's "flow of funds" report > released Friday. While not big in percentage terms, the decline stands > out as the first since available data began in 1945 and could serve as a > significant drag on consumer spending, especially since stock values have > continued to fall since the end of 2000.(The Wall Street Journal, page > A2). > > DUE OUT TOMORROW: "Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment, January > 2001". > application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
> RELEASED TODAY: In January, 205 metropolitan areas recorded unemployment > rates below the U.S. average (4.7 percent, not seasonally adjusted), while > 117 areas registered higher rates, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported > today. Among the 10 metropolitan areas with jobless rates below 2.0 > percent, 3 were in Virginia, which had one of the lowest state rates in > January. Of the 12 areas with rates greater than 10.0 percent, 8 were in > California. > > Month-over- month retail sales slipped 0.2 percent in February to a > seasonally adjusted $274.5 billion, but a sharp upward revision to the > January sales figures made up for the weakness, the Commerce Department > reported March 13. Retail sales in January spiked 1.3 percent, nearly > twice the 0.7 percent increase that the Commerce Department's Census > Bureau reported last month (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). > > Federal Reserve policy makers appear certain to cut short-term interest > rates when they meet next Tuesday, but that hardly will be soon enough to > satisfy a host of investors and Wall Street traders who want the central > bank to stem the stock market's recent hemorrage. Fed Officials, > including Chairman Alan Greenspan, do not believe the central bank can or > should target changes in stock prices. Only when markets cease to > function normally or affect the economy do the officials generally see a > need to step in(Washington Post, page E1). > > The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its key federal-funds rate by at > least half a percentage point when it meets on Tuesday, a move meant to > fuel an economic rebound in the second half. The Commerce Department > reported yesterday that retail sales fell 0.2% in February, another > indication that the economy is growing sluggishlyEconomic growth has > come to a near halt, but there are few signs yet of a full-fledged > recession. Also hurting the economic outlook is the parade of earnings > warnings from technology companies , which point to a retrenchment in > business investment. Slower investment not only weakens growth, but also > slows the advances in productivity that have led to predictions of > above-average growth for the next decade. As a result, financial markets > appear to be expecting the Fed to cut rates by as much as three-quaters > of a percentage point next week ( The Wall Street Journal, page A2). > > DUE OUT TOMORROW: U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes, February 2001 > application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, MARCH 15, 2001: > > Released Today: The U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.1 percent in > February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The rise > followed a 0.1 percent decrease in January and was led by an increase in > imported petroleum prices. The Export Price Index declined 0.2 percent in > February, after gaining 0.3 percent in January. > > The probability of losing a job in a downturn is close to converging for > men and women, yet women still take longer to find work again, according > to the latest data from the U.S. Labor Department. In the years 1997 > through 1999, 8.9 percent of men reported having lost at least one job > compared to 8.3 percent of women. From 1991 to 1993, more than 3 > percentage points separated the sexes, with 12.5 percent for men and 9.2 > percent for women. Historically, women have been less likely to suffer > layoffs because they worked primarily in sectors such as health care and > services, industries more impervious to business cycle swings than > male-dominated manufacturing and construction. But that's changing as > more women work outside traditionally female jobs. "Women are more > dispersed throughout the economy and are more likely to have moved into > jobs with a cyclical component," Labor Department economist Deborah Klein > said. And that means they are more likely to be threatened by corporate > cost cutting. "They moved out of the pink-collar ghetto into jobs with > higher visibility and higher earnings, but those are the jobs that are > more subject to job loss," said Lori Kletzer, a visiting fellow at the > Institute for International Economics. Some of it has to do with sheer > numbers. Women now account for 46 percent of the American workforce, up > from 38 percent in 1970. The growth has occurred both in private business > and government. Women in 2000 made up 57 percent of public sector > workers, up from 52 percent in 1980; in the private sector, the fraction > was 48 percent last year compared to 42 percent in 1980 "What we don't > know is if women in duel-income families are somehow more constrained in > their job search than if the man had lost the job," says Kletzer (Kristen > Gerencher, CBS MarketWatch.com, in an article datelined San Francisco). > > Stockpiles of unsold goods rose more than expected in January, as sales > stalled, a government report showed today, signaling that manufacturing > may be slow to pick up in coming months. Inventories rose 0.4 percent, > the largest increase since October, after no change a month earlier, > according to the Commerce Department. Sales were unchanged in January, > after rising 0.1 percent the previous month. Stockpiles were sitting at > businesses longer in January after rising 0.1 percent the previous month. > Stockpiles were sitting at businesses longer in January than at any time > since March 1999, suggesting consumer demand is not picking up enough to > encourage companies to increase production and help lift the economy > (Bloomberg News in The New York Times, page C7). > > Inventories at U.S. companies increased in January, as businesses failed > to unload excess stocks. But the figures are unlikely to have much impact > on Wall Street because they were roughly in line with analysts' > expectations. On the sales side, sales were unchanged in January, after > rising 0.1 percent in December (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). > > "Forget computer programming," says USA Today, page 3B). "The jobs and > money are in dispensing drugs." Salaries and perks are driven by one > thing: The demand for pharmacists exceeds the supply. The demand for > pharmacists comes as the number of prescriptions written has soared from > 1.9 billion in 1992 to 3.1 billion last year -- and is expected to reach 4 > billion in 2004. At the same time, the number of graduates from pharmacy > schools has leveled off and applications are up only slightly. A federal > report on the pharmacist shortage says that dealing with insurers takes up > an estimated 10 to 20 percent of a pharmacist's time. Hassles such as this > affect hiring. As a selling point, hospitals try to lure new grads > pointing out that their pharmacists don't have to deal with insurers. > They also have more opportunity to work with patients and doctors. But > hospitals are competing for pharmacists against retail pharmacies and > mail-order houses, both of which generally pay more and offer perks to new > workers. In retail, salaries start at about $75,000 for new graduates. > Cars, signing bonuses, and tuition reimbursements are also offered, says a > recruitment firm that helped place 252 pharmacists last year. Starting > salaries at hospitals generally range from $67,000 to $72,000. > Pharmacists spend 4 years earning their degree, plus 2 or more years in > college-level studies before pharmacy school. There are 82 colleges of > pharmacy in the USA, which last year enrolled
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, MARCH 16, 2001: > > RELEASED TODAY: "Producer Price Indexes -- February 2001" indicates that > the Producer Price Index for Finished goods edged up 0.1 percent in > February, seasonally adjusted. This rise followed a 1.1 percent increase > in January and a 0.2 percent gain in December. At the earlier stages of > processing, prices received by producers of intermediate goods edged down > 0.1 percent, following a 0.7 percent rise in the prior month, while the > crude goods index decreased 14.2 percent, after jumping 13.9 percent a > month ago. > > Declining or flat prices in a wide array of imported products held total > import prices to an increase of just 0.1 percent in February, according to > figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Petroleum import prices rose > 1.7 percent in February, a turn-around after two straight months of > decline. BLS said that prices of nonpetroleum imports edged down 0.1 > percent between January and February as food and related products posted a > 1.7 percent drop and imported capital goods prices were down 0.1 percent > (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). > > Initial claims filed with state agencies for unemployment insurance > benefits held at a seasonally adjusted 375,000 in the week ended March 10, > the Labor Department's Employment and Training Administration announced > March 15. New claims filings have remained relatively static over the > past 2 weeks, with revised data indicating that the initial claims level > stood at 374,000 in the week ended February 24. However, the new claims > volume remains well above levels from one year ago, when the figures were > as low as 264,000 (Daily Labor Report, page D-3). > > The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits > was unchanged last week, although the unemployment rate for insured > workers climbed to a 2 and a half year high (The Wall Street Journal, page > A2). > > The employment rate for individuals with disabilities fell between 1995 > and 1997, even though the overall employment rate for the United States > rose during the same period, the Census Bureau said in its report > "Americans With Disabilities, 1997". The Census Bureau estimates that > 27.8 million people -- roughly 18 percent of the population -- between the > ages of 21 and 64 had a disability that caused them difficulty in > performing daily living activities during 1997, the most recent year for > which data are available (Daily Labor Report, page A-9). > > OPEC is convening today in Vienna and is expected to announce a reduction > of daily output of 3 percent to 4 percent in an effort to shore up falling > oil prices. The move could backfire, analysts warned, if a sharp increase > in oil prices sinks the shaky world economy. (New York Times, page C1). > application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, MARCH 19, 2001: > > Producer prices for finished goods rose only 0.1 percent in February as > heavy discounting of automobiles and light trucks offset price hikes for > energy and food products, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor > Statistics reports. The core PPI, which excludes changes in the volatile > food and energy segments, fell 0.3 percent after rising 0.7 percent in the > prior month. Most of the decline in the core PPI was attributable to the > decline in auto prices, BLS says. Passenger car prices fell 1.5 percent > in February, the largest decline for cars since a 1.6 percent decrease in > July 1997. Prices for light trucks fell 3.6 percent in February, the > largest decline since 1982. Generally, the PPI data showed that there is > little upward price pressure for the Federal Reserve's Open Market > Committee to be concerned with, says the president of Inflation Analytics, > Inc., in Arlington, Va. (Daily Labor Report, page D-5). > > A series of government and private reports yesterday painted a picture of > a U.S. economy that apparently is still growing slowly -- except for > manufacturing -- against a background of continued low producer price > inflation. The most surprising numbers came from the University of > Michigan's survey of consumer attitudes, which found a modest improvement > early this month following three consecutive significant monthly declines. > Analysts had been virtually unanimous in predicting another drop; some > cautioned that most of the interviews on which the index is based occurred > before this week's large stock market losses (John M. Berry in The > Washington Post, March 17, page E1). > > Prices paid to manufacturers, farmers and other producers rose a modest > 0.1 percent in February, while industrial production slumped in the month, > new reports showed today, suggesting that the Federal Reserve has leeway > to cut interest rates deeper and quicker. But a survey on consumer > sentiments showed an unexpected swing in optimism, confounding some > investors (Bloomberg News in The New York Times, March 17, page B2). > > If the flagging economy is to regain its footing, consumers' outlook will > have to improve. And one indication that might be happening came Friday > with the unexpected rise in a widely followed consumer-confidence index. > Meanwhile, the government's report that wholesale prices barely budged > last month helps smooth the way for the most direct policy response to the > slowdown: aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Also > industrial production is sinking twice as fast as analysts had predicted > (The Wall Street Journal, page A6). > > The nation's industrial sector registered a 0.6 percent drop in total > production during February, reflecting a sharp decline in utilities and > continued weakness in manufacturing, according to the Federal Reserve. > While factory output fell again last month, analysts said the latest Fed > figures add another bit of evidence suggesting that the worst might be > over in that key sector. Industry schedules show that automakers are > preparing to boost assembly lines, an analyst said. Manufacturing output > fell 0.4 percent last month, a smaller decline than in the prior three > months (Daly Labor Report, page D-14). > > Despite defeat of Federal rules that, hopefully, would help prevent > repetitive motion workplace injuries, many companies are making ergonomics > a workplace priority (The Washington Post, March 18, page H1). > > The Wall Street Journal's feature "Tracking the Economy" (page A6) > indicates that the Consumer Price Index for February, to be released by > BLS Wednesday, is likely to go up 0.2 percent, according to the Thomson > Global Forecast. Last month it went up 0.6 percent. The Leading > Indictors figures for February, to be released by the Conference Board > Thursday, are expected to go down 0.2 percent in contrast to the rise of > 0.8 percent last month. > > When it comes to layoffs, employers have long followed the axiom of last > hired, first fired. But in today's wage of layoffs, a new approach is > taking hold -- and it has many employees thinking the unthinkable. "I > might soon be out of a job." Companies are trying to emerge from a > downsizing leaner and more competitive. So they're axing workers > perceived to be the weakest members of the team. Now, employees with poor > performance or fewer skills, or those who get paid more than their > colleagues are more vulnerable in a downsizing than before. After decades > of preserving workers with tenure, the new approach is a seismic shift > that's becoming increasingly apparent as companies lay off workers at an > accelerating pace. There were about 29,000 layoffs in the week ending > March 12, according to International Strategy & Investment, an economic > research organization in New York. There have been about 476,000 layoffs > since January 1. Companies
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, MARCH 20, 2001: > > Negotiated wage increases continue climbing in 2001, says a survey by an > employment reporting service, the Bureau of National Affairs. Factoring > in lump sum payments, the average pay increase in labor contracts signed > this year was 4.7 percent, compared with 3.7 percent for the same period > in 2000 (The Wall Street Journal "Work Week" feature, page A1). > > The Society of Human Resource Management, in its annual corporate-benefits > survey, finds that fewer companies are offering worker sabbaticals. The > Alexandria, Va. professional group says last year 17 percent of > respondents offered extended unpaid time off for research, vacation or > travel, and 4 percent offered paid leaves. In 1996, 27 percent of > companies polled offered unpaid sabbaticals and 6 percent paid ones. > Tight job markets are seen behind the decline. The sort of worker > generally eligible for a sabbatical -- long tenured and experienced -- is > the sort now hard to replace. But cutting back can be shortsighted, some > companies believe (The Wall Street Journal, "Work Week" feature, page A1). > > The average starting salaries for the undergraduate class of 2001, by > major, are computers/information sciences, $48,269; engineering, $46,628; > business/management, $38,631; accounting/finance, $37,786; education, > $36,707; sales/marketing advertising, $35,581; nonprofit, $31,363: > communications/media, $30,148; clerical/secretarial, $30,064; and other, > $34,921. Source of the data is Jobtrak,com,Los Angeles (The Wall Street > Journal, page B12). > > The number of undocumented immigrants in the United States appears to be > far higher than the 6 million the government has estimated, according to a > growing number of federal officials and other experts. The discrepancy has > surfaced in recent weeks as the results of the 2000 Census have been > releasedExperts say 6 million may instead be 9 million. The presence > of millions of people in this country previously unknown to the government > has important policy implications...and could also explain why > unemployment rates and wage trends have seemed out of step with the tight > labor market of recent years. Lee Price, acting deputy undersecretary for > economic affairs at the Commerce Department, said that, if the number of > illegal immigrants is higher than previously thought, it could explain why > unemployment fell more slowly in the 1990s than the growing number of jobs > would indicate it should. It could also answer another question: Why > didn't wages rise faster as unemployment fell?...Price and other > economists started with a puzzle: The number of jobs people reported in a > census survey (CPS) has long been lower than the number of jobs reported > by employers to another government agency for tax purposes. In the 1990s > the gap was 4 million. The economists tend to believe the employers, who > must pay tax on the jobs they report. So they believe much of the > difference between the two job totals could be explained by undocumented > immigrants, whose numbers would throw off the census survey (D'Vera > Cohn in Washington Post, March 18, page A1). > > DUE OUT TOMORROW: Consumer Price Index, February 2001 and Real Earnings, > February 2001 > application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
> RELEASED TODAY: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) > increased 0.4 percent in February, before seasonal adjustment, to a level > of 175.8 (1982-84=100), BLS reported. For the 12-month period ended in > February, the CPI-U increased 3.5 percent. On a seasonally adjusted basis, > the CPI-U increased 0.3 percent in February, following a 0.6 percent rise > in January. The CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clericals (CPI-W) also rose > 0.4 percent in February, prior to seasonal adjustment. The February level > of 172.4 was 3.5 percent higher than the index in February 2000. > > RELEASED TODAY: Real average weekly earnings declined by 0.1 percent from > January to February after seasonal adjustment, according to preliminary > data released today by BLS. A 0.5 percent increase in average hourly > earnings was offset by a 0.3 percent decrease in average weekly hours and > a 0.3 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners > and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). > Increases in clothing and food costs helped push U.S. consumer prices higher in February, the government said Wednesday, but declines in gas and energy prices kept the rise just above forecasts. The Consumer Price Index, the government's main inflation gauge, rose 0.3 percent last month, the Labor Department reported. Wall Street was looking for a 0.2 percent rise, according to economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Excluding food and energy prices, which can fluctuate widely, the core CPI also rose 0.3 percent, matching economists' estimates and the previous month's gain. (CNN Financial News, online http://cnnfn.cnn.com/2001/03/21/economy/cpi) > The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened slightly in January, > growing less than 1 percent to $33.3 billion, as the value of both imports > and exports rose, the Commerce Department reported March 20. The value of > goods and services exported from the United States rose $449 million to > $89.7 billion in January, Commerce said. The value of goods and services > imported to the United States grew $512 million over the month to $122.9 > billion (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). > > The trade gap widened slightly in January to $33.26 billion, the > second-biggest deficit since the U.S. began compiling the monthly figures > in 1992 (Wall Street Journal, page A1). > > In the debate over whether the economic slump is shaping up to look like a > "V" or a "U", the U's are gaining an edge. And that isn't good news. A few > months ago, some economists contended that the economic slowdown reflected > nothing more than an inventory correction confined to manufacturing, where > supply has been abruptly cut back to meet lower demand. But now, more > economists are thinking the weakness in manufacturing soon could spread to > other industries. As a result, what was forecast to chart as a V-shaped > recovery for the economy--a sharp downturn followed by an equally sharp > upturn--now is looking to economists more U-like, marked by a period of > flat or negative growth and a more gradual recoveryAllan Sinai, chief > economist at Primark Decision Economics in New York who until recently was > bullish about the economy, says he turned bearish in part due to the > persistent weakness in stock prices, which he believes will cast a pall > over consumer sentiment and result in sharply reduced consumer spending > and borrowing. Personal incomes, which grew 2.84% monthly on average last > year compared with the prior year, rose just 1.89% in January, the latest > month for which figures are available. Employment and payroll growth also > have slowed, and jobless claims are rising, averaging about 375,000 weekly > (Wall Street Journal, page A2). > application/ms-tnef
FW: [baker-data-commentary] PRICES BYTE, 3/21/01
> -- > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED][SMTP:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] > Sent: Wednesday, March 21, 2001 10:26 AM > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subject: [baker-data-commentary] PRICES BYTE, 3/21/01 > > > Prices Byte > By Dean Baker > > Prices Byte is published each month upon release of > the Bureau of Labor Statistics' reports on the consumer price > and producer price indexes. For more information or to subscribe by > fax or email contact CEPR at 202 293-5380 ext. 206 or [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > Inflation Continues Upward Creep > > The overall CPI rose by 0.3 percent in > February, making the annual inflation rate over > the last quarter 4.4 percent. Over the last year > it has risen by 3.5 percent. The core CPI > (excluding food and energy) also rose by 0.3 > percent in February, bringing its annual rate > over the last three months to 3.1 percent. The > core CPI has risen by 2.7 percent over the last > year. Both indexes are increasing at a > considerably faster pace than they have in the > recent past. The overall CPI rose by just 2.7 > percent in 1999 and just 1.6 percent in 1998. The > core index rose by 1.9 and 2.4 percent in 1999 > and 1998, respectively. > > The main factor propelling the acceleration > in the overall index is the large jump in energy > prices. The energy index has risen at a 16.8 > percent annual rate over the quarter and by 13.1 > percent over the year. Higher food prices have > also been a factor in the last quarter, with the > food index rising at a 5.1 percent annual rate, > although it stands only 3.0 percent above its > year ago levels. > > The acceleration of inflation in the core > index is attributable largely to more rapid > growth in housing costs. The shelter component, > which accounts for 38.4 percent of the core > index, rose at a 4.4 percent annual rate over the > last quarter and a 3.4 percent rate over the last > year. By comparison, in the year leading up to > February of 2000 it had risen by just 2.8 > percent. > > It is important to recognize that wage > growth has not been a factor in the recent > acceleration of inflation. The rate of hourly > wage growth has remained virtually constant at > 4.0 percent over the last four years. This is > striking, since it means that even with > historically low levels of unemployment, and > rapid increases in productivity, workers have not > been able to maintain a significant pace of real > wage growth. Over the last year, the real hourly > wage has risen by just over 0.5 percent, and has > actually fallen slightly in the last quarter. > Clearly low unemployment has not been driving > this uptick of inflation. > > There were few notable anomalies in the > February data. Apparel prices rose by 0.8 > percent, but after falling sharply in the final > three months of 2000, this should have been > expected. This increase was partly offset by a > 0.3 percent fall in new vehicle prices. > > Medical care prices rose by 0.5 percent > after rising 0.6 percent in January. This > indicates that a relatively modest 0.3 percent > increase in December was an anomaly. The annual > rate of inflation in medical care prices for the > quarter was 5.9 percent, an indication of serious > cost problems in this sector. > > On the positive side, tuition rose by just > 0.3 percent in February, bringing its rate of > inflation for the quarter to 4.1 percent. This is > down considerably from a pace of more than 5.0 > percent in 2000. > > Inflation at the wholesale level is also > showing a modest acceleration. The overall > finished goods index rose by 0.1 percent in > February, while the core index fell by 0.3 > percent. The decline in the core index partially > offset a 0.7 percent increase reported for > January. The January jump was clearly an anomaly, > driven by extraordinary rises in car and tobacco > prices. > > Nonetheless, producer prices clearly are > rising at a more rapid pace than in 1998 and > 1999. The core finished goods index has risen at > a 1.9 percent annual rate over the last quarter, > while the core index for consumer goods has risen > at a 2.6 percent rate. By comparison, the core > finished goods index rose by just 0.9 percent in > 1999, while the core consumer goods index rose > by 1.2 percent. > > A large part of this story can be > attributed to the reversal in non-oil import > prices. These had been falling at the rate of > close to 2 percent annually in 1998 and 1999, in > the wake of the East Asian financial crisis. The > price of non-oil imports is now rising at a rate > of more than 1.0 percent annually. The Federal > Reserve Board can do little to contain this > source of price pressure. > > > application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
> BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, THURSDAY, MARCH 22, 2001: > > Consumer prices rose more than expected in Feburary, led by higher costs > for food, clothing and medical care, government figures showed today. The > Consumer Price Index rose 0.3 percent last month after a 0.6 percent gain > in January, the Labor Department said. The core index, which excludes > energy and food, also increased 0.3 percent, matching January's rise. > While the index rose more than the 0.2 percent expected by analysts, > sluggish economic growth is prompting companies to cut prices and offer > discounts to attract customers. Consumer prices "should decline in coming > months as slower demand restrains inflation for the rest of 2001," says > the president of the National Association of Manufacturers. Industrial > production has fallen for 5 consecutive months, and the price report > "gives the Federal Reserve wider latitude to reduce interest rates again" > to increase growth, he said (The New York Times, page C14). > > Consumer prices rose more than expected for the second straight month, a > potentially toublesome development as the Federal Reserve tries to focus > on reviving the economy. The consumer-price index rose 0.3 percent in > February, adjusted for seasonal variation, the Labor Department said, > bringing its increase from a year earlier to 3.5 percent. Excluding the > more volatile food and energy components, "core" prices also rose 0.3 > percent, and are up 2.7 percent from a year earlier. Economists had > expected both core and overall prices to rise just 0.2 percent. January > consumer prices rose 0.6 percent, double the expectations at the time (The > Wall Street Journal, page A2). > > "Each layoff in today's headlines represents an earthquake in the lives of > those Americans who have just lost their jobs. Who else is apt to suffer > in the 2001 downturn? The worst news on layoffs lies ahead," contends > Lester C Thurow, a professor of economics and former dean of the > Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Sloan School of Management (USA > Today, page 15A). In more impersonal terms, unemployment is what > economists call a lagging indicator. If the gross domestic product goes > down, unemployment will rise, but it takes a few months. Officially, > unemployment numbers are up only slightly; in fact, the latest numbers > show that the U.S. unemployment rate held steady at 4.2 percent during > February. The big increases lie ahead of us. There is a lag time because > firms delay layoffs to see whether the downturn is real and long > lasting Anyone involuntarily laid off over the age of 55 is going to > find it difficult to find re-employment. Firms don't want to incur the > higher pension and health-care costs that go with older workers, and they > would prefer to train people that potentially could be with them for > longer periods of time. Very few older workers are going to find new jobs > as good as those they lost. For most, their careers have come to an end. > They will finish out their working lifetime in a series of dead-end jobs. > Those under 55 will find it easier to find re-employment, but they are > also likely to be re-employed at lower wage rates. Unless one is a > professional worker, getting a job with a new employer means going to the > bottom of the seniority list. For those laid-off in manufacturing, > re-employment is apt to occur in the service sector, and on average, > service jobs pay one-third less than manufacturing jobs. All of these > factors lead to lower wages. Young, professional workers have the best > chance of being re-employed at equal or higher wages, but even they face a > big problem. Potential employers may know that they have been laid off > because of a general market turndown, but there is always the suspicion > that they were among the firm's worst employees at their skill level. > Behind each percentage point rise in unemployment there are 1.4 million > people who can tell stories about how the 2001 slowdown hurt them. Charts > show an estimated 728,082 Americans lost jobs in "mass layoffs" affecting > 50 workers or more during the three months ending January 31 (shown by > industry). The number of "permanent job losers" is well below previous > levels according to a chart showing the number of Americans who were laid > off and looking for work in February of each year from 1994 to 2001. > Source of the data for these two charts is given as the Bureau of Labor > Statistics. > > Initial unemployment-insurance claimants after mass layoffs through the > year 2000 and the first month of 2001, by month, are charted in a Time > Magazine article (March 26) on the economic downturn in the United States. > Source of the chart data is given as the Bureau of Labor Statistics. > http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/O,9171,102970,00.html) > application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, MARCH 23, 2001: > > Rising unemployment and continued weakening of consumer confidence > pressured the index of leading economic indicators down 0.2 percent in > February to 108.8, the Conference Board reports. February's decline was > the fourth in the last 5 months. However, the Conference Board economist > says it still has not fallen enough to signal a recession. He says the > index of leading indicators must fall for 3 consecutive months and > experience a cumulative annualized decline of more than 3.5 percent over a > 6 month period to be considered a recessionary signal. According to the > Conference Board data, the annualized percent change in leading indicators > over the last 6 months has fallen over 1.6 percent (Daily Labor Report, > page D-1). > "The economy may been slowing, but at least employment is still rising, right? That's what the latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics tell us. But the bureau is in the process of changing the way it estimates its monthly numbers -- jobs have fallen since November in the sector where the new method is now being used." says Business Week, March 26, page 34. In June, 2000, the bureau applied its new technique for estimating jobs to the wholesale trade sector, comprising companies that supply such enterprises as retailers, construction contractors, hospitals, and farms. That technique, called probability sampling, provides better estimates, because the employer sample is chosen at random, which helps ensure a true representation of existing companies. The old method, called quota sampling, doesn't choose the companies at random but simply cuts off the sample when responses meet the quota. > A key forecasting gauge for the economy fell in February after a > significant gain in January, but it indicated that growth should pick up > in the next few months, a private research group said today. The group, > the Conference Board, reported that the index of leading economic > indicators dropped 0.2 percent in February after a revised 0.5 percent > gain in January. The drop matched Wall Street expectations. The board > corrected the leading index from a 0.3 percent decline reported earlier in > the day and attributed the revision to an error in compiling consumer > expectations data. The mistake occurred because the board used midmonth > consumer sentiment figures instead of the usual end-of-month numbers, > which were higher. Overall consumer expectations were therefore corrected > to a 0.12 percent decline from a previously reported 0.19 percent fall > (Reuters in The New York Times, page C4). > > The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators fell for the > fourth time in 5 months in February, but the index still doesn't point to > recession (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). > > New claims filed with state agencies for unemployment insurance benefits > dipped by 1,000 to 379,000 during the week ended March 17, the Employment > and Training Administration says. The 4-week moving average of new UI > claims was 377,000, an increase of 11,500 from the prior period. The chief > U.S. economist at UBS Warburg in New York said that the most recent UI > claims levels suggest the March employment report, scheduled for release > April 4, will show virtually no growth in nonfarm payrolls. Such a weak > performance is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest > rates again, he contends (Daily Report, page D-2). > application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, MARCH 26, 2001:
>
> The Wall Street Journal's "Tracking the Economy" feature (page A10)
> indicates that the Consumer Confidence index for March, to be released by
> the Conference Board tomorrow, is likely to be 104.9 according to the
> Thomson Global Forecast, in comparison to 106.8 the previous month.
> However, initial jobless claims for the week to March 24, to be released
> Thursday, are predicted to be 375,000, compared to 379, 000 the previous
> week.
>
> Women are expected to be the majority of students entering last school
> this fall, a development that is already leading to changes in the way the
> law is practiced. And the movement is ultimately expected to help propel
> more women into leadership positions in politics and business. Women, who
> made up about 10 percent of first-year law students in 1970, accounted for
> 49.4 percent of the 43,518 students who began law school last fall,
> according to data to be released soon by the American Bar Association, and
> that rate of growth is expected to continue. As of March 9, more women
> than men had applied for admission to law school this fall (The New York
> Times, page A1).
>
> In reporting a price war on the part of the personal computer industry,
> The Wall Street Journal (page B1) publishes a graph showing the drop in
> average retail PC prices, 1996 to the present. The price appears to have
> fallen nearly half in that period.. In the past, computer prices have
> fallen steadily as they became cheaper to make, yet that simply fueled
> higher demand. But recent price cuts have been much steeper than anything
> seen before, and combined with a slowdown in demand, could result in a
> first ever decline in PC revenue in the U.S. Consumers and some companies
> are holding onto their computers longer, in part because the powerful
> machines already provide more than enough heft for most computer tasks
> thrown at them. Combine this with an increasingly saturated U.S. market,
> where 53 percent of all homes already have a PC and most businesses are
> computerized, and that means fewer buyers.
>
> Over the past 3 months U.S. companies announced plans to eliminate 378,000
> jobs, nearly 3 times as many as in the same period a year earlier. During
> January alone, plans were announced to hand out a record 142,000 pink
> slips, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a firm that tracks
> employment trends. The manufacturing strongholds of the Midwest have been
> hit especially hard -- even harder than Silicon Valley with its dwindling
> army of dot-commers. But with the U.S. unemployment rate near a 30-year
> low at 4.2 percent, the current downturn is still relatively mild. Since
> the end of World War II, the U.S. economy has gone through nine
> recessions, averaging about 11 months each. The first started in
> November 1948 and lasted through October 1949. The most recent was July
> 1990 to March 1991. A table shows the dates of the recessions, their
> duration, and the peak jobless rate during the recessions. Source of the
> data is given as the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Bureau
> of Labor Statistics.("America in a Slowdown",
> http://www.msnbc.com/news/540015.asp).
>
> DUE OUT TOMORROW: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment, February
> 2001
>
application/ms-tnef
BLS Daily Report
> BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, MARCH 27, 2001: > > RELEASED TODAY: "Regional and State Employment and Unemployment: February > 2001" indicates that regional and state unemployment rates were very > stable in February. All four regions reported the same rates that they > had in January, and 44 states recorded changes of 0.3 percentage point or > less. The national jobless rate, 4.2 percent, was unchanged from January. > Nonfarm employment increased in 38 states in February. > > Temporary workers get the ax, but don't always get the attention, says The > Wall Street Journal in its "Work Week" feature (page A1). As an example, > it cited Compaq Computer Corp. as saying recently that it will cut 5,000 > jobs in a restructuring. Later, after reporters asked, the computer maker > said 10 to 15 percent of its 24,500 contract workers will be cut as well. > "Contingency work forces are just that. Business fluctuates," a spokesman > says. Meanwhile, among the big employers tracked by the Bureau of Labor > Statistics, 53,200 temp workers filed unemployment claims in November > through January, up 29 percent from the year-earlier period. But > sometimes they are hard to identify. Intel Corp. announced this month > that it would cut jobs through attrition, but a spokeswoman says some of > its roughly 750 temps could be cut during budget reductions. And in > today's environment, temps could have a harder time finding new > assignments, says the general council of the American Staffing > Association, Alexandria, Va. > > Excessive consumer and business debt, coupled with the fallout from the > recent downturn in the stock market, are the primary threats to U.S. > economic growth, according to a survey by the National Association for > Business Economics. The survey, a semiannual snapshot of 267 NABE members' > views on problems facing U.S. economic policy, was compiled during the > first week of March. One significant shift in the NABE survey is that > economists no longer are voicing concerns that labor market conditions > might inhibit economic growth. According to the survey, only 5 percent of > respondents viewed shortages of skilled labor or poorly prepared labor as > a major economic problem, down from 27 percent in August 2000. The shift > in attitudes has come amid the rapid slowdown in the economy and the > resulting increase in unemployment. Two areas that still could threaten > continued economic growth, however, are excessive growth in government > spending and/or taxation and high energy prices (Daily Labor Report, page > A-9). > > Sales of new and previously owned homes fell in February, but the housing > market remained one of the strongest areas in the nation's shaky economy, > according to reports released today. Sales of previously owned homes fell > 0.4 percent, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.18 million last > month, the National Association of Realtors said. That was down from 5.20 > million in January, a figure that was revised higher. In another report, > the government said sales of new homes fell for the second consecutive > month in February, decreasing 2.4 percent, to an annual rate of 911,000 > from 933,000 in the previous month. Despite the monthly declines, > analysts noted that the housing market was coming off record high levels > and remained one of the bright lights in a gloomy economic picture. Low > mortgage rates have supported home sales and construction (Reuters in The > New York Times, page C6). > > Home sales declined moderately last month, but remain strong by historical > standards and suggest that low mortgage rates are helping to buoy the > market (The Wall Street Journal, page A2). > > Gone with the soaring economy are the days of blithely moving from job to > job in search of better opportunities and higher pay, says Kathy Chen in > The Wall Street Journal feature "Your Career Matters" (page B1). Now, > worried workers are trying to protect what they have, working longer hours > and even considering cuts in pay. Some newcomers to the labor market are > eschewing more lucrative, but risky, New Economy jobs in the high-tech > sector for safer bets in traditional trades, like banking and consulting. > The uncertain economic outlook is also delaying retirement dates for some > older workers. That, in turn, is tripping up plans by some companies to > trim their work forces through voluntary early retirement-programs instead > of involuntary layoffs. During the boom, many people in their early or > mid-50s snapped up generous early-retirement packages and then often moved > on to start their own business, take another job or go back to school. > Now "people are being more cautious," says the work issues program > coordinator for AARP, a lobbying group for older Americans based in > Washington, D.C. "Early retirement is not as attractive because of the > risk of not being able to find a job as easily" (The Wall Street Journal, > page B1). > >
