Re: Earthquake and Tornado Forecasting Programs June 13, 2006
Oh for a newsreader that can eliminate all such ugly excessively cross-posted articles lacking follow-ups. PLONK thread is the only remaining answer. Posted by E.D.G. June 14, 2006 In my opinion, even moderated Internet Newsgroups cannot provide the necessary control for adequately protected scientific communications. I have in mind the development of a sophisticated Web site based Internet Bulletin Board which past experiences indicate to me should work. The Web site running that bulletin board should be of interest to computer programmers around the globe regardless of what programming language they are using. -- http://mail.python.org/mailman/listinfo/python-list
Earthquake and Tornado Forecasting Programs June 13, 2006
edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT Posted July 11, 2005 My main earthquake forecasting Web page is: http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html EARTHQUAKE AND TORNADO FORECASTING PROGRAMS Posted by E.D.G. June 13, 2006 http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html The information in this report represents expressions of personal opinion. On July 11, 2005 I posted a report to a number of Internet Newsgroups including sci.geo.earthquakes stating that I was considering creating a Web site where researchers around the world could post notes and develop computer programs associated with the science of earthquake forecasting. This present report is an update on that project. The effort is still underway. The present plan is to try to get the proposed Web site organized for the science of earthquake forecasting and then expand it to include other sciences such as tornado forecasting and different areas of medicine. The ultimate goal is to have discussion areas there for as many of the problems which threaten the health and lives of people around the world as possible. Professional and amateur computer programmers would probably be heavily involved with this work. Since that first report was posted last July I have been able to establish what looks like it will be a stable source of funding for the effort. It should at least enable me to continue working on the project and pay for things such as Web site rental fees etc. And I am presently working with two groups of legal people who are attempting to create a formal organization through which the actual funding and Web site operation etc. will take place. How fast this effort will progress is at the moment largely up to those legal groups. One of them is supposed to create the necessary legal documents. The other will be doing the filing with government agencies etc. Unfortunately, since I am not a major client of either group they are doing the work when they are not busy with other clients. A formal legal organization intended to be an introductory version of this new organization has existed since 2002. But it took my legal people about eight months to get all of the paperwork done and filed. The present effort has been underway for a month. Hopefully it will not take another seven months to finish. PROPOSED WEB SITE A number of years ago I worked with a Web site development expert to create a discussion group for earthquake forecasting. I believe that it eventually evolved into the two following discussion groups. The original Web site expert is no longer involved. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/earthwaves http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/wwwboard.html For this proposed Web site I would probably try to use a discussion board which would be a highly modified version of that second board. And it will take a fair amount of computer programming to create the new version. The problem with the existing discussion board control computer program is that it is does not offer the necessary posting options. When researchers post a note to such a board, rules have to be in place regarding what types of notes other people can post in response. That is an absolute necessity. And the structure of that present board does not contain those types of rules within the control computer program itself. More details regarding that proposed Web site can be found in the following report that I submitted for a United Nations disaster mitigation related discussion back in July of 2004: http://www.unisdr.org/wcdr-dialogue/t3-dialogue.htm#34 Based on their starting dates etc. I believe that my report might have already led to the creation of the following Web sites: http://www.hewsweb.org http://www.grassroots.org Keep your fingers crossed. If the effort to create this proposed Web site is successful then it might assist researchers in quite a few areas of science and medicine around the world with significantly accelerating their lifesaving efforts. -- http://mail.python.org/mailman/listinfo/python-list
Re: Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005
Bob Officer [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Mon, 11 Jul 2005 08:31:31 GMT, in sci.geo.earthquakes, edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT demand that public monies be giving to him to support his research. People around the world can download and use my data and computer programs for free, subject to normal copyright terms. For example, they cannot claim that they are the original developers of the computer programs. Where this person gets the stuff that he posts to Newsgroups is beyond me. -- http://mail.python.org/mailman/listinfo/python-list
Re: Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005
Hank Oredson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT I am looking for the SOURCE of the data, that is, where did YOU get the data from, so that I may obtain my own datasets. In particular I am interested in the EM dataset. July 14, 2005 Hi Hank, I have another important project that I need to focus on at the moment and unfortunately cannot yet spend too much time on this one. The purpose of the original post was simply to determine if there were any people interested in this proposed project. And your responses and others indicate that there are. Detailed information regarding the forecasting program can be found on the following Web page: http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/301.html Demonstration versions of the data files you are interested in plus an early, fully operational version of the Perl language data processing program itself can be found in the following files: http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/311.zip http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/312.zip http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/313.zip That program contains the following equations which do most of the important work: $londiff = 2**(1 + (abs($dblonval - $testlonval)/3.9)); $probvalue = $testsigstren*$testweight*(10 - $londiff); If you download all of the files and follow the ReadMe.txt instructions for how to organize a directory where the files can be stored and run, then if you have Perl running on your computer the ETDPROG.pl program should run okay under Windows XP and fairly well under Windows 98. Other operating systems probably need to have some adjustments made to the ETDPROG.pl file. The files that I myself actually use are too large to store at that Web site. As far as obtaining the original data, each file is a composite of a number of different types of data. For instance, the main earthquake data file contains actual earthquake data (mostly NEIS) and specially processed sun, moon, ocean tide, and Solid Earth Tide data. At the moment, the complete files including the EM signal data file have to be obtained by e-mail from me (no charge). An important goal of this project is to have all of them stored at a Web site for downloads. Also, I collect the EM signal data myself. But if this project ever gets off the ground those types of data will hopefully become available for free from many sources around the world. Finally, remember as I said earlier, I have been working on this project for 15 years. And it covers a lot of territory. A detailed discussion of it would fill a small book! -- http://mail.python.org/mailman/listinfo/python-list
Re: Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005
Hank Oredson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Hank Oredson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT I guess my question was not specific enough. What I wanted was the exact sources, so I could access the data. The exact data sets you used. July 13, 2005 Thanks again for the comments and interest. The original report in this thread should have contained pointers to all of the information you are requesting. But once again, here are some of the important URLs. http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/301.html That Web page contains information regarding the details of how the forecasting program works. Also stored there are copies of an early Zipped .txt version of the Perl program I am using along with Zip file versions of earlier versions of the .txt format database files that I am using. I had to Zip them because of their size and the limited bandwidth of that Web site. If you would prefer to receive them as regular text files then you can try contacting me by e-mail and I will try to send them along. Perl users who downloaded and ran that .pl program some time ago said that they had no trouble getting it to run on a Window's XP system. Other operating system users might encounter a few formatting problems etc. http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/90-05.html http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/128.html Those Web pages discuss the theories involved with this forecasting method. Some of the most important information is at the end of that 128.html Web page. http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html That Web page contains several types of forecast data along with some information regarding how to interpret them. http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/151.html That Web page contains some Help information with details regarding things such as the U.S. Navy's MICA computer program which I use to generate data for things such as the locations of the Earth, sun, and moon relative to the J2000 reference system. You should not expect to be able to instantly absorb all of that information though it sounds like understanding it should not be a problem for you. I have been working on the project for about 15 years. And unfortunately, every improvement seems to take days, weeks, months, ... Additionally, as I said in my first report in this thread, the multiple participants part of the project is not yet operational. For one thing, a suitable Web site has to be found. Right now I am simply trying to determine what the interest level there might be in such a project. And positive feedback that I have been getting by e-mail etc. has been encouraging. -- http://mail.python.org/mailman/listinfo/python-list
Re: Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005
Hank Oredson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT What observational data are used? What are the sources of that observational data? How are those sources accessed? Is there a database to hold historical plus current data? If so, is it centralized or distributed? The project might be of interest if the data sources are rich enough, complete enough, and current enough. July 12, 2005 Thanks for the response and questions. The following are my personal opinions on this. Briefly, the amount of data available for this type of effort is virtually limitless. And more of those data than most people could even deal with can be obtained for free. You don't have to build a new laboratory filled with expensive equipment. A reasonably powerful computer, Access to the Internet, At least some knowledge of science Some computer programming ability And a little imagination Are all that are required. Researchers have been attempting to do this type of work for probably as far back as we have historical records. The reason that previous efforts that I am aware of have not been successful is because two key discoveries needed to be made. They are referred to on my 90-05.html Web page as the Gravity Point and Earthquake Triggering Symmetry. Now that those discoveries have been made the door should be open to tremendously rapid advances in our understanding of how and why earthquakes occur and how to forecast them. Much of this research could be easily done by computer programmers. You don't need to be a geophysicist. If the data you are generating look statistically significant then they are probably important whether or not you actually understand the geophysical theories behind them. To actually forecast earthquakes using the procedure I have developed you need both warning signal data and earthquake data along with some ocean tide and Solid Earth Tide data. But one of the really great parts of this particular research project is the fact that many of the basic discoveries can be made by simply comparing earthquakes with one another. You don't need any warning signal data at all. And there is certainly no shortage of earthquake data! At my Web site there is a discussion of a concept called Earthquake Pairs. They are two or more earthquakes which were apparently triggered in the same manner. My data indicate that the two highly destructive 1998 earthquakes in Afghanistan would represent an Earthquake Pair. And the two highly destructive 1999 earthquakes in Turkey would represent another pair. Important discoveries can be made by determining what the similarities are between the two or more earthquakes in an Earthquake Pair and how they differ from other earthquakes. And since the group of earthquake warning signals that I am presently working with is being controlled by the same forces that are responsible for earthquake triggering, significant discoveries regarding earthquake triggering processes could be immediately applied to forecasting efforts. One of the reasons that geologists have not yet taken an interest in this particular effort could be because it is heavily reliant on celestial mechanics. And most geology researchers appear to me to prefer to focus on measuring forces within the ground. I presently suspect that astronomers would be a more likely group to take an interest in this science at first. And I am planning to contact some of them about that. -- http://mail.python.org/mailman/listinfo/python-list
Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005
PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT Posted July 11, 2005 My main earthquake forecasting Web page is: http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html Newsgroup Readers: If you circulate copies of this report to groups of computer programmers at different universities etc. around the world then they might find the subject matter to be interesting. The information in this report represents expressions of personal opinion. THE GOAL OF THIS REPORT This is part of an effort to get some idea regarding how many computer programmers and other researchers around the world might be interested in participating in a project aimed at developing life saving earthquake forecasting computer programs. That effort is not presently underway. And I don't know when or if it will get started. I am simply attempting to determine if other people believe that large numbers of volunteers would be interested in working on such a project or if there would instead be little interest in it. That information would be helpful for developing a plan for establishing a Web site where the project would be centered. Personnel running the following Web site have volunteered to make their site available for such an effort. But nothing has gotten underway so far. http://www.ictwhoiswho.net/comprend/index.cfm If quite a few people were interested in such a Web site based computer program development effort then after it got started work would undoubtedly progress quite rapidly. If only a few were interested then it might never get started. If you would like to express an opinion on the likelihood of people being interested in the idea then you can try posting a note in response to this one. The sci.geo.earthquakes or comp.lang.misc newsgroups might be appropriate if you wish to post to just one newsgroup. Of you can try contacting me by e-mail. THE CORE OF THE PRESENT EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING PROGRAM In connection with an earthquake forecasting effort which has been underway for the past 15 years I believe I have been able to crack the Earthquake Code. That means making crucially important discoveries regarding how earthquakes are being triggered. Two of them which are discussed on the following Web page are called the Gravity Point and Earthquake Triggering Symmetry. http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/90-05.html The earthquake triggering and forecasting theories and data on that Web page were discussed on my behalf by one of my research colleagues in the People's Republic of China at a disaster mitigation conference in that country in December of 2003. Governments and disaster mitigation groups around the world were told about the Web site earlier this year. And my Web site visitor counter indicates that some 100 to 200 people around the world are presently downloading information from the site each day. My earthquake forecasting computer programs use those Gravity Point and Earthquake Triggering Symmetry discoveries and others to compare electromagnetic energy field fluctuation type signals (EM signals) with more than 30,000 earthquakes which occurred since the beginning of 1990. Some 100 to 200 signals detected during a 3 month period of time are involved. For some as yet unknown reason they are often highly selective for earthquakes which are likely to occur near populated areas, making them unusually valuable. The earthquake which is the best match with all of those signals is rated # 1. The worst match would have a rating number greater than 30,000. A listing of more than 100 of the best matches is then posted perhaps once a week to the following Web page: http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html For a recent example of how well that approach to forecasting earthquakes can work, data displayed on that Web page on June 27, 2005 gave the following earthquake a # 3 rating (possible rating range: 1 to 30,000+): 2005/01/11 19:19:48 11.40N 86.51W 40.7 5.0 Near the Coast of Nicaragua (U.S. National Earthquake Information Service data) And less than a week later on July 2, 2005 the following powerful and strongly felt earthquake occurred: 2005/07/02 02:16:46 11.18N 86.40W 45.5 6.7 Near the Coast of Nicaragua 11.40N and 86.51W versus 11.18N and 86.40W Pretty good accuracy for a forecasting program! That earthquake was reportedly strongly felt in Managua. Had it occurred directly beneath the city and near the surface then I expect that it would have been devastating. WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE Basically, more sophisticated data processing and data display computer program subroutines need to be developed. They could be built on my already existing computer programs and data. People would develop new subroutines, give them a try, and see if they did a better job of determining or displaying where an earthquake might be about to occur. The subroutines could be stored at the proposed Web site.
Minor correction July 11, 2005
edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT it jumps strait to the display routine and uses the entered command to begin Should be the word straight instead of strait. -- http://mail.python.org/mailman/listinfo/python-list
Posts to other newsgroups July 11, 2005
edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT Posted July 11, 2005 The first posting in this series should have provided computer programming groups around the world with a good understanding of what is involved with this earthquake forecasting research effort. And I am not planning to add too many additional comments unless someone posts a response to the first report. However, a shorter summary report is being posted to a number of other newsgroups such as sci.geo.geology pointing interested parties to that first report. To see that summary report you can try visiting the sci.geo.earthquakes or alt.disasters.misc newsgroups. It briefly discusses two dramatically different approaches to doing scientific research. -- http://mail.python.org/mailman/listinfo/python-list
