Re: [R] iraq statistics - OT
On 5/19/06, Gabor Grothendieck [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I came across this one: http://www.nysun.com/article/32787 which says that the violent death rate in Iraq (which presumably includes violent deaths from the war) is lower than the violent death rate in major American cities. Does anyone have any insights from statistics on how to interpret this? Since I posted this a number of people have responded online and offline and have included a number of links. I am providing the links from the offline responders. I was hoping to summarize all this in an objective fashion focused on statistics but there is enough information here that I was concerned I might not do a thorough job so I am simply providing the links plus some short comments to summarize the links that did not already appear on the list. The original idea of making this comparison was apparently due to US Rep. Steve King and the first link gives his rebuttal to critics who made similar comments to those shown on the list so far. His main points are that the data does not come from him, he used published figures on icasualty.com (and for US the sources cited in the link) and that his original comments were in the context of civilian safety and so it would not be appropriate to include police which is why he excluded them (I had originally thought it included all violent deaths but that is not the case). Since my original post was about vacationing in Iraq I would think that excluding police would also apply to that too. A number of people on the list did point out that defining violent death was key. http://www.opinionjournal.com/best/?id=110008402 Part of the previous link is in response to the following link: http://www.opinionjournal.com/best/?id=110008392#iraq Original source of the iraq data: http://icasualties.org/oif/ Story of one person who tried to pursue the numbers: http://zenbeatnik.blogspot.com/2006/05/where-numbers-lead.html __ R-help@stat.math.ethz.ch mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide! http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
Re: [R] iraq statistics - OT
Note that the reference to icasualty.com should be icasualty.org. On 5/23/06, Gabor Grothendieck [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: On 5/19/06, Gabor Grothendieck [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I came across this one: http://www.nysun.com/article/32787 which says that the violent death rate in Iraq (which presumably includes violent deaths from the war) is lower than the violent death rate in major American cities. Does anyone have any insights from statistics on how to interpret this? Since I posted this a number of people have responded online and offline and have included a number of links. I am providing the links from the offline responders. I was hoping to summarize all this in an objective fashion focused on statistics but there is enough information here that I was concerned I might not do a thorough job so I am simply providing the links plus some short comments to summarize the links that did not already appear on the list. The original idea of making this comparison was apparently due to US Rep. Steve King and the first link gives his rebuttal to critics who made similar comments to those shown on the list so far. His main points are that the data does not come from him, he used published figures on icasualty.com (and for US the sources cited in the link) and that his original comments were in the context of civilian safety and so it would not be appropriate to include police which is why he excluded them (I had originally thought it included all violent deaths but that is not the case). Since my original post was about vacationing in Iraq I would think that excluding police would also apply to that too. A number of people on the list did point out that defining violent death was key. http://www.opinionjournal.com/best/?id=110008402 Part of the previous link is in response to the following link: http://www.opinionjournal.com/best/?id=110008392#iraq Original source of the iraq data: http://icasualties.org/oif/ Story of one person who tried to pursue the numbers: http://zenbeatnik.blogspot.com/2006/05/where-numbers-lead.html __ R-help@stat.math.ethz.ch mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide! http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
[R] iraq statistics - OT
I came across this one: http://www.nysun.com/article/32787 which says that the violent death rate in Iraq (which presumably includes violent deaths from the war) is lower than the violent death rate in major American cities. Does anyone have any insights from statistics on how to interpret this? __ R-help@stat.math.ethz.ch mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide! http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
Re: [R] iraq statistics - OT
Gabor Grothendieck wrote: I came across this one: http://www.nysun.com/article/32787 which says that the violent death rate in Iraq (which presumably includes violent deaths from the war) is lower than the violent death rate in major American cities. Does anyone have any insights from statistics on how to interpret this? Well, I don't. But I remain very skeptical anyhow. I had heard earlier that the violent death rate for *American military personel* in Iraq is lower than the violent death rate in American cities --- which seems more plausible. But still not very plausible. Or maybe major American cities are even worse than we had been led to believe. cheers, Rolf Turner __ R-help@stat.math.ethz.ch mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide! http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
Re: [R] iraq statistics - OT
On 5/19/2006 7:54 AM, Gabor Grothendieck wrote: I came across this one: http://www.nysun.com/article/32787 which says that the violent death rate in Iraq (which presumably includes violent deaths from the war) is lower than the violent death rate in major American cities. Does anyone have any insights from statistics on how to interpret this? The New York Sun is not a reliable newspaper. It may be completely fabricated, and it seems likely that it is: The population is 26 million. The violent death rate quoted there is 25.71/10, implying about 6700 deaths per year. There were about 846 American deaths in Iraq in 2005. It doesn't seem credible that there were only 8 deaths (from any violent cause) for each American death. There's a web site at http://www.iraqbodycount.net/press/pr13.php (biased in the opposite direction from the Sun) that claims there were 14000 civilians violently killed in 2005. This probably doesn't include police or members of the armed forces. Duncan Murdoch __ R-help@stat.math.ethz.ch mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide! http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
Re: [R] iraq statistics - OT
Rolf Turner [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes: Gabor Grothendieck wrote: I came across this one: http://www.nysun.com/article/32787 which says that the violent death rate in Iraq (which presumably includes violent deaths from the war) is lower than the violent death rate in major American cities. Does anyone have any insights from statistics on how to interpret this? Well, I don't. But I remain very skeptical anyhow. I had heard earlier that the violent death rate for *American military personel* in Iraq is lower than the violent death rate in American cities --- which seems more plausible. But still not very plausible. Or maybe major American cities are even worse than we had been led to believe. They are... Figures like the ones quoted for South Africa, Colombia, New Orleans c generally represent the existence of neighbourhoods with total social and law enforcement breakdown. However, numbers can easily be misleading. I notice that the crude death rate is substantially lower in Iraq than in Canada! The fact that 40% of the Iraqis are less that 15 years of age may have something to do with that... (and with the denominator of the violent death rate too). -- O__ Peter Dalgaard Øster Farimagsgade 5, Entr.B c/ /'_ --- Dept. of Biostatistics PO Box 2099, 1014 Cph. K (*) \(*) -- University of Copenhagen Denmark Ph: (+45) 35327918 ~~ - ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) FAX: (+45) 35327907 __ R-help@stat.math.ethz.ch mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide! http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
Re: [R] iraq statistics - OT
I guess it all depends on what you include in the category of violent death. This study is the only one I'm aware of to attempt to address this: http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140673604174412/fulltext (there's a registration but I think it's free, can't remember). -roger Gabor Grothendieck wrote: I came across this one: http://www.nysun.com/article/32787 which says that the violent death rate in Iraq (which presumably includes violent deaths from the war) is lower than the violent death rate in major American cities. Does anyone have any insights from statistics on how to interpret this? __ R-help@stat.math.ethz.ch mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide! http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html __ R-help@stat.math.ethz.ch mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide! http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
Re: [R] iraq statistics - OT
Peter Dalgaard [EMAIL PROTECTED] 5/19/2006 8:41 am wrote They are... Figures like the ones quoted for South Africa, Colombia, New Orleans c generally represent the existence of neighbourhoods with total social and law enforcement breakdown. However, numbers can easily be misleading. I notice that the crude death rate is substantially lower in Iraq than in Canada! The fact that 40% of the Iraqis are less that 15 years of age may have something to do with that... (and with the denominator of the violent death rate too). Another way this is misleading is that, even if you accept the numbers as given, they are comparing apples and oranges. As Peter points out, in the US cities cited there are some very bad neighborhoods. Tourists don't go to those neighborhoods. Most parts of those cities are much safer. In Iraq, the violence finds everyone. Peter Peter L. Flom, PhD Assistant Director, Statistics and Data Analysis Core Center for Drug Use and HIV Research National Development and Research Institutes 71 W. 23rd St http://cduhr.ndri.org www.peterflom.com New York, NY 10010 (212) 845-4485 (voice) (917) 438-0894 (fax) __ R-help@stat.math.ethz.ch mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide! http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
Re: [R] iraq statistics - OT
For what the article says, every country should have a war to have a lower violent death rate!! Gabor Grothendieck wrote: I came across this one: http://www.nysun.com/article/32787 which says that the violent death rate in Iraq (which presumably includes violent deaths from the war) is lower than the violent death rate in major American cities. Does anyone have any insights from statistics on how to interpret this? __ R-help@stat.math.ethz.ch mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide! http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html -- -- Angelo M. Mineo Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche e Matematiche S. Vianelli Università degli Studi di Palermo Viale delle Scienze 90128 Palermo url: http://dssm.unipa.it/elio __ R-help@stat.math.ethz.ch mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide! http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
Re: [R] iraq statistics - OT
Though I agree that the violent death rate in US cities is sad, I would also guess that the estimates are relatively accurate. I would also say that the experimental design assumed in the article is potentially badly flawed, with tremendous underreporting in Iraq and meticulous reporting in US cities. Hank On May 19, 2006, at 10:04 AM, Elio Mineo wrote: For what the article says, every country should have a war to have a lower violent death rate!! Gabor Grothendieck wrote: I came across this one: http://www.nysun.com/article/32787 which says that the violent death rate in Iraq (which presumably includes violent deaths from the war) is lower than the violent death rate in major American cities. Does anyone have any insights from statistics on how to interpret this? __ R-help@stat.math.ethz.ch mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide! http://www.R-project.org/posting- guide.html -- -- Angelo M. Mineo Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche e Matematiche S. Vianelli Università degli Studi di Palermo Viale delle Scienze 90128 Palermo url: http://dssm.unipa.it/elio __ R-help@stat.math.ethz.ch mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide! http://www.R-project.org/posting- guide.html Dr. M. Hank H. Stevens, Assistant Professor 338 Pearson Hall Botany Department Miami University Oxford, OH 45056 Office: (513) 529-4206 Lab: (513) 529-4262 FAX: (513) 529-4243 http://www.cas.muohio.edu/~stevenmh/ http://www.muohio.edu/ecology/ http://www.muohio.edu/botany/ E Pluribus Unum __ R-help@stat.math.ethz.ch mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide! http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
Re: [R] iraq statistics - OT
It seems that as time goes by, people including statisticians, forget the past and must re-invent it. Anyone interested should read Richardson's The Statistics of Deadly Quarrels. Volume 2 of The World of Mathematics. The book used to be given out as sort of a cracker-jack prize by book clubs everywhere. Gabor Grothendieck wrote: I came across this one: http://www.nysun.com/article/32787 which says that the violent death rate in Iraq (which presumably includes violent deaths from the war) is lower than the violent death rate in major American cities. Does anyone have any insights from statistics on how to interpret this? __ R-help@stat.math.ethz.ch mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide! http://www.R-project.org/posting- guide.html -- -- Bob Wheeler --- http://www.bobwheeler.com/ ECHIP, Inc. --- Randomness comes in bunches. __ R-help@stat.math.ethz.ch mailing list https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide! http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
