[www.niftyviews.com:32297] The Thought that counts....https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/vidyapati-ji-poet-laureate-rajiv-handa-clcrc

[Rajiv Handa]

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/vidyapati-ji-poet-laureate-rajiv-handa-clcrc

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[www.niftyviews.com:32246] The Song Divine .....https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/song-divine-rajiv-handa-unr3c

[Rajiv Handa]

*Murli Manohar Mohan Gridhar Hari Om*

*Dukh Bhanjan Mera Saath Na Chodo*

*Two things have fascinated me throughout my life-History and Celluloid,
  *

*The year was 1952, Vijay Bhatt working for Prakash Pictures, decided to
make a movie on Pandit Baijnath Mishra aka Baiju Bawra, based upon a story
by Ramchandra Thakur. The thing was, it was going to be the first Hindi
musical based upon Classical music. This was a risk the producers were
taking. A core team was formed with Zia Sarhadi writing the dialogues,
Naushad sahib doing the music, Shakeel writing the Lyrics and Rafi doing
the playback. Such is the transformational quality of truth and wisdom that
music that Exalts the Divine, turns out to be nothing short of divine
brilliance.The mellifluos rendition by Rafi sahib is a pure glorifying of
God, with intense passion and emotion, a masterpiece.  *

*Swami Haridas*

*A colossus in the Hindu Classical metier was Swami Haridas. A Vaishnavite
who mostly limited himself to temple music and to his Gurukul. One of his
most iconic disciples was none other than Mian Tansen. The regions
mentioned in history, are the bad lands of Chanderi, Rewa and Gwalior.
Tansen's fame spread far and wide, and then to the Rajput King Man Singh,
who appointed Mian ji into his Court.   *


*Baijnath Mishra*

*In the movie, Baiju is shown to be a mendicant, a bard with talent but no
knowledge of the classical. His is a journey to find his Guru. People
suggest that Baiju should seek tutelage under Swami Haridas. The Guru
though, is mortally sick. The guards at his Gurukul would not let Baiju
enter. The only way is to sing his way through. Shakeel Badayuni, who
primarily wrote in Urdu wrote the Bhajan, "Mann Tarpat Hari Darshan Ko
Aaj". Sung in Raag Malkaus, this Dhrupad style of singing has a elongated
start, a short middle and the final crescendo that ends in a blitzkreig
(Alaap, Jor, Jhala).*

*The song starts with hope, "Mann Tarpat Hari Darshan Ko Aaj", in the
antara it becomes a prayer, "Bin Guru Gyaan kahan se pauun, Deejo Daan Hari
Gun Gaon, Sabhi Gunijan pe tum raaj". At this point, the convalescing
Haridas starts getting strength in his legs. Curiosity, the name of the
Lord and that mesmerising voice forces him to find the source of Bliss, as
he struggles to stand and move towards the Temple in his Gurkul, under the
strains of the Shankh Naad, the Cymbals, Khartals, the flute and dholak,
the delighted crowd sings "Murli Manohar Mohan Giridhar Hari Om". *

* in a rapidly risng climactic beat, Swami ji reaches the feet of his God.
Hef irst looks up lovingly at the idol, then turns to look at Baiju-a
picture of serentiy, lost in the ultimate bliss. Swami ji raises his folded
hands to the God in Namaskar as does the chanting crowd gathered all
around. A miracle has just happened. Bharat Bhushan plays Baiju, Rai Mohan
plays the sick Haridas and their enactment forces you to raise your own
folded hands in praise of the Lord. *


*Raga Malkauns*

*This is one of the first three ragas on which Hindustani classica music
rests, and it's creation rests with none other Goddess Parvati. In literal
terms Malkauns comes from the two words Mal and Kauns, implying the one who
wears Snakes around his neck. It is said that Parvati created this Raga to
calm down Shiva in his cosmic dance form of Tandava, post the death of his
wife Sati-the daughter of Prajapati Daksh. This is a Shaivite Raga, which
features just 5 notes. The Raga is known for the non use of Murkis or loud
instruments. It is deeply divine, soothing and is predicated to be played
in the late hours of the night, in peace and solemnness.*

*The Movie*

*Baiju Bawra is regarded as one of the best 100 films ever made. The movie
won the Filmfare award of 1954 for Best Movie, Best Actor Bharat Bhushan,
Best Actress Meena Kumari, Best Music for Naushad sahib. It ran to full
houses for over 100 weeks and in today's terms earned an equivalent of USD
130 mn. *

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[www.niftyviews.com:32244] DTC Now?

[Rajiv Handa]

Will They? Wont They?



 It is good to raise the question of equalised wealth distribution bang in
the middle of an Election.  Leading voices, possibly short on the equities
side, are talking about the imposition of the Direct Taxes code. Those with
thin memories need to recall, both the DTC and GST were formulated in the
Rajiv Gandhi regime under the leadership of Vijay Tendulkar. While the GST
was steam-rolled through by Arun Jaitley, the DTC was kept in abeyance. It
is now nearly 3 decades for that document to have remained buried.

 Anyway, the DTC intends to do away with the separate treatment of Capital
Gains and intends to treatment income from Equities and stock markets as a
business income and tax it at the highest rates of tax. Basant Maheshwari
and many other senior managers have voiced these concerns to their
individual client base. A good time to introduce Spin during the Elections
2024.

Let's us see if people fall for the Doosra. The thing about these times is
no one knows who is on which side. If the Judiciary can threaten Private
hospitals with enforcing CGHS rates in 6 weeks, that's end of February 2024
and then postpone the matter to September 10, just 2 months before the CJ
retires, what more can be said about this country?

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[www.niftyviews.com:32173] BLKashyap-To piggy-back projects of DLF, ELAN & Embassy

[Rajiv Handa]

B L Kashyap secures a new order worth Rs 369 crore from DLF Home Developers
Limited
Read more At:
https://www.aninews.in/news/business/business/b-l-kashyap-secures-a-new-order-worth-rs-369-crore-from-dlf-home-developers-limited20230719121002/

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[www.niftyviews.com:32150] Nvidia-Blackwell

[Rajiv Handa]

   - *New Blackwell GPU, NVLink and Resilience Technologies Enable
   Trillion-Parameter-Scale AI Models*
   - *New Tensor Cores and TensorRT- LLM Compiler Reduce LLM Inference
   Operating Cost and Energy by up to 25x*
   - *New Accelerators Enable Breakthroughs in Data Processing, Engineering
   Simulation, Electronic Design Automation, Computer-Aided Drug Design and
   Quantum Computing*
   - *Widespread Adoption by Every Major Cloud Provider, Server Maker and
   Leading AI Company*

GTC—Powering a new era of computing, NVIDIA today announced that the NVIDIA
Blackwell platform has arrived — enabling organizations everywhere to build
and run real-time generative AI on trillion-parameter large language models
at up to 25x less cost and energy consumption than its predecessor.

The Blackwell GPU architecture

features
six transformative technologies for accelerated computing, which will help
unlock breakthroughs in data processing, engineering simulation, electronic
design automation, computer-aided drug design, quantum computing and
generative AI — all emerging industry opportunities for NVIDIA.

“For three decades we’ve pursued accelerated computing, with the goal of
enabling transformative breakthroughs like deep learning and AI,” said
Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA. “Generative AI is the defining
technology of our time. Blackwell is the engine to power this new
industrial revolution. Working with the most dynamic companies in the
world, we will realize the promise of AI for every industry.”

Among the many organizations expected to adopt Blackwell are Amazon Web
Services, Dell Technologies, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle, Tesla
and xAI.

Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet and Google: “Scaling services like Search
and Gmail to billions of users has taught us a lot about managing compute
infrastructure. As we enter the AI platform shift, we continue to invest
deeply in infrastructure for our own products and services, and for our
Cloud customers. We are fortunate to have a longstanding partnership with
NVIDIA, and look forward to bringing the breakthrough capabilities of the
Blackwell GPU to our Cloud customers and teams across Google, including
Google DeepMind, to accelerate future discoveries.”

Andy Jassy, president and CEO of Amazon: “Our deep collaboration with
NVIDIA goes back more than 13 years, when we launched the world’s first GPU
cloud instance on AWS. Today we offer the widest range of GPU solutions
available anywhere in the cloud, supporting the world’s most
technologically advanced accelerated workloads. It's why the new NVIDIA
Blackwell GPU will run so well on AWS and the reason that NVIDIA chose AWS
to co-develop Project Ceiba, combining NVIDIA’s next-generation Grace
Blackwell Superchips with the AWS Nitro System's advanced virtualization
and ultra-fast Elastic Fabric Adapter networking, for NVIDIA's own AI
research and development. Through this joint effort between AWS and NVIDIA
engineers, we're continuing to innovate together to make AWS the best place
for anyone to run NVIDIA GPUs in the cloud.”

Michael Dell, founder and CEO of Dell Technologies: “Generative AI is
critical to creating smarter, more reliable and efficient systems. Dell
Technologies and NVIDIA are working together to shape the future of
technology. With the launch of Blackwell, we will continue to deliver the
next-generation of accelerated products and services to our customers,
providing them with the tools they need to drive innovation across
industries.”

Demis Hassabis, cofounder and CEO of Google DeepMind: “The transformative
potential of AI is incredible, and it will help us solve some of the
world’s most important scientific problems. Blackwell’s breakthrough
technological capabilities will provide the critical compute needed to help
the world’s brightest minds chart new scientific discoveries.”

Mark Zuckerberg, founder and CEO of Meta: “AI already powers everything
from our large language models to our content recommendations, ads, and
safety systems, and it's only going to get more important in the future.
We're looking forward to using NVIDIA's Blackwell to help train our
open-source Llama models and build the next generation of Meta AI and
consumer products.”

Satya Nadella, executive chairman and CEO of Microsoft: “We are committed
to offering our customers the most advanced infrastructure to power their
AI workloads. By bringing the GB200 Grace Blackwell processor to our
datacenters globally, we are building on our long-standing history of
optimizing NVIDIA GPUs for our cloud, as we make the promise of AI real for
organizations everywhere.”

Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI: “Blackwell offers massive performance leaps, and
will accelerate our ability to deliver leading-edge models. We’re excited
to continue working with NVIDIA to enhance AI compute.”

Larry Ellison, chairman and CTO of Oracle: "Oracle’s close 

[www.niftyviews.com:32149] A Water Starved Nation-Agri, Construction & Fertilisers Could Take A Big Hit

[Rajiv Handa]

NEW DELHI, March 19 (Reuters) - India's main reservoirs have hit their
lowest March levels in five years, government data showed, indicating a
possible squeeze on drinking water and power availability this summer.
In major centres such as India's 'Silicon Valley' Bengaluru
,
home to firms like Google (GOOGL.O), opens new tab
, water supply is
already being curtailed.
The 150 reservoirs monitored by the federal government -which supply water
for drinking and irrigation and are the country's key source of
hydro-electricity - were filled to just 40% of capacity last week,
government data showed.
In the southern state of Karnataka, home to Bengaluru, the main reservoir
was down to 16% capacity.
Water reserves are the lowest for March since 2019, when reservoir capacity
fell to 35% and saw southern cities such as Chennai run out of water.
The situation could escalate the crisis in central and southern cities
which face extreme heatwaves in April and May. India's water resources get
replenished only around June with pre-monsoon and monsoon rains.
In other industrial states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and
agricultural states Uttar Pradesh and Punjab levels are below their 10-year
averages.
Longer term, there is a risk of water wars if governments do not act now,
said Sandeep Anirudhan, convener of the Coalition for Water Security.
The low water levels follow a monsoon season last year that saw the
lightest rains since 2018, after the El Nino weather pattern made last
August the driest in more than a century. The monsoon was also uneven, with
some areas receiving more rain than others.
01:34
A senior official in the federal power ministry said the ministry is
monitoring reservoir levels but does not yet anticipate a situation that
could lead to a shutdown of plants.
"If the situation becomes worse due to lack of rains, drinking water supply
will get priority over power generation," he said.
The federal water resources ministry and the water commission did not
respond to e-mailed requests for immediate comment.

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[www.niftyviews.com:32131] Freebee Nation

[Rajiv Handa]

India: A Pure Banana Republic


 I need to write these lines every few
years. We grow bananas, sell bananas, eat bananas and distribute bananas
for free. Almost 90 per cent of the population is either unemployed or
poorly employed. We applaud IPL, we applaud the rise in Real Estate, we
applaud the rise in stock markets but ignore the fact about immense poverty
that purely survives on hope and freebies. Free food, rations, housing,
medicare, power, water, transport and the like and we start believing that
non sense about viksit bharat.

The middle classes desperate for freebies have found the Stock markets as
their playground. Through insurance, mutual funds, pension funds and what
not their entire money is now moving into equities, not bank deposits. We
have an entire nation that wastes away monsoon water but spends money on
space programme, we have a nation that gives free rations so that people
produce non productive children that only add to numbers and nothing else.

Everything free to win elections is a sure way to encourage people to have
Sex-day night and all over 24X7. The others stare blindly at TV screens,
watch Miss World, adore the houses, cars and wives of others. Then there
are the roughly 2 crore cheerleaders who encourage people to buy stocks
repeatedly, often three times a day..entities with no earnings and dreams
that are five years away. Stocks with 100X PEs and Zero earnings.

This in my view is nothing more than Ripe Bananas. Enjoy, more so if you
get them free.

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[www.niftyviews.com:32123] Max Health-FY23 EPS Rs 7, Medanta-Rs 10, Aster DM-Rs 3, Jupiter Life-Rs 24-Why the 100X PE?

[Rajiv Handa]

FYI

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[www.niftyviews.com:32122] Hospitals-Arbitrary Judically Imposed Price Controls Will Dsimantle Private Medicare

[Rajiv Handa]

The National Health Policy (2017) envisages “universal access to good
quality health care services without anyone having to face financial
hardship as a result”. This goal is a clear affirmation of the commitment
to universal health coverage (UHC). The policy also recognises “the pivotal
importance of Sustainable Development Goals”. These list UHC as target 3.8,
to be achieved by 2030.
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Two measured indicators of UHC are the degree of financial protection
afforded to persons utilising needed health services, and the extent of
health service provision to the population. The former is assessed by
measuring and monitoring out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE), catastrophic
health expenditure, and the proportion of people made poor because of
expenditure incurred on needed health care. The service coverage index is
computed by combining tracer indicators across four domains: Reproductive,
maternal, newborn and child health; infectious diseases; non-communicable
diseases (NCDs); and service capacity and access. Adequate service coverage
is essential to correctly estimate OOPE since the non-availability of
accessible, affordable and quality health services can lead to people not
seeking needed care. Such foregone care results in spuriously low estimates
of out-of-pocket and catastrophic health expenditures, giving a rosy
picture of financial protection.

Related video: Health-care privatization could come at a cost, new research
suggests (cbc.ca)
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India is attempting to improve performance on both these indicators.
Comprehensive primary care, through Health and Wellness Centres,
strengthening of district and medical college hospitals, and establishment
of regional AIIMS are initiatives for improving service provision by the
public sector. Much of this care is provided free of cost. However,
existing public sector capacity is substantially supplemented by private
sector hospitals. Extending service coverage can undermine the principle of
financial protection which is cardinal to UHC. Claims about quality of care
are contested, with considerable variability across both public and private
hospitals.

India’s mixed health system evolved by default and not by design. Public
sector health services were the main vehicle for the delivery of organised
health services in the early decades after Independence. They dwindled in
number and decayed in quality in many parts of the country, due to low
levels of public financing and poor governance. Over time, the private
sector grew in presence and influence, building financial muscle through
investments that flowed in after liberalisation and globalisation opened
the Indian economy. Tertiary care provision in urban areas is now dominated
by the private sector.
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Both central and state governments are engaging private sector hospitals to
supplement public sector provision of services in secondary and tertiary
health care. This is done through central and state health insurance
schemes, which purchase services from private hospitals. Several large
employers also do so, through health insurance coverage for their
employees. Some individuals buy private health insurance while others pay
from their pocket for health services. Even insured individuals may have to
pay for costs extending beyond the insurance coverage (co-payment).

It is rational 

[www.niftyviews.com:32120] India-A Pure Momentum Market-Small & Mid Cap Stocks are Mostly Rigged

[Rajiv Handa]

Shares of several companies, in which Dubai-based *hawala* operator Hari
Shankar Tibrewala (sometimes mentioned as Tibrewal) owns a stake through
the foreign portfolio investor (FPI) route, continue to fall on Indian
stock exchanges. Cellecor Gadgets Ltd, in which Tano Investments
Opportunities Fund holds 13%, hit its lower circuit of 20% to Rs190.80. The
two FPIs allegedly used by Mr Tibrewala to own stakes in Indian companies
are Zemith Multi Trading DMCC and Tano Investment. Among the other stocks
affected were JTL Industries, Balu Forge and Sigachi Industries.

Earlier this month, the directorate of enforcement (ED), informing about
its searches on the money laundering networks linked with Mahadev Online
Book, revealed that Mr Tibrewala, who hails from Kolkata but is currently
residing in Dubai, is a huge *hawala *operator and has partnered with the
promoters of Mahadev Online Book.

It says, "ED conducted searches at his known premises and at the premises
of his (Mr Tibrewala's) associates. The searches revealed that Mr Tibrewala
owned and operated one of the illegal betting websites, skyexchange. He,
through his Dubai-based entities, was investing the betting proceeds in the
Indian stock market by way of the FPI route. He had also employed many of
his associates as director in various companies which were involved in the
layering of the betting proceeds by investing them in the stock market."

"He was also involved in large-scale *hawala* movement of the betting
funds. Accordingly, security holdings worth Rs580.78 crore in the name of
the entities beneficially owned by Mr Tibrewala have been frozen by ED
under PMLA," the agency says.

According to reports, following numerous searches, the ED is in the process
of obtaining statements from the promoters of listed companies who
purportedly utilised Mr Tibrewala's aid to allegedly manipulate stock
prices. As part of the investigation, the ED has also apprehended two
associates of the Mahadev group who are responsible for managing its
operations in India.

Quoting sources, a report from *Times of India (ToI)*

says,
stockbrokers and other intermediaries were connected to Mr Tibrewala and
promoters of the listed companies. "Mr Tibrewala's funds helped them to
manipulate share prices, resulting in significant profits for both but
causing losses to small investors. The ED has identified all those
connected to the chain, including the promoters, and will summon them for
their statements," the report says.

In a release last week, ED says Mr Tibrewala used Suraj Chokhani to launder
and hide proceeds of crime under the guise of share investment for Indian
companies. It says, "Majority of source for these investments has been
collected by way of receiving bank entries against cash in these companies
and utilising the proceeds for investment in share market. As of 29
February 2024, the Indian companies under the control of associates of Mr
Tibrewala held around securities worth Rs580 crore in stock portfolios.
Foreign entities also invested in India via FPI route and as of 29 February
2024 they were found to be holding securities worth Rs606 crore in stock
portfolios."

"The searches in Kolkata also revealed that Mr Tibrewala was also involved
in the manipulation of the stock market in collusion with the promoters of
the listed companies. Mr Tibrewala, using his immense capital, used to
create temporary fluctuations in share prices, driving them upwards, and
then withdraw funds once the prices reached a desirable level," ED says.

The shares of Gensol Engineering Ltd, in which Zenith DMCC owns 1.64% as of
31 December 2023, closed Monday at 7.67% down to Rs935.

Trading in Servotech Power Systems Ltd was frozen at the lower end of the
5% intra-day circuit filter at Rs82.10 after there were only sellers in the
scrip. Pritika Auto Industries Ltd fell nearly 2% to Rs33.75. Balu Forge
Industries shares fell 3.79% to end the day at Rs202.

Zenith DMCC holds a 4.7% stake in Servotech Power Systems, 1.57% in Pritika
Auto and 1.1% in Balu Forge.

OK Play India Ltd, in which Tano Investment holds 10.3%, ended Monday 5%
down at Rs17.40.

Tano Investment, the only foreign institutional investor (FII), holds a
4.87% stake in shares of Delhi-based arbitrage firm BLB Securities. The
company scrip was down 2% to Rs44.91.

Manoj Vaibhav Gems & Jewellers Ltd, in which Tano Investment owns a 1.8%
stake, fell 6.65% to Rs204.70. HMA Agro Industries, in which Tano
Investment owns 1.11%, fell 8.84% to close the day at Rs56.17.

Tiger Logistics (India) Ltd, in which Tano owns a 3.16% stake, ended Monday
nearly 5% down at Rs64.55. Tano Investment owns a nearly 10% stake in
Krishival Foods Ltd. The scrip also fell 5% to close the day at Rs251.

Mahadev Online Book is an umbrella syndicate arranging online platforms for

[www.niftyviews.com:32103] PM Ayushman Bharat Yojana-What Is Covered & Who Is Entitled?

[Rajiv Handa]

The government believes that only a healthy India can succeed in global
competition. In order to ensure affordable healthcare services to all
classes of people, a number of government-sponsored health schemes have
been introduced in recent years. Alongside, the government has also come up
with the Pradhan Mantri Ayushman Bharat health insurance scheme.
What is Ayushman Bharat health insurance?

Ayushman Bharat is a health protection scheme to provide health insurance
 to citizens. It provides insurance
coverage of up to Rs.5 lakh on a family floater basis to beneficiaries
every year in order to receive primary, secondary, and tertiary healthcare
services. The scheme was earlier referred to as AB-NHPS as it is an
initiative under the existing National Health Protection Scheme
 (NHPS).
Currently, it is known as Ayushman Bharat Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana
(PM-JAY). The government plans to distribute this scheme through national
insurance companies. The scheme subsumes the existing senior citizen health
insurance scheme as well as the Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana
.
Features and benefits of the scheme

   - A cover of up to Rs.5 lakh is available for the beneficiary family
   every year.
   - The scheme can be utilised to get primary, secondary, and tertiary
   healthcare services.
   - The benefits of the scheme can be availed at any government hospital
   or empanelled private hospital.
   - The eligibility of beneficiaries targeted towards the poor, deprived
   rural families and identified occupational category of urban workers’
   families based on the Socio-Economic Caste Census (SECC) 2011 data.
   - Package model will be followed to make payments. The package will be
   defined by the government-in-charge in terms of payment of total costs,
   specific services, and procedures.
   - An Ayushman Bharat National Health Protection Mission will be
   established for effective coordination between the Central and the state
   governments.
   - The scheme covers about 40% of the country’s population who are poor
   and vulnerable.
   - All expenses incurred by the beneficiary from his pocket during the
   hospitalisation will also be covered.
   - The cost incurred during the pre and post-hospitalisation period will
   be covered.
   - The insurance provides cashless hospitalisation facility.
   - Daycare treatment expenses are covered by the scheme.
   - The insurance scheme covers all pre-existing health conditions.
   Follow-up of medical examinations upto 15 days are also covered to ensure
   that the patients have recovered completely.

Ayushman Bharat Yojana Eligibility criteria for rural families

There are six deprivation criteria to identify the rural families that are
eligible for the benefits of the scheme. They are:

   - Families that do not have an earning adult member aged between 16 and
   59 years.
   - Households headed by female members having no adult male members aged
   between 16 and 59 years.
   - Households with a single room having makeshift walls and roof.
   - Households belonging to the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes
   categories.
   - Households that have disabled members with no able members offering
   support.
   - Landless households with manual labour as their basic source of income.

In addition, the following households are automatically eligible:

   - Destitute families who rely on alms.
   - Families of manual scavengers.
   - Households without proper shelter.
   - Families of bonded labour.
   - Primitive and particularly vulnerable tribal groups.

Eligibility criteria for urban families

An urban family must belong to one of the listed occupational categories to
be eligible for the scheme:

   - Street vendors, cobblers, and hawkers.
   - Domestic workers.
   - Rag pickers and beggars.
   - Construction site workers, plumbers, masons, painters, welders, and
   security guards.
   - Coolies.
   - Sweepers, sanitation workers, and gardeners.
   - Transport workers such as conductors, drivers, cart pullers, and
   others.
   - Artisans, home-based workers, handicraft workers, and tailors.
   - Washermen and watchmen.
   - Electricians, mechanics, repair workers, and assemblers.
   - Peons, helpers, shop workers, delivery assistants, attendants, and
   waiters.

Eligibility criteria for hospitals

Similar to setting eligibility criteria for beneficiaries, the government
has framed eligibility criteria for a hospital to be empanelled. The
criteria are:

   - The hospital must be registered with state health agencies.
   - Qualified medical and nursing staff must be available 24/7.
   - The hospital must have a minimum of 10 in-patient beds.
   - The medical facility must have an accessible washroom.
   - An interoperable IT system should be in place to manage data.
   - A complete record of Ayushman Bharat 

[www.niftyviews.com:32087] PayTM-Would Cyber Crimes Wing & RBI check this portal for Nuh/Jamtara type crimes?

[Rajiv Handa]

User complaints had spiked at Paytm Payments Bank much before the Reserve
Bank of India (RBI) enforced its regulatory actions on the company. The
payments bank saw a sharp jump in customer complaints in the last financial
year, as revealed in the company disclosures.

According to a report in The Economic Times, the payments bank reported
66,751 complaints across various categories in the fiscal year ended March
31, 2023. This is a steep two-and-a-half times jump from 26,692 complaints
that were reported in the previous year. The number of complaints were
25,988 in FY21 and 14,369 in FY20.
[image: Big Savings - Enhance Your Digital Life - Wide Range Of Products]
AmazonBig Savings - Enhance Your Digital Life - Wide Range Of Products

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These complaints are mostly user-generated and are solved by the bank
within five-six days.

Meanwhile, Paytm Payments Bank that has been embroiled in regulatory issues
announced that it has reconstituted its board to include banking and
administrative veterans. Paytm founder Vijay Shekhar Sharma also stepped
down from the board of the payments bank.

Paytm Payments Bank appointed ex-Central Bank of India Chairman Srinivasan
Sridhar, retired IAS officer Debendranath Sarangi, former Executive
Director of Bank of Baroda Ashok Kumar Garg, and retired IAS Rajni Sekhri
Sibal to the board as independent directors, parent company One 97
Communications stated in filings.

One 97 Communications also removed its nominee from the board and stated
that Paytm Payments Bank will commence the process of appointing a new
chairman.

The central bank has barred Paytm Payments Bank from receiving deposits and
credits from customers after March 15 for persistent non-compliance and
continued material supervisory concerns.

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their individual experience and perceptions and to share information
with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members
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express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the 
same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; 
or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or 
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[www.niftyviews.com:32009] TARC-Ashish Kacholia Exits

[Rajiv Handa]

Tarc Ltd
Scrip Code : 543249 Quarter ending : December 2023

Statement showing shareholding pattern of the Public shareholder

Category & Name of the Shareholders No. of shareholder No. of fully paid up
equity shares held Total no. shares held Shareholding % calculated as per
SCRR, 1957 As a % of (A+B+C2) No. of Voting Rights Total as a % of Total
Voting right No. of equity shares held in dematerialized form(Not
Applicable) Sub-categorization of shares (XV)
Shareholding (No. of shares) under
SubCategory_I SubCategory_II SubCategory_III
B1) Institutions 0 0 0.00 0.00 - - -
B2) Institutions (Domestic) 0 0 0.00 0.00 - - -
Alternate Investment Funds 2 130 13,00,000 0.44 13,00,000 0.44 13,00,000
Banks 2 51000 51,000 0.02 51,000 0.02 51,000
Insurance Companies 1 1275117 12,75,117 0.43 12,75,117 0.43 12,75,117
Sub Total B1 5 2626117 26,26,117 0.89 26,26,117 0.89 26,26,117
B3) Institutions (Foreign) 0 0 0.00 0.00 - - -
Foreign Portfolio Investors Category I 29 5669370 56,69,370 1.92 56,69,370
1.92 56,69,370
Sub Total B2 29 5669370 56,69,370 1.92 56,69,370 1.92 56,69,370
B4) Central Government/ State Government(s)/ President of India 0 0 0.00
0.00 - - -
B5) Non-Institutions 0 0 0.00 0.00 - - -
Directors and their relatives (excluding independent directors and nominee
directors) 5 2097450 20,97,450 0.71 20,97,450 0.71 20,97,450
Key Managerial Personnel 1 250 250 0.00 250 0.00 250
Investor Education and Protection Fund (IEPF) 1 892069 8,92,069 0.30
8,92,069 0.30 8,92,069
Resident Individuals holding nominal share capital up to Rs. 2 lakhs 54157
39212301 3,92,12,301 13.29 3,92,12,301 13.29 3,84,84,688
Resident Individuals holding nominal share capital in excess of Rs. 2 lakhs
70 24860744 2,48,60,744 8.42 2,48,60,744 8.42 2,48,60,744
Non Resident Indians (NRIs) 665 7228958 72,28,958 2.45 72,28,958 2.45
68,41,958
VIJAYKUMAR CHHOTABHAI KALIDAS PATEL 1 4257726 42,57,726 1.44 42,57,726 1.44
42,57,726
Bodies Corporate 449 15465776 1,54,65,776 5.24 1,54,65,776 5.24 1,54,58,776
Any Other (specify) 1325 5335578 53,35,578 1.81 53,35,578 1.81 53,33,248
Clearing Members 3 1234 1,234 0.00 1,234 0.00 1,234
Firm 71 1137334 11,37,334 0.39 11,37,334 0.39 11,37,334
Trusts 9 60620 60,620 0.02 60,620 0.02 60,620
HUF 1242 4136390 41,36,390 1.40 41,36,390 1.40 41,34,060
Sub Total B4 56673 95093126 9,50,93,126 32.22 9,50,93,126 32.22 9,39,69,183
B=B1+B2+B3+B4 56707 103388613 10,33,88,613 35.04 10,33,88,613 35.04
10,22,64,670

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their individual experience and perceptions and to share information
with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members
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administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to 
express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the 
same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; 
or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or 
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[www.niftyviews.com:32006] Singe-ing the Start-Up New Age EcoSystem

[Rajiv Handa]

India’s startup ecosystem has been singed by Paytm and Byju’s
controversies. Dominant founders and weak boards are a problem. But don’t
discount quiet successes.

This past week the Indian startup world has been whiplashed like never
before. Two of its biggest names, Paytm’s Vijay Shekhar Sharma and Byju’s
founder Byju Raveendran, face what’s arguably an existential challenge to
the businesses they have built.

Did it come as a shock to the people closely tied to the ecosystem? Not
really. For the wider population, however, these developments tarnish the
image of the new-age economy and its entrepreneurs who have been lionised.

[image: VSS Byju]
L-R: Paytm’s Vijay Shekhar Sharma and Byju’s founder Byju Raveendran

Rock star founders | Having had a ringside view, it’s fair to say that
Sharma and Raveendran epitomise the solo, alpha, go-for-broke founder the
technology world prizes immensely. They are also in some ways bigger than
the companies they have built. While one cannot write them off (think Adam
Neumann who came back to raise tons of venture capital after the WeWork
debacle) there are many lessons for the wider technology world especially
in a market like India.

Boom-bust cycle | Every technology boom cycle, like the recent 2021 hyper
funding period, creates a series of messy events which unfold subsequently.
Carcasses emerge once the dust settles. That’s what we are seeing. The
excesses of easy money (read a zero interest rate regime in US) ended in
severe blows being dealt to these companies recently. While the reset in
technology industry is underway and the funding squeeze continues, the
near-collapse
of Paytm Payments Bank

and Byju’s is reflective of how lack of governance,

compliance
and transparency and a culture which side-steps these critical issues can
run you down.

Image is not everything | Another big problem is the way founders in these
companies became larger-than-life characters before their startups really
achieved profitability or a steady state of being.

Paytm’s slow descent | Sharma’s online payments company One 97
Communications, which operates the popular brand Paytm, went public in 2021
amidst the most boosterish period for global tech. While Paytm’s parent One
97 Communications’ listing bombed, it has successfully created a
significant business around offline merchants, Unified Payments Interface
(UPI), FASTag, mobile wallets, bill payments. Due credit to Sharma and the
company for building a large fintech play in a highly competitive space
dominated by traditional banks. But the scale did not translate into better
control and compliance.

An industry veteran told me at Paytm, given the goal of growing the
business at high speed, governance was not a priority even after its IPO.
Reserve Bank of India’s action against Paytm Bank’s operations on January
31 came after it raised several red flags pointing to gaping holes in the
fintech’s internal systems.

Edtech cowboy | A similar cowboy-like way of running a company was the
story at edtech startup Byju’s. Once valued at $22 billion, it’s now worth
virtually nothing.

After
almost a year of widening chasm between the company’s investors and
Raveendran, now these shareholders want to oust the founder and his family
so that they won’t control operations.

Birthing alphas | A lot of what we see today is because risk investors in
privately held startups have not been able to rein in entrepreneurs
claiming they are founder friendly. Very little scrutiny, along with easy
availability of capital and an overall environment favouring entrepreneurs
has birthed and nurtured these alpha founders.

Don’t forget the successes | Paytm and Byju’s are not the only two
companies that define the past 15 years of Indian tech and startup
industry. There are founders who have built quietly, away from the
grandstanding and storytelling. Just as these two companies face tough
situations, others like publicly listed firms, including food-delivery
brand Zomato, insurance marketplace Policybazaar and new-age logistics
player Delhivery have turned profitable.

Basics matter | If entrepreneurs and startups focus on compliance, control
and governance from the beginning, and are given the time to grow in a
manner feasible for India, 

[www.niftyviews.com:31998] Four Strikes In One Month

[Rajiv Handa]

Four DII Favorites got punished in Jan 2024, Five if we add Coromandel...a
reminder of extreme speculation
  The actual
risk to the fund's performance or the fund manager lies in the possibility
of a well-known or extensively reported company revealing surprising
information. Prominent institutional stocks like #Polycab, #hdfcbank ,
#Zee, and #paytm experienced declines due to government intervention, poor
earnings, and a thwarted merger stemming from trust concerns. Employing
TimeMap for forward risk profiling of the market allows us to protect our
investors by avoiding any investments in the mentioned stocks. Mastering
the skill of stock selection is essential in investments; even more
critical is to decide what and when is the right time to avoid.
#Futurologist AYAN ANALYTICS PVT LTD

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administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to 
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same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; 
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[www.niftyviews.com:31960] Klement-Cynical Liquidity, Cynical Bubbles

[Rajiv Handa]

Forwarded this email? Subscribe here

for
more

>From cynical bubbles to cynical liquidity


JOACHIM KLEMENT

JAN 17







READ IN APP



Yesterday
,
I wrote about how investors tend to invest in overvalued assets when they
think other investors are optimistic about these assets. They are
effectively trying to ride a wave of optimism even though they know this
wave may not be grounded in fundamentals. The problem with this is that one
has to be constantly on the lookout for signs the wave of optimism is
breaking and then sell as quickly as possible. Hence, if investors tend to
ride such a wave of optimism, one expects trading volume to increase as
well as asset prices increase.

New research on trading volume and investor returns

lends
some credence to this hypothesis. Based on the share prices and trading
data for all US stocks between 1964 and 2021, this research reaches the
following conclusions:

   -

   Following a period of high share price returns, investors trade more in
   these stocks. This is an observation that has been widely known for some
   years, but what the new research found was that this effect also holds on
   different levels. A period of higher style returns or higher returns in 

[www.niftyviews.com:31933] TARC-When A Stock Captures Investor Imagination (from a blog post, no recos)

[Rajiv Handa]

TARC
• Before TARC it was known as Anantraj, where the brothers split. Now the 2
companies are Anantraj and TARC. TARC focuses solely on real estate
development in Delhi NCR region, with a massive land bank.
• The company has been given a life-line of around 1350crore through NCD’s
by Bain Capital. With this the company has paid all their financial
obligations. The company is on track to pay off these obligations in the
coming financial year and be debt free.
• All the land bank in the company is at negligible cost because it was
part of the company split. This puts the company in a very comfortable
situation for its construction. The real estate market is very hot & there
has been a change in people’s mindset in the Delhi NCR region, to get into
luxury apartments instead of farm houses.
• DLF sells their apartments in the same area for around Rs.30,000/sqft,
and they can command a higher valuation because of their brand. TARC sells
around Rs.23-25000/sqft a little discount to their peers. However, since
they don’t have cost of land, and construction cost and sales & marketing
doesn’t cost more than Rs.6000-9,000/sqft the company can enjoy healthy
margins of 60-65%.
• The company currently has more than 8000crs of project pipeline to
launch. They also have other land parcels in prime and central locations of
Delhi which will come under development once these launch. These projects
can also have sales value of 5000crs+.
• They are using the cash flows from their project of TARC tripundra which
is already more than 90% sold to fund the new projects.
• Their new projects recently mid-dec got RERA approved (TARC Kailasa-sales
potential of 5000crs) and are confident of selling more than 50% in the
coming 6 months. They are also on track to receive their RERA for 63A in
mid January, post which they will launch that project as well.
• After repaying their debt with interest and seeing more than 50% of this
project value coming straight to the bottom line, the market cap of this
stock should see an upside of 1500 (debt)+5000 crores (from these 2
projects) to it. Current mkt cap is around 4000crs, when bain entered it
was around 2000-2200crore. But if you add up the new expected cash flows,
and repayment of debt and see the potential of new projects, this should
clearly be more than a 10,000-12,000 crore market cap company. Which means
there is still an upside to almost 3x from these levels.

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[www.niftyviews.com:31923] TTKH-December 2023 SHP-Public

[Rajiv Handa]

B1) Institutions 0 0 0.00 0.00 - - -
B2) Institutions (Domestic) 0 0 0.00 0.00 - - -
Mutual Funds/ 3 281894 2,81,894 1.99 2,81,894 1.99 2,81,658
AXIS ELSS TAX SAVER FUND 1 281658 2,81,658 1.99 2,81,658 1.99 2,81,658
Alternate Investment Funds 1 159585 1,59,585 1.13 1,59,585 1.13 1,59,585
ABAKKUS DIVERSIFIED ALPHA FUND 1 159585 1,59,585 1.13 1,59,585 1.13 1,59,585
Banks 7 736 736 0.01 736 0.01 220
NBFCs registered with RBI 1 438 438 0.00 438 0.00 438
Any Other(Institutions (Domestic)) 3 261994 2,61,994 1.85 2,61,994 1.85
2,61,994
JUPITER INDIA FUND 1 215225 2,15,225 1.52 2,15,225 1.52 2,15,225
Foreign Institutional Investors 3 261994 2,61,994 1.85 2,61,994 1.85
2,61,994
Sub Total B1 15 704647 7,04,647 4.99 7,04,647 4.99 7,03,895
B3) Institutions (Foreign) 0 0 0.00 0.00 - - -
B4) Central Government/ State Government(s)/ President of India 0 0 0.00
0.00 - - -
B5) Non-Institutions 0 0 0.00 0.00 - - -
Directors and their relatives (excluding independent directors and nominee
directors) 3 32166 32,166 0.23 32,166 0.23 32,166
Investor Education and Protection Fund (IEPF) 1 146380 1,46,380 1.04
1,46,380 1.04 1,46,380
Resident Individuals holding nominal share capital up to Rs. 2 lakhs 15950
1860753 18,60,753 13.17 18,60,753 13.17 17,38,011
Resident Individuals holding nominal share capital in excess of Rs. 2 lakhs
12 500980 5,00,980 3.55 5,00,980 3.55 5,00,980
VIDHIT TULSHAN 1 147946 1,47,946 1.05 1,47,946 1.05 1,47,946
Non Resident Indians (NRIs) 387 83390 83,390 0.59 83,390 0.59 79,934
Bodies Corporate 265 264713 2,64,713 1.87 2,64,713 1.87 2,63,657
Any Other (specify) 6 1464 1,464 0.01 1,464 0.01 1,464
Clearing Members 6 1464 1,464 0.01 1,464 0.01 1,464
Sub Total B4 16624 2889846 28,89,846 20.45 28,89,846 20.45 27,62,592
B=B1+B2+B3+B4 16639 3594493 35,94,493 25.44 35,94,493 25.44 34,66,487

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[www.niftyviews.com:31896] TTK Healthcare-Cash on Books Rs 800 Cr, PE 32; Promoters 75, Institutions-10 per cent

[Rajiv Handa]

TTK HEALTHCARE LTD.-$
Scrip Code : 507747 Quarter ending : September 2023

Statement showing shareholding pattern of the Public shareholder

Category & Name of the Shareholders No. of shareholder No. of fully paid up
equity shares held Total no. shares held Shareholding % calculated as per
SCRR, 1957 As a % of (A+B+C2) No. of Voting Rights Total as a % of Total
Voting right No. of equity shares held in dematerialized form(Not
Applicable) Sub-categorization of shares (XV)
Shareholding (No. of shares) under
SubCategory_I SubCategory_II SubCategory_III
B1) Institutions 0 0 0.00 0.00 - - -
B2) Institutions (Domestic) 0 0 0.00 0.00 - - -
Mutual Funds/ 4 293723 2,93,723 2.08 2,93,723 2.08 2,93,487
AXIS MUTUAL FUND TRUSTEE LIMITED A/C AXIS MUTUAL FUND A/C AXIS LONG TERM
EQUITY FUND 1 285329 2,85,329 2.02 2,85,329 2.02 2,85,329
Alternate Investment Funds 2 160618 1,60,618 1.14 1,60,618 1.14 1,60,618
ABAKKUS DIVERSIFIED ALPHA FUND 1 159585 1,59,585 1.13 1,59,585 1.13 1,59,585
Banks 7 736 736 0.01 736 0.01 220
NBFCs registered with RBI 1 438 438 0.00 438 0.00 438
Sub Total B1 14 455515 4,55,515 3.22 4,55,515 3.22 4,54,763
B3) Institutions (Foreign) 0 0 0.00 0.00 - - -
Any Other(Institutions (Foreign)) 3 261994 2,61,994 1.85 2,61,994 1.85
2,61,994
JUPITER INDIA FUND 1 215225 2,15,225 1.52 2,15,225 1.52 2,15,225
Foreign Institutional Investors 3 261994 2,61,994 1.85 2,61,994 1.85
2,61,994
Sub Total B2 3 261994 2,61,994 1.85 2,61,994 1.85 2,61,994
B4) Central Government/ State Government(s)/ President of India 0 0 0.00
0.00 - - -
B5) Non-Institutions 0 0 0.00 0.00 - - -
Directors and their relatives (excluding independent directors and nominee
directors) 3 32166 32,166 0.23 32,166 0.23 32,166
Investor Education and Protection Fund (IEPF) 1 146480 1,46,480 1.04
1,46,480 1.04 1,46,480
Resident Individuals holding nominal share capital up to Rs. 2 lakhs 15002
1768159 17,68,159 12.51 17,68,159 12.51 16,42,085
Resident Individuals holding nominal share capital in excess of Rs. 2 lakhs
14 558885 5,58,885 3.96 5,58,885 3.96 5,58,885
VIDHIT TULSHAN 1 150246 1,50,246 1.06 1,50,246 1.06 1,50,246
Non Resident Indians (NRIs) 363 84101 84,101 0.60 84,101 0.60 80,645
Bodies Corporate 256 279456 2,79,456 1.98 2,79,456 1.98 2,78,200
Any Other (specify) 4 7737 7,737 0.05 7,737 0.05 7,737
Clearing Members 4 7737 7,737 0.05 7,737 0.05 7,737
Sub Total B4 15643 2876984 28,76,984 20.36 28,76,984 20.36 27,46,198
B=B1+B2+B3+B4 15660 3594493 35,94,493 25.44 35,94,493 25.44 34,62,955

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[www.niftyviews.com:31859] A Case For India Real Estate-Colliers

[Rajiv Handa]

Over the last decade (FY13 vs FY23), while average housing prices in India
have increased by around 90%, income levels captured by per capita income
have increased by almost 150%.

The festive season is underway, and it is that time of the year when
consumers loosen their purse strings to welcome abundance into their homes.
>From apparels, electronics and automobiles to gold, home furnishings and
property purchases, consumers are driving sales across sectors. Residential
real estate in fact is having one of the best performing years in the past
decade.

Now, to understand the probable trajectory of Indian real estate, it is
imperative to look beyond the current trends. Does the repo rate and
consequential home loan interest rates play a significant role in
influencing residential segment activity at the macro-level. Is it
affordability, which provides tailwinds to the housing sector momentum or
is it more of policy decisions which shape the contours of residential
activity in India. Factoring in a historical evaluation is likely to
provide potential clues for market analysts, homebuyers and investors in
Indian residential real estate.

Repo rate movement has low correlation with housing disbursements at the
macro-level

While home loan EMIs do have a role in swaying the home-buying behaviour at
the end-user level, the impact is more pronounced on fence-sitters as
compared to aspirational buyers. Consumers understand that repo rate and
hence EMI quantums are quite volatile over the tenure of a home-loan.
Homebuyers are more likely to alter the location, construction stage,
ticket and unit size, developer preference and housing society amenities,
rather than hasten or delay the purchase decision itself. Contrary to
popular perception, a low correlation between annual home loan
disbursements of *HDFC (one of the systemic banks having a significant home
loan book)* and repo rate clearly indicates that interest rates
comparatively have low bearing on housing activity in India, especially at
the broader industry level.

Regulatory measures bolster the upside and cushion the downside

Although the impact of interest rates on the overall housing market
activity seems relatively low, regulatory measures have a far greater
impact on demand and supply side dynamics. For instance, 2016 and 2017 were
two consecutive years of drop in residential sales and launches – the dip
in developer confidence and consumer sentiments can be attributed to three
landmark events – RERA & GST implementation and demonetisation in a very
short period of time. Similarly, of all segments, in the initial days of
the pandemic, most experts believed that residential real estate would face
the maximum brunt. However, various state governments stepped in with
reduction of stamp duty and registration charges by up to 2%. Such limited
period reductions along with extension in construction timelines helped the
housing market to remain buoyant in 2020 and embark on a steep V-shaped
recovery trajectory in 2021. The momentum was carried forward in 2022 and
2023, the years have witnessed significant traction in both sales and
launches, despite healthy increase in average prices across most Indian
cities.

Affordability – The pivotal element in housing market activity

Over the last decade (FY13 vs FY23), while average housing prices in India
have increased by around 90%, income levels captured by per capita income
have increased by almost 150%. In fact, the uneven growth in housing prices
and income levels is substantial, if we compare early 2000s and today.
Hence, affordability of home purchases in the country, measured by a factor
of average buying price of a 1000 sq.ft. house and annual per capital
income, has improved significantly from 50-60 in the 2000s to below 40
currently. With the influx of MNCs and success of service sector in a
post-liberalised Indian economy, affordability and hence residential sector
activity has always been on the growth course, even in the face of crises
such as dot-com bubble, 2007-08 financial crisis, NBFC sector crisis and
the more recent COVID-19 pandemic.

Last quarter to propel momentum ahead

The festive season in Q4, marked by willingness of homebuyers to finalise
property purchase decisions and developers offering attractive discounts
and freebies, has historically provided the final push to residential
activity within a year.  Almost 40% of the annual residential units sold
achieve closure in the last quarter. Both sales and launches in 2023, till
the third quarter, have come close to 2022 levels. Considering the
historical festive trend, 2023 is likely to witness 20-30% higher sales as
compared to 2022.

Residential real estate momentum is likely to continue in 2024 as well. The
Indian housing market will continue to derive strength from a multi-decadal
high affordability and the innate sentimental value of owning a house.
Transparency and better adherence to regulatory disclosures, all brought in
by RERA, 

[www.niftyviews.com:31813] TARC Kirti Nagar Could Raise Upwards of Rs 3000 crore

[Rajiv Handa]

TARC Kirti Nagar Delhi, an upcoming project by The Anant Raj Corporation,
is set to redefine luxury living in Delhi. This section provides deeper
insights into various aspects of this remarkable project, revealing why it
stands out as a beacon of opulence and modernity.
1. Unparalleled Luxury and Space

With only 417 units spread across 5 towers on 7 acres of land, TARC Kirti
Nagar flats Delhi offers a sense of exclusivity and grandeur. The spacious
units, ranging from 3440 sq ft for 3 BHK to 4250 sq ft for 4 BHK, are
designed to provide ample living space. Each unit features 6 ft wide
balconies and 10 ft wide decks
, presenting
residents with breathtaking views and a sense of openness rarely found in
Delhi.
2. Thoughtful Design and Layout

The layout of TARC Kirti Nagar luxury apartments Delhi is a marvel of
architectural design. The project ensures privacy and exclusivity by
offering only 2 units per floor in 3 BHK towers and 4 units per floor in 4
BHK towers. The 4 BHK units are akin to single units on each floor, with 3
sides open, creating an aura of a private villa in the sky.

3. Emphasis on Green Living

Approximately 7.5 acres, including a 4-acre DDA park, are dedicated to
green areas, making TARC Kirti Nagar
new launch
Delhi a haven for those who cherish nature. This commitment to green living
not only enhances the aesthetic appeal but also contributes to the
well-being of its residents.
4. State-of-the-art Amenities

TARC Kirti Nagar Delhi is set to host one of Delhi’s largest clubhouses,
 spanning 170,000 sq ft.
The clubhouse
plans to offer unparalleled indoor facilities such as an indoor heated
swimming pool, cigar rooms, library, banquet halls, spa, sauna, and more.
Outdoor fitness facilities include

   - an all-weather sports field,
   - tennis and basketball courts, and
   - an organic children’s play area.

The project truly offers a blend of leisure, health, and entertainment
options.
5. Exclusive and Secure Living

Security and exclusivity are paramount at TARC Kirti Nagar Delhi. Each unit
comes with 3 car parking spaces in a 3-level basement. The project also
features secure main gate locks with fingerprint sensors and face
recognition, ensuring the safety and privacy of residents.
6. High-End Specifications and Smart Home Features

The luxury apartments
 boast
high-end specifications, including modular kitchens with premium
appliances, Italian marble flooring, engineered wood flooring in bedrooms,
and UPVC doors and windows. Integrating smart home features and VRV air
conditioning further enhances the living experience.

https://opulnzabode.com/tarc-kirti-nagar-delhi/#usp%E2%80%8B
7. A Connection with Nature

Despite being in a bustling metropolis, TARC Kirti Nagar Delhi
 maintains a
close connection with nature. It is 5 km from the 500-hectare Pusa Hills
Forest and 5.5 km from the 865-hectare Central Ridge Forest. This proximity
to green spaces is a rare luxury in Delhi.
8. A Vision of Sustainable Luxury

TARC Kirti Nagar Delhi is not just about luxury; it’s about sustainable
luxury. The project aligns with TARC’s vision of creating spaces that blend
heritage, sustainability, and modern aesthetics. The project stands as a
testament to the belief that luxury and sustainability can coexist
harmoniously.

TARC Delhi Kirti Nagar: A New Benchmark in Luxury Living

TARC Kirti Nagar Delhi is more than a residential project; it’s a lifestyle
statement. With its thoughtful design, exclusive amenities, and commitment
to sustainable luxury, it sets a new benchmark in luxury living. This
project is not just about creating homes; it’s about crafting legacies
where every corner tells a story of elegance, comfort, and a deep-rooted
connection with nature.

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[www.niftyviews.com:31724] Healthcare Is The Key

[Rajiv Handa]

HEALTHFuture unclear for hugely effective US health program
[image:
Images photographed on the site of the Coptic Hospital, 2 December 2006 in
Nairobi, Kenya. The Coptic hospital is run through donations and is a
benificary of the PEPFAR project]
*Brent
Stirton/Getty Images*

The most impactful government program you don’t know about is facing an
uncertain future.

PEPFAR—an acronym for the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief—was
created by former President George W. Bush in 2003 and is credited with
saving 25 million lives around the world. Through the program, the US
government has invested more than $100 billion in treatment for HIV-AIDS
and related illnesses by providing training, medical infrastructure, and
antiretroviral drugs. PEPFAR remains the largest commitment

by
a country to confront a single disease, according to KFF.

Since its inception, PEPFAR has been renewed every five years with
bipartisan support. But that wasn’t the case in 2023, as lawmakers let the
program expire at the end of September.
What’s the holdup?

House Republicans delayed $1 billion

in
funding for PEPFAR, alleging the money was being used to fund abortions
overseas, something HIV policy experts and advocates have denied.

*A blow to the US’ global reputation: *The Biden administration is
concerned that letting this program lapse will hurt the US’ image abroad,
especially in the many African countries that have benefited from PEPFAR.

*What’s next?* PEPFAR’s future was already clouded due to gridlock in the
House, but newly elected Speaker Mike Johnson could present another
obstacle. Johnson is staunchly anti-abortion and a longtime ally of
conservative advocacy groups that have said renewing the program in its
current form will be seen as a vote to support abortion abroad.—*DL*


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[www.niftyviews.com:31715] MAXVIL is Now Max Estates

[Rajiv Handa]

*Its board of directors then directed the Investment and Finance Committee
to explore various restructuring options with Max Estates Ltd and rename
the company Max Estates after getting the required statutory approvals.*

Max Ventures and Industries Ltd

on
Tuesday said its board has approved amalgamation of the company with its
wholly-owned subsidiary Max Estates Ltd as a part of group's restructuring
exercise and to focus completely on real estate business. In November, Max
Ventures and Industries had announced an exit from specialty packaging film
business. The company sold its entire 51 per cent stake to Japanese joint
venture partner Toppan Printing for Rs 600-650 crore as part of the
company's decision to fully focus on real estate segment. Its board had
then authorised the Investment and Finance Committee to explore various
modalities for restructuring with Max Estates Ltd and be renamed as Max
Estates after receiving the required statutory approvals.

According to a regulatory filing, the company informed that the board of
directors, in its meeting held on April 18, has approved the "composite
scheme of amalgamation and arrangement amongst Max Ventures and Industries
Ltd and Max Estates Ltd and their respective shareholders and creditors."

The scheme is for amalgamation of Max Ventures and Industries Ltd (MVIL or
transferor company) with Max Estates Ltd (MEL or transferee company).

In consideration of the amalgamation, MEL or the transferee company will
issue its equity shares to the equity shareholders of the MVIL or
transferor company. For every one equity share held in MVIL, the
shareholders will be issued one share credited and fully paid-up in MEL.

After the scheme comes into effect, the transferor company will be
automatically dissolved without being wound up. Further, the shares held by
the transferor company in the transferee company will get extinguished and
cancelled.

"Management deliberated that the scheme is a part of an overall
re-organisation plan to rationalise and streamline the existing group
structure," the filing said.

The amalgamation would lead to simplification of the existing holding
structure and reduction of shareholding tiers to remove impediments, if
any, in facilitating future expansion plans and create enhanced shareholder
value.

The consolidation of businesses will create greater operational synergies
and efficiencies at multiple levels of business operations and will provide
significant impetus to their growth.

"The amalgamation would result in financial resources being efficiently
pooled, leadlng to centralised and more efficient management of funds,
greater economies of scale and a bigger and stronger resource base for
future growth which are presentiy divided amongst two separate corporate
entities within the group," it said.

MVIL and MEL operate businesses that complement each other and therefore,
can be combined for mutual benefit of the shareholders.

In November, Sahil Vachani, MD and CEO of Max Ventures and Industries, had
said, "The decision to divest the residual 51 per cent stake in specialty
packaging business to the existing partner is to generate additional growth
capital to deploy in the real estate business that offers tremendous growth
opportunities."

With the divestment, the company had said it would be able to create a war
chest of more than Rs 1,000 crore for expansion in the residential and
commercial real estate portfolio in Delhi-NCR.

The company's first 'Grade-A' office building 'Max Towers' in Noida,
comprising around 6-7 lakh square feet, has been almost fully leased. It
has developed second office building 'Max House' at Okhla in the national
capital with around 2 lakh square feet of leasable area.

The company is now developing a new office complex 'Max Square', comprising
7 lakh square feet of leasable area, on Noida Expressway. This is being
developed through a joint venture with New York Life Insurance Company,
which has a 49 per cent stake in the project.

*Source - PTI*

*(The story has been published from a wire feed without modifications to
the text. Only the heading has been changed)*

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[www.niftyviews.com:31693] US Banks Report Record HTM Bond Losses

[Rajiv Handa]

big bond losses likely widened in the current quarter due to a sharp
increase in market interest rates.

Bank of America (ticker: BAC) was sitting on $105.8 billion of losses

on
a $614 billion portfolio of mostly agency mortgage securities at the end of
the second quarter.

That loss could have widened by $10 billion to $15 billion in the current
quarter assuming no major rate moves by the end of this week, *Barron’s*
 estimates.

Our estimate is based on an increase of more than one-half percentage point
in the 10-year Treasury yield to about 4.5% in the current quarter. Rising
rates have translated into a decline of about 3% in the value of agency
mortgage securities, which account for the bulk of Bank of America’s
portfolio.

The portfolio value dropped by $7 billion in the second quarter on a
smaller rise in rates.

BofA’s losses are in a “held to maturity” portfolio, whose holdings, as the
name suggests, are unlikely to be sold. These losses aren’t required to be
reflected in its capital position based on current accounting rules. BoA
and other banks also hold securities as “available for sale,” and any
losses on those holdings depress capital. The bank has more than $3
trillion of total assets.

But the losses on the BofA held-to-maturity portfolio are real and way
exceed those of any of its peers. The losses are equivalent to more than
half its $184 billion of tangible equity in the second quarter. BofA is due
to report third-quarter results on Oct. 17 and it will detail the
bondholdings—and losses—in its financial supplement.

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Industry leader JPMorgan Chase
 (JPM)
was sitting on $33 billion of losses at the end of the second quarter.

The losses appear to have weighed on BofA’s stock, which is down 18%, to
$27.31, so far this year, the worst showing among its peers. JPMorgan
shares, at around $145, are up 8.6% in 2023, while Wells Fargo
 (WFC)
is off just 1%.

The mortgage-heavy BofA debt portfolio

has
an average yield of about 2.6%, which is considerably below market, with
current yields on mortgage securities of about 6%. The held-to-maturity
portfolio was valued at less than 85 cents on the dollar at the end of the
second quarter.

Why did BofA accumulate such a large portfolio at historically low rates in
2020 and 2021? The bank had experienced a big inflow of deposits during the
pandemic, at a time of weak loan demand, and decided to put a big chunk
into bonds. The move was also designed to help protect the bank’s net
interest margin if rates didn’t move or declined.

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Rival JPMorgan didn’t take this view. CEO Jamie Dimon told investors on an
earnings conference call in late 2020 that the bank wouldn’t load up on
bonds: “We’re going to make long-term decisions for the company. And if
your NII [net interest income] in the end gets squeezed a little bit, so be
it. But we don’t want to be in a position where we lose a lot of money
because we made investments in five- or 10-year securities which will lose
a lot if rates go up.”

Warren Buffett, the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway
 (BRKA),
which owns about 13% of BofA’s stock and is its largest shareholder, has
been critical of banks for loading up on mortgage securities at the worst
possible time in 2020 and 2021. The securities have the disadvantageous
tendency to lengthen in effective maturity when rates rise. Buffett called
them a “dumb” investment for banks

in
a CNBC interview in April.

Berkshire hasn’t added to its holdings in BofA this year. Berkshire also
has maintained a small bond portfolio in contrast to other insurers due to
Buffett’s longstanding—and correct—view that bonds long offered a bad
risk/reward
 relative
to stocks.

Bank of America executives have said the held-to-maturity portfolio, mostly
agency mortgage securities with minimal credit risk, will ultimately mature
and that the losses will melt away over time. Principal payments are
running at about $10 billion per quarter. The overall portfolio has a
weighted average life of about eight years.

The bank’s view is that its huge, low-cost deposit franchise of nearly $2
trillion effectively becomes more valuable when rates rise and acts as an
offset to the decline in the value of the bond portfolio.

Advertisement - Scroll to Continue

Evercore ISI Analyst Glenn Schorr asked on BofA’s first-quarter earnings
conference call in April whether 

[www.niftyviews.com:31692] Fin Cables-This MoneyLife Article is an Eye-Opener

[Rajiv Handa]

The tussle between the two factions of the Chhabria family, fighting for
the control of Finolex Cables Ltd, is among the many family feuds that are
currently on show and promises to be more entertaining than some of the
competing ones!

It is a highly convoluted dispute with many sub-plots, including a criminal
case for forgery which may make the succession episodes recorded in the
history of many dynasties of the past quite pedestrian!

The order of the national company law appellate tribunal (NCLAT) issued
last week has all the ingredients of an Agatha Christie novel and may
further queer the pitch in the tiff for the turf!
The crux of the dispute, which forms the basis of many petitions and
appeals in the countless fora around the country, is that the original
promoter of the Finolex group of companies, Prahlad P Chhabria desired to
apportion the empire between the different factions of the family, more
specifically, between his son Prakash and the nephew, Deepak.

This intent was supposed to have been implemented by an arrangement whereby
the articles of association of the holding company of the group, Orbit
Electricals Pvt Ltd, were amended to reflect the allocation of the
portfolio of the operating companies, especially Finolex Cables and Finolex
Industries, between Deepak and Prakash Chhabria, respectively.

However, in a conspectus of facts much disputed and still pending
adjudication, Prakash took full control of Orbit Electricals to the
exclusion of Deepak Chhabria and carried out various corporate actions
finally resulting in the matter reaching the NCLAT, where the orders were
delivered last week.

Finolex Cables conducted its annual general meeting (AGM) on 29 September
2023 and one of the items on the agenda for voting by the shareholders was
for the reappointment of Deepak Chhabria (DIN 01403799) as a whole-time
director designated as an ‘executive chairman’ of the company for five
years with effect from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2028.

As already mentioned, Orbit Electricals, by virtue of the dispute, had
passed the control to Prakash Chhabria. As a consequence of this, Deepak
Chhabria lost his status as the authorised person to vote on behalf of the
said promoter shareholder.

Since Prakash Chhabria took control of Orbit, though in highly disputed
circumstances, the voting on the reappointment of Deepak Chhabria became a
foregone conclusion. Therefore, the Supreme Court was moved to stall the
voting on the resolution.

However, no such injunction was granted; but the Court, by its order dated
26 September 2023, held that the voting results would be subject to the
final outcome of the ownership (status) dispute in the main petitions
before the civil courts and NCLAT.

Finolex Cables, which still remains operationally under the control of
Deepak Chhabria, had withheld the release of the voting data. Orbit had
approached the Supreme Court for the release of the voting data and, based
on the orders of the Court, the voting result was released last week.

Predictably, the promoter Orbit (46,956,120 shares) voted against the
reappointment of Deepak Chhabria. Public non-institutions, which include
the holding of Finolex Industries (22,187,075 shares), voted 78% against
the resolution. Interestingly, the public institutions had voted 65% in
favour of the reappointment and 35% against.

There are two parts to the dispute between the two factions. The first
part, which was partially decided by the NCLAT order, is the distribution
of control through the shareholding of Orbit in the group companies as
stated to have been expressed by the original promoter, Prahlad Chhabria.

The second is the purported agreement between the two listed entities,
Finolex Cables and Finolex Industries, on how the voting would be affected
on resolutions in regard to the cross-holding each has in the other. This
memorandum of understanding (MoU), dated 11 October 2011, is also a subject
matter of litigation but did not form part of the dispute decided by the
NCLAT’s order.
So, the focus presently moves to the NCLAT order and its implications on
the current impasse on the voting on the reappointment of Deepak Chhabria.
The aspect of the dispute that NCLAT decided on pertains to the validity of
an amendment made to the articles of association (AoA) of Orbit.

Articles 59 and 60 were inserted by an extraordinary general meeting (EGM)
of Orbit held on 8 September 2012 to carry out the intent of the promoter,
about who among the family members should manage the different entities in
the group and the person authorised to so represent in each case.

It was under this article that Deepak Chhabria was made the Orbit
representative on Finolex Cable and could vote on its behalf.

Prakash Chhabria claimed that the said articles were deleted in an EGM of
Orbit held on 3 May 2019. Deepak Chhabria contended that no such EGM was
held and, in any event, those two articles would fall within the nature of
‘entrenched articles’ as now 

[www.niftyviews.com:31691] Finolex Cables-Down from Rs 1200 to Rs 900; Controversy Ridden Stocks Never Recover!

[Rajiv Handa]

The tussle between the two factions of the Chhabria family, fighting for
the control of Finolex Cables Ltd, is among the many family feuds that are
currently on show and promises to be more entertaining than some of the
competing ones!

It is a highly convoluted dispute with many sub-plots, including a criminal
case for forgery which may make the succession episodes recorded in the
history of many dynasties of the past quite pedestrian!

The order of the national company law appellate tribunal (NCLAT) issued
last week has all the ingredients of an Agatha Christie novel and may
further queer the pitch in the tiff for the turf!
The crux of the dispute, which forms the basis of many petitions and
appeals in the countless fora around the country, is that the original
promoter of the Finolex group of companies, Prahlad P Chhabria desired to
apportion the empire between the different factions of the family, more
specifically, between his son Prakash and the nephew, Deepak.

This intent was supposed to have been implemented by an arrangement whereby
the articles of association of the holding company of the group, Orbit
Electricals Pvt Ltd, were amended to reflect the allocation of the
portfolio of the operating companies, especially Finolex Cables and Finolex
Industries, between Deepak and Prakash Chhabria, respectively.

However, in a conspectus of facts much disputed and still pending
adjudication, Prakash took full control of Orbit Electricals to the
exclusion of Deepak Chhabria and carried out various corporate actions
finally resulting in the matter reaching the NCLAT, where the orders were
delivered last week.

Finolex Cables conducted its annual general meeting (AGM) on 29 September
2023 and one of the items on the agenda for voting by the shareholders was
for the reappointment of Deepak Chhabria (DIN 01403799) as a whole-time
director designated as an ‘executive chairman’ of the company for five
years with effect from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2028.

As already mentioned, Orbit Electricals, by virtue of the dispute, had
passed the control to Prakash Chhabria. As a consequence of this, Deepak
Chhabria lost his status as the authorised person to vote on behalf of the
said promoter shareholder.

Since Prakash Chhabria took control of Orbit, though in highly disputed
circumstances, the voting on the reappointment of Deepak Chhabria became a
foregone conclusion. Therefore, the Supreme Court was moved to stall the
voting on the resolution.

However, no such injunction was granted; but the Court, by its order dated
26 September 2023, held that the voting results would be subject to the
final outcome of the ownership (status) dispute in the main petitions
before the civil courts and NCLAT.

Finolex Cables, which still remains operationally under the control of
Deepak Chhabria, had withheld the release of the voting data. Orbit had
approached the Supreme Court for the release of the voting data and, based
on the orders of the Court, the voting result was released last week.

Predictably, the promoter Orbit (46,956,120 shares) voted against the
reappointment of Deepak Chhabria. Public non-institutions, which include
the holding of Finolex Industries (22,187,075 shares), voted 78% against
the resolution. Interestingly, the public institutions had voted 65% in
favour of the reappointment and 35% against.

There are two parts to the dispute between the two factions. The first
part, which was partially decided by the NCLAT order, is the distribution
of control through the shareholding of Orbit in the group companies as
stated to have been expressed by the original promoter, Prahlad Chhabria.

The second is the purported agreement between the two listed entities,
Finolex Cables and Finolex Industries, on how the voting would be affected
on resolutions in regard to the cross-holding each has in the other. This
memorandum of understanding (MoU), dated 11 October 2011, is also a subject
matter of litigation but did not form part of the dispute decided by the
NCLAT’s order.
So, the focus presently moves to the NCLAT order and its implications on
the current impasse on the voting on the reappointment of Deepak Chhabria.
The aspect of the dispute that NCLAT decided on pertains to the validity of
an amendment made to the articles of association (AoA) of Orbit.

Articles 59 and 60 were inserted by an extraordinary general meeting (EGM)
of Orbit held on 8 September 2012 to carry out the intent of the promoter,
about who among the family members should manage the different entities in
the group and the person authorised to so represent in each case.

It was under this article that Deepak Chhabria was made the Orbit
representative on Finolex Cable and could vote on its behalf.

Prakash Chhabria claimed that the said articles were deleted in an EGM of
Orbit held on 3 May 2019. Deepak Chhabria contended that no such EGM was
held and, in any event, those two articles would fall within the nature of
‘entrenched articles’ as now 

[www.niftyviews.com:31690] Gold

[Rajiv Handa]

What’s the impact of geopolitics on gold?
Johan Palmberg
Senior Quantitative Analyst World Gold Council


Posted 13 October, 2023. 12:00

Gold has gained more than 3% this week largely attributed to an escalation
of geopolitical tensions linked to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. 1



As a crisis hedge, gold has a solid history, driven by its lack of credit
risk and negative correlation to risk assets. But it is likely that
geopolitical tensions on their own might influence gold returns, even when
accounting for the change in other factors. We set out to test this idea.

Capturing the transmission channels of geopolitical risk can be
challenging. Political context, geographical concentration and the
likelihood of proliferation all matter, as does whether the increase in
risk comes from a perceived threat or an actual act of aggression.

Also, many historical episodes are too idiosyncratic to act as useful
guides. Fortunately, a number of indices exist to quantify geopolitical
risk. Arguably the most well-known is the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index by
Matteo Iacoviello that measures both actual and perceived geopolitical
tension.2

 The
GPR index has a reliable track record of reflecting observed impacts to
underlying economic variables at a global level (Chart 1).


Chart 1. The Iacoviello GPR index consistently captures historical acts and
threats of geopolitical tension

Source: Matteo Iacoviello , World
Gold Council

We use our Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM)
 to
quantify the impact of key drivers on gold returns, both on monthly and
weekly frequencies.3

 It
is an invaluable and historically accurate guide. But from time to time,
the model produces a more noticeable residual. When this occurs, the likely
culprit is either a missing factor or a change in the sensitivity of gold
to the existing factors.

In 2022, for example, there were at least two instances of these more
sizeable residuals: in Q2 and Q3. We know subsequently that there was
considerable central bank buying during these quarters, and the Russian
invasion of Ukraine occurred in late February – two factors that are not
explicitly included in our model and are likely candidates for missing
variables. We don’t currently have a reliable series to capture
non-reported monthly central bank buying, but the GPR could conceivably
capture the additional impact of geopolitics on gold.

This is what our analysis shows. Even though the model already includes
inflation, bond yields, currencies, crude oil and implied gold volatility –
variables likely to respond to a rise in geopolitical tension – the impact
of the GPR index is visible,4

and
it adds to the model’s explanatory power (Chart 2

).

Chart 2: By adding the GPR index to GRAM, we can quantify gold’s
geopolitical risk premium
[image: For more on GRAM see here. GPR is added
as the de-meaned log of the GPR index.]

Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council

For more on GRAM see here
. GPR is
added as the de-meaned log of the GPR index.

The conclusion we can draw from this is that gold – likely via investor
flows – responds to elevated geopolitical risk even when controlling for
the movement in the existing variables in the model. And we can attach a
number to this response: an increase in the GPR index by 100 units holding
all else constant, has a c.2.5% positive impact on gold’s return. For
example, the GPR index rose from under 100 to over 250 at the start of the
Russia-Ukraine conflict last year, while 9/11 saw it spike above 450 from
under 50.

GPR index spikes have in recent times been short-lived, however. This
partly reflects a shorter news cycle than in the past. It does not suggest
that gold’s reaction is short-lived, as the follow-through from a spike to
other variables and sentiment can potentially last longer. But there is
also a slight medium-term risk for gold from a rise in tensions, via higher
inflation for example, which could potentially delay a gold-friendly
monetary pivot by the Fed and other central banks.

In summary, gold’s performance this week is not a coincidence and can be
measurably attributed to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. How long this
effect will 

[www.niftyviews.com:31662] Approaching Inflation-Trendlyne

[Rajiv Handa]

In a world where inflation is rising during a growth slowdown, central
banks face a challenge. The only tool they really have to beat rising
prices? Interest rates.

In the US, UK, India and the EU, inflation has fallen from its peak but is
still above the target. Trade wars and surging oil prices haven’t helped:
tensions with China, the world’s biggest exporter, are high, while OPEC+
countries are driving oil prices up as they try to boost their revenues.

Rising inflation increases costs for people, and takes a big bite out of
their savings.



In this environment, there are no easy answers. Central banks are divided:
Western powerhouses like the US and Europe are raising interest rates to
tame sticky inflation. In contrast, China and Japan are bringing down their
interest rates to boost growth.

Countries like Pakistan (22% interest rate), Hungary (14%) and Brazil
(12.8%) have kept interest rates high, while Japan (-0.1%), China (3.5%),
and South Korea (3.5%) are at the lower end of the spectrum.

Japan sees the lowest interest rates among global peers



The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is walking a tightrope, keeping interest
rates high while trying to prioritize growth.

In this week’s Analyticks:

 The global divide: Central banks differ on interest rates amid slowdown
worries

 Screener
:
Stocks with increasing debt levels as interest rates rise

Let’s get into it.
--
US Fed embraces "higher for longer" interest rate policy

The US Federal Reserve Bank has embraced a "higher for longer" approach to
interest rates. In just 15 months, the Fed has hiked interest rates to a
22-year high of 5.5%, the *fastest* increase in a short time. But the hike
has not led to the much-hoped-for drop in inflation, which stood at 3.7% in
August. This is quite above the Fed’s target of 2%.

Interest rates rise at the fastest pace in 2022 than any other time in US
history

The August spike in inflation puts the Fed in a tricky position, giving it
limited room to further increase interest rates. Still, the Fed has hinted
at one more rate hike before the end of 2023.

US inflation spikes in the past three months, prompting Fed’s hawkish stance

As is clear from the chart above, the Fed has opted for higher interest
rates rolled out over a longer period, rather than aggressive hikes at one
go. It hopes to prevent a recession with this strategy, and achieve a soft
landing for the US economy. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said
,
“While some factors are beyond central banks’ control, the US economy has a
good chance of a soft landing.”

Will things go as Powell planned, or is a crash landing on the horizon? So
far at least, the US economy has been resilient, with higher-than-expected
GDP growth

(revised upward from 1% to 2.1% in 2023) and higher consumer spending
despite rate hikes. But some analysts are predicting a recession

in 2024, as unemployment rises.
European Central Bank sticks to high-interest rates, despite recession
signals in its largest economy

With an inflation rate of approximately 5.2% in August, down from a peak of
10.6% in October 2022, the European Central Bank (ECB) is struggling to
bring inflation down to its target of 2% in the Eurozone. The ECB foresees
consumer inflation hitting 3.2% by the end of 2023, with the 2% target
expected to be met only in 2025. The prices of natural gas and crude
inching above $90 is contributing to sticky inflation.

Eurozone inflation remains stubbornly high

While the ECB has signalled one more rate hike in 2023, politicians,
investors and industries are pushing for a pause. European countries,
including Germany, the largest economy, are seeing a slowdown and a drop in
industrial production.

European countries’ 

[www.niftyviews.com:31623] AllCargo Terminals-Promoters-67 per cent, Public 33 per cent

[Rajiv Handa]

Allcargo Terminals Ltd
Scrip Code : 543954 Quarter ending : 28-Jul-23

Statement showing shareholding pattern of the Public shareholder

Category & Name of the Shareholders No. of shareholder No. of fully paid up
equity shares held Total no. shares held Shareholding % calculated as per
SCRR, 1957 As a % of (A+B+C2) No. of Voting Rights Total as a % of Total
Voting right No. of equity shares held in dematerialized form(Not
Applicable) Sub-categorization of shares (XV)
Shareholding (No. of shares) under
SubCategory_I SubCategory_II SubCategory_III
B1) Institutions (Domestic) 0 0 0.00 0.00 - - -
Mutual Funds/ 2 3382000 33,82,000 1.38 33,82,000 1.38 33,82,000
Tata Mutual Fund - Tata Small Cap Fund 1 320 32,00,000 1.30 32,00,000
1.30
Alternate Investment Funds 4 2065908 20,65,908 0.84 20,65,908 0.84 20,65,908
Banks 2 411 411 0.00 411 0.00 411
Sub Total B1 8 5448319 54,48,319 2.22 54,48,319 2.22 54,48,319
B2) Institutions (Foreign) 0 0 0.00 0.00 - - -
Foreign Portfolio Investors Category I 119 25889507 2,58,89,507 10.54
2,58,89,507 10.54 2,58,89,507
Acacia Institutional Partners, Lp 1 3591300 35,91,300 1.46 35,91,300 1.46
35,91,300
Acacia Conservation Fund Lp 1 4551300 45,51,300 1.85 45,51,300 1.85
45,51,300
Acacia Partners, Lp 1 5511300 55,11,300 2.24 55,11,300 2.24 55,11,300
Foreign Portfolio Investors Category II 12 598900 5,98,900 0.24 5,98,900
0.24 5,98,900
Sub Total B2 131 26488407 2,64,88,407 10.78 2,64,88,407 10.78 2,64,88,407
B3) Central Government/ State Government(s)/ President of India 0 0 0.00
0.00 - - -
Central Government / President of India 1 450 450 0.00 450 0.00 450
Sub Total B3 1 450 450 0.00 450 0.00 450
B4) Non-Institutions 0 0 0.00 0.00 - - -
Directors and their relatives (excluding independent directors and nominee
directors) 3 155600 1,55,600 0.06 1,55,600 0.06 1,55,600
Investor Education and Protection Fund (IEPF) 1 4643 4,643 0.00 4,643 0.00
4,643
Resident Individuals holding nominal share capital up to Rs. 2 lakhs 67893
19929800 1,99,29,800 8.11 1,99,29,800 8.11 1,99,29,800
Resident Individuals holding nominal share capital in excess of Rs. 2 lakhs
20 7874983 78,74,983 3.21 78,74,983 3.21 78,74,983
Mukul Mahavir Agrawal 1 330 33,00,000 1.34 33,00,000 1.34 33,00,000
Non Resident Indians (NRIs) 1736 2023015 20,23,015 0.82 20,23,015 0.82
20,23,015
Bodies Corporate 579 8925060 89,25,060 3.63 89,25,060 3.63 89,25,060
Any Other (specify) 1277 3059038 30,59,038 1.25 30,59,038 1.25 30,59,038
Clearing Members 10 7424 7,424 0.00 7,424 0.00 7,424
HUF 1212 1030711 10,30,711 0.42 10,30,711 0.42 10,30,711
LLP 50 1697645 16,97,645 0.69 16,97,645 0.69 16,97,645
Unclaimed or Suspense or Escrow Account 1 74237 74,237 0.03 74,237 0.03
74,237
Trusts 4 249021 2,49,021 0.10 2,49,021 0.10 2,49,021
Sub Total B4 71509 41972139 4,19,72,139 17.08 4,19,72,139 17.08 4,19,72,139
B=B1+B2+B3+B4 71649 73909315 7,39,09,315 30.08 7,39,09,315 30.08 7,39,09,315

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Disclaimer :-
"The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on
their individual experience and perceptions and to share information
with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members
in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The 
administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to 
express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the 
same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; 
or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or 
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[www.niftyviews.com:31550] The X Factor-Capital Calculus

[Rajiv Handa]

Her India

Addressing the nation on the country’s 77th Independence Day, Prime
Minister Narendra Modi said,

*“The additional power of women-led development will take the country
towards further progress.*

*Today, India can proudly say that if any country in the world has the
highest number of women pilots in civil aviation, it's our nation. Whether
it's the progress of Chandrayaan or the moon missions, many women
scientists are at the forefront.”*

And, then added:

*“…When I put forward the matter of women-led development in the G-20, the
whole G-20 group acknowledged its importance. And by acknowledging its
importance, they are giving a lot of emphasis on it.”*

This is not a one-off remark.

Like I pointed out in the introduction, the genesis of this strategy can be
found in the first Independence Day address when the PM promised a toilet
in every household. The Swachh Bharat campaign that followed has ensured
near saturation level coverage—we may quibble about the quality etc, but
can’t deny the coverage.

More recently the government signalled that next year’s Republic Day
Parade, the 75th anniversary of India becoming a Republic with the adoption
of the Constitution in 1951, will have only women participants in
contingents—marching, playing the band and on the tableau during the parade
on Kartavya Path.

It is a powerful and unambiguous signal to India (and the world) about the
central role for women in the future of the country.

A hint of things to come was evident in this year’s parade too.

Besides an armed police battalion of women officers belonging to the
Central Reserve Police Force, the Indian Navy’s tableau stood out. It
defined by the theme of Nari Shakti—you may recall that an all-women crew
undertook a surveillance sortie in a Dornier aircraft last year.

Remember that, since 2014, the housing for all scheme, cooking gas
connections and so are all being given by the government in the name of the
women in the household.

The PM’s address also reiterated the government’s audacious commitment to
create 2 crore ‘*Lakhpati (or millionaire) Didis*’ in villages by further
empowering self-help groups (SHGs).

*“Today 10 crore women are involved in women self-help groups and if you go
to a village with women self-help groups, you will find bank didis,
Anganwadi didis and didis who distribute medicines.*

*And now my dream is to create a base of 2 crore lakhpati didis in the
villages.”*

It is more than apparent that the government is slowly and steadily scaling
the empowerment of Indian women.
Her Money

Three days after the PM’s address, the union government released the latest
update on a nine-year old initiative: *Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana* or
the policy to provide no-frills bank accounts to the unbanked.

It revealed that 50 crore people now own a *Jan Dhan* account—further
shrinking the proportion of unbanked. Of this:

   -

   56% accounts belong to women;
   -

   67% accounts have been opened in rural/semi-urban areas.

This is not just about rural women or the unbanked women. Instead there is
a larger narrative.

One, that is slowly and steadily rewriting gender rules in India.
Anecdotally we are witnessing this growing gender parity in our workplace.
Now the effort is to address another big gap in promoting savings and
investment among women.

Besides the mindset-reset that is already underway, there is an urgent need
to reorient existing savings/investment options to accommodate the peculiar
needs of women. As a regular reader of this newsletter you will be aware
that I have touched on this theme in the past.

Shinjini Kumar, co-founder of SALT (mysaltapp), a platform for women buying
financial products, had very insightfully laid out this argument in an
interview granted to me previously.

*“Financial services overall have selection and elimination criteria across
products. There are eligibility conditions, ticket sizes, fee structures,
AML questionnaires etc. So, there is a lot of discretion to the supply
side. *

*And who determines and implements these eligibility and gating conditions?
It is largely the male, elite world. As a result the minorities, including
women, tend to get excluded. *

*Second, lifestyle choices and constraints of women are very different from
men. For the same job, women get paid less; more women take career breaks
for family reasons. More women drop out of the workforce and often don’t
come back. Also more women find it hard to start a new business, access
credit or VC funding. Fewer women own assets for providing collateral.*

*This influences your choices, usage and consumption of financial
products. Because you are different, your lifestyle is different, source of
money is different, quantity of money is different, your allocation of
investments, your need for saving or insurance are likely to be different
too.*

*Hence the need for different  products and solution.”*

As I explained then, a new constellation of circumstances—the convergence
of 

[www.niftyviews.com:31518] Tejas-Extract from the Annual Report 23

[Rajiv Handa]

Tejas-4G/5G




 Your company has successfully developed a comprehensive
portfolio of end-to-end optical, GPON/XGS-PON and
4G/5G products, which are installed internationally and
have won many global awards for innovation. I am pleased
to report that your company acted with agility, took supply
chain decisions, made changes to our processes and
systems to maximize our capacity to deliver and set the
platform for future growth. In FY23, your company was
declared eligible under the design linked PLI scheme and
we have committed to make an investment of ` 750 crore
over the scheme period.




 As you all are
aware, we have been conducting trials with
Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL) for our 4G/5G
Radios. The products have been well tested in a real
network landscape for some of the exacting KPIs related
to coverage, capacity and experience of a mobile network.
We are playing our part as a consortium partner to deliver
on the opportunity of powering one of the most modern
4G/5G mobile networks in the country. This will certainly
create international opportunities as well which will
enable the company to gain global economies of scale to
compete effectively in India and abroad. This will no doubt
put enormous onus on us – the Tejas team– and we are
gearing ourselves to scale our operations along multiple
dimensions.

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their individual experience and perceptions and to share information
with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members
in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The 
administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to 
express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the 
same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; 
or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or 
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[www.niftyviews.com:31488] Breakouts-II

[Rajiv Handa]

In my prior article about breakouts , I
missed out on a chance to speak about the recent change in market
structure, and what it means for all of us as investors.

Let’s go back in time a few decades. When I think about back then it felt
like, most investors bought stocks, collected their dividends, and let
things play out over multiple years. Of course, there were story stocks,
stocks that moved rapidly and captured investor attention, but most stocks
were boring and prosaic. As a result, most investors took a long-term view
of things, buying shares and sort of forgetting about them.

As investor timeframes have condensed, investing became more aggressive in
my view. No longer could you buy something cheap and wait for someone to
notice. Instead, you had to buy something that would go up, and go up
immediately. A valuation-based market evolved into a momentum-based one,
and price suddenly meant everything. As an institutional investor, you had
to keep up with your competitors. This was then accentuated by passive
investing, which periodically re-weights indices, often based on market
cap—hence companies that are appreciating in price tend to be the ones that
receive endless waves of passive buying. Finally, the 24-hour financial
news media would latch onto whatever stock that was making new highs and
spin stories about why it would go higher, bringing in droves of retail
investors, who were not only valuation-insensitive, but seemed to prefer
buying new highs.

I believe this  creates a highly reflexive and Pavlovian feedback loop, and
the rules are increasingly simple: buy stuff that’s going up, don’t ask
questions about valuation, and instead focus on narratives. Can the media
spin this?? Will the story run out of runway?? Is there enough blue sky to
make investors dream?? If the narrative can run, then you can rest assured
that as it makes new highs, others will be forced to buy shares, while
passive keeps re-allocating to whatever is going up fastest.

I’m not going to say that buying new highs didn’t work a century ago, in
fact, it worked quite well. That’s simply how human psychology and markets
have always functioned. However, I’m going to posit that new highs didn’t
rocket a share-price with quite the same intensity as they do today.
Instead, there was more of a give-and-take on the way higher, and the
process played out over years, instead of months.

The converse of a momentum driven market is that downside momentum keeps
feeding on itself. Of course, Paul Tudor Jones had this all figured out
decades ago, but it’s always been a bitter pill to swallow for us value
guys. I actually remember a time when something got so cheap that you could
buy a downtrend and with some patience, you’d get paid for your analysis.
Sure, it might take a few quarters, but valuation mattered. I increasingly
think it matters less. There just isn’t a mechanism in place to arrest a
share price in decline. To start with, passive is simply spraying the
screen with shares as it re-weights to buy more of what’s going up. Then,
you have all of the funds who’ve been preconditioned not to buy new lows.
That strategy hasn’t worked in over a decade, and anyone who’s tried to buy
new lows has been shredded, hence who’s going to buy?? If anything, active
investors are going to keep selling new lows.

Of course, the company can buy back shares, and we’ve seen massive buybacks
in companies trading for mid-single digit earnings multiples, but that’s a
slow process that plays out over years. In the past, something that was
cheap would attract investors and put a floor under the valuation, but as
most investors stopped caring about value and instead became fixated on
price momentum, the floor melted away. As a result, a surprising number of
my value investments culminate in the company getting acquired
 as the price gets too cheap,
and Private Equity takes advantage of the new market structure.

Returning to my narrative, I’m surprised at how many guys still want to
short something when the valuation seems irrational, as if two or five
times irrational is impossible. I’m also not surprised that certain stocks
go up every day. If the narrative is reverberating in the news, and the
shares are making new highs, then the shares are probably going to keep
making new highs. That’s just how market structure has evolved. Eventually,
the structure will evolve again, but for now, this is the structure. You
can fight it, you can argue with it, or you can take advantage of it.

Going full circle and returning to my post “On Breakouts,”
 it should be no surprise that investors,
especially in today’s market, love breakouts. New highs lead to newer
highs. Investors have been rewarded for chasing and penalized for not
chasing. No one wants to own a great story that’s stuck in the range.
Instead, they’ve been conditioned to wait until it 

[www.niftyviews.com:31485] TAMO DVR Extinguishment is A Capital Reduction Exercise

[Rajiv Handa]

Tata Motors Ltd.'s decision to extinguish its listed differential voting
rights or DVR shares will have three major tax implications for investors.
The company will cancel DVR shares, listed since 2008, by issuing ordinary
shares. The automaker will issue seven ordinary shares of Tata Motors for
every 10 DVRs held by investors. That's about a 23% premium over the DVRs'
pre-closing price and a 30%

Read more at:
https://www.bqprime.com/markets/tata-motors-dvr-cancellation-here-are-the-tax-implications-for-shareholders
Copyright © BQ Prime

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[www.niftyviews.com:31471] ISRO

[Rajiv Handa]

*The Surprising Striver in the World’s Space Business*
Author: Alex Travelli
Source: The New York Times (
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/04/business/india-space-startups.html

 )

Last week, the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO or India’s NASA
equivalent) launched its third lunar exploration mission with a lander and
rover, expected to land near the lunar south pole end of next month. Such
has been the progress in India’s rocket science over the decades, primarily
driven by the government owned and funded ISRO, it has spawned off some
promising investment and start up activity in the private sector.

*“Suddenly India has become home to at least 140 registered space-tech
start-ups, comprising a local research field that stands to transform the
planet’s connection to the final frontier. It’s one of India’s most
sought-after sectors for venture capital investors. The start-ups’ growth
has been explosive, leaping from five when the pandemic started. And they
see a big market to serve. Pawan Kumar Chandana, 32, Skyroot’s chief
executive, anticipates a global need for 30,000 satellites to be launched
this decade.”*

ISRO’s track record in launching satellites at a fraction of the cost has
driven India’s competitiveness in the sector: *“…With a success rate of
almost 95 percent, it has halved the cost of insurance for a satellite —
making India one of the most competitive launch sites in the world. And
there is money to be made launching equipment into space: That market is
worth about $6 billion this year and could triple in value by 2025.*

*…One of India’s advantages is geopolitical. Two countries that have long
offered lower-cost options for launches are Russia and China. But the war
in Ukraine has all but ended Russia’s role as a competitor. OneWeb, a
British satellite start-up, took a $230 million hit after Russia impounded
36 of its spacecraft in September. OneWeb then turned to India’s ISRO to
send its next constellation of satellites into orbit. Likewise, the U.S.
government would be more likely to approve any American company’s sending
military-grade technology through India than through China.*

*India’s vendor ecosystem is staggering in size. Decades of doing business
with ISRO created about 400 private companies in clusters around Bengaluru,
Hyderabad, Pune and elsewhere, each devoted to building special screws,
sealants and other products fit for space. One hundred may collaborate on a
single launch.”*

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[www.niftyviews.com:31458] MAXVIL-Mkt Cap Rs 3200 crore; June 23-Shareholding-Promoters 49; NYLife 24, Funds 4 per cent

[Rajiv Handa]

Max Ventures and Industries Ltd
Scrip Code : 539940 Quarter ending : June 2023

Statement showing shareholding pattern of the Public shareholder

Category & Name of the Shareholders No. of shareholder No. of fully paid up
equity shares held Total no. shares held Shareholding % calculated as per
SCRR, 1957 As a % of (A+B+C2) No. of Voting Rights Total as a % of Total
Voting right No. of equity shares held in dematerialized form(Not
Applicable) Sub-categorization of shares (XV)
Shareholding (No. of shares) under
SubCategory_I SubCategory_II SubCategory_III
B1) Institutions (Domestic) 0 0 0.00 0.00 - - -
Mutual Funds/ 3 928 928 0.00 928 0.00 848
Banks 1 150 150 0.00 150 0.00 150
NBFCs registered with RBI 2 4500 4,500 0.00 4,500 0.00 4,500
Other Financial Institutions 6 2550 2,550 0.00 2,550 0.00
Sub Total B1 12 8128 8,128 0.01 8,128 0.01 5,498
B2) Institutions (Foreign) 0 0 0.00 0.00 - - -
Foreign Direct Investment 1 31282950 3,12,82,950 21.26 3,12,82,950 21.26
3,12,82,950 3,12,82,950
NEW YORK LIFE INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD 1 31282950 3,12,82,950 21.26
3,12,82,950 21.26 3,12,82,950 3,12,82,950
Foreign Portfolio Investors Category I 23 13182634 1,31,82,634 8.96
1,31,82,634 8.96 1,31,82,634 20,77,260
NEW YORK LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY 1 2077260 20,77,260 1.41 20,77,260 1.41
20,77,260 20,77,260
FIRST SENTIER INVESTORS ICVC - FSSA ASIA FOCUS FUND 1 3940229 39,40,229 2.68
39,40,229 2.68 39,40,229
INDIA INSIGHT VALUE FUND 1 3141701 31,41,701 2.14 31,41,701 2.14 31,41,701
Sub Total B2 24 44465584 4,44,65,584 30.22 4,44,65,584 30.22 4,44,65,584
3,33,60,210
B3) Central Government/ State Government(s)/ President of India 0 0 0.00
0.00 - - -
B4) Non-Institutions 0 0 0.00 0.00 - - -
Key Managerial Personnel 1 88796 88,796 0.06 88,796 0.06 88,796
Resident Individuals holding nominal share capital up to Rs. 2 lakhs 27462
8859291 88,59,291 6.02 88,59,291 6.02 86,94,919
Resident Individuals holding nominal share capital in excess of Rs. 2 lakhs
148 13559516 1,35,59,516 9.22 1,35,59,516 9.22 1,35,59,511
ATUL B LALL 1 2272269 22,72,269 1.54 22,72,269 1.54 22,72,269
Non Resident Indians (NRIs) 584 2737917 27,37,917 1.86 27,37,917 1.86
27,34,311
Foreign Nationals 1 104 104 0.00 104 0.00 104
Foreign Companies 1 240 240 0.00 240 0.00 240
Bodies Corporate 247 2708797 27,08,797 1.84 27,08,797 1.84 26,97,203
Any Other (specify) 24 1859885 18,59,885 1.26 18,59,885 1.26 18,59,885
Trusts 2 401 401 0.00 401 0.00 401
FE SECURITIES PVT 1 1540002 15,40,002 1.05 15,40,002 1.05 15,40,002
Clearing Members 22 1859484 18,59,484 1.26 18,59,484 1.26 18,59,484
Sub Total B4 28468 29814546 2,98,14,546 20.26 2,98,14,546 20.26 2,96,34,969
B=B1+B2+B3+B4 28504 74288258 7,42,88,258 50.49 7,42,88,258 50.49 7,41,06,051
3,33,60,210

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[www.niftyviews.com:31432] MAXVIL-MAXEstates-Merger Cleared By NCLT-Chandigarh-Order Copy

[Rajiv Handa]

FYI

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MAXVIL-SOA-ApprovalNCLT Chandigarh.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document

[www.niftyviews.com:31424] HDFC-HDB Merger

[Rajiv Handa]

1. Last Day of Trade for HDFC-July 12.

2. New HDB shares could come by July 20.

3. Debatable if they will be tradeable the same day or more time lag for
listing of new HDB shares.

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IndiaSuperpower-HarvardSchool.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document

[www.niftyviews.com:31391] HDFC-HDB Merger Can Only Happen Post HDFCW3 Exercise Date of August 10 2023

[Rajiv Handa]

HDFC Warrants (W3)-1.70 Crore Outstanding-Exercise Price Rs 2165; Expiry
August 10 2023  During the previous year, the
Corporation had issued 5,68,18,181 equity shares at a price of ` 1,760.00
per share and 36,930 secured redeemable non-convertible debentures of face
value of ` 10,00,000 at par,
each due on August 11, 2023, carrying a coupon rate of 5.40% payable
annually, aggregating ` 3,693 Crore
simultaneously with 1,70,57,400 warrants at an issue price of ` 180.00 per
warrant with a right to exchange
one warrant with one equity share of ` 2 each of the Corporation, any time
before the expiry of 36 months
from the date of allotment, at an exercise price of ` 2,165.00 per equity
share, to eligible qualified institutional
buyers through 4ualified Institutions Placement under Chapter 9I of the
Securities and Exchange Board of India
(Issue of Capital and Disclosure Requirements) Regulations, 2018 and other
applicable regulations. Expenses
incurred for issuance of equity share amounting to ` 22.34 Crore has been
debited to securities premium
account in accordance with the provisions of Companies Act, 2013 in
financial year ended March 31, 2021.
The net proceeds of the funds raised through the issue has been utilised to
augment the long term resources
of the Corporation, to maintain sufficient liquidity in the uncertain
economic environment driven by the
outbreak of the CO9ID-19 pandemic, for general corporate purposes and to
finance organic and / or inorganic
business opportunities that may arise in financial services including
housing finance and/or in areas where
the subsidiaries of the Corporation operate.
26.7 As at March 31, 2022, 8,27,34,888 shares (Previous Year 9,18,16,731
shares) were reserved for issuance
as follows:
a) 6,56,77,488 shares of ` 2 each (Previous http://www.niftyviews.com/ 


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[www.niftyviews.com:31383] Max Ventures-Attempting To Be The Finest Developer in North India

[Rajiv Handa]

MAXVIL-Mkt Cap Rs 3200 crore

1. Reverse merger in mirror image with Max Estates awaiting NCLT approval.
This is the first trigger, as the three Core Rental of Max Estates will add
Rental Revenues to the Top and Bottom line immediately.

2. Second trigger-Max Estates 1 mn sft project in Sector 128 Noida is
learned to be pre-sold. The company will inform the Exchanges when RERA
approvals are in.

3. The details of the Sector 128 project are as follows:

-Area 10 Acres

-80 per cent to be left as a Green Area

-250 apartments with sizes of 4400 and 5200 sft.

- 4 Towers of 40 stories each.

-4 apartments to a floor

-Project execution in phases

-Tentative booking price Rs 18000 psft.

-Cost of construction is about Rs 3000 psft.

-Delivery 4 years.

-Turnkey contract with LNT

-The usual works, 3 tiered security, Gymn, Club et al will all be there.

A highly expected launch in the Noida market.

Land cost Rs 300 crore.

Total Expected Revenue Rs 1800 crore.

Do the math.

4. Two projects to come up in Sec 65 Gurgaon and Sector 29 Gurgaon. One
Residential, One mixed use.

Successful Execution with financial support of New York Life, will Re-Rate
the Stock.

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[www.niftyviews.com:31370] MAXVIL's Sector 128 Noida Residential project is Sold Out; Gross Revenues estimated at Rs 1800 crore.

[Rajiv Handa]

Max Estates, a subsidiary of Max Ventures and Industries Ltd (MaxVIL)
,
is expected to invest close to Rs 3,400 crore for new residential and
commercial projects in Noida and Gurugram over the next four to five years,
said Sahil Vachani, Managing Director (MD) and Chief Executive Officer
(CEO) of the company.

The company has acquired a land parcel in Sector 128 in Noida and entered
into a joint development agreement with a land owner for a housing project
in Gurugram. It intends to launch close to 250 premium luxury units in
Noida in July this year and an inter-generational luxury project in
Gurugram comprising around 1,200 units in the next calendar year, he said.

The real estate arm of Max Group is also planning to develop two office
complexes in Noida and Gurugram spread over an area of 26 lakh square feet
(sq ft) leasable area.

“The estimated cost of developing these four projects is around Rs 3,400
crore over the next four to five years,” he said, adding the sales revenue
would be around Rs 4,500 crore from the two residential projects.

Max Estates currently has a portfolio of 80 lakh sq ft of completed,
ongoing and upcoming projects. Of this, 35 lakh sq ft is housing and the
rest is commercial.  "Our aim is to develop residential projects spread
across 1 mn and 1 mn commercial every year,” he added.

“Our first residential project in Noida will be launched in July this year.
This is located in Sector 128, adjacent to Axis House. It is a 10-acre
rectangular land parcel. This is expected to be the least dense residential
project with 250 units and will have seven acres of multi green layered
landscape. It will be spread across one million sq ft and is expected to
have a Rs 1,300-crore plus top line,” said the company’s Chief Operating
Officer (COO) Rishi Raj.

The company has received the completion certificate for its commercial
project in Sector 129 in Noida. This is expected to be a seven-acre campus
of which four acres have been acquired from Axis Bank. “We will be
developing another one million sq ft in the four-acre parcel and
construction will start in September or October this year. It may take
three to four years to deliver this mixed-use campus in Noida by Max
Estates,” he said.  For the Gurugram commercial project, he said that the
company has acquired close to 7.15 acres of land that has around 1.6 mn sq
ft of leasable area development potential. “We will begin construction for
this around September-October this year. This retail and office development
will be delivered in two phases,” he added.

The company plans to come up with a residential project in Sector 36 A in
Gurugram. This joint venture project will be spread across 11.8 acres. “It
will the first inter-generational residential community that Delhi-NCR has
seen. (It would have a) development potential of 2.4 million sq ft, and top
line potential of Rs 3,200 crore plus. We will begin construction on this
in the first half of 2024,” he said.

Raj said that it is expected to be a transit-oriented development (TOD)
project comprising 1,200-1,400 units which will be a combination of senior
living and non-senior living.

Vachani said that the company has tied up with New York Life Insurance
Company as equity partner for commercial projects at the project level.
“New York Life Insurance Company has so far committed Rs 800 crore in Max
Estates commercial projects. New York Life Insurance also has around 23 per
cent stake in MaxVIL, which is listed on the stock exchanges,” he said.

Recently, New York Life Insurance Company announced an investment of Rs 290
crore to acquire a 49 per cent stake in Max Estates' upcoming commercial
project in Gurugram.

To a query on rental income, Raj said that the company earns close to Rs
100 crore from its completed assets and the annuity income is set to reach
Rs 450-500 crore in the next four to five years once all these upcoming
office assets are completed.

Max Estates was set up in 2016. Its first project was 222 Rajpur, a premier
residential community comprising 22 villas in Dehradun. It has also
developed three commercial projects Max Towers and Max Square in Noida, and
Max House in Delhi.

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[www.niftyviews.com:31361] Cummins-Global Technologies

[Rajiv Handa]

For the past hundred years or so, the world has run on oil. Petroleum fuels
such as gasoline, diesel, fuel oil and kerosene have powered automobiles,
trucks, ships, and airplanes with little competition from alternative fuels
.
This is rapidly changing, thanks to a host of new fuels. Here are the main
ones and their respective states of adoption.
RENEWABLE DIESEL DEMAND IS ON THE RISE

Hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO)
,
also known as renewable diesel, is a drop-in replacement for diesel. Its
use is only constrained by its availability, which is currently fairly
limited. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, there were five plants
producing renewable diesel in 2020, with a combined capacity of 550 million
gallons per year. Although it may seem like a lot, it is just a drop
compared to the overall diesel use—about 122 million gallons per day in the
United States alone.

With more production capacity coming online which could add 8 billion
gallons per day in capacity—and sustained demand—the use of renewable
diesel is bound to dramatically increase in the next five to ten years,
both for road applications and industrial applications.
BIODIESEL – WILL ITS AVAILABILITY IMPACT USAGE?

The use of biodiesel  blends
is not uncommon, though usage is also limited by availability. In 2020,
about 2 billion gallons of biodiesel were produced in the United States. In
many respects, renewable diesel is superior to biodiesel. Renewable diesel
is typically viewed as a drop-in replacement for regular diesel, while
operation with biodiesel blends exceeding B20 create challenges related to
fuel storage, gelling of the fuel in moderately low temperatures, and
injection system durability. It is therefore expected to supplant biodiesel
in all but niche applications over the coming decade.
NATURAL GAS IS SUPPLANTING LIQUID FUELS IN MANY INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS

Natural gas is currently the number one alternative fuel for motor
applications. Garbage trucks and transit buses running on natural gas are
especially common. Natural gas is also continuing to supplant liquid fuels
in a variety of industrial applications, such as peak power generation, oil
and gas production, mining, and other applications. The worldwide natural
gas consumption has been growing steadily at a rate of about 2% per year
for the past 20 years. For the period between 2021 and 2025, the
International Energy Agency is expecting a slight slowdown in demand
growth. Most of the new demand will be coming from the Asia Pacific region.
Beyond 2025, forecasts can differ widely, depending on macro scenarios of
renewable energy adoption.
RENEWABLE NATURAL GAS, A LOW-CARBON ALTERNATIVE TO NATURAL GAS

Renewable natural gas (RNG), is produced from organic waste such as animal
manure. It is nearly indistinguishable from natural gas obtained from
fossil resources. RNG is used as a low-carbon alternative to natural gas,
or simply where the availability of natural gas is limited. Although there
is a great demand for RNG, its availability is driven by applications and
geographies. For example, 60% of all on-road natural gas fuel used in the
U.S. is already RNG.
NATURAL GAS AND GREEN HYDROGEN BLENDING IS POPULAR AMONGST CONSUMERS

Blending hydrogen obtained from renewable energy into existing natural gas
networks is an attractive idea. For hydrogen producers, it solves the
problem of transporting the hydrogen to customers. For consumers, it
results in reduced CO2 emissions with no or little effort. Europe leads the
way in that regard, with several pilot projects under way. Off-network
blending is also actively pursued by power utilities, and is set to gain
traction. Off-network blending is an option for power plants when their
natural gas service does not blend hydrogen—yet. Power plants blend
hydrogen with the natural gas that they receive on their premises. The
hydrogen can be produced locally or received from other means. In Utah
(U.S.), for example, the Intermountain Power Plant is currently being
repowered with combustion turbines designed to run on a 20% blend of
hydrogen and natural gas initially, with the intention to progress to 100%
hydrogen-firing over the coming 10 years.
GREEN HYDROGEN USAGE EXPECTED TO GROW

The use of green hydrogen in motor vehicles is rare, but is expected to become
increasingly common in medium and heavy-duty applications
. Cummins Inc. is
developing both fuel cells and hydrogen internal combustion engines for use
in trucks, buses and other vehicles.

There is also a great deal of interest in using green hydrogen in chemical
processing industries and for ammonia production (primarily for fertilizer
production).
METHANOL AND AMMONIA – EASIER TO STORE, TRANSPORT AND HANDLE

[www.niftyviews.com:31306] Birla Corp-Dolat

[Rajiv Handa]

*YoY/ QoQ Performance:*

§  Revenue +8.8% YoY/ +22.1% QoQ to Rs24.6 bn (-3.8% DART estimate) led by
+4.6%/ +19.3% YoY/ QoQ in volume to 4.44 mt (-3.8% DART estimate) coupled
with +4.2%/ +2.0% YoY/ QoQ in realization/tn to Rs5,285 (-0.3% DART
estimate).

§  EBITDA -0.9%/ +90.0% YoY/ QoQ to Rs2.7 bn (-16.0% DART estimate) and
EBITDA margin -108 bps/ +398 bps YoY/ QoQ (-162 bps DART estimate) to 11.1%.

§  EBITDA/tn -1.3%/ +63.6% YoY/ QoQ to Rs615/ tn (-10.2% DART estimate) led
by +5.0%/ -2.9% YoY/ QoQ in cost/tn to Rs4,669 coupled with +4.2%/ +2.0%
YoY/ QoQ in realization/tn to Rs5,285. *Excluding Mukutban plant,
Revenue stood at Rs23.7 bn, EBITDA at Rs2.9 bn and EBITDA/tn at Rs689 (*+6.0%
YoY/ +41.2% QoQ)*. Mukutban’s EBITDA loss reduced to Rs146 mn from Rs297 mn
QoQ and it turned EBITDA positive in the month of Mar’23.*

§  APAT sharply down by 59.9% YoY to Rs596 mn (-28.7% DART estimate) due to
higher depreciation, finance cost and lower other income.

§  Trade share in volumes stood at 77% (Q4FY23) vs. 75% (Q3FY23) vs. 78%
(Q4FY22)

§  Premium cement share in trade volumes stood at 54% (Q4FY23) vs. 51%
(Q3FY23) vs. 49% (Q4FY22)

§  Blended cement share in volumes stood at 89% (Q4FY23) vs. 88% (Q3FY23)
vs. 92% (Q4FY22)



*Others (Consolidated)*

§  CFO stood at Rs8.1 bn (FY23) vs. Rs10.4 bn (FY22)

§  Capex stood at Rs6.3 bn (FY23) vs. Rs7.8 bn (FY22)

§  FCFF stood at Rs1.7 bn (FY23) vs. Rs2.6 bn (FY22)

§  Net Debt stood at Rs36.7 bn (FY23) vs. Rs34.7 bn (FY22)

§  Net Debt/ EBITDA stood at 4.8x (FY23) vs. 3.1x (FY22).

§  *Muktuban Plant – *To increase Mukutban's capacity utilisation and
realisation, company has expanded its footprint in proximal markets such as
Telangana, MP and Gujarat.

§  *Mining –* Coal production at Sial Ghoghri mine increased by 72% YoY to
0.35mt in FY23. Green power stood at 22% in FY23 vs. 21.8% in FY22.

§  On logistics front, company has taken multiple initiatives including
complete automation, fly ash transportation by specialised BTAP wagons and
increasing direct dispatches for cost optimisation.

§  *Jute division* reported cash profit of Rs81.9 mn/ Rs372 mn (Q4FY23/
FY23) vs. Rs703 mn (Q3FY23) vs. Rs93.6 mn (Q4FY22). Looking to scale up
sales of food-grade bags in overseas markets and expanding production
capacity of carry bags. Production from the expanded capacity is expected
to start in Jul’23.

§  Company is rationalising its brand portfolio and revamping its brand
architecture.

§  Company has launched *Project Shikhar* to achieve excellence in
manufacturing and operational efficiencies with an aim of aggressive cost
reduction.

§  Company has launched a campaign by the name of *4Vs* (vision, value
creation, velocity and visibility) to deliver focused and time-bound
results using the Objectives and Key Results (OKR) methodology; had
positive effect in Q4FY23 performance.

§  Company declared dividend of Rs2.5/ sh in FY23.

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[www.niftyviews.com:31252] Avoid Losses-GROWW

[Rajiv Handa]

Two boys were cycling in Gimli Motorsports Park.

When they looked up, they were absolutely shocked.

Gimli Motorsports Park was a motorsports park where amateur racers gathered
to drag race and go-kart. But before that, it served as something else.

It used to be a Canadian air force base. The air force base had been
converted to a racetrack later.

The smooth runway and taxiway of the air base were perfect to make a racing
track out of.

So when the Canadian air force abandoned the air base, it was converted to
a race track.

While cycling, when the boys looked up, they were struck to see a massive
passenger plane – a Boeing 767 – right over them, approaching silently.

The plane was so close, the pilot of the plane said he could see the scared
expression on the boys’ faces from his window.

What happened? And what was a passenger plane doing over a racetrack?

On July 22, 1983, Air Canada’s flight was being prepared for its journey
from Montreal to Edmonton.

The pilots were told that the fuel measuring system wasn’t working. So,
they would have to use a dripstick method to measure the fuel.

In this case, the pilot would have to convert a reading that was in
centimeters to liters to kilograms.

The problem was, Canada had switched from the imperial system to the metric
system in 1975 (miles, pounds, gallons, etc to kilometers, kilograms,
liters, etc).

The formula the pilots were using was for the older imperial system. And
so, they overestimated the fuel they had.

Mid-flight, the pilots ran out of fuel. The engines shut down.

Coincidentally, the captain was an experienced glider pilot.

They realized they wouldn’t be able to glide to their destination. But they
could land at an ex-air force base where the co-pilot had worked earlier.

This air force base was the same one – the one that had been converted to a
racetrack.

The pilots glided without engine power to this racetrack and attempted to
land.

Upon touchdown, the front of the nose of the plane touched the runway and
dragged – the front landing gear hadn’t locked in place.

Despite that, the plane did land safely.

All passengers and crew survived without any major injuries.

In hindsight, a mathematics calculation like this seems so obvious, you’d
assume nobody would make such a mistake.

But they did.

There are numerous examples of huge costs and damages being incurred
because of simple calculation mistakes.

Many investors also commit mistakes that seem easy to avoid.

One of the most common mistakes in newer investors is of treating ups and
downs in the same manner.

Someone’s stock investments fell by 10% in 1 month. Over the next 1 month,
it gained 10%.

Many investors think this is break-even; that no loss was made.

In this case, the truth is, the investor is still at a loss.

To understand this, let’s take a case where the investor started with Rs
1,000.

10% down is Rs 900. (10% of Rs 1,000 is Rs 100).

Now, the value of the investment is Rs 900.

10% up is Rs 990 (10% of Rs 900 is Rs 90).

So overall, the value is still Rs 10 less than the original amount.

This is what makes percentages tricky. It’s not the same as Rs 100 reduced
and Rs 100 added.

Think about it, the greater the loss, the greater the return you’ll have to
generate to break even: if you suffer a loss of 50%, you will need to make
100% in gains to break even!

This is why Charlie Munger advocates an investment strategy that focuses
less on making higher returns – but focuses more on avoiding big losses.

The downside is much most costlier than the upside.

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[www.niftyviews.com:31231] A Perfect Storm...Jared Lawrence

[Rajiv Handa]

"A financial crisis is a great time for professional investors and a
horrible time for average ones." - Robert Kiyosaki

I hate to be a pessimist.

*But there really is a storm brewing in the west.*

*Money printers go B*

With the money printers going back on to try to support the banks, it looks
like they are scrambling to stop a full-blown collapse.

So what they’ve done is give the banks a ‘loan’ which they have to repay
back in one year.

*Essentially they’ve kicked the can down the road.*

If they are bankrupt and need support now, and then you throw in another
loan *(with interest of course)*

What exactly is going to happen in one year when they have to pay that back
as well?

More loans?

Yes please Mr Goverment!

The problem here is that governments and central banks can’t just keep
printing more money to 'save the day.'

*Printing more money causes inflation.*

*It also devalues your money* *(meaning you can buy less now than you could
before).*

If a country keeps printing more and more money, what you can end up with
is hyperinflation.

Which is what we’re seeing in a number of countries around the world right
now.

*Printing money is a short-term solution to a long-term problem.*

What I like to call a ‘band-aid’ solution.

Essentially what they are doing looks something like this

After the 2008 financial crisis, Covid, and now this banking crisis, the
FED (Federal Reserve in USA) has printed over 50% of the original money
supply.

So for example, if the money supply was 1 million before.

They have now printed 500k on top of that.

What happens when you increase the supply of something?

Demand goes down.

And the price or value goes down.

This would mean that if you had 1 million in the bank from 2008.

You would now only have the purchasing power of 500k.

*Half your money has just evaporated into thin air.*

This is why they call it the ‘Silent Tax’.

I think a more accurate description would be daylight robbery.

If I was to start printing millions of pounds in my garage, what do you
think they would call that?

*Fraud.*

So why is it okay for the government to do this?

As you can see this is a massive problem and people are beginning to
understand what this means for their finances.

So the big question is.

*What can you do about it?*

The best thing you can do right now is to make sure that you minimise the
amount of cash you have.

Definitely have a small emergency fund, but besides that, you want the rest
to be either invested in assets or spent on learning new skills to increase
your income.

The trouble is, with the huge price increases over the last few years, many
people simply don’t have any spare cash anymore.

And actually in many cases, have started to use debt to fund daily
purchases.

In the USA they’ve started to use *‘Buy now, pay later’* for their fruit
and veg.

Not a good idea.

But what choice do they have?

Cut your costs.

Or increase your income.

*This is why you need more than 1 income stream.*

If you work in a job, your wages haven’t kept up with inflation.

Meaning that you are getting poorer and poorer every day.

In terms of increasing your income, being in a job restricts you to a few
options :


   - Asking for a massive pay rise
   - Doing more hours
   - Taking on a 2nd job.

*And none of these are great options because it requires more of your time
in exchange for that money.*

I don’t know your specific situation so it’s hard to give you the
personalised advice you need.

But what I know for sure is that you should be looking at ways to increase
your income & earn money while you’re not working too.

You need to buy assets that allow you to keep up with inflation at the very
least.

*But the best thing to do is to have income-producing assets that generate
profits, which you can then re-invest into other income-producing assets.*

This allows you to earn money *all day every day* rather than just when
you’re working.

This is how you avoid losing your money to inflation & begin to build some
wealth.

It’s also how the rich get richer.

Next week I’ll be discussing ways to increase your income so keep an eye
out for that.

Thanks

Jared

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same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; 
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[www.niftyviews.com:31230] Tipping Point....Anil P

[Rajiv Handa]

THE TIPPING POINT

Last week the *Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)*, the apex
global body monitoring climate set up under the aegis of the United
Nations, submitted its sixth assessment report.

Considered the most comprehensive assessment of climate change, the
findings are a wake-up call to the world, especially for the developed
countries—the largest polluters in per capita terms.

It argues that the current trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions is
unsustainable and the world is on the brink of breaching the cap of 1.5
degrees C agreed to by all countries.

In fact, several people, including Bill Gates, maintain that this cap will
be breached and the world should prepare for the consequences.

Indeed, if this dire forecast does come true, then the world will have
crossed the tipping point—after this the pace of climate change will go
into a downward spiral with devastating consequences.

And one should keep in mind that the IPCC assessment is based on the
meticulous research efforts of a collective of domain experts on climate
change. Indeed, it is the largest repository of global knowledge on
climate. In short the last word.

The research team included:

   -

   234 scientists on the physical science;
   -

   270 scientists on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability;
   -

   278 scientists on climate change mitigation

Reality Check

The outlook projected by the IPCC is frightening, especially given that the
world is already witnessing the effects of global warming. So any
deterioration will only advance the catastrophe.

Elaborating its warning, the IPCC report said:

*“Every increment of warming results in rapidly escalating hazards. More
intense heatwaves, heavier rainfall and other weather extremes further
increase risks for human health and ecosystems.*

*In every region, people are dying from extreme heat. Climate-driven food
and water insecurity is expected to increase with increased warming. When
the risks combine with other adverse events, such as pandemics or
conflicts, they become even more difficult to manage.”*

Sharing a graphic sourced from the *World Resources Institute (WRI)*, which
sums up the climate challenge that is already upon the world.


The inclement climate change situation warrants action on a war footing.
Accordingly, the IPCC report estimates that countries will have to halve
their emissions in the next seven years if the world is to contain the rise
of temperatures under 1.5 degree C.

India too is not aloof from these changes. It is particularly vulnerable as
it is home to the world’s largest population—most of whom are yet to fully
experience the benefits of development.

Yet, the impact of climate change is already snapping at its heels. The
most recent example was the devastating floods that hit Kerala. Worse is in
store. Sharing a statistic that captures this threat:

*In the last century India experienced about four natural disasters every
year. This average spiked to a staggering 17 per year in the last two
decades!.*

Nurturing Hope

The obvious question is whether all is lost? Fair thought. I would say the
odds are heavily stacked against the world.

Sticking to the cap of 1.5 degree C will require collective action. In a
world so deeply polarised, especially one in which almost every big nation
is embroiled in the Russia-Ukraine war, this is a tall and difficult ask.

But then don’t forget the covid-19 pandemic. Though, it had dodgy origins
in Wuhan, China and the World Health Organisation did not cover itself in
glory following the outbreak, the world did eventually offer a collective
response.

Yes, there are many distasteful lessons from that experience. The most
shocking one was the western nations moving to preempt the initial quota of
vaccines, leaving the poorer countries, already strapped for lack of
adequate health infrastructure, to fend for themselves.

But eventually, the world did see off the worst of the covid-19 threat.
Which is what lends hope about a similar response to mitigate and slow down
climate change.

The big catch though is that the ill-effects of climate change are not
easily tangible, unlike say economic growth or inflation. This makes it
difficult for the authorities to make a case to the general populace.

That is why the latest IPCC report is so significant. It reflects the most
comprehensive research, backed by science, which argues that the world has
run out of time: It is now or never.

Accordingly it sets out a blueprint for action, which is not rocket
science. It requires countries to adopt climate resilient development
strategies. To fund this costly pivot it makes out a strong case for
climate finance—and here all eyes are on the rich nations.

Not only have the rich nations been the biggest polluters (see the graphic
below) they have also been very reluctant to fund climate 

[www.niftyviews.com:31206] Sugar-FY23 Production To Fall Short, Crop Damage in Maharashtra/North Karnataka

[Rajiv Handa]

*Performed better in difficult times*

Triveni Engineering & Industries Ltd. (TEIL) is one of the few sugar
companies in Uttar Pradesh which has increased its profits in the last two
years, when most companies saw profits dipping due to unfavourable weather
patterns and reduced recoveries from the old cane variant Co-0238. This has
been largely due to the company’s presence mostly in Western Uttar Pradesh,
where weather conditions have been relatively better as well as its growing
engineering businesses.

With the company set to increase its ethanol volumes to 1,110 klpd from
3QFY24 (from 660 klpd currently) and 30%+ growth rates coming from its
power transmission (engineering) business, we see profits more than
doubling FY22-25E, with sales growing @ 15% CAGR. We value the
sugar/alcohol business and engineering business at different multiples
(based on industry norms), giving an SOTP-based target price of Rs
404/share, giving an upside of 45% from current levels.



*Sugar segment: *Materially higher crush is likely for TEIL in SS 2022-23
(till date) owing to the modernisation, de-bottlenecking at three sugar
facilities and larger area under cultivation. Sugar quotas, as per latest
data, have also increased by ~16% in FY2022-23. Though gross recoveries are
down a tad YoY (~30 bps in our estimates), the company’s sugar production
is likely to increase by 7% in FY23. We expect sugar prices to move up, as
overall India production is likely to be woefully short of estimates, due
to poor weather conditions in Maharashtra. We expect Uttar Pradesh mills to
benefit as due to a higher water table, Uttar Pradesh production will be
slightly better than last year’s levels. As per our channel checks, overall
Uttar Pradesh production is higher by 0.13-0.14 mn tonnes till date, with
marginally higher recoveries year to date for SS 2022-23. Maharashtra/North
Karnataka production for SY2022-23 is likely to fall more than 2 mn tonnes
YoY, signifying a good year for Uttar Pradesh sugar in terms of both sugar
quotas/prices. Outlook for SS 2023-24 is also subject to normal rainfall in
monsoon 2023, a factor which may be impacted by El Nino conditions.



*Alcohol segment: *The company has been steadily increasing its ethanol
capacities, and is currently at 660 klpd, with a quantum jump expected from
end of FY24 as two new distilleries are likely to be commissioned on dual
feedstock of sugarcane derived/grain totalling 450 klpd. The company is
also expanding its Indian Made Indian Liquor (IMIL) business to take
advantage through value addition of the loss in levy molasses (20% of
overall molasses mandated to sell to country liquor in Uttar Pradesh).



*Power Transmission segment:* Domestic market showing encouraging signs due
to various Government policies and overall economic growth following the
expiration of High Speed Licence Agreement with Lufkin Gears LLC in January
2023, the company will pursue the high-speed high-power segment
independently in exports, and is confident of enhancing market share in its
identified target markets. This business is under-appreciated and
undervalued as it is a high technology manufacturing high speed gears/gear
box business with >33% EBITDA margins. With larger export markets, defence
orders, orders from GEAE Technologies, etc. we expect a 30%+ CAGR in this
business with strong margins as an additional driver of profits for the
company. We expect revenues to touch Rs 4.5 bn in FY25, from just Rs 1.8 bn
in FY22 in this segment.



*Water business:* Water business for the company rests on municipal orders
and will continue to depend on Government resources (municipal
corporations) and is likely to be a low growth/low margin area for the
company. Domestic market opportunities are; however, increasing in Recycle
& Reuse of wastewater and water business is equipped to target this market.



*Outlook and Recommendation*

TEIL continues to be one of our top picks in the sugar/alcohol space among
the Uttar Pradesh mills, with an added excitement around the power
transmission business. The company has recently completed its buyback
programme @ Rs 350 for 2.28 mn shares, repaying a large part of the cash
generated from the stake sale in group company Triveni Turbine (~Rs 16 bn)
to shareholders, and also cancelling out cross-holdings in associate
company. We expect the company to generate RoE/RoCE of 23.8%/28.8%,
respectively, in FY25, after the full impact of new distillery capacities
come through. We believe market is likely to value higher proportion of
earnings coming from ethanol (75-80%) in FY25 at higher multiples given the
predictability and high return ratios of alcohol, where pricing is
regulated by India’s blending programme.

As we have segregated the multiples based on industry and peers’
valuations, we maintain Buy rating on the stock with an unchanged target
price of Rs 403.

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[www.niftyviews.com:31149] UNSP-Buy The Liquor, Sell The Stock?

[Rajiv Handa]

United Spirits Ltd. has paused whiskey sales in a number of states yet to
budge on price caps despite rising inflation. The move to stop sales rather
than see margins continue to erode is a risky bet, analysts at Mumbai-based
Dolat Capital wrote last month, that could complicate the firm’s pivot to
premium products. It also means a mounting loss of revenue across its
portfolio while costs rise at a double-digit pace.

“I didn’t realize how difficult it is,” 57-year-old Nagarajan said,
referring to the maze of red tape that spans 36 states and union
territories in a country where alcohol is still sometimes seen as forbidden.

“In the short term there will be some impact on market share,” she said in
an interview in the southern city of Bengaluru, adding that she hopes
pricing issues will be resolved by the end of September. “If we look at the
longer term perspective, I think it is the right thing to do for the
business and I think our investors, stakeholders, recognize that.”

Discussions are “going well” with up to five states, she said. Others such
as Haryana, Rajasthan, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, have already
implemented hikes.

“We are not taking a belligerent sort of move with any of the governments,”
Nagarajan said. “We are working through with them and we are showing them
the data, showing them the right facts.”

Diageo’s difficulties are emblematic of a market where a high potential for
growth for alcohol makers is complicated by tradition and taboo. Mahatma
Gandhi wanted to rid the country of liquor and some states, such as Bihar
and Gujarat, do ban alcohol. But a growing class of urbanist India
drinkers, seeking out new tastes and craft beverages, are also a profitable
opportunity.

Complex Relationship

Diageo -- which owns brands including Johnnie Walker and Smirnoff -- needs
about 200,000 permits each year to navigate rules that often change at
little notice. That includes in the capital, New Delhi, where more than 100
liquor shops have closed this month after the local government rolled back
licensing introduced last year to liberalize alcohol sales.

Currently, each state sets its own alcohol prices. Nagarajan said Diageo is
lobbying for a mechanism to allow pricing to rise with inflation, which the
company expects to remain heightened for the next two quarters, as well as
inclusion in India’s nationally applied goods-and-service-tax. The latter
would help streamline the process, though she said it might be a long way
off, with states unwilling to relinquish control over a lucrative revenue
source.

Beyond bureaucratic battles, Nagarajan’s first year as CEO -- she’s the
first woman to head a major alcoholic beverage firm in India -- has been
focused on revamping the booze titan’s local portfolio after the purchase
of United Spirits a decade ago from liquor and airline tycoon Vijay Mallya,
an embattled former billionaire currently facing extradition from the UK to
India after failing to repay bank debt.

Premium Pivot

Diageo is looking to tap a growing class of urbanite Indian drinkers. The
volume of Indian produced premium spirits is expected to more than double
between 2021 to 2026 at a rate of 18% annually, according to IWSR Drinks
Market Analysis, an industry researcher.

This year Diageo invested 315 million rupees ($4 million) for a minority
stake in Indian distiller Nao Spirits -- the maker of Greater Than and
Hapusa gins -- and launched its own artisan whiskey Godawan. The company is
also piloting its Guinness stout beer across a handful of states and
Nagarajan said she is “on the lookout” for further acquisitions to enhance
its premium roster.

Nagarajan has also shepherded the sale of 32 lower-market brands to Indian
beermaker Inbrew Beverages Pvt Ltd. for 8.2 billion rupees, as well as
franchising 11 others in a five-year deal between the two companies.

Investors have so far backed those plans, with United Spirits up 22% since
Nagarajan’s appointment in July 2021, compared with the 12% gain of India’s
benchmark S BSE Sensex. Coming out of disruption caused by the Covid-19
pandemic, the company reported its net income rose threefold on an annual
basis in the last quarter, beating analyst estimates, even as costs jumped
12%.

Growing Acceptance

Nagarajan’s own rise, after running Diageo’s emerging markets business in
Africa, is also a sign of tentative social acceptance toward alcohol
consumption in parts of India.

Born and brought up in New Delhi by middle-class parents who had fled
Pakistan during the bloody partition of British India in 1947, Nagarajan
credits her “progressive” late mother for advocating her education. After
graduating from one of India’s top universities, she forged a career across
global consumer goods companies, including at Nestle SA and Reckitt
Benckiser Group Plc, working in countries from China, Malaysia and
Singapore.

Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw, the executive chairperson of Indian drugmaker Biocon
Ltd. who found her own attempts to enter India’s brewing 

[www.niftyviews.com:31139] Can We Ignore El Nino? Repercussions for Agri, construction and cement stocks

[Rajiv Handa]

El Nino threat during the Indian monsoon 2023 is growing big. Warming of
Equatorial Pacific Ocean has commenced, albeit more authentically closer to
the coast of Peru.  Triple Dip La Nina will fade away soon to make ENSO
neutral. Atmosphere has been slower to respond and remain La Nina like.
Neutral conditions will gradually give way to El Nino, more so during 2nd half
of the season.

*February 2018*

Precisely, El Nino is the warming of the ocean surface or above average Sea
Surface Temperatures (SST's) in the central and eastern tropical Pacific
Ocean. This warming result shift in the atmospheric circulation (Walker's
Circulation). Consequently, rainfall reduces over India, Indonesia and West
Pacific ring countries, during monsoon. The low level trade winds which
normally blow from east to west along the equator, either weaken or reverse
their direction.

Currently, many lead countries like, United States of America, Australia,
Japan, India has different threshold for declaring El Nino event.  Bureau
of Meteorology Australia looks more critically at the trade winds, SOI
(Southern Oscillation Index), Sea Surface Temperature in Nino 3 & 3.4
region and numerical  model output before declaring the event.  BOM
observes +/- 0.8 degree as threshold of SST.  The United States Climate
Prediction Centre and International Research Institute (IRI) closely
observes the SST's in the Nino 3.4 region, tropical atmosphere response and
mandatorily considers NOOA's Oceanic Nino Index (ONI)  for several seasons
in a row.
ADVERTISEMENT

El Nino pattern does not repeat itself verbatim. However, in general, El
Nino events tend to develop during the period Apr-Jun and quite often reach
their maximum intensity during Oct-Feb.

El Nino projection based on initial conditions of Feb 2023 is finding
semblance with Feb 2018. Both are evolving El Nino, albeit 2023 appears to
be stronger than 2018.  El Nino share starts with 30% in June, reach 50% by
July and climbs to >/= 60% during 2nd half of season.

Monsoon 2018 ended with below normal rainfall recording 90.6% of long
period average (LPA). It narrowly missed mild drought.   As a rule, El Nino
is not to be read in isolation. Indian Ocean Dipole also has a weighty role
to play with.  IOD in 2018 was mostly neutral, to start with cold neutral
and changed to warm neutral after July.  Strong  +VE IOD  has the
potential  to neutralise blues of El Nino, to some extent.  Powerful
positive IOD  in 2019  reversed the ill effects of El Nino and the season
ended with above normal rainfall.

Indian Ocean Dipole index value for the week ending 12 Feb 2023 was -0.05
degree. But these are still early days . IOD projections do indicate the
index crossing threshold of + 0.4 degree  in June 2023 and stay +ve
thereafter.

El Nino prediction at this time of the year does suffer accuracy due to
'spring barrier'.  More authentic forecast with precision is likely in
April. IOD also need to be watch

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same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; 
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[www.niftyviews.com:31123] Another Negative Day

[Rajiv Handa]

The economist and Nobel laureate Milton Friedman once said, “There’s no
such thing as a free lunch.” Technology startups woke up to this reality in
2022, when central banks ended the long-running era of easy money and low
interest rates to fight inflation.

The recent interest rate hikes have been cold water for startups - from
April 2020 to January 2022, the Fed interest rate was effectively zero, at
0.25%. Now it's at 4.5% in the US and 6.5% in India, and is expected to
keep rising.

As the funding tap dries up, investors' focus is back on the fundamentals.
So listed startups like Paytm
,
Zomato

and PB Fintech

are changing their pitch

– ‘profitable growth’ is the new mantra, replacing ‘growth at all costs’.

With the pressure building on them to deliver results, startups are relying
on non-GAAP disclosures to show progress. New-age companies consider
reaching positive ‘Adjusted EBITDA’ as a key goal. 'Adjusted' EBITDA is a
favourite metric for startups, since it is more forgiving. Here, non-cash
costs like those related to employee stock options are added

back to EBITDA. Consequently, it doesn’t account

for the impact on earnings per share (EPS) from the conversion of ESOPs to
equity.



Some startups go even further. Zomato excluded

rental payments from its adjusted EBITDA metric till Q2FY23. These
additional adjustments amused

market experts

.





However, despite these accounting somersaults, there are winds of change in
the way startups are operating, as interest rates become less forgiving.

In this week’s Analyticks:

 New-age startups on a rocky path to attain operational profitability

 Screener
:
Mutual fund buys and sells in January 2023

Let’s dive in.
--

Indian startups focus on profitable growth, but have a long road ahead

Paytm marked a new chapter in Q3FY23 by posting a positive EBITDA of Rs 31
crore on an adjusted basis. The company has achieved this target three
quarters before its original timeline

[www.niftyviews.com:31110] Deconstructing Adani-Aswath Damodaran

[Rajiv Handa]

One Giant Bubble, or Many Associated bubbles as Well...worth a re-read
...Saturday, February 4, 2023
Control, Complexity and Politics: Deconstructing the Adani Affair!
The India Rising story hit some turbulence last week, as one of its biggest
corporate success stories, the Adani Group, was hit with a report from
Hindenburg Research, an investing group that specializes in targeting and
shorting companies that it believes have dubious accounting and business
practices. In response, people have fallen into two groups, with the Adani
family and its supporters arguing that the short selling report is a hit
job by a "foreign" entity to bring down not just the company, but also the
country, and others noting that the report just reinforces what has
troubled them about the company's meteoric rise in the last decade. I will
confess that I know very little about the Adani Group, and I have nothing
invested financially or emotionally in the company's fortunes. If you are
looking for advice on whether you should buy or sell Adani shares, based
upon my analysis, you will be disappointed. Instead, I will argue that the
ingredients that led to the Adani stock price meltdown last week, which
include an ambitious family group obsessed with control, a financial market
where trading momentum trumps financial fundamentals and a capital market
(debt and equity) where governments and regulators put their thumbs on the
scale, are embedded in many Indian companies, and represent the weakest
links in the India story.

The Lead In

As noted in the introductory paragraph, I start from a position of
ignorance about the Adani Group, and it thus made sense to fill in that
gap. In doing so, I will undoubtedly bore those of you who have followed
the company closely, and know far more than I do, and I apologize.

The History

The Adani Group, founded by Gautam Adani, started life as a commodity
trading partnership business in Gujarat, and listed on stock markets in
1994, as Adani Exports, with a large chunk of its revenues coming from its
operation of a local port in Mundra, with a subsequent entry into the
edible oil business. The group's investments were regionally concentrated,
but over time, they have expanded into other businesses and across India,
and while I seldom draw on corporate presentations, I will make an
exception and use a slide from Adani's January 2023 pitch to describe their
business mix:


Link to Adani Corporate Presentation
With the exception of Adani Wilmar, a food processing business that has
recently been bolstered by acquisition of leading brands, the rest of the
Adani businesses share some common characteristics. First, they are
infrastructure businesses, requiring large up-front investments and having
long gestation periods, with regulatory and government oversight. Second,
an increasing proportion of the company's investments are related to
energy, in green energy and gas transmission/distribution, but the
company's most significant investments are in logistics, especially in
airports and ports . While each of these businesses is operated by a
stand-alone Adani company, the businesses flow through a holding company,
Adani Enterprises. The percentages of each company that is held by the
Adani family is shown in brackets in the picture, and we will return to
examine the implications later in this section.

The Rise to Market Prominence
The Indian economy, in general, and Indian public markets, in specific,
have always been dominated by family group companies, with many of the
family groups tracing their history back a century or more. Given the
historical roots of the biggest Indian family groups, the Adani Group has
been a recent entrant, not making the top ten list (in terms of either
operating metrics like revenues or market-based numbers like market
capitalization or enterprise value) as recently as ten years ago, and
barely making the top ten list five or six years ago. That has clearly
changed, and at the start of 2023, four Adani companies were in the top
twenty Indian companies, in terms of market capitalization, and the
collective value of the seven publicly traded Adani companies was $220
billion (₹ 17,600 billion), greater than the market capitalization of
Reliance, the Ambani family flagship, and India's largest company. In fact,
for a brief period  at the start of 2023, Gautam Adani was the second
richest man in the world, based upon his holdings in his group's companies:



The surge in market capitalization at the any company, by itself, is not
surprising, especially after a decade where companies (like Tesla and
Facebook) have added (and lost) hundreds of billions in market
capitalization in individual years. The surprise, though, is that this
dramatic boost in market capitalization happened at a family group built
around infrastructure businesses, where investors have to wait for decades
for payoffs, and often not driven to sudden changes in value 

[www.niftyviews.com:31076] DLF@63 Golf Course Extension, Gurgaon-Benchmark price Rs 20,000 psft

[Rajiv Handa]

Pre-launch / pre-booking now open for Group Housing – 63 BY DLF – the first
group housing by DLF after a decade – the last one being The Crest!
Launching in February 2023
It will be the new benchmark in all of Gurugram.
A phenomenal buy for sure not only as a great investment but also as an
asset to keep and pass on to your future generations.
Spread across 25 acres.
5 towers
Petal shaped.
38 stories high
85% green cover
Fully fitted ready to move in apartments.
Unobstructed views
Just one standard size of all apartments: 3900 sq. ft.
2 apartments to a core
Two apartments on the same floor can be combined to make one larger
apartment.
9 feet deep decks
3.4 meters floor to ceiling height
An out of the world arrival experience at the porch
Majestic entrance lobbies
200 sq. ft. air-conditioned lift landing
3 elevators with speeds of 3.5 meters per second that can accommodate 20
persons at a time.
Shuttle elevator till GF
Building constructed as per Zone V
Promenade and convenience stores in the stilt
3 parking bays per apartment
EV charging bays
Luxurious Clubhouse - better than any other existing private residential
community (other than The Camellias).
Green building
Design - better than our previous successful launches
Consultants involved are the best of the best.
70% excavation already done.
Mood boards and sample apartment will be ready in 6 months.
Allottees will jump the queue to get the membership of the prestigious DLF
Golf and Country Club
Approx. 8 crores plus
4-year payment plan - 35% in the 1st year
Allotment will be by lottery.
Lock-in period of 18 months.

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their individual experience and perceptions and to share information
with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members
in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The 
administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to 
express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the 
same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; 
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[www.niftyviews.com:31068] DLF-63, A New Kid on the Block-About Rs 8 crore apiece

[Rajiv Handa]

Pre-launch / pre-booking now open for Group Housing – 63 BY DLF – the first
group housing by DLF after a decade – the last one being The Crest!
Launching in February 2023
It will be the new benchmark in all of Gurugram.
A phenomenal buy for sure not only as a great investment but also as an
asset to keep and pass on to your future generations.
Spread across 25 acres.
5 towers
Petal shaped.
38 stories high
85% green cover
Fully fitted ready to move in apartments.
Unobstructed views
Just one standard size of all apartments: 3900 sq. ft.
2 apartments to a core
Two apartments on the same floor can be combined to make one larger
apartment.
9 feet deep decks
3.4 meters floor to ceiling height
An out of the world arrival experience at the porch
Majestic entrance lobbies
200 sq. ft. air-conditioned lift landing
3 elevators with speeds of 3.5 meters per second that can accommodate 20
persons at a time.
Shuttle elevator till GF
Building constructed as per Zone V
Promenade and convenience stores in the stilt
3 parking bays per apartment
EV charging bays
Luxurious Clubhouse - better than any other existing private residential
community (other than The Camellias).
Green building
Design - better than our previous successful launches
Consultants involved are the best of the best.
70% excavation is already done.
Mood boards and sample apartment will be ready in 6 months.
Allottees will jump the queue to get the membership of the prestigious DLF
Golf and Country Club
Approx. 8 crores plus
4-year payment plan - 35% in the 1st year
Allotment will be by lottery.
Lock-in period of 18 months
Expression of interest can be shared along with a Rs. 10 lakhs cheque
favouring DLF Home Developers Ltd.

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with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members
in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The 
administrator of www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to 
express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the 
same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; 
or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or 
iv. give price target;
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[www.niftyviews.com:31061] Budget FY24-Real Estate To Be Hit Hard With Changes on Deployment of Capital Gains

[Rajiv Handa]

Tax Proposals in thr Finance Minister speech in Budget 2023*
Indirect Taxes
1. Customs duty on goods of textiles, toys, bicycle reduced from 21 to 13%
2. To promote Green Mobility - basic customs duty concession for lithium
ion battery
3. To promote Electronics manufacture- relief on customs duty for camera
lens and lithium battery
4. Television - TV panels customs duty reduced
5. Electric kitchen chimney to reduce inverted duty structure from 7.5 to
15 percent
6. Benefit for ethanol blending program and acid program and
epichlorohydrine
7  Marine Products- to promote exports - shrimps, etc. Duty on shrimpfeed
reduced
8. Basic Customs duty reduced for seeds in manufacture for diamonds
9. Customs duty to increase in silver bars
10. Steel - concessional customs duty on  steel and ferrous products
11. Copper - concessional customs duty on copper
12. Rubber - concessional customs duty on rubber
13. Cigarettes - increased tax

Direct Taxes
1. Common IT form and grievance redressal system
2. MSME - avail benefit of presumptive taxation increased to 44AD to 3
crores
Professionals u/s 44ADA - 75 lakhs
Provided receipt in cash doesn't exceed 5%
3. TDS only on payment for deduction
4.  Co-operatives tax -15%
Higher limit of 2 lakh per member for cash deposit in agricultural banks
Higher limit of Rs. 3 crores on TDS for cooperative societies
5. Startups
To avail startup benefits from 31-03-2023 to 31-03-2024
6. 100 new joint commissioners for appeal
7. S.54 to S.54F capped at 10 crores
8. TDS on Online gaming -
9. TDS 30% to 20% on taxable portion of EPF
10. Extending funds for GIFT and IFSC

Personal Income Tax
1. Rebate for income upto 7 lakhs u/s 87A in the new tax regime

2. New tax regime from
0-3 lakhs nil
3-6 lakhs- 5%
6-9 lakhs 10%
9-12 lakhs 15%
12-15 lakhs  20%
Above 15 lakhs- 30 %

3. Standard deduction for new tax regime for Rs. 15.5 lakhs or more -52,500

4. Reduction of highest surcharge from 37% to 25% on new income tax regime

5. Limit on tax exemption for leave encashment is increased from 3,00,000
to 25,00,000

6. New income tax regime default regime.

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same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; 
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[www.niftyviews.com:31036] Adani-Elara, KP+Cronies-Hindenburg (After 24 years again....https://twitter.com/HindenburgRes/status/1618077612680818688?s=20)

[Rajiv Handa]

Adani-The Most Interesting Portion of the Exercise

Conclusion: Growth With Transparency
A system is broken when corporate behemoths like Adani Group seem able run
an intricate fraud in broad daylight and when ordinary citizens are
terrified to speak out against those who use their power and wealth to
suppress criticism. We hope this report marks the beginning of a change.

Given Gautam Adani’s claims to welcome criticism and embrace transparency,
we hope the Adani Group will be pleased to answer the following 88
questions:

Gautam Adani’s younger brother, Rajesh Adani, was accused by the
Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) of playing a central role in a
diamond trading import/export scheme around 2004-2005. He was subsequently
arrested twice over allegations of customs tax evasion, forging import
documentation and illegal coal imports. Given his history, why was he
subsequently promoted to serve as Managing Director at the Adani Group?
Gautam Adani’s brother-in-law, Samir Vora, was accused by the DRI of being
a ringleader of a diamond trading scam and of repeatedly making false
statements to regulators. Given his history, why was he subsequently
promoted to Executive Director of the critical Adani Australia division?
As part of the DRI investigation into over-invoicing of power imports,
Adani claimed that Vinod Adani was “not at all having any involvement in
any Adani Group of companies”, except as shareholder. Despite this claim, a
pre-IPO prospectus for Adani Power from 2009 detailed that Vinod was
director of at least 6 Adani Group companies. Were Adani’s original
statements about Vinod, made to regulators, false?
What has been the full extent of Vinod Adani’s role in the Adani Group to
date, including all roles on deals and entities that have transacted with
the Adani Group?
Mauritius-based entities like APMS Investment Fund, Cresta Fund, LTS
Investment Fund, Elara India Opportunities Fund, and Opal Investments
collectively and almost exclusively hold shares in Adani-listed companies,
totaling almost U.S. $8 billion. Given that these entities are key public
shareholders in Adani, what is the original source of funds for their
investments in Adani companies?
Recent right-to-information requests confirm that SEBI is investigating
Adani’s foreign fund stock ownership. Can Adani confirm that this
investigation is ongoing and provide details on the status of that
investigation?
What information has been provided thus far as part of any investigations,
and to which regulators?
Entities associated with Monterosa Investment Holdings collectively own at
least U.S. $4.5 billion in concentrated holdings of Adani Stock.
Monterosa’s CEO served as director in 3 companies alongside fugitive
diamond merchant Jatin Mehta, whose son is married to Vinod Adani’s
daughter. What is the full extent of the relationship between Monterosa,
its funds, and the Adani family?
What is the extent of the Adani Group Companies, and any Vinod Adani
related entities’ dealings with Jatin Mehta?
A once-related party entity of Adani called Gudami International, headed by
close Adani associate Chang Chung-Ling, invested heavily in one of the
Monterosa funds that allocated to Adani Enterprises and Adani Power.
Monterosa entities continue as key Mauritius shareholders in Adani
companies. What is Adani’s explanation for this large, concentrated
investment into Adani listed companies by a related-party entity?
What was the original source of funds for each of the Monterosa funds and
their investments in Adani?
A former trader for Elara, a firm with almost $3 billion in concentrated
holdings of Adani shares, including a fund that is 99% concentrated in
shares of Adani, told us that it is obvious that Adani controls the shares.
He added that the structure of the funds is intentionally designed to
conceal their beneficial ownership. How does Adani respond?
Leaked emails show that the CEO of Elara had dealings with notorious stock
manipulator Dharmesh Doshi, partner of Ketan Parekh, even after Doshi
became a fugitive for his alleged manipulation activity. How does Adani
respond to this relationship, given that Elara is one of the largest
“public” holders of shares of Adani?
What was the original source of funds for the Elara funds and their
investments in Adani?
Adani has worked extensively with international incorporation firm Amicorp,
which has established at least 7 of its promoter entities, at least 17
offshore shells and entities associated with Vinod Adani, and at least 3
Mauritius-based offshore shareholders of Adani stock. Amicorp played a key
role in the 1MDB international fraud scandal, according to the book Billion
Dollar Whale and U.S. legal case files, along with files from the Malaysian
anti-corruption commission. Why has Adani continued to work closely with
Amicorp despite its proximity to a major international fraud and money
laundering scandal?
New Leaina is a Cyprus-based investment firm, which held 

[www.niftyviews.com:31035] Adani FPO-Hindenburg Shorts

[Rajiv Handa]

Adani Group: How The World’s 3rd Richest Man Is Pulling The Largest Con In
Corporate History

   - Today we reveal the findings of our 2-year investigation, presenting
   evidence that the INR 17.8 trillion (U.S. $218 billion) Indian conglomerate
   Adani Group has engaged in a brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud
   scheme over the course of decades.
   - Gautam Adani, Founder and Chairman of the Adani Group, has amassed a
   net worth of roughly $120 billion, adding over $100 billion in the past 3
   years largely through stock price appreciation in the group’s 7 key listed
   companies, which have spiked an average of 819% in that period.
   - Our research involved speaking with dozens of individuals, including
   former senior executives of the Adani Group, reviewing thousands of
   documents, and conducting diligence site visits in almost half a dozen
   countries.
   - Even if you ignore the findings of our investigation and take the
   financials of Adani Group at face value, its 7 key listed companies have
   85% downside purely on a fundamental basis owing to sky-high valuations.
   - Key listed Adani companies have also taken on substantial debt,
   including pledging shares of their inflated stock for loans, putting the
   entire group on precarious financial footing. 5 of 7 key listed companies
   have reported ‘current ratios’ below 1, indicating near-term liquidity
   pressure.
   - The group’s very top ranks and 8 of 22 key leaders are Adani family
   members, a dynamic that places control of the group’s financials and key
   decisions in the hands of a few. A former executive described the Adani
   Group as “a family business.”
   - The Adani Group has previously been the focus of 4 major government
   fraud investigations which have alleged money laundering, theft of taxpayer
   funds and corruption, totaling an estimated U.S. $17 billion. Adani family
   members allegedly cooperated to create offshore shell entities in tax-haven
   jurisdictions like Mauritius, the UAE, and Caribbean Islands, generating
   forged import/export documentation in an apparent effort to generate fake
   or illegitimate turnover and to siphon money from the listed companies.
   - Gautam Adani’s younger brother, Rajesh Adani, was accused by the
   Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) of playing a central role in a
   diamond trading import/export scheme around 2004-2005. The alleged scheme
   involved the use of offshore shell entities to generate artificial
   turnover. Rajesh was arrested at least twice over separate allegations of
   forgery and tax fraud. He was subsequently promoted to serve as Managing
   Director of Adani Group.
   - Gautam Adani’s brother-in-law, Samir Vora, was accused by the DRI of
   being a ringleader of the same diamond trading scam and of repeatedly
   making false statements to regulators. He was subsequently promoted to
   Executive Director of the critical Adani Australia division.
   - Gautam Adani’s elder brother, Vinod Adani, has been described by media
   as “an elusive figure”. He has regularly been found at the center of the
   government’s investigations into Adani for his alleged role in managing a
   network of offshore entities used to facilitate fraud.
   - Our research, which included downloading and cataloguing the entire
   Mauritius corporate registry, has uncovered that Vinod Adani, through
   several close associates, manages a vast labyrinth of offshore shell
   entities.
   - We have identified 38 Mauritius shell entities controlled by Vinod
   Adani or close associates. We have identified entities that are also
   surreptitiously controlled by Vinod Adani in Cyprus, the UAE, Singapore,
   and several Caribbean Islands.
   - Many of the Vinod Adani-associated entities have no obvious signs of
   operations, including no reported employees, no independent addresses or
   phone numbers and no meaningful online presence. Despite this, they have
   collectively moved billions of dollars into Indian Adani publicly listed
   and private entities, often without required disclosure of the related
   party nature of the deals.
   - We have also uncovered rudimentary efforts seemingly designed to mask
   the nature of some of the shell entities. For example, 13 websites were
   created for Vinod Adani-associated entities; many were suspiciously formed
   on the same days, featuring only stock photos, naming no actual employees
   and listing the same set of nonsensical services, such as “consumption
   abroad” and “commercial presence”.
   - The Vinod-Adani shells seem to serve several functions, including (1)
   stock parking / stock manipulation (2) and laundering money through Adani’s
   private companies onto the listed companies’ balance sheets in order to
   maintain the appearance of financial health and solvency.
   - Publicly listed companies in India are subject to rules that require
   all promoter holdings (known as insider holdings in the 

[www.niftyviews.com:31025] YesBank-D22 EPS Rs 0.02

[Rajiv Handa]

FYI

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[www.niftyviews.com:31013] The Theory of Adequate Liquidity-Epsilon Theory

[Rajiv Handa]

There are a lot of ways to steer a story.

If you are a central banker who wants to influence how investors process
current and future monetary policy into risk-taking decisions, you
embrace communications
policy  as your primary
policy tool.

If you are a CEO who wants to train investors to value your stock on a
multiple of a number you periodically pull out of your ass, you go on CNBC
to tell the story every time you announce earnings
.

If you are a journalist who wants to make sure that readers come away from
an article with the Correct Interpretation, you look for ways to present
your opinions as facts
.

If you are a fund manager who wants to keep investors from worrying about
the liquidity of your massive non-traded REIT and BDC franchise, well,
sometimes words just aren’t going to cut it.

If Epsilon Theory is about any one thing, it is about the idea that markets
– the mechanism whereby millions of individuals, institutions and computers
running glorified linear regression models determine the prices of things –
are built on stories. Few of those stories are more fascinating, more
tenuous and more difficult to control than the *Story of* *Adequate*
*Liquidity.*

For most stories, the game for the missionary is about converting the
marginal investor to a belief about what everyone else believes. The more
investors you convince that everyone else is using your Frankenstein’s
calculation of Adjusted EBITDA, the more you control your stock’s narrative.
The more investors you convince that everyone else is starting to think
about your brand-focused, dividend-paying media company as a limitless
streaming colossus of growth ,
the more you control your stock’s narrative.

The *Story of Adequate Liquidity *isn’t like that.

It is not a story that exists and shifts on the margin. Instead, it exists
in two states: it is normal, or it is broken.

There is a state in which everybody knows that everybody else knows a thing
can be freely bought or sold. There is a state in which everybody knows
that everybody else knows that is no longer true. Once the threshold
between these states is crossed, it is *very* hard to tell the old story.
Sometimes impossible.

This is doubly, triply true when you’ve made the decision to distribute
your product through the lucrative wirehouse, independent broker-dealer and
regional RIA channels. There are missionaries there, too, people and teams
whose determination of an investable universe for their advisers, their
list of recommended buys, holds and sells, can flip common knowledge on a
dime.

I should know. I’ve got the scars. I get why Blackstone is going to great
lengths to avoid a similar fate with BREIT.
--

Just under a decade ago in mid-2013, I thought I was hired away from a big
asset owner to help build and grow an outsourced CIO business. It did not
take long to discover that what I was really hired to do was help find my
new employer a way out of what had become a bit of a quagmire: *The
Endowment Fund*.

Created in the early aughts, the Endowment Fund was a first-mover,
category-killing, retail multi-asset fund-of-funds product. Structured as a
non-traded, 1940-act closed-end fund, it allowed the distributor
(affiliates of Salient Partners) and the investment manager (Morgan Creek)
to package an “endowment-like” portfolio of investments in private equity,
private real assets, private credit and hedge fund strategies for sale to
high net worth investors. Like non-traded REITs and other high margin,
exclusive accredited investor products not available through self-directed
brokerage, it was the holy grail for the big retail distribution platforms.
And for several years, it really was a huge success for everyone involved.
The sales team was happy. The investment team was happy. The investment
team’s alma maters

were
happy. The wirehouse financial advisors who put their clients in it were
happy. The clients were happy.

Part of the reason they were happy is because it was performing pretty
well. Part of the reason they were happy is because it was the only game in
town. Part of the reason they were happy is because it was growing. And a
growing fund, when it comes to anything that holds illiquid assets, is a
healthy fund. Until it isn’t.

Performance for the Endowment Fund wasn’t *great* in 2008, but then,
nobody’s performance was great. Compared to most of the bulled up equity
shoved into the average advisor’s model portfolio-driven account, it looked
fine. But like many fund-of-funds, it was the next four years that would
prove to be brutal. No, brutal is the wrong word. Banal. Boring.
Consistently underwhelming, especially to the 

[www.niftyviews.com:30999] Hollow Men-Epsilon Theory

[Rajiv Handa]

Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World
Apocalypse Now (1979)

Kurtz: Did they say why, Willard, why they want to terminate my command?
Willard: I was sent on a classified mission, sir.
Kurtz: It’s no longer classified, is it? Did they tell you?
Willard: They told me that you had gone totally insane, and that your
methods were unsound.
Kurtz: Are my methods unsound?
Willard: I don’t see any method at all, sir.
Kurtz: I expected someone like you. What did you expect? Are you an
assassin?
Willard: I’m a soldier.
Kurtz: You’re neither. You’re an errand boy, sent by grocery clerks, to
collect a bill.

I first saw Apocalypse Now as a college freshman with two roommates, a
couple of years after it had been released, and I can still recall the
dazed pang of shock and exhaustion I felt when we stumbled out of the
theatre. Nobody said anything on the drive back to campus. We were each
lost in our thoughts, trying to process what we had just seen. Our focus
was on Marlon Brando’s Colonel Kurtz, of course, because we were 18-year
old boys and he was a larger than life villain or anti-hero or superman or
… something … we weren’t quite sure what he was, only that we couldn’t
forget him.

When I reflect on the movie today, though, I find myself thinking less
about Kurtz than I do about Martin Sheen’s Captain Willard. Both Kurtz and
Willard were self-aware. They had no illusions about their own actions or
motivations, including the betrayals and murders they carried out. Both
Kurtz and Willard saw through the veneer of the Vietnam War. They had no
illusions regarding the essential hollowness of the entire enterprise, and
they saw clearly the heart of darkness and horrific will that was left when
you stripped away the surface trappings. So what made Willard stick with
the mission? How was Willard able to navigate within a world he knew was
playing him falsely, while Kurtz could not?

Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World (March 30, 2014)

Eight years ago.

Before Trump. Before Covid. Before a hot war with Russia and a cold war
with China. Before Bitcoin became Bitcoin! ™.

It's hard to remember the before-times, right? It's hard to remember how
alienated and disenchanted and hollowed-out we all felt THEN, even before
all of the crap of the past eight years.

Forty years ago, as a teenage boy, I imagined myself as Kurtz, the
anti-hero/superman/supervillain.

Eight years ago, as a 50-year-old man, I downgraded my imagination to
Willard, the good soldier/assassin/errand boy.

Today? LOL. Ego is a powerful drug, and it takes events like those of the
past eight years to draw it out of your system. Today I finally know who I
am in Apocalypse Now, who we ALL are in its narrative arc terms.

I am a villager.

Apocalypse Now villagers
We are all villagers in Kurtz's world, an unnatural, literally insane world
created by proclamation and fiat. Sure, our standard of living may be a
little bit better than in the picture above, but the essential hollowness
is the same. Maybe worse. And now an implacable agent of change - in the
movie it's the assassin Willard but in the real world it's inflation, war,
disease and climate - has arrived to collect the bill that is due.

This is an Old Story.

I don't just mean that Apocalypse Now was taken directly from Heart of
Darkness, Joseph Conrad's 1899 novel. I mean that the story of hubris at a
societal level, where prideful human leaders lift themselves and their
people up to unnatural heights by stealing what is not rightfully theirs,
only to have their society struck down in retribution, is probably the
oldest social narrative arc of them all.

And that is exactly what our Kurtzian leaders have done in the United
States over the past 25 years. In their overweening pride, they have stolen
what is not rightfully theirs to lift themselves and their people up to
unnatural heights. Through monetary and fiscal policies that have pulled
forward future growth and productivity into the present, they have not only
stolen wealth and prosperity from our children and our children's children,
but they have also created a political dynamic that has hollowed-out the
Constitution and its attendant political norms.

We are a husk of ourselves. A wealthy and pampered husk of ourselves, sure,
where I find myself disappointed if the local liquor store has only five
different artisanal mezcals to choose from, but a husk nonetheless.
Sometimes I wonder what the 5th-century Roman equivalent of artisanal
mezcal would have been.

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[www.niftyviews.com:30967] Hitachi Power PE 80X; Any Views?

[Rajiv Handa]

FYI

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express their opinion and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the 
same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; 
or ii. provide research report; or iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or 
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[www.niftyviews.com:30963] UNSP & Tata Consumer 80X-What Are The Views?

[Rajiv Handa]

FYI

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same."ANY member of this forum doesnt prepare or publish any research report; 
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[www.niftyviews.com:30954] MFSL-Tgt Rs 930 (Emkay)

[Rajiv Handa]

*We hosted Max Financial Services' (MAXF) management in Mumbai on Dec 12,
2022, for meetings with DIIs to discuss the company's business performance
and growth trajectory as well as investor concerns. Amrit Singh - CFO (Max
Life and MAXF) and Ankur Gupta from Investor Relations represented the
company. Key highlights: 1) Post completion of acquisition of 5.17% stake
in Max Life from Mitsui Sumitomo (MSI) to MAXF, the company is well on
track to transfer an additional 7% stake in Max Life to Axis Bank group
entities, and thereafter proceed towards streamlining the holding company
structure. 2) Growth in proprietary channels remains strong and channel
growth should accelerate in Axis Bank, from Jan-2023. 3) Owing to the
slower YTDFY23 growth leading to a favorable product mix, FY23 margin
should be better than guided earlier (of logging lower than in FY22). 4)
The promoter remains committed to reducing his pledge and confirms his
intent to hold on to his MAXF ownership.*

■*Transfer of MSI's 5.17% stake in Max Life to MAXF is another step
towards corporate structure simplification: *The completion of transfer of
5.17% stake in Max Life to MAXF from MSI increases MAXF's ownership in Max
Life to 87%. Now, MAXF and Axis Bank should progress towards transfer of
the residual 7% stake in Max Life to Axis Bank group entities, which will
lead to MAXF ownership in Max Life to 80% and Axis Bank Group ownership of
20%. Post this, the company can approach relevant authorities for corporate
structure simplification, eventually leading to listing of Max Life.

■*Proprietary channel growth robust; Axis Bank channel growth to pick
up from Jan-23:* The proprietary channel (agency and direct) has grown ~20%
YoY for Max Life as of YTDFY23. However, the 7-8% YoY decline in the Axis
Bank channel has resulted in Max Life's Retail APE growth clocking at ~0%
YoY till Nov-22. The Axis Bank channel decline is an outcome of the
combination of Bajaj Allianz gaining complete access to Axis Bank from
Oct-21 and muted growth in Axis Bank channel's overall Life New Business
premium in FY23. Management expects the growth to revive in the Axis Bank
channel from Jan-23, once productivity of its recently-deployed manpower in
the Axis Bank channel improves and overall growth of life insurance (which
has been subdued this year, i.e. YTDFY23) returns in Axis Bank. Retail
protection is still not back to pre-pandemic levels, but some green shoots
are visible for the company as well as for the industry.

■*Muted growth has led to profitable product mix, resulting in better
margin than guided earlier:* Management had earlier guided for FY23 VNB
margin to be a tad lower than that in FY22. However, given the negative
growth in the Axis Bank channel, the company has seen the weight of non-par
savings in the overall product mix materially increasing. Hence, FY23 VNB
margin is likely to register higher vs FY22 as well as vs earlier guidance.
In this backdrop, absolute VNB growth in FY22 should be in double digits.

■*Promoter committed to bringing down pledge and stay invested in
MAXF:* Higher
level of Promoter-share pledge in MAXF has been an overhang for MAXF
shares. However, in recent years, the change in pledge of the promoter's
share has been more a function of MAXF share price and not of variation in
underlying loans. Recently, one of the lenders sold ~1.5% of the promoter's
share in MAXF, leading to Promoter ownership coming down to ~13.2%.
However, this sale should have reduced the pledge on the promoter's share.
Additionally, the promoter has publicly clarified that he is committed to
staying invested in MAXF.

■*Proprietary distribution channels and retirement & protection
products form core of growth strategy:* The company will continue
augmenting and expanding its agency channel, to accelerate growth and
profitability. Growth of the agency channel will remain higher than that of
the banca channel in coming years which should lead to gradual increase in
agency-channel share in the distribution mix. On the product front,
retirement (pensions and annuity) and retail protection will be the focus
areas for the company. MAXF's Pension Management Company commenced
operations in FY23.

■*Valued attractively; progress towards structure simplification and
revival of growth should trigger sustained re-rating:* Hurt by the double
whammy of falling growth and deferral in structure simplification,
including the delay and penalty from the regulatory end, MAXF shares have
materially underperformed the broader market and peers. Currently trading
at FY24E P/EV of ~1.6x, Company shares are ascribing very little (implied
~6x FY25 VNB) structural value to such a strong franchise. Once MAXF makes
progress in structure simplification and sees revival in growth, its share
price should witness sustained re-rating, in our view. We reiterate our BUY
rating on the stock, with our TP of Rs930/share.

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[www.niftyviews.com:30949] MS-YesBank; Target Rs 20.50

[Rajiv Handa]

MS: Yes Bank Limited | RoA recovery beyond 1% will be gradual; initiate at
UW

We expect strong RoA improvement to 1% by F25, helped by higher PPoP
margins/lower credit costs as macro improves further. But at 1.6x F24 P/BV,
the stock is pricing this in. Beyond 1% RoA, improvement will be tough and
gradual as we see much higher competitive intensity in this cycle.

Yes Bank – Moving in the right direction post 2020 NPA crisis: Yes Bank has
focused on reducing asset quality challenges by accelerating provisions and
cleaning up its balance sheet (organically as well as via asset sales). We
expect its gross impaired loans to fall to 9% by end-F23 from a peak of 22%
in Mar-20. Further, unlike the previous cycle, the bank has focused on
increasing the share of retail on both sides of the balance sheet. Indeed,
the share of CASA + retail deposits currently amounts to 48% of total
funding (vs. 33% in Mar-20). On assets, retail/SME loans have increased to
66% vs. 44% in Mar-20 (implied CAGR of 23%).

We expect strong cyclical improvement over the next few years: Having
cleaned its balance sheet, we expect Yes Bank's loan growth and margin
profile to improve as the macro recovery gains pace. We expect loan growth
to accelerate to a 20% CAGR in F23-25, vs. 15% in F23 (3% CAGR in F20-22).
This, along with an improving share of retail/SME loans (where we project a
25% CAGR in F23-F25) should help offset rising funding costs and drive
higher margins to 3.2% by F25, vs. 2.6% in F23. Overall, we expect a core
PPoP CAGR of >50% in F23-25, which, coupled with benign credit costs (0.7%
average for F23-25), will drive RoA improvement to 1% by F25, vs. an
estimated 0.4% in F23. Indeed, our estimates are~20%/35% above consensus
for F24/F25.

Valuations, however, at 1.6x F24 book, are already pricing this in, we
believe. More importantly, we see limited improvement beyond 1% RoA given
high competitive intensity in retail deposits as well as assets. As
discussed in our report, India Banks: Retail deposit competition to
intensify, we expect the competitive intensity in retail deposits to touch
a new high in the current cycle. Yes Bank, with a 116% liquidity coverage
ratio (LCR) as of Sept-22, a narrowing deposit spread relative to large
private banks, and a relatively high outflow rate (under LCR), will see
greater challenges like some other mid-sized private banks, we believe.
Further, we expect the competitive intensity on retail assets to build up
as well. This will weigh on loan spread expansion over the medium term.

Initiate at UW at a PT of Rs20.5: Our PT implies 1.3x Dec-24 P/BV, which we
think is fair in the context of 10% F25 RoE. Current valuations at 1.6x F24
book are already pricing in strong earnings over next few years. Much
stronger execution on funding and/or high margin retail assets could lead
us to revisit our thesis.

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[www.niftyviews.com:30938] TARC-Edelweiss Pre-Conference Note

[Rajiv Handa]

*TARC Ltd is an NCR-based real estate developer and a significant landowner
in Delhi and surrounding areas. It has a fully paid for land bank of more
than 550 acres. Of this, around 300 acres fall under the municipal limits
of New Delhi, while the remaining land parcels (~250 acres) are in other
areas of NCR (Gurugram, Manesar, Greater Noida). With a presence of more
than 40 years, TARC has developed over 20mn sqft of area across segments. *

*In the residential segment, the company largely operates in the luxury and
super-luxury space. Healthy pipeline of ongoing and upcoming projects TARC
is one of the largest landowners in Delhi and NCR, with a fully paid for
land bank of more than 550 acres. With a focus on creating higher value by
developing these assets, TARC is planning consistent new launches with
three premium residential projects having an estimated GDV of INR 5,500cr
in FY23E and FY24E. *

*These are TARC Tripundra (launched) – 0.49mn sqft, Sector 63A Gurgaon
(launch due) – 0.65mn sqft and Central West Delhi (launching soon) – 1.49mn
sqft. The TARC Maceo project (1.6mn sq ft in New Gurugram) is complete, and
the remaining units are being handed over with the receipt of OC. Focus on
deleveraging In April 2022, TARC received an investment of INR 1,330cr from
Bain Capital in the form of NCDs and replaced all its existing debt. *

*To improve its debt position and increase its focus on business, TARC is
working on monetising its non-core assets. During FY22, company sold a part
of its warehouse assets to Blackstone Inc. for a consideration of INR
295cr. Another warehousing land parcel was sold to ESR. Furthermore,
various land parcels were acquired by the government and it expects a
significant compensation amount in the near future, with INR 70 crores in
the first tranche in Q2FY23. *

*These proceeds will be focused on primarily paring down debt and executing
projects. Recent financial performance Pre-sales booking for H1FY23 stood
at INR 117cr, and with new projects in pipeline, high accruals will reflect
in the revenue in due course. Revenue and EBITDA were down 74% and 62% YoY
at INR 42cr and INR 23cr, respectively, in Q2FY23, as Q2FY22 includes the
Blackstone deal. EBITDA margin, however, improved from 38.1% in Q2FY22 to
54.9% in Q2FY23. In H1FY23, revenue declined 41% YoY to INR 110cr, while
EBITDA grew 21% YoY to INR 78cr. PAT was up 54% and 725% YoY to INR 8cr and
INR 17cr in Q2FY23 and H1FY23, respectively. *

*Valuation At CMP of INR 41, TARC’s market capitalisation is INR 1,219cr.
Against this, as per the company, it had investment properties worth INR
2,162cr and inventory of INR 1,065cr as of March 2022. Additionally, its
P/BV stood at 0.9x as of March 2022.*

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[www.niftyviews.com:30928] Bajaj Hindusthan-A Regular Account Now

[Rajiv Handa]

FYI

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[www.niftyviews.com:30859] Century Textile-Birla Estates-Anantraj-To Earn Roughly Rs 2400 cr from Sec63A GGN project

[Rajiv Handa]

FYI

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[www.niftyviews.com:30809] Re-Inventing Yes Bank-Forbes

[Rajiv Handa]

The demeanour of Prashant Kumar, the managing director and CEO of Yes Bank,
contradicts what the financial institution has gone through in recent
years–from a near run on deposits in early 2020 which led the Reserve Bank
of India to announce a reconstruction scheme to avert any collapse, to
infusion of fresh capital from leading banks, and a plan for the complete
clean-up of its stubbornly high bad loans.

Kumar is noticeably calm; he shifts to a sofa away from his massive desk at
the side of a vast chamber at the Yes Bank corporate office in Santacruz,
the backdrop view being regular hustle of flights from the Mumbai airport.
His comfort might be coming from the fact that the bank—saddled with weak
asset quality for years now—has planned a resolution for these bad loans
through a transaction with private equity investment firm JC Flowers,
announced on September 20.

Poor OpticsRising bad loans on a company’s balance sheet is always poor
optics. They not only become non-earning assets and reduce the interest
income for the bank, thus impacting return on assets and profitability, but
they also reduce the confidence which stakeholders and potential investors
visualise of the bank.

Related stories

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   the flailing Dhanlaxmi Bank]
   

   This self-styled saviour of co-operative banks wants to buy the flailing
   Dhanlaxmi Bank
   

   - [image: Big banks can withstand severe recession, US Fed stress test
   shows]
   

   Big banks can withstand severe recession, US Fed stress test shows
   

   - [image: How the Parekhs helped build HDFC Bank into India's
   second-largest company]
   

   How the Parekhs helped build HDFC Bank into India's second-largest
   company
   


In the case of Yes Bank, between 2008 and 2015, it had expanded rapidly
nationwide and lent indiscriminately and aggressively to all, including
shadow-lenders and real estate developers. Corporate banking in Q4FY19
formed 65.6 percent of the loan book size. This type of lending had led to
a weakening in asset quality, which became a solvency issue because its
capital buffers were diminished due to the push for persistent high growth.
It was akin speeding without seat belts.

By March 2020, when Kumar took charge of the bank as its CEO, the gross
non-performing assets (GNPAs) for Yes Bank had surged to 16.8 percent as a
portion of its total advances; double that of the level for all banks in
India. “A bank is never seen in the right manner by investors, when its
GNPAs are much higher than those in the industry,” Kumar, the former deputy
managing director at State Bank of India, tells *Forbes India*.

[image: Prashant Kumar: Rewriting the Yes Bank story]As loans and credit
flow worsened in the banking system since 2019, Yes Bank had seen a sharp
39 percent erosion in deposits in nearly 12 months: From Rs227,601 crore in
March 2019 to Rs137,506 crore as of March 5, 2020. The loss of confidence
called for quick action in the form of a cap on deposits, the RBI scheme
for a reconstruction of the board and the infusion of capital from some of
India’s strongest banks.

Kumar and his team have managed to reduce GNPAs to 13.4 percent as of June
30, but it is still a high level to deal with. In the proposed transaction
with JC Flowers, the Rs48,000 crore (which includes Rs15,000 crore of
technical write-offs outside of the balance sheet) of the bad loan pool
will be transferred to an asset reconstruction company (ARC) set up by Yes
Bank and JC Flowers. Once the bad loans are transferred, the bank’s GNPA’s
will fall to 1.5 to 2 percent by March-end 2023.

[image: Prashant Kumar: Rewriting the Yes Bank story]Yes Bank will pick up
19.9 percent stake in the Asset Reconstruction Company (ARC), and JC
Flowers, the balance. Yes Bank’s net carrying weight—the cost of an asset
less depreciated—is Rs8,300 crore. JC Flowers will give 15 percent of the
bidding amount (approximately Rs1,670 crore) to Yes Bank.  Since the net
carrying value is lower than the assignment value, this cash would further
bring down the value of the security receipts, which Yes 

[www.niftyviews.com:30801] INR 85? FX Reserves Plunge

[Rajiv Handa]

The Indian rupee hit a record low on Thursday as the dollar surged on the
Federal Reserve sharply hiking rates and maintaining a stance that is more
hawkish than expected.

The partially convertible rupee fell 0.7% to 80.5625 per dollar as of 0451
GMT, with the dollar index up nearly 1% to a new two-decade high of 111.60.

The Fed's new projections showed rates peaking at 4.6% next year, with no
cuts until 2024. It raised its target interest rate range by another 75
basis points (bps) overnight to 3.00%-3.25% in a bid to tame runaway
inflation.

Asian currencies tumbled, with some hitting record lows while the crucial
Chinese yuan eased further to 7.10 per dollar.

The Fed's aggressiveness would result in the rupee trading on the weaker
side of 80 for the session, analysts pointed out. It's a level the Reserve
Bank of India has proactively defended in the past, per traders.

The Fed's tone was "more on the hawkish side, markets are pricing another
75 bps hike in November," said Dilip Parmar, research analyst at HDFC
Securities.

Meanwhile, the Indian government is not averse to a weaker rupee in line
with global market fundamentals, a senior official told Reuters.

In the short term, rupee may trade weaker but a combination of RBI's
alertness, lower commodity prices and likely equity inflows into Indian
markets could pull the currency back under 80, said Sudarshan
Bhattacharjee, principal economist at online debt platform Yubi.

India's equity markets got $8.5 billion of inflows over the past three
months. "So this slowdown in the U.S. could be positive for India. At this
juncture, India's growth story is fundamentally strong," Bhattacharjee said.

Indian stocks were down 0.6% on the day, posting smaller losses than most
of its peers.

(Reporting by Anushka Trivedi in Mumbai; Editing by Dhanya Ann Thoppil)

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[www.niftyviews.com:30800] India Bank NIMS Getting Squeezed

[Rajiv Handa]

Indian banks may be forced to compete harder to boost deposits amid
tightening liquidity and rising credit demand ahead of the festive season,
analysts warned.

Indian banking system liquidity slipped into deficit for the first time in
nearly 40 months earlier this week, prompting the Reserve Bank of India to
infuse funds into the system.

"We think the real challenge is the gap between deposit growth and loan
growth, as deposit growth is weak, at 9.5% YoY – a good 600 bps below loan
growth," said Suresh Ganapathy, head of financials research at Macquarie.

"Over the next few weeks, as the festive season gathers steam, liquidity
will tighten further. Also, people tend to hold a lot of cash during the
festive season, and that tends to worsen the liquidity situation,"
Ganapathy said.

Bank loans rose 15.5% in the two weeks to Aug. 26 from a year earlier,
while deposits rose 9.5%, RBI data earlier this month showed.

With excess liquidity in the banking system over the last couple of years
on account of the cash infused by the RBI during the pandemic, banks chose
to rely on raising funds from money markets to support the prevailing
demand for credit.

But with credit growth at multi-year highs and the RBI focussing on
draining liquidity to curb inflation, the cheaper funding avenues are
drying up.

India credit growth surges, deposits lag sharply
https://graphics.reuters.com/INDIA-BANKS/DEPOSITS/zjpqkrxeopx/chart.png

"Banks have been laggards in raising deposit rates due to excess liquidity
in the system but lending rates were raised instantaneously," said Rupa
Rege Nitsure, chief economist at L Financial Holdings.

"This has to change and if not, RBI will come down heavily on banks. The
excessive reliance on bulk deposits is bad for overall financial stability
of the economy," she added.

Bankers agree that relying on the debt market to raise funds to support
growth may not be sustainable.

"Borrowing from the market to fund credit growth is just one of the ways
and after a while it isn't sustainable. So we will have to start raising
rates more aggressively in the coming months," said a senior executive at a
state-owned bank.

The average amount of CDs raised by banks in a month rose sharply to 400
billion rupees in first quarter of FY23 compared with 260 billion rupees in
the preceding quarter, according to a report by India Ratings.

Other bankers concurred.

Rates for bulk deposits, or deposits of over 20 million rupees, are rising
more rapidly than retail, highlighting banks' focus on raising more funds
quicker.

State Bank of India's 1 to 2-year retail term deposit rate has gone up by
15 basis points in August to 5.45%, while the bank raised the bulk deposit
rate for the same tenor by 75 bps to 6%.

"Credit growth typically picks up in the second half of the year and with
the festival season and economy picking up we expect a strong demand, so
deposit mobilisation will increase," said another banker.

Analysts believe that as the scramble for deposit intensifies, banks may
feel some impact on their margins in the coming quarters.

The incremental credit deposit ratio has already crossed 100%, suggesting
that banks have started lending more than the total deposits they hold.

Incremental Credit-Deposit Ratio of Indian Banks
https://graphics.reuters.com/INDIA-BANKS/DEPOSITS/egpbkrzmovq/chart.png

"In the next couple of quarters there may be some impact that lenders will
feel on margin as the gap between lending and deposit rate narrows but it
will be a short-term impact as banks will be able to pass on the cost to
the borrowers," said Karthik Srinivasan, analyst at ICRA.

(Reporting by Swati Bhat and Nupur Anand in Mumbai; Editing by Saumyadeb
Chakrabarty)

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[www.niftyviews.com:30799] India OIS Sharpens

[Rajiv Handa]

A part of India's overnight indexed swaps curve, a gauge for future policy
rates, may steepen as investors are pricing in a more hawkish-than-expected
central bank stance, BofA Securities said on Friday.

BofA expects the Reserve Bank of India to raise rates by 25-35 basis on
Sept. 30 and reckons the policy rate will reach 6.5% by end-2023, much
later than what some investors are expecting.

The forward OIS curve up to 6 months is pricing in two 60-basis-point rate
hikes over the next two RBI meetings, which would take the policy rate
above 6.5% by December itself.

"Inflation and growth indicators (are) tracking below RBI's projections,
increasing chances of disappointment in the next meeting," the research
house said.

The Indian central bank meets next week, with a slim majority of economists
in a Reuters poll expecting a half-point hike and some others expecting a
smaller 35 basis point rise.

BofA pointed out inflation was evolving in line with the RBI's projections
so far this quarter. And, in its previous policy meeting, the RBI had
retained its growth forecast for the current fiscal year.

The research house recommends entering a 3-month forward non-deliverable
OIS 1-year, 5-year steepener trade.

In support of the trade, BofA highlighted that the 5-year part of the OIS
curve was under-pricing fiscal risks.

"(The) 5-year is pricing-in flat policy rate profile after quick rate
hikes, but a steeper curve would fully reflect the term-premium for fiscal
risks," it said.

(Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Neha Arora and Saumyadeb Chakrabarty)

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[www.niftyviews.com:30798] FIIs Have A Lot To Sell, Dont Ignore Them

[Rajiv Handa]

Stocks fell sharply after the Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it
was raising its benchmark rate by three-quarters of a percentage point as
it battles inflation, with the S 500 continuing a slide described by
Bespoke Investment Group as its third leg down.

“Where this bear market ultimately bottoms is anyone’s guess, and events
outside of the Fed’s control will likely play a role in where the market
finally ends up,” Bespoke said in a note emailed Wednesday. “In times like
this, though, it’s always nice to look at how the current period compares
to other periods, if for no other reason than to see how bad we have it or
how much worse it can get.”

The S 500, which hit a record high on Jan. 3, has sunk 20.5% so far this
year, according to FactSet data. The index dropped 1.7% Wednesday for its
largest drop since Sept. 13, the day inflation data released for August
came in hotter than expected

.

The S 500 is down more than 10% from its August high, its third such leg
down in the current bear market, according to Bespoke, though it’s still
above its June low.

The firm studied past bear markets during the post-World War II period that
began at all-time highs and saw at least three legs down of 10% or more
before the S 500 ultimately bottomed. Those began in January 1973,
November 1980, August 1987, March 2000 and October 2007, according to
Bespoke.

“If there was one consistent pattern within all five of the prior periods
highlighted, it is that in every one, the S 500 made a lower low in its
third leg lower,” Bespoke said. The S 500 is not far above its June low,
“so either the market has further to fall,” or if the index can rally back
to 4,250, “it would offer some faint hope to bulls that the worst of the
declines would be behind us.”
BESPOKE INVESTMENT GROUP

The S 500 on Tuesday closed down 10.4% from its recent high on Aug. 16,
confirming “the index is in the third leg lower of at least 10% during the
current bear market,” the Bespoke note shows.

“After some extreme oversold readings in mid-June, the S 500 rallied
17.5% through mid-August, but the rally failed just shy” of its 200-day
moving average, the firm said. That same month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s
clear message in his Aug. 26 speech

at
the Jackson Hole. Wyo., economic symposium that he would keep fighting
inflation through tighter monetary policy even while causing pain to
businesses and households, sparking a selloff in stocks

.

The slump deepened

after
a stronger-than-anticipated reading on August inflation based on the
consumer-price index, with investors questioning whether the S 500 will
retest its June low.
Past bear markets

“The bear market that began in January 1973 and stretched to October 1974
was pretty relentless,” said Bespoke. The third leg lower then was
particularly painful, as the S 500 declined more than 37% in a sell-off
that only accelerated in August of that year after” the resignation of
President Richard Nixon.
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The bear market of 1980-’82 was notable for “the fact that the rally in the
year after more than erased all of the previous declines,” the note shows.
BESPOKE INVESTMENT GROUP

The 1987 bear market was as deep, but quick, spanning less than five
months, Bespoke said. “This bear market was also unique in that it is the
only one with at least three legs lower where each 10%+ decline didn’t
result in a lower low.”
BESPOKE INVESTMENT GROUP

“Outside of the COVID crash, bear markets of the 21st century have been
more drawn out,” according to the note.

>From the peak in March 2000 through the October 2002 low, Bespoke tallied
five separate legs that were at least 10% lower before the S 500 finally
bottomed. “Most of them were severe,” according to the firm’s research.
BESPOKE INVESTMENT GROUP

More recently, “the bear market that began in 2007 included five separate
declines of at least 15%, with three exceeding 25%, 

[www.niftyviews.com:30797] Era of Asset Inflation Is Over

[Rajiv Handa]

What started as a mild stock selloff this month has morphed into a
deepening interest rate-spurred rout that’s wiped out virtually all of the
summer gains in the S 500. Mouth-watering yields on corporate debt
haven’t been enough to entice buyers while investors are increasingly
parking their money in cash, waiting for more central bank-inflicted pain
on the economy -- and a better buying opportunity. At the same time, the
Citrix Systems Inc. debt debacle highlights the tighter climate for
capital-raising for Corporate America, darkening the outlook for indebted
companies in the stock market.

All this comes at a bad time for companies facing shrinking profit margins.
Stock valuations, while below multiyear highs, may have further to fall
after the S 500 doubled from the pandemic bottom. And even with nominal
Treasury yields at the loftiest levels in over a decade, inflation-adjusted
rates have scope to climb even higher.

Jerome Powell and his Fed colleagues won’t be upset with the sharp drop in
asset prices. They’ve spent the past six months, at first subtly and then
directly, saying that inflation can’t come down until the excesses in
financial markets ease. Since the central bank began tightening in March,
10-year yields have jumped more than 1.5 percentage points, stocks have
plunged 20% and junk-bond spreads are wider by about 90 basis points. More
pain is likely.

“The message from the Fed is that ‘We’re going to keep hiking until
something goes wrong,’” Bespoke Investment Group Global Macro Strategist
George Pearkes said. “The fact that nothing’s broken yet tells us we’re not
done. If the Fed is in that mood, how are markets supposed to bottom?”

With the S 500 falling a third straight day Thursday, following the worst
performance on a Fed day since January 2021, it appears that investors are
finally heeding the central bank’s message: After the era of peak monetary
stimulus, asset-price disinflation is a necessary byproduct of cooling
price pressures in the broader economy.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said as much in late August,
commenting that he was “happy” to see the market’s rout in response to
Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, where Chair Jerome Powell hammered home that
the central bank was committed to stamping out inflation.

Powell repeatedly referenced the labor market at Wednesday’s press
conference, noting that its strength remains “out of balance” as policy
makers seek to get a grip on the hottest inflation in a generation.

After breaking a three-month straight streak of outflows in August, more
than $5 billion has been drained from US equity exchange-traded funds,
Bloomberg data show. Meanwhile, the more speculative corners of the market
are being punished. A Goldman Sachs basket of nonprofitable tech companies
has plunged 12% so far in September, on track for its worst monthly
performance since May.

“If there are more aggressive sellers and less aggressive buyers, that
supply-demand imbalance is going to cause some disinflation in equity
prices for sure,” Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley, said in a
phone call. “And to the extent that that’s what we’re going through now,
it’s similar to demand being diminished for other things.”

All the same, while prices continue to decline across asset classes, there
are no big signs of investor panic like forced liquidations or systemic
stress. Financial conditions -- a cross-asset measure of market stress --
are closer to levels they were leading into the Fed’s kickoff hike in
March. While credit issuance has slowed, investment-grade companies are
still broadly capable of tapping primary markets, albeit at a price.

Against that backdrop, it makes sense to hold out and wait for bigger
bargains with the Fed on a warpath, according to Kim Forrest at Bokeh
Capital Partners.

“The Fed has laid out this strategy for killing inflation and it looks like
it’s going to kill the economy too. And that is why we have a buyers
strike,” Forrest, the firm’s founder and chief investment officer, said in
an interview. “The whole thing is I sat there this morning looking over
things I want to buy and my big question is this: are they going to be
cheaper next month? And the answer is maybe. Maybe.”

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[www.niftyviews.com:30795] India September Retail Inflation Seen @ 7. 4 per cent

[Rajiv Handa]

India's headline retail inflation is expected to rise to a five-month high
of 7.4% in September, with the risk of going higher if the momentum of food
and vegetable prices picks up further in the rest of the month, Deutsche
Bank said.

"Our nowcasting exercise reveals that CPI inflation is tracking around 7.4%
yoy in September vs. 7.0% yoy in August," chief India economist Kaushik Das
said in a note dated Sept. 20.

India's retail inflation has stayed above the Reserve Bank of India's upper
tolerance range of 6% for eight straight months through August.

The foreign bank expects inflation to average at 7% in October-December and
6.4% in January-March, with a full-year average projection of 6.9%, higher
than the RBI's 6.7% estimate.

The RBI's inflation target stands at 4%, with 200 basis points tolerance on
either side.

Deutsche Bank expect core inflation to be 6.1% in September and to average
6% for the current financial year, with risks biased to the upside given
that services-related inflation momentum could gain traction in the coming
months.

(Reporting by Dharamraj Lalit Dhutia; Editing by Savio D'Souza)

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[www.niftyviews.com:30795] A Global Collapse

[Rajiv Handa]

Throughout 2022, Wall Street has repeatedly warned investors that a
recession could be on its way.

>From JPMorgan Chase  CEO Jamie
Dimon

to
former Federal Reserve officials
,
the world’s top economic minds have pointed, practically in unison, to the
storm of headwinds facing the global economy and expressed fears about the
potential for a serious downturn.

In the U.S., consumers are grappling with near 40-year-high inflation
and rising
interest rates
,
all while the world struggles to cope with the war in Ukraine
,
the European energy crisis
,
China’s COVID-zero policies
,
and more.

And even after a more than 21% drop in the S 500 this year, Wall Street’s
best minds still think stocks have further to fall.

“The worst is yet to come,” Carl Icahn, who serves as the chairman of Icahn
Enterprises  and boasts a
net worth of $23 billion, told MarketWatch

at
the Best New Ideas in Money Festival on Wednesday.

Icahn made his name as a corporate raider
 on Wall Street
in the 1980s, buying up unloved companies and aggressively advocating for
change to improve shareholder value by appointing board members, selling
assets, or firing employees.

Even at 86, Icahn remains one of Wall Street’s most respected minds, and
this year he has repeatedly warned the U.S. economy and stock market are in
trouble.

The investor argues the Federal Reserve boosted asset prices to
unsustainable levels amid the pandemic using near-zero interest rates
and quantitative
easing
—a
policy where central banks buy mortgage backed securities and government
bonds in hopes of spurring lending and investment.

“We printed up too much money, and just thought the party would never end,”
he said, adding that with the Fed switching stances and raising rates to
fight inflation, he now believes “the party’s over.”

The hangover from the Fed’s loose monetary policies, according to Icahn, is
sky-high inflation, which rose 8.3% from a year ago in August.

“Inflation is a terrible thing. You can’t cure it,” Icahn said, noting that
rising inflation was one of the key factors that brought down the Roman
Empire.

Rome famously experienced hyperinflation

after
a series of emperors lowered the silver content of their currency, the
denarius. The situation then dramatically deteriorated after Emperor
Diocletian instituted price controls and a new coin called the argenteus,
which was equal in value to 50 denarii.

The result of Roman emperors’ unsustainable policies was an inflation rate
of 15,000% between A.D. 200 and 300, according to estimates by some
historians

.

Icahn said that inflation like this worries him so much that he would have
liked to see the Federal Reserve raise interest rates by a full 1% on
Wednesday, instead of the 75-basis-point hike that Chair Powell announced,
to ensure price increases won’t stick around.

But despite Icahn’s inflation fears, the billionaire investor said he has
managed to outperform his peers by hedging
 his portfolio—a strategy
that uses derivatives to limit market risk and increase profits—during the
market downturn.

Icahn Enterprises' net asset value jumped 30% or $1.5 billion

in
the first six months of 2022.

On Wednesday, Icahn argued that there are still stocks that look appealing
on the market today, but he cautioned investors not to get greedy too soon.

“I think a lot of things are cheap, and they’re going to get cheaper,”
Icahn said, arguing that companies in the oil-refining and fertilizer
businesses should outperform the overall market moving forward.

Wednesday’s warning for investors wasn’t the first from Ichan this year.

The 

[www.niftyviews.com:30761] YesBank-Allotment to Carlyle+Advent This week possible

[Rajiv Handa]

FYI

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[www.niftyviews.com:30760] Anantraj Ties Up With RailTel for Cloud Infra

[Rajiv Handa]

FYI

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AnantrajCloud-RailTel.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document

[www.niftyviews.com:30750] GMR Power-Mkt Cap Rs 2000 crore

[Rajiv Handa]

FYI
 GMRPower-June22PR.pdf

 GMRPower-June22R.pdf

 GMRPower-QIPRs3000CronSeptember1.pdf


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[www.niftyviews.com:30742] Yes Bank

[Rajiv Handa]

*Digital  Bank is number 1 in UPI with 42% market share *

 *Aadhar enabled payment services market share at 18.2% *

 *NEFT mkt share at 14.3% which is number 1 *

 *Every third digital transaction in the country is powered by YES
Bank (supported by YES bank infrastructure) *

 *Recently launched mobility card in Mumbai Merger *


 *Bank would like to look for opportunities inorganically as well
given its strong franchise*

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YesBank-ISec.docx
Description: MS-Word 2007 document

[www.niftyviews.com:30731] YESBANK-Yes To Growth

[Rajiv Handa]

Betting big on re-rating to reduce its cost of funds, this strategy has to
work if YES Bank wants to be back on the map

After nearly two years of gloom and doom, the mood at YES Bank’s corporate
office at Santa Cruz, Mumbai, is happy and vibrant. Increments, salary
hikes and promotions handed out recently are keeping employees motivated.

With the recent round of fund raising coming without much of pushbacks,
cutting corners on valuations, and more importantly, not having to scout
for multiple backups, the employees are convinced that the worst may be
over for the bank.

This conviction is flowing from the top. Prashant Kumar, YES Bank’s MD and
CEO, is gung-ho, and terms the ₹9,000 crore of equity infusion from private
equity giants, Carlyle and Advent, as confidence capital.

What’s assuring is that, unlike the earlier round of fund raising in July
2020, which was forcibly deployed towards remedying the bad loan mess, this
money will propel growth. After all, if the bank’s gross non-performing
assets (NPA) is set to shrink from 13.45 per cent in the June quarter of
FY23 (Q1 FY23) to 2 – 2.5 per cent after the sale of toxic assets to an
asset reconstruction company, the asset quality isn’t going to be the
top-of-mind worrying factor for the bank, thankfully after nearly four
years of struggle.

The bank partnered with JC Flowers ARC for auctioning these assets and has
identified ₹48,000 crore of bad loans. The process is expected to fetch a
little over ₹11,000 crore and may conclude in a month or so.

But will the confidence capital and the ongoing sale of assets to the ARC
suffice to put the bank back on track?

The answer is a resounding yes from Kumar. He has addressed the elephant in
the room — undoubtedly the bad loans. But he needs to make the pachyderm
stand on its legs to move forward. That would mean taking care of four
things — improve the bank’s profitability, its return ratios, loan growth
and bring stability in terms of its human resources.
Net interest margins a laggard

What materially distinguishes a private bank from a government-owned one is
the former’s ability to generate top-quartile profitability. Measured as
net interest margin(NIM), most private banks clocked NIM upwards of 4 per
cent in Q1. Public sector banks have also been fast catching up and operate
at over 3 per cent NIM now, as against, less than 2.5 per cent until FY20.
Comparatively, YES Bank’s NIM at 2.4 per cent in Q1 is a big laggard.
Freeing up the bank’s asset quality after the sale to the ARC may bump up
margins by 30 – 40 basis point, but that’s not enough.

There are two components to profitability — pricing of loans and cost of
liabilities. Kumar is betting on the second to improve the margins through
rating upgrades for the bank. “Capital is one ratio which is very important
not only in terms of how you are being placed in the system, but also how
the rating agencies see you,” Kumar had told *BusinessLine* in an interview
earlier this month.

Terming the capital infusion as a re-rating event, he says that this could
open a lot of business opportunities, largely in the form of bulk deposits,
from large corporates, public sector entities and the government. “They
would otherwise not want to deal with a bank where the rating is weak,” he
emphasizes. The cost of bulk deposits is at least 50 – 60 basis points
lower than the rates offered to retail depositors. Total cost of deposits
stood at 4.8 per cent in Q1, and cost of funds at 5.1 per cent. “Rest of
the banks operate at 4.25 per cent cost of funds. So, this would come down
in 1 – 3 years,” says Kumar, again betting on a re-rating.
A Moody upgrade

Moody’s upgraded its rating in the bank from positive (B2) to stable (Ba3).
Yet, the critical point here is that when most banks operate at AA and
above, the re-rating story needs to play out faster for Kumar to keep up
with the targets.

Assuming a case of NIM improvement by 50 bps in FY23, it still may not lend
support to the overall return profile of the bank.

At 0.4 per cent return on assets in Q1, Suresh Ganapathy of Macquarie
Capital, says, while the return profile may improve over the next few
years, it won’t be without challenges. He expected ROA to increase to 0.8
per cent in FY25 from 0.5 per cent expected in FY23, while the return on
equity is also projected at subdued levels of seven per cent in FY25. “A
double-digit ROE could happen only beyond FY25, and that is too far looking
into the future,” he adds.

Given how private banks have staged a strong comeback after the pandemic,
and are racing past the 1 per cent ROA mark, even if YES Bank ups its game
by FY24, its chances of outdoing the pack seems limited.

If Kumar must prove any of these assumptions wrong, his only bet is on loan
growth, now projected at 14 - 15 per cent in FY23. He aims at beating the
market to deliver growth, “but we will not unnecessarily take any risk just
to play the league table,” he cautions.

After all, the bank cannot afford 

[www.niftyviews.com:30722] TCPL Packaging

[Rajiv Handa]

TCPL Packaging-TCPL Packaging Limited (TCPL) (BSE: 523301, NSE: TCPLPACK),
is one of India’s leading producers of sustainable packaging solutions for
customers across industries. The Company partners with customers to provide
paperboard-based packaging solutions including folding cartons, printed
blanks and outers, litho-lamination, plastic cartons, blister packs, and
shelf-ready packaging. TCPL has also ventured into the flexible packaging
industry, with capability to produce printed cork-tipping paper, laminates,
sleeves, and wrap-around labels.

Headquartered in Mumbai, India, TCPL has a PAN India presence with 8
state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities and marketing

offices in key metro cities. Over the years, the Company has effectively
diversified and broadened its operations to service a

wide range of packaging products, while consistently adding new customers
and increasing its share of business in established

customers and markets“We are pleased to report that we have commenced the
fiscal year 2023 on a strong note despite a challenging macro environment.
On a Y-o-Y basis, our standalone revenues grew by 48.4% to Rs. 335.5 crore
and Cash Profits improved by 105.6% to Rs. 46.9 crore in Q1. While we
continue to witness volatility in raw material prices, we were able to
mitigate the impact & improve our margins.

In a key development, TCPL Innofilms Private Limited, the Company's wholly
owned subsidiary, commenced the commercial production of its Polyethylene
(PE) blown film line. With India's ban on single-use plastics, we are
clearly moving towards eco friendly policies to accelerate the green
transition. We believe TCPL is fully equipped and will proactively drive
the development of this sustainable flexible packaging solution. Overall,
TCPL is well positioned to cater to the growing demand for

sustainable packaging solutions from leading brands and continues to
support efforts towards facilitating a waste-free world.

Our focused strategy of growth through diversification has enabled us to
consistently outperform our underlying industries. We are one of the few
listed Companies in India to have grown almost every year for the past 30
years with a revenue and PAT CAGR of ~20% and ~27% respectively. We remain
committed to sustainably growing the Company in the future, which will help
create value for all our stakeholders.”

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[www.niftyviews.com:30717] Tata Consumer-Sebi Must Intervene and Stop Forced Merger of Tata Coffee

[Rajiv Handa]

Tata Consumer-Mkt Cap Rs 71000 Crore, Annualised PAT Rs 800-900 Crore. They
are trying to merge Tata Coffee at a ridiculous valuation, when the Scheme
should actually be withdrawn. Tata Consumer like Tata Metaliks and Tata
Steel Long Products are more of a disaster than an achievement.

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[www.niftyviews.com:30716] Tata Metaliks+Tata Steel LP-Why Not Withdraw The Merger?

[Rajiv Handa]

The JMDs of Tata Metaliks and Tata Steel LP should answer the public, why
their merger is stuck with the Stock Exchanges for two years. Why not
withdraw the same and file afresh. Just because they belong to the Tata
group they cannot pass disaster of a companies and their mergers on to the
public. Sebi must intervene in Tata Metaliks, Tata Steel LP and Tata
Consumer mergers.

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[www.niftyviews.com:30714] IDFC Limited-Cash In Hand Rs 4500 Crore post AMC disposal, Reverse Merger Into IDFC Bank will Give At Least 1.50 to 2.0 shares for 1

[Rajiv Handa]

*IDFC-A Rs 2 Dividend, and Reverse Merger Into IDFC Bank Principally
Approved
  *

*Reserve Bank of India ("RBI") has, vide its letter No.DOR ..
HOL.No.SUO-75590/16.01.146/2021-22 dated July 20, 2021, clarified that
after the expiry of lock-in period of 5 years, IDFC Limited can exit as the
promoter of IDFC FIRST Bank Limited. *

*The Board of  Directors of the Company, IDFC Financial Holding Company
(IDFC FHCL) and IDFC FIRST Bank Limited at their respective meetings held
on December 30, 2021 have confirmed that they are "in-principle" in favour
of merger of "IDFC" and "IDFC FHCL" with "IDFC FIRST Bank". The merger will
be subject to the approval by the Board of Directors of entities involved,
shareholders, creditors and other necessary regulatory approvals.*

*  The Board of Directors of the Company and IDFC FHCL at their respective
meetings held on April 06, 2022, have inter alia considered binding bids
received in connection with divestment of IDFC Asset Management Company
Limited ('IDFC AMC') along with IDFC AMC Trustee Company Limited ('IDFC AMC
Trustee') and have approved sale of the entire shareholding of IDFC AMC and
IDFC AMC Trustee held by the Company to a consortium comprising of Bandhan
Financial Holding Limited, Lathe Investment Pte. Ltd. (affiliate of GIC),
Tangerine Investments Limited, Infinity Partners (affiliates of
ChrysCapital) ('Proposed Transaction'). The consideration for the Proposed
Transaction is� 4,500 crores on a fully diluted basis and subject to
customary price adjustments at the closure.*

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[www.niftyviews.com:30692] Zomato-Honestly, I dont quite get it

[Rajiv Handa]

Sometimes, we pin our hopes on unlikely things. I remember asking for
something as a kid, and my Mom responding with "Maybe".

"Can we go to the water park?" Maybe. "Can I get a Nintendo for my
birthday?" Maybe.

I was an optimist. So when she said "maybe" I believed my wishes were going
to come true.

US Fed Chairman Jay Powell's "maybe" has set off a big market rally.
Powell in unscripted remarks to the media last week, said

that
by September, the Fed may decide to “slow the pace" of interest rate hikes.

In a bearish market, a tiny spark can set off a rally. Powell's comments on
Wednesday were rocket fuel, and both the US and Indian markets jumped. The
Sensex

rose
5.1% over the past week.

But analysts and commentators are now pushing back, calling the market
rally "wishful thinking". David Lebovitz of JP Morgan labelled it "a bear
market rally". Goldman Sachs analysts agreed, saying that this stocks rally
will quickly fade

.

Citi predicts that another 0.75% hike is in the pipeline in September
for the US. After all, Central Banks are trying to get inflation down, and
US consumer inflation is at a scorching 9.1% (versus 7.1% for
India).  Inflation will have to consistently fall for the Fed and the
RBI to pause interest rate increases.

The MD of Kotak Mahindra Bank, Uday Kotak offered his own prediction during
the Q1 earnings call
:
he
expects more hikes. "We are early in the cycle of interest rate hikes," he
said, "for both India and the US".

Investors should keep in mind - in the current economy, market upswings
cannot be trusted unless they are backed by falling inflation.
--

*Zomato learns the price of not speaking clearly*

When Zomato

announced
the BlinkIt acquisition on June 24, its share price went into freefall,
sinking from Rs. 70 at the time of the announcement to Rs. 54 by the end of
the week.

Commentators piled on with negative analysis. In a viral tweet thread, the
CEO of CapitalMind Deepak Shenoy said

that
the real price tag of the deal was Rs. 7,500 crore.



Now Zomato has pushed back in a clarification

to
the exchange, saying that the Rs 7,500 crore number (4500 + 3000 that
Shenoy calculated above) is incorrect. "The deal value should include only
(what is) paid for the purchase of the proposed acquisition targets and
should not include any estimated future investments."

However, Deepak Shenoy was not talking about "deal value". His point was
about how much the Blinkit acquisition would eventually cost the Zomato
shareholder:



While the argument over the "cost of Blinkit" is ongoing, Zomato is
learning a much needed lesson here: in public markets, transparency
in numbers is key to winning investor trust.
--

*Screener

[www.niftyviews.com:30691] Switching from PayTM to YesBank Is An Idea worth looking at

[Rajiv Handa]

YesBank-Mkt Cap @ Rs 17=Rs 43000 crore, Free Float Rs 22000 Crore; without
20 per cent placement to Carlyle and Advent. PayTm-mkt Cap Rs 49000 Crore,
Float Rs 6900 crore. With SBI 25 per cent Equity of the increased capital
and 20 per cent to Advent and Carlyle, high probability that Mr. Puri may
be brought on board. Another Rs 11000 crore from JC Flowers and Rs 9000
crore from these two investors should improve liquidity immensely. YesBank,
anyday better than PayTM.

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[www.niftyviews.com:30682] Ask What You Can Do

[Rajiv Handa]

*Ask Not What You Got, Ask What You Can Do*

*Today's media and the many followers who make up their audience are
obsessed with what the celebrity star rated fund managers speak on a daily
basis. Quotes of Buffett, Lynch, Druckenmiller and so on are thrown around
as if they are narrating from the gospel. I say they are all wrong. If you
would watch their career profiles over 4 decades or so, you would note
their professional records are as good as the monsoons in Gurgaon. Four
years and not a drop of rain.*

*Buffett did not make it big till he had crossed 50 or 60, no matter what
the press reads out to you. So I hate when people ad nauseum keep quoting
him. Makes me feel sick to the core.I have never been a follower and it
seems I will never be either. There are enough people in life that you meet
who have done really well in life and with a handful of stocks in their
hands. Buffett, his methodology or theology has never cut ice with them.
They have independent thought, are believers and hold their own in the face
of immense adversity.*

*A casual talk last night convinced me that few people read what I write
and give two hoots for what I think. To a very large extent that is
distressing and dis-respectful and makes whatever little effort that I am
making totally redundant and futile. I say, that is fine. The Sun and the
Moon still shine even though the Clouds do come in between sometimes. What
can be seen during the day cannot be seen at night and so on. If people
have better means and their understanding is vastly superior and it works
for them who am i to complain.*

*Great men however, be it MKG or Pandit ji did not spring out of the walls
of their prison. They spent every moment as if it was their last moment,
listening and reading. In early January of 2000, I met a nice and suave
gentleman by the name of Janak Mehta. He owned the brokerage where I
traded, but he was magnanimous, respectful and kind to me always. One
afternoon, we were sitting together and he asked me what I thought of SKF
Bearings. The price was Rs 200. I said, "Sir, I am a devoted fan of MNCs,
and yet I find it expensive". Mr. Mehta smiled and said, "Buy 1000 shares
and hold". Today, in 2022, the stock is worth Rs 4200. Annualised returns
may appear small, but these are core businesses which have survived and
innovated for decades. Add Schaeffler and Timken and you could have had a
house in Delhi's Golf Links by now.*

*Another day, another afternoon. I was sitting with my broker friend Arjun,
and he had on-sharing or just as a friend a greenhorn who had returned from
Australia with a small corpus of funds raised by friends at the University.
I was about 30 and older than everyone, something like a Gandalf to
everyone. Though some did compare me to the evil Sauron. So this boy,
Sanjay sat with me one afternoon and asked what I thought of "whirlpool",
the price was Rs 12. Due to massive acquisitions in the white goods space
their equity had swollen to Rs 150 crore or so. Sanjay would always tell
me, "the name Whirlpool alone should be worth Rs 12. Dont you think so?" he
would quiz. That stock is Rs 1600 today, and it's last MD and CEO now runs
the roughly Rs 100,000 crore Tata Consumer.*

*My minor thought, when you wake up in the morning do not waste your time
reading the newspaper or watching some journo waste 6.5 hours on TV.
Neither should you ever read or forward to the other the Buffett quotes. If
you can, get up, dust-off your Ass and find something worthwhile to do. In
a poor, sad and wretched world there never can be a Recession till there is
a Consumer. Seek him out and you will do well in all your life. Buffett,
apart.*

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[www.niftyviews.com:30678] Real Estate-Good To Be Long Delhi-NCR

[Rajiv Handa]

*Delhi-Real Estate, Seemingly a Very Strong Market

 *


*Godrej South Estate-Okhla

 *

*This is one of my weekend recce's at the various real projects that are
coming up in and around Delhi or as we call them the Delhi-NCR. Godrej
South Estate-Okhla is the first project from the Rs 40,000 crore Godrej
flagship in Delhi and it is being built up as a show piece of their
financial muscle and engineering skills. The second one will be Godrej
Connaught One. GSE is a project being upon a land parcel of 4 acres. Out of
which just 1 acre will be used for Residential and commercial development.
In all there will be 4 towers, 3 are in varying stages of completion with
overall 401 units of 1, 2 and 3 Bedrooms. There is no provision to keep
servants here. The apartment sizes explain the same-the size range bewtween
550 sft carpet area and 1290 sft carpet area. The Super Area has a drawn
down of 35 per cent. The 3 towers on the verge of completion will have
varying heights and are supposed to be all sold. Deliveries will commence
from 2023. Everything is being done on a grand scale, with 3 acres of
infinity pools, green area and walking talking trails, a club, gymnasium,
badminton and basketball courts and common areas to sit and gossip just in
case you do not wish to be stuffed up in the apartment. Except for the
guests there will be no open parking. Every resident will be given a RFID
tag to unlock the boom barriers and move under into the 3 layered parking
lot. 1 bedroom gets one car park and 2 bedroom gets 2 car parks and 2 bed
rooms get 3 car parks. The maintenance charges will be Rs 5 per sft. The
price tag for the Tower 4-a mix use tower, with first 7 floors commercials
and the next 28 Residential. The psft soft launch rate is Rs 30,000 sft
plus IFMS, EDC, GST and other Government taxes. The Delivery is by December
2024. The commercial portion will have no access beyond the 7th floor. Each
tower will have it's own reception, elevator key card, apartment key card,
biometric and thumb recognition locks. The earlier 3 Towers have been sold
as mere shells, but Tower 4 will have the Kitchen and some more additional
facilities. The start of the apartment thus works from Rs 1.75 crore and
ends close to Rs 3.75 crore. There are 5 apartments to a floor, 2 each of 2
and 3 rooms and 1 apartment of 1 room. In all just 28 1bhks. Honestly, I
have never found Godrej locations to be inspiring. Their best is the Golf
Links in Sector 150 Greater Noida, the worst are in Delhi, Gurgaon and
Sohna. But there are enough takers. A new selling proposition is emerging,
a customer has show an EOI by handing over a cheque of Rs 15 lakh on the
basis of which a priority number will be generated. Depending upon priority
you may get the floor or location desired, otherwise this money is
refundable. Looking at the rapid progress of the GSE I have just one
feeling, it is a very strong market. But the value proposition is missing.
550 sft cub holes are acceptable in Bombay, they do not do well in Delhi.*

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[www.niftyviews.com:30675] Steel Strips Wheels Ltd. Q1FY23 Concall Invitation ||

[Rajiv Handa]

*Today, 4PM || Steel Strips Wheels Ltd. Q1FY23 Concall Invitation || SMIFS
Institutional Desk ||* Pre-register here with Diamond Pass Link:
https://bit.ly/3RGv3js

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[www.niftyviews.com:30672] Anantraj-Last Big Seller Govt Singapore is Out, Now Free Run to Rs 200 in a Year

[Rajiv Handa]

*Anant Raj Limited-$*
*Scrip Code : *515055 *Quarter ending :* June 2022

*Statement showing shareholding pattern of the Public shareholder*

Category & Name of the Shareholders No. of shareholder No. of fully paid up
equity shares held Total no. shares held Shareholding % calculated as per
SCRR, 1957 As a % of (A+B+C2) No. of Voting Rights Total as a % of Total
Voting right No. of Shares Underlying Outstanding convertible securities
(including Warrants) Total shareholding , as a % assuming full conversion
of convertible securities ( as a percentage of diluted share capital) No.
of equity shares held in dematerialized form(Not Applicable)
*B1) Institutions* 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
*Alternate Investment Funds* 1 15 1,50,000 0.05 1,50,000 0.05 0.05
1,50,000
*Foreign Portfolio Investors* 31 13715645 1,37,15,645 4.65 1,37,15,645 4.65
1,45,00,000 8.71 1,37,15,645
POLUNIN EMERGING MARKETS SMALL CAP FUND, LLC 1 6252726 62,52,726 2.12
62,52,726 2.12 1.93 62,52,726
*Financial Institutions/ Banks* 2 51000 51,000 0.02 51,000 0.02 0.02 51,000
*Sub Total B1* 34 13916645 1,39,16,645 4.72 1,39,16,645 4.72 1,45,00,000
8.77 1,39,16,645
*B2) Central Government/ State Government(s)/ President of India* 0 0 0.00
0.00 0.00
*B3) Non-Institutions* 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
*Individual share capital upto Rs. 2 Lacs* 53662 32894941 3,28,94,941 11.15
3,28,94,941 11.15 10.15 3,21,56,807
*Individual share capital in excess of Rs. 2 Lacs* 60 24404802 2,44,04,802
8.27 2,44,04,802 8.27 7.53 2,44,04,802
JHUNJHUNWALA RAKESH RADHESHYAM 1 1000 1,00,00,000 3.39 1,00,00,000 3.39
3.09 1,00,00,000
*Any Other (specify)* 2047 31746554 3,17,46,554 10.76 3,17,46,554 10.76 9.80
3,13,52,054
Bodies Corporate 329 19666429 1,96,66,429 6.66 1,96,66,429 6.66 6.07
1,96,59,429
Non-Resident Indian (NRI) 631 7830598 78,30,598 2.65 78,30,598 2.65 2.42
74,43,098
Vijaykumar Patel 1 4257726 42,57,726 1.44 42,57,726 1.44 1.31 42,57,726
Trusts 1 170 170 0.00 170 0.00 0.00 170
Clearing Members 51 160949 1,60,949 0.05 1,60,949 0.05 0.05 1,60,949
HUF 1034 3109406 31,09,406 1.05 31,09,406 1.05 0.96 31,09,406
IEPF 1 979002 9,79,002 0.33 9,79,002 0.33 0.30 9,79,002
*Sub Total B3* 55769 89046297 8,90,46,297 30.18 8,90,46,297 30.18 27.48
8,79,13,663
*B=B1+B2+B3* 55803 102962942 10,29,62,942 34.89 10,29,62,942 34.89
1,45,00,000 36.24 10,18,30,308

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[www.niftyviews.com:30670] Anantraj-Capturing New Frontiers

[Rajiv Handa]

Anantraj-Capturing New Frontiers

  The Company has always worked with focus
on the execution
and delivery, so as to smoothen the process of moving in
by prospective buyers. As a result, “Anant Raj Estate”,
Company’s flagship residential township in Sector 63A,
near Golf Course Extension Road, Gurugram, is witnessing
increase in demand mainly due to shift in thought process
where customers prefer ready to move in flats/floors/villas/
developed plots in well planned societies and integrated
townships. Haryana Government has allowed higher FAR
resulting in extra Floor space in each residential building.
This has made the flats more affordable.
 The Company has fully paid additional land parcels
adjoining to Anant Raj Estate in Sector 63A, Gurugram
Haryana, on which it has applied for two licenses to develop
the residential projects i.e. Deen Dayal Jan Awas Yojna on
20.14 acres of land and Group Housing Project on 5.43
acres of land. The initial approvals for these two projects
has already been received and company is planning to start
monetization of these land parcels in Q1 of the FY-23 for
Deen Dayal Jan Awas Yojna and in Q4 of the FY-23 for
Group Housing Project.
 Govt. of India’s insistence for placing Data of Banks/
Companies/Government offices in Data Centers located in
India has resulted into spurt in demand for Data Centers in
India and this has come as a boon to the Company because
the Company has 5.50 million sq. ft. of ready space in the
buildings already constructed and the available space will
be converted in to Data Centers. These buildings require
enhancing of security cover and installing power back-ups
besides strengthening of the structure to convert the ready
buildings into Data Centers. Initially, the Company has
commenced the development of Phase-1 Hyper-Scale Data
Center at its ready IT building at IMT, Manesar, Gurugram,
Haryana through its wholly owned subsidiary Anant Raj
Cloud Pvt. Ltd.
 The Company’s Wholly Owned Subsidiary, Anant Raj Cloud
Pvt. Ltd., has already received TIA-942 Rated 3 Certificate
from the Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA).
Anant Raj Cloud Pvt. Ltd. will execute the O of the Data
Center. Our Project is third project and the largest in North
India to have this Certificate.
 Affordable housing is another segment of the company
which is a growing market. After successfully completing
and delivering 2,600 affordable units in Neemrana,
Rajasthan (Anant Raj Aashray), under affordable housing   the Company has
commenced its second project “Anant Raj
Aashray II” in Tirupati, Andhra Pradesh for construction &
Development of approx. 2,000 affordable units. The company
is also in process to commence another Housing project in
Sector 36A, Gurugram jointly with Adani Realty.
 The Company also holds prime land in Delhi and these
land parcels are poised for massive expansions due to
recent changes in development norms for residential and
commercial spaces in coming year.
A segment wise operational brief is given below:
a) Residential:
 The Company’s primary focus is on the development
of the Company’s prime integrated residential and
commercial development project viz. Anant Raj Estate
at Sector 63A, in South Gurugram. Total land owned
by the Company is approximately 175 acres in Sector
63A with a development potential of 7 million sq.
ft. The Company has planned to acquire additional
land in Sector 63A, Gurugram, to expand the existing
township in coming times.
 The project is titled as “Anant Raj Estate” and
it comprises construction and development of
luxury Villas, Plots, Residential flats, Independent
floors and a Commercial complex. The Company is
receiving positive response from prospective buyers.
This project alone is expected to add total value
of ` 6,000 crores to the Company’s total revenues
which includes revenues from Joint Venture with
Birla Estates Private Limited. Anant Raj Estate is
one of the ambitious project of the Company, which
has received one of the fastest partial completion
certificates for around 70% of the total area.
The Company recently got approval for development
of another residential colony under Deen Dayal Jan
Awas Yojna (DDJAY) on 20.14 acres of fully paid
& owned land. This new ambitious project will add
more than ` 750 crores of inventory in the form of
residential & commercial plots. These plots are small
in size & affordable for mid segment buyers and are in
great demand. The Company is expecting to monetize
this inventory in next 18 months to 24 months.
 The Company has also got approval for development
of Group Housing project on approx. 5.43 acres of
land at Sector 63A Gurugram, Haryana in addition to
company’s entitlement to get Floor Index Ratio (FAR)
of approx. 1 million sq. ft. on land being part of the
planned roads of Sector 63A, Gurugram. The Group
Housing Project will be having approx. 1.00 million
sq. ft. of saleable area and it is proposed to launchGH Project in Q4
of FY 23. 

[www.niftyviews.com:30663] MAXVIL-How Bad Markets Price Value

[Rajiv Handa]

*MAXVIL-How Bad Markets Price Value Mkt Cap Rs 1500 crore; *

*Land Bank Rs 300 Crore; *

*3 Buildings In New Delhi totally leased out and Rs 200 crore in the 48 per
cent ownership of Max India. *

*Max Estates merger with Maxvil cleared, *

*Max buy Back at Rs 85 cleared. *

*Max India market Cap Rs 400 crore. *

*But Max India owns Anatara Senior Living in Dehradun worth Rs 500 crore at
cost and Max Senior Living High Rise in Sector 150 Greater Noida. *

*Sooner than later, Max India will merge with Maxvil, making a very large
land based construction company. *


*The Rs 100 price tag does not represent the underlying assets.*

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[www.niftyviews.com:30646] Ujjivan SFB

[Rajiv Handa]

Ujjivan SFB-CMP Rs 15; Target Rs 20 Kotak Sec

  We see 42.8% upside in the stock at our Fair
Value of Rs. 20.
Rationale:
• Discussions with the bank’s management indicate that growth appetite is
back.
• We expect stability in the top management team going forward.
• With asset quality stress at manageable level, profitability should
recover soon.
• We upgrade our rating to BUY from ADD (Fair value unchanged at Rs. 20).
• Preference for the holdco over the bank.
Company Update:
 Positives:
• Demand for micro-credit improving driven by a recovery in business cash
flows.
• Not worried about asset quality - recovery in borrower income, healthy
provision.
• Bank has been comfortable in offering higher ticket sizes or individual
loans.
• Leadership for the key business segments is now largely in place.
 Negatives:
• Continue to watch the bank’s progress on accomplishing a reverse merger.
• Do not expect any negative surprises on that front

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[www.niftyviews.com:30646] Tata Coffee

[Rajiv Handa]

T*ata Coffee-Direct Play on Merger With Tata Consumer

*
* --Launched online Coffee Sonnets from it's key estates in Coorg and other
Hill stations down south.
  *
*--Both sugarcane juice washed Robustas and Arabicas being sold and
procured from single locations
   *
*--Three different styles for three different drinkers-Espresso, Mocha and
French Press
*

* -Carefully selected Beans and roast, ground and packaged to consumer
satisfaction.
   *
* -A new Brazilian and Colombian range launched in the Gourmet variety,
under the World Renowned Eight O Clock Brand   *
* --Consumers now shifting to a Barista level style of coffee drinking,
bodes well for Tata Consumer
   *

*-A small Arbitrage Exists on the merger of the two entities in favour of
Tata Coffee*

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[www.niftyviews.com:30644] Goodyear-Cum Dividend Rs 100; RD July 27; AGM August 1, Dividend Before August 15

[Rajiv Handa]

FYI

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[www.niftyviews.com:30642] Cummins-PL

[Rajiv Handa]

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[www.niftyviews.com:30622] FMCG-40X Is Not Justified

[Rajiv Handa]

FMCG-In A Spot of Bother



My thumb rule these days is to check if any of the following
changed overnight

1.Interest Rates Rose or Fell



 2. Inflation


 3. Oil


 4. FII Selling






Wild horses cannot get me to Press F1.  Now coming to FMCG-listen to Sanjiv
Puri's inter-action yesterday. They are reducing pack sizes, a false
appearance that price is the same but product significantly smaller in
quantity; they have been able to take price hikes of 60 per cent of the
input cost increase, Q1 prices are higher than March 2022, Q2 prices will
be higher than Q1 2022. The 40X multiple is simply a spin of the head.
Extend this to ITC. Can they make cigarettes the size of match sticks? They
have the same problems of HUVR, in fmcg, tobacco, cigarettes, paper and in
hotels they are dreading to raise food price. Motilal is stupid in putting
a BUY on ITC. All other hopefuls, interest sensitives and those with
projections but no Revenue visibility for 4 years will see price in single
digits over the rest of 2022-23.

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[www.niftyviews.com:30621] FMCG-Gone

[Rajiv Handa]

"In the next three months, we will find out if we are entering a global
recession or not," Morgan Stanley Asia Chief Jonathan Garner said last
week. He added, "We believe Indian markets are going to go lower".

This is a dangerous time for Indian investors - the recent fall in the
market makes stocks look more tempting. But with both the US Fed and RBI
raising rates, there is more downside to come.

Bear markets tend to outstay their welcome. After the subprime crash of
2008 for example, it took two years for the Nifty to reach its January 2008
levels (chart above).

US indices hit bear market territory on Monday, losing more than 20% from
its January peak. Hot inflation in the US means the Federal Reserve may
become aggressive with upcoming hikes - analysts from Citigroup to
Jefferies and Goldman Sachs say a 0.75% hike in interest rates is possible
on Wednesday.

And India, despite all we say about decoupling, correlates with US market
movement and is battling a host of challenges.

Looking at the positive and negative factors driving the Indian market, the
negatives right now outweigh the positives, and some of the greens below
can turn red quickly. For example while corporate earnings are strong,
rising costs and low demand in the coming months can hit bottomlines across
industries.



Dollar earners have an advantage

Generating alpha in a weak market is a different ball game.  The safer
companies are likely to be those that earn significant export revenue,
benefiting from a strong dollar. So IT companies with significant US market
share, fertilizer companies and export refiners like RIL become more
attractive to investors - once their valuations turn more reasonable. The
companies most in danger are those highly sensitive to rising costs like
consumer staples and discretionary.

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[www.niftyviews.com:30609] A China On The Verge of Close-Down

[Rajiv Handa]

Beijing is hit by a Covid cluster while Shanghai does mass testing and
panic buying. Pandemic controls costs rise while professor warns of new
unemployment surge. And this newsletter author explains why China’s
economic numbers are especially inaccurate this year.

After getting blocked at the beginning of Beijing’s tech crackdown, the Ant
IPO may be back on. It is a sign of a new go easier on tech policy? More
likely, it’s a temporary move in hopes of generating jobs, argues *Bloomberg
Opinion *columnist. And outspoken tech investor talks of the “survivor’s
instinct” of entrepreneurs in Xi’s lockdown China.
Beijing Covid cluster; Shanghai tests

A Covid outbreak at a popular bar has slowed Beijing’s plans to loosen
pandemic restrictions and delayed the reopening of the city’s Universal
Studios theme park, reports

 the *Wall Street Journal’s* Liza Lin.

“A wild night of partying in Beijing has thrown a wrench into the
city’s attempt
to ease Covid-19 restrictions
,
barely days after restaurants and offices had reopened,” writes Lin.

At least 29 residents tested positive as of Friday afternoon, up from just
eight cases a day earlier. All but three of the new cases were tied to
people visiting the popular nightspot Heaven Supermarket Bar in Beijing’s
bar district of Sanlitun. And at least 4,000 people had since been
identified as close contacts.

Universal Beijing Resort wrote on its official WeChat account Friday
evening that it had been contacted by health officials and would cooperate
with Covid-control measures, reports the *Journal*. The theme park
originally closed on May 1 after a flurry of cases were discovered in
China’s capital.

“While both Beijing and Shanghai have lifted many of the restrictions that
had kept residents indoors or factories closed in recent weeks, the specter
of new infections shows how difficult it can be to return to normalcy,”
reports the business paper. “On Thursday, Shanghai, which just came out of
a two-month citywide lockdown, ordered more than half of its 25 million
residents to undergo Covid-19 testing this weekend.”

“All [Shanghai] residents will be placed under *fengbi guanli*, or
“closed-off management,” until all tests are completed, Zhao Dandan, a
deputy director of the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission, said

 Thursday.
[image: Twitter avatar for @lizalinwsj]Liza Lin @lizalinwsj
1/ "Heaven Supermarket Bar." 天堂超市酒吧：Beijing's latest covid cluster revolves
around this bar, and a wild night of partying. Now, officials are
rescinding reopening mandates, including delaying the reopening of
Universal Beijing Resorts. #zerocovid

wsj.com/articles/beiji…

[www.niftyviews.com:30608] A Safe EV Scooter-Not Quite There Yet

[Rajiv Handa]

A Safe EV Scooter By Bill Donahue

At first, it seemed as though nothing could go wrong. Dockless shared
electric scooters began showing up on the streets of the world’s cities in
2017, and the vanguard — techies, baristas, twentysomething daredevils —
hopped on and rode, confident that they were tilting against two looming
threats, urban congestion and climate change. The future of scootering
seemed so bright that the valuation of the largest manufacturer, Bird, went
from $300 million in March, 2018, to $2 billion three months later, an
astronomical leap, even by Silicon Valley standards.

But Bird’s earliest scooters were so flimsy that, in one 2018 study, their
average life span on the streets of Louisville, Kentucky, was just 28.8
days. (Bird disputes the study’s findings pointing to an investor
presentation from 2022 claiming that the “half-life” of its earliest
scooters was three to four months.) Reports of scooter battery fires and
brake failures across scooter brands began hitting the news. In August
2018, Bird’s CEO, Travis VanderZanden, made a highly unusual move, selling
off tens of millions of dollars worth of his company’s stock.

Today, the scooter industry encompasses over 200 brands, but it is still
shadowed by a bad reputation. Scooter-related injuries are so frequent
among riders that several law firms offer websites targeting prospective
e-scooter plaintiffs. Scooter operators are frequently banned from cities —
in January, for instance, Miami kicked out five of the seven companies
operating in the city; Manhattan has banned shared scooters. Paris deputy
mayor David Belliard last year joined numerous other city leaders in
scooter-hate when he proposed “getting rid of them completely.”

Despite all the attention they command, e-scooters are used for only about
one one-thousandth of all trips made in the world’s cities, according to
McKinsey & Co. The global consulting giant has predicted that by 2030,
micromobility — think bikes, mopeds, e-bikes and scooters — will triple in
popularity to sustain a $500 billion industry. Can the scooter grow up and
meet that economic promise?


Superpedestrian scooters weigh in at 60 pounds apiece. Source:
Superpedestrian
A Boston brand is earnestly trying to make it happen, by focusing on
safety. Superpedestrian has put nine years of research into making what’s
been called “the Volvo of scooters.” It recently raised $125 million in
funding to enhance its technology. And by year’s end, in several U.S. and
European cities, including San Diego, Rome and Madrid, thousands of
Superpedestrian scooters will come equipped with a Pedestrian Defense AI
system. This software can instantly stop the vehicle’s engine if the rider
hops up onto a curb, starts slaloming wildly or travels up a one-way
street. Additional gadgetry will alert headquarters if a rider parks more
than 10 centimeters outside a designated area and will self-check 140
components to ascertain if, say, the battery is at risk of igniting or if
the throttle is stuck. No other scooter integrates such a suite of safety
features, according to Augustin Friedel, an independent industry analyst
and mobility expert based in Germany.

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[www.niftyviews.com:30607] LIC is a completely matured business, there is no reason to buy it or hold it: Rajat Sharma

[Rajiv Handa]

LIC is a completely matured business, there is no reason to buy it or hold
it: Rajat Sharma

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view/lic-is-a-completely-matured-business-there-is-no-reason-to-buy-it-or-hold-it-rajat-sharma/articleshow/92158102.cms

Download Economic Times App to stay updated with Business News -
https://etapp.onelink.me/tOvY/135dde21

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[www.niftyviews.com:30605] www.russell-clark.com/p/the-ruble-and-the-yuan-and-new-world

[Rajiv Handa]

https://www.russell-clark.com/p/the-ruble-and-the-yuan-and-new-world

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