September 2004
http://www.dieselnet.com/
US DOE estimates future potential of hybrid and diesel cars
The DOE's Oak Ridge National Laboratory released a report titled
"Future Potential of Hybrid and Diesel Powertrains in the US Light-
Duty Vehicle Market", which forecasts a growth of 4-7% in light-duty
diesel vehicles in the USA by 2012.
"Diesel and hybrid technologies each have the potential to increase
light-duty vehicle fuel economy by a third or more without loss of
performance, yet these technologies have typically been excluded from
technical assessments of fuel economy potential on the grounds that
hybrids are too expensive and diesels cannot meet Tier 2 emissions
standards. Recently, hybrid costs have come down and the few hybrid
makes available are selling well. Diesels have made great strides in
reducing particulate and nitrogen oxide emissions, and are likely
though not certain to meet future standards," concluded the authors
of the report.
The study predicts that by 2008 hybrids could capture 4-7% and
diesels 2-4% of the light-duty market. These shares could increase to
10-15% for hybrids and 4-7% for diesels by 2012. The resulting
impacts on fleet average fuel economy would be about +2% in 2008 and
+4% in 2012.
Authors of the study also noted that if diesels and hybrids were
widely available across vehicle classes, makes, and models, they
could capture 40% or more of the light-duty vehicle market. Current
penetration of diesels amounts to about 0.2% of the US light-duty
vehicle market.
Diesel technology accounts for over 40% of the new vehicle market in
Europe. The increasing diesel market is driven by good performance of
modern diesel engines, superior fuel economy, and--from the
regulatory standpoint--reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The
major obstacle preventing diesels from wider entry into the US market
are the stringent NOx emission limits in the federal Tier 2 and
California LEV II emission standards. For new passenger cars and
light light-duty trucks (LDT), Tier 2 standards phase-in beginning in
2004, with full implementation by 2007. For heavy LDTs and
medium-duty passenger vehicles (MDPV), the Tier 2 standards will be
phased in beginning in 2008, with full compliance in 2009.
The study forecast that diesel engines should be able to meet Tier 2
emission standards. The added cost of emission control systems,
however, would make the cost penalty in diesels comparable to that in
hybrid vehicles.
http://www-cta.ornl.gov/cta/Publications/pdf/ORNL_TM_2004_181_HybridDiesel.pdf
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