[Biofuel] blackout 8-14-2003, some comments

2005-08-03 Thread Kirk McLoren
The Blackout of August 14, 2003
It all started as a normal humid and hot summer day. Before it was over, the entire Northeast including a large portion of Canada was without power. Ironically, In fact, most of the East and Midwest was operating only at about 75 percent of capacity and in past summers, power systems in the region have used much more capacity on hotter days. 
At 4:06 PM EDT the chief engineer on duty at the Albany New York complex, which is an Independent System Operator and the nerve center of the state’s power grid, noticed something wrong. A large amount of power flowing from New York toward Ontario through the transmission lines—underground and overhead cables. That wasn’t so unusual. A power plant must have gone down. But seconds later, something happened that he’d never seen. The 800-megawatt surge reversed course and began hurtling back toward New York, like some giant ectoplasmic monster on a rampage. 
Generators from all over started to shut down to ward off the tremendous surge, which could overload and burn them out. Faster than most humans could respond, power grids across the region began “islanding” themselves, disconnecting automatically from the overloaded system. Generators clicked off in a cascade of shutdowns that darkened New York, Pennsylvania, the Midwest and much of Canada. In seconds, North America had suffered the worst blackout in its history. In about nine seconds, 61,800 megawatts were lost, and at 4:11 EDT 50 million people were abruptly left without power. 
Despite the initial reassuring signals to the public, during an emergency conference call with senior officials, at 5:30 p.m. EDT, the CIA" stated there was the possibility that there might have been some terrorist tampering. Informants and interrogations of terror suspects have led the CIA to believe that Al Qaeda is seeking to target power grids to produce just the widespread chaos witnessed. Last year the FBI concluded that terrorists are eagerly surveying weaknesses in power grids through Internet connections in Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and Pakistan. Even if they had no role in this episode, many worry that this blackout of 2003 provided them with a perfect case study. 
Information Source = http://enigma.elfrad.org/ 

 Computers cannot keep a complex power grid balanced unless the balance points have been set manually in advance. The reason for this is a mathematical problem known as the traveling salesman problem. 
 A computer cannot determine the shortest route of travel for a salesman to visit the largest cities of every state in the U.S. The problem is far too complex for a computer, at this time. Yet, a real salesman, by looking at a map, has no problem determining the optimum route to visit all of the cities. 
 The calculations are overly complex. A complex grid has too many balance points and not enough time for a computer to determine optimum balance. Once balanced, the balance condition can be maintained by computer only if the power fluctuations are minor. If the fluctuations exceed the "balance window", computer rules can be set to protect power nodes if the grid becomes highly unbalanced due to unexpected conditions. These rules involve the isolation of power nodes from unexpectedly high surges. Once the grid has failed, it can only be restored using preset manually determined actions on a node-by-node basis. 
John Mark Kallio 
source=
http://www.tvbn.com/near bottom of page
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Re: [Biofuel] blackout 8-14-2003, some comments

2005-08-03 Thread Joe Street




The power grid is so vulnerable I am amazed it hasn't been hit by
terrorists already. Back in January 1998 we had four days of freezing
rain in eastern Ontario and upstate NY. Only 4 days of freezing rain
and the weight of the ice began to topple the big high tension line
towers. We often get a 'thaw' in the coldest part of the winter and
that year it just resulted in a lot more of the freezing rain. The
shocker was that it took a lot of time to get the lines back up. I
have pictures of piles of cow carcasses where cows died simply because
they couldn't be milked ( yeah factory farming is great eh?) My parents
who live along the St. Lawrence river were without power for 14 days
and it got cold again during that time. After a few days you couldn't
buy a generator anywhere and even if you could the gas pumps are
electricit was chaos. Many who were old or sick did not survive. 
In Canada and I suspect much of the US the really big high tension
lines stretch across large expanses of wilderness. Sure the generating
stations have security now but it would be almost childsplay for a
terrorist to plan an attack that could cripple these pylons during the
winter when we are most dependant on this infrastructure. It is
impossible to guard these towers and the bases can be walked up to at
will. They are generally only surveyed from the air and visited by
repair crews only when there are problems to be dealt with.

Kirk McLoren wrote:

  The Blackout of August 14, 2003
  It all
started as a normal humid and hot summer day. Before it was over, the
entire Northeast including a large portion of Canada was without power.
Ironically, In fact, most of the East and Midwest was operating only
at about 75 percent of capacity and in past summers, power systems in
the region have used much more capacity on hotter days.
  
  At 4:06 PM EDT the
chief engineer on duty at the Albany New York complex, which is an
Independent System Operator and the nerve center of the states power
grid, noticed something wrong. A large amount of power flowing from New
York toward Ontario through the transmission linesunderground and
overhead cables. That wasnt so unusual. A power plant must have gone
down. But seconds later, something happened that hed never seen. The
800-megawatt surge reversed course and began hurtling back toward New
York, like some giant ectoplasmic monster on a rampage.
  
  Generators from
all over started to shut down to ward off the tremendous surge, which
could overload and burn them out. Faster than most humans could
respond, power grids across the region began islanding themselves,
disconnecting automatically from the overloaded system. Generators
clicked off in a cascade of shutdowns that darkened New York,
Pennsylvania, the Midwest and much of Canada. In seconds, North America
had suffered the worst blackout in its history. In about nine seconds,
61,800 megawatts were lost, and at 4:11 EDT 50 million people were
abruptly left without power. 
  Despite the
initial reassuring signals to the public, during an emergency
conference call with senior officials, at 5:30 p.m. EDT, the CIA"
stated there was the possibility that there might have been some
terrorist tampering. Informants and interrogations of terror suspects
have led the CIA to believe that Al Qaeda is seeking to target power
grids to produce just the widespread chaos witnessed. Last year the FBI
concluded that terrorists are eagerly surveying weaknesses in power
grids through Internet connections in Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and
Pakistan. Even if they had no role in this episode, many worry that
this blackout of 2003 provided them with a perfect case study.
  
  Information Source
=
http://enigma.elfrad.org/ 
  
  
Computers cannot keep a complex power grid balanced unless the balance
points have been set manually in advance. The reason for this is a
mathematical problem known as the traveling salesman problem. 
   A
computer cannot determine the shortest route of travel for a salesman
to visit the largest cities of every state in the U.S. The problem is
far too complex for a computer, at this time. Yet, a real salesman, by
looking at a map, has no problem determining the optimum route to visit
all of the cities. 
   The
calculations are overly complex. A complex grid has too many balance
points and not enough time for a computer to determine optimum
balance. Once balanced, the balance condition can be maintained by
computer only if the power fluctuations are minor. If the fluctuations
exceed the "balance window", computer rules can be set to protect power
nodes if the grid becomes highly unbalanced due to unexpected
conditions. These rules involve the isolation of power nodes from
unexpectedly high surges. Once the grid has failed, it can only be
restored using preset manually determined actions on a node-by-node
basis. 
  John Mark
Kallio 
  
  source=
  http://www.tvbn.com/near
bottom of page
  
   
   Start
your day with Yahoo! - make it your home page 
  

Re: [Biofuel] blackout 8-14-2003, some comments

2005-08-03 Thread Brian Rodgers




Hey Joe
First thing I thought
of after reading your story about the power grid being hit by bad guys
is dont
give them any ideas. Then I had another nave thought (maybe inane
would be a
better word), what do these terrorists want from us? Lets find out and
give it
to them! But then I came to my senses and remembered, they want us
dead.
Whoops, maybe we shouldnt give it to them after all. In
the back of my mind I had the notion that
by researching biofuels and perhaps implementing some sort of
alternative fuel
strategy I would be putting my family into a group of people that do
not want
to invade countries for their energy and thus making me somehow better
than the
rest. Hmmm, it was a nice thought but even with a more sustainable
lifestyle we
will not appease fanatics. They will probably want me dead anyway and
the descendants
of these crazy killers will no doubt be
even more angry having lost loved ones. It goes on and on. Is the USA to stay in Iraq
until we can no longer afford
to be there? What happens when these liberators of freedom in Iraq
find that
Iraqi oil fields have peaked? 
Questions
questions.
I am
frightened about the
future we have created for our children.
Brian
Rodgers




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Re: [Biofuel] blackout 8-14-2003, some comments

2005-08-03 Thread Joe Street




Hi Brian;


  
  
  Hey Joe
First thing I thought
of after reading your story about the power grid being hit by bad guys
is dont
give them any ideas. 

Yeah I went through those thoughts myself in October 2001 when all the
radio stations were asking callers to chime in on how we should protect
ourselves. I decided not to call in for that reason but I contacted
one of the local radio announcers and told him I had several thoughts
about our vulnerability but did not want to air them. I thought that it
was good to brainstorm and get ideas in to the authorities but just did
not want to do it in an open forum that way. So he convinced me to
email him some thoughts and he would pass them on to the appropriate
channels. The next day there was a black car parked out on my street
watching my movements for about a week! This pissed me off to no end so
one day I left as usual to walk to work in the morning but then circled
back out of sight and jumped my neighbour's fence, snuck up to the car
via the driver's blind spot and stood there by his door. Imagine his
surprise when he finally noticed me standing there looking over his
shoulder observing his radios and note taking! LMAO. With goons like
these 'protecting' us god help us!

  Then I
had another nave thought (maybe inane
would be a
better word), what do these terrorists want from us? Lets find out and
give it
to them! But then I came to my senses and remembered, they want us
dead.
Whoops, maybe we shouldnt give it to them after all. 

I really don't think so. I think they want to get our attention. I
think they want us to change and force our governments and businesses
to change the way they operate around the world. I think they want
things to be a little more balanced and if they were that way they
wouldn't bother with all this. They wouldn't have a need to. I'm sure
they don't want to be suicidal anymore than any of us would.

  In
the back of my mind I had the notion that
by researching biofuels and perhaps implementing some sort of
alternative fuel
strategy I would be putting my family into a group of people that do
not want
to invade countries for their energy and thus making me somehow better
than the
rest. Hmmm, it was a nice thought but even with a more sustainable
lifestyle we
will not appease fanatics. 

I really shudder when I hear people talk that way. The definition of
fanaticism is really something to ponder. Would you be called a
fanatic if you had to resort to extreme measures to protect your loved
ones from a bully down the street for instance? What if you had no
other recourse? I really detest the methods they employ obviously but
they don't have much in the way of a voice or bargaining chip otherwise
now do they?

  They
will probably want me dead anyway and
the descendants
of these crazy killers will no doubt be
even more angry having lost loved ones. 

You are here on this list but your language indicates that you haven't
given a lot of consideration to the propaganda that you have been fed
and at least in part obviously digested.

  It
goes on and on. Is the USA
to stay in Iraq
until we can no longer afford
to be there? What happens when these liberators of freedom in Iraq
find that
Iraqi oil fields have peaked?

It goes on until it ends. When all the parties involved take
responsibility for thier actions and when everyone has an equal voice
and is given equal consideration at the bargaining table there will be
a chance for peace at least.

   
  Questions
questions.
  I am
frightened about the
future we have created for our children.

Me too man. Me too.

Joe




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Re: [Biofuel] blackout 8-14-2003, some comments

2005-08-03 Thread Ray J
All i have heard, they have said it many times.. that they want us to 
leave them alone to get out of their lands Our way of life 
offends them...

is that so hard??

Ray J


what do these terrorists want from us? Let’s find out and give it to 
them! But then I came to my senses and remembered, they want us dead. 
Whoops, maybe we shouldn’t give it to them after all.





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Re: [Biofuel] blackout 8-14-2003, some comments

2005-08-03 Thread Kirk McLoren
very hard when they have something we want.
Ray J [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
All i have heard, they have said it many times.. that they want us to leave them alone to get out of their lands Our way of life offends them...is that so hard??Ray J what do these terrorists want from us? Let’s find out and give it to  them! But then I came to my senses and remembered, they want us dead.  Whoops, maybe we shouldn’t give it to them after all.___Biofuel mailing listBiofuel@sustainablelists.orghttp://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.orgBiofuel at Journey to Forever:http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.htmlSearch the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages):http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
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Re: [Biofuel] blackout 8-14-2003, some comments

2005-08-03 Thread Appal Energy

 very hard when they have something we want.

Not if you can get rid of the want. That's what a real energy policy 
would accomplish.


None of this is a result of an addiction. It's a matter of choice - 
politically and economically expedient choice. Just that it's turned out 
to also be expediently destructive and deadly.


But do we see the master of the U.S. ship of state altering course to 
keep from going over the falls?


Not on your life. And he never will as long as the lives of others and 
not his is what hangs in the balance.


Damn the human devastation! Full speed ahead!

Fine Christian principles once again at work there, eh?

Todd Swearingen
...
J.C. for President in 2008
...



Kirk McLoren wrote:


very hard when they have something we want.


*/Ray J [EMAIL PROTECTED]/* wrote:

All i have heard, they have said it many times.. that they want us to
leave them alone to get out of their lands Our way of life
offends them...
is that so hard??

Ray J


 what do these terrorists want from us? Let’s find out and give
it to
 them! But then I came to my senses and remembered, they want us
dead.
 Whoops, maybe we shouldn’t give it to them after all.



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Re: [Biofuel] blackout 8-14-2003, some comments

2005-08-03 Thread Michael Redler


The thing about waging war is that the civilians who die, have families who don't forget. It will take at least a generation of healing before a terrorist campaign of our doing is able to subside.

When I say "of our doing", I mean the things our government did and didn't do, to both extend a hand to those with an open mind and take care in preventing the crimes of those with a closed mind.

MikeRay J [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
All i have heard, they have said it many times.. that they want us to leave them alone to get out of their lands Our way of life offends them...is that so hard??Ray J what do these terrorists want from us? Let’s find out and give it to  them! But then I came to my senses and remembered, they want us dead.  Whoops, maybe we shouldn't’t give it to them after all.___Biofuel mailing listBiofuel@sustainablelists.orghttp://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.orgBiofuel at Journey to Forever:http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.htmlSearch the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages):http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/___
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Re: [Biofuel] blackout 8-14-2003, some comments

2005-08-03 Thread r




The people of other countries i.e. non-Western, have a much longer
memory than we do in the West. Think about the Bible, transmitted
through oral tradition from generation to generation for thousands of
years. Here in (civilized) countries, advertisers, bombarding us with
conflicting messages, feed on the confusion, creating short attention
spans, hoping that we remember their products only and not their
competitor's. If oral traditions, in the West, would be able to
resist the onslaught of advertising, it would be a miracle. But maybe,
just maybe, the Internet would be help us to spread and transmit
knowledge and traditions both oral and written, with open file formats
and cheap broadband.

[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

  
  
  The thing about waging war is that the civilians who die, have
families who don't forget. It will take at least a generation of
healing before a terrorist campaign of our doing is able to subside.
  
  When I say "of our doing", I mean the things our government did
and didn't do, to both extend a hand to those with an open mind and
take care in preventing the crimes of those with a closed mind.
  
  Mike
  
  Ray J [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
  All
i have heard, they have said it many times.. that they want us to 
leave them alone to get out of their lands Our way of life 
offends them...
is that so hard??

Ray J


 what do these terrorists want from us? Lets find out and give it
to 
 them! But then I came to my senses and remembered, they want us
dead. 
 Whoops, maybe we shouldn'tt give it to them after all.



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Re: [Biofuel] blackout 8-14-2003, some comments

2005-08-03 Thread r
Bush may be leading us over the cliff, but there is where the buck 
stops, I am certainly not a lemming. I'm getting off the train before 
the crash.


[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:


 very hard when they have something we want.

Not if you can get rid of the want. That's what a real energy policy 
would accomplish.


None of this is a result of an addiction. It's a matter of choice - 
politically and economically expedient choice. Just that it's turned 
out to also be expediently destructive and deadly.


But do we see the master of the U.S. ship of state altering course 
to keep from going over the falls?


Not on your life. And he never will as long as the lives of others and 
not his is what hangs in the balance.


Damn the human devastation! Full speed ahead!

Fine Christian principles once again at work there, eh?

Todd Swearingen
...
J.C. for President in 2008
...



Kirk McLoren wrote:


very hard when they have something we want.


*/Ray J [EMAIL PROTECTED]/* wrote:

All i have heard, they have said it many times.. that they want us to
leave them alone to get out of their lands Our way of life
offends them...
is that so hard??

Ray J


 what do these terrorists want from us? Let’s find out and give
it to
 them! But then I came to my senses and remembered, they want us
dead.
 Whoops, maybe we shouldn’t give it to them after all.



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Re: [Biofuel] blackout 8-14-2003, some comments

2005-08-03 Thread Greg and April



I agree.

The problem is, anyone with two or more 
brain cells, and is willing to do some serious thinking can cause 
problems.

Greg H.


  - Original Message - 
  From: 
  Joe Street 
  To: Biofuel@sustainablelists.org 
  
  Sent: Wednesday, August 03, 2005 
  14:32
  Subject: Re: [Biofuel] blackout 
  8-14-2003, some comments
  Hi Brian;
  
Hey JoeFirst 
thing I thought of after reading your story about the power grid being hit 
by bad guys is don’t give them any ideas. Yeah I went 
  through those thoughts myself in October 2001 when all the radio 
  stations were asking callers to chime in on how we should protect 
  ourselves. I decided not to call in for that reason but I contacted one 
  of the local radio announcers and told him I had several thoughts about our 
  vulnerability but did not want to air them. I thought that it was good to 
  brainstorm and get ideas in to the authorities but just did not want to do it 
  in an open forum that way. So he convinced me to email him some thoughts 
  and he would pass them on to the appropriate channels. The next day 
  there was a black car parked out on my street watching my movements for about 
  a week! This pissed me off to no end so one day I left as usual to walk to 
  work in the morning but then circled back out of sight and jumped my 
  neighbour's fence, snuck up to the car via the driver's blind spot and stood 
  there by his door. Imagine his surprise when he finally noticed me 
  standing there looking over his shoulder observing his radios and note taking! 
  LMAO. With goons like these 'protecting' us god help us!
  
Then I had 
another naïve thought (maybe inane would be a better word), what do these 
terrorists want from us? Let’s find out and give it to them! But then I came 
to my senses and remembered, they want us dead. Whoops, maybe we shouldn’t 
give it to them after all. I really don't think 
  so. I think they want to get our attention. I think they want us 
  to change and force our governments and businesses to change the way they 
  operate around the world. I think they want things to be a little more 
  balanced and if they were that way they wouldn't bother with all this. They 
  wouldn't have a need to. I'm sure they don't want to be suicidal anymore 
  than any of us would.
  
In the back of my mind 
I had the notion that by researching biofuels and perhaps implementing some 
sort of alternative fuel strategy I would be putting my family into a group 
of people that do not want to invade countries for their energy and thus 
making me somehow better than the rest. Hmmm, it was a nice thought but even 
with a more sustainable lifestyle we will not appease fanatics. 
  I really shudder when I hear people talk that 
  way. The definition of fanaticism is really something to ponder. 
  Would you be called a fanatic if you had to resort to extreme measures to 
  protect your loved ones from a bully down the street for instance? What if you 
  had no other recourse? I really detest the methods they employ obviously 
  but they don't have much in the way of a voice or bargaining chip otherwise 
  now do they?
  
They will 
probably want me dead anyway and the descendants of these 
crazy killers will no doubt be even more angry having 
lost loved ones. You are here on this list but your 
  language indicates that you haven't given a lot of consideration to the 
  propaganda that you have been fed and at least in part obviously digested.
  
It goes on and 
on. Is the USA to stay in 
Iraq until we can no longer 
afford to be there? What happens when these liberators of freedom in 
Iraq find that Iraqi oil fields 
have peaked?It goes on until it ends. When all 
  the parties involved take responsibility for thier actions and when everyone 
  has an equal voice and is given equal consideration at the bargaining table 
  there will be a chance for peace at least.
  

Questions 
questions.
I am frightened 
about the future we have created for our children.Me 
  too man. Me too.Joe
  
  

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Re: [Biofuel] blackout 8-14-2003, some comments

2005-08-03 Thread Brian Rodgers




Alrighty Joe 
Very good response.


In
the back of my mind I had the notion that
by researching biofuels and perhaps implementing some sort of
alternative fuel
strategy I would be putting my family into a group of people that do
not want
to invade countries for their energy and thus making me somehow better
than the
rest. Hmmm, it was a nice thought but even with a more sustainable
lifestyle we
will not appease fanatics.

I should learn from the excellent prose in this group and I
may if you bear with me a little while longer. I apologize for that
obvious
attempt to bait readers and yourself. As I mentioned in an earlier
letter I put
out a daily newsletter to friends and family and I go a little
overboard in an
attempt to elicit feedback. This is no excuse, but I promise to be
better next
time. Thanks for setting me straight. 

  They
will probably want me dead anyway and
the descendants
of these crazy killers will no doubt be
even more angry having lost loved ones. 

"You are here on this list but your language indicates that you haven't
given a lot of consideration to the propaganda that you have been fed
and at least in part obviously digested." (Joe)

I have no TV so I get very little propaganda from
the media.
However you are correct in thinking that something has biased me. Being
here and having
all this feedback has given me plenty of food for thought.


This forum reminds me of the conversations friends
and I
have had over the bonfire at our annual campout on the ranch. At the
fire nobody
wants to hear unsupported facts based on what someone heard someone
else say. Every
now and again we all need to be reminded that other peoples opinions
have
merit and if we listen, maybe we can continue to grow.
Thanks again.
Brian Rodgers 



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