[tips] Wason card selection task and the confirmation bias
Dear tipsters I need help with the confirmation bias and how the responses of the majority of students faced with the original Wason Card Selection Task illustrate that bias. The example in the book is: Suppose that each of the cards below has a number on one side and a letter on the other, and someone tells you: “If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the other side.” Which one(s) of the cards would you need to turn over to decide whether the person is lying? E K 4 7 To be clear, I totally understand what the confirmation bias is [tendency to search for and interpret information in ways that supports one’s existing beliefs or expectations] and what the correct answer to the Wason Card Task is, and why [E and 7—modus ponens and modus tollens, respectively]. According to secondary sources [a gen psych and a social psych text], Wason and Johnson-Laird (1972) found the two most comment responses to be turning over both cards E and 4, and turning over just card E. These secondary sources say that these responses [E and 4, and just E] illustrate the confirmation bias without explaining how these responses illustrate the bias. Turning over the card E could result in finding a 4 –an outcome that would confirm the rule, but it could result in finding a 7 if the rule is false. Because this option could potentially confirm or disconfirm the rule I don’t see this choice as a definite confirmation strategy. I can see how choosing 4 would potentially confirm the rule, even though affirming the consequent is not a valid argument. Turning over the 4 and finding an E would confirm the hypothesis. Am I missing something obvious regarding as two how both the E only and E and 4 combination are a clear example of the confirmation bias? Please help. -- Dr. Julie A. Osland, M.A., Ph.D. Assistant Professor of Psychology Wheeling Jesuit University 316 Washington Avenue Wheeling, WV 26003 Office: (304) 243-2329 e-mail: osla...@wju.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: arch...@jab.org. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5n=Tl=tipso=21533 or send a blank email to leave-21533-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
Re: [tips] High self monitor from a political standpoint?
Poor Jeff, you really are spatially challenged. [?] In order to be able to read it correctly, you'd have to be *above* it, as was the pilot in the plane that wrote it. Beth Benoit On Sun, Nov 4, 2012 at 4:33 PM, Jeffry Ricker, Ph.D. jeff.ric...@scottsdalecc.edu wrote: On Nov 4, 2012, at 2:21 PM, Jeffry Ricker, Ph.D. wrote: On Nov 4, 2012, at 1:31 PM, Beth Benoit wrote: My daughter in Cave Creek, Arizona just sent this photo she took of a political oops. (That's her saguaro cactus in her backyard.) Romney is spelled upside down and backwards. I have low spatial abilities, so I've spent the last 15 minutes trying to figure this out. Now, if I was laying on the ground face up, with the top of my head pointed towards the tree, would I have been able to read this? If true, perhaps it was meant to be read by intoxicated Arizonans in the northern parts of the Valley of the Sun. Best, Jeff -- - Jeffry Ricker, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology PSY 101 Website: http://sccpsy101.wordpress.com/ - Scottsdale Community College 9000 E. Chaparral Road Scottsdale, AZ 85256-2626 Office: SB-123 Phone: (480) 423-6213 Fax: (480) 423-6298 --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: beth.ben...@gmail.com. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13105.b9b37cdd198e940b73969ea6ba7aaf72n=Tl=tipso=21482 (It may be necessary to cut and paste the above URL if the line is broken) or send a blank email to leave-21482-13105.b9b37cdd198e940b73969ea6ba7aa...@fsulist.frostburg.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: arch...@jab.org. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5n=Tl=tipso=21534 or send a blank email to leave-21534-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu347.gif
Re: [tips] Wason card selection task and the confirmation bias
Hi I think it is the failure to turn over the 7 that most clearly demonstrates the confirmation bias. Participants are NOT checking an outcome that would render the premise false, namely finding a vowel on the other side of the 7. Their actual choices are a little more complex to interpret, I think. Turning over the E could be done to confirm (find even) or to disconfirm (find odd) the premise. Impossible to know without more information. And turning over the 4 could be evidence of confirmation bias (i.e., checking for the presence of a positive exemplar of the rule). But turning over the 4 would actually be relevant if the premise was interpreted as IF AND ONLY IF, rather than IF. Misinterpreting IF as IF AND ONLY IF leads to some fallacious reasoning, and could be operating here. So, I would probably focus on the not choosing 7 as evidence for the confirmation bias (which might better be called a failure to reject bias?). Take care Jim James M. Clark Professor Chair of Psychology j.cl...@uwinnipeg.ca Room 4L41A 204-786-9757 204-774-4134 Fax Dept of Psychology, U of Winnipeg 515 Portage Ave, Winnipeg, MB R3B 0R4 CANADA Julie Osland osla...@wju.edu 06-Nov-12 10:41 AM Dear tipsters I need help with the confirmation bias and how the responses of the majority of students faced with the original Wason Card Selection Task illustrate that bias. The example in the book is: Suppose that each of the cards below has a number on one side and a letter on the other, and someone tells you: *If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the other side.* Which one(s) of the cards would you need to turn over to decide whether the person is lying? E K 4 7 To be clear, I totally understand what the confirmation bias is [tendency to search for and interpret information in ways that supports one*s existing beliefs or expectations] and what the correct answer to the Wason Card Task is, and why [E and 7*modus ponens and modus tollens, respectively]. According to secondary sources [a gen psych and a social psych text], Wason and Johnson-Laird (1972) found the two most comment responses to be turning over both cards E and 4, and turning over just card E. These secondary sources say that these responses [E and 4, and just E] illustrate the confirmation bias without explaining how these responses illustrate the bias. Turning over the card E could result in finding a 4 *an outcome that would confirm the rule, but it could result in finding a 7 if the rule is false. Because this option could potentially confirm or disconfirm the rule I don*t see this choice as a definite confirmation strategy. I can see how choosing 4 would potentially confirm the rule, even though affirming the consequent is not a valid argument. Turning over the 4 and finding an E would confirm the hypothesis. Am I missing something obvious regarding as two how both the E only and E and 4 combination are a clear example of the confirmation bias? Please help. -- Dr. Julie A. Osland, M.A., Ph.D. Assistant Professor of Psychology Wheeling Jesuit University 316 Washington Avenue Wheeling, WV 26003 Office: (304) 243-2329 e-mail: osla...@wju.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: j.cl...@uwinnipeg.ca. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13251.645f86b5cec4da0a56ffea7a891720c9n=Tl=tipso=21533 or send a blank email to leave-21533-13251.645f86b5cec4da0a56ffea7a89172...@fsulist.frostburg.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: arch...@jab.org. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5n=Tl=tipso=21536 or send a blank email to leave-21536-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.eduattachment: Jim_Clark.vcf
Re: [tips] Wason card selection task and the confirmation bias
It just so happens that the Wason card task was a central part of my own PhD research. The problem here is that your secondary sources do not understand the difference between confirmation and verification. For Wason, the issue was verification. To verify a hypothesis, one must demonstrate definitively that it is true. To confirm it, one must merely present evidence that is consistent with it. Verification requires certainty. Confirmation does not. (There is a whole history about logical-positivism's shift from verfication to confirmation, Popper's countervailing falsificationism, and Wason's position in the history of philosophy of science behind this, that you probably don't want to know about.) In order to *verify* the vowel-even rule, you must pick up the E and the 7. Picking up the E alone might confirm the rule (or falsify it), but it cannot verify it. The 4 is, of course, irrelevant. Verification is only possible in extremely constrained situations, however (i.e., it is not a very realistic model of knowledge-gathering) so, over the decades, verification got softened to confirmation, and the whole confirmation-bias industry got started (around the time of Tversky Kahneman's classic work). Wason and his student, Johnson-Laird, are often read into that history by later textbook writers (and not without some justification, but it is not a simple matter). Hope this helps, Chris --- Christopher D. Green Department of Psychology York University Toronto, ON M3J 1P3 Canada chri...@yorku.ca http://www.yorku.ca/christo/ = On 2012-11-06, at 11:41 AM, Julie Osland wrote: Dear tipsters I need help with the confirmation bias and how the responses of the majority of students faced with the original Wason Card Selection Task illustrate that bias. The example in the book is: Suppose that each of the cards below has a number on one side and a letter on the other, and someone tells you: “If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the other side.” Which one(s) of the cards would you need to turn over to decide whether the person is lying? E K 4 7 To be clear, I totally understand what the confirmation bias is [tendency to search for and interpret information in ways that supports one’s existing beliefs or expectations] and what the correct answer to the Wason Card Task is, and why [E and 7—modus ponens and modus tollens, respectively]. According to secondary sources [a gen psych and a social psych text], Wason and Johnson-Laird (1972) found the two most comment responses to be turning over both cards E and 4, and turning over just card E. These secondary sources say that these responses [E and 4, and just E] illustrate the confirmation bias without explaining how these responses illustrate the bias. Turning over the card E could result in finding a 4 –an outcome that would confirm the rule, but it could result in finding a 7 if the rule is false. Because this option could potentially confirm or disconfirm the rule I don’t see this choice as a definite confirmation strategy. I can see how choosing 4 would potentially confirm the rule, even though affirming the consequent is not a valid argument. Turning over the 4 and finding an E would confirm the hypothesis. Am I missing something obvious regarding as two how both the E only and E and 4 combination are a clear example of the confirmation bias? Please help. -- Dr. Julie A. Osland, M.A., Ph.D. Assistant Professor of Psychology Wheeling Jesuit University 316 Washington Avenue Wheeling, WV 26003 Office: (304) 243-2329 e-mail: osla...@wju.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: chri...@yorku.ca. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=430248.781165b5ef80a3cd2b14721caf62bd92n=Tl=tipso=21533 (It may be necessary to cut and paste the above URL if the line is broken) or send a blank email to leave-21533-430248.781165b5ef80a3cd2b14721caf62b...@fsulist.frostburg.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: arch...@jab.org. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5n=Tl=tipso=21537 or send a blank email to leave-21537-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
[tips] FaceTips
can you identify this international tipster? michael --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: arch...@jab.org. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5n=Tl=tipso=21538 or send a blank email to leave-21538-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.eduattachment: alejandrofranco.jpg
Re: [tips] No one's named Dave like I am
Hey Beth Thanks for the tip! For those interested, I did not check emails this weekend and Beth's email escaped me as I rushed about getting ready for classes yesterday. I didn't realize this happened until Beth I bumped into each other in the hallway. This paper on name uniqueness is also slated to be in the Wall Street Journal weekend edition (the Ideas section?) ... this made my day ... now if only the election results can go the right way too == John W. Kulig, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology Coordinator, University Honors Plymouth State University Plymouth NH 03264 == - Original Message - From: Beth Benoit beth.ben...@gmail.com To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) tips@fsulist.frostburg.edu Sent: Sunday, November 4, 2012 12:12:15 PM Subject: [tips] No one's named Dave like I am Today's Boston Globe f eatures our own John Kulig, who is also my colleague at Plymouth State University: http://bostonglobe.com/ideas/2012/11/03/hello-entirely-unique-name-dave/oDwyfrbnNwwFa8e1AU5JwO/story.html Beth Benoit Granite State College Plymouth State University New Hampshire --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: ku...@mail.plymouth.edu . To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13338.f659d005276678c0696b7f6beda66454n=Tl=tipso=21477 (It may be necessary to cut and paste the above URL if the line is broken) or send a blank email to leave-21477-13338.f659d005276678c0696b7f6beda66...@fsulist.frostburg.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: arch...@jab.org. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5n=Tl=tipso=21540 or send a blank email to leave-21540-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
Re: [tips] No one's named Dave like I am
John: Are you one of those who is priliged to be the first to vote in the little hamlet in NH? I could swear one voter looked like you. Michael - Original Message - From: John Kulig To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) Sent: Tuesday, November 06, 2012 12:34 PM Subject: Re: [tips] No one's named Dave like I am Hey Beth Thanks for the tip! For those interested, I did not check emails this weekend and Beth's email escaped me as I rushed about getting ready for classes yesterday. I didn't realize this happened until Beth I bumped into each other in the hallway. This paper on name uniqueness is also slated to be in the Wall Street Journal weekend edition (the Ideas section?) ... this made my day ... now if only the election results can go the right way too == John W. Kulig, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology Coordinator, University Honors Plymouth State University Plymouth NH 03264 == -- From: Beth Benoit beth.ben...@gmail.com To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) tips@fsulist.frostburg.edu Sent: Sunday, November 4, 2012 12:12:15 PM Subject: [tips] No one's named Dave like I am Today's Boston Globe features our own John Kulig, who is also my colleague at Plymouth State University: http://bostonglobe.com/ideas/2012/11/03/hello-entirely-unique-name-dave/oDwyfrbnNwwFa8e1AU5JwO/story.html Beth Benoit Granite State College Plymouth State University New Hampshire --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: ku...@mail.plymouth.edu. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13338.f659d005276678c0696b7f6beda66454n=Tl=tipso=21477 (It may be necessary to cut and paste the above URL if the line is broken) or send a blank email to leave-21477-13338.f659d005276678c0696b7f6beda66...@fsulist.frostburg.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: msylves...@copper.net. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13424.eb17e1c03643c971ab35c22d86587541n=Tl=tipso=21540 (It may be necessary to cut and paste the above URL if the line is broken) or send a blank email to leave-21540-13424.eb17e1c03643c971ab35c22d86587...@fsulist.frostburg.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: arch...@jab.org. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5n=Tl=tipso=21541 or send a blank email to leave-21541-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
Re: [tips] No one's named Dave like I am
No ... but most NH people, after a few years, start to all look alike :-) == John W. Kulig, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology Coordinator, University Honors Plymouth State University Plymouth NH 03264 == - Original Message - From: michael sylvester msylves...@copper.net To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) tips@fsulist.frostburg.edu Sent: Tuesday, November 6, 2012 3:48:57 PM Subject: Re: [tips] No one's named Dave like I am John: Are you one of those who is priliged to be the first to vote in the little hamlet in NH? I could swear one voter looked like you. Michael - Original Message - From: John Kulig To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) Sent: Tuesday, November 06, 2012 12:34 PM Subject: Re: [tips] No one's named Dave like I am Hey Beth Thanks for the tip! For those interested, I did not check emails this weekend and Beth's email escaped me as I rushed about getting ready for classes yesterday. I didn't realize this happened until Beth I bumped into each other in the hallway. This paper on name uniqueness is also slated to be in the Wall Street Journal weekend edition (the Ideas section?) ... this made my day ... now if only the election results can go the right way too == John W. Kulig, Ph.D. Professor of Psychology Coordinator, University Honors Plymouth State University Plymouth NH 03264 == - Original Message - From: Beth Benoit beth.ben...@gmail.com To: Teaching in the Psychological Sciences (TIPS) tips@fsulist.frostburg.edu Sent: Sunday, November 4, 2012 12:12:15 PM Subject: [tips] No one's named Dave like I am Today's Boston Globe f eatures our own John Kulig, who is also my colleague at Plymouth State University: http://bostonglobe.com/ideas/2012/11/03/hello-entirely-unique-name-dave/oDwyfrbnNwwFa8e1AU5JwO/story.html Beth Benoit Granite State College Plymouth State University New Hampshire --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: ku...@mail.plymouth.edu . To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13338.f659d005276678c0696b7f6beda66454n=Tl=tipso=21477 (It may be necessary to cut and paste the above URL if the line is broken) or send a blank email to leave-21477-13338.f659d005276678c0696b7f6beda66...@fsulist.frostburg.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: msylves...@copper.net . To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13424.eb17e1c03643c971ab35c22d86587541n=Tl=tipso=21540 (It may be necessary to cut and paste the above URL if the line is broken) or send a blank email to leave-21540-13424.eb17e1c03643c971ab35c22d86587...@fsulist.frostburg.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: ku...@mail.plymouth.edu . To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13338.f659d005276678c0696b7f6beda66454n=Tl=tipso=21541 (It may be necessary to cut and paste the above URL if the line is broken) or send a blank email to leave-21541-13338.f659d005276678c0696b7f6beda66...@fsulist.frostburg.edu --- You are currently subscribed to tips as: arch...@jab.org. To unsubscribe click here: http://fsulist.frostburg.edu/u?id=13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df5d5n=Tl=tipso=21542 or send a blank email to leave-21542-13090.68da6e6e5325aa33287ff385b70df...@fsulist.frostburg.edu
