Re: [uknof] 9pm data dip - update
Thanks Greg Have you noticed any other changes since you posted on the 27th? It would also be nice to see how this correlates with home broadband usage too. I think this might make an interesting talk at UKNOF. Regards Denesh > On 27 May 2020, at 08:15, Greg Choules wrote: > > Good morning all. > Now that Ramadan has ended and we have a few days' worth of stats to look at > it does indeed appear that the dip was related. There was one on 23rd > (Saturday) but none since. Throughout this period it was shifting to the > right each day, broadly tracking sunset in the UK. > > Thank you for the discussion this prompted. > > cheers, Greg > From: Gord Slater > Sent: 23 May 2020 16:13 > To: Paul Mansfield > Cc: uknof@lists.uknof.org.uk ; Greg Choules > > Subject: Re: [uknof] 9pm data dip > > Though beware that "it's complicated" :) If you compare data against majority > muslim countries, you'll see some Ramadan effects dragging on a little for > the next month or so. I doubt this will be noticeable in UK data though, > except in certain local geo areas. > > > Eid is broadly equivalent to Christmas in scale, so the festivities and > family celebrations tend to last at least couple or three days. similar to > the western Christian tradition of eating turkey sarnies until leftovers are > used up. The first day is usually the most significant. > After Eid settles down, there are broadly 3 groups of behaviour:- > > > Extra optional religious fasting - this is approximately a week or more of > additional fasting for religious purposes, or replacement fasting for people > who could not fast in Ramadan for travel or temporary health reasons. > > Extra lifestyle fasting - some people (possibly as many as 5 to 10% in some > societies) fast on and off over the following month or two because they enjoy > it but have no significant religious intent. Some do it to provide moral > support for friends or amily who fast for more othodox reasons. > > "back to normal" - where people carry on their normal lives - this is the > majority of the working populace in majority-muslim countries, especially > doing manual labour > > > Also significant when comparing international data is that majority-muslim > countries keep very different business hours during Ramadan, which will show > up in data plots. The data I've seen in the past was more akin to > Spanish-style summer siesta pattens (most govenrment offices and large > public-facing businesses are only open in the mornings during Ramadan, some > are closed all day Fridays) > > Also the normal business "weekend" varies a lot across the muslim world - > some places are closed Thursdays and Fridays, (in West Africa this can vary > from state to state within countries) others close Saturday an Sunday with an > afternoon break on Friday, others close Friday and Saturday, > Companies and governement departments dealing with non-muslim countries may > keep two sets of hours, the "international business" hours and their normal > customer-facing hours > > The cultural concept of time can be very different from the western > perception of opening times. Priorities and approaches to opening times and > appointments are heavily influenced by cultural situation, especially in very > hot countries. > > Personally, I'm betting on the "hey kids get to bed it's getting dark" > theory, combined with Covid-19 lockdown effects. Mainly because - as I'm try > to explain in the shortest possible manner (but failing badly) - comparisons > between UK and majority-muslim countries will be extremely difficult. > As a rough guess I'd say that Pakistan and Bangladesh would be the closest > fit to cultural practices durind Ramadan, but international family > communications UK<>Asia/ISC across the timezones would skew the data > significantly. I also have less data/comms insight there than in MENA, so I'm > not really sure. > > There may however be some close correlation between French ISPs, Dutch and > Belgian ISPs and their Maghrebi ISP counterparts, being largely in the same > timezone, though the UK only has a very small Magrebi diaspora compared to > any of those other 3 countries. Marseilles would be a good geo-area to > compare to Tunisia, Algerian and to a lesser extent, Moroccan data plots for > example, given similar sunrise/sunset times. > > > > > On Sat, 23 May 2020 at 10:54, Paul Mansfield > wrote: > Hopefully Greg can tell us if the bandwidth dips go away now it's the > last day of Ramadan, as that seems to be the popular explanation. > The first day of Ramadan was 23rd April so the dips should have started then. > > > > -- > sent via Gmail web interface, so please excuse my gross neglect of Netiquette > > This e-mail message (including any attachment) is intended only for the > personal use of the recipient(s) named above. This message is confidential > and may be legally privileged. If you are not an
Re: [uknof] 9pm data dip - update
Good morning all. Now that Ramadan has ended and we have a few days' worth of stats to look at it does indeed appear that the dip was related. There was one on 23rd (Saturday) but none since. Throughout this period it was shifting to the right each day, broadly tracking sunset in the UK. Thank you for the discussion this prompted. cheers, Greg From: Gord Slater Sent: 23 May 2020 16:13 To: Paul Mansfield Cc: uknof@lists.uknof.org.uk ; Greg Choules Subject: Re: [uknof] 9pm data dip Though beware that "it's complicated" :) If you compare data against majority muslim countries, you'll see some Ramadan effects dragging on a little for the next month or so. I doubt this will be noticeable in UK data though, except in certain local geo areas. Eid is broadly equivalent to Christmas in scale, so the festivities and family celebrations tend to last at least couple or three days. similar to the western Christian tradition of eating turkey sarnies until leftovers are used up. The first day is usually the most significant. After Eid settles down, there are broadly 3 groups of behaviour:- Extra optional religious fasting - this is approximately a week or more of additional fasting for religious purposes, or replacement fasting for people who could not fast in Ramadan for travel or temporary health reasons. Extra lifestyle fasting - some people (possibly as many as 5 to 10% in some societies) fast on and off over the following month or two because they enjoy it but have no significant religious intent. Some do it to provide moral support for friends or amily who fast for more othodox reasons. "back to normal" - where people carry on their normal lives - this is the majority of the working populace in majority-muslim countries, especially doing manual labour Also significant when comparing international data is that majority-muslim countries keep very different business hours during Ramadan, which will show up in data plots. The data I've seen in the past was more akin to Spanish-style summer siesta pattens (most govenrment offices and large public-facing businesses are only open in the mornings during Ramadan, some are closed all day Fridays) Also the normal business "weekend" varies a lot across the muslim world - some places are closed Thursdays and Fridays, (in West Africa this can vary from state to state within countries) others close Saturday an Sunday with an afternoon break on Friday, others close Friday and Saturday, Companies and governement departments dealing with non-muslim countries may keep two sets of hours, the "international business" hours and their normal customer-facing hours The cultural concept of time can be very different from the western perception of opening times. Priorities and approaches to opening times and appointments are heavily influenced by cultural situation, especially in very hot countries. Personally, I'm betting on the "hey kids get to bed it's getting dark" theory, combined with Covid-19 lockdown effects. Mainly because - as I'm try to explain in the shortest possible manner (but failing badly) - comparisons between UK and majority-muslim countries will be extremely difficult. As a rough guess I'd say that Pakistan and Bangladesh would be the closest fit to cultural practices durind Ramadan, but international family communications UK<>Asia/ISC across the timezones would skew the data significantly. I also have less data/comms insight there than in MENA, so I'm not really sure. There may however be some close correlation between French ISPs, Dutch and Belgian ISPs and their Maghrebi ISP counterparts, being largely in the same timezone, though the UK only has a very small Magrebi diaspora compared to any of those other 3 countries. Marseilles would be a good geo-area to compare to Tunisia, Algerian and to a lesser extent, Moroccan data plots for example, given similar sunrise/sunset times. On Sat, 23 May 2020 at 10:54, Paul Mansfield mailto:paul%2buk...@mansfield.co.uk>> wrote: Hopefully Greg can tell us if the bandwidth dips go away now it's the last day of Ramadan, as that seems to be the popular explanation. The first day of Ramadan was 23rd April so the dips should have started then. -- sent via Gmail web interface, so please excuse my gross neglect of Netiquette This e-mail message (including any attachment) is intended only for the personal use of the recipient(s) named above. This message is confidential and may be legally privileged. If you are not an intended recipient, you may not review, copy or distribute this message. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by e-mail and delete the original message. Any views or opinions expressed in this message are those of the author only. Furthermore, this message (including any attachment) does not create any legally binding
