Re: [Vo]:More on the WuFlu conspiracy theory
I would note that the fatality rate is going to depend on the level of health care available! So if things become overrun, the lethality rate double r more easily. On Sat, Feb 15, 2020 at 3:26 PM Jed Rothwell wrote: > > Terry Blanton wrote: > >> >> Those are quotes, not citations. > > > Quotes from Chinese doctors who are treating people with the flu. That's > authoritative. > > >> >> I was looking for a citation for your comment that "Most appear to be okay >> now." I have seen quotes that the mortality rate is 15.6%. > > > Surely not from authoritative sources? > > A few weeks ago experts in the Times said there was a very broad range of > estimates of mortality, but I think it has narrowed now. It was from 0.1 to > 5%. Not 15.6%. > > https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html >
Re: [Vo]:More on the WuFlu conspiracy theory
COVID might be able to be caught more than once and be worse the second time! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwJ5thwr4C8 Well that brings us the the practical methods of boosting the immune system. I used to get flu's lots, but now very very seldom every get anything and if I do it is more I think "maybe" I have a slight symptom but then it disappears. And it is because I have been doing things that strengthen my immune system, many things over the years, natural things. So one thing is Vitamin D, this is one of if not the main reason people get sick in winter, supplementing with D3 is safe and effective as long as you don't take 50,000 IU for prolonged periods which causes issues with calcium. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_qmjTJ6RLQ Then yes, there is Sodium chlorite, it has not been shown to be terribly problematic on consumption, and it is a disinfectant and most assuredly does kill things, likely this too. Another to avoid infection is "Thieves Oil" which this one minute video covers, it was apparently enough to protect robbers fro the black plague. On Sat, Feb 15, 2020 at 11:53 AM Alain Sepeda wrote: > > I've read other article that let hope less mortality, but it will be huge > because we don't realize millions of people already die every year. > > The ratio of dead over contaminated may be less dramatic , event if the > health care professional are well treated. > 1- The reason is that people maybe be asymptomatic (it is a problem with that > virus which however stays contagious) > 2- with time and propagation (through asymptomatic and slightly sick people) > the virus should lose mortality as seen often > > Nothing is sure but it is considered in many articles... > > Anyway, it is very contagious, and if the usual mortality of flu is expected > 0.1%, the 2.5 million death on the planet is a huge death toll... it may be > worse, not because of mortality only, but because more people are > contaminated than by usual flu... > > It may be few times if not a dozen times more than usual if the mortality is > high as seen for the health care workers... 10 million, 30 million as some > says... > > In France thus can be estimated as many times the usual 1 annual toll... > 5 ? > or much less if people start to behave consistently, washing hand, not going > to work when sick, wearing mask when sick, and even if very sick, we may be > well treated with the experience of the Chinese doctors (there is some > helpful old drugs), or simply treating consistently the bacterial > complication like for flu... (for me as asthmatic it was antibiotic for my > January flu). > > My prediction is that we will nearly all catch it, and probably feel just a > cough... but for few of us it will be serious. > Take care! > > Le ven. 14 févr. 2020 à 22:58, Terry Blanton a écrit : >> >> Those are quotes, not citations. I was looking for a citation for your >> comment that "Most appear to be okay now." I have seen quotes that the >> mortality rate is 15.6%. >> >> On Fri, Feb 14, 2020 at 3:57 PM Jed Rothwell wrote: >>> >>> Terry Blanton wrote: >>> On Fri, Feb 14, 2020 at 3:37 PM Jed Rothwell wrote: ...Most appear to be okay now. Citation? >>> >>> >>> Dr. Peng and other researchers wrote that 40 health care professionals at >>> his hospital had been infected in January, a third of the cases included in >>> a study published last week in the Journal of the American Medical >>> Association. . . . >>> >>> Another doctor had started to show symptoms early last month, before >>> medical professionals knew to take extra precautions, according to the >>> state-run Health Times newspaper. He died this past Monday. >>> >>> >>> . . . and some other articles. >>>
Re: [Vo]:More on the WuFlu conspiracy theory
Terry Blanton wrote: > Those are quotes, not citations. > Quotes from Chinese doctors who are treating people with the flu. That's authoritative. > I was looking for a citation for your comment that "Most appear to be > okay now." I have seen quotes that the mortality rate is 15.6%. > Surely not from authoritative sources? A few weeks ago experts in the Times said there was a very broad range of estimates of mortality, but I think it has narrowed now. It was from 0.1 to 5%. Not 15.6%. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html
Re: [Vo]:More on the WuFlu conspiracy theory
I've read other article that let hope less mortality, but it will be huge because we don't realize millions of people already die every year. The ratio of dead over contaminated may be less dramatic , event if the health care professional are well treated. 1- The reason is that people maybe be asymptomatic (it is a problem with that virus which however stays contagious) 2- with time and propagation (through asymptomatic and slightly sick people) the virus should lose mortality as seen often Nothing is sure but it is considered in many articles... Anyway, it is very contagious, and if the usual mortality of flu is expected 0.1%, the 2.5 million death on the planet is a huge death toll... it may be worse, not because of mortality only, but because more people are contaminated than by usual flu... It may be few times if not a dozen times more than usual if the mortality is high as seen for the health care workers... 10 million, 30 million as some says... In France thus can be estimated as many times the usual 1 annual toll... 5 ? or much less if people start to behave consistently, washing hand, not going to work when sick, wearing mask when sick, and even if very sick, we may be well treated with the experience of the Chinese doctors (there is some helpful old drugs), or simply treating consistently the bacterial complication like for flu... (for me as asthmatic it was antibiotic for my January flu). My prediction is that we will nearly all catch it, and probably feel just a cough... but for few of us it will be serious. Take care! Le ven. 14 févr. 2020 à 22:58, Terry Blanton a écrit : > Those are quotes, not citations. I was looking for a citation for your > comment that "Most appear to be okay now." I have seen quotes that the > mortality rate is 15.6%. > > On Fri, Feb 14, 2020 at 3:57 PM Jed Rothwell > wrote: > >> Terry Blanton wrote: >> >> >>> On Fri, Feb 14, 2020 at 3:37 PM Jed Rothwell >>> wrote: ...Most appear to be okay now. >>> >> >>> Citation? >>> >> >> Dr. Peng and other researchers wrote that 40 health care professionals at >> his hospital had been infected in January, a third of the cases included in >> a study published last week in the Journal of the American Medical >> Association. . . . >> >> Another doctor had started to show symptoms early last month, before >> medical professionals knew to take extra precautions, according to the >> state-run Health Times newspaper. He died this past Monday. >> >> >> . . . and some other articles. >> >>
Re: [Vo]:More on the WuFlu conspiracy theory
Those are quotes, not citations. I was looking for a citation for your comment that "Most appear to be okay now." I have seen quotes that the mortality rate is 15.6%. On Fri, Feb 14, 2020 at 3:57 PM Jed Rothwell wrote: > Terry Blanton wrote: > > >> On Fri, Feb 14, 2020 at 3:37 PM Jed Rothwell >> wrote: ...Most appear to be okay now. >> > >> Citation? >> > > Dr. Peng and other researchers wrote that 40 health care professionals at > his hospital had been infected in January, a third of the cases included in > a study published last week in the Journal of the American Medical > Association. . . . > > Another doctor had started to show symptoms early last month, before > medical professionals knew to take extra precautions, according to the > state-run Health Times newspaper. He died this past Monday. > > > . . . and some other articles. > >
Re: [Vo]:More on the WuFlu conspiracy theory
In reply to Jonathan Berry's message of Sat, 15 Feb 2020 10:31:40 +1300: Hi, [snip] >To have any idea about how the number of infected and dead compare to >the lethality of this Virus we need to know two things. >The mean time it takes someone to die from the virus after it is >recognized they have it... >And when most of those healthcare workers were first recognized to be infected. > >We don't have anything like either of those numbers, but as it stands >if you want to use recovered .vs dead it is about 18% die and 82% >recover, not that that is perfectly accurate either. > >However maybe in the end we can presume that the true rate lies >neither ate 1 or 2% not at 18% but somewhere in the middle. [snip] That would certainly explain the unprecedented measures the Chinese government is taking to control the spread of the virus. IMO however, no measure can be perfectly effective. They may slow the spread, but eventually it will infect everyone. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk local asymmetry = temporary success
Re: [Vo]:More on the WuFlu conspiracy theory
Oh, but there is one thing that might be more useful at estimating the danger this disease represents than any numbers out of China... And that is the fate of those infected outside of china, there is much less chance for hiding those results. But it could take some time before we have a clue what the real risk is from that as that "experiment" is just beginning so to speak. On Sat, Feb 15, 2020 at 10:31 AM Jonathan Berry wrote: > > To have any idea about how the number of infected and dead compare to > the lethality of this Virus we need to know two things. > The mean time it takes someone to die from the virus after it is > recognized they have it... > And when most of those healthcare workers were first recognized to be > infected. > > We don't have anything like either of those numbers, but as it stands > if you want to use recovered .vs dead it is about 18% die and 82% > recover, not that that is perfectly accurate either. > > However maybe in the end we can presume that the true rate lies > neither ate 1 or 2% not at 18% but somewhere in the middle. > And just what that rate is will hugely depend on the health of those infected. > > On Sat, Feb 15, 2020 at 9:57 AM Jed Rothwell wrote: > > > > Terry Blanton wrote: > > > >> > >> On Fri, Feb 14, 2020 at 3:37 PM Jed Rothwell > >> wrote: ...Most appear to be okay now. > >> > >> > >> Citation? > > > > > > Dr. Peng and other researchers wrote that 40 health care professionals at > > his hospital had been infected in January, a third of the cases included in > > a study published last week in the Journal of the American Medical > > Association. . . . > > > > Another doctor had started to show symptoms early last month, before > > medical professionals knew to take extra precautions, according to the > > state-run Health Times newspaper. He died this past Monday. > > > > > > . . . and some other articles. > >
Re: [Vo]:More on the WuFlu conspiracy theory
To have any idea about how the number of infected and dead compare to the lethality of this Virus we need to know two things. The mean time it takes someone to die from the virus after it is recognized they have it... And when most of those healthcare workers were first recognized to be infected. We don't have anything like either of those numbers, but as it stands if you want to use recovered .vs dead it is about 18% die and 82% recover, not that that is perfectly accurate either. However maybe in the end we can presume that the true rate lies neither ate 1 or 2% not at 18% but somewhere in the middle. And just what that rate is will hugely depend on the health of those infected. On Sat, Feb 15, 2020 at 9:57 AM Jed Rothwell wrote: > > Terry Blanton wrote: > >> >> On Fri, Feb 14, 2020 at 3:37 PM Jed Rothwell wrote: >> ...Most appear to be okay now. >> >> >> Citation? > > > Dr. Peng and other researchers wrote that 40 health care professionals at his > hospital had been infected in January, a third of the cases included in a > study published last week in the Journal of the American Medical Association. > . . . > > Another doctor had started to show symptoms early last month, before medical > professionals knew to take extra precautions, according to the state-run > Health Times newspaper. He died this past Monday. > > > . . . and some other articles. >
Re: [Vo]:More on the WuFlu conspiracy theory
Terry Blanton wrote: > On Fri, Feb 14, 2020 at 3:37 PM Jed Rothwell > wrote: ...Most appear to be okay now. > > Citation? > Dr. Peng and other researchers wrote that 40 health care professionals at his hospital had been infected in January, a third of the cases included in a study published last week in the Journal of the American Medical Association. . . . Another doctor had started to show symptoms early last month, before medical professionals knew to take extra precautions, according to the state-run Health Times newspaper. He died this past Monday. . . . and some other articles.
Re: [Vo]:More on the WuFlu conspiracy theory
On Fri, Feb 14, 2020 at 3:37 PM Jed Rothwell wrote: ...Most appear to be okay now. Citation?
Re: [Vo]:More on the WuFlu conspiracy theory
On Fri, Feb 14, 2020 at 1:07 PM Jones Beene wrote: > Info, some of it disturbing, but which looks authoritative - on the Wuhan > situation... which doc keeps getting removed from the web by very skilled > hackers. > > https://archive.is/QIBmE > So, Mr. Beene, if there is a Part I >
Re: [Vo]:More on the WuFlu conspiracy theory
Terry Blanton wrote: > The Chinese government reported that 1,700 health care workers have > contracted the virus, and 6 have died. That is a mortality rate of 0.4%. > > A mortality rate cannot be determined without the number that recover. We > don't know that yet. > Ah, but we probably do know that number for the health care workers. 1,716 are reported ill. Most appear to be okay now. I think most got sick weeks ago when they had not been warned of the danger, because the government was covering up. I expect that number is accurate. More accurate than it would be any other group because: 1. They are right there in the hospital. They will not be overlooked. 2. I expect they get priority treatment from their colleagues. Again, they will not be overlooked or undercounted. 3. There are not many, so it is easy to keep track of them. 4. The exact number, 1,716, indicates that someone is keeping a careful tally.
Re: [Vo]:Bioweapons
Maybe they want the "backfire"... in that a hidden purpose would be not a weapon against enemies but a method of population control ... sounds Crichton-esque, no? The elderly suffer disproportionately. China claims to be a leader in AI. Maybe their version of Hal predicted a favorable outcome by 2025 - as the most cost effective way to keep an aging population from being an increasing burden. Historically, there is a model in the Spanish flu of 1918 which killed as many as 50 million but was followed by the "roaring twenties" a decade of incredible economic growth and widespread prosperity, driven by recovery from the pandemic and from WWI (which only killed a fraction as many). --- Creating a bio-weapon is like designing a gun to backfire. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk
Re: [Vo]:More on the WuFlu conspiracy theory
On Fri, Feb 14, 2020 at 11:48 AM Jed Rothwell wrote:...That's another 98,000 deaths, around 342,000 total. That would be one of the worst epidemics in U.S. history. "The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, the deadliest in history, infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide—about one-third of the planet’s population—and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims, including some 675,000 Americans. " https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic
Re: [Vo]:More on the WuFlu conspiracy theory
On Fri, Feb 14, 2020 at 11:48 AM Jed Rothwell wrote: The Chinese government reported that 1,700 health care workers have contracted the virus, and 6 have died. That is a mortality rate of 0.4%. A mortality rate cannot be determined without the number that recover. We don't know that yet.
[Vo]:Bioweapons
Hi, Creating a bio-weapon is like designing a gun to backfire. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk local asymmetry = temporary success
Re: [Vo]:More on the WuFlu conspiracy theory
Info, some of it disturbing, but which looks authoritative - on the Wuhan situation... which doc keeps getting removed from the web by very skilled hackers. https://archive.is/QIBmE
Re: [Vo]:More on the WuFlu conspiracy theory
The Chinese government reported that 1,700 health care workers have contracted the virus, and 6 have died. That is a mortality rate of 0.4%. It is about 4 times higher than ordinary flu. I think this is a reliable estimate because they probably keep close track of health care workers, and they probably give them the best treatment available. This is probably the best estimate of mortality we have so far. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…ia/china-coronavirus.html Projecting that to the U.S.: in the U.S., ordinary influenza kills 12,000 to 61,000 per year, depending on how virulent it is. (How widespread it becomes.) The Wuhan flu appears to be very virulent, based on what has happened in Japan. So, a 0.4% mortality rate would kill approximately 61,000 * 4 = 244,000. But, you have to increase that by about 40%. In the U.S., ~40% of adults get a flu shot, so they are nearly all immune. There is no flu shot for Wuhan flu, so roughly 40% more people will get it. That's another 98,000 deaths, around 342,000 total. That would be one of the worst epidemics in U.S. history. In absolute numbers, it would be about half the deaths of the Civil War, the worst war in U.S. history. It would also be an economic and social disaster, as it already is in China.
Re: [Vo]:More on the WuFlu conspiracy theory
The Wiki article on this novel does not mention Wuhan-400. Has it been "sanitized"? The Eyes of Darkness | | | | | | | | | | | The Eyes of Darkness A mother sends her son on a camping trip with a leader who has led this trip into the mountains 16 times before ... | | | Terry Blanton wrote: Reality imitates art: https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/arts-culture/article/3050481/virus-called-wuhan-400-makes-people-terribly-ill-dean-koontz " The Eyes of Darkness, a 1981 thriller by bestselling suspense author Dean Koontz, tells of a Chinese military lab that creates a virus as part of its biological weapons programme. The lab is located in Wuhan, which lends the virus its name, Wuhan-400. A chilling literary coincidence or a case of writer as unwitting prophet? "
Re: [Vo]:More on the WuFlu conspiracy theory
Reality imitates art: https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/arts-culture/article/3050481/virus-called-wuhan-400-makes-people-terribly-ill-dean-koontz " *The Eyes of Darkness*, a 1981 thriller by bestselling suspense author Dean Koontz, tells of a Chinese military lab that creates a virus as part of its biological weapons programme. The lab is located in Wuhan, which lends the virus its name, Wuhan-400. A chilling literary coincidence or a case of writer as unwitting prophet? "
