Re: [Vo]:Why cold fusion will not need any grid
Eric Walker eric.wal...@gmail.com wrote: To be included in the disadvantages of a new technology are ones relating to existing regulations and to sunk capital costs. Yes. It is hard to predict the effect of regulations on cold fusion. Sunk capital costs for equipment and infrastructure can have a large impact on the new technology, or a small impact, depending on circumstances. I believe that the need for new infrastructure will prevent the use of hydrogen automobiles and battery swapping machines. Plug-in hybrid cars have a huge advantage because they can use the existing gasoline delivery infrastructure. Fortunately, sunk costs will not have much impact on cold fusion. There are sunk costs for existing equipment. People will not run out and buy cold fusion cars the moment they come on the market. They will wait until their present automobiles wear out. This will not take long. Automobiles, domestic heating and air conditioning equipment and appliances seldom last longer than 10 or 15 years. The sunk cost of the existing energy delivery infrastructures for electricity, gasoline and natural gas will have no impact on cold fusion, because cold fusion does not need any infrastructure. All the fuel you need is built into the equipment. Or if it needs replacement, the repair man or mechanic can deliver a ten-year supply in the palm of his hand. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Why cold fusion will not need any grid
one point to support your vision jed, no grid, agains what I propose as possible, a microgrid, can be found with It, Internet. if you see internet it is both like a grid with utilities, the internet provider, servers, sites, DNS, routers ... and individual resources, PC, personal wifinetwork... ther is no peer to peer wifi that is seriously working, like the microgrid I propose. people have difficulties to share. however maybe the sucess of sharing economy, may allow that... making analogies with those 3 situations would help us to understand the problems. users basically don't want to worry, even if it is expensive. either he rent a comodity (taxi, internet, cloud disk, cloud CPU, ) or he own an asset (disk, PC, datacenter). people seldom share resources, if it is not through a consolidated thirdparty infrastructure. now if regulation is a problem, peer to peer seems to be interesting. Tor, P2P file sharing, PGP, bitcoin, darknet,... microgrid could appear if 1- dedicated devices are not affordable for one user 2- shared devices are too much regulated and taxed to be affordable/usable. 2 will be probably true untill utilities die... 1- is false... so you are right jed. one (pair) generator is enough... fr one house, for one building or even one level/company or one flat. 2015-01-20 15:53 GMT+01:00 Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com: Eric Walker eric.wal...@gmail.com wrote: To be included in the disadvantages of a new technology are ones relating to existing regulations and to sunk capital costs. Yes. It is hard to predict the effect of regulations on cold fusion. Sunk capital costs for equipment and infrastructure can have a large impact on the new technology, or a small impact, depending on circumstances. I believe that the need for new infrastructure will prevent the use of hydrogen automobiles and battery swapping machines. Plug-in hybrid cars have a huge advantage because they can use the existing gasoline delivery infrastructure. Fortunately, sunk costs will not have much impact on cold fusion. There are sunk costs for existing equipment. People will not run out and buy cold fusion cars the moment they come on the market. They will wait until their present automobiles wear out. This will not take long. Automobiles, domestic heating and air conditioning equipment and appliances seldom last longer than 10 or 15 years. The sunk cost of the existing energy delivery infrastructures for electricity, gasoline and natural gas will have no impact on cold fusion, because cold fusion does not need any infrastructure. All the fuel you need is built into the equipment. Or if it needs replacement, the repair man or mechanic can deliver a ten-year supply in the palm of his hand. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Why cold fusion will not need any grid
Lennart Thornros lenn...@thornros.com wrote: However, I agree with the notion that having people stringing electrical lines without enough expertise would be dangerous. I rather saw that decisions about how where and why to 'string wires' would be determined by the neighbors interested in a micro grid - using common sense and personal responsibility for their actions. People do not have common sense regarding electricity. Most people know nothing about it. You cannot expect ordinary people living in neighborhoods to judge whether a grid design is safe or not. The only way to have grids is to have them installed by licensed, regulated companies. We will also need licensed installers and many regulations for cold fusion generators. Anything powerful enough to power your entire house is powerful enough to kill you. People often complain about how our society has so many regulations and rules. There's a good reason why we have these rules. When electricity was first developed in the 1870s there were no rules. It was chaos. Many people were killed and many buildings burned down until the industry was regulated. Another thing is that in order to arrange this micro grid, which just serve as a insurance against failure of ones own LENR . . . We do not need protection against the failure of one's own cold fusion generator. We do not have any such protection for today's electricity. The electricity often fails here in Georgia. Sometimes the failure is citywide; sometimes it only happens over a few blocks; and in some cases it only happens at one house, when a tree falls on the wire, for example. If cold fusion generators are properly engineered they will be as reliable as grid electricity is today. People who need extra reliability for things like medical equipment will purchase two generators, as I said. For everyone else, 24-hour repair service will suffice, and it will be far cheaper than having a small, local grid. We do not have protection against the house plumbing backing up and flooding the house from the toilets. We do not have protection against the refrigerator failing and causing the food to spoil. We do not have protection against your car battery going dead on a cold morning, or the car getting a flat tire. You have to call a tow truck when that happens. So why do we need iron-clad protection against a power failure? - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Why cold fusion will not need any grid
Alain Sepeda alain.sep...@gmail.com wrote: just putting 2 generators on the same home-grid is not so simple. it is like having two internet access on the same network. (with DC it can be simpler, or not). No, it is easy. One generator is in the emergency standby mode. If the first one goes off, the second one comes on automatically. The power may stop momentarily but it comes on a few seconds later. As I said, people who have medical life support systems at home have emergency standby generators. The medical systems have batteries nowadays so they can be without power for a while. Here are some standby power systems: http://www.generac.com/for-homeowners/home-backup-power http://www.lowes.com (search for standby generator) These may not be engineered to run continuously the way a cold fusion generator would be. Other small generators are designed to run continuously, for remote cabins and the like. Here is the cheapest one from Lowe's: Generac PowerPact 7,000-Watt (LP) Standby Generator with Generac Engine and Automatic Transfer Switch, $1,709.00 The most expensive one: KOHLER 48,000-Watt (LP) Standby Generator with Kohler Engine, $14,709.00 - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Why cold fusion will not need any grid
In reply to Alain Sepeda's message of Tue, 20 Jan 2015 21:49:34 +0100: Hi, [snip] just putting 2 generators on the same home-grid is not so simple. it is like having two internet access on the same network. (with DC it can be simpler, or not). ...that's why they should be designed and sold as a deliberately coupled pair, with built in control mechanisms to ensure correct operation. Regards, Robin van Spaandonk http://rvanspaa.freehostia.com/project.html
Re: [Vo]:Why cold fusion will not need any grid
you are right that regulation of the grid is essential for safety, and stability. Of course I assumed that the engineering regulation would be respected, the regulation i talk abou are not about safety but just to protect utilisties as often regulation are exploited by politicians. just putting 2 generators on the same home-grid is not so simple. it is like having two internet access on the same network. (with DC it can be simpler, or not). anyway it is probably hopeless as there is no hope that people respect engineering rules strictly (see how IT safety is respected at home), and that regulation by state avoid defending the economic rents of big corps and numerous voters., independence seems natural if possible. even if the reactor is managed by a network of plumber companies. 2015-01-20 21:25 GMT+01:00 Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com: Lennart Thornros lenn...@thornros.com wrote: However, I agree with the notion that having people stringing electrical lines without enough expertise would be dangerous. I rather saw that decisions about how where and why to 'string wires' would be determined by the neighbors interested in a micro grid - using common sense and personal responsibility for their actions. People do not have common sense regarding electricity. Most people know nothing about it. You cannot expect ordinary people living in neighborhoods to judge whether a grid design is safe or not. The only way to have grids is to have them installed by licensed, regulated companies. We will also need licensed installers and many regulations for cold fusion generators. Anything powerful enough to power your entire house is powerful enough to kill you. People often complain about how our society has so many regulations and rules. There's a good reason why we have these rules. When electricity was first developed in the 1870s there were no rules. It was chaos. Many people were killed and many buildings burned down until the industry was regulated. Another thing is that in order to arrange this micro grid, which just serve as a insurance against failure of ones own LENR . . . We do not need protection against the failure of one's own cold fusion generator. We do not have any such protection for today's electricity. The electricity often fails here in Georgia. Sometimes the failure is citywide; sometimes it only happens over a few blocks; and in some cases it only happens at one house, when a tree falls on the wire, for example. If cold fusion generators are properly engineered they will be as reliable as grid electricity is today. People who need extra reliability for things like medical equipment will purchase two generators, as I said. For everyone else, 24-hour repair service will suffice, and it will be far cheaper than having a small, local grid. We do not have protection against the house plumbing backing up and flooding the house from the toilets. We do not have protection against the refrigerator failing and causing the food to spoil. We do not have protection against your car battery going dead on a cold morning, or the car getting a flat tire. You have to call a tow truck when that happens. So why do we need iron-clad protection against a power failure? - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Why cold fusion will not need any grid
Alain Sepeda alain.sep...@gmail.com wrote: 2- shared devices are too much regulated and taxed to be affordable/usable. 2 will be probably true untill utilities die... That is an interesting point. Come to think of it, a small shared electric grid should be highly regulated. It would be a dangerous thing to have in the neighborhood. You don't want power lines installed by amateurs going from one house to another. A small neighborhood Wi-Fi system would run at very low power and would not be dangerous. I think that individual installed generators are much safer than a micro-grid. We already have these. Many houses have natural gas-fired standby generators, especially out in the countryside where power is unreliable. Nowadays, PV electricity is becoming cost competitive with conventional generator electricity. It is becoming more popular in the US, although it is still below 1% of all electricity. (Wind is 5%.) Power companies are starting to panic. They are passing laws and regulations to prevent the use of PV. Where that fails they are trying to put into place surcharges to discourage it. One of them wanted to charge $100 a month to people to have PV electricity. The regulator refused to let them charge that much so they ended up charging $5 per month. See: http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/12/alec-calls-penalties-freerider-homeowners-assault-clean-energy The power companies claim they need the $100 because people with PV electricity are getting a free ride on the electric grid, tapping into it only when they need it. This makes no sense. It is like saying that people who have gas-fired stoves and water heaters are getting a free ride because they do not have to pay for electricity to cook and heat water, so they should pay anyway. Except they have to pay for, um . . . natural gas. People who have PV electricity pay for the PV panels. Why should they have to pay for energy twice? Actually it is not so much the power companies making these ridiculous claims and trying to stop PV electricity. It is the Koch brothers, Exxon Mobil and the other usual suspects at the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), including 103 Republicans and 1 Democrat. I sense a pattern. See: http://www.alecexposed.org/wiki/What_is_ALEC%3F If you are curious to know who will lead the fight against cold fusion once it becomes generally known that the effect is real, just glance at this list. You can be sure the attacks will be paid for by the Brothers Kotch, and the people in the television spot ads claiming that cold fusion is dangerous, expensive, destructive, and communistic will include Dick Cheney, Newt Gingrich and the others listed here. I can predict that with the same assurance I predict the sun will rise in the east tomorrow. The power companies will use similar tactics to prevent the use of cold fusion that they now deploy against PV. That is another reason to make cold fusion generators completely standalone with no connection to the power company grid. If there is a connection, the power company will claim the right to regulate or control the generator. If there is no connection it will be none of their business. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Why cold fusion will not need any grid
Eric, I think your statement has a lot of validity. In addition it supports my idea that large organizations are bad from all points of view and the advantages they had are now obsolete due to our easy and reliable information capacity. I will think the banks are very good examples. European banks were smaller and more specialized and therefore they could not withstand the market pressure. I lived in Sweden in the 70 is and 80 is. During those twenty years I do not think I wrote five checks. All business transactions were overnight and electronic. I could not believe how behind the US banks were. It is amazing that it is still using paper checks in an envelop carried by US mail at twice the cost of the stamp you bought. Still takes a week to send money. I think the reason it still is this way is that some people like to say the check is in the mail and that is impossible with electronic banking. Jed, I think there are as big hurdles for LENR as for the banks. If big organizations are ruling we will be behind the rest of the world. I will admit that my knowledge about science is limited and that I lack the means to judge about how valid the latest findings are. Encouraging to me is the tone and the many people working on experiment to show that it is real. Assuming a commercial product will be available before 2020 (the year of full vision):), then I will suggest that the implementation of LENR could be done in five years with small organizations taking the leading role. If we let the giants handle it it will never happen. Jed, you say that a micro grid needs to be highly regulated. The problem is that we are asking for help from 'big brother' and as he now is in control he is making sure that his buddies in other similar organizations get their interests protected. I think we need less regulation. However, I agree with the notion that having people stringing electrical lines without enough expertise would be dangerous. I rather saw that decisions about how where and why to 'string wires' would be determined by the neighbors interested in a micro grid - using common sense and personal responsibility for their actions. Another thing is that in order to arrange this micro grid, which just serve as a insurance against failure of ones own LENR, you do not need to do anything in many communities as current grid already exist and instead of 'stringing lines' one need to cut out the transformers. Best Regards , Lennart Thornros www.StrategicLeadershipSac.com lenn...@thornros.com +1 916 436 1899 202 Granite Park Court, Lincoln CA 95648 “Productivity is never an accident. It is always the result of a commitment to excellence, intelligent planning, and focused effort.” PJM On Tue, Jan 20, 2015 at 7:37 AM, Alain Sepeda alain.sep...@gmail.com wrote: one point to support your vision jed, no grid, agains what I propose as possible, a microgrid, can be found with It, Internet. if you see internet it is both like a grid with utilities, the internet provider, servers, sites, DNS, routers ... and individual resources, PC, personal wifinetwork... ther is no peer to peer wifi that is seriously working, like the microgrid I propose. people have difficulties to share. however maybe the sucess of sharing economy, may allow that... making analogies with those 3 situations would help us to understand the problems. users basically don't want to worry, even if it is expensive. either he rent a comodity (taxi, internet, cloud disk, cloud CPU, ) or he own an asset (disk, PC, datacenter). people seldom share resources, if it is not through a consolidated thirdparty infrastructure. now if regulation is a problem, peer to peer seems to be interesting. Tor, P2P file sharing, PGP, bitcoin, darknet,... microgrid could appear if 1- dedicated devices are not affordable for one user 2- shared devices are too much regulated and taxed to be affordable/usable. 2 will be probably true untill utilities die... 1- is false... so you are right jed. one (pair) generator is enough... fr one house, for one building or even one level/company or one flat. 2015-01-20 15:53 GMT+01:00 Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com: Eric Walker eric.wal...@gmail.com wrote: To be included in the disadvantages of a new technology are ones relating to existing regulations and to sunk capital costs. Yes. It is hard to predict the effect of regulations on cold fusion. Sunk capital costs for equipment and infrastructure can have a large impact on the new technology, or a small impact, depending on circumstances. I believe that the need for new infrastructure will prevent the use of hydrogen automobiles and battery swapping machines. Plug-in hybrid cars have a huge advantage because they can use the existing gasoline delivery infrastructure. Fortunately, sunk costs will not have much impact on cold fusion. There are sunk costs for existing equipment. People will not run out and buy cold fusion cars the moment they
Re: [Vo]:Why cold fusion will not need any grid
On Mon, Jan 19, 2015 at 8:48 AM, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote: When the new technology can do everything the old one does, and more, at a lower cost with other advantages such as speed and convenience, the old technology invariably goes away. To be included in the disadvantages of a new technology are ones relating to existing regulations and to sunk capital costs. The technology exists for me to securely wire money to someone in the US free of charge. But when I actually do so I write a paper check and send it via snail mail, using up one of a handful of stamps I bought sometime back. This is because an interbank wire transfer initiated over the Internet will cost 20 - 35 dollars and will entail filling out a long form that includes my current job title and the recipient's social security number. One might imagine that US bankers would be embarrassed when they travel overseas and see the alternatives that are available to people living in other countries. I think this impression might be mistaken. The type of people who succeed as bankers in the US may be impervious to embarrassment. Eric
Re: [Vo]:Why cold fusion will not need any grid
I have never seen a 70 rpm record, but I have seen and heard 78 RPMs, All those wonderful character giving scratches and pops...they stored all those pre-war hits: happy days are here again was my favorite. On Mon, Jan 19, 2015 at 12:45 AM, John Berry berry.joh...@gmail.com wrote: Axil Axil janap...@gmail.com wrote: Your vision of the LENR future is too limited. I am not talking about LENR. I am talking about the economics and cost efficiency of different energy systems, such as central generation, PV and -- in the future -- LENR. Every technology has built-in imperatives, and a built-in way in which it can be used to greatest advantage, at the least cost. When a new technology is developed there are usually many competing standards and implementations. These are quickly narrowed down to one or two. Examples: Long-play vinyl records after WWII settled on 33 rpm and 45 rpm, replacing 70 rpm and other proposed standards. There were some 6 different kinds of RAM memory circa 1970. By 1980, only semiconductor memory survived. Things like bubble memory never had a chance. After 1980 personal computers quickly settled on the PC or Mac standard. At this time, the Intel processor pushed other designs out out of the main market. They survive only in niche applications. . . . Standards are narrowed down to one or two for many reasons, primarily because the design engineers, tech support people, service people and others can only master one or two techniques, and there is a limited amount of RD money. Once a good method -- or a good-enough method -- emerges, others tend to fall by the wayside. This is why cold fusion electricity is likely to be used by one method, and only one method, after the technology matures. It is not because cold fusion itself is limited to one method. It is because manufacturers, people, and society as a whole are not inclined to test many different implementations after a reasonably good one is found. We find something that works and we stick to it. This is why many sub-optimal technologies continue in use for a long time, even after better ones have been invented. This is also a matter of economics. All else being equal, the lowest-price method prevails in the end. Individual generators will be cheaper than a combination of grid plus generators and for that reason alone, grid distribution cannot compete and will not survive.
Re: [Vo]:Why cold fusion will not need any grid
Gasp! What will happen to my utility pension? Frank Z
Re: [Vo]:Why cold fusion will not need any grid
The telegraph was an amazing invention but it did not make sending letters by mail obsolete. The invention of the airplane did not make the train obsolete. Harry
Re: [Vo]:Why cold fusion will not need any grid
H Veeder hveeder...@gmail.com wrote: The telegraph was an amazing invention but it did not make sending letters by mail obsolete. That is because telegraphs were far more expensive than letters, and they could not transmit pictures and other non-textual information. The invention of e-mail finally did make sending letters by mail obsolete. The number of letters mailed per year is falling rapidly. When the new, competing technology has some advantages but also some disadvantages such as higher cost or technical limitations, the old technology survives. When the new technology can do everything the old one does, and more, at a lower cost with other advantages such as speed and convenience, the old technology invariably goes away. That is why no one rides horses in cities, and why sailing ships are not used. The invention of the airplane did not make the train obsolete. Incorrect. From 1945 to 1960, airplanes destroyed the long-distance railroad passenger business. They did not destroy the railroad freight business because airplanes cannot carry heavy freight, and they cannot go from any location to any other location (without an airport). If they could, there would not be any railroads or trucks. In the distant future, point-to-point air transportation will be perfected and ground transportation will be greatly reduced. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Why cold fusion will not need any grid
Axil Axil janap...@gmail.com wrote: Your vision of the LENR future is too limited. I am not talking about LENR. I am talking about the economics and cost efficiency of different energy systems, such as central generation, PV and -- in the future -- LENR. Every technology has built-in imperatives, and a built-in way in which it can be used to greatest advantage, at the least cost. When a new technology is developed there are usually many competing standards and implementations. These are quickly narrowed down to one or two. Examples: Long-play vinyl records after WWII settled on 33 rpm and 45 rpm, replacing 70 rpm and other proposed standards. There were some 6 different kinds of RAM memory circa 1970. By 1980, only semiconductor memory survived. Things like bubble memory never had a chance. After 1980 personal computers quickly settled on the PC or Mac standard. At this time, the Intel processor pushed other designs out out of the main market. They survive only in niche applications. . . . Standards are narrowed down to one or two for many reasons, primarily because the design engineers, tech support people, service people and others can only master one or two techniques, and there is a limited amount of RD money. Once a good method -- or a good-enough method -- emerges, others tend to fall by the wayside. This is why cold fusion electricity is likely to be used by one method, and only one method, after the technology matures. It is not because cold fusion itself is limited to one method. It is because manufacturers, people, and society as a whole are not inclined to test many different implementations after a reasonably good one is found. We find something that works and we stick to it. This is why many sub-optimal technologies continue in use for a long time, even after better ones have been invented. This is also a matter of economics. All else being equal, the lowest-price method prevails in the end. Individual generators will be cheaper than a combination of grid plus generators and for that reason alone, grid distribution cannot compete and will not survive.
Re: [Vo]:Why cold fusion will not need any grid
http://phys.org/news/2015-01-einstein-spooky-action-quantum-networks.html Quantum entanglement is contagious. If the number of LENR units is pervasive inside your house, the level of entanglement in your house may reach a critical level that may not be good for you. Your body may be absorbed into the global LENR field inside your home and your body possessed by the global house wide entangled LENR field might begin to transmutate. Heat induced by an unintended LENR reaction inside your body may cook you where you stand and you may explode in a shower of boiling guts like a frog cooked in a microwave. I am glad that there will be fearless and totally committed first adopters like Jed that will brave the unknown and demonstrate that ubiquitous LENR power deployment in his house is a save prospect. On Sun, Jan 18, 2015 at 6:09 PM, Axil Axil janap...@gmail.com wrote: Jed, Your vision of the LENR future is too limited. A LENR reactor will function like a battery where the required current is supplied intelligently. These units will plug either into your house circuit or and/or each of your appliances as an option. The Constitution of the USA will be amended to include the inalienable right affording free grant of LENR power in unlimited amounts to all citizens including businesses located in the USA as a birthright and these units will be provided by the department of LENR affairs. On Sun, Jan 18, 2015 at 5:22 PM, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote: Alain Sepeda alain.sep...@gmail.com wrote: the big question is how the utilities, the grid will react. if the grid moves quickly to a microgrid, a mesh-grid, a smart producer grid, then people will be happy to save some investment on their CHP with a sharing platform. I predict that cold fusion will be more cost effective with no grid. Not a big one like we have now, and not small, micro-grids either. The reasons are a little complicated, but they are food for thought -- A grid with local generation, such as PV solar, is needed because: 1. PV generation is intermittent and it stops at night. 2. People seldom install enough PV capacity to produce all the power they need, yet sometimes they have excess capacity, such as when they are not home. So they want to sell the extra power. 3. Battery storage is expensive. None of these reasons apply to cold fusion. It will not be intermittent; it will cost little to install all the capacity you need; the value of excess electricity will be zero so there will be no market; and it will not need much of a battery. Probably a supercapacitor will do. Trying to sell excess electricity from cold fusion would be like trying to sell municipal water to your neighbors. The cost is very low and everyone already has all the water they need. Sharing capacity with cold fusion makes no economic sense. Rather than maintain a grid, it would be cheaper to give everyone a generator with 110% of their likely maximum demand. If someone often reaches capacity, they will buy another generator, the way some people nowadays buy an extra refrigerator. Suppose the average house needs 30 kW of capacity. Vendors will sell many generators of 20, 30 and 40 kW. These will be the most popular sizes and they will be mass produced at a very low cost. The 30 kW will be only marginally more expensive than the 20 kW model. I base this prediction on the cost of automobile engines and standby generators. Given the likely low cost, if you need 25 kW, it will be cheaper to buy a 30 kW generator, or an extra 20 kW unit, than it would to pay to maintain a grid. The grid will not enhance critical reliability. It does not do that today. I used to know someone who had electrically powered life support medical equipment in her house. She had to have an emergency generator. With cold fusion she would have to have an extra generator, or perhaps two extra generators. A grid would prevent you from losing power when your home generator breaks. It does have that advantage. But a failure will be extremely rare once the technology matures. Ask yourself how many times your home furnace has failed, or all of your plumbing has plugged up with the toilets overflowing. Yes, that happens, but it is rare. You can call 24-hour emergency repair service for a furnace or plumbing. I am confident that 24-hour emergency repair service will be offered for cold fusion generators as well. Having a repairman come at 2 a.m. will cost a lot, but not as much as the long-term cost of maintaining a grid. It happens that my house has two furnaces and two air conditioners, because we built an extension. Both furnaces are small. On a few occasions, one has broken. I did not have to call for 24-hour emergency service because the other furnace keeps the house reasonably warm. (One furnace makes the house too hot at that end, and chilly at this end, but livable.) The repair people from Peachtree Heating and Air
Re: [Vo]:Why cold fusion will not need any grid
Axil Axil janap...@gmail.com wrote: http://phys.org/news/2015-01-einstein-spooky-action-quantum-networks.html Quantum entanglement is contagious. If the number of LENR units is pervasive inside your house, the level of entanglement in your house may reach a critical level that may not be good for you. I doubt that is true, but if it is true, obviously my predictions go out the window. Such unpredictable and esoteric problems are outside of my purview and beyond the scope of the discussion. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Why cold fusion will not need any grid
The EPR paradox pointed out that two well-separated systems can have a strange type of quantum connection, so that what happens in one system seems to immediately affect the other. This connection has recently been called 'EPR steering entanglement'. EPR steering is the nonlocality – what Albert Einstein called 'spooky actions at a distance' – associated with the EPR paradox and has traditionally been investigated between only two parties. An experiment performed by researchers from the Australian National University (ANU) and Tianjin University supports the predictions of theoretical work developed by researchers at Swinburne and Peking University. We used an optical network to experimentally confirm how this spooky type of entanglement can be shared over not just two, but three or more distinct optical systems http://phys.org/tags/optical+systems/, Dr Seiji Armstrong, from the Quantum Computing Centre Node at ANU, said. Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2015-01-einstein-spooky-action-quantum-networks.html#jCp On Sun, Jan 18, 2015 at 7:47 PM, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote: Axil Axil janap...@gmail.com wrote: http://phys.org/news/2015-01-einstein-spooky-action-quantum-networks.html Quantum entanglement is contagious. If the number of LENR units is pervasive inside your house, the level of entanglement in your house may reach a critical level that may not be good for you. I doubt that is true, but if it is true, obviously my predictions go out the window. Such unpredictable and esoteric problems are outside of my purview and beyond the scope of the discussion. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:Why cold fusion will not need any grid
Jed, Your vision of the LENR future is too limited. A LENR reactor will function like a battery where the required current is supplied intelligently. These units will plug either into your house circuit or and/or each of your appliances as an option. The Constitution of the USA will be amended to include the inalienable right affording free grant of LENR power in unlimited amounts to all citizens including businesses located in the USA as a birthright and these units will be provided by the department of LENR affairs. On Sun, Jan 18, 2015 at 5:22 PM, Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com wrote: Alain Sepeda alain.sep...@gmail.com wrote: the big question is how the utilities, the grid will react. if the grid moves quickly to a microgrid, a mesh-grid, a smart producer grid, then people will be happy to save some investment on their CHP with a sharing platform. I predict that cold fusion will be more cost effective with no grid. Not a big one like we have now, and not small, micro-grids either. The reasons are a little complicated, but they are food for thought -- A grid with local generation, such as PV solar, is needed because: 1. PV generation is intermittent and it stops at night. 2. People seldom install enough PV capacity to produce all the power they need, yet sometimes they have excess capacity, such as when they are not home. So they want to sell the extra power. 3. Battery storage is expensive. None of these reasons apply to cold fusion. It will not be intermittent; it will cost little to install all the capacity you need; the value of excess electricity will be zero so there will be no market; and it will not need much of a battery. Probably a supercapacitor will do. Trying to sell excess electricity from cold fusion would be like trying to sell municipal water to your neighbors. The cost is very low and everyone already has all the water they need. Sharing capacity with cold fusion makes no economic sense. Rather than maintain a grid, it would be cheaper to give everyone a generator with 110% of their likely maximum demand. If someone often reaches capacity, they will buy another generator, the way some people nowadays buy an extra refrigerator. Suppose the average house needs 30 kW of capacity. Vendors will sell many generators of 20, 30 and 40 kW. These will be the most popular sizes and they will be mass produced at a very low cost. The 30 kW will be only marginally more expensive than the 20 kW model. I base this prediction on the cost of automobile engines and standby generators. Given the likely low cost, if you need 25 kW, it will be cheaper to buy a 30 kW generator, or an extra 20 kW unit, than it would to pay to maintain a grid. The grid will not enhance critical reliability. It does not do that today. I used to know someone who had electrically powered life support medical equipment in her house. She had to have an emergency generator. With cold fusion she would have to have an extra generator, or perhaps two extra generators. A grid would prevent you from losing power when your home generator breaks. It does have that advantage. But a failure will be extremely rare once the technology matures. Ask yourself how many times your home furnace has failed, or all of your plumbing has plugged up with the toilets overflowing. Yes, that happens, but it is rare. You can call 24-hour emergency repair service for a furnace or plumbing. I am confident that 24-hour emergency repair service will be offered for cold fusion generators as well. Having a repairman come at 2 a.m. will cost a lot, but not as much as the long-term cost of maintaining a grid. It happens that my house has two furnaces and two air conditioners, because we built an extension. Both furnaces are small. On a few occasions, one has broken. I did not have to call for 24-hour emergency service because the other furnace keeps the house reasonably warm. (One furnace makes the house too hot at that end, and chilly at this end, but livable.) The repair people from Peachtree Heating and Air came during regular business hours, which is cheaper than having them come at night or Saturday. For the first several decades of cold fusion development, before ultra-reliable thermoelectric devices are perfected, I expect that many people will install two cold fusion generators. Or the designers will come up with tandem units that duplicate the components most likely to fail. If the cold fusion heat source fails more often than the boiler and turbine generator, there will be two independent cold fusion heat source modules connected to one boiler and one turbine. If one cold fusion heat source module fails (say, because it leaks hydrogen), the machine will continue to operate with the second module, while it triggers an alarm and e-mails Peachtree Heating and Air. The repairman will come by with a replacement module. You will be out of power for an hour or so while
[Vo]:Why cold fusion will not need any grid
Alain Sepeda alain.sep...@gmail.com wrote: the big question is how the utilities, the grid will react. if the grid moves quickly to a microgrid, a mesh-grid, a smart producer grid, then people will be happy to save some investment on their CHP with a sharing platform. I predict that cold fusion will be more cost effective with no grid. Not a big one like we have now, and not small, micro-grids either. The reasons are a little complicated, but they are food for thought -- A grid with local generation, such as PV solar, is needed because: 1. PV generation is intermittent and it stops at night. 2. People seldom install enough PV capacity to produce all the power they need, yet sometimes they have excess capacity, such as when they are not home. So they want to sell the extra power. 3. Battery storage is expensive. None of these reasons apply to cold fusion. It will not be intermittent; it will cost little to install all the capacity you need; the value of excess electricity will be zero so there will be no market; and it will not need much of a battery. Probably a supercapacitor will do. Trying to sell excess electricity from cold fusion would be like trying to sell municipal water to your neighbors. The cost is very low and everyone already has all the water they need. Sharing capacity with cold fusion makes no economic sense. Rather than maintain a grid, it would be cheaper to give everyone a generator with 110% of their likely maximum demand. If someone often reaches capacity, they will buy another generator, the way some people nowadays buy an extra refrigerator. Suppose the average house needs 30 kW of capacity. Vendors will sell many generators of 20, 30 and 40 kW. These will be the most popular sizes and they will be mass produced at a very low cost. The 30 kW will be only marginally more expensive than the 20 kW model. I base this prediction on the cost of automobile engines and standby generators. Given the likely low cost, if you need 25 kW, it will be cheaper to buy a 30 kW generator, or an extra 20 kW unit, than it would to pay to maintain a grid. The grid will not enhance critical reliability. It does not do that today. I used to know someone who had electrically powered life support medical equipment in her house. She had to have an emergency generator. With cold fusion she would have to have an extra generator, or perhaps two extra generators. A grid would prevent you from losing power when your home generator breaks. It does have that advantage. But a failure will be extremely rare once the technology matures. Ask yourself how many times your home furnace has failed, or all of your plumbing has plugged up with the toilets overflowing. Yes, that happens, but it is rare. You can call 24-hour emergency repair service for a furnace or plumbing. I am confident that 24-hour emergency repair service will be offered for cold fusion generators as well. Having a repairman come at 2 a.m. will cost a lot, but not as much as the long-term cost of maintaining a grid. It happens that my house has two furnaces and two air conditioners, because we built an extension. Both furnaces are small. On a few occasions, one has broken. I did not have to call for 24-hour emergency service because the other furnace keeps the house reasonably warm. (One furnace makes the house too hot at that end, and chilly at this end, but livable.) The repair people from Peachtree Heating and Air came during regular business hours, which is cheaper than having them come at night or Saturday. For the first several decades of cold fusion development, before ultra-reliable thermoelectric devices are perfected, I expect that many people will install two cold fusion generators. Or the designers will come up with tandem units that duplicate the components most likely to fail. If the cold fusion heat source fails more often than the boiler and turbine generator, there will be two independent cold fusion heat source modules connected to one boiler and one turbine. If one cold fusion heat source module fails (say, because it leaks hydrogen), the machine will continue to operate with the second module, while it triggers an alarm and e-mails Peachtree Heating and Air. The repairman will come by with a replacement module. You will be out of power for an hour or so while he installs it. Decades later that will be a repair robot, not a repairman, and failures will be so rare they will be reported in the Local News section of your newspaper. Decades after that, thermoelectric power supplies will be built into any machine that needs electricity, and there will be no electric sockets in walls, and no home generators or central generators, except for a few specialized purposes. - Jed
