Re: [Vo]:A flu irony - less total deaths !!!

[Terry Blanton]

Sorry, Jed, I put very little credence in anything the CPC says.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/gordon-g-chang-china-falsely-blames-us-for-coronavirus-pandemic

https://www.foxnews.com/world/chinese-deny-americans-coronavirus-drugs

The data from Italy and Iran are more reliable, IMO.

Cheers!

On Thu, Mar 12, 2020 at 11:30 PM Jed Rothwell  wrote:

> Terry Blanton  wrote:
>
> You can't really define mortality of a disease until you either
>> a) have experience with the disease
>> b) count the dead
>> The mortality is the number of infected divided into the number of dead.
>>
>
> The Chinese now have enough data from recovered and dead patients to draw
> some conclusions. The mortality rate varies are great deal depending on
> age. It also depends on medical care. When there are enough hospital beds
> and doctors, the rate is much lower.
>
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
>
>

Re: [Vo]:A flu irony - less total deaths !!!

[Jed Rothwell]

Terry Blanton  wrote:

You can't really define mortality of a disease until you either
> a) have experience with the disease
> b) count the dead
> The mortality is the number of infected divided into the number of dead.
>

The Chinese now have enough data from recovered and dead patients to draw
some conclusions. The mortality rate varies are great deal depending on
age. It also depends on medical care. When there are enough hospital beds
and doctors, the rate is much lower.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Re: [Vo]:A flu irony - less total deaths !!!

[Terry Blanton]

 not either, both

On Wed, Mar 11, 2020 at 8:49 PM Terry Blanton  wrote:

> You can't really define mortality of a disease until you either
> a) have experience with the disease
> b) count the dead
> The mortality is the number of infected divided into the number of dead.
> You don't know the outcome of those with an ongoing infection; so, the
> definition is really:
>
> dead/(recovered+dead)
>
> We don't really have much experience since there are so many ongoing
> infections.  If you actually use this definition without a lot of
> experience, the mortality rate is terrifying.
>

Re: [Vo]:A flu irony - less total deaths !!!

[Terry Blanton]

You can't really define mortality of a disease until you either
a) have experience with the disease
b) count the dead
The mortality is the number of infected divided into the number of dead.
You don't know the outcome of those with an ongoing infection; so, the
definition is really:

dead/(recovered+dead)

We don't really have much experience since there are so many ongoing
infections.  If you actually use this definition without a lot of
experience, the mortality rate is terrifying.

Re: [Vo]:A flu irony - less total deaths !!!

[Jürg Wyttenbach]

Am 12.03.20 um 00:52 schrieb Jed Rothwell:
The numbers from Italy today are disastrous. In response, the Prime 
Minister announced more stringent rules. NYT:


The death rate in Italy is above 20% (3858 vs 827 deaths)  now if we 
assume an average of 6 days for detection to death. But many people die 
much faster others stay for weeks.  So its quite difficult to get an 
exact figure.


The next problem is that hospitals only take critical cases as we do too 
in Switzerland. Thus many people are not even tested.


The only allowed conclusion is: If you are old, did smoke, do have high 
blood pressure medication and diabetes, then you are at extreme high 
risk. (much higher than 20% may be 50% or more.)



Other risks are: Immune defects, complex medication, respiratory 
problems, living under a smog condition (L.A.).


If you are younger, without risks then please do care not to physically 
contact anymore people with above said risks. (or only with taking 
utmost safety measurements)


The real infection v.s. death rate is much, much lower in the range of 
influenza or even below.



J.W.

--
Jürg Wyttenbach
Bifangstr.22
8910 Affoltern a.A.
044 760 14 18
079 246 36 06

Re: [Vo]:A flu irony - less total deaths !!!

[Jed Rothwell]

Terry Blanton  wrote:

Corona virus vaccines are difficult because the immune system attacks the
> RNA; but, it's the spike proteins which cause the infection by "unlocking"
> the cell wall.  If they were easy, we would have a common cold vaccine.
>

 A few years ago I read about efforts to develop a "universal" flu vaccine.
Ah, here's something about it from the NIH. See:

https://www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/universal-influenza-vaccine-research

Re: [Vo]:A flu irony - less total deaths !!!

[Jed Rothwell]

Terry Blanton  wrote:


> If you want to track the data in near real time
> https://ncov2019.live/data
>
> the tables are sortable.
>

This site is also good:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Note that it has detailed information for several countries, such as:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Watch out, because it does not update some countries including Italy until
midday EDT.

The numbers from Italy today are disastrous. In response, the Prime
Minister announced more stringent rules. NYT:

Pharmacies, grocery stores, banks and public transit will be allowed to
operate, but any other commercial enterprise that is not vital —
restaurants, bars, most stores, cafes, beauty salons — must close to limit
the contagion . . .

Italy had already imposed controls unlike anything seen in a modern
democracy, banning public gatherings and telling a nation of 60 million
people to halt travel except for work or emergencies.

Re: [Vo]:A flu irony - less total deaths !!!

[Terry Blanton]

Corona virus vaccines are difficult because the immune system attacks the
RNA; but, it's the spike proteins which cause the infection by "unlocking"
the cell wall.  If they were easy, we would have a common cold vaccine.

Re: [Vo]:A flu irony - less total deaths !!!

[Jürg Wyttenbach]

Am 12.03.20 um 00:39 schrieb Terry Blanton:

All very interesting.

Covid-19 appears to kill by cytokine storm in most cases.



This was exactly what happened in recent (classic-) corona vaccine tests 
too, what was one reason to give up further vaccine development. They 
will restart the development for sure as a big panic will provide big 
money!


The only thing that will short time work are inhibitors - basically a 
mirror of the lock = cellular receptor, as in AIDS therapy.



J.W.

--
Jürg Wyttenbach
Bifangstr.22
8910 Affoltern a.A.
044 760 14 18
079 246 36 06

Re: [Vo]:A flu irony - less total deaths !!!

[Terry Blanton]

All very interesting.

Covid-19 appears to kill by cytokine storm in most cases.

Some evidence indicates that influenza is seasonal due to fowl migration.
The virus is carried in their feces.

No shit.

If you want to track the data in near real time  https://ncov2019.live/data

the tables are sortable.

If you would like to see the procedure for testing of the presence of
SARS-CoV-2 virus its

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/uscdcrt-pcr-panel-for-detection-instructions.pdf?sfvrsn=3aa07934_2


by PCR amplification.  Thank you Kary Mullis.

The S.Koreans and Chinese had stockpiled SARS test kits and only had to
change one reagent to make it a Covid-19 kit.

>

Re: [Vo]:A flu irony - less total deaths !!!

[Jones Beene]

Bpb,
Not wishful at all -  if you look at this scenario from the perspective of a 
biochemist - this is apparently a typical RNA catalyzed biochemical system.(I 
am told)

Proteins and enzymes are tailored (by evolutionary pressure) to be extremely 
thermoactive and catalytic in various selected environments and parameters. A 
fractional degree of average temperature change can be critical to success or 
failure.

Knowing that - it is easy to imagine corvid has a strong reliance on "average 
ambient temperature" maybe less than one degree c, as it is correlated to the 
ability to rapidly proliferate... After all, the "common cold" is the 
poster-boy for this phenomenon. Why do people keep overlooking that connection? 
And there is NO CURE, NO VACCINE, after all these years and never will be since 
the virus mutates too fast.

That should tell you something about the big picture here. It's all a 
statistical game in the end.


bobcook39...@hotmail.com wrote:  
 
> To assume the mode of contamination is diminished by warm weather is wishful 
> thinking IMHO. 
  


  
   

RE: [Vo]:A flu irony - less total deaths !!!

[bobcook39...@hotmail.com]

Jones—

I hope your optimism applies to old folks with somewhat diminished immune 
systems or other conditions that make the new covid-19 more deadly for those 
folks.

Understanding how it kills is still not clear, although it seems to be 
associated with a wholesale respiratory system failure associated with unusual 
blood coagulation factors.

I have seen research papers that conclude the virus attaches to ACE2 hormone 
that regulates blood vessel mechanics and blood pressure, and indirectly, 
(maybe) coagulating factors.  One paper was out of India and the other was from 
Wuhan about 10  years ago and may have been the basis for the Chinese Dr. that 
first warned about the virus last year.

A similar ACE2 hormone is found in many mammals including bats, civet cats, 
feline cats, rats and other pets including dogs  and the live animals marketed 
in China. They all may have immunity to covid-19, but are carriers.

To assume the mode of contamination is diminished by warm weather is wishful 
thinking IMHO.

I learned early on “the devil is in the details” and to be careful of statics 
that apply to large groups of  individuals with differing failure  mechanisms.

We need test kits that look for live virus as well as antibodies indicating an 
immunity in humans and other animals including application to tissue, saliva 
and blood sampling.

Media quoting confirmed cases in people should be accompanied by the number of 
tests used on the group being counted.  People over 65 and people under 2  
should be counted and reported in separate groups IMHO!

Bob Cook


-
Sent from Mail for Windows 10

From: Jones Beene
Sent: Wednesday, March 11, 2020 1:22 PM
To: vortex
Subject: [Vo]:A flu irony - less total deaths !!!

It is a bit premature to make this statistical assessment, but the numbers 
coming into CDC suggest that the Corona virus could have a net positive effect 
on the USA flu season in 2019-20... in terms of fewer net deaths, and millions 
less combined hospitalizations.

...whoa !!... where is CNN on this story?

Well - this conclusions is tentative, so far and would statistical in the sense 
of less total combined fatalities, (i.e. less than would have been expected if 
Covid-10 had not surfaced and instigated a massive level of precaution). The 
efforts made to control the new virus may have the side-effect of cutting off 
the legs of the "normal" flu season which is far much more statistically 
relevant this year.

All kinds of ramifications to that.

Of course we do not know for sure if the new virus is seasonal and cannot 
tolerate warmer weather, but actual testing in China is suggesting that the new 
one is indeed very seasonal and will subside rapidly in April - in the same way 
that most but not all of viral influenza subsides in warmer weather.

Here is the CDC site which has charted data that needs to be interpreted 
despite being fairly current,.. but by the end of March it will become more 
obvious. As of now -

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

We need one or two more of the extreme data downturn points similar to the last 
one - to be sure, but the trend is obvious - and it is a massive downturn in 
the "normal" influenza is striking. If it does not reverse, this is big news.

The important chart is in the one which documents the week-by-week progression. 
This chart of course does not include the novel corona virus - only the two 
most expected versions from the past. The statisticians have not yet made the 
connections that the combined total of all three - could end up being massively 
lower in terms of net deaths - than is expected in a normal year from only the 
seasonal version.

In conclusion, it is becoming clearer, but we need more data --- that what 
started out as a horrendous regular flu season (a month ago it was being called 
"horrendous") has instead turned around 180 degrees and could be, in fact, a 
light season, if not the lightest of the past two decades.

This is because when we add in the new corona virus data and its sharp upturn - 
to the normal data- there is not much statistical change due to the fact that 
there are so few cases since it didn't get started until several months into 
the winter season, and it may peter out sooner than expected (that is uncertain 
of course).

The interesting dynamic is this: why does a few degrees of extra heat in 
springtime kill the virus? Say, maybe there is an additional irony to "global 
warming"?

But whatever the ultimate irony is seen tobe - maybe we need an occasional "new 
version" of flu or some other pandemic, ever so often, just so that we do not 
become too complacent.

Jones

Re: [Vo]:A flu irony - less total deaths !!!

[Jones Beene]

 Hi Robin
If that were true (more energy available for the immune response), then one 
would expect that populations in warmer climates would lbe healthier, live 
longer and maybe never catch the flu - no?

This is not the case, in fact it is almost the opposite - although there could 
be another overriding reason why equatorial populations generally have 
comparatively low life-spans.


mix...@bigpond.com wrote:  
>  The interesting dynamic is this: why does a few degrees of extra heat in 
>springtime kill the virus? Say, maybe there is an additional irony to "global 
>warming"?
Perhaps because the body doesn't need to burn fuel to maintain the core 
temperature. That leaves more energy to fight infections.


  

Re: [Vo]:A flu irony - less total deaths !!!

[mixent]

In reply to  Jones Beene's message of Wed, 11 Mar 2020 20:22:49 + (UTC):
Hi,
[snip]
>The interesting dynamic is this: why does a few degrees of extra heat in 
>springtime kill the virus? Say, maybe there is an additional irony to "global 
>warming"?
Perhaps in the warmer months people's immune system is less compromised because 
the body doesn't need to burn fuel to
maintain the core temperature. That leaves more energy to fight infections.
Regards,


Robin van Spaandonk

local asymmetry = temporary success