Re: [Vo]:OFF TOPIC My election prediction
Here is an interesting comment on technology and poll-taking. [Generating a truly random set of respondents] is a very challenging problem, in part because the technological landscape is changing so fast that it's hard for pollsters to use their experience from the last presidential election as a basis for refining their methodology. Among the things that presumably have changed since 2008: the number of people who have cell phones, the number who have abandoned land lines in favor of cell phones, the number who have caller ID and use it, the number who ignore calls from unknown parties, etc. And these kinds of things tend to vary by age, income level, ethnicity, etc. -- all of which correlate with which candidate a person will vote for. Pollsters can do things to try to correct for all of this, but the ground is shifting so fast that it's hard for them to know they're doing the right things. http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/11/is-ohio-a-toss-up/264571/ This a reminder that there are no permanent solutions in technology. Every invention carries in it the seeds of obsolescence. If it works at all, it must eventually become obsolete, because it works only because it fits in with the other machines, processes, standards, customs and so on prevalent at this moment in history. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:OFF TOPIC My election prediction
ssory to question from far away, but this have impact on us in EU. what is the probable color of the congress, and your prediction. will it be the same or not? As I understand, a president without the congress cannot do much, not even what his opponent would have done... 2012/11/4 Jed Rothwell jedrothw...@gmail.com I predict Obama will win with 2% of the popular vote. I am giving him OH (sure), CO and VA (not so sure, but I'll go with it). Romney takes FL but it will be close. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:OFF TOPIC My election prediction
Alain Sepeda alain.sep...@gmail.com wrote: what is the probable color of the congress, and your prediction. will it be the same or not? I predict the same as now: the House will be Republican and the Senate Democratic. Most people make the same prediction, including the Langley High School 12th-grade government classes: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/opinions/outlook-crystal-ball-contest/ As I understand, a president without the congress cannot do much, not even what his opponent would have done... In the past this was not a problem. Many presidents, such as Nixon, worked effectively with a Democratic majority in both the House and Senate. In the post-WWII era, most Representatives had served in the military and this make them less partisan. In recent decades partisanship has increased a great deal. In the Senate the use of the filibuster has increased from one or two occasions per year to ~100 to ~140 per year. This is a method used by the minority to block legislation not supported by 60% of Senators, instead of a simple majority. I think it should be abolished. Here is a graph of filibusters: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/the-history-of-the-filibuster-in-one-graph/2012/05/15/gIQAVHf0RU_blog.html - Jed
RE: [Vo]:OFF TOPIC My election prediction
The Kiplinger Letter weighs in on the pending election, posted Friday Nov 2 2012: Politics and the Press (How Kiplinger views their role as a subscription service): As the campaign season draws to a close and voters head to the polls. A reminder about how we at Kiplinger see our role in covering elections, which is sometimes unclear to our readers during a bitter campaign like this: We forecast the outcomes of national elections, without endorsements, exploring what those outcomes will likely mean to you and your business. We aim for clear-eyed, objective judgments, free of bias and partisanship, which typify the journalism of some columnists, talk shows and cable news outlets. It's easy to get information that supports your personal preferences. But it may not be useful information on which to base your plans. Our readers are mostly in business, and we're aware of your concerns. Heck, we're in business, too, and we have many of the same worries you do about the sluggish economy, higher taxes, more regulation and so on. But... Sound decisions aren't based on what you.or we.want to happen. They're based on good intelligence about what is most likely to happen. Our presidential forecasting record has been very good...a correct call of every race since Eisenhower won his first term in 1952, including the elections of Kennedy, Nixon, Carter and Reagan plus George W. Bush's squeaker in 2000. (Our only blunder in 89 years...a doozy: Forecasting Dewey over Truman in 1948.) If we get the call wrong, it won't be due to bias but rather to faulty analysis and projections. And we'll apologize for the bad call...a disservice to our readers. And here is what Kiplinger predicts are the likely odds for November 6: Can Obama win the electoral vote while Romney wins the popular vote? Yes, especially in the wake of the hurricane that tore through the Northeast. Flooding and damage will dampen turnout in N.Y., N.J., Conn., Pa., Md. and Del., reducing the usual cushion for Democratic candidates, but Obama will still win them. The odds continue to favor another term for Obama, but not by a blowout. Romney seems on course for as many as 267 electoral votes.three short of victory. and he's not likely to rack up fewer than 235 unless he loses to Obama in Fla. Obama may take as few as 271 (one more than needed) and likely not more than 303. Polls in a few key states are close enough that Romney could buck the odds. But at a time when Romney's momentum was slowing, it was halted altogether, through no fault of his own, because Hurricane Sandy grounded both candidates for several days at a critical juncture. Mother Nature was this year's Oct. surprise. In no case, though, could either candidate legitimately claim a mandate They have a lot more to say on the matter, but these are the highlights. Subscribe to the service if you want more details. I have been a subscriber since the 1980s. Regards, Steven Vincent Johnson www.OrionWorks.com www.zazzle.com/orionworks
Re: [Vo]:OFF TOPIC My election prediction
OrionWorks - Steven Vincent Johnson orionwo...@charter.net wrote: Obama may take as few as 271 (one more than needed) and likely not more than 303. I predict 303, including VA. Without VA it comes to 290. I am predicting 2%, which is slightly more than the polls show at present, because of the Likely Voter (LV) problem. In U.S. elections, participation is low, so unless you estimate the number of likely voters a poll is meaningless. I have read the methods used by various pollsters to estimate this. Gallop in particular shows a wide gap between all voters and likely voters. I have great respect for pollsters, especially Gallup, but I think they are underestimating three things: The likely Latino turnout. Young voters with cellphones only. The effectiveness of Obama's get-out-the-vote (GOTV) campaign. Not for nothing was he a community organizer. My sources in the Democratic Party tell me things are awesome in PA, VA and CO. They have been rehearsing for months. They have people and resources lined up, and schedules wired to 15 minute increments. A Republican insider in CO expects the Dems to pick up 2% in his state with there GOTV. Incidentally, Gallop has shut down for a week because they think the storm shut off access to so many respondents the sample would be biased. No one else did that. I assume the others are estimating the effects of NY and NJ voters unable to respond. See: http://pollingmatters.gallup.com/ QUOTE: Here's an update on Gallup’s thinking when we suspended our national daily tracking of the presidential election campaign as of Monday, Oct. 29. Basically, we reached the conclusion that Superstorm Sandy had compromised the ability of a national survey to provide a nationally representative assessment of the nation’s voting population. An unprecedented estimated 8 million households have lost power because of the storm and many others have had their lives disrupted. Cell phone service has also been compromised in many areas. If Gallup's stats from before the storm were correct, and not outliers, and if the trend they showed is still in place, Obama will lose. I can't deny that is possible, but I doubt it. So does Nate Silver. Silver also disputes their estimate of LV. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:OFF TOPIC My election prediction
I think a lot of people will be shocked by this election's results.
