Peter Norvig (one of Google's AI leaders) shed some light onto this at
his talk at the ACC05 conference.
What he alluded to there was a goal, in 5+ years from how, of having a
system that can answer any natural language query whose answer exists
somewhere on the Internet.
E.g. if asked Who was
Do you think the Google AGI entity would answer if you ask what stocks
are going up tomorrow and with what level of accuracy or probability?
How about asking where and when the big earthquake will hit in California.
Gauging AI's performance is going to be one of the major test of AI.
Dan
It probably wouldn't do very well at such a test...no better than Delphi, say.
OTOH, how well do human experts in the field do on such tests?
The question might be, how is it developed from a sophisticated Delphi+filter
system. The answer to that isn't obvious, and probably isn't singular.
Searching is a part of AI... But is not deep logic like Chess...
Is IBM Deep Blue just a look up machine or really perceiving and logical
reasoning with an output of action.. the next move.
Of course, we do not know if people play chess well, we only know that
some play better than others.
Any
