In a previous post Eliezer referenced a good critique of Moore's Law:
http://firstmonday.org/issues/issue7_11/tuomi/index.html
Assuming the facts presented in that paper, I agree with the
conclusions that Moore's Law was never a valid law. But I have researched
Moore's Law references on the Web
On 6 Jan 2003, James Rogers wrote:
> I recently put together a human brain equivalent model that takes into
> consideration several aspects of system performance to figure out what
> kind of system configuration we would need to generate a human
> equivalent structure (which I expect would actuall
I recently put together a human brain equivalent model that takes into
consideration several aspects of system performance to figure out what
kind of system configuration we would need to generate a human
equivalent structure (which I expect would actually be much smarter than
a human in practice).
Ilkka Tuomi questions the existence, speed, and regularity of Moore's Law:
http://firstmonday.org/issues/issue7_11/tuomi/index.html
SL4 discussion of memory bandwidth (not speed) as the limiting factor in
human-equivalent computing:
http://sl4.org/archive/0104/1063.html
http://www.google.co
Title: Message
Stephen, I'll be interested to see how that compares to Ray Kurzweil's
forecasts in http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0134.html.
Please send me the spreadsheet and graph.Thanks,Amara D.
AngelicaEditor, KurzweilAI.net
On Mon, 6 Jan 2003, Stephen Reed wrote:
> In another post I will attach the MS Excel Spreadsheet and graph - and if
> our mail list does not accept attachments, then please send a request for
> the spreadsheet to me directly.
-Steve
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Below is data for projecting Moore's law, adapted from Hans Moravec's data
published at:
http://www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm
I began the analysis at 1985 and deleted computers not based upon
single commodity CPU chips in order to focus the forecast.
Without further debate, assume as