Hi,
Unfortunately my previous message did not make it through the BB
because it was down.
As expected, ARISSat 1 has now decayed. According to the first
"Final Report" of USSTRATCOM their last decay prediction was at
07:00 UTC +/- 3 hours on January 4, 2012, during an ascending
pass in orbit 241
Hi,
My updated (and probably last) prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1:
January 4, 09:00 UTC ± 5 hours.
Recent predictions from other sources:
- USSTRATCOM TIP message:
January 4, 05:34 UTC ± 11 hours
- Aerospace:
January 4, 07:35 UTC ± 4 hours
(http://reentrynews.aero.org/1998067ck.html).
Fo
Hi,
My updated prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1:
January 4, 18:00 UTC ± 12 hours.
Recent predictions from other sources:
- USSTRATCOM TIP message:
January 4, 12:06 UTC ± 24 hours
- Aerospace:
January 4, 07:34 UTC ± 28 hours
(http://reentrynews.aero.org/1998067ck.html).
73,
Nico PA0DLO
On
Hi,
My updated prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1:
January 4, 10:00 UTC +/- 18 hours.
Recent predictions from other sources:
- USSTRATCOM TIP message:
January 4, 07:46 UTC +/- 48 hours
- Aerospace:
January 4, 07:34 UTC +/- 28 hours
(http://reentrynews.aero.org/1998067ck.html).
73,
Nico PA0DL
Try driving at 17,500 mph...
-Original Message-
From: amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org [mailto:amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org] On
Behalf Of Tom Williams
Sent: Saturday, December 31, 2011 12:43 PM
To: Nico Janssen
Cc: amsat-bb@amsat.org
Subject: [amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat-1 (37772) decay
Do we really
Do we really expect the temp to get substantially higher before it begins to
tumble? Just sort of thinking about putting my hand out the window of my car,
there's a lot of aero force before it gets hot...
Tom
KJ4EAW
On Dec 31, 2011, at 9:46 AM, Nico Janssen wrote:
> Hi,
>
> My prediction
Hi,
My prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 still stays on
the same date: January 4 +/- 1 day.
As the aerodynamic drag increases, the telemetry of the
satellite should show ever higher temperatures in the
coming days. Especially interesting is the data from the
Kursk experiment, that measures t
Hi,
My current prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 is
January 4, 2012, +/- 3 days. If solar and geomagnetic
activity really increase before the end of December,
as some predictions suggest, the decay may be a few
days earlier.
73,
Nico PA0DLO
On 2011-12-11 15:24, Nico Janssen wrote:
Hi,
So
Hi,
Solar activity has remained at relatively low levels. There
have not been any M or X class solar flares nor magnetic
storms in the past several weeks. As a result, the expected
decay date of ARISSat 1 has shifted into January. It is now
to be expected around January 3, but depending on solar
n any
comments you may have, or anyone else on the list who is knowledeable on this subject.
73 John G7HIA
From: Nico Janssen
To: amsat-bb@amsat.org
Sent: Monday, 28 November 2011, 20:36
Subject: [amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat-1 (37772) decay
Hi,
With its relatively hi
m: Nico Janssen
To: amsat-bb@amsat.org
Sent: Monday, 28 November 2011, 20:36
Subject: [amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat-1 (37772) decay
Hi,
With its relatively high area to mass ratio, ARISSat 1 is
quite sensitive to space weather changes. In the past two
weeks solar flux values have been relatively
Hi,
With its relatively high area to mass ratio, ARISSat 1 is
quite sensitive to space weather changes. In the past two
weeks solar flux values have been relatively low, around
140, while they were around 180 in the weeks before. Also
there have not been any magnetic storms.
As a result of this
Hi,
So far all my analyses of the evolution of the orbit of ARISSat 1
have resulted in a predicted decay date sometime in December 2011.
Actually my current predicted decay date for this satellite is
December 17. Obviously it depends very much on how solar activity
develops in the coming weeks.
Hello Everybody,
I totally agree with you James... the process is a continuous evolution.
I did my prediction on October 6th for the "Chicken Little Competition" and
my date was January 23rd 2012.
It surprisingly agrees with your prediction done almost one month later,
this make me think that my
Hi Jim,
Thanks for the update on your AMSAT Journal article.
There are several people on the bb who are following this topic and are busy
plotting data.
Any futher thoughts you have, as we move towards January would, I am sure be of
interest.
73 John G7HIA
Hello Jim, N8OQ.
Thanks for your very valuable reply.
Because it has the effect of the atmosphere density, I think that
the re-entry into the earth's atmosphere of ARISSat-1 becomes
really earlier than April 9, 2011.
I added your this reply under the following my URL,
http://www.ne.jp/asahi/ham
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