At 5:33 EST Robin wrote:
Tradesports, IEM, Betfair give Kerry a 71 to 74% chance to win.
At 10:02 EST, Robin wrote:
Tradesports now gives Bush a 62% of winning.
Doesn't this big swing undermine the theory that markets are
consistently good predictors of elections?
--Robert Book
[EMAIL
From CNN.com:
Sen. John Kerry's campaign refused to concede early Wednesday, arguing
that more than 250,000 provisional and absentee ballots remained to be
counted in the key battleground state of Ohio.
New Mexico will not release presidential election results until later
Wednesday because
Well the betting markets made a big reversal last night, from up to almost
75% in favor of Kerry, now down to a 5% chance for Kerry (even that looks
too high, so I finally made my first election bet).
Of course we should expect this sort of reversal at least 1/4 of the time,
so one can't be too
[EMAIL PROTECTED] (David Friedman) writes:
It's possible that I'm missing something--that there is some additional
large source of uncertainty that could change the outcome, such as huge
numbers of uncounted absentee ballots--but I don't think so. It looks to
me as though CNN doesn't want to
In a message dated 11/3/04 6:54:43 AM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:
In the end the important question is comparative - are there any other
institutions that on average do better? So far direction comparisons
between markets and other institutions in the field have favored
markets. And real and
I wrote:
... So far direction comparisons between markets and other institutions
in the field have favored markets. ...
[EMAIL PROTECTED] responded:
In this case, were the markets closer than the polls taken right before the
election? Were they closer than the exit polls?
I don't know the details
Assuming the preliminary results are accurately indicating the final results,
Tradesports did quite well at predicting the elections (except for a few hours
on Tuesday afternoon when it mistakenly reacted to exit polls). It's Monday
evening prices correctly indicated which presidential candidate
