[EMAIL PROTECTED] ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) writes:
Taking the example of Stalin's war on the peasantry in general and the
Ukraine in particular, we see that massive confiscations of income at marginal
rates
well in excess of 100% certainly detered economic activity, to put it rather
mildly.
Mancur
[EMAIL PROTECTED] (David Friedman) writes:
It's possible that I'm missing something--that there is some additional
large source of uncertainty that could change the outcome, such as huge
numbers of uncounted absentee ballots--but I don't think so. It looks to
me as though CNN doesn't want to
Assuming the preliminary results are accurately indicating the final results,
Tradesports did quite well at predicting the elections (except for a few hours
on Tuesday afternoon when it mistakenly reacted to exit polls). It's Monday
evening prices correctly indicated which presidential candidate
[EMAIL PROTECTED] (Wei Dai) writes:
To handle the case when it's not good enough to assume that p(x) is flat
in the range -.02n to .02n, for example when one candidate has a
clear lead, we can instead assume that p(x) has a normal distribution, and
find the normal distribution that best fits the
