Thanks for the accurate data. Elsewhere, I have read that the pre-war baby
bust began in the mid-1920's--before the great depression--and so could not
have been entirely a result of the difficult times of the '30's. If it
isn't too much trouble, can you either confirm or disconfirm this
In a message dated 1/30/03 8:30:04 AM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:
Thanks for the accurate data. Elsewhere, I have read that the pre-war
baby
bust began in the mid-1920's--before the great depression--and so could
not
have been entirely a result of the difficult times of the '30's. If it
Alypius Skinner wrote:
. . . . It became
obvious to me fairly early in the '90's that resentment against US foreign
policy had made Americans overseas the preferred target of terrorists.
Not in the Seventies?
--
Anton Sherwood, http://www.ogre.nu/
In a message dated 1/26/03 8:02:08 PM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:
(demographically, the boom began in 1943)
The fertility rate (measured per 1000 women) in 1943 barely exceeded that of
1942 (2,718 v. 2,628), follwed by declines in 1944 (2,568) and 1945 (2,491),
only a bit higher than the rates
PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] On Behalf
Of Anton Sherwood
Sent: Sunday, January 26, 2003 9:35 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Re: Bubblemania
Alypius Skinner wrote:
. . . . It became
obvious to me fairly early in the '90's that resentment against US
foreign policy had made Americans
Bryan D Caplan wrote:
Another annoying thing about the I told you there was a bubble people
is that a good chunk of the stock market crash can be attributed to the
9/11 attacks (more specifically, indirect effects via policy changes).
If ever there were a random shock, it was 9/11.
Shame on
I have to agree with Alex Bryan. Here is a graph of the SP 500
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^SPXd=ct=5yl=onz=bq=l
About a third of the drop occurred before 9/11, a third occurred immediately after
9/11, and the other 2/3rds occurred in the first half of last year. Why 4/3rds?
Because most of
William Dickens wrote:
I have to agree with Alex Bryan. Here is a graph of the SP 500
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^SPXd=ct=5yl=onz=bq=l
About a third of the drop occurred before 9/11, a third occurred immediately after
9/11, and the other 2/3rds occurred in the first half of last year.
How does one figure out discount for things
like earthquakes, terrorism or other disasters?
Fabio
Where the probabilities are unknown, there is uncertainty rather than
insurable risk, and such chances are like many other uncertainties that
entrepreneurship necessarily deals with.
One either
Should markets be priced assuming that nothing will go wrong (random
shocks) or should markets be priced assuming that something will go wrong ?
If the answer is the latter, then shouldn't some margin of error provided
for the consequences of these random shocks ?
Are these events truly random.
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