Obama II
So... What about Obama's reelection? Here in Brazil, we had the impression that the Republicans chose the worst possible candidate, someone they put there to lose. Or maybe the Democrats voted in the Republican primaries to make him win. Did anyone over there ever think that Mitt Romney had _any_ chance? Alberto Monteiro PS: BTW, brazilian president, Dilma Rousseff, is _boring_. Three years as president, and there's not _any_ single joke about her. Nothing. ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: Obama II
-Original Message- From: brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com [mailto:brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com] On Behalf Of ALBERTO VIEIRA FERREIRA MONTEIRO Sent: Friday, November 09, 2012 3:17 AM To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion Subject: Obama II So... What about Obama's reelection? Here in Brazil, we had the impression that the Republicans chose the worst possible candidate, someone they put there to lose. Or maybe the Democrats voted in the Republican primaries to make him win. We have a primary system in the US. Right now, the extreme right wing of the Repubican party can force candidates far to the right. Good Republican candidates stayed on the sideline this year, leaving Romney and the 7 right wing dwarfs. Did anyone over there ever think that Mitt Romney had _any_ chance? I did, especially after the first debate. No American president has been re-elected with more than 7.2% unemployment since FDR, and he brought employment way down. This has been probably the most painful ecconomic period (in terms of changes) since WWII. That's a strong headwind. When Obama sleptwalked through the first debate, and Romney was ahead in the national polls, I thought it was a toss up. Especially after the UN speech which totally misidentified the cause of the deaths in Lybia after the administration had intelligence that pointed to terrorism, not a crowd gone wild. But, Romney blew the 2nd and 3rd debate, Obama...for the first time in the campaign, acted as though he wanted to be reelected, and Sandy cemented in the American mind the positive roll the Federal government can play. By election Eve, Gautam and I were arguing about the margin. He was spot on, I though Romney would take VA, CO, and FL. Dan M. ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Obama II
On Fri, 9 Nov 2012 07:17:25 -0200, ALBERTO VIEIRA FERREIRA MONTEIRO albm...@centroin.com.br wrote: So... What about Obama's reelection? Here in Brazil, we had the impression that the Republicans chose the worst possible candidate, someone they put there to lose. Or maybe the Democrats voted in the Republican primaries to make him win. I've got a somewhat different take on it from Dan, I think. The extreme 'right' in the Republican party is a shrinking minority, however little they want to admit the fact, and however voluble their protests to the contrary might be. Rick Perry is an example of the kind of candidate they would have preferred. The Republican mainstream probably knew better; if they felt the same way as the extremists Perry would have floated a lot longer than he did. Of all the other candidates, Ron Paul seemed the most sensible, but he had two things going against him: 1. He had a history of permitting extremely racist sentiments to be promulgated under his imprimatur; and 2. He was far, far more intelligent than any of the other candidates and, indeed, a fair margin of the electorate. Americans shy away from intelligence. So no, Romney was the best pick of the available options, as far as the Republicans saw him, I think. He wasn't *too* smart, wasn't *too* radically 'right', wasn't *too* moderate/centrist. He also wasn't too consistent, as his constantly changing campaign evidenced (he was reversing himself a couple of times a month by the end). No one deliberately floats a candidate they think will lose - what would the profit be in that? And if the Democrats had been stealth voting to undermine the Republicans, they would've picked someone clearly batshit loony, like Perry. Did anyone over there ever think that Mitt Romney had _any_ chance? Well, all but about 225,000 voters, yes. That's how narrow the popular vote margin was, last time I checked, between Obama and Romney. Dan was right about the debate performance, as well. Romney came out swinging and clobbered Obama in the first debate. The second and third were solid comebacks, though the third debate - being about foreign policy - was not watched by many Americans. (Our foreign policy is 'kill em all and let god sort em out'.) Biden did pretty well against Ryan in the VP debates, as well, calling him out repeatedly whenever he went outside the bounds of what most of us call 'reality'. Obama did the same thing with the second debate, calling Romney out when he lied, letting himself talk himself into corners, and so on. Nonetheless, Romney's approval went way, way up after the first debate, and it really did seem to energize him and his supporters. The electoral map doesn't show just how close the popular vote really was - and it was close. -- Warren Adams-Ockrassa ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: Obama II
In terms of the popular vote, as of now Obama has 61,174,297 votes, while Romney has 58,172,063 votes A difference of 3,002,234, so a fair margin and decisively winning the popular vote for Obama. The difference is going to be slighly above 2.5% and slightly above the Bush margin over Kerry, but nowhere near the margin he had in '08. I've got a somewhat different take on it from Dan, I think. The extreme 'right' in the Republican party is a shrinking minority, however little they want to admit the fact, and however voluble their protests to the contrary might be. Rick Perry is an example of the kind of candidate they would have preferred. He is a weak example, though. He couldn't remember his talking points. And, if you recall, Romney went to the right of him on immigration. The GOP is interesting. I live in a very red state, and Perry better reflects the average GOP voter than Romney. But, he had baggage that would have doomed him in the general election, like appproving people who wanted Texas to seceed from the USA while governor. So, the GOP establishment, which still controls a lot of money, undercut him. And his not being able to remember his own name (OK I'm exaggerating) in a debate didn't help him. I think the GOP establishment is fading, and Ryan is the likely '16 candidate. Remember, this is the party that took down Lugar so they could run a yahoo. They may control the Senate if they let moderate Republicans run. Nate Silver did a great piece on how the moderate GOP senators have mostly left. And the House is dominated by the tea party. One of the problems the Speaker of the House has is that he many not be able to deliver even a third of the party for a compromise on spending cuts/tax increases to decrease the deficit. Remember, the presidential candidates had to agree that even $1 in tax increase for every $10 in spending cuts was unacceptable. Dan M. ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Obama II
So... What about Obama's reelection? Here in Brazil, we had the impression that the Republicans chose the worst possible candidate, put there to lose. Or maybe the Democrats voted in the Republican primaries to make him win. Did anyone over there ever think that Mitt Romney had _any_ chance? Alberto Monteiro PS: BTW, Brazilian president, Dilma Rousseff, is _boring_. Three years as president, and not _any_ single joke about her. Nothing. Another explanation is perhaps when there is a incumbent up for the final term allowed under the law, more qualified candidates may choose to sit it out and let unknowns and also rans get egg on their face? Of course, in recent years that logic hasn't applied, but, Obama wasn't perceived as that weak, as Carter or Bush Sr. and Bush Jr. didn't really win... Capitalism Sucks is a book about the evils of capitalism. The author, Wolf Larsen, has a blog titled: War Criminal Obama Wins Reelection to the White House. http://capitalismsucks.blog.com Larsen ran for president in the 2012 elections as an independent. His campaign slogan was ~ Choosing between the Democrats and Republicans is like choosing between AIDS and cancer! http://WolfLarsen.org By the way if anyone is interested in how I did in the Santa Monica city council race please friend me on my Facebook page. While you're at it you might want to join in on the discussions on Brin's wall!~) Jon Mann ___ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
