Re: Freeman Dyson on climate
At 11:00 AM 3/30/2009, Bruce Bostwick wrote: Food security is a fairly significant worry, all things considered. It's nearly impossible to build up safety margin in the food distribution systems of most countries on earth because within one or two generations of any increase in the ability to produce food, the population has expanded to fill the gap, so the nature of the system as a whole is to operate near or at its limit to deliver at all times. Yep. Though there are countries where this is not likely to be a problem. The moment global warming starts to impact food production to any significant degree, people somewhere on earth will begin starving. I agree, though you don't even need that. Lack of low cost fossil energy alone could cause the population to fall by the end of the century to one or two billion people. And consider what diverting corn into alcohol production did to food supplies in Mexico. It won't affect people of our generation in the wealthiest countries (and the USA is still one of the wealthiest, even in its current weakened state), but it will affect people elsewhere on the planet almost from the moment food production starts feeling any sort of pinch. If it were possible to maintain a margin of production capacity without triggering an immediate population growth in response that eats up that margin completely, then it would be possible to ride out a lot of secondary effects of even fairly major climate change. But the dynamics of the existing systems and population growth together don't allow that margin .. Most of the world has not escaped from the Mathusian trap. Some parts have. It's going to be a rough situation for a while as one or the other modes prevails. Keith ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Freeman Dyson on climate
Sorry I meant that fresh water supplies are going to become a great problem very soon. and of course it is the Himalayas not the Andes must not have taken my meds:-) learner On Mar 29, 2009, at 3:40 PM, Ronn! Blankenship wrote: At 12:45 PM Sunday 3/29/2009, Chris Frandsen wrote: Agreed! Reduced fresh water supplies are a great! The Andes glaciers disappearing in the next 10 yrs will create havoc in India, etc. Huh? . . . ronn! :) ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Freeman Dyson on climate
On Mar 28, 2009, at 2:05 AM, Charlie Bell wrote: One of Dyson's main points is that global warming tends to get exaggerated. People of our generation or even the next one are extremely unlikely to die from the effects of global warming. Even a few generations down the road it is still unlikely unless they suddenly become very stupid. Who is going to stand still while the water rises over your head? Food security is the biggest worry. But I'm not in any state to discuss just now - been up since 4:40am and rode a very hilly 145km today... Food security is a fairly significant worry, all things considered. It's nearly impossible to build up safety margin in the food distribution systems of most countries on earth because within one or two generations of any increase in the ability to produce food, the population has expanded to fill the gap, so the nature of the system as a whole is to operate near or at its limit to deliver at all times. The moment global warming starts to impact food production to any significant degree, people somewhere on earth will begin starving. It won't affect people of our generation in the wealthiest countries (and the USA is still one of the wealthiest, even in its current weakened state), but it will affect people elsewhere on the planet almost from the moment food production starts feeling any sort of pinch. If it were possible to maintain a margin of production capacity without triggering an immediate population growth in response that eats up that margin completely, then it would be possible to ride out a lot of secondary effects of even fairly major climate change. But the dynamics of the existing systems and population growth together don't allow that margin .. ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Freeman Dyson on climate
At 12:45 PM Sunday 3/29/2009, Chris Frandsen wrote: Agreed! Reduced fresh water supplies are a great! The Andes glaciers disappearing in the next 10 yrs will create havoc in India, etc. Huh? . . . ronn! :) ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Freeman Dyson on climate
Agreed! Reduced fresh water supplies are a great! The Andes glaciers disappearing in the next 10 yrs will create havoc in India, etc. I think Dyson is focusing on the models and not the most recent actual data from the ice. learner On Mar 28, 2009, at 2:05 AM, Charlie Bell wrote: On 28/03/2009, at 9:26 AM, xponentrob wrote: One of Dyson's main points is that global warming tends to get exaggerated. People of our generation or even the next one are extremely unlikely to die from the effects of global warming. Even a few generations down the road it is still unlikely unless they suddenly become very stupid. Who is going to stand still while the water rises over your head? Food security is the biggest worry. But I'm not in any state to discuss just now - been up since 4:40am and rode a very hilly 145km today... Will expand later. C. ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Freeman Dyson on climate
On 28/03/2009, at 9:26 AM, xponentrob wrote: One of Dyson's main points is that global warming tends to get exaggerated. People of our generation or even the next one are extremely unlikely to die from the effects of global warming. Even a few generations down the road it is still unlikely unless they suddenly become very stupid. Who is going to stand still while the water rises over your head? Food security is the biggest worry. But I'm not in any state to discuss just now - been up since 4:40am and rode a very hilly 145km today... Will expand later. C. ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Freeman Dyson on climate
OK, I'm finished playing Dyson. Someone else take a turn. xponent Ignored Synergies Maru rob No need to play Dyson, he has summed up my take on global warming very nicely thank you. It is nice to know that someone who ideas have turned up in some of my favourite books is on the same wave length as me. Regards, Wayne Eddy ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Freeman Dyson on climate
- Original Message - From: "Michael Harney" To: "Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion" Sent: Friday, March 27, 2009 9:40 AM Subject: Re: Freeman Dyson on climate Alberto Monteiro wrote: Rob wrote: Worth a read. Dyson is a Global Warming skeptic with an interesting take on the subject. A GW skeptic or an AGW skeptic? It would be hard to deny GW from the past 400 years with data. Alberto Monteiro Let me attempt to play Dyson here. Based on what I read in the article, I would say that he doesn't dispute global warming. What he does dispute is the global impact that it would have. I can understand people saying "we need more data", what I can't understand is that they insist we keep things status quo until we have conclusive data when the current "disputed" data we have predicts multiple global catastrophes. With stakes that high, it makes no sense to say that we should err against the side of caution. Dyson's first point in simple terms is that the data you speak of is computer models, and computer models are simply thatmodels. They are not beasts of a factual nature. They are projections within which some of the criteria are adjustable, giving rise to best case scenarios or worst case scenarios. Basing your actions and spending large portions of your wealth when the potential for inaccuracy is high is foolish. (Dan addressed a similar situation with Sagan and Nuclear Winter just a few days ago) Dyson's next point is that the developing nations burning of coal is a good thing, a very good thing. The improvements in the quality of life in China will save more lives than will be lost due to global warming in a couple of generations. Another point is that this is a fairly cool period in the history of earth and that most of the evolution of life occurred in warmer periods with higher levels of CO2. Global warming is not global but local with cool areas getting warmer but warmer areas not getting warmer. It reminds me of the chicken gun episode of Mythbusters where Adam, who is the one usually doing foolish things and getting hurt, got angry at Jamie for wanting to make a potentially unsafe pressure tank. Sure, there is a chance that nothing catastrophic will happen, but if something catastrophic does happen, people are going to die. Erring against caution in such a situation is just a big middle finger to all those people who are potentially in harms way. Its like saying "We are willing to risk your lives and the lives of your family and friends to maintain our way of living." One of Dyson's main points is that global warming tends to get exaggerated. People of our generation or even the next one are extremely unlikely to die from the effects of global warming. Even a few generations down the road it is still unlikely unless they suddenly become very stupid. Who is going to stand still while the water rises over your head? People will simply adjust and they will have many years to do so. There won't be any sudden changes, it will all be very gradual and there will be a good number of benefits that come with a warmer climate. Like more food to eat for instance. *** OK, I'm finished playing Dyson. Someone else take a turn. xponent Ignored Synergies Maru rob ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Freeman Dyson on climate
It makes no difference in what we need to do no matter what you think about global warming. The global models indicate that energy shortage will kill far more people much sooner than global warming can be a significant factor. However, if you solve the energy problem on a global scale, fixing global warming *or* cooling is easy. I know how and have been talking about it for the last 10 months. It is now starting to get serious traction. Keith ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Freeman Dyson on climate
Alberto Monteiro wrote: Rob wrote: Worth a read. Dyson is a Global Warming skeptic with an interesting take on the subject. A GW skeptic or an AGW skeptic? It would be hard to deny GW from the past 400 years with data. Alberto Monteiro Based on what I read in the article, I would say that he doesn't dispute global warming. What he does dispute is the global impact that it would have. I can understand people saying "we need more data", what I can't understand is that they insist we keep things status quo until we have conclusive data when the current data we have predicts multiple global catastrophes. With stakes that high, it makes no sense to say that we should err against the side of caution. It reminds me of the chicken gun episode of Mythbusters where Adam, who is the one usually doing foolish things and getting hurt, got angry at Jamie for wanting to make a potentially unsafe pressure tank. Sure, there is a chance that nothing catastrophic will happen, but if something catastrophic does happen, people are going to die. Erring against caution in such a situation is just a big middle finger to all those people who are potentially in harms way. Its like saying "We are willing to risk your lives and the lives of your family and friends to maintain our way of living." Michael Harney dolp...@mikes3dgallery.com ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Freeman Dyson on climate
Rob wrote: > > Worth a read. Dyson is a Global Warming skeptic with an interesting > take on the subject. > A GW skeptic or an AGW skeptic? It would be hard to deny GW from the past 400 years with data. Alberto Monteiro ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Freeman Dyson on climate
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/29/magazine/29Dyson-t.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2&hp Worth a read. Dyson is a Global Warming skeptic with an interesting take on the subject. Remember brinl brinl if you don't have an account for NYT. xponent This Is Not Crichton Maru rob ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
