Re: Russia (Was What is wealth?)
No, by well-educated I mean professionals - accountants, lawyers, medics etc. Cyprus was full of them working bar, waiting, or worse being exploited in strip clubs. (It wasn't like London where an attractive woman could make good money doing exotic dancing a couple of times a week - these girls were often being forced to have sex with customers). Charlie. How did you establish that the girls in the strip clubs were well educated russian girls? Regards, Wayne ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Russia (Was What is wealth?)
On 19/12/2008, at 7:44 PM, Wayne Eddy wrote: How did you establish that the girls in the strip clubs were well educated russian girls? By the cunning method of living in the same building as them, and talking to them during the daytime. Charlie. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
RE: Russia (Was What is wealth?)
-Original Message- From: brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com [mailto:brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com] On Behalf Of Charlie Bell Sent: Thursday, December 18, 2008 3:54 PM To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion Subject: Re: Russia (Was What is wealth?) No, by well-educated I mean professionals - accountants, lawyers, medics etc. I thought that was the case, but thanks for the clarification. Cyprus was full of them working bar, waiting, or worse being exploited in strip clubs. (It wasn't like London where an attractive woman could make good money doing exotic dancing a couple of times a week - these girls were often being forced to have sex with customers). Well, as you know, that's particularly repugnant to me, both as the husband of an abuse victim (who later specialized in social work in working with victims) and as the father of daughters. I have heard about this sort of thing with uneducated poor Eastern European women, but not about it happening to the well educated. It's not that the evilness of this forcing is less if a woman is undereducated, but this strikes me as countering the proposal that education is the ticket out of poverty and exploitation. One question comes up, and you may or may not be able to answer it. Were the professionals allowed to work menial jobs but not professional jobs just because of local laws, customs, prejudices, etc., or do you think that the education system in Russia has fallen to the point where, for example, you'd never want to have a Russian surgeon operating on you? Dan M. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Russia (Was What is wealth?)
On Dec 19, 2008, at 11:01 AM, Dan M wrote: No, by well-educated I mean professionals - accountants, lawyers, medics etc. I thought that was the case, but thanks for the clarification. Cyprus was full of them working bar, waiting, or worse being exploited in strip clubs. (It wasn't like London where an attractive woman could make good money doing exotic dancing a couple of times a week - these girls were often being forced to have sex with customers). Well, as you know, that's particularly repugnant to me, both as the husband of an abuse victim (who later specialized in social work in working with victims) and as the father of daughters. I have heard about this sort of thing with uneducated poor Eastern European women, but not about it happening to the well educated. It's not that the evilness of this forcing is less if a woman is undereducated, but this strikes me as countering the proposal that education is the ticket out of poverty and exploitation. One question comes up, and you may or may not be able to answer it. Were the professionals allowed to work menial jobs but not professional jobs just because of local laws, customs, prejudices, etc., or do you think that the education system in Russia has fallen to the point where, for example, you'd never want to have a Russian surgeon operating on you? Dan M. One thing I know at least *used* to be true is that a fairly large portion of the population of former Soviet countries tended to be quite well formally educated, quite often on the master's or doctorate level, enough so that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the competition for the few professional jobs then available even worldwide was such that it was another strike against recent immigrants from former Soviet countries almost everywhere else. It's still true that among former Soviet-bloc emigres of a certain age, you'll find quite a few of them have higher level degrees of some sort, in some cases more than one. I think it was sort of an artifact of the Soviet system that university education was both inexpensive and one of the few things people could readily spend money on, plus to some extent a sort of nationalistic pride. It may be that those degrees are slightly less reflective of actual academic accomplishment than they are elsewhere, but I would say not by much, if at all. Nowadays, I think the driving factors are radically different, since the state-sponsored higher education system was one of the things that collapsed in the post-Soviet era, so the people emigrating to other countries *now* are much more likely to be at most high school educated, considerably poorer, and considerably more desperate. Which, to me, sort of explains how a lot of young women from former Soviet countries now work as models if they're lucky, and get drawn into the sex trade if they're not so lucky. It's definitely not a nice side of humanity that leads to them being exploited, and I don't have to like it (and, trust me, I don't!), but I do understand how it happens .. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Russia (Was What is wealth?)
On 18/12/2008, at 11:46 AM, dsummersmi...@comcast.net wrote: The recovery was caused by two things: Putin controlling the mob so businessmen knew who to bribe, and the rise in fuel costs. But, the last 4 years, as he consolidated his power, he also concentrated the wealthI don't think anyone would argue that Russia is not a more autocratic country than it was even 4 years ago. These types of countries rarely have well off citizens. More than that, why are there so many Russian ex-pats, well-educated, doing menial jobs in tourist resorts? 'cause it's better than no job in Russia. Charlie. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Belgian Beer (was Re: Russia (Was What is wealth?))
Wayne wrote: 5. The nicest beer I ever had the pleasure of drinking was in Russia. It was a Belgian brew and I wish I remembered the brand name. I know it betrays my Irish-ness, but I think the Belgians make the best beers. Chimay, Corsendonk, Maredsous...all delicious and with some fairly high alcohol contents to boot, which is a bit of a bonus I must admit. I like their Trippels the best, but YMMV. Jim Beer snob Maru Debt Consolidation Lower your debt by up to 50%. Click here to find out how. http://tagline.excite.com/fc/BK72PcZaafJZOMSsj7EE4r0dyhtS4pKIFviZ7lGh81I4M4X8l5e3Qg/ ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Belgian Beer (was Re: Russia (Was What is wealth?))
On Thu, Dec 18, 2008 at 6:08 AM, Jim Sharkey templar...@excite.com wrote: I know it betrays my Irish-ness, but I think the Belgians make the best beers. Ah, well, then I have to share a joke often told by a Fitzgerald friend of mine. An Irishman walks out of a bar. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . It could happen! Nick ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
RE: Russia (Was What is wealth?)
-Original Message- From: brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com [mailto:brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com] On Behalf Of Charlie Bell Sent: Thursday, December 18, 2008 4:51 AM To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion Subject: Re: Russia (Was What is wealth?) On 18/12/2008, at 11:46 AM, dsummersmi...@comcast.net wrote: The recovery was caused by two things: Putin controlling the mob so businessmen knew who to bribe, and the rise in fuel costs. But, the last 4 years, as he consolidated his power, he also concentrated the wealthI don't think anyone would argue that Russia is not a more autocratic country than it was even 4 years ago. These types of countries rarely have well off citizens. More than that, why are there so many Russian ex-pats, well-educated, doing menial jobs in tourist resorts? 'cause it's better than no job in Russia. And I bet it's not just the usual theater majors doing menial jobs while waiting for their break (father of a theater major sighs). I've read that the Greek riots are tied to this type of problem; there are no/very few good jobs available for college graduates there. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Russia (Was What is wealth?)
On 19/12/2008, at 5:47 AM, Dan M wrote: More than that, why are there so many Russian ex-pats, well-educated, doing menial jobs in tourist resorts? 'cause it's better than no job in Russia. And I bet it's not just the usual theater majors doing menial jobs while waiting for their break (father of a theater major sighs). I've read that the Greek riots are tied to this type of problem; there are no/very few good jobs available for college graduates there. No, by well-educated I mean professionals - accountants, lawyers, medics etc. Cyprus was full of them working bar, waiting, or worse being exploited in strip clubs. (It wasn't like London where an attractive woman could make good money doing exotic dancing a couple of times a week - these girls were often being forced to have sex with customers). Charlie. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Russia (Was What is wealth?)
Dan M. wrote: I would have thought that a low birth rate is very very good evidence of being part of the first world. It does have that in common with the first world. But, the life expectancy of both men and women in every age catagory is less than it was 40 years ago. And how can we trust communist statistics? Alberto Monteiro ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Belgian Beer (was Re: Russia (Was What is wealth?))
Jim wrote: I know it betrays my Irish-ness, but I think the Belgians make the best beers. Well, now they make Budweiser too so there is no accounting for taste... - jmh ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
RE: Russia (Was What is wealth?)
-Original Message- From: brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com [mailto:brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com] On Behalf Of Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro Sent: Thursday, December 18, 2008 6:00 PM To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion Subject: Re: Russia (Was What is wealth?) Dan M. wrote: I would have thought that a low birth rate is very very good evidence of being part of the first world. It does have that in common with the first world. But, the life expectancy of both men and women in every age catagory is less than it was 40 years ago. And how can we trust communist statistics? By secondary measure, of course. :-) If you want to argue that things were worse than the official statistics under the USSR, you won't find a debate opponent in me. But, after the USSR fell, a lot of data became available. The person who wrote the paper in question is an old lion of polisci, and has a great reputation. And, he is publishing in a very anti-Communist journal. So, I'd be shocked if he just took stock communist statistics without using secondary data. It could be that the fall wasn't as great as he portrayed, but men use to live longer, on average, than 60 years. Over 70 or so years of Communist rule, demographic errors of that magnitude become to big to miss. Dan M. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Belgian Beer (was Re: Russia (Was What is wealth?))
On 18 Dec 2008, at 14:08, Jim Sharkey wrote: Wayne wrote: 5. The nicest beer I ever had the pleasure of drinking was in Russia. It was a Belgian brew and I wish I remembered the brand name. I know it betrays my Irish-ness, but I think the Belgians make the best beers. Chimay, Corsendonk, Maredsous...all delicious and with some fairly high alcohol contents to boot, which is a bit of a bonus I must admit. I like their Trippels the best, but YMMV. Czech beer is very very good. And it costs less than coffee or Coke in Prague. Bohemian Maru -- William T Goodall Mail : w...@wtgab.demon.co.uk Web : http://www.wtgab.demon.co.uk Blog : http://radio.weblogs.com/0111221/ “Babies are born every day without an iPod. We will get there.” - Adam Sohn, the head of public relations for Microsoft’s Zune division. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Russia (Was What is wealth?)
- Original Message - From: Dan M dsummersmi...@comcast.net To: 'Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion' brin-l@mccmedia.com Sent: Thursday, December 18, 2008 1:34 AM Subject: RE: What is wealth? It's based on a number of things, but I think the single item that stood out for me was the male life expectancy: 59.2 years. 25 years ago, it was over 70 years (at least officially). This drop is absolutely amazing. Women fare much better, average life expectancy is 73.1 years or so, but this high death rate among men indicates a tremendous, debilitating underlying problem. Alcoholism gets most of the blame here, but that level of alcoholism is truly staggering. I have visited Russia a few times Ukraine once. I didn't see a lot of drunks wandering the streets, but there were a few indications that alcoholism could be a bit of a problem. 1. Beer is not really considered to be alcohol, in Ukraine in particular it was dirt cheap available in nearly every shop. 2. In Russia, in Volgograd in 2000 at least, it was possibile to go to a bar with an empty soft drink bottle and get it filled with beer. Actuallly, I was impressed with this as being very environmentally friendly. :-) 3. I noticed quite a few crosses with flowers on straight stretches of road. 4. It is considered bad manners to mix vodka or table your shot glass unless it's empty. 5. The nicest beer I ever had the pleasure of drinking was in Russia. It was a Belgian brew and I wish I remembered the brand name. Second, Russia's economy had been in a free-fall from about 1980 to 2000. Living standards had dropped tremendously. Recently, due to oil and gas production, the per GDP has risen noticeably, but the increasing control of Putin over everything reminds me of Venezuela and Iran. It's as Thomas Friedman stated, central controlled one trick pony economies do not develop well (e.g. Iran, Iraq, Nigeria), while diversified ones (e.g. Taiwan, South Korea) do. With the drop in oil prices, Russia's hurting now. While the US, European, and Asian stock markets have dropped tremendously, it's nothing compared to the 75% drop in Russia seen this year. I was last in Russia was in 2004 and the ecconomy seemed to have picked up a lot since when I was first there in 2000, whcih is why I question your assertion that Russia was on the slide. The majority of Russians I've met are very well educated and I definitely got the impression that Russia was recovering nicely from the admittedly rather large hiccup caused by the fall of the Soviet Union. Another few years and oil prices will be higher than ever surely? Third, Russia isn't/can't take care of the relatively few children it does have. According to the Wikipedia article on street children, Russia has 2-4 million (the Russian official number is 700k, but they also state that they do not have an AIDs problem...and 700k isn't peanuts). For a country of 140 million, with about 20 million children, this translates into 10-20% of all children. I never saw any indications of massive child neglect - quite the opposite. Fourth, Russia built its status on military might and international control/influence. The countries behind the Iron Curtain were set up to trade in a way highly favorable to Russia, for example. It was the enemy of the US, and was able to contest the US from Viet Nam to Cuba. Now, its military might is minimal. Its soldiers are experienced, which is worth something, but its equipment is decaying. On paper, it has a tremendous nuclear arsenal, but in reality the launch success rate would be very low. Indeed, in Security Studies, a detailed analysis has concluded that there is a high probability that the US now has a first strike capacity against the Russia (note, the article went on to discuss possible destabilizing results from this, so it wasn't considered a plus for the US in the article). Lets hope the US doesn't attack any else for a while then. Surely with George Bush out it becomes a bit less likely? :-) The Russians easily handled the small country of Georgia. But, based on how it handled that, the Ukraine may give it a decent battle. Star Wars and the Afghanistan war were the beginning of the long slide in military power. I wonder if Afganistan will have that effect on anyone else? Finally, its death rate is about 50% higher than its birth rate. While that is not inherently indicative of dropping out of the first world, the fact remains that it's a dying country, and a dying country that does not take care of its children to boot. If we do find alternatives to expensive ($90/barrel) oil, Russia will have no basis for its economy. At that point, one real geopolitical risk is a strong China will see an empty Russia to its north, with great potential for farming as global warming opens up farming areas. I would have thought that a low birth rate is very very
RE: Russia (Was What is wealth?)
Original Message: - From: Wayne Eddy we...@bigpond.net.au Date: Thu, 18 Dec 2008 06:59:18 +1000 To: brin-l@mccmedia.com Subject: Russia (Was What is wealth?) - Original Message - From: Dan M dsummersmi...@comcast.net To: 'Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion' brin-l@mccmedia.com Sent: Thursday, December 18, 2008 1:34 AM Subject: RE: What is wealth? I didn't see a lot of drunks wandering the streets, but there were a few indications that alcoholism could be a bit of a problem. Well, on average they drink a lot. Averaging over the whole population, we have from http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/health/article1647475.ece A report by Gennadi Onishenko, head of the consumer protection agency, found that Russians drink 15 litres (26 pints) of pure alcohol per year I was last in Russia was in 2004 and the ecconomy seemed to have picked up a lot since when I was first there in 2000, whcih is why I question your assertion that Russia was on the slide. The majority of Russians I've met are very well educated and I definitely got the impression that Russia was recovering nicely from the admittedly rather large hiccup caused by the fall of the Soviet Union. Another few years and oil prices will be higher than ever surely? The last time this happened, it took 20 years until the next oil boom. Again, look at the countries where the ecconomy is all oil. Those with decent sized populations (Venezuala, Iraq, Iran, Nigeria) have not seen the immense foreign currency generated by this wealth trickle down to the average person. The recovery was caused by two things: Putin controlling the mob so businessmen knew who to bribe, and the rise in fuel costs. But, the last 4 years, as he consolidated his power, he also concentrated the wealthI don't think anyone would argue that Russia is not a more autocratic country than it was even 4 years ago. These types of countries rarely have well off citizens. I never saw any indications of massive child neglect - quite the opposite. OK, then the quesiton becomes why do NGOs report it as massive, and even the government report it as quite large. Lets hope the US doesn't attack any else for a while then. Surely with George Bush out it becomes a bit less likely? :-) It depends on the security needs of the US. Obama was clear that he would raise the troop levels in Afganistan. Gates seems to have his head on straight, arguing for soft forces to follow troops in because the US otherwise lost the ground it won as soon as the troops left. I, among many others, argued against going into Iraq, because I thought we would bumble it.although even I didn't guess the magnitude of the incompetence of those involved. But, with Gates and Petreus, we have had very competent leadership, and things are far better now than they were in '06, or '02 in Iraq. Whether they will stay that way after we leave is a good question the answer to which no-one knows, but right now there are far fewer violent deaths than there were 7 years ago. I wonder if Afganistan will have that effect on anyone else? Very unlikely. If you look at 'Nam for the US and Afganistan for the USSR, both were quagmires, but the US managed to grow its GDP 30% in the '70s and the USSR GDP fell like a rock in the '80s. Right now, the US is spending a fraction of the GDP it spent on arms in the '60s, our biggest growth years. I would have thought that a low birth rate is very very good evidence of being part of the first world. It does have that in common with the first world. But, the life expectancy of both men and women in every age catagory is less than it was 40 years ago. http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/3439671.html Now, I know the Hoover institute is quite conservative, but from what I've heard from knowledgeable sources in the field, the basic demographics are not disputed Things can turn around quickly - look at China - Which took 25 years to turn around, but go ahead. perhaps global warming is just what Russia needs to become a major world power again? With no people? It's not just that the birth rate is low, it's that the death rate is higher than 40 years ago. Germany has a lower birth rate, and it's birth and death rate are close to even. Russia's death rate is about 50% higher than it's birth rate. For a number of reasons, the average, say, 40 year old man has a high hill to climb before he can achieve his father's life expectancy. Something is wrong there. The life expectency for a Russian male is 3 years less than for a male from Bangladesh. Something is terribly wrong there. Dan M. mail2web.com Enhanced email for the mobile individual based on Microsoft® Exchange - http://link.mail2web.com/Personal/EnhancedEmail ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
