----- Original Message ----- From: "Dan M" <[email protected]> To: "'Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion'" <[email protected]> Sent: Thursday, December 18, 2008 1:34 AM Subject: RE: What is wealth?
> It's based on a number of things, but I think the single item that stood > out > for me was the male life expectancy: 59.2 years. 25 years ago, it was > over > 70 years (at least officially). This drop is absolutely amazing. Women > fare much better, average life expectancy is 73.1 years or so, but this > high > death rate among men indicates a tremendous, debilitating underlying > problem. Alcoholism gets most of the blame here, but that level of > alcoholism is truly staggering. I have visited Russia a few times & Ukraine once. I didn't see a lot of drunks wandering the streets, but there were a few indications that alcoholism could be a bit of a problem. 1. Beer is not really considered to be alcohol, in Ukraine in particular it was dirt cheap & available in nearly every shop. 2. In Russia, in Volgograd in 2000 at least, it was possibile to go to a bar with an empty soft drink bottle and get it filled with beer. Actuallly, I was impressed with this as being very environmentally friendly. :-) 3. I noticed quite a few crosses with flowers on straight stretches of road. 4. It is considered bad manners to mix vodka or table your shot glass unless it's empty. 5. The nicest beer I ever had the pleasure of drinking was in Russia. It was a Belgian brew and I wish I remembered the brand name. > Second, Russia's economy had been in a free-fall from about 1980 to 2000. > Living standards had dropped tremendously. Recently, due to oil and gas > production, the per GDP has risen noticeably, but the increasing control > of > Putin over everything reminds me of Venezuela and Iran. It's as Thomas > Friedman stated, central controlled one trick pony economies do not > develop > well (e.g. Iran, Iraq, Nigeria), while diversified ones (e.g. Taiwan, > South > Korea) do. With the drop in oil prices, Russia's hurting now. While the > US, European, and Asian stock markets have dropped tremendously, it's > nothing compared to the 75% drop in Russia seen this year. I was last in Russia was in 2004 and the ecconomy seemed to have picked up a lot since when I was first there in 2000, whcih is why I question your assertion that Russia was on the slide. The majority of Russians I've met are very well educated and I definitely got the impression that Russia was recovering nicely from the admittedly rather large hiccup caused by the fall of the Soviet Union. Another few years and oil prices will be higher than ever surely? > Third, Russia isn't/can't take care of the relatively few children it does > have. According to the Wikipedia article on street children, Russia has > 2-4 > million (the Russian official number is 700k, but they also state that > they > do not have an AIDs problem...and 700k isn't peanuts). For a country of > 140 > million, with about 20 million children, this translates into 10-20% of > all > children. I never saw any indications of massive child neglect - quite the opposite. > Fourth, Russia built its status on military might and international > control/influence. The countries behind the Iron Curtain were set up to > trade in a way highly favorable to Russia, for example. It was the enemy > of > the US, and was able to contest the US from Viet Nam to Cuba. > > Now, its military might is minimal. Its soldiers are experienced, which > is > worth something, but its equipment is decaying. On paper, it has a > tremendous nuclear arsenal, but in reality the launch success rate would > be > very low. Indeed, in Security Studies, a detailed analysis has concluded > that there is a high probability that the US now has a first strike > capacity > against the Russia (note, the article went on to discuss possible > destabilizing results from this, so it wasn't considered a plus for the US > in the article). Lets hope the US doesn't attack any else for a while then. Surely with George Bush out it becomes a bit less likely? :-) > The Russians easily handled the small country of Georgia. But, based on > how > it handled that, the Ukraine may give it a decent battle. Star Wars and > the > Afghanistan war were the beginning of the long slide in military power. I wonder if Afganistan will have that effect on anyone else? > Finally, its death rate is about 50% higher than its birth rate. While > that > is not inherently indicative of dropping out of the first world, the fact > remains that it's a dying country, and a dying country that does not take > care of its children to boot. If we do find alternatives to expensive > (>$90/barrel) oil, Russia will have no basis for its economy. At that > point, one real geopolitical risk is a strong China will see an empty > Russia > to its north, with great potential for farming as global warming opens up > farming areas. I would have thought that a low birth rate is very very good evidence of being part of the first world. Things can turn around quickly - look at China - perhaps global warming is just what Russia needs to become a major world power again? Regards, Wayne Eddy _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
