Re: On the Housing Market
In a message dated 2/25/2009 9:00:34 P.M. US Mountain Standard Time, db...@sbcglobal.net writes: Alas, both versions came through. Nick, have we run out of solutions here? david ...with no Re grets? What is a gret anyway? **A Good Credit Score is 700 or Above. See yours in just 2 easy steps! (http://pr.atwola.com/promoclk/100126575x1218822736x1201267884/aol?redir=http:%2F%2Fwww.freecreditreport.com%2Fpm%2Fdefault.aspx%3Fsc%3D668072%26hmpgID %3D62%26bcd%3DfebemailfooterNO62) ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On the Housing Market
Alas, both versions came through. Nick, have we run out of solutions here? david From: David Brin To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion Sent: Wednesday, February 25, 2009 7:58:46 PM Subject: On the Housing Market Testing without "Re:" From: Rceeberger To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion Sent: Wednesday, February 25, 2009 6:25:30 PM Subject: RE: On the Housing Market On 2/24/2009 11:22:40 PM, Dan M (dsummersmi...@comcast.net) wrote: > > Thanks John! > > Those were pretty much the kinds of arguments I was seeing in 2006-2007 > > that > > made me anticipate the bubble bursting. > > Do you see the correction lasting 12 - 18 months or perhaps longer? > > > I > won't argue with the basic premise, because I saw it too...especially for > the coasts, NV, etc, Sure, those areas were what tipped me off that something was up, though to be honest, I anticipated the bubble bursting only in the highly priced areas with the rest of the country riding it out mostly unmolested. I saw the loan problems as being a parallel situation and never expected such a dramatic implosion. > but I have found that it is more expensive to live in a > 1350 sq. foot apartment that's > not as nice as my house than it would be if I > bought my old 2950 sq. foot house at the price I sold it, paid 20% down, > and > lost the interest on the down payment money. This figures in all the > costs > of maintenance, the but not the 400 sq. foot of storage for furniture > and > books and stuff that we are storing until we move to wherever Teri gets a > call. Down on the far south side of town, also on the pricey side of real estate, 1000 sq ft runs $800 - $1000 depending on how nice the appointments are. Of course there is a price level above and one below, depending on ones income bracket. > > On the whole, up on the north side of Houston, > it's cheaper per sq. ft. per > year to own than to rent. I think that's > very unusual for the US, so I > think Houston is just below the live because of expensive downtown > rentalsif we weren't hoping to leave soon, it wouldn't make sense to > rent. > Right now houses in Clear Lake are quite inexpensive. Prices are way down from 2005 levels. 10 - 20 percent in many cases. When I was first recognizing the bubble, I noticed a lot of billboards advertizing homes in the 400-500K range and I wondered who in the hell were buying these homes. I still have no idea. For John, one of the better real estate sites I visit is HAR.com xponent Da Moneez Maru rob ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On the Housing Market
I'm testing by replying once with "Re: in the subject line and once without. If only the "Re:" comes to me, then we have a PARTIAL version of the old method, and I'll ask that folks remove "Re:" unless they seriously want my attention. (The old "Re: Brin:" was better) If I get both, then another solution is needed. thrive all! d From: Rceeberger To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion Sent: Wednesday, February 25, 2009 6:25:30 PM Subject: RE: On the Housing Market On 2/24/2009 11:22:40 PM, Dan M (dsummersmi...@comcast.net) wrote: > > Thanks John! > > Those were pretty much the kinds of arguments I was seeing in 2006-2007 > > that > > made me anticipate the bubble bursting. > > Do you see the correction lasting 12 - 18 months or perhaps longer? > > > I > won't argue with the basic premise, because I saw it too...especially for > the coasts, NV, etc, Sure, those areas were what tipped me off that something was up, though to be honest, I anticipated the bubble bursting only in the highly priced areas with the rest of the country riding it out mostly unmolested. I saw the loan problems as being a parallel situation and never expected such a dramatic implosion. > but I have found that it is more expensive to live in a > 1350 sq. foot apartment that's > not as nice as my house than it would be if I > bought my old 2950 sq. foot house at the price I sold it, paid 20% down, > and > lost the interest on the down payment money. This figures in all the > costs > of maintenance, the but not the 400 sq. foot of storage for furniture > and > books and stuff that we are storing until we move to wherever Teri gets a > call. Down on the far south side of town, also on the pricey side of real estate, 1000 sq ft runs $800 - $1000 depending on how nice the appointments are. Of course there is a price level above and one below, depending on ones income bracket. > > On the whole, up on the north side of Houston, > it's cheaper per sq. ft. per > year to own than to rent. I think that's > very unusual for the US, so I > think Houston is just below the live because of expensive downtown > rentalsif we weren't hoping to leave soon, it wouldn't make sense to > rent. > Right now houses in Clear Lake are quite inexpensive. Prices are way down from 2005 levels. 10 - 20 percent in many cases. When I was first recognizing the bubble, I noticed a lot of billboards advertizing homes in the 400-500K range and I wondered who in the hell were buying these homes. I still have no idea. For John, one of the better real estate sites I visit is HAR.com xponent Da Moneez Maru rob ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: On the Housing Market
On 2/24/2009 11:22:40 PM, Dan M (dsummersmi...@comcast.net) wrote: > Thanks John! > Those were pretty much the kinds of arguments I was seeing in 2006-2007 > that > made me anticipate the bubble bursting. > Do you see the correction lasting 12 - 18 months or perhaps longer? I won't argue with the basic premise, because I saw it too...especially for the coasts, NV, etc, Sure, those areas were what tipped me off that something was up, though to be honest, I anticipated the bubble bursting only in the highly priced areas with the rest of the country riding it out mostly unmolested. I saw the loan problems as being a parallel situation and never expected such a dramatic implosion. but I have found that it is more expensive to live in a 1350 sq. foot apartment that's not as nice as my house than it would be if I bought my old 2950 sq. foot house at the price I sold it, paid 20% down, and lost the interest on the down payment money. This figures in all the costs of maintenance, the but not the 400 sq. foot of storage for furniture and books and stuff that we are storing until we move to wherever Teri gets a call. Down on the far south side of town, also on the pricey side of real estate, 1000 sq ft runs $800 - $1000 depending on how nice the appointments are. Of course there is a price level above and one below, depending on ones income bracket. On the whole, up on the north side of Houston, it's cheaper per sq. ft. per year to own than to rent. I think that's very unusual for the US, so I think Houston is just below the live because of expensive downtown rentalsif we weren't hoping to leave soon, it wouldn't make sense to rent. Right now houses in Clear Lake are quite inexpensive. Prices are way down from 2005 levels. 10 - 20 percent in many cases. When I was first recognizing the bubble, I noticed a lot of billboards advertizing homes in the 400-500K range and I wondered who in the hell were buying these homes. I still have no idea. For John, one of the better real estate sites I visit is HAR.com xponent Da Moneez Maru rob ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On the Housing Market
On Tue, Feb 24, 2009 at 9:22 PM, Dan M > On the whole, up on the north side of Houston, it's cheaper per sq. ft. per > year to own than to rent. Dallas seems to have had little, if any, real estate bubble. It has the lowest peak to current price decline (9%) of any of the 20 cities tracked by the Case-Shiller index: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/02/case-shiller-house-prices-decline.html If Houston is similar to Dallas, then it probably does not make sense to talk about a bubble in Houston. Nevertheless, it would have been more interesting to make your price to rent comparison a few years ago. As you can see in the link I posted previously, the price to rent ratios in the country as a whole have come down a lot recently, making the buy or rent decision closer. The ratios appear to still be somewhat elevated, but only by perhaps 10 or 20% above a long-run trend. I took a look at realtor.com for Houston (although I am not familiar with the area) and it looks like a typical single family home, about 2000 sq ft, rents for about $1000 per month. A similar home costs about $120K, so a 30 yr 6% mortgage with 20% down would be around $600/mo. So anyone looking to live in the area I was browsing, for more than a year or two, would probably want to buy. Especially considering the government's ill-conceived tax credit for first-time buyers this year (heads up to anyone interested: it ends Dec 1, 2009 not December 31). ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: On the Housing Market
> Thanks John! > Those were pretty much the kinds of arguments I was seeing in 2006-2007 > that > made me anticipate the bubble bursting. > Do you see the correction lasting 12 - 18 months or perhaps longer? I won't argue with the basic premise, because I saw it too...especially for the coasts, NV, etc, but I have found that it is more expensive to live in a 1350 sq. foot apartment that's not as nice as my house than it would be if I bought my old 2950 sq. foot house at the price I sold it, paid 20% down, and lost the interest on the down payment money. This figures in all the costs of maintenance, the but not the 400 sq. foot of storage for furniture and books and stuff that we are storing until we move to wherever Teri gets a call. On the whole, up on the north side of Houston, it's cheaper per sq. ft. per year to own than to rent. I think that's very unusual for the US, so I think Houston is just below the live because of expensive downtown rentalsif we weren't hoping to leave soon, it wouldn't make sense to rent. Dan M. ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On the Housing Market
On 2/24/2009 1:05:34 PM, John Williams (jwilliams4...@gmail.com) wrote: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/02/house-prices-real-prices-price- to-rent.html Thanks John! Those were pretty much the kinds of arguments I was seeing in 2006-2007 that made me anticipate the bubble bursting. Do you see the correction lasting 12 - 18 months or perhaps longer? xponent A Question Of Balance Maru rob ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On the Housing Market
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/02/house-prices-real-prices-price-to-rent.html ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On the Housing Market
On Mon, Feb 23, 2009 at 6:50 AM, dsummersmi...@comcast.net < dsummersmi...@comcast.net> wrote: > > > The bubble was that clear, particularly where housing prices skyrocketed up > on the coasts, in NV, etc. There is no way that a doubling in price is > anything but a bubble. What's your definition of a bubble? Artificially inflated prices (not related to supply and demand)? A large price increase that is sure to correct? It seems like a mushy term. I'm asking not to argue, but to get at what this really means. There is no doubt, is there, that sometimes prices (of some things, at least) shoot up for legitimate reasons. When we get a sharp rise followed by a sharp correction, we can point backwards and say "Bubble!" But how do we know that a doubling in price is a bubble unless it is followed by a big correction? Wikipedia: An economic bubble (sometimes referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, or a speculative mania) is "trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably at variance from intrinsic values". Has the real estate volume been high in recent years? Or may that's not the right question - the volume of mortgages certainly has been high, but the price of mortgages hasn't shot up. "Intrinsic values" is a problematic term, since economic value is generally defined in terms of how much of one thing we're willing to give up for another. Apparently people have been willing to give up a lot of money (or do I mean solvency?) for real estate lately. Banks have been, at least. In the stock market, we talk about fundamentals and technical analysis. It seems like fundamentals have been forgotten in the real estate market... such as the relationship between rents and valuations, which somebody here, as I recall, pointed out was a pretty good indicator that we were in a bubble. Nick ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On the Housing Market
Original Message: - From: David Hobby hob...@newpaltz.edu Date: Mon, 23 Feb 2009 00:08:53 -0500 To: brin-l@mccmedia.com Subject: Re: On the Housing Market Rceeberger wrote: > http://www.businessinsider.com/the-housing-chart-thats-worth-1000-words-2009 -2 > > > Housing prices may still have a ways to fall. Rob-- >Wow. That's certainly what the chart shows. >Is it really that clear? If it were, you'd >think that enough investors would have bet >against the housing bubble that it never >would have happened. The bubble was that clear, particularly where housing prices skyrocketed up on the coasts, in NV, etc. There is no way that a doubling in price is anything but a bubble. But, the house I sold, I had to put in about $10k of upgrades and sold at about 10k over what I bought (in inflation ajdusted dollars), so the bubble isn't everywhere. But, we're now starting to drop in value as the market dries up. Houses are now much bigger than they were in the '50s, GDP per capita is much higher, etc. So, a rise in inflation adjusted home prices is not inherently inappropriate: one would not expect to pay the same price for a 3000 sq. ft. house as for a 1500 sq. ft. house, especially if the 3000 sq. ft. house is much nicer. The rent vs. own question is still important. Right now, we're living in a 1350 sq. ft. apartment that costs more than our mortgage payments were on our 3000 sq. ft. house. Working it all out, if it wasn't for the value of getting our appreciation while we did and the relative ease of leaving an apartment when Teri got called, it would have been cheaper to stay in the big house, maintaince costs and all. Dan M. So, home prices could now be 10% overvalued. mail2web - Check your email from the web at http://link.mail2web.com/mail2web ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On the Housing Market
Rceeberger wrote: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-housing-chart-thats-worth-1000-words-2009-2 Housing prices may still have a ways to fall. Rob-- Wow. That's certainly what the chart shows. Is it really that clear? If it were, you'd think that enough investors would have bet against the housing bubble that it never would have happened. ---David ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
