Finally a voice of sanity!!!
Henry M. Silvert Ph.D.
Research Statistician
The Conference Board
845 Third Ave.
New York, NY 10022
Phone : (212)339-0438
Fax : (212)836-3825
Email : [EMAIL PROTECTED]
-Original Message-
From: Alan McLean [SMTP:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
Sent: Tuesday, April
In article [EMAIL PROTECTED],
dennis roberts [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
i was not suggesting taking away from our arsenal of tricks ... but, since
i was one of those old guys too ... i am wondering if we were mostly lead
astray ...?
the more i work with statistical methods, the less i see any
a professor thought that he was producing a test of 50 items at 'about the
50%' difficulty level, that is .. on average, the scores would be about
50%. now, he collected data from a random sample of n=40 of his class ...
gave them the test ... and then did a ttest using 25 as the null ... he
In article 007a01bfa1c7$aa97c460$[EMAIL PROTECTED],
David A. Heiser [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Lots of interesting replies.
A. The "community" Denis Roberts refers to wants statistics to tell them
which is better, which of two models is the correct one, how much more will
method B cost me,then
On 11 Apr 2000, Donald F. Burrill wrote:
On Mon, 10 Apr 2000, Bruce Weaver wrote in part, quoting Bob Frick:
-- 8 ---
start quote
To put this argument another way, suppose the question is whether one
variable influences another. This is a
In article 01e301bfa2ee$b69f42b0$[EMAIL PROTECTED],
Robert Dawson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Dennis Roberts asked, imagining a testing-free universe:
what would the vast majority of folks who either do inferential work
and/or
teach it ... DO
what analyses would they be doing? what would
I wrote:
(a) that their discipline ought to be a science;
and Herman Rubin responded:
What is a science? The word means "knowledge".
It did once, and does still in certain uses. I _think_ that everybody
here is aware that the main meaning today is more restricted.
Granted, if they
In article [EMAIL PROTECTED],
Michael Granaas [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
In thinking about my own failure to get students to ask follow up
questions to a null hypothesis test I have formulated a couple of possible
reasons. Let me know what you think.
1. Even when we teach statistics in the
On 10 Apr 2000 14:06:32 -0700, [EMAIL PROTECTED] (dennis roberts)
wrote:
here are a few (fastly found i admit) urls about scientific method ... some
are quite interesting
snip; so that no one might think that I recommend the citations
I saved this note because it had references, but I
In article [EMAIL PROTECTED],
dennis roberts [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
At 01:16 PM 4/10/00 -0300, Robert Dawson wrote:
both leave the listener wondering "why 0.5?" If the only answer is "well,
it was a round number close enough to x bar [or "to my guesstimate before
the experiment"] not to seem
In article 048a01bfa483$85f46280$[EMAIL PROTECTED],
Robert Dawson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Michael Granaas wrote (in part):
The problem is that interval estimation and null hypothesis testing are
seen as distinct species. An interval that includes zero leads to the
same logical problems as
In article [EMAIL PROTECTED],
Michael Granaas [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
On Tue, 11 Apr 2000, Robert Dawson wrote:
.
and Michael Granaas responded
This (point 4) is certainly what we have been lead to believe, but I
question the assumption. Do we not
In article AC09DC4F4DFCD211A83C00805FE6138D369274@NHQJPK1EX2,
Magill, Brett [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Seems to me that hypothesis testing remains an essential step. Take for
instance the following data that I made up just for the purpose of
illustration and the correlation matrix it produces:
it appears to me that we are having the same kinds of discussions on this
topic as usual and we go round and round ... and where we stop depends
on when people get tired of it
is progress being made? i wonder ...
perhaps some of this time would be better spent defining more what a
In article 004101bfa35b$54beb900$[EMAIL PROTECTED],
David A. Heiser [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
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- Original
On Wed, 12 Apr 2000, Robert Dawson wrote:
I'm afraid that I don't follow your definition of a "plausible null".
On the one hand, you say that my value (in the simulation I included) of
102 for the mean IQ of a population is "a priori false"; you then say that
"I like interval
I suspect in this forum, almost as bad as the F-word or N-word are the
DM-words... Data Mining... I agree, but wonder about criteria.
Often in our various research domains we have no choice but to use
retrospective data. A classic example might be validating an investment
approach by
A colleague sent the following to me at work today and after perusal of
various texts (Neter et al, Pedhazur, Cohen, etc.) I am unable to give
anything but an opinion...here is what he sent:
"Can you answer me the following question. It concerns what is the
appropriate standard error (SE)
Some more comments on hypothesis testing:
My impression of the hypothesis test controversy, which seems to exist
primarily in the areas of psychology, education and the like (this is
coming from someone who has been involved in education for all my
working life, but with a
In article [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED]
says...
Can anyone help with good resources on the web, journals, books, etc on
cluster analysis - simularity and ordination. Any recommended programs
for this type of analysis too.
Cheers
Elisa Wood
For a list of cluster analysis programs, go
At 09:30 AM 4/13/00 +1000, Alan McLean wrote:
In the soft sciences it is easy enough to identify a characteristic of
interest
alan makes good points as usual ... but i totally object to the term 'soft'
sciences ...
what does soft imply? that the science is bad ... or, that merely that
Except for posterior probability, none of these are tools
for the actual problems. And posterior probability is not
what is wanted; it is the posterior risk of the procedure.
But even this relies on belief. An approach to rational
behavior makes the prior a weighting measure, without
I will be teaching Time Series and Forecasting (an MBA course) in the Fall.
I am looking for an inexpensive software package that is good for
forecasting. Last year I used Minitab 12 and found it easy-to-use and
accessible to students. It is available on our network with a site license
so we
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