In article <007a01bfa1c7$aa97c460$[EMAIL PROTECTED]>,
David A. Heiser <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>Lots of interesting replies.
>A. The "community" Denis Roberts refers to wants statistics to tell them
>which is better, which of two models is the correct one, how much more will
>method B cost me,then method A, which process do I use that will make me
>more money, which is the best advertisment strategy, which or two positions
>that my candidate can take will get him the most votes, which (of several
>strategies/models) will get me more money when I trade on NASDAQ, what is
>the probability that I can get genome U1 patented, which treatment will get
>patients out of the hospital quicker, etc, etc, etc.
Part of that is because people have been taught that
statistics can give such answers.
>B. Statistics cannot do any of this. It can only tell you what is the
>probability that what you have occured by chance.
It can tell you this for the specific observation, and
in each state of nature.
>C. Whatever you use, hypothesis, confidence intervals posterior probability,
>or any other stat metod are only tools. The bottom line is a probability,
>not a definite answer.
Except for posterior probability, none of these are tools
for the actual problems. And posterior probability is not
what is wanted; it is the posterior risk of the procedure.
But even this relies on belief. An approach to rational
behavior makes the prior a weighting measure, without
ringing in belief. I suggest we keep it this way, and
avoid the philosophical aspects.
>D. The only definate answer is if the result works as intended. Or as Joe
>Ward say's it does a good job of prediction.
>E.The success is a human judgement, which the people in A want a machine and
>software to do, and to be infalable (because human judgement is not).
--
This address is for information only. I do not claim that these views
are those of the Statistics Department or of Purdue University.
Herman Rubin, Dept. of Statistics, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette IN47907-1399
[EMAIL PROTECTED] Phone: (765)494-6054 FAX: (765)494-0558
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