Re: [EVDL] Smaller is not really cheaper (was: Tesla slashes its car prices as much as 20% to prop up sagging sales, where?s the $30K EV? A Chevy Bolt?)

[Ryan Fulcher via EV]

That was a great video from BestInTESLA, great channel.

This goes to the topic of where Tesla may choose to deploy their battery 
capacity which is no longer their "limiting factor"...


In addition to the CyberTruck, or an inexpensive car, there is the Semi, 
and their accompanying Mega Pack which will allow a route location to 
use "Dump Charging" in order to skirt grid peak demand and instead even 
earn money by leveraging stationary storage along with renewables to do 
grid energy arbitrage with the likes of their AutoBidder (Their VPP 
(Virtual Power Plant) AI Software already in production.


Turns out that the Semi and Co-Located Grid Storage with renewables 
might have the larger societal impact than a cheaper BEV for the masses.


Related to lowering the cost for a sedan, do keep in mind that all 
Teslas for the past decade have included their full ADAS (FSD) suite. 
There was another video today (https://youtu.be/Vx-BpSCypjU probably) 
pointing out that Tesla has lost Billions worth of hardware by 
installing this hardware suite in every single car.  Why would they do 
this?  Because it accelerates their ability to both solve FSD and then 
to sell FSD which is a value multiplier for all of those 2+million 
vehicles already deployed.



A similar protip, Paying for YouTube Premium is well worth it
IMHO because it eliminates all advertising and allows for 2x playback.

Another good video: https://youtu.be/DtGQ6KC3t1c
: How the Tesla Semi “Broke the Laws of Physics”
: Channel: The Limiting Factor
:* An EXCELLENT Channel all should watch all Videos.

50,411 views  Jan 23, 2023
When Tesla unveiled their Semi 5 years ago, auto industry was skeptical 
to say the least.  As Daimler put it, Tesla must be defying the laws of 
physics.


In this video we'll look at how the Tesla Semi "Broke the Laws of Physics"

Timeline
00:00 Intro
01:09 Drag Coefficient
02:05 Powertrain
03:31 Tesla’s 20% Advantage
04:36 The Plaid Motor
06:56 The Limiting Factor for Regen
10:53 1000 Volt Triangle
11:49 Summary

Read before commenting on regen and 17% cost advantage:

1) At 12:35 I say that the Semi recaptures 90%.  Obviously this is one 
way efficiency.  The round trip efficiency would be 81% because it has 
to go from battery to wheel and then wheel to battery.  More on this in 
the next video.


2) A lot of people are thinking the 17% cost estimate is mine.  It's 
from Tesla - directly from their unveiling event.  Cleanerwatt did an 
update of this on his channel, go check it out. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIzcaBSFud8=951s


Transcript

0:05 Welcome back everyone!
0:06 I’m Jordan Giesige and this is The Limiting Factor.
0:09 When Tesla unveiled the Semi 5 years ago, the auto industry was 
skeptical to say the

0:14 least.
0:15 As Daimler put it, Tesla must be defying the laws of physics.
0:18 With the Tesla semi now on the road reaching 500 miles of range, 
clearly no new physics

0:24 are required.
0:25 However, this begs the question.
0:26 “Why did so many people assume that the Tesla Semi was just smoke 
and mirrors?”

0:31 In short, it was a failure of imagination.
0:33 There were of course the obvious opportunities to improve 
efficiency, like the aerodynamics
0:38 of the Semi or ensuring that energy is used efficiently throughout 
the powertrain.
0:43 But, there are also some non-obvious opportunities, like synergies 
between triple plaid motor
0:48 powertrain and the 900kWh battery pack that Tesla didn’t talk about 
in the Semi Delivery

0:54 Event.
0:55 Before we begin, a special thanks to my Patreon supporters and 
YouTube members.
1:00 This is the support that gives me the freedom to avoid chasing the 
algorithm and sponsors.

1:05 As always, the links for support are in the description.
1:09 To kick things off, let’s start with the obvious reasons why the 
Tesla Semi was able

1:13 to achieve 500 miles of range, then we’ll get into the not so obvious.
1:17 Most people know that the Tesla Semi has a drag coefficient that’s 
almost half that

1:22 of a diesel Semi and even better than a Bugatti supercar.
1:25 A drag coefficient is simply a measure of how efficiently an object 
moves through the

1:30 air.
1:31 Lower resistance means greater efficiency and therefore range.
1:34 However, it doesn’t take into account the amount of air that the 
object displaces.

1:39 Greater surface also increases total drag.
1:42 Therefore, although it’s cool that the Semi has a slicker 
aerodynamic shape than the Bugatti,

1:47 it’s not the best comparison because the Bugatti is so much smaller.
1:51 The better comparison is the diesel truck, which has a much higher 
drag coefficient and

1:56 has a similar surface area to the Tesla Semi.
1:58 We’ll take a look at how the Tesla Semi compares to other electric 
Semis later in

2:03 the video.
2:04 Next, the powertrain.
2:06 A typical electric vehicle has a roughly 86% battery to wheel 
efficiency.
2:11 Roughly 5% of the energy is lost in the battery itself due to 

Re: [EVDL] Smaller is not really cheaper (was: Tesla slashes its car prices as much as 20% to prop up sagging sales, where?s the $30K EV? A Chevy Bolt?)

[(-Phil-) via EV]

FYI, I just watch all videos at 2x, use ad blockers and sponsor skippers,
and find it a great way to get the info w/o spending a lot of time, but
there's another instant way to turn the video into text you can read:
https://anthiago.com/transcript/

Here's the output, although without the on-screen graphics it's really hard
to follow:
foreign [Music] Tesla Tesla has just surprised the whole car industry with
their price Cuts but some people mistakenly think this is out of a demand
problem but Tesla reduce and prices is an offensive move not a defensive
one because Tesla is cutting prices so much that no one can really copy it
without losing a lot of money this is not just to get a bigger addressable
Market but they will because then they would usually drop the prices slower
to see when demand picks up but Tesla dropped the prices from 6 to 20
percent and as I made a video about a couple of days ago Tesla will
probably still have about 20 cross margin on their Automotive business
because of all the things they have going on if you haven't seen that video
already you should probably check that one out first but at the same time
no one else is making money on EVS they're losing money maybe except byd
having a tiny bit of profits both Volkswagen and 4 have said this
themselves so they can't just lower the price ten thousand dollars because
that means they will lose ten thousand Dollars More on their EVS they sell
and at the same time they want to scale up production of their EVS so this
is not a good timing for them but as I will show in this video they are no
longer competition to Tesla if they don't drop their prices so tests that
just started a price War where the others don't even have a weapon to fire
this was already over so let's check it all out and let's Dive Right In
foreign [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Applause] [Music] so with this move of
cutting the prizes by this much they don't just shook the whole car
industry but also increase their addressable Market by a crazy amount
Tesla's addressable Market just for the model y just went up from maybe
five percent to 15 according to the arc invest model here tripling their
addressable market and the cheapest Tesla Model 3 is now in the range of 20
to 25 percent of the entire addressable Market in the US so no Tesla did
not have to come up with a new model to get into a bigger Market they just
cut the prices and tripled and quadrupled their addressable market and by
doing so catching the car industry by surprise but remember the average car
price in the US in 2022 was 49 500 so many of Tesla's cars are actually
below this average cell own price in the U.S but the Tesla is not an
average car but this is making the tester suddenly a competitor not just to
the EVS but against the ice cars and I also think this is a big blow to the
used ice car market as well speeding up the EV adoption even faster as
Tesla is forcing everyone else to follow them and this is a good thing for
the EB Revolution as a Danish motorist organization has also been out
saying and this will also lower the prices of the used car market which
have Skyrocket over the last couple of years because just think about it EV
adoption is growing exponentially right now here in Europe most people want
the Navy we are going from the early adapters to the early majority here so
tell me who in their rightful mind would buy something like this this is a
used a used BMW X3 you can buy here in my country it's a diesel version
that does a zero to 100 kilometers an hour in 9.7 seconds it has already
been driven 128 000 kilometers and only have a 550 liters of trunk and this
is what it looks like inside a real modern Blackberry right but this used
thing here caught about 15 000 more than the brand spanking new model y
standard range that is Created from zero to 100 kilometers and have 200
liters more of cargo space and look like this inside who in their rightful
mind would choose this polluting old used diesel car which value is now
going to drop out of the sky and BMWs are some of the most expensive cars
on the market to maintain as well over this brand spanking new Tesla Model
y made in Germany that is one of the cheapest car to maintain on the market
and yes it does of course get even worse if we look at the BMW X3 from new
its starting price is about 55 000 more expensive than the Tesla Model y
you could get the model 3 standard range and the model y standard range for
the same price of this new diesel car are you kidding me you have to be
mentally insane to buy this over a Tesla that doesn't pollute the air
around you and your children and is much safer and is fully charged every
morning you wake up you don't have to go to The Filling Station anymore
except when you're on a road trip and that is the starting price you can of
course choose the best version of the X3 but then you can get a performance
model Y and a performance model 3 at the same time for the same price as
this one diesel car this is 

Re: [EVDL] Smaller is not really cheaper (was: Tesla slashes its car prices as much as 20% to prop up sagging sales, where?s the $30K EV? A Chevy Bolt?)

[Peri Hartman via EV]

Kindly summarize. At least for me, I will not spend the time to watch a 
video.

Peri

<< Annoyed by leaf blowers ? https://quietcleanseattle.org/ >>

-- Original Message --
From: "(-Phil-)" 
To: "Electric Vehicle Discussion List" 
Cc: "Peri Hartman" 
Sent: 22-Jan-23 13:16:12
Subject: Re: [EVDL] Smaller is not really cheaper (was: Tesla slashes 
its car prices as much as 20% to prop up sagging sales, where?s the $30K 
EV? A Chevy Bolt?)


This video explains something I hadn't considered about Tesla's 
strategy on the price cuts:

https://youtu.be/7ufNDm9hNXU

On Sun, Jan 22, 2023 at 7:32 AM Peri Hartman via EV  
wrote:
A heavier car will require a larger battery for an equivalent range, 
but

I think that is over played.

If you are concerned about city range, with lots of starts and stops,
your battery range will be chewed up badly by a heavier car. But the
real need for long range is freeway driving. And, there, if you drive
reasonably carefully, acceleration and deceleration affect range
minimally. The biggest factor is, of course, aero drag, where weight
doesn't factor in at all. Rolling resistance does increase with 
weight,

but I don't think it's increase plays a significant role.

Another factor is the time spent driving the car. For city driving,
speeds are slow and, yet, the HVAC system is consuming energy as well 
as

all the other non traction activities. On the freeway, for the same
amount of distance traveled, those non traction loads are cut
dramatically, e.g. by a third if your average freeway speed is  60 mph
and avg city 20.

In other words, for a US consumer, EV range is all about the battery
size, not about the vehicle weight.

So, getting back to the cost of a luxury EV: here I'm just speculating
and have no facts. Unlike an ICE car, the battery is by far the most
expensive component of the car. An ICE vehicle has no comparable high
cost element. So, to build an EV with adequate freeway range, at least
for the US market, it takes a pretty expensive battery. That eats into
profits. The best way to recoup those profits is to dress the car up 
and

sell it as luxury.

Someone posted that they question whether any of the traditional auto
makers are making a profit on their EVs. If that's the case, imagine 
if

they tried to sell a trimmed down EV with still an appealing amount of
EV range. Financial disaster.

As battery prices come down, the EV "economy" cars will appear.

Peri

<< Annoyed by leaf blowers ? https://quietcleanseattle.org/ >>

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Re: [EVDL] Smaller is not really cheaper (was: Tesla slashes its car prices as much as 20% to prop up sagging sales, where?s the $30K EV? A Chevy Bolt?)

[(-Phil-) via EV]

This video explains something I hadn't considered about Tesla's strategy on
the price cuts:
https://youtu.be/7ufNDm9hNXU

On Sun, Jan 22, 2023 at 7:32 AM Peri Hartman via EV 
wrote:

> A heavier car will require a larger battery for an equivalent range, but
> I think that is over played.
>
> If you are concerned about city range, with lots of starts and stops,
> your battery range will be chewed up badly by a heavier car. But the
> real need for long range is freeway driving. And, there, if you drive
> reasonably carefully, acceleration and deceleration affect range
> minimally. The biggest factor is, of course, aero drag, where weight
> doesn't factor in at all. Rolling resistance does increase with weight,
> but I don't think it's increase plays a significant role.
>
> Another factor is the time spent driving the car. For city driving,
> speeds are slow and, yet, the HVAC system is consuming energy as well as
> all the other non traction activities. On the freeway, for the same
> amount of distance traveled, those non traction loads are cut
> dramatically, e.g. by a third if your average freeway speed is  60 mph
> and avg city 20.
>
> In other words, for a US consumer, EV range is all about the battery
> size, not about the vehicle weight.
>
> So, getting back to the cost of a luxury EV: here I'm just speculating
> and have no facts. Unlike an ICE car, the battery is by far the most
> expensive component of the car. An ICE vehicle has no comparable high
> cost element. So, to build an EV with adequate freeway range, at least
> for the US market, it takes a pretty expensive battery. That eats into
> profits. The best way to recoup those profits is to dress the car up and
> sell it as luxury.
>
> Someone posted that they question whether any of the traditional auto
> makers are making a profit on their EVs. If that's the case, imagine if
> they tried to sell a trimmed down EV with still an appealing amount of
> EV range. Financial disaster.
>
> As battery prices come down, the EV "economy" cars will appear.
>
> Peri
>
> << Annoyed by leaf blowers ? https://quietcleanseattle.org/ >>
>
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Re: [EVDL] Smaller is not really cheaper (was: Tesla slashes its car prices as much as 20% to prop up sagging sales, where?s the $30K EV? A Chevy Bolt?)

[Peri Hartman via EV]

A heavier car will require a larger battery for an equivalent range, but 
I think that is over played.


If you are concerned about city range, with lots of starts and stops, 
your battery range will be chewed up badly by a heavier car. But the 
real need for long range is freeway driving. And, there, if you drive 
reasonably carefully, acceleration and deceleration affect range 
minimally. The biggest factor is, of course, aero drag, where weight 
doesn't factor in at all. Rolling resistance does increase with weight, 
but I don't think it's increase plays a significant role.


Another factor is the time spent driving the car. For city driving, 
speeds are slow and, yet, the HVAC system is consuming energy as well as 
all the other non traction activities. On the freeway, for the same 
amount of distance traveled, those non traction loads are cut 
dramatically, e.g. by a third if your average freeway speed is  60 mph 
and avg city 20.


In other words, for a US consumer, EV range is all about the battery 
size, not about the vehicle weight.


So, getting back to the cost of a luxury EV: here I'm just speculating 
and have no facts. Unlike an ICE car, the battery is by far the most 
expensive component of the car. An ICE vehicle has no comparable high 
cost element. So, to build an EV with adequate freeway range, at least 
for the US market, it takes a pretty expensive battery. That eats into 
profits. The best way to recoup those profits is to dress the car up and 
sell it as luxury.


Someone posted that they question whether any of the traditional auto 
makers are making a profit on their EVs. If that's the case, imagine if 
they tried to sell a trimmed down EV with still an appealing amount of 
EV range. Financial disaster.


As battery prices come down, the EV "economy" cars will appear.

Peri

<< Annoyed by leaf blowers ? https://quietcleanseattle.org/ >>

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Re: [EVDL] Smaller is not really cheaper (was: Tesla slashes its car prices as much as 20% to prop up sagging sales, where?s the $30K EV? A Chevy Bolt?)

[Lawrence Winiarski via EV]

Sure, I mostly agree, but EV's do change that more than ICE, because with a car 
and a given range and given wind resistance, the larger car will take 
significantly more batteries to achieve the same range, and since batteries are 
a major expense and more a commoditiy, it does cost significantly more to make 
a larger EV  (if you want the same range)


 

On Sunday, January 22, 2023, 12:57:48 AM PST, Bill Dube via EV 
 wrote:  
 
 Labor is the main expense in car manufacture. Materials for a larger 
vehicle add only an incremental cost. Luxury options cost just a tiny 
faction of what they consumer pays for them. It is not uncommon that the 
luxury option is just a change to the firmware and the additional cost 
to the manufacturer is actually zero.

This is why there has always been a push for larger cars and SUV's. 
Larger = more profits.

If you consider that all cars, regardless of size, have just four 
wheels, four brakes, four tires, one engine, one steering wheel, one 
engine management computer, etc. The labor is the same to assemble, not 
matter what size the car is. As the car grows in size, it is a larger 
shell of the same thickness, but the extra internal volume is air. The 
materials scale with the surface area, and not the volume. People are 
willing to pay considerably more a larger car, but they cost close to 
the same to manufacture.

You perceive that you are buying a bigger banana, but you are in reality 
just buying a bigger banana peel. The edible/nutritious/useful portion 
is unchanged.

People buy cars for emotional reasons, not for practical reasons. The 
automakers exploit that. Why wouldn't they?


Bill D.


On 1/21/2023 12:54 PM, Lee Hart via EV wrote:
> Lawrence Rhodes via EV wrote:
>> I keep hearing that Tesla might introduce a smaller, cheaper EV.  
>> That would
>> open up EVs to a wider range of drivers, but would also cut into their
>> profits.
>
> I continue to wonder why a smaller cheaper car would mean lower 
> profits. It seems like there are endless examples of cars (and many 
> other products) where profits *increased* when cheaper versions were 
> produced in higher volumes.
>
> A smaller car uses less materials, so can be cheaper to produce.
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[EVDL] Smaller is not really cheaper (was: Tesla slashes its car prices as much as 20% to prop up sagging sales, where?s the $30K EV? A Chevy Bolt?)

[Bill Dube via EV]

Labor is the main expense in car manufacture. Materials for a larger 
vehicle add only an incremental cost. Luxury options cost just a tiny 
faction of what they consumer pays for them. It is not uncommon that the 
luxury option is just a change to the firmware and the additional cost 
to the manufacturer is actually zero.


This is why there has always been a push for larger cars and SUV's. 
Larger = more profits.


If you consider that all cars, regardless of size, have just four 
wheels, four brakes, four tires, one engine, one steering wheel, one 
engine management computer, etc. The labor is the same to assemble, not 
matter what size the car is. As the car grows in size, it is a larger 
shell of the same thickness, but the extra internal volume is air. The 
materials scale with the surface area, and not the volume. People are 
willing to pay considerably more a larger car, but they cost close to 
the same to manufacture.


You perceive that you are buying a bigger banana, but you are in reality 
just buying a bigger banana peel. The edible/nutritious/useful portion 
is unchanged.


People buy cars for emotional reasons, not for practical reasons. The 
automakers exploit that. Why wouldn't they?



Bill D.


On 1/21/2023 12:54 PM, Lee Hart via EV wrote:

Lawrence Rhodes via EV wrote:
I keep hearing that Tesla might introduce a smaller, cheaper EV.  
That would

open up EVs to a wider range of drivers, but would also cut into their
profits.


I continue to wonder why a smaller cheaper car would mean lower 
profits. It seems like there are endless examples of cars (and many 
other products) where profits *increased* when cheaper versions were 
produced in higher volumes.


A smaller car uses less materials, so can be cheaper to produce.

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