Re: [EVDL] virtual power plant (waiting for better...)
The #1 problem with progress in Solar, and EV’s and just about everything to reduce our future problems with emissions is the phrase “Im waiting for better batteries, higher solar efficiencies…, etc” Which is crazy. The batteries we have today for EV’s are perfectly adequate to meet 90% of our driving needs. If you are in that 90%, why wait? But the really crazy one is “waiting for solar”. Every day you wait (at $100/mo electric bill) is $1200/year lost. One might think I might lament my first array I bought at $4/w back in 2010 compared to the ones I buy now at $1/W today. Nope. The ones I bought in 2010 have already paid for themselves, and I have 5 years of carbon free electricity to show for it too!. No matter how much solar panels cost “now” (whenever now is), You only lose money by waiting for prices to go down “next year”.. Do the math. Bob, WB4APR *From:* Michael Ross [mailto:michael.e.r...@gmail.com] *Sent:* Tuesday, May 05, 2015 9:54 AM *To:* Robert Bruninga; Electric Vehicle Discussion List *Subject:* Re: [EVDL] virtual power plant Even at 3% per year, by the end of 20 years, that 9.7 cents will be 18 cents. Yes, that is a personal justification for the financial investment. In 20 years at 3% a kWh will be less here than it is in Connecticut today. Much as I want to whine about Duke Progress, one result of their intransigence, micromanagement, and attachment to nukes is a low cost of power - very low. We have to weigh that against poisoned aquifers and ground water. On Tue, May 5, 2015 at 9:43 AM, Robert Bruninga via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: I ... put up... PV to max out the... tax credits. If I am lucky it will return 7% to 9%, but Duke [utility]doesn't see it the way I do... [their] rate is 9.7cents a kWh You have to abhor cracked atoms, heavy water out the yingyang and arsenic laced coal ash ponds to find much justification for residential PV here. To me that is the #1 justification. How can I in good conscience keep burning and polluting the planet of my kids? And secondly, the 9.7 cents is not going to stay constant. Your solar costs are done. Free now forever. But the utility will always go up. Even at 3% per year, by the end of 20 years, that 9.7 cents will be 18 cents. Bob On Mon, May 4, 2015 at 7:25 PM, Ben Goren via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: On May 4, 2015, at 4:15 PM, Cor van de Water via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: Again, the most optimal case would be that you can shift the full 10kWh each day, which would yield $2.60 per day or $950 per year. In 10 years that would give you $9,500 which is about the money you invested in a 10kW system, 10 years earlier so this would give you a zero-percent investment with risks. Not good. Actually...a ten-year payoff is about a 7% annual rate of return, which is really rather good. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_72 A ten-year payoff means that you've doubled your money over the course of ten years. 70 / 10 = 7%. (That of course assumes the battery is still worth $10K at the end, and so on. I've still found the Rule of 70 to be a rather useful tool for doing this kind of financial analysis...anything with a ten-year or better payoff is almost always something you should seriously consider leaping at, if you've got the capital to spare. You'll have less money in your pocket, yes, but your expenses will be dramatically lowered giving you a lot more financial flexibility and security.) b ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA ( http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) -- To invent, you need a good imagination and a pile of junk. Thomas A. Edison http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/t/thomasaed125362.html A public-opinion poll is no substitute for thought. *Warren Buffet* Michael E. Ross (919) 585-6737 Land (919) 576-0824 https://www.google.com/voice/b/0?pli=1#phones Google Phone (919) 631-1451 Cell michael.e.r...@gmail.com michael.e.r...@gmail.com -- next part -- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20150504/3c4a08 5b/attachment.htm ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA ( http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) -- To invent, you need a good imagination and a pile of junk. *Thomas A. Edison http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/t/thomasaed125362.html* A public-opinion poll is no substitute for
Re: [EVDL] virtual power plant (waiting for better...)
Bob, I am with you - PV makes sense with good subsidies. But most people can't afford it, or do not have the credit to get it. I did it, knowing I could make more simply investing in a total stock market fund. Without the tax credits I would not have done it; the payback would have been approaching 20 - 25 years. I vote for people that promote such things so I can do my own part without breaking the bank. But the truth is, most families cannot afford to do it out side of creative financing like SolarCity. Utilities like Duke works hard not to lose their market share. Their biggest weapon is not overcharging residential customers, and lobbying against third party sales. Competition is working to this extent. On Tue, May 5, 2015 at 10:37 AM, Robert Bruninga via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: The #1 problem with progress in Solar, and EV’s and just about everything to reduce our future problems with emissions is the phrase “Im waiting for better batteries, higher solar efficiencies…, etc” Which is crazy. The batteries we have today for EV’s are perfectly adequate to meet 90% of our driving needs. If you are in that 90%, why wait? But the really crazy one is “waiting for solar”. Every day you wait (at $100/mo electric bill) is $1200/year lost. One might think I might lament my first array I bought at $4/w back in 2010 compared to the ones I buy now at $1/W today. Nope. The ones I bought in 2010 have already paid for themselves, and I have 5 years of carbon free electricity to show for it too!. No matter how much solar panels cost “now” (whenever now is), You only lose money by waiting for prices to go down “next year”.. Do the math. Bob, WB4APR *From:* Michael Ross [mailto:michael.e.r...@gmail.com] *Sent:* Tuesday, May 05, 2015 9:54 AM *To:* Robert Bruninga; Electric Vehicle Discussion List *Subject:* Re: [EVDL] virtual power plant Even at 3% per year, by the end of 20 years, that 9.7 cents will be 18 cents. Yes, that is a personal justification for the financial investment. In 20 years at 3% a kWh will be less here than it is in Connecticut today. Much as I want to whine about Duke Progress, one result of their intransigence, micromanagement, and attachment to nukes is a low cost of power - very low. We have to weigh that against poisoned aquifers and ground water. On Tue, May 5, 2015 at 9:43 AM, Robert Bruninga via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: I ... put up... PV to max out the... tax credits. If I am lucky it will return 7% to 9%, but Duke [utility]doesn't see it the way I do... [their] rate is 9.7cents a kWh You have to abhor cracked atoms, heavy water out the yingyang and arsenic laced coal ash ponds to find much justification for residential PV here. To me that is the #1 justification. How can I in good conscience keep burning and polluting the planet of my kids? And secondly, the 9.7 cents is not going to stay constant. Your solar costs are done. Free now forever. But the utility will always go up. Even at 3% per year, by the end of 20 years, that 9.7 cents will be 18 cents. Bob On Mon, May 4, 2015 at 7:25 PM, Ben Goren via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: On May 4, 2015, at 4:15 PM, Cor van de Water via EV ev@lists.evdl.org wrote: Again, the most optimal case would be that you can shift the full 10kWh each day, which would yield $2.60 per day or $950 per year. In 10 years that would give you $9,500 which is about the money you invested in a 10kW system, 10 years earlier so this would give you a zero-percent investment with risks. Not good. Actually...a ten-year payoff is about a 7% annual rate of return, which is really rather good. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_72 A ten-year payoff means that you've doubled your money over the course of ten years. 70 / 10 = 7%. (That of course assumes the battery is still worth $10K at the end, and so on. I've still found the Rule of 70 to be a rather useful tool for doing this kind of financial analysis...anything with a ten-year or better payoff is almost always something you should seriously consider leaping at, if you've got the capital to spare. You'll have less money in your pocket, yes, but your expenses will be dramatically lowered giving you a lot more financial flexibility and security.) b ___ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA ( http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) -- To invent, you need a good imagination and a pile of junk. Thomas A. Edison http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/t/thomasaed125362.html A public-opinion poll is no substitute for thought. *Warren Buffet* Michael E. Ross (919) 585-6737 Land (919) 576-0824 https://www.google.com/voice/b/0?pli=1#phones Google Phone (919) 631-1451
