re: observation selection effects

2004-10-09 Thread Stathis Papaioannou
Here is a similar paradox to the traffic lane example:   In the new casino game called Flip-Flop, an odd number of players pay $1 each to gather in individual cubicles and flip a coin (so no player can see what another player is doing). The game organisers tally up the results, and the re

Re: observation selection effects

2004-10-09 Thread John M
Stathis, in this new FLip-Flop I see some slight merit beyond the symmetry of switching from one unknown to another unknown: If I got heads, I can THINK of the majority getting heads. (No justifiacation, however, but a slight idea that I am the 'average guy', not the exceptional minority).

re: observation selection effects

2004-10-09 Thread Kory Heath
At 10:35 AM 10/9/2004, Stathis Papaioannou wrote: From the point of view of typical player, it would seem that there is not: the Winning Flip is as likely to be heads as tails, and if he played the game repeatedly over time, he should expect to break even, whether he switches in the final step o