Re: Time Until Superintelligence and the Singularity, 20 Years or 8 Years or 2?

[John Clark]

On Tue, Jul 11, 2023 at 9:19 PM 'spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List <
everything-list@googlegroups.com> wrote:

*> I am following along the March statement by Ray Kurzweil forecasting a
> first push at human immortality at 2030. For this to occur something
> revolutionary must happen with AI.*
>

Yes.

*>What that seems to be is QC. Does it require QC?*
>

No. When Quantum Computing becomes practical it will make AI's evolve even
faster but it's not necessary for that 2030 date to be true, for the AI
Singularity to occur all that's required is that progress with conventional
AI, which makes no use of Quantum Computing, continue at the same rate as
it has in the last year. But of course if it really is the Singularity that
we're approaching then the rate of progress will not remain constant but
will accelerate. AI is already improving algorithms that humans have
tinkered with over for many decades because the world uses them trillions
of times a day so even a small improvement can make a huge difference; of
course AIs have also made use of these new improved programs, and machines
improving machines is a sign of a positive feedback loop. And it's also a
sign of the Singularity.

>
> *> You would know, and all I would do is make a guess. I think it would be
> a super boost if we combine AI with The Quantum. How soon? *
>

All anybody, including me, can do is make a guess. It's possible that some
roadblock will show up that will retard the evolution of AI, but so far
there's no sign of such a thing, so Kurzweil's prediction that the
Singularity will occur as early as 2030 does not seem like a crazy
prediction to me, although a year ago or even 6 months ago I would've said
it was. As for what will happen after the Singularity I don't know. Yes
human immortality is a possibility, but so is the complete extinction of
the entire human race; and it's impossible to even give odds about which of
those 2 possibilities is more likely. We lack the tools to even make an
educated guess about probabilities; if we could do better it wouldn't be a
Singularity.

John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis

bbt

Time Until Superintelligence: 1-2 Years, or 20?


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Re: Time Until Superintelligence and the Singularity, 20 Years or 8 Years or 2?

['spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List]

 I am following along the March statement by Ray Kurzweil forecasting a first 
push at human immortality at 2030. For this to occur something revolutionary 
must happen with AI. What that seems to be is QC. Does it require QC? You would 
know, and all I would do is make a guess. I think it would be a super boost if 
we combine AI with The Quantum. How soon? 
On Tuesday, July 11, 2023 at 02:21:51 PM EDT, John Clark 
 wrote:  
 
 On Tue, Jul 11, 2023 at 1:46 PM 'spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List 
 wrote:




> Whenever AI is installed on reliable quantum computers. Yes above 100 
> successful operations per second I will hold with your prediction.


 OpenAI, the company that made GPT-4, didn't even take Quantum Computing into 
account when it said that Superhuman intelligence could arrive in this decade, 
not in a decade but IN THIS DECADE.  Quantum Computing would just be icing on 
the cake. 
 John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis 

qcn



  
Time Until Superintelligence: 1-2 Years, or 20?


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Re: Time Until Superintelligence and the Singularity, 20 Years or 8 Years or 2?

[John Clark]

On Tue, Jul 11, 2023 at 1:46 PM 'spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List <
everything-list@googlegroups.com> wrote:


> *> Whenever AI is installed on reliable quantum computers. Yes above 100
> successful operations per second I will hold with your prediction.*


 OpenAI, the company that made GPT-4, didn't even take Quantum Computing
into account when it said that Superhuman intelligence could arrive in this
decade, not in a decade but IN THIS DECADE.  Quantum Computing would just
be icing on the cake.

 John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis


qcn


> Time Until Superintelligence: 1-2 Years, or 20?
> 

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Re: Time Until Superintelligence and the Singularity, 20 Years or 8 Years or 2?

['spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List]

Everything-list@googlegroups.com
Whenever AI is installed on reliable quantum computers. Yes above 100 
successful operations per second I will hold with your prediction.
Sent from the all new AOL app for Android 
 
  On Mon, Jul 10, 2023 at 6:37 PM, John Clark wrote:   
Time Until Superintelligence: 1-2 Years, or 20?

 John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis
ibtr

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