Re: [FairfieldLife] Coronavirus: No more deadly than the flu? Anti-lockdown protests?
Great analysis
Sent from my iPhone
> On Apr 22, 2020, at 10:08 AM, Theresa Olson theresaolson...@gmail.com
> [FairfieldLife] wrote:
>
> Thank you, Dick, for this intelligent, useful and practical information.
>
>
> For the TM readers, please recall the cogent advice of Maharishi: Avert the
> danger BEFORE it arises.
> And if prevention did not work, he would tell us, GO SEE A DOCTOR.
>
> Also recall that cover-19 damages your lungs. Is it worth it? Are you sure
> your lungs are in perfect shape right now?
>
> Prana flows, but let’s support a healthy flow.
>
> Again, thank you Dick
>
> Theresa Olson, Phd, Ms, Ma Msci
>
>
>
>> On Apr 22, 2020, at 2:52 PM, Dick Mays dickm...@lisco.com [FairfieldLife]
>> wrote:
>>
>>
>> Dear Friends,
>>
>> Several of you have expressed support for the belief that COVID-19 is no
>> more deadly than the flu, and/or expressed support for anti-lockdown
>> protests. To these among you I ask a simple question, and then present some
>> stats.
>>
>> The question: How many times in the last 100 years have you heard of New
>> York City’s hospitals being completely overwhelmed by a flu? Detroit’s?
>> Milan’s?
>> Once—only this year. In other words, it’s an extremely rare occurrence.
>> If so, the probability that Covid-19 is just like any other flu would be
>> close to 1%.
>>
>> The stats:
>>
>> 1. How lethal is Covid-19 compared to flu? Here are CNN's stats on the
>> annual flu burden in the U.S. since 2010 from a cogent 3-minute interview of
>> Dr. Sanjay Gupta:*
>> Range of the number of illnesses in a year: 9,000,000-45,000,000
>> Range of the number of hospitalizations in a year: 140,000-810,000
>> Range of the number of deaths in a year: 12,000-61,000
>>
>> Conclusion: The lethality of the flu in the U.S. during this period has
>> been 0.13%.
>>
>> 2. The Lancet estimated Covid-19’s lethality is 5.7%, and could be as high
>> as 20%.** This is 48-154 times as deadly as flu.
>>
>> 3. How easily does Covid-19 spread compared to flu? Here are CNN's stats
>> from a cogent 2-minute report*** on R0 ("R-naught”, the reproduction
>> number), a measure of how many people each patient will infect:
>> For Measles at the upper end, R0 = 12-18, so each person with measles will
>> infect 12-18 others.
>> For Ebola at the lower end, R0 = 1.5-2.5.
>> Flu varies year to year, but one study reports its R0 averages 1.2.
>> For Covid-19 the CDC reports the R0 = 2.2-2.7.
>>
>> Conclusion: Covid-19 is twice as contagious as the flu.
>>
>> 4. Combining the fact that Covid-19 is 48-158 times as lethal as the flu
>> with the fact that Covid-19 is twice as contagious as the flu, Covid-19 is
>> 96-316 times as deadly. That’s not "just like the flu!"
>>
>> 5. These facts justify a response to Covid-19 that has correspondingly
>> greater urgency than the flu. That response is especially urgent in the
>> U.S.. because:
>> The world’s population is 7,800,000,000 and the U.S. population is
>> 327,000,000.
>> According to Johns Hopkins,* the world has 2,561,044 confirmed cases, or
>> 328 cases per million.
>> According to Johns Hopkins, the U.S. has 823,786 confirmed cases, or 2,519
>> cases per million. That is 8 times worse than average for the world.
>> According to Johns Hopkins, the world has 176,921 deaths, or 23 deaths per
>> million.
>> According to Johns Hopkins, the U.S. has 44,845 deaths, or 137 deaths per
>> million. That is 6 times worse than average for the world.
>>
>> 6. I’m not a doctor or epidemiologist, and the following statement is less
>> rigorous and more simplistic than the above sets of facts, and I could be
>> wrong: I’d say the primary ways of dealing with a new virus—until
>> vaccinations are available—are Containment, Tests, Contract Tracing, and
>> Social Distancing.
>> In the U.S., the opportunity for Containment lapsed in February.
>> In the U.S., the Tests are way behind the nation's need.
>> Harvard researchers estimate “We need to deliver 5 million tests per day by
>> early June to deliver a safe social reopening."**
>> Harvard researchers estimate the U.S. needs "20 million tests a day (ideally
>> by late July) to fully remobilize the economy."
>> According to Johns Hopkins, the U.S. has tested a total of only 4,155,178
>> since testing began.
>> According to Johns Hopkins, the U.S. tested only 151,627 in the past 24
>> hours.
>> Contact Tracing can’t begin to be effective until the tests are sufficient.
>> Until the U.S. ramps up its Tests and Contract Tracing, Social Distancing is
>> all that’s left.
>>
>> These are reasons for my reluctance to watch videos that encourage Americans
>> to dismiss social distancing and protest anti-lockdown measures. Until
>> Covid-19 is contained by much more tests and contract tracing—especially as
>> set forth by Harvard below—such advice will not only multiply our death
>> count, but prolong and deepen our economic contraction.
>>
>> Sincere
Re: [FairfieldLife] Coronavirus: No more deadly than the flu? Anti-lockdown protests?
Thank you, Dick, for this intelligent, useful and practical information.
For the TM readers, please recall the cogent advice of Maharishi: Avert the
danger BEFORE it arises.
And if prevention did not work, he would tell us, GO SEE A DOCTOR.
Also recall that cover-19 damages your lungs. Is it worth it? Are you sure
your lungs are in perfect shape right now?
Prana flows, but let’s support a healthy flow.
Again, thank you Dick
Theresa Olson, Phd, Ms, Ma Msci
> On Apr 22, 2020, at 2:52 PM, Dick Mays dickm...@lisco.com [FairfieldLife]
> wrote:
>
>
> Dear Friends,
>
> Several of you have expressed support for the belief that COVID-19 is no more
> deadly than the flu, and/or expressed support for anti-lockdown protests. To
> these among you I ask a simple question, and then present some stats..
>
> The question: How many times in the last 100 years have you heard of New
> York City’s hospitals being completely overwhelmed by a flu? Detroit’s?
> Milan’s?
> Once—only this year. In other words, it’s an extremely rare occurrence.
> If so, the probability that Covid-19 is just like any other flu would be
> close to 1%.
>
> The stats:
>
> 1. How lethal is Covid-19 compared to flu? Here are CNN's stats on the
> annual flu burden in the U.S. since 2010 from a cogent 3-minute interview of
> Dr. Sanjay Gupta:*
> Range of the number of illnesses in a year: 9,000,000-45,000,000
> Range of the number of hospitalizations in a year: 140,000-810,000
> Range of the number of deaths in a year: 12,000-61,000
>
> Conclusion: The lethality of the flu in the U.S. during this period has been
> 0.13%.
>
> 2. The Lancet estimated Covid-19’s lethality is 5.7%, and could be as high
> as 20%.** This is 48-154 times as deadly as flu.
>
> 3. How easily does Covid-19 spread compared to flu? Here are CNN's stats
> from a cogent 2-minute report*** on R0 ("R-naught”, the reproduction number),
> a measure of how many people each patient will infect:
> For Measles at the upper end, R0 = 12-18, so each person with measles will
> infect 12-18 others.
> For Ebola at the lower end, R0 = 1.5-2.5.
> Flu varies year to year, but one study reports its R0 averages 1.2.
> For Covid-19 the CDC reports the R0 = 2.2-2.7.
>
> Conclusion: Covid-19 is twice as contagious as the flu.
>
> 4. Combining the fact that Covid-19 is 48-158 times as lethal as the flu
> with the fact that Covid-19 is twice as contagious as the flu, Covid-19 is
> 96-316 times as deadly. That’s not "just like the flu!"
>
> 5. These facts justify a response to Covid-19 that has correspondingly
> greater urgency than the flu. That response is especially urgent in the U.S.
> because:
> The world’s population is 7,800,000,000 and the U.S. population is
> 327,000,000.
> According to Johns Hopkins,* the world has 2,561,044 confirmed cases, or
> 328 cases per million.
> According to Johns Hopkins, the U.S. has 823,786 confirmed cases, or 2,519
> cases per million. That is 8 times worse than average for the world.
> According to Johns Hopkins, the world has 176,921 deaths, or 23 deaths per
> million.
> According to Johns Hopkins, the U.S. has 44,845 deaths, or 137 deaths per
> million. That is 6 times worse than average for the world.
>
> 6. I’m not a doctor or epidemiologist, and the following statement is less
> rigorous and more simplistic than the above sets of facts, and I could be
> wrong: I’d say the primary ways of dealing with a new virus—until
> vaccinations are available—are Containment, Tests, Contract Tracing, and
> Social Distancing.
> In the U.S., the opportunity for Containment lapsed in February.
> In the U.S., the Tests are way behind the nation's need.
> Harvard researchers estimate “We need to deliver 5 million tests per day by
> early June to deliver a safe social reopening."**
> Harvard researchers estimate the U.S. needs "20 million tests a day (ideally
> by late July) to fully remobilize the economy."
> According to Johns Hopkins, the U.S. has tested a total of only 4,155,178
> since testing began.
> According to Johns Hopkins, the U.S. tested only 151,627 in the past 24 hours.
> Contact Tracing can’t begin to be effective until the tests are sufficient.
> Until the U.S. ramps up its Tests and Contract Tracing, Social Distancing is
> all that’s left.
>
> These are reasons for my reluctance to watch videos that encourage Americans
> to dismiss social distancing and protest anti-lockdown measures. Until
> Covid-19 is contained by much more tests and contract tracing—especially as
> set forth by Harvard below—such advice will not only multiply our death
> count, but prolong and deepen our economic contraction.
>
> Sincere best wishes,
> Dick
>
>
> * Link:
> https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/02/27/trump-coronavirus-flu-news-conference-sanjay-gupta-newday-vpx.cnn
>
>
