Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

2015-09-23 Thread Nick Thompson
Glen, I think you have nailed one of the origins of science-doubters: the relation between the nomothetic and the idiographic (which you can google, if you want to know more). Briefly, there is no strong reason to believe that a probabilistic generalization applies to my individual case. Wel

Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

2015-09-23 Thread Steve Smith
On 9/23/15 1:40 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote: In practice, the tactic of creating doubt tends to be more about creating fear, and decreasing the resolve of the opponent, than it is about increasing the prevalence of skeptical thinking. I think flip-flopping is not that hard of a skill to master,

Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

2015-09-23 Thread Merle Lefkoff
What's the risk if the sceptics win? Scepticism is surely the easy way out on this one. On Wed, Sep 23, 2015 at 5:17 PM, Merle Lefkoff wrote: > It's NEVER NEVER either/or! Try both/and. > > On Wed, Sep 23, 2015 at 8:10 AM, Gillian Densmore > wrote: > >> Glen (as typical) raises a good questio

Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

2015-09-23 Thread Merle Lefkoff
It's NEVER NEVER either/or! Try both/and. On Wed, Sep 23, 2015 at 8:10 AM, Gillian Densmore wrote: > Glen (as typical) raises a good question what the purpose and thrust of > this forum is. > > If you even know. > > A few scientists have even said that one of the truly awesome things about > sc

Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

2015-09-23 Thread glen
On 09/23/2015 02:54 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote: Persuasion happens between minds. What you are describing is not scalable. The surgical intervention has to be done on the right people, not individuals of low conviction. They just fall in line to the right manipulator. Perhaps I was too op

Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

2015-09-23 Thread Marcus Daniels
"There are these somewhat controversial papers that indicate medium-term fasting (more than 48 hours) assists the therapy in triggering apoptosis (good cell death that minimizes free toxins) and reducing necrosis (bad cell death where toxins roam a bit more freely). She maintains that people on

Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

2015-09-23 Thread Marcus Daniels
"My claim is the truly powerful do _not_ manipulate in the way you're describing. They are more surgical in their methods. The power gained by your coarser manipulation is temporary and fickle. The power gained by steadily punching holes in convictions is more permanent." Persuasion happens

Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

2015-09-23 Thread glen
On 09/23/2015 02:15 PM, Nick Thompson wrote: Diet and Heart Disease Chronic Lyme Disease Fibromyalgia Diet and Cancer Vaccination and autism and Alzheimer's Chronic fatigue syndrome Environmental sensitivity syndrome First of all, I would like to recruit this list to identify other issues w

Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

2015-09-23 Thread glen
On 09/23/2015 02:43 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote: The question is not "Should one use doubt to create fear?", the question is "Will someone use doubt to create fear?" (Someone almost always will.) The crafty campaign strategist will anticipate the audience experiencing the fear and assess whether

Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

2015-09-23 Thread Marcus Daniels
"But both the path of least resistance and the cohesiveness of a social group depend, in fundamental ways, on a lack of conviction." The question is not "Should one use doubt to create fear?", the question is "Will someone use doubt to create fear?" (Someone almost always will.) The crafty ca

Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

2015-09-23 Thread glen
On 09/23/2015 01:46 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote: People react to the forces in their environment first -- wrong or right -- and second rationalize them. Create a path of least resistance for the undecided, and give them arguments to rationalize their decision.For those that are taking the

Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

2015-09-23 Thread Nick Thompson
Glen, I want to make a distinction between the discussion at Clark university (which seems more and more to be directed toward moral chest beating by Global Warming Enthusiasts, and a discussion that I want to have with you, and others, about when we (i.e., you, me, and others like us) are led

Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

2015-09-23 Thread Marcus Daniels
Right, but meanwhile, a larger consensus is forming that makes racist belief system increasingly untenable and isolated. Similarly, it was more important the gay community stick together and create a political/economic force than it was to persuade social conservatives that a gay lifestyle was

Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

2015-09-23 Thread glen
I completely disagree. It seems to me that fear causes people to dig themselves further into their convictions ... or even to create convictions that were, up to that point, just tendencies. It's relatively easy to imagine that's the case with modern racists. Up to the point of being challe

Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

2015-09-23 Thread Marcus Daniels
In practice, the tactic of creating doubt tends to be more about creating fear, and decreasing the resolve of the opponent, than it is about increasing the prevalence of skeptical thinking. I think flip-flopping is not that hard of a skill to master, it's whether one wants to devote the needed

Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

2015-09-23 Thread glen
On 09/23/2015 11:38 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: As long as they can be held in solitary confinement, and prevented from organizing, they can have all of the "moderation" they want! But if as they have organized, then those who have seen the consequences of that organization and don't much like

Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

2015-09-23 Thread Marcus Daniels
"Defending a subtle concept of faith to this crowd is like arguing for moderation instead of abstinence at an AA meeting." As long as they can be held in solitary confinement, and prevented from organizing, they can have all of the "moderation" they want! But if as they have organized, then t

Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

2015-09-23 Thread glen
Y'all do a good job of highlighting the importance of the context for such a forum. Here's another time-wasting anecdote: I spend way too much time trying to make peace with the local atheists. When I go to their meetings and the topics of faith or the supernatural or mystical come up, I hav

Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

2015-09-23 Thread Steve Smith
Gil - I think it takes a certain perspective and maybe training to be a proper "Skeptic". I think as far as the Saros thing goes, I can imagine it having an effect on annual weather patterns with periods relevant to the periods of the sun/moon/

Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

2015-09-23 Thread Gillian Densmore
@Steve yeah I don't know that a person can stay sane and constantly question what they do. The maxim can probably be taken many different ways. Personally I take it in a playfull, happy-go-lucky kind of way of Kind of like OOH I wonder how (Coffe for example) works? OOOH it's black and with a pinch

Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

2015-09-23 Thread Steve Smith
Gil- The Saros cycles are fascinating.  Of course I always "assumed" there was such periodicity and wondered if anyone had tried to correlate these conjunctions with earthly phenomena.  I don't see this undermining the anthropogenic climate change hypothesi

Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

2015-09-23 Thread Gillian Densmore
Glen (as typical) raises a good question what the purpose and thrust of this forum is. If you even know. A few scientists have even said that one of the truly awesome things about science is they "question everything". And there's been a theory that weather patterns are influenced somewhat by h

Re: [FRIAM] Good climate change skeptics

2015-09-23 Thread Gillian Densmore
Wikipedia has a article about climate change skeptics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming On Tue, Sep 22, 2015 at 6:34 PM, Nick Thompson wrote: > G > > Think of Emerson and Thoreau. > > N > > Nicholas S. Thompson >