Some questions about the underlying figures:
- The pre-industrial temperatures are often presented as the result of sort of
an equilibrium between the incoming radiative flux and the outgoing one; having
a different set of GHG concentrations would have led to a different equilibrium
set of
Dear Tom,
Let us first set aside considerations of tipping points in the Arctic,
and focus of the CO2 effect on temperature.
This is a fundamental question: which of us is right about the effect
of zero CO2 emissions! The whole basis of the forthcoming Copenhagen
meeting is that, if we
Ken et al.--I have done a similar calculation with MAGICC‹and when you do
the full set of gases, note that tropospheric ozone and black carbon drop
very quickly as well, and methane over a couple of decades, so there is an
offset to the sulfate warming if we can reduce those other forcings.
And
Dear Denis‹You really need to do some order of magnitude estimating:
Based on the earlier email on the energy involved in and dissipated by
hurricanes, the heat release of a hurricane (on average‹big ones are higher
by a good bit) is on order of 5.2 * 10**19 Joules per day. Convert that to
Tom - is there an identifiable bifurcation point or tipping point in
your model? As I understand it, ALLDEAD follows your reference
scenario out to 2020, but then all emissions cease. If we were to
repeat the exercise for an abrupt cutoff in 2040, 2060, etc, would we
see a family of temperature
Of the various views:
One needs to keep in mind that the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), 55
million years ago was effectively an ALLDEAD scenario where the release of
carbon was not having any human help. A natural and an instrumented release of
carbon totally different.
It
Amazingly you ignore the physics. When a black body such as the greenhouse
layer gets black it achieves a maximum radiative output and feedback to the
surface independent of how thick or concentrated it is. When the greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere reach that level, putting in more greenhouse
Dear Eugene‹Your argument about the CO2 bands saturating was, as I
understand it, one of the major two criticisms of Arrhenius when he first
put forward the greenhouse gas hypothesis (the other was that the oceans had
so much carbon there was no way that the atmospheric concentration could be
Hi Gene,
I did look at that site, and that page, but it is just for temperature,
and seems not detailed enough to show the recent ice ages. The
temperature has oscillated within certain limits during the ice ages,
but is now threatening to break through the upper limit. I believe it
will
Hi Gene,
I just add to Mike MacCracken's points that Venus should be a cold place if CO2
trapped only limited amount of heat, Venusian plenty of sulphur dioxide cooled
what it could, while all the sunlight is being deflected by its extremely
bright and thick white cloud cover.
Please
Hi Gene,
The historic argument is a quite good one.
The unmentionables that are not possible to look at are: the intensity of solar
output, and accessibility of positive feedbacks into carbon reserves assuming
that man-made warming triggered full naturally accessible carbon plus
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