Re: [GKD] Digital Divide vs. Social Divide.

2002-04-15 Thread Dr. Perry Morrison

Chris Bragg [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 While I think there is a real value to the observation that many
 development projects stray on the wrong side of the 80/20 rule in an
 effort to ensure maximum value from the project, I cannot agree that the
 factors effecting decision making are in any way different from one
 community to the next, when viewed at the point where the decision is
 finally made. Whether a committee, election processes or referenda, or a
 single autocratic individual makes the choice the important fact is that
 the decision is made on the basis of existing knowledge and a necessity
 to reach a decision, for one or other reason. It may be that multiple
 people make the decision and then cast a vote, or it may be one person
 makes the decision, but the principle is the same in each case.

In an ideal world, all decisions would be rational and evidence based.
In the real world, amost none are.
  
 The experience, perception and understanding (i.e. knowledge) of those
 who perceive a need to make a decision and the quality and quantity of
 existing knowledge of those who make the decision, will impact on the
 decision whoever makes it.  Whatever form and shape that knowledge
 takes, whether induced by a formal university degree, or a specific
 research study, or traditional folklore, or social awareness and
 political understanding of what is desirable or not, surely we can
 safely accept that in the general sense 'better knowledge' will lead to
 'better decisions'.

Better knowledge has the potential to lead to better decisions if you
mean rational and evidence based decisions. But for many (most?) people
rationality and evidence  can be tossed aside at the drop of a hat.

I have a health economist friend who does very good work for a number of
agencies including WHO. Her work is very rational, accessible and based
on good data. It shows what optimal level of investment in primary
prevention could yield in long term chronic care savings and quality of
life.  Pretty basic stuff that some detailed costing data and a
spreadsheet can generate. It also amounts to many millions saved that
could be invested in education, welfare etc. Not to mention thousands of
lives in which chronic care is prevented.

Selling this message to the health fraternity is very difficult because
innoculation, health screening, regular checkups etc. aren't empires.
Running a hospital is an empire. Millions spent in imaging and other
equipment is an empire. Nurses with a clip board do not make an empire.

Apart from that, being rational doesn't leave much flexibility for
political ploys. Cutting out breast imaging for women under a certain
age may be rational because it yields no real benefits, but try selling
that rational decision to a voting public in a marginal electorate.

I think  it is a common mistake for the rationally trained to believe
that others appreciate rationality, logic and evidence. It is a mistake
I made after 15 years as an academic. When I asked people to write up
their arguments, evidence, methodologies and logic as a consultant I was
simply regarded as an argumentative jerk. I was willng to accept the
best argument from any source, but most of the people I worked with knew
what I didn't- that rationality had very little to do with  anything.

Indeed, the vast majority of people have very little understanding of
anything logical. I think I mentioned in an earlier post that one of the
barriers to aircraft over 1000 passengers is not technology- it is
simply the fallout that a crash of a single plane would have on
passenger risk perception. Again, the risks would not have shifted but
people will not be amenable to a logical contradiction.

If you really look, there are many structures, processes and policies in
any society that are plainly irrational and which persist because it
suits the status quo or because change is simply unacceptable to the
populace as a whole or to influential groups. Self interest is an
amazingly rational thing for the individual and a disaster for the
whole. (shades of tragedy of the commons).

 If people don't have time to gather better knowledge we have to find
 ways to enable them to have time - and this means a better standard of
 living usually, basic needs like fresh water and food closer to hand and
 electricity/light to extend daylight hours, and as so rightly pointed
 out, the opportunity to apply better knowledge for immediate and long
 term benefit.

Yes, when people (usually individuals) have the power to implement their
decisions, then better information does indeed yield better decisions.
But as pointed out above, once an implementation decision needs to be
filtered through some approval process, then the politics of the group
and the divergent interests of the individuals that comprise it come to
the fore.


Perry Morrison
http://www.alteich.com/links/morrison.htm
http://www.geocities.com/perrymorrison/oz_aboriginal_comms.html




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Re: [GKD] Linux Aid Server Project

2002-02-18 Thread Dr. Perry Morrison

I think what is at issue here is the different contexts involved.

Edmond Gaible [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 On simplicity: Although laptops are durable and feature low power
 requirements, they're more expensive and much more difficult to service.
 In school computer labs, teachers and students often become adept at
 scavenging parts to repair desktop computers. Such activities, although
 arising out of need, become one of the benefits of participating in
 school computers clubs. Such activities are _much_ more difficult with
 laptops. In Zimbabwe, at least through 1998, servicing of a laptop
 required that the machine be shipped to South Africa.

In my communities there are no spares, let alone bins of cards for
mating to motherboards and power supplies. Laptops eat less dust in the
places I work (smaller fans in very open buildings) and hack the 100
lightning hits per hr in some ridges get in Arnhem Land. Probably the
reason the US has a lightning research station in Darwin.

When our machines die that's it. We can't even afford the funeral. But
in my experience, the isolation of old laptops from the power grid and
their smaller ingestion of dust leads to better longevity. I don't
advocate new laptops in these environments (who can afford them anyway).
But free discarded ones meet some people's needs fine for quite a long
time.
  
 On new technologies: Several features of Matthew Grant's proposed server
 design have already proven valuable for the Virtual Didactic Lab
 education project in Sao Paulo -- and could be of similar value to other
 projects that require heavy e-mail / Internet use in regions that are
 infrastructure-poor or poorly regulated.
 
 The LabVirt project engages secondary-school students in the design of
 physics simulations, which are then built in Java by graduate students
 at University of Sao Paulo, and uploaded to a central repository for use
 as teaching/learning tools. Schools involved in the project, located in
 underserved communities throughout the state of Sao Paulo, generally
 have 10-computer labs, with machines on the order of Pentium 1s and 2s.
 The project has designed and built a blackbox server, which sits on
 one of the school's 10 workstations. This server links the computers in
 a LAN, giving them all access to the printer and maximizing the lab's
 limited hard-drive space.

OK, here's one of my contexts. 25 unreliable party lines in an area the
size of a small European country. Cut off by floods for 3-6 months a
year. Reliant on air and barge supply. Phone pits regularly blown out by
lightning. Irregular and poorly conditioned power. Dust ridden,
unconditioned buildings. I won't even begin to describe the social
dysfunctionality.  10 computers here will not happen for a long time- if
ever. A network here is 2 itinerant PCs that have the occasional liaison
via a crossover cable.

Hence my comment to a private poster:

Of course, the whole free software movement is great. I applaud it
mightily. But let's just remember that the people we want to help don't
have 2 cents literally, let alone 2 cents  of opinion  to contribute to
religious software debates. If  an old, ugly, creaky DOS  machine lands
on their desk and meets their needs, who are we to tell them any
different? 

It might actually be the only computer they see for quite a while.

Personally, I'm the last one to tell them they have to wait until they can
afford a Linux network. (And what else is Linux for?)

 Critically, in a project that involves students uploading graphics and
 downloading Java applets, the server uses call-scheduling to optimize
 all email transactions -- processing these when the lab is unused and
 when the city's phone lines have the least traffic. If the phones are
 down or the connection is poor, the task is re-scheduled.
 
 (The LabVirt project has completed its second year -- I'm unaware of any
 publicly accessible web artifacts.)
 
 One could argue, as well, that _any_ Linux-based proposal for developing
 countries should be given serious consideration as part of an effort to
 reduce the future costs and constraints of participation in an otherwise
 exclusionary networked society. Linux has already become much more user
 friendly, with graphical interfaces (not unlike Windows) and simpler
 distributions. It continues to run well on older computers (e.g., 486s),

Well, not with a GUI it won't. You'll be restricted to a reduced
distribution with a shell interface. Not a nice thing for the novice and
the root account provides huge destructive potential for novices.

 and provides good Internet-browsing capabilities even on those machines.
 And integration of Linux into development projects is one way to ensure
 that this collaboratively created alternative evolves to better meet the
 needs of developing-country users.
 
 In an alternative view of the future, Microsoft is releasing its new
 developers' toolkit (C-Sharp) this week, intended to compete with Java
 [open-source, free], 

Re: [GKD] India Adopts Universal Access

2002-01-28 Thread Dr. Perry Morrison

Alan Levy wrote:

 Well, Perry, I agree to a point and have covered this in a less techie
 more socio-political email sent previously.  Herein is my argument to
 provide an equitable platform for participation, along with a defined
 group of basic communications applications.
 
 Everything is determined by the network, which is why I call for more
 networks, and the need to specifically apply applications to the minimal
 requisite network technology... to avoid cross-subsidization, achieve
 true application cost, maintain market pressure in pricing and
 innovation on information providers, and create affordable access to
 basic ICT participation. To do otherwise solely serves big business and
 big government in ways that will in time become clear are simply
 downright evil... forms of interactivity and data collection you are not
 going to like, and that cause loss of freedoms, individuality and
 identity.

I agree totally with this. Networks and their dynamics, interconnects
and traffic management, pricing and content policies etc. are exactly
what I'm on about. They're simply one form of political power structure
that can dramatically affect the real benefits of technology- especially
in terms of equity.

However, the pattern of social, commercial and political relationships
that drive network dynamics also works at all levels from
government/business down to the village level and it's powerbrokers.
Technology simply runs through the conduits of existing power
structures- usually to strengthen them or enhance their control or
position. Sometimes technologies create new conduits of power but again
these are usually controlled by the powerful. Twas ever thus.

None of this is surprising. What is surprising is the naive view that
many technologists have that somehow new technologies will change,
reverse or alter the relativities of power and control.

My point has been that technologies can create absolute gains for the
less powerful in solving practical problems--we can indeed improve some
aspects of standard of living. But the relativities will always be with
us.

As a concrete example, email and internet may improve the commercial
situation of microbusinesses in some countries through better marketing,
more flexible purchase arrangements and formation of cooperatives and
local industry groups to represent their interests. The marketing and
purchase options are just technical issues that technology solves.
Forming industry groups is a political act and the technology just makes
it easier.

Ultimately, if these efforts are very effective then they must actually
hurt someone else's interests- their market share for example. The
powerful amongst the affected parties can then use their (more powerful)
technologies to monitor their newly effective competitors and use
technological countersolutions for marketing etc. while pursuing
political strategies such as tariff building and other market
manipulation to return the status quo. Maybe in such scenarios there is
no nett gain in absolute standard of living and certainly no change to
the relativities.

 However, in understanding ICT, I project it'll take another ten years
 for most to become sufficiently conscious of this... by which time even
 a high legislative agenda won't be able even if desired... and it won't
 be... to disassemble monolithic sole-provider networks. The accompanying
 content and financial infrastructures will already be too entrenched.

Agreed. I am also quite fearful of the power of technology to inform and
to be informed on.


 This really shouldn't be a mystery for those highly educated. There are
 similarities to be found throughout history. I suggest that technology
 either clouds peoples thought processes, or provides a false belief that
 advances will continue to cure any dysfunction.  Again, history abounds
 with examples explaining it just ain't so.

Yes. 

 As noted in another email I sent, a network is ubiquitous in nature,
 making a connection only an ID. As explained in my book, a low-cost
 access device required to work both with user and access device
 authentication and verification (an ID for both) eliminates potential
 for theft when borrowed. And a medium bandwidth network provides a very
 low cost applications platform.
 
 The Ma Bell history we're repeating is going to end with a far different
 outcome this time around.  What's worse than a dearth of information?

A glut of mythinformation. A dearth is noticeable and motivating. A fire
hose of superficial, narrow, self centred, materialistic and trivial
information is even worse I think. That, in my view is where we are and
it may only get worse as enormous commercial and political interests
amalgamate and centralise.

Best

Perry Morrison




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Re: [GKD] India Adopts Universal Access

2002-01-17 Thread Dr. Perry Morrison

The Simputer is indeed a remarkable piece of technology. I soundly
applaud the designers and backers and all the others who have tackled
the array of hurdles (not just technical) involved.

My only caution is to be aware of the history of almost every truly
innovative technology- namely that those in advantaged positions are
inevitably early adopters and reap benefits which can sometimes worsen
the position of the less advantaged. The green revolution is some places
allowed early adopters (wealthier) farmers to adopt hybrid crops and
their essential fertilisers and the consequent windfall yields allowed
them to crush and buy out smaller, uncompetitive farmers.

If these Simputers are placed in the hands of the literate, organised
and articulate within a village structure- usually the ones who can pay
the hire costs - then this may provide a huge commercial and control
opportunity. Imagine being the guy in the village who owns the only
phone booth. He should be compensated for his maintenance, care and
time, but it also creates opportunities for information control,
extortion and deal making, not to mention cementing and expanding small,
local monopolies by cutting out access to certain businesses.

It's a bit like someone addressing a village meeting saying - I have
this new thing, it's called a gun. Does anyone have the money to hire
it? The rich guy running the brick factory steps forward and says I
do.

That's not to say that good things can't happen. But for once I would
like to see an experiment where someone, somewhere just foots the bill
to give technology ONLY to the poorest of the poor instead of the power
structures that run the village or district. Maybe nothing different
would happen. Maybe the technology would be back in the hands of the
powerful the next day. How much rice is a simputer worth?

On the other hand, supervised, supported, guaranteed control by an
INDEPENDENT body - again without cost to the user - might be worth a
try.

Could be interesting.

Perry Morrison




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Re: [GKD] Acknowledging the Digital Divide

2002-01-11 Thread Dr. Perry Morrison

Tom Poe wrote:

 Hello:  So, you don't have objections to moving computers over to
 developing countries, setting them on the tables of all the communities,
 and then discussing politics.  Is this a correct perception of your
 comments? 
 If so, then maybe the time has come to do just that:
 http://www.worldccr.org/kiosks.htm

Not only don't I have objections, I have been doing this in very remote
areas of Australia since 1996.

I guess all I'm saying is that new communications tools don't
necessarily change political/power imbalances. They make organising
people and exchanging information a lot easier, but let's face it, the
oppressed were storming the palace long before mass literacy was even
evident. And when mass literacy helped the struggle, the oppressors used
their own and more powerful propaganda and information tools.

In general, technologies are congruent with the rest of the world- the
powerful have more and better than the powerless. To use a different
analogy, having a rifle helps a lot with hunting and feeding your
family, but don't think that it will necessarily redress the political
underpinnings of your malnutrition. The political basis of your
starvation may be the dictator down the road, but your shiny new rifle 
won't tackle that situation- facing machine guns and maybe the odd bit
of napalm. Yes, a gun is a bit better than a sharp stick. But when you
had a sharp stick, the dictator only had rifles. And so it goes. I hope
this analogy is useful, if a little too violent.

In this same vein, the same basic communications tools used by the
oppressed to change their circumstances can also be used against them
by their oppressors (media disinformation, monitoring, data matching,
data mosaics, funds tracking and interruption and simple communications
with operatives/agents/sympathisers/employees).

Probably the most powerful weapon the West has against the claims of the
developing countries is to simply ignore it by basking in an inward
looking, media hyped, materialist culture that revels in itself. It's
not as if our TV screens have not been saturated with images of starving
children and third world turmoil. There is no lack of awareness or even
information. What is lacking is the political consensus that it actually
MATTERS. It may be naive to think that ICTs in developing countries will
suddenly make it matter when the West has a much greater ability to tune
the message out, to corrupt it or just turn up the volume on its own
orgy of self interest.

To put it in a nutshell, some problems faced by the developing world are
practical, physical problems that ICTs can address- technology to solve
practical problems like getting the best design for a $200 shallow bore
pump and advice on how to install and maintain it. Practical problems
like market information, weather forecasts etc.

However, ICTs won't be a magic bullet against the political processes
that have determined your need for a bore pump so that you don't have to
keep drinking from puddles. Your drinking from puddles  probably has a
lot to do with an  internal power struggle, international arms deals, a
non-level playing field in  international trade and finance,
international meddling and interference in your domestic arrangements
(possibly via aid funds) and a host of other political factors.

It would be nice to think that putting an internetted computer in such
villages will support a massive international dialogue that will promote
mutual understanding and  ultimately redress the political processes
that underly so many of the problems of the  developing world. However,
I just watched some TV for the first time in 4 years and I can't see
much chance of reasoned dialogue piercing our cocoon of materialistic
self interest- despite huge amounts of already available information on
the issues of the developing world. Shallow is shallow regardless of the
medium.

In addition, as mentioned in one of my posts last year, many
technologies have been touted as great equalisers of society,
including railways, electricity, the telegraph, radio and TV. It's
pretty obvious what DIDN'T happen and in restrospect it's obvious why-
the problem of equity is a political problem, not a technological one
or even a resource issue in many cases.

Finally, just to complete my unholy thesis of cynicism- there is at
least some possibility that greater communication around the world could
actually lead to less healthy relationships. For example, I have been
married for 18 years to an Australian  Aboriginal woman- with all of the
racism and bigotry that is normally associated with that status. It's
interesting that indigenous people are usually treated better elsewhere
than in than own country. North Americans often idolise Australian
Aborigines in the noble savage mould, while Australians are often very
attracted to First Americans. In their own countries, both are often
stereotyped as drunk, lazy, dirty etc. With better communications, there
is the 

Re: [GKD] Acknowledging the Digital Divide

2002-01-07 Thread Dr. Perry Morrison

This thread is intriguing and appeals to my long term interest in the
absolute vs relative gains provided by ICTs.

There are really 3 points that I think are important.

1. Absolute gains in living standards.  I agree that these technologies
can deliver real gains in access to information, potentially better and
cheaper forms of (some) service delivery and certainly the
communications base to coordinate and self organise commercially and
politically. For example, to take an obvious case, getting accurate
weather, market and agricultural information is important in an absolute
sense in terms of crop production, feeding people and export income.
That is, ICTs can facilitate improvements in existing baseline living
standards.

2. Despite these potential absolute gains, the relative  imbalances in
living standards will remain. That is, developing countries will always
be a generation or two behind  technologically for pretty obvious
reasons. This may not be important if the aim is to provide an
acceptable absolute living standard regardless of the level in say North
America.

3. The global status quo is a relative imbalance of POWER that is simply
refelected in (amongst many other things) similar imbalances in ICT
capability. Augmenting ICT capability will not shift this relative power
imbalance. For example, getting 10,000  African emails to Paris might be
an achievement. Getting them read or even noticed might be a miracle.
Especially when 100,000 emails come in from the Northern Hemisphere as
well as videos, thousands of phone calls etc. In addition, the very
tools that open up communications can be used to screen it out and even
monitor those people or organisations that are particularly troublesome.
J. Edgar Hoover did a pretty good job of monitoring miscreants using
typewriter technology. Imagine what's possible today and imagine the
media and informational tools now available to protect the interests of
the status quo. So, the technologies that allow the oppressed to
organise and communicate are trifling compared to those used by the the
oppressors to screen them out, distort the message and actively
undermine and subvert. And this imbalance will remain.

In short, if the aim is to deliver an absolute and acceptable living
standard to places that don't have this, then ICTs can play a role by
supporting informational and human efficiencies. If ICTs are thought
of as a new weapon that can be used to dramatically redress the power
imbalances underlying global poverty and oppression, then I think this
is an overstatement. Useful tools, yes. Magic weapon, no. Indeed, these
same technologies can also be used to maintain or augment the
catastrophic political divisions that exist  WITHIN some developing
countries just as much as they can be used to heal them. They are  just
tools after all.

I remember reading some recent Western research on self report measures
of subjective well-being (happiness for the rest of us). This suggested
that the break point of income required for people to be happy was
pretty low (in a Western sense) - from memory, something between
US$5-10,000. That's when basic services appear to be possible. Beyond
that, and despite the material frenzy that typifies much of the world,
it appears that genetic factors are a much greater determinant of how we
feel about each day and our life generally, rather than whether we have
a porsche in the garage. I guess that explains why some of the grossly
affluent are proactive in ending their days just a bit earlier than
expected.

Rather obviously, it's difficult to be happy when drinking from puddles
and half one's children are dead before their fifth birthday. If, to use
this example, ICTs can be used to  deliver the water resource
information, skills and support to redress such situations, I'm all for
it. However, I'm not sure that they will have much role in changing the
network of human power relationships that have determined and tolerated
these and similar circumstances for so long. Despite every technological
and social innovation, politics remain politics.


Perry Morrison



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Re: [GKD] Why aren't more people online?

2001-07-17 Thread Dr. Perry Morrison

I think the issues raised under this thread are central to a huge number
of ICT development efforts. It might be very useful to fund a study
which examines the impact of major past technological changes in terms
of equity, distribution of benefits etc. I know such material exists,
but a focused study that concentrates on the relevance of ICTs would be
very useful.

Even my own cursory reading suggests that the invention of railroads and
electicity production were predicted to act as great equalisers of
society. And TV was going to be the engine for cheap, worldwide
education. In many places the green revolution displaced poor farmers
who couldn't pay for the technology into the urban slums and many 3rd
world countries became the victims of multinational agribusiness.

As a technology enthusiast and implementer, I would like to know how I
can promote more good than harm in my activities.

Perry Morrison




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Re: [GKD] Technology Wars

2001-06-08 Thread Dr. Perry Morrison

Tom Abeles wrote:

 John Afele's comments, below, are worth some serious thinking. There was
 a community biogas project in a developing country. When the gas lines
 were installed in the homes, they were pressure tested with water. The
 women were so happy to have water, they didn't want the water turned off
 so that the gas could flow. There are many stories of the best laid
 plans of social change agents where the intentions and the ultimate
 outcomes were different and, may I suggest, unanticipated and unable to
 be anticipated.

I recall a case of a remote village in Pakistan that obtained better
road access and all of a sudden through much greater interaction and the
arrival of TV, discovered that they were poor. Things seemed to be a lot
worse after that. A great deal of misery in this world is real and even
more is mental/emotional misery. For me, while appalling levels of
physical misery clearly exist and there is a moral obligation to address
it, the situation is not helped by in your face media that shows the
lives of the rich and famous. Starving is hard. Seeing the occasional
broadcast of the feast next door is even harder.

The CFC/environmental consequences of the bulk of India and China
wanting fridge/freezers is pretty scary. But who am I to deny such
lifestyle shifts - especially when the better preservation of food is
associated with much better health outcomes.

Perry Morrison



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[GKD] Re: Overestimating the Digital Divide

2001-02-28 Thread Dr. Perry Morrison

Richards's point about "better than measured" e-mail access
in the developing world is valid, however it doesn't diminish
the extent of the Nth-Sth gap. E-mail may be the bread and
butter (the killer "app") of the Internet, but real broadband
connectivity is a true multiplier of productivity and better
decisionmaking.

For example I installed Internet connections in remote Aboriginal
clinics in Australia more than 5 yrs ago. Email from a Dr. to a specialist
was great but the bandwidth to have a decent database like Medline
available in a browser in the middle of Arnhemland blew them away.

I'll probably be involved in installing some v/conferencing systems out
there soon. A 2" thick A4 box with a PC camera on top plugs into
a 6" portable TV getting power from the car's cigarette lighter. The
satellite antenna folds flat  6" x 6". The sat phone mobile dials up
the satellite and you have portable 128K videoconferencing with something
that weighs only a couple of Kg. A long way from the CNN reporter's
moon dish in Baghdad!

This bandwidth will allow research experts to be in NY while helping live
with the fieldwork/observations of people in the field. Community residents
who are unhappy with a bureaucracy can dial them up and lob a meeting
rather than a letter- how's that for a quantum shift in accountability? We've
already had virtual prison visits, interviews, parent/teacher nights and
judicial hearings etc are just a step away.

Being able to email anyone in the world is amazing, but being able to almost
stand in their presence will make for a very different world (one day).

Perry Morrison





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