Add explanations of the checks and note the way the constants were derived.
Tweak the constants to reflect their purpose better.
---
 tests/kms_setmode.c | 36 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++---
 1 file changed, 33 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-)

diff --git a/tests/kms_setmode.c b/tests/kms_setmode.c
index 4031d81..74eed88 100644
--- a/tests/kms_setmode.c
+++ b/tests/kms_setmode.c
@@ -474,18 +474,48 @@ static void check_timings(int crtc_idx, const 
drmModeModeInfo *kmode)
 
        mean = igt_stats_get_mean(&stats);
        stddev = igt_stats_get_std_deviation(&stats);
-       accuracy = 3.090 * stddev; /* 2-tailed 99% confidence */
+
+       /* 99.7% samples fall within `accuracy` on both sides of mean in normal
+        * distribution if `accuracy = 3 * sigma`.
+        * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68%E2%80%9395%E2%80%9399.7_rule
+        *
+        * The value of 99.7% was chosen to suit requirements of test cases
+        * which depend on timing, giving the lowest acceptable MTBF of 5.6s
+        * for 60Hz sampling rate.
+        */
+       accuracy = 3. * stddev;
 
        igt_info("Expected frametime: %.0fus; measured %.1fus +- %.3fus 
accuracy %.2f%% [%.2f scanlines]\n",
                 expected, mean, stddev,
                 100 * accuracy / mean, accuracy / line_time(kmode));
 
-       /* 99% accuracy within one scanline */
+       /* 99.7% samples within one scanline on each side of mean */
        igt_assert_f(accuracy < line_time(kmode),
                     "vblank accuracy (%.3fus, %.1f%%) worse than a scanline 
(%.3fus)\n",
                     accuracy, 100 * accuracy / mean, line_time(kmode));
 
-       igt_assert_f(fabs(mean - expected) < 2*stddev,
+       /* At least 90% of frame times fall within the one scanline on each
+        * side of expected mean.
+        *
+        * Expected scanline duration:
+        *      (expected - accuracy, expected + accuracy).
+        * Assuming maximum difference allowed:
+        *      expected = mean + n * sigma
+        * the scanline duration becomes:
+        *      (mean - accuracy + n * sigma, mean + accuracy + n * sigma)
+        * The expected scanline captures the following number of samples
+        * from each side of expected:
+        *      (erf(abs(-(accuracy/sigma) + n) / sqrt(2))
+        *      + erf((accuracy/sigma) + n) / sqrt(2))) / 2
+        *      = samples
+        *
+        * Solving for samples = 0.9:
+        *      n = 1.718
+        *
+        * See:
+        * 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation#Rules_for_normally_distributed_data
+        */
+       igt_assert_f(fabs(mean - expected) < 1.718 * stddev,
                     "vblank interval differs from modeline! expected %.1fus, 
measured %1.fus +- %.3fus, difference %.1fus (%.1f sigma)\n",
                     expected, mean, stddev,
                     fabs(mean - expected), fabs(mean - expected) / stddev);
-- 
2.7.4
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