Re: [LINK] RFC: Does CovidSafe Actually Work?

2020-04-30 Thread Tom Worthington
On 29/4/20 12:56 pm, Roger Clarke wrote: I'm sceptical. ... Blue-Sky Blue-Teething Blues? ;-) User behavior may be an issue. I visited Andy Hopper, at the Olivetti Research Laboratory in Cambridge a few years ago. They had developed active badges to be worn by staff, which unlocked doors

Re: [LINK] RFC: Does CovidSafe Actually Work?

2020-04-29 Thread Bernard Robertson-Dunn
On 29/04/2020 11:24 pm, David Lochrin wrote: >> I'm concerned about the effectiveness of solving the problem: finding >> everyone someone may have given the virus to. > I don't think it's intended to trace every contact. It's effectiveness > ultimately hangs on probabilities. Big question: Of

Re: [LINK] RFC: Does CovidSafe Actually Work?

2020-04-29 Thread David Lochrin
On 2020-04-29 19:18, John Mann wrote: > I'm concerned about the effectiveness of solving the problem: finding > everyone someone may have given the virus to. I don't think it's intended to trace every contact. It's effectiveness ultimately hangs on probabilities. But even assuming the

Re: [LINK] RFC: Does CovidSafe Actually Work?

2020-04-29 Thread John Mann
Roger, I'm concerned about the effectiveness of solving the problem: finding everyone someone may have given the virus to. For example, it won't catch: - infected person A touches a surface, some time later, person B touches that surface - an infected cook A touches a food container, that is

Re: [LINK] RFC: Does CovidSafe Actually Work?

2020-04-29 Thread Roger Clarke
On 29/4/20 12:56 pm, Roger Clarke wrote: I'm sceptical. I've flung together some preliminary notes, with a view to establishing what's known about the effectiveness of apps like this. I'd appreciate feedback, pointers to sources, and pointers to people who are actively working on such

Re: [LINK] RFC: Does CovidSafe Actually Work?

2020-04-29 Thread Hamish Moffatt
On 29/4/20 3:24 pm, Karl Auer wrote: On Wed, 2020-04-29 at 05:02 +, Stephen Loosley wrote: Roger writes, I'm sceptical.  I've flung together some preliminary notes I'm interested in knowing how many healthy people have either mistakenly or deliberately pressed the "I'm infected" button and

Re: [LINK] RFC: Does CovidSafe Actually Work?

2020-04-28 Thread Hamish Moffatt
On 29/4/20 12:56 pm, Roger Clarke wrote: I'm sceptical. I've flung together some preliminary notes, with a view to establishing what's known about the effectiveness of apps like this. I'd appreciate feedback, pointers to sources, and pointers to people who are actively working on such

Re: [LINK] RFC: Does CovidSafe Actually Work?

2020-04-28 Thread Karl Auer
On Wed, 2020-04-29 at 05:02 +, Stephen Loosley wrote: > Roger writes, > I'm sceptical.  I've flung together some preliminary notes I'm interested in knowing how many healthy people have either mistakenly or deliberately pressed the "I'm infected" button and what impact that would have on them

Re: [LINK] RFC: Does CovidSafe Actually Work?

2020-04-28 Thread Stephen Loosley
Roger writes, > I'm sceptical. I've flung together some preliminary notes, with a view > to establishing what's known about the effectiveness of apps like this. Roger, perhaps some further thoughts regarding the basic idea of remote health monitoring may be appropriate? What I mean is, in

[LINK] RFC: Does CovidSafe Actually Work?

2020-04-28 Thread Roger Clarke
I'm sceptical. I've flung together some preliminary notes, with a view to establishing what's known about the effectiveness of apps like this. I'd appreciate feedback, pointers to sources, and pointers to people who are actively working on such questions. Thanks! ... Roger