Australia should join New Zealand and shoot for eliminating coronavirus
12th April 2020, Jonathan Nolan and Stephen Duckett, Grattan Institute
https://blog.grattan.edu.au/2020/04/australia-should-join-new-zealand-and-shoot-for-eliminating-coronavirus
New Zealand is beating coronavirus. They
On 9/4/20 4:23 pm, David Lochrin wrote:
What do you mean by a "gradual return to the classroom" and ...
Rather than having all students stop online learning at once and return
to campus on the same day, stagger it over months.
Only a few students would be on campus initially, for only a
On 11/04/2020 1:28 pm, Bernard Robertson-Dunn wrote:
> More data is needed. And, it seems, a lot more patience.
A model on its own is just theory. It needs to be validated, hence the
need for data.
Here's an example of data being used to validate (or not) climate models.
Australian forest study
An engineering perspective from The Institute of Engineering and
Technology (UK)
Predicting the pandemic: mathematical modelling tackles Covid-19
https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2020/04/predicting-the-pandemic-mathematical-modelling-tackles-covid-19/
The last sentence is key:
More
Roger writes,
> Hopefully the policy-makers know all this, are ignoring the simpletons,
> are taking into account insights drawn from multiple partial models that
> deliver bits and pieces of insights into segments of the whole problem
> (Bernard's "multiple, interconnected models fed by
On 10/4/20 11:21 am, Bernard Robertson-Dunn wrote:
Here's a much more useful description (in the current circumstances) of
what's going on than any of Dr Jansson type models
The one COVID-19 number to watch
Here's a much more useful description (in the current circumstances) of
what's going on than any of Dr Jansson type models
The one COVID-19 number to watch
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-10/coronavirus-data-australia-growth-factor-covid-19/12132478
--
Regards
brd
Bernard Robertson-Dunn
On 10/04/2020 8:57 am, Roger Clarke wrote:
> So the first thing that's done is problem-analysis.
Roger I agree with your missive, but would like add to the above comment.
Before you can analyse a problem you have to make sure you are trying to
solve the right problem.
In the case of a
This is a very general article from The Conversation about scientific
modelling - what is it?
I'm sure many people in the general public don't have a clue what it
is, so if you come across someone who doesn't understand the fine
grain details that Roger has been sharing (thanks Roger), this
On 9/4/20 9:03 pm, David Boxall wrote:
A different perspective:
https://medium.com/@jamesjansson/covid-19-modelling-is-wrong-f7246e3dc396
It's an interesting piece of work.
But it embodies the same fundamental error as the approach that it's
criticising. He's saying:
'my
A different perspective:
https://medium.com/@jamesjansson/covid-19-modelling-is-wrong-f7246e3dc396
--
David Boxall| Australia's problem isn't fake news,
| it's fake government.
http://david.boxall.id.au |--Ross
On 2020-04-09 08:46, Tom Worthington wrote:
> My proposal for the education sector is a gradual return to the classroom
> with blended learning:
What do you mean by a "gradual return to the classroom" and how would it reduce
the risk of infection?
David
On 7/4/20 10:25 pm, Bernard Robertson-Dunn wrote:
... What is the plan for easing up on "stay at home" ...
My proposal for the education sector is a gradual return to the
classroom with blended learning:
Most educational institutions had to scramble to convert courses for
online delivery
This may be only of curiosity value, but I've been collecting statistics from
the twice-daily bulletins on Covid-19 published by the Commonwealth Deptartment
of Health at
Bernard,
On 2020-04-08 22:25, Bernard Robertson-Dunn wrote:
> ICYMI, I sent an email last night that included this
I beg your pardon, I didn't see your reference and will read it with interest.
DL
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On 8/04/2020 8:43 pm, David Lochrin wrote:
> I'd like to see some details of the alleged modelling.
David,
ICYMI, I sent an email last night that included this
On 7/04/2020 11:10 pm, Bernard Robertson-Dunn wrote:
> Buried on the health.gov.au site is a link to the Doherty Institute report.
>
>
On 2020-04-07 22:25, Bernard Robertson-Dunn wrote:
> What matters is what happens next and the modelling did not cover that at
> all. What is the plan for easing up on "stay at home", taking the screws off
> businesses and opening the boarders? Scotty claims that our government is the
> only
On 7/04/2020 10:25 pm, Bernard Robertson-Dunn wrote:
> The UK, with 2.5 times our population have had over 100 times the case
> load and yesterday alone had 10 times our total death count and their PM
> is in a serious way.
I got my numbers wrong. The UK has about 55,000 cases, which is almost
10
Buried on the health.gov.au site is a link to the Doherty Institute report.
https://www.doherty.edu.au/uploads/content_doc/McVernon_Modelling_COVID-19_07Apr1_with_appendix.pdf
There's a lot more information in that report, but its value is
debatable. That's probably why Scotty's presentation
With a PhD and 50 years experience in computer modelling, I am in no way
critical of modelling.
What I am critical of is the spin this government is putting on their
modelling.
The modelling that has been done by many others, including researchers
in Australia, is far more comprehensive and up
Roger writes,
> .. Guesses might be that:
>
> (1) there are multiple models, and they paint quite different pictures
> (2) the model(s) deliver very different pictures ..
> (3) the model(s) deliver pictures that aren't consistent with what's
been portrayed to the public .. This is all
Jan,
Good idea. I'll work on it.
Bernard
On 7/04/2020 7:10 pm, jw...@internode.on.net wrote:
> I haven't read the papers and may not. Have you considered asking that
> question to Andrew Probyn so he can ask about it in those briefings?
> Or Phil Coorey even? Or other journos, maybe Kathryn Murphy
> On Tue, 2020-04-07 at 18:10 +1000, Bernard Robertson-Dunn wrote:
>> I can't believe they have been making decisions on the modelling they
>> released today. They may be cunning but they are not stupid.
>> IMHO, the big questions are "What is ScoMo hiding and why?"
On 7/4/20 6:59 pm, Karl Auer
I haven't read the papers and may not. Have you considered asking that
question to Andrew Probyn so he can ask about it in those briefings?
Or Phil Coorey even? Or other journos, maybe Kathryn Murphy.
Minister, where is the modelling you've actually been paying for from
.. ?
Jan
-
On Tue, 2020-04-07 at 18:10 +1000, Bernard Robertson-Dunn wrote:
> I can't believe they have been making decisions on the modelling they
> released today. They may cunning but they are not stupid.
>
> IMHO, the big questions are "What is he hiding and why?"
Two things. First off, they ARE
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