Re: [Marxism] Egypt yet again
== Rule #1: YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. == Hi Gary, Agree with you that current events in Egypt are absolutely pivotal. I understand the defence minister has been in Washington pleading for permission to send in the army. They have tried paramilitary repression and if that doesnt work there seems no other option. What I love about this is that it doesnt matter a shit what so and so pundit is saying on their blog - its all down to the people to decide what they can and cant do, and gleaning whatever can be gleaned from facebook/twitter, they really seem to believe they can break through. Lets hope so. Its starting to feel, again, like the aftermath of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Send list submissions to: Marxism@lists.econ.utah.edu Set your options at: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
Re: [Marxism] Egypt yet again
== Rule #1: YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. == Agreed. The situation is terribly exciting and pregnant with historical possibilities. We can follow some of the action live -- e.g. this a.m. protesters mobilizing in one locale to relieve pressure on another locale against the forces of repression -- on http://www.facebook.com/elshaheeed.co.uk Send list submissions to: Marxism@lists.econ.utah.edu Set your options at: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
Re: [Marxism] Egypt yet again
== Rule #1: YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. == I would love it if Gary was right. I am afraid, however, we don´t have our Kerensky. We have our Corazón Aquino. 2011/1/27 Gary MacLennan gary.maclenn...@gmail.com: Apologies to comrades for banging on about Egypt, but truly I feel it is the key to the downfall of the American Empire. What has cheered me up is firstly the collapse in the Egyptian stock exchange and secondly ElBaradei's declaration that he will return to Cairo. s/marxism/nmgoro%40gmail.com -- Néstor Gorojovsky El texto principal de este correo puede no ser de mi autoría Send list submissions to: Marxism@lists.econ.utah.edu Set your options at: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
Re: [Marxism] Egypt yet again
== Rule #1: YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. == In Algeria and Libya, the army is the force that shapes society, that controls all the resources. All changes, whether pro-Western or pro-Arab-Nationalism/Soviet-bloc, have come as the result of army coups. In Egypt, the army is also in charge, and the ruling elite is firmly pro-Washington. Egypt resembles Tunisia more than Algeria in that respect. But is there a divergeance of views within the Egyptian establishment somewhat similar to that which led to Ben Ali's downfall ? Well, both countries are gerontocracies. Mubarak is 82. All the Tunisian leaders of the CDR were over 60. In countries like Egypt and Tunisia, where the average age is 22, that means a whole middle-class generation is being denied a chance to express itself. The only option is to emigrate or to have (very) wealthy parents. In Egypt, Mubarak's death is a matter of months/years. This means, I suppose, that different factions are maneuvering behind the scenes. Some see the protests as a sign that the regime must be liberalized. Others, again I suppose, mainly contenders for the succession, see a need to increase their prestige with the military. The army command itself must be following what Washington says quite closely. And what Washington said today, to Western media at least, was : more democracy. Given that any army clique must rely on the US for leverage, there is probably a sense within the army that the US feels that the regime must evolve in a more liberal direction. It is a general feeling that the demands of the people cannot be ignored, if one wants to protect the long-term interests of the elite. These demands must be safely side-tracked. However, those is a position to succeed Mubarak, will call for an orderly succession which means the violent break-up of any demonstrations. Given the nature of the Egyptian military, a conscript-army that is highly centralized (since the conflict with Israel in th 60s and 70s), it is doubtful pro-democracy demonstrators and food-rioters will get more than bullets and token promises of more jobs and greater electoral freedom. ElBaradei is not, at present, well-connected with the regime. He might easily be coopted as a figurehead however. I really, really hope I'm wrong. Send list submissions to: Marxism@lists.econ.utah.edu Set your options at: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
Re: [Marxism] Egypt yet again
== Rule #1: YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. == He added: 'I am pretty sure that any freely and fairly elected government in Egypt will be a moderate one, but America is really pushing Egypt and pushing the whole Arab world into radicalization with this inept policy of supporting repression.' That could be, and ElBaradei may be Washington pre-positioning for a Mubarak replacement, but I'm not seeing much analysis as to why moderate democratic, that is, Washington friendly, democratic regimes haven't come into existence in the Middle East and North Africa. The reasons can be summed up in two names: Israel and Saudi Arabia. The first for some strange reason beyond that of normal realpolitik has been converted by the United States into an American colony implanted in that region, and therefore it and the U.S. will always be hostile to any Arab democratic-nationalist aspirations; the second is a post-feudal, theocratic-monarchical extended family tyranny - the ultimate tribal Arabs so beloved of neocons and U.S. foreign policy wonks - that parasitically draws life from petroleum rents, and will therefore also always be hostile to those same aspirations. Seen this way the U.S. approach is not really a case of ineptitude, but of no alternative to opening up a potentially lethal Pandora's' box. However, given that Washington's response is not a case of ineptitude, it's also possible to envision the possibility that the U.S. could take that risk and push for a democratic transition to a regime that would continue to collaborate with imperialism and its M.E. colony while containing the anti-imperialist and anti-Saudi tensions within itself, as in Iraq - but notably not as in Lebanon right now. Meanwhile, more power to the Arab revolution - may they go all the way! -Matt Send list submissions to: Marxism@lists.econ.utah.edu Set your options at: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
Re: [Marxism] Egypt yet again
== Rule #1: YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. == 2011/1/27 Gary MacLennan gary.maclenn...@gmail.com: Let us hope that the reluctance of the ElBaradei types means that they will struggle to get control of what looks increasingly like an uprising. the regime is in trouble and I interpret the ElBaradei maneuver as a fall back strategy by the Egyptian ruling class. I fully agree in your interpretation. What I tend to take in account -harsh experience along decades of political struggle in a semicolonial country- is that any comparison with the Russian Revolution must take into account the relative strengths of the local power and imperialism. Even Tsardom was stronger vis à vis the powers of those times than any semicolonial government today. In THIS sense, both Kerensky and the Bolsheviks acted in a different scenario than that of their eventual counterparts in Egypt. A yes, I am a bore, but there is the Arab national question at stake (please take capitals as italics): ONLY IN EGYPT? WOULD IT NOT BE LIKE A BOLSH REV CONSTRAINED TO THE MOSCOW REGION? While in Tsarist Russia the national question turned around the right to break away, in the Arab case the national question as well as in Latin America turns around the right to unite. Egypt is in this sense the Brazil of the Arab world. Nothing less, but NOTHING MORE. Think of the imperialist policy makers in this context... Relinquish Brazil only because some thousands have taken the streets? Relinquish Egypt for same reason? I don´t see the Washington policy makers even thinking of that alternative. Out of all this turmoil a side effect that I expect will be a return to the State Dept of the discarded Arabists to replace the Zionist ignorami. This line of thought is really interesting, and IMHO the best we can expect to happen now. Hope you are right. But it will be too late Hope you are right, again... Best. -- Néstor Gorojovsky El texto principal de este correo puede no ser de mi autoría Send list submissions to: Marxism@lists.econ.utah.edu Set your options at: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
