Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-20 Thread archer75--- via Mercedes
Quinine can be dangerous: https://www.peoplespharmacy.com/articles/is-quinine-in-tonic-water-safe .. MG via Mercedes wrote: > It still comes in glass bottles? All I've looked > at in the stores are in plastic. In any case your > method

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-20 Thread Craig via Mercedes
On Fri, 20 Mar 2020 11:58:23 -0500 MG via Mercedes wrote: > It still comes in glass bottles? All I've looked > at in the stores are in plastic. In any case your > method will probably work quite well, unless you > don't want to buy a bottle just to find out. Sorry, I presumed it came in

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-20 Thread Andrew Strasfogel via Mercedes
I wonder -is there "quinine flavoring" that subverts this proposed remedy? On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 12:59 PM MG via Mercedes wrote: > It still comes in glass bottles? All I've looked > at in the stores are in plastic. In any case your > method will probably work quite well, unless you > don't

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-20 Thread MG via Mercedes
It still comes in glass bottles? All I've looked at in the stores are in plastic. In any case your method will probably work quite well, unless you don't want to buy a bottle just to find out. MG Craig via Mercedes wrote: On Fri, 20 Mar 2020 11:55:36 -0500 MG via Mercedes wrote: If it

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-20 Thread Craig via Mercedes
On Fri, 20 Mar 2020 11:55:36 -0500 MG via Mercedes wrote: > If it says 'contains quinine' on the bottle then > it should. If I remember right quinine fluoresces > under UV light so you could hit it with your AC > leak detector light and see what happens But you cannot aim the light at the

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-20 Thread MG via Mercedes
If it says 'contains quinine' on the bottle then it should. If I remember right quinine fluoresces under UV light so you could hit it with your AC leak detector light and see what happens MG. Clay via Mercedes wrote: So, I should increase intake of Gin and Tonic? I wonder if Schweppes

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread archer75--- via Mercedes
Assuming a person has a normal immune system, a person should be immune for a period of months. This supposition is based on the nature of somewhat similar virus diseases. A university prof virologist, says the difficulty of making assumptions about this virus is that it has the

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread archer75--- via Mercedes
No, gin and hydroxychloroquine. Gerry > So, I should increase intake of Gin and Tonic? > > I wonder if Schweppes still uses original recipe in their tonic > > clay > > > On Mar 19, 2020, at 5:16 PM, archer75--- via Mercedes > > wrote: > > > > If chloroquine does prove to be the magic

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread OK Don via Mercedes
Umm - immunity to the common cold, another corona virus, doesn't work. There's no real reason to think that this corona virus will let you build immunity to it either. All it has to do is morph, change, evolve a bit, and off it goes. On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 11:35 PM archer75--- via Mercedes <

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread archer75--- via Mercedes
Worldwide we should already be building up a population of cured and immune workers who can go back to work in perfect safety and gradually get cities and towns back on a functional basis; the first item being the restoration of the medical system to the point where both coronavirus patients,

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Clay via Mercedes
So, I should increase intake of Gin and Tonic? I wonder if Schweppes still uses original recipe in their tonic clay > On Mar 19, 2020, at 5:16 PM, archer75--- via Mercedes > wrote: > > If chloroquine does prove to be the magic bullet that controls the > coronavirus epidemic, it will be

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Clay via Mercedes
Because the press is overly fond of sharing the data, I am able to keep track of the hotbed of US infection on an hourly basis, even though I no longer live in WA. Latest figure had 74 deaths out of 1376 confirmed infected. That seems consistent with the figure stated below. There was a 10%

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Buggered Benzmail via Mercedes
The Brits in India were on to something with the gin & tonic. I shall be practicing prophylaxis tomorrow evening. This isolation is tough but I’m going to try. --FT Sent from iPhone > On Mar 19, 2020, at 9:17 PM, archer75--- via Mercedes > wrote: > > If chloroquine does prove to be the

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread archer75--- via Mercedes
If chloroquine does prove to be the magic bullet that controls the coronavirus epidemic, it will be a remarkable coincidence since the organism it has been killing for 70+ years; a protzoan; is completely unrelated to the virus that causes coronavirus infection. That's based on current

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Curley McLain via Mercedes
I heard that on the radio today.  THey said countries where Malaria is rampant, and Chloroquine is widely used, there is no or almost no wuhan virus. Rick Knoble via Mercedes wrote on 3/19/20 11:51 AM: Chloroquine is being expedited as a treatment. It has worked in South Korea, and France.

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Floyd Thursby via Mercedes
The boy told me his hospital folks developed their own testing stuff a week or two ago and it was better --FT On 3/19/20 2:02 PM, Curt Raymond via Mercedes wrote: Oh man, last night I read up on the poop show that was the CDC on testing. When this is all done theres gonna be people at the

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Curt Raymond via Mercedes
If the entire world is sitting at 170,000 cases right now I find it extraordinarily unlikely that the US alone will have 10x that number in 4 weeks. Especially with China already over the hump and having seen zero new cases yesterday. Yes I assume the Chinese are either lying about no new

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Curt Raymond via Mercedes
I've basically stopped listening to any "I heard" because its probably all rubbish.Mild symptoms don't result in lung damage, that doesn't pass the sniff test. If there was lung damage, especially if it was permanent, the symptoms wouldn't be mild. -Curt On Thursday, March 19, 2020,

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Allan Streib via Mercedes
Smoking is quite prevalent in China also. Meade Dillon via Mercedes writes: > Italy has an older population than the US and much older than South > Korea, and apparently they stay skinny by smoking, there is your > explanation for a higher death rate there. > - > Max > Charleston SC

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Curt Raymond via Mercedes
Oh man, last night I read up on the poop show that was the CDC on testing. When this is all done theres gonna be people at the CDC that will have some 'splaining to do.10 days they sat on failed test kits "We'll work it out." finally private labs worked it out once it was clear the CDC never

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Curt Raymond via Mercedes
Its also kind of a Faustian bargain too. If we "protect" ourselves this way but destroy our economy whats the point? You'll be alive but have no money for food or housing... -Curt On Wednesday, March 18, 2020, 11:19:19 PM EDT, Curley McLain via Mercedes wrote: right.   and the

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Andrew Strasfogel via Mercedes
Oh please. I never heard Trump complain about the lack of attention to a possible pandemic in January. On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:38 PM Dimitri Seretakis via Mercedes < mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > Right and in January Congress was too busy impeaching the president rather > than legislating.

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Dimitri Seretakis via Mercedes
Right and in January Congress was too busy impeaching the president rather than legislating. I can’t image that helped the situation. Sent from my iPhone > On Mar 19, 2020, at 8:08 AM, Meade Dillon via Mercedes > wrote: > > I think that the law / regulations set in place by Congress

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Rick Knoble via Mercedes
Chloroquine is being expedited as a treatment. It has worked in South Korea, and France. There is another anti malaria drug, but I don't recall the name. These can also be taken as a prophylaxis for those are highest risk. Home run. Possibly a grand slam. Rick

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Allan Streib via Mercedes
The WHO test was never offered to us. "No discussions occurred between WHO and CDC about WHO providing COVID-19 tests to the United States," said WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris. "This is consistent with experience since the United States does not ordinarily rely on WHO for reagents or diagnostic

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Meade Dillon via Mercedes
Forgot to add that in China, ~82,000 cases, ~3300 deaths. - Max Charleston SC On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 8:32 AM Meade Dillon wrote: > Then and now: > > H1N1: From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, a study estimated that > approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million),

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Meade Dillon via Mercedes
Then and now: H1N1: From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, a study estimated that approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. COVID-19 As of today: ~9400 cases,

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Curley McLain via Mercedes
WHO is as believable as the chicoms. Meade Dillon via Mercedes wrote on 3/19/20 7:07 AM: I think that the law / regulations set in place by Congress prevented us from using any test developed by private industry or outside the US, back in January. Hindsight is 20-20. Remember that in

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Curley McLain via Mercedes
CHICOMS ARE SAYING YOUNG healthy people who have been later scanned (Did not say ct or mri) show 20% permanent lung damage.   no confirmation from other areas.   I don't see any reason why they would lie about this, but who knows. They lie about everything else. Peter Frederick via Mercedes

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Meade Dillon via Mercedes
I think that the law / regulations set in place by Congress prevented us from using any test developed by private industry or outside the US, back in January. Hindsight is 20-20. Remember that in mid-January, WHO was parroting the CHICOM lie that this virus was not able to be transmitted from

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Meade Dillon via Mercedes
Italy has an older population than the US and much older than South Korea, and apparently they stay skinny by smoking, there is your explanation for a higher death rate there. - Max Charleston SC On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 7:12 AM Peter Frederick via Mercedes < mercedes@okiebenz.com>

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Peter Frederick via Mercedes
4-5% of those infected, so far as the available data goes. May be lower due to lack of complete screening and the fact that infections can be mild enough they don't get reported. Given that Itailians are in general a little healthier than US citizens (lower BMI, more exercise, etc) and those

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-19 Thread Scott Ritchey via Mercedes
The key question is 4-5% of what? The total population? The number of estimated cases? The number that tested positive? The number sick enough to be hospitalized? I also heard that some young/healthy folks infected but with minimal symptoms suffered (permanent? long term?)lung damage. >

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-18 Thread Peter Frederick via Mercedes
Well, if we had used the WHO test for the novel coronavirus (Like South Korea did) when it was offered to us in late January we likely could have prevented the vast majority of the cases we have now because we could have actually tracked exposure. WHO is far from perfect, but so is the Senate.

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-18 Thread Curley McLain via Mercedes
right.   and the theory is that by having people try to be hermits, we can lower the peak numbers and spread the hopital load out over a longer time.   Sounds good on paper.   We are old enough to remember when we DID have a lot more hospital beds.   Hospitals were closed and torn down or

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-18 Thread Peter Frederick via Mercedes
More to the point, how many people will need hospitalization to survive, and for how long. Doctors in Italy are being forced to decide who gets life saving care already, and the case load is still climbing. At the current rate of increase in caseload in the US we will hit 1.5 million

Re: [MBZ] Case in point: How to lie with statistics

2020-03-18 Thread Andrew Strasfogel via Mercedes
The major point of difference is that millions have resistance through their flu shots, whereas zero are protected against COVID 19. If there were no flu vaccine how many deaths would there be? On Wed, Mar 18, 2020 at 10:35 PM Curley McLain via Mercedes < mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > I