Re: [meteorite-list] Asteroid may be set to slam Mars in Jan.
--- David Pensenstadler [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: My guess is that the asteroid will take out the Mars Odyssey (THEMIS) satellite before hitting Opportunity on the surface. Or, as a friend of mine said, Please, please don't hit the Face! If it DOES hit Mars, I wonder what observations visual amateur astronomers can make of it? I think if it kicks up a dust storm that should be easy to see. The impact flash seems problematic. 3 MT might be visible on the Moon from Earth, but Mars? As soon as the astrometry comes in, these things will all have to be determined fast--if there indeed is an impact. Francis Graham Looking for last minute shopping deals? Find them fast with Yahoo! Search. http://tools.search.yahoo.com/newsearch/category.php?category=shopping __ http://www.meteoritecentral.com Meteorite-list mailing list Meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
Re: [meteorite-list] Asteroid may be set to slam Mars in Jan.
It's interesting to speculate on the effect a second massive, observed planetary impact in 15 years (or 3 in 100, if you count Tunguska) would have on policy makers. One might expect that it would redouble investment in the search for, and technologies for dealing with, PHAs. One might hope that even the most rabid catastrophe-deniers among the political elite would be encouraged to act... but then, maybe I'm still on a Happy Hangover from an excessive Christmas Lunch ;-) M Francis Graham wrote: If it DOES hit Mars, I wonder what observations visual amateur astronomers can make of it? I think if it kicks up a dust storm that should be easy to see. __ http://www.meteoritecentral.com Meteorite-list mailing list Meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
Re: [meteorite-list] Asteroid may be set to slam Mars in Jan.
Hi, Mark, Francis, List, Heck of a good question implied here (what does it take to stir the inert?). I suggest a small impact crater on the White House lawn! Or in the Washington Mall! A nick in the Capitol Dome? Take one tacky corner off Parliament? A small Paris suburb? (It would never be missed.) Even better than an observation of a Mars impact from Earth would be an observation from Mars. Much better view. Of course, we don't have a LiveCam in orbit, but the question would be: could we jury-rig something to snap the moment? And don't forget one Rover is on the edge of the impact circle; snapshot of the horizon at the right moment? We can cheer unabashedly for an impact on Mars, as the Martians have zero political influence and get no sympathy from the planet they have fictionally invaded so often. I'm rooting for the asteroid, so to speak. Sterling K. Webb - Original Message - From: Mark Crawford [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: Francis Graham [EMAIL PROTECTED] Cc: meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com Sent: Wednesday, December 26, 2007 5:12 AM Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Asteroid may be set to slam Mars in Jan. It's interesting to speculate on the effect a second massive, observed planetary impact in 15 years (or 3 in 100, if you count Tunguska) would have on policy makers. One might expect that it would redouble investment in the search for, and technologies for dealing with, PHAs. One might hope that even the most rabid catastrophe-deniers among the political elite would be encouraged to act... but then, maybe I'm still on a Happy Hangover from an excessive Christmas Lunch ;-) M Francis Graham wrote: If it DOES hit Mars, I wonder what observations visual amateur astronomers can make of it? I think if it kicks up a dust storm that should be easy to see. __ http://www.meteoritecentral.com Meteorite-list mailing list Meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list __ http://www.meteoritecentral.com Meteorite-list mailing list Meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
Re: [meteorite-list] Asteroid may be set to slam Mars in Jan.
Scientists say the object currently has a 1-in-75 chance of colliding with the planet, but that probability is expected to go down over the next month as more observations are made. Let me guess... it has a 74 in 75 probability to go down and 1 in 75 chance to go up? I'm always amused over this formulation. It always appears like a reassuring message, Don't worry, it will go away. If the asteroid does smash into Mars, it'll likely aim near the equator, ... What? They don't know if it will hit, but if it hit Mars it will do it near the equator. Is this a statistical centre of where it will hit because the equator lies halfway between the poles. Okay, maybe the error in the predicted orbit is really small and just overlaps Mars at one side of the planet Anyhow, a really interesting scenario and I hope I will be able to see a major impact on Mars with my own eyes through the big telescope in the local observatory. /Göran tracy latimer wrote: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22350742/ Watch the skies! We may be getting (okay a LONG time down the road) more Martian meteorites...:) Tracy Latimer _ The best games are on Xbox 360. Click here for a special offer on an Xbox 360 Console. http://www.xbox.com/en-US/hardware/wheretobuy/ __ http://www.meteoritecentral.com Meteorite-list mailing list Meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list __ http://www.meteoritecentral.com Meteorite-list mailing list Meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
Re: [meteorite-list] Asteroid may be set to slam Mars in Jan.
Hi Göran: It is all in the timing. If I remember correctly, when orbits are calculated, the greatest uncertainty is in the time of perihelion passage (where it is in its orbit). So, while they know the inclination of the orbit (where it will be when it crosses the orbit of Mars), the greatest question is will Mars still be there (or not there yet). That is the greatest uncertainty. With a better orbit (and better timing), the untertainty goes down and so the target ellipse gets smaller. When it is big, there is a greater likelihood that Mars will be in it. When the ellipse gets smaller, the likelihood is that Mars will not be in it. Larry On Fri, December 21, 2007 1:13 am, Göran Axelsson wrote: Scientists say the object currently has a 1-in-75 chance of colliding with the planet, but that probability is expected to go down over the next month as more observations are made. Let me guess... it has a 74 in 75 probability to go down and 1 in 75 chance to go up? I'm always amused over this formulation. It always appears like a reassuring message, Don't worry, it will go away. If the asteroid does smash into Mars, it'll likely aim near the equator, ... What? They don't know if it will hit, but if it hit Mars it will do it near the equator. Is this a statistical centre of where it will hit because the equator lies halfway between the poles. Okay, maybe the error in the predicted orbit is really small and just overlaps Mars at one side of the planet Anyhow, a really interesting scenario and I hope I will be able to see a major impact on Mars with my own eyes through the big telescope in the local observatory. /Göran tracy latimer wrote: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22350742/ Watch the skies! We may be getting (okay a LONG time down the road) more Martian meteorites...:) Tracy Latimer _ The best games are on Xbox 360. Click here for a special offer on an Xbox 360 Console. http://www.xbox.com/en-US/hardware/wheretobuy/ __ http://www.meteoritecentral.com Meteorite-list mailing list Meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list __ http://www.meteoritecentral.com Meteorite-list mailing list Meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list __ http://www.meteoritecentral.com Meteorite-list mailing list Meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
Re: [meteorite-list] Asteroid may be set to slam Mars in Jan.
There is a NASA press release coming out on this today. We'll also post some graphics on the NEO website. Stay tuned. Ron Baalke __ http://www.meteoritecentral.com Meteorite-list mailing list Meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
Re: [meteorite-list] Asteroid may be set to slam Mars in Jan.
My guess is that the asteroid will take out the Mars Odyssey (THEMIS) satellite before hitting Opportunity on the surface. Happy Holidays to all Dave --- [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Hi Göran: It is all in the timing. If I remember correctly, when orbits are calculated, the greatest uncertainty is in the time of perihelion passage (where it is in its orbit). So, while they know the inclination of the orbit (where it will be when it crosses the orbit of Mars), the greatest question is will Mars still be there (or not there yet). That is the greatest uncertainty. With a better orbit (and better timing), the untertainty goes down and so the target ellipse gets smaller. When it is big, there is a greater likelihood that Mars will be in it. When the ellipse gets smaller, the likelihood is that Mars will not be in it. Larry On Fri, December 21, 2007 1:13 am, Göran Axelsson wrote: Scientists say the object currently has a 1-in-75 chance of colliding with the planet, but that probability is expected to go down over the next month as more observations are made. Let me guess... it has a 74 in 75 probability to go down and 1 in 75 chance to go up? I'm always amused over this formulation. It always appears like a reassuring message, Don't worry, it will go away. If the asteroid does smash into Mars, it'll likely aim near the equator, ... What? They don't know if it will hit, but if it hit Mars it will do it near the equator. Is this a statistical centre of where it will hit because the equator lies halfway between the poles. Okay, maybe the error in the predicted orbit is really small and just overlaps Mars at one side of the planet Anyhow, a really interesting scenario and I hope I will be able to see a major impact on Mars with my own eyes through the big telescope in the local observatory. /Göran tracy latimer wrote: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22350742/ Watch the skies! We may be getting (okay a LONG time down the road) more Martian meteorites...:) Tracy Latimer _ The best games are on Xbox 360. Click here for a special offer on an Xbox 360 Console. http://www.xbox.com/en-US/hardware/wheretobuy/ __ http://www.meteoritecentral.com Meteorite-list mailing list Meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list __ http://www.meteoritecentral.com Meteorite-list mailing list Meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list __ http://www.meteoritecentral.com Meteorite-list mailing list Meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list Never miss a thing. Make Yahoo your home page. http://www.yahoo.com/r/hs __ http://www.meteoritecentral.com Meteorite-list mailing list Meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
Re: [meteorite-list] Asteroid may be set to slam Mars in Jan.
Big foot in mouth... Well, I only managed to prove my inability to understand orbital calculations. It is of course easier to measure speed and position orthogonally to the plane of the planet system. Thanks for giving the necessary explanation to kick my brain in the right orbit. :-) Regards, Göran [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Hi Göran: It is all in the timing. If I remember correctly, when orbits are calculated, the greatest uncertainty is in the time of perihelion passage (where it is in its orbit). So, while they know the inclination of the orbit (where it will be when it crosses the orbit of Mars), the greatest question is will Mars still be there (or not there yet). That is the greatest uncertainty. With a better orbit (and better timing), the untertainty goes down and so the target ellipse gets smaller. When it is big, there is a greater likelihood that Mars will be in it. When the ellipse gets smaller, the likelihood is that Mars will not be in it. Larry On Fri, December 21, 2007 1:13 am, Göran Axelsson wrote: Scientists say the object currently has a 1-in-75 chance of colliding with the planet, but that probability is expected to go down over the next month as more observations are made. Let me guess... it has a 74 in 75 probability to go down and 1 in 75 chance to go up? I'm always amused over this formulation. It always appears like a reassuring message, Don't worry, it will go away. If the asteroid does smash into Mars, it'll likely aim near the equator, ... What? They don't know if it will hit, but if it hit Mars it will do it near the equator. Is this a statistical centre of where it will hit because the equator lies halfway between the poles. Okay, maybe the error in the predicted orbit is really small and just overlaps Mars at one side of the planet Anyhow, a really interesting scenario and I hope I will be able to see a major impact on Mars with my own eyes through the big telescope in the local observatory. /Göran tracy latimer wrote: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22350742/ Watch the skies! We may be getting (okay a LONG time down the road) more Martian meteorites...:) Tracy Latimer _ The best games are on Xbox 360. Click here for a special offer on an Xbox 360 Console. http://www.xbox.com/en-US/hardware/wheretobuy/ __ http://www.meteoritecentral.com Meteorite-list mailing list Meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list __ http://www.meteoritecentral.com Meteorite-list mailing list Meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list __ http://www.meteoritecentral.com Meteorite-list mailing list Meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
[meteorite-list] Asteroid may be set to slam Mars in Jan.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22350742/ Watch the skies! We may be getting (okay a LONG time down the road) more Martian meteorites...:) Tracy Latimer _ The best games are on Xbox 360. Click here for a special offer on an Xbox 360 Console. http://www.xbox.com/en-US/hardware/wheretobuy/ __ http://www.meteoritecentral.com Meteorite-list mailing list Meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
