Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Jay Hennigan]

On 2/22/21 11:26, Mel Beckman wrote:

What offended you? The term “Global Warmist”? It’s an accurate description of 
people who hold that climate change is causing more frequent and severe 
weather, due to heating of the atmosphere.

And your argument about “Forbes for something related to science” fails on the 
classic logical fallacy “appeal to authority”. Just because Forbes states 
easily verifiable public facts doesn’t make them untrustworthy. Scientific 
knowledge is best established by evidence and experiment rather than argued 
through authority by “consensus”. Science is not a consensus enterprise.


I'm not offended in any way, but I did note that the cited link is an 
opinion piece that is more than seven years old. Forbes states both of 
these facts before the article even begins.


It claims that NOAA data shows hurricanes declining. Here's the NOAA 
graph. Judge for yourself. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tornadoes/202013


The opinion piece also claims that hurricanes are declining in number. 
These numbers are also inaccurate (and at least seven years out of date).


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane_season
http://www.stormfax.com/huryear.htm

In any case, it wasn't Forbes stating easily verifiable public facts. It 
was Forbes publishing the opinion of the president of a petroleum 
industry lobbying group who is now listed as a "former contributor".


Did I mention that the cited data is over seven years out of date? 
Following the links shows that some of the quoted sources were from 2005.


--
Jay Hennigan - j...@west.net
Network Engineering - CCIE #7880
503 897-8550 - WB6RDV

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Rich Kulawiec]

On Mon, Feb 22, 2021 at 08:44:32PM +0200, Saku Ytti wrote:
> On Mon, 22 Feb 2021 at 20:28, Rich Kulawiec  wrote:
> 
> > right: artificial sweeteners are safe, WMDs were in Iraq, and Anna Nicole
> 
> Hope you meant to write 'unsafe', as the conspiracy theory is that
> aspartame is unsafe, the science says it is safe.

Those last three points are a quote from a movie -- which is why I included
the shout-out to Levon Helm (warning, spoilers, the quote's at about 2:00):

Shooter: Levon Helm as Mr Rate - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVw8FPIvOZc

I included them as a joke because anyone who disputes AGW at this
point *is* a joke and should be laughed out of the room.

Less snarktastically, a very good starting point for people who want to
understand the science of global warming is this document:

Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_all_final.pdf

It's exhaustive in its coverage (which is why it's 1500+ pages) and reading
it will require basic literacy in math/stat and physical science.  But it's
part of the required homework for anyone trying to understand this topic.
The 2021 version is now in preparation and if things go well, it should be
out mid-to-late summer.

Another highly useful document is:

Fourth National Climate Assessment
https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/downloads/NCA4_2018_FullReport.pdf

which also clocks in at 1500+ pages.  This document has both a broader focus
(for example, it discusses impacts and mitigation) and a narrower focus
(it's US-centric).  It's also written for a more general audience and
requires less math/science background for comprehension, so I recommend
that anybody who struggles to get through the one above try this instead.

Also: this one is arguably more useful for NANOG/operational/planning
purposes.  I think it'd be a good read for anyone who's trying to figure
out what's going to happen to their physical assets/locations, or for
anyone who's trying to plan where to put things and how to build them.

Additional resources:

Climate Change and Infrastructure, Urban Systems, and Vulnerability
Technical Report for the US DoE
Thomas Wilbanks and Steven J. Fernandez

(This one is also useful for NANOG denizens.  Chapter 5 on risk mitigation
strategies is particularly interesting.)

The Encyclopedia of Global Warming and Climate Change, 2ed 
S. George Philander, editor

(A general reference.  Having this handy while reading the IPCC report
I mentioned above can be helpful.)

Atmospheric Thermodynamics - Elementary Physics and Chemistry
Gerald R. North and Tatiana L. Erukhimova

(You'll need integral and differential calculus for this one, and a previous
course in introductory thermodynamics will help.  This is not about climate
-- or weather -- per se, but it provides some of the fundamental science
necessary to understand both.)

Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change
Committee of Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

(Attribution science is relatively new but is making rapid progress.  The
ability to look back and demonstrate causal relationships is going to be
invaluable as we look forward.)

rsk

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Tom Beecher]

The issue is that while there are lots of information out there detailing
the risks of variable rate supply plans, the majority of consumers are not
equipped to properly understand that risk; these are complex markets in the
best of times. Many of these companies are also borderline predatory in how
they market their services. It's the standard model you see in many
industries; highlight the savings, fine print or hide the risk, and then
when the consumer gets screwed , point and say 'well they should have
understood what they signed up for!'. That's complete trash when it comes
to life critical utilities.


On Wed, Feb 17, 2021 at 7:25 PM Yang Yu  wrote:

> On Wed, Feb 17, 2021 at 10:46 AM John Sage  wrote:
> > This article is an interest description of Texas electricity pricing for
> > one provider and for the market in general:
> >
> https://www.dallasnews.com/business/energy/2021/02/16/electricity-retailer-griddys-unusual-plea-to-texas-customers-leave-now-before-you-get-a-big-bill/
>
> That is far from the market in general.
>
> Most people use a fixed rate plan (can easily find one without rebate
> for <10c/kwh after taxes & fees). The customer would have to make an
> explicit decision to pick a variable/market rate plan (excluded by
> default on http://powertochoose.org/) with higher risk and cheaper
> electricity when the wholesale price is low.
>
>
> http://www.puc.texas.gov/consumer/facts/factsheets/elecfacts/Electricplans.pdf
>
> >Changing Rate (Variable) Plans have rates per kWh that can vary according
> to a method determined solely by the provider and may be dependent on
> market changes and other exceptions beyond the provider's control
> >Market Rate (Indexed) Plans have rates per kWh that can vary according to
> pre-defined publicly available indices or information and other exceptions
> beyond the provider's control
>
>
> > The highest the price can go to is $9/kWh (which has only ever happened
> 0.005% of the time.) Most of the time though, 96.9% to be exact, it is
> below the Texas Average of 6.8¢/kWh
> https://www.griddy.com/texas/learn-more#learn-pricing
>

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Ben Cannon]

You guys build how you want. At 6x7 we are building to prepare for possible 
climactic shifts.  The origin need not be anthropogenic, but that doesn’t look 
good.

“Doing nothing” isn’t really an option, and “doing what republicans want 
because they say so and they’re my dad” isn’t a good argument.


Nor is it a personality.

Ms. Lady Benjamin PD Cannon, ASCE
6x7 Networks & 6x7 Telecom, LLC 
CEO 
b...@6by7.net
"The only fully end-to-end encrypted global telecommunications company in the 
world.”

FCC License KJ6FJJ

Sent from my iPhone via RFC1149.

> On Feb 22, 2021, at 11:35 AM, Mel Beckman  wrote:
> 
> Rich,
> 
> Calling my opposing argument “trash”, and then falsely linking it to 
> unrelated theories on vaccines, evolution, moon landings, and dietary 
> supplements, is intellectually dishonest and professionally rude. Why don’t 
> you respond to the facts raised in the article? Does your religion not permit 
> that?
> 
> Either weather events are getting worse, or they aren’t. I provided solid 
> evidence that they are diminishing. The truth of this issue is important to 
> NANOG, because we build the infrastructure that runs the Internet, and we 
> can’t afford to waste finite resources on alarmist claims. 
> 
> -mel
> 
>> On Feb 22, 2021, at 10:23 AM, Rich Kulawiec  wrote:
>> 
>>> On Mon, Feb 22, 2021 at 05:48:06PM +, Mel Beckman wrote:
>>> Sorry Global Warmists,
>> 
>> Right.  Sure.  Also, the earth is 6,000 years old (and flat), the moon
>> landings were faked, creationism is real, dinosaurs and humans co-existed,
>> vaccines cause autism, Elvis is alive, and...how does that line go?  Oh,
>> right: artificial sweeteners are safe, WMDs were in Iraq, and Anna Nicole
>> married for love. [shout-out to Levon Helm]
>> 
>> This trash doesn't deserve rebuttal: it deserves ridicule.
>> 
>> ---rsk
> 

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Mel Beckman]

Brandon,

Actually, no, I don’t have to do science to object to claims made by 
scientists. Even when there is a consensus. I can simply cite data, and it is 
the duty of the person making the claim to defend their theory.

If you’re going to defend it for them, then you need to cite countering data, 
not an “argument from authority”. It should be a simple matter to find data 
supporting the claim that weather is getting more severe, rather than just more 
costly, which is the usual conflation by climate warmists.

 -mel

On Feb 22, 2021, at 11:38 AM, Brandon Svec 
mailto:bs...@teamonesolutions.com>> wrote:


OK, I looked closer.  I see it is a self titled opinion piece so there is that. 
 Next, I see all the links in the article go to questionable sites (not .edu or 
scientific organizations, etc.)  except one cherry picked NOAA stat for a 
single event type for a single year.  Last, the writer is the president of a 
right wing anti science lobbying group called "Spark of Freedom" funded by 
Exxon Mobil.

Look, I and most everyone on this list are not qualified, experienced climate 
scientists.  However, I think when you are not an expert you should respect and 
believe what experts say as a group.  Picking outliers and sharing opinions of 
obviously unqualified and biased people is reprehensible and dishonest as far 
as I am concerned.

If you truly believe the scientific consensus around climate change is wrong 
you are going to have to do a lot more than share links.  You will have to do 
science and prove it.



Best.


On Mon, Feb 22, 2021 at 11:27 AM Mel Beckman 
mailto:m...@beckman.org>> wrote:
What offended you? The term “Global Warmist”? It’s an accurate description of 
people who hold that climate change is causing more frequent and severe 
weather, due to heating of the atmosphere.

And your argument about “Forbes for something related to science” fails on the 
classic logical fallacy “appeal to authority”. Just because Forbes states 
easily verifiable public facts doesn’t make them untrustworthy. Scientific 
knowledge is best established by evidence and experiment rather than argued 
through authority by “consensus”. Science is not a consensus enterprise.

 -mel

> On Feb 22, 2021, at 10:16 AM, Brandon Svec via NANOG 
> mailto:nanog@nanog.org>> wrote:
>
>
>
>> On Feb 22, 2021, at 9:56 AM, Mel Beckman 
>> mailto:m...@beckman.org>> wrote:
>>
>> Sorry Global Warmists,
>
>
> Stopped taking you seriously or reading further right there.  Well, that and 
> linking to Forbes for something related to science.
>
> Best.

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Mike Hammett]

I can argue about this all day on Facebook or Twitter (and sometimes do, 
whether trolling or serious depends on the day). Let's reign it back in to 
network operations concerns. 




- 
Mike Hammett 
Intelligent Computing Solutions 
http://www.ics-il.com 

Midwest-IX 
http://www.midwest-ix.com 

- Original Message -

From: "Brandon Svec via NANOG"  
To: "Mel Beckman"  
Cc: "Rich Kulawiec" , nanog@nanog.org 
Sent: Monday, February 22, 2021 1:43:22 PM 
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts 












On Mon, Feb 22, 2021 at 11:37 AM Mel Beckman < m...@beckman.org > wrote: 




Either weather events are getting worse, or they aren’t. 




No, nothing is so black and white. Certainly not science. 


I provided solid evidence that they are diminishing. 




No, you didn't. You shared an opinion piece written by the president of a 
science denying lobbying group funded by Exxon Mobil 


The truth of this issue is important to NANOG, because we build the 
infrastructure that runs the Internet, and we can’t afford to waste finite 
resources on alarmist claims. 





That I can partially agree with. I would say even if science is 100% wrong 
about climate change and what is causing it, it is still a good investment to 
prepare for the unexpected and unprecedented when it comes to building and 
supporting resilient systems. 


Best 



> On Feb 22, 2021, at 10:23 AM, Rich Kulawiec < r...@gsp.org > wrote: 
> 
> On Mon, Feb 22, 2021 at 05:48:06PM +, Mel Beckman wrote: 
>> Sorry Global Warmists, 
> 
> Right. Sure. Also, the earth is 6,000 years old (and flat), the moon 
> landings were faked, creationism is real, dinosaurs and humans co-existed, 
> vaccines cause autism, Elvis is alive, and...how does that line go? Oh, 
> right: artificial sweeteners are safe, WMDs were in Iraq, and Anna Nicole 
> married for love. [shout-out to Levon Helm] 
> 
> This trash doesn't deserve rebuttal: it deserves ridicule. 
> 
> ---rsk 

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Brandon Svec via NANOG]

On Mon, Feb 22, 2021 at 11:37 AM Mel Beckman  wrote:

>
>
> Either weather events are getting worse, or they aren’t.


No, nothing is so black and white.  Certainly not science.

> I provided solid evidence that they are diminishing.


No, you didn't.  You shared an opinion piece written by the president of a
science denying lobbying group funded by Exxon Mobil

> The truth of this issue is important to NANOG, because we build the
> infrastructure that runs the Internet, and we can’t afford to waste finite
> resources on alarmist claims.
>

That I can partially agree with.  I would say even if science is 100% wrong
about climate change and what is causing it, it is still a good
investment to prepare for the unexpected and unprecedented when it comes to
building and supporting resilient systems.

Best

>
>
> > On Feb 22, 2021, at 10:23 AM, Rich Kulawiec  wrote:
> >
> > On Mon, Feb 22, 2021 at 05:48:06PM +, Mel Beckman wrote:
> >> Sorry Global Warmists,
> >
> > Right.  Sure.  Also, the earth is 6,000 years old (and flat), the moon
> > landings were faked, creationism is real, dinosaurs and humans
> co-existed,
> > vaccines cause autism, Elvis is alive, and...how does that line go?  Oh,
> > right: artificial sweeteners are safe, WMDs were in Iraq, and Anna Nicole
> > married for love. [shout-out to Levon Helm]
> >
> > This trash doesn't deserve rebuttal: it deserves ridicule.
> >
> > ---rsk
>
>

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Brandon Svec via NANOG]

OK, I looked closer.  I see it is a self titled opinion piece so there is
that.  Next, I see all the links in the article go to questionable sites
(not .edu or scientific organizations, etc.)  except one cherry picked NOAA
stat for a single event type for a single year.  Last, the writer is the
president of a right wing anti science lobbying group called "Spark of
Freedom" funded by Exxon Mobil.

Look, I and most everyone on this list are not qualified, experienced
climate scientists.  However, I think when you are not an expert you should
respect and believe what experts say as a group.  Picking outliers and
sharing opinions of obviously unqualified and biased people is
reprehensible and dishonest as far as I am concerned.

If you truly believe the scientific consensus around climate change is
wrong you are going to have to do a lot more than share links.  You will
have to do science and prove it.



Best.


On Mon, Feb 22, 2021 at 11:27 AM Mel Beckman  wrote:

> What offended you? The term “Global Warmist”? It’s an accurate description
> of people who hold that climate change is causing more frequent and severe
> weather, due to heating of the atmosphere.
>
> And your argument about “Forbes for something related to science” fails on
> the classic logical fallacy “appeal to authority”. Just because Forbes
> states easily verifiable public facts doesn’t make them untrustworthy.
> Scientific knowledge is best established by evidence and experiment rather
> than argued through authority by “consensus”. Science is not a consensus
> enterprise.
>
>  -mel
>
> > On Feb 22, 2021, at 10:16 AM, Brandon Svec via NANOG 
> wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> >> On Feb 22, 2021, at 9:56 AM, Mel Beckman  wrote:
> >>
> >> Sorry Global Warmists,
> >
> >
> > Stopped taking you seriously or reading further right there.  Well, that
> and linking to Forbes for something related to science.
> >
> > Best.
>
>

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Mel Beckman]

Rich,
 
Calling my opposing argument “trash”, and then falsely linking it to unrelated 
theories on vaccines, evolution, moon landings, and dietary supplements, is 
intellectually dishonest and professionally rude. Why don’t you respond to the 
facts raised in the article? Does your religion not permit that?

Either weather events are getting worse, or they aren’t. I provided solid 
evidence that they are diminishing. The truth of this issue is important to 
NANOG, because we build the infrastructure that runs the Internet, and we can’t 
afford to waste finite resources on alarmist claims. 

 -mel
 
> On Feb 22, 2021, at 10:23 AM, Rich Kulawiec  wrote:
> 
> On Mon, Feb 22, 2021 at 05:48:06PM +, Mel Beckman wrote:
>> Sorry Global Warmists,
> 
> Right.  Sure.  Also, the earth is 6,000 years old (and flat), the moon
> landings were faked, creationism is real, dinosaurs and humans co-existed,
> vaccines cause autism, Elvis is alive, and...how does that line go?  Oh,
> right: artificial sweeteners are safe, WMDs were in Iraq, and Anna Nicole
> married for love. [shout-out to Levon Helm]
> 
> This trash doesn't deserve rebuttal: it deserves ridicule.
> 
> ---rsk

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Mel Beckman]

Rod,

I brought up a single objection to a single claim. You choose to dismiss me 
because I “don’t accept the basic premise.” Why don’t you respond to the 
specific facts I cited? Why resort to personal attacks?

Name calling is the last resort of the man with no argument.

 -mel

On Feb 22, 2021, at 10:19 AM, Rod Beck 
mailto:rod.b...@unitedcablecompany.com>> wrote:

Mel, just please remove yourself from this conversation if you don't accept the 
basic premise. Go and find those missing votes in Georgia.

Best,

-R.


From: NANOG 
mailto:nanog-bounces+rod.beck=unitedcablecompany@nanog.org>>
 on behalf of Brandon Svec via NANOG mailto:nanog@nanog.org>>
Sent: Monday, February 22, 2021 7:16 PM
To: nanog@nanog.org<mailto:nanog@nanog.org> 
mailto:nanog@nanog.org>>
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts



> On Feb 22, 2021, at 9:56 AM, Mel Beckman 
> mailto:m...@beckman.org>> wrote:
>
> Sorry Global Warmists,


Stopped taking you seriously or reading further right there.  Well, that and 
linking to Forbes for something related to science.

Best.

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Mel Beckman]

What offended you? The term “Global Warmist”? It’s an accurate description of 
people who hold that climate change is causing more frequent and severe 
weather, due to heating of the atmosphere. 

And your argument about “Forbes for something related to science” fails on the 
classic logical fallacy “appeal to authority”. Just because Forbes states 
easily verifiable public facts doesn’t make them untrustworthy. Scientific 
knowledge is best established by evidence and experiment rather than argued 
through authority by “consensus”. Science is not a consensus enterprise.

 -mel

> On Feb 22, 2021, at 10:16 AM, Brandon Svec via NANOG  wrote:
> 
> 
> 
>> On Feb 22, 2021, at 9:56 AM, Mel Beckman  wrote:
>> 
>> Sorry Global Warmists,
> 
> 
> Stopped taking you seriously or reading further right there.  Well, that and 
> linking to Forbes for something related to science. 
> 
> Best.

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Mel Beckman]

Saku,

I see that not one of your references addresses the facts pointed out by 
Forbes. Rather than a shotgun response, can you counter the evidence cited that 
disproves the claim that climate events are getting more frequent and severe? 

it’s a fair topic for NANOG. The idea that countervailing evidence cannot be 
tolerated is the domain of religion, not science. Science accepts, and in fact 
encourages, such evidence. 

 -mel

> On Feb 22, 2021, at 10:01 AM, Saku Ytti  wrote:
> 
> On Mon, 22 Feb 2021 at 19:57, Mel Beckman  wrote:
> 
>> Sorry Global Warmists, But Extreme Weather Events Are Becoming Less Extreme
>> Just about every type of extreme weather event is becoming less frequent and 
>> less severe in recent years as our planet continues its modest warming in 
>> the wake of the Little Ice Age. While global warming activists attempt to 
>> spin a narrative of ever-worsening weather, the objective facts tell a 
>> completely different story.
>> 
>> https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2013/05/08/sorry-global-warmists-but-extreme-weather-events-are-becoming-less-extreme/?sh=46c3b30e55a4
> 
> https://grist.org/series/skeptics/
> https://skepticalscience.com/argument.php
> http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/start-here/
> 
> --
>  ++ytti, not a climate scientist so chooses to believe them

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Stephen Satchell]

When I lived in Oklahoma, the mantra of the locals was "if you don't 
like the weather, wait five minutes."  As a member of a Boy Scout troop 
in the northern part of the Sooner State, we were told, repeatedly, to 
expect anything from broiling to deep freeze on our campouts.


One such outing was on fallow farmland.  Because the campsite was in the 
middle of nowhere, we were a small group, and came in three cars.  We 
pitched four tents.  During the night, a gullywasher came through and 
dropped several inches of water in one hour.  Three of the tents were 
inundated with water, and the campers ended up sleeping in the cars.  My 
tent was dry inside, because my tent-mate and I had seen the storm 
clouds, dug a trench around the tent, and loosened the ropes.  It helped 
that we had pitched the tent on a slight mound.


Some disasters are unavoidable, like tornados.  Others allow for 
mitigation by the thoughtful.


On 2/22/21 9:18 AM, Rich Kulawiec wrote:

On Tue, Feb 16, 2021 at 12:23:22PM +, Bret Clark wrote:

Texas doesn't generally experience this type of extreme cold.


That was then; this is now.

As scientist Jeff Masters put it most of a decade ago:

The atmosphere I grew up with no longer exists.  My new motto
with regards to the weather is, "expect the unprecedented."

In the years since he's said that we've seen a number of unprecedented
events: Sandy, Harvey, California wildfires, last year's midwest derecho,
and so on.  This event in Texas is just another one; there will be more;
they'll get worse.

We should probably get ready for that.

---rsk

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Saku Ytti]

On Mon, 22 Feb 2021 at 20:28, Rich Kulawiec  wrote:

> right: artificial sweeteners are safe, WMDs were in Iraq, and Anna Nicole

Hope you meant to write 'unsafe', as the conspiracy theory is that
aspartame is unsafe, the science says it is safe.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aspartame_controversy


-- 
  ++ytti

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Rich Kulawiec]

On Mon, Feb 22, 2021 at 05:48:06PM +, Mel Beckman wrote:
> Sorry Global Warmists,
 
Right.  Sure.  Also, the earth is 6,000 years old (and flat), the moon
landings were faked, creationism is real, dinosaurs and humans co-existed,
vaccines cause autism, Elvis is alive, and...how does that line go?  Oh,
right: artificial sweeteners are safe, WMDs were in Iraq, and Anna Nicole
married for love. [shout-out to Levon Helm]

This trash doesn't deserve rebuttal: it deserves ridicule.

---rsk

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Rod Beck]

Mel, just please remove yourself from this conversation if you don't accept the 
basic premise. Go and find those missing votes in Georgia.

Best,

-R.


From: NANOG  on behalf 
of Brandon Svec via NANOG 
Sent: Monday, February 22, 2021 7:16 PM
To: nanog@nanog.org 
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts



> On Feb 22, 2021, at 9:56 AM, Mel Beckman  wrote:
>
> Sorry Global Warmists,


Stopped taking you seriously or reading further right there.  Well, that and 
linking to Forbes for something related to science.

Best.

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Brandon Svec via NANOG]

> On Feb 22, 2021, at 9:56 AM, Mel Beckman  wrote:
> 
> Sorry Global Warmists,


Stopped taking you seriously or reading further right there.  Well, that and 
linking to Forbes for something related to science. 

Best. 

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Saku Ytti]

On Mon, 22 Feb 2021 at 19:57, Mel Beckman  wrote:

> Sorry Global Warmists, But Extreme Weather Events Are Becoming Less Extreme
> Just about every type of extreme weather event is becoming less frequent and 
> less severe in recent years as our planet continues its modest warming in the 
> wake of the Little Ice Age. While global warming activists attempt to spin a 
> narrative of ever-worsening weather, the objective facts tell a completely 
> different story.
>
> https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2013/05/08/sorry-global-warmists-but-extreme-weather-events-are-becoming-less-extreme/?sh=46c3b30e55a4

https://grist.org/series/skeptics/
https://skepticalscience.com/argument.php
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/start-here/

--
  ++ytti, not a climate scientist so chooses to believe them

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Mel Beckman]

Sorry Global Warmists, But Extreme Weather Events Are Becoming Less Extreme
Just about every type of extreme weather event is becoming less frequent and 
less severe in recent years as our planet continues its modest warming in the 
wake of the Little Ice Age. While global warming activists attempt to spin a 
narrative of ever-worsening weather, the objective facts tell a completely 
different story.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2013/05/08/sorry-global-warmists-but-extreme-weather-events-are-becoming-less-extreme/?sh=46c3b30e55a4

The above article is from 2013 article provides hard data that extreme weather 
events are becoming less, not more, frequent and severe. That trend continues 
today. So the premise that weather events are getting “increasingly 
unprecedented" is demonstrably false. What is true is that cost of extreme 
weather events has gone up, but that’s a function of population density, not of 
weather itself, nor of climate change.

The data that climate alarmists most often cite to bolster the false narrative 
of increasing severe weather is the “Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate 
Disaster Events” chart:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events

The worst event ever, at $170B, was the merely Cat3 hurricane Katrina. It 
caused $170B in damage because it hit the highly dense New Orleans urban 
center.  Yet the massively more severe Cat5 hurricane Michael, which hit a much 
less population-dense Mexico Beach, FL, caused only $25B in damage. Weather 
intensity doesn’t correlate with damage costs. Population does.

Knowing accurately the true trend of severe weather is important to NANOG 
operational planning, because it bears directly on the cost/benefit analysis of 
infrastructure hardening. Physical integrity is always a function of cost vs 
benefit, and we as network operators can’t afford to spend “unprecedented" sums 
for diminishing benefits. We must use facts, not alarmism, to decide on what we 
should "probably get ready for”.

 -mel



On Feb 22, 2021, at 9:18 AM, Rich Kulawiec  wrote:

On Tue, Feb 16, 2021 at 12:23:22PM +, Bret Clark wrote:
Texas doesn't generally experience this type of extreme cold.

That was then; this is now.

As scientist Jeff Masters put it most of a decade ago:

The atmosphere I grew up with no longer exists.  My new motto
with regards to the weather is, "expect the unprecedented."

In the years since he's said that we've seen a number of unprecedented
events: Sandy, Harvey, California wildfires, last year's midwest derecho,
and so on.  This event in Texas is just another one; there will be more;
they'll get worse.

We should probably get ready for that.

---rsk

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Rod Beck]

Exactly. The weather is not a stationary time series. The moments of the 
probability distribution are not time invariant.


From: NANOG  on behalf 
of Rich Kulawiec 
Sent: Monday, February 22, 2021 6:18 PM
To: nanog@nanog.org 
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

On Tue, Feb 16, 2021 at 12:23:22PM +, Bret Clark wrote:
> Texas doesn't generally experience this type of extreme cold.

That was then; this is now.

As scientist Jeff Masters put it most of a decade ago:

The atmosphere I grew up with no longer exists.  My new motto
with regards to the weather is, "expect the unprecedented."

In the years since he's said that we've seen a number of unprecedented
events: Sandy, Harvey, California wildfires, last year's midwest derecho,
and so on.  This event in Texas is just another one; there will be more;
they'll get worse.

We should probably get ready for that.

---rsk

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Rich Kulawiec]

On Wed, Feb 17, 2021 at 10:34:35AM -0800, Sabri Berisha wrote:
> With apologies to those on the list who still use mutt/pine etc. 

1. "still"?  Competent professionals with security awareness use text-only
email clients as a matter of basic self-defense.  I trust it's obvious
why those of us who are responsible for systems/networks/data need to
protect ourselves in order to protect the resources we run.

2. It's pretty easy to handle attachments gracefully while using mutt.
By default it checks ~/.mailcap, and in that file one can specify external
programs to handle various attachment types, e.g.:

text/html; w3m -dump -T text/html %s | less
application/pdf; /usr/bin/evince %s

Of course this needs to be done carefully, since it subjects the user
to attacks against those applications carried via attachments, but
that's where judicious choices on the part of the user come in --
choices as in "which attachment types, which applications, and
whether or not to exercise this capability on a per-message basis".

---rsk

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Rich Kulawiec]

On Tue, Feb 16, 2021 at 12:23:22PM +, Bret Clark wrote:
> Texas doesn't generally experience this type of extreme cold.

That was then; this is now.

As scientist Jeff Masters put it most of a decade ago:

The atmosphere I grew up with no longer exists.  My new motto
with regards to the weather is, "expect the unprecedented."

In the years since he's said that we've seen a number of unprecedented
events: Sandy, Harvey, California wildfires, last year's midwest derecho,
and so on.  This event in Texas is just another one; there will be more;
they'll get worse.

We should probably get ready for that.

---rsk

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Haudy Kazemi via NANOG]

Griddy's model makes sense for customers who have the ability to
automatically shed load and switch remaining critical load to backup
generation when wholesale prices spike above the cost of using the backup
generation. Might also make sense if the minimum load after load shedding
is small enough that $9/kWh is not going to break the budget. A 10 watt,
1000 lumen LED can run for 100 hours on 1 kWh.

Customers without such load shedding and/or backup are taking the risk of
possibly seeing $9/kWh (current TX cap?), assuming power is available at
all. Do their customers understand the risk?

It also appears Griddy is planning to roll out a 'price protection option'
for customers. I guess that option probably will look similar to variable
rate plans offered by other retail providers.



On Fri, Feb 19, 2021, 12:19 Tim Burke  wrote:

> CYA measure more than anything else, so Griddy can say they warned their
> customers that prices would be high when faced with chargebacks or bad
> press.
>
> Based on past experience, they are just passing through actual electric
> costs and profiting off of a ~$10 membership fee. After the absurd energy
> rates they had to pass through in 2019 (somewhere around $80/kWh), I'm
> amazed anyone still uses them.
>
> V/r
> Tim
>
> -Original Message-
> From: NANOG  On Behalf Of Mark Tinka
> Sent: Thursday, February 18, 2021 10:26 PM
> To: nanog@nanog.org
> Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts
>
>
>
> On 2/17/21 16:09, Ben Cannon wrote:
>
> > https://www.dallasnews.com/business/energy/2021/02/16/electricity-reta
> > iler-griddys-unusual-plea-to-texas-customers-leave-now-before-you-get-
> > a-big-bill/
> > <https://www.dallasnews.com/business/energy/2021/02/16/electricity-ret
> > ailer-griddys-unusual-plea-to-texas-customers-leave-now-before-you-get
> > -a-big-bill/>
> >
> >
> > The power market in Texas has utterly failed.
>
> Griddy aren't greedy. Pity about the grid.
>
> Mark.
>

RE: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Tim Burke]

CYA measure more than anything else, so Griddy can say they warned their 
customers that prices would be high when faced with chargebacks or bad press. 

Based on past experience, they are just passing through actual electric costs 
and profiting off of a ~$10 membership fee. After the absurd energy rates they 
had to pass through in 2019 (somewhere around $80/kWh), I'm amazed anyone still 
uses them. 

V/r
Tim

-Original Message-
From: NANOG  On Behalf Of Mark Tinka
Sent: Thursday, February 18, 2021 10:26 PM
To: nanog@nanog.org
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts



On 2/17/21 16:09, Ben Cannon wrote:

> https://www.dallasnews.com/business/energy/2021/02/16/electricity-reta
> iler-griddys-unusual-plea-to-texas-customers-leave-now-before-you-get-
> a-big-bill/ 
> <https://www.dallasnews.com/business/energy/2021/02/16/electricity-ret
> ailer-griddys-unusual-plea-to-texas-customers-leave-now-before-you-get
> -a-big-bill/>
>
>
> The power market in Texas has utterly failed.

Griddy aren't greedy. Pity about the grid.

Mark.

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Mal via NANOG]

On 18/02/2021 7:54 am, Milt Aitken wrote:
> The bill arrived today.  $391.26 got me 3459kwh.  That is 11.3cents/kwh net 
> for business power from Cobb EMC, who charges a good bit more than GPC (they 
> buy a lot of their power from GPC).  N the past, I’ve had GPC bills from 
> customers’ homes that net to about 7.5 cents/kwh.

Try paying for electricity in South Australia.. its around $0.34/kwh
(plus %10 tax).  We have a regime where essentially those without solar
are paying for those with.

South Australia too had a complete power grid failure in 2016. 
Regardless of the ample coal supply the state has, we had Power stations
knocked down for green sources, like wind and solar.   During the storm,
we had a cascading transmission network failure with 23 pylons taken out
which effected our supply from other Australian states..  And the lights
went dark, statewide.

Its 38°C here today (100°F).  Thaw out Texas.

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Mark Tinka]

On 2/17/21 16:09, Ben Cannon wrote:

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/energy/2021/02/16/electricity-retailer-griddys-unusual-plea-to-texas-customers-leave-now-before-you-get-a-big-bill/ 
 



The power market in Texas has utterly failed.


Griddy aren't greedy. Pity about the grid.

Mark.

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Yang Yu]

On Wed, Feb 17, 2021 at 10:46 AM John Sage  wrote:
> This article is an interest description of Texas electricity pricing for
> one provider and for the market in general:
> https://www.dallasnews.com/business/energy/2021/02/16/electricity-retailer-griddys-unusual-plea-to-texas-customers-leave-now-before-you-get-a-big-bill/

That is far from the market in general.

Most people use a fixed rate plan (can easily find one without rebate
for <10c/kwh after taxes & fees). The customer would have to make an
explicit decision to pick a variable/market rate plan (excluded by
default on http://powertochoose.org/) with higher risk and cheaper
electricity when the wholesale price is low.

http://www.puc.texas.gov/consumer/facts/factsheets/elecfacts/Electricplans.pdf

>Changing Rate (Variable) Plans have rates per kWh that can vary according to a 
>method determined solely by the provider and may be dependent on market 
>changes and other exceptions beyond the provider's control
>Market Rate (Indexed) Plans have rates per kWh that can vary according to 
>pre-defined publicly available indices or information and other exceptions 
>beyond the provider's control


> The highest the price can go to is $9/kWh (which has only ever happened 
> 0.005% of the time.) Most of the time though, 96.9% to be exact, it is below 
> the Texas Average of 6.8¢/kWh
https://www.griddy.com/texas/learn-more#learn-pricing

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Michael Thomas]

On 2/17/21 2:37 PM, Carsten Bormann wrote:


I actually tend to believe that buried HVDC is the future of long-distance 
power transmission.
We might be able to pull off that this transitions from a niche technology to 
the mainstream, like we did with photovoltaics (at the cost of 200 G€).
Let’s see...

I wonder what a world with 5V DC distributed within the house would look 
like. All of those power adapters are both ugly and a PITA. Of course 
that wouldn't have to come in from the grid, but still. I found a 
powerstrip which has a couple of USB slots in it and it's very nice. It 
also allows the AC plugs to be rotated which is nice for the remaining 
adapters.


Mike

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Carsten Bormann]

Hi Sean,



> On 17. Feb 2021, at 21:58, Sean Donelan  wrote:
> 
> 
> 
> On Wed, 17 Feb 2021, Carsten Bormann wrote:
>> That’s not how it works.
> 
> https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/EN/Artikel/Energy/electricity-grids-of-the-future-01.html

Yes. This is fully consistent with what I said.  This is about the future, I 
was talking about reality.

> The Federal Government has put the policies in place for expanding the grid 
> more quickly and gaining public acceptance for it. Following the agreement 
> within the governing coalition in July 2015, the cabinet gave the go-ahead in 
> October 2015 for an increased use of underground DC cables (in German). On 3 
> December 2015, the Bundestag adopted the draft legislation, as amended by the 
> coalition party groups, and the bill passed the Bundesrat on 18 December 
> 2015. The new rules entered into force at the turn of the year 2015/2016.

OK, so 5 years ago the policy for “increased use” of buried cable went into 
force.
Guess how many cable routes have been completed since… [1] 
(You’ll like the map on page 9, AFAICT 6 of the 43 projects sparsely touching 
that page use buried cable at least in part.)

> In future, priority will be given to building the new electricity highways 
> (the HVDC transmission lines) as underground rather than overhead powerlines. 
> This applies in particular to the large transmission lines running from north 
> to south such as 'SuedLink' or 'SuedOstLink'.

This is what this legislation is about.  
Lots of “renewable energy” is generated in Northern Germany.  
The biggest consumer pigs are in Southern Germany.  
So we’d need North-South power transmission, but creating working long lines is 
a matter of decades.

> In general, overhead DC powerlines are to be prohibited in places where 
> people live. They will only be used in exceptional cases, for example in 
> areas where nature conservation interests are identified or where existing 
> powerlines can be used without major impact to the environment. Overhead 
> powerlines may also be used if local authorities specifically request these 
> powerlines in order to meet local needs.

Here you can see that these are mostly political statements: 
The people who want green energy are also often the ones that oppose building 
the infrastructure for it.  
Burying the cables will put them out of sight.

I actually tend to believe that buried HVDC is the future of long-distance 
power transmission. 
We might be able to pull off that this transitions from a niche technology to 
the mainstream, like we did with photovoltaics (at the cost of 200 G€).
Let’s see...

Grüße, Carsten

[1]: https://data.netzausbau.de/Vorhaben/Monitoring/Monitoring_2020-Q3_print.pdf

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Michael Thomas]

On 2/17/21 1:23 PM, b...@uu3.net wrote:

Hold on.. Math doesnt add-up here.
Are you telling me that a gallon propane tank (3.8l) can last
24 hours for about 1000W power generation. Are you sure?
I could belive for 6 hours... maybe 8.. not 24 hours.
So either you are using up 200-300W.. or you have superior power
generator. Can you share what are you using?


Sorry I noticed my error right after I hit send. I meant a 5 gallon 
tank, not 1. Inverter generators are definitely worth the extra cost though.


Mike




-- Original message --

From: Michael Thomas 
To: nanog@nanog.org
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts
Date: Wed, 17 Feb 2021 09:56:06 -0800

We just run extension cords and don't have a transfer switch. It's pretty
surprising what you can run on about a kw. A gallon propane tank lasts close to
24 for us.

Mike

RE: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Milt Aitken]

Well, my house isn’t on GPC, but I wish it was.  Mine is on a coop.  My office 
is on the same coop and I’m billed at a higher rate for business.

The bill arrived today.  $391.26 got me 3459kwh.  That is 11.3cents/kwh net for 
business power from Cobb EMC, who charges a good bit more than GPC (they buy a 
lot of their power from GPC).  N the past, I’ve had GPC bills from customers’ 
homes that net to about 7.5 cents/kwh.

 

 

From: Sabri Berisha [mailto:sa...@cluecentral.net] 
Sent: Wednesday, February 17, 2021 2:43 PM
To: Haudy Kazemi
Cc: Milt Aitken; nanog
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

 

- On Feb 17, 2021, at 11:21 AM, nanog  wrote:







Hi,

Using the sample bill on the GA power website you linked, I see a bottom line 
price of $76.17 for 606 kWh delivered to the customer. That is effectively 
12.57 cents per kWh.

 

Utilities (both investor owned and coops) have a multitude of ways of hiding 
the effective price in a variety of fixed and variable fees not included in the 
nominal 'energy' fee. These include mandatory fixed connection fees and also 
fuel cost recovery fees that are tied to consumption.

Exactly. In a message earlier today which is held and presumably lost due to 
moderation, I shared screenshots of an actual bill of mine here in California.

 

Long story short, using that bill I show that I paid a grand total of $239.14 
for 656.928 KwH of electricity. That makes 36.4 cents per KwH.

 

In addition to that, I also shared another bill, where I paid $2.63 for the 
privilige of providing the net with 31.993 KwH of energy. That's right. My 
solar panels produced more power than I consumed and I still sponsored the 
crooks at PG

 

Utility companies are worse than airlines when it comes to hidden fees and 
surcharges. They know we have no choice.

 

The only reason I want more solar panels is to give a bigger middle finger to 
PG Nothing is a better motivator to go green than to see PG go bankrupt. 
It's a sad state of affairs when the disgust for the utility company's 
deceptive practices somehow outweighs the need to save the planet. Yet here we 
are.

 

Thanks,

 

Sabri

 

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[borg]

Hold on.. Math doesnt add-up here.
Are you telling me that a gallon propane tank (3.8l) can last
24 hours for about 1000W power generation. Are you sure?
I could belive for 6 hours... maybe 8.. not 24 hours.
So either you are using up 200-300W.. or you have superior power
generator. Can you share what are you using?

-- Original message --

From: Michael Thomas 
To: nanog@nanog.org
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts
Date: Wed, 17 Feb 2021 09:56:06 -0800

We just run extension cords and don't have a transfer switch. It's pretty
surprising what you can run on about a kw. A gallon propane tank lasts close to
24 for us.

Mike

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Sean Donelan]

On Wed, 17 Feb 2021, Carsten Bormann wrote:

That’s not how it works.


https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/EN/Artikel/Energy/electricity-grids-of-the-future-01.html
Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy
English translation

[...]
The Federal Government has put the policies in place for expanding the 
grid more quickly and gaining public acceptance for it. Following the 
agreement within the governing coalition in July 2015, the cabinet gave 
the go-ahead in October 2015 for an increased use of underground DC cables 
(in German). On 3 December 2015, the Bundestag adopted the draft 
legislation, as amended by the coalition party groups, and the bill passed 
the Bundesrat on 18 December 2015. The new rules entered into force at the 
turn of the year 2015/2016.


In future, priority will be given to building the new electricity highways 
(the HVDC transmission lines) as underground rather than overhead 
powerlines. This applies in particular to the large transmission lines 
running from north to south such as 'SuedLink' or 'SuedOstLink'. In 
general, overhead DC powerlines are to be prohibited in places where 
people live. They will only be used in exceptional cases, for example in 
areas where nature conservation interests are identified or where existing 
powerlines can be used without major impact to the environment. Overhead 
powerlines may also be used if local authorities specifically request 
these powerlines in order to meet local needs.

[...]

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Carsten Bormann]

On 2021-02-17, at 19:36, Sean Donelan  wrote:
> 
> undergrounding HV transmission lines

That’s not how it works.

In Germany, the majority of rural area HV transmission is above ground, for 
reasons that have been mentioned here.  If we have significant power outages 
(once-in-a-decade events), they are usually unforeseen damage to those (e.g., 
extreme icing rain in the 2005 event [1]). 

But the distribution network is underground, no poles in residential areas 
(same for phone/internet).

Yes, our pricing structure is different from the US, but that ist mostly 
unrelated.  We do like reliable power (and phone systems) over here, by the way.
(As Lenin said, communism is electrification plus soviet rule.  
We got rid of soviet rule :-)  Regulation that gets results is good.)

The nominal price of power you can’t get is pretty irrelevant, anyway :-)

Grüße, Carsten

[1]: 
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%BCnsterl%C3%A4nder_Schneechaos#Stromausfall

RE: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[John van Oppen]

Unless you have storage, you are using the utility for services.   It is no 
realistic to assume that they will do net metering forever, it simply does not 
allow them to fund the distribution network.

I honestly think the current rates for solar in-feed at places like Hawaiian 
electric are more fair to all parties, you get power at retail rates and send 
it back at about half the retail rate.   This encourages battery storage 
adoption and actually funds the distribution network.


From: NANOG  On Behalf Of Sabri 
Berisha
Sent: Wednesday, February 17, 2021 11:43 AM
To: Haudy Kazemi 
Cc: nanog 
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

- On Feb 17, 2021, at 11:21 AM, nanog 
mailto:nanog@nanog.org>> wrote:



Hi,
Using the sample bill on the GA power website you linked, I see a bottom line 
price of $76.17 for 606 kWh delivered to the customer. That is effectively 
12.57 cents per kWh.

Utilities (both investor owned and coops) have a multitude of ways of hiding 
the effective price in a variety of fixed and variable fees not included in the 
nominal 'energy' fee. These include mandatory fixed connection fees and also 
fuel cost recovery fees that are tied to consumption.
Exactly. In a message earlier today which is held and presumably lost due to 
moderation, I shared screenshots of an actual bill of mine here in California.

Long story short, using that bill I show that I paid a grand total of $239.14 
for 656.928 KwH of electricity. That makes 36.4 cents per KwH.

In addition to that, I also shared another bill, where I paid $2.63 for the 
privilige of providing the net with 31.993 KwH of energy. That's right. My 
solar panels produced more power than I consumed and I still sponsored the 
crooks at PG

Utility companies are worse than airlines when it comes to hidden fees and 
surcharges. They know we have no choice.

The only reason I want more solar panels is to give a bigger middle finger to 
PG Nothing is a better motivator to go green than to see PG go bankrupt. 
It's a sad state of affairs when the disgust for the utility company's 
deceptive practices somehow outweighs the need to save the planet. Yet here we 
are.

Thanks,

Sabri

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Sabri Berisha]

- On Feb 17, 2021, at 11:21 AM, nanog  wrote: 

Hi, 

> Using the sample bill on the GA power website you linked, I see a bottom line
> price of $76.17 for 606 kWh delivered to the customer. That is effectively
> 12.57 cents per kWh.

> Utilities (both investor owned and coops) have a multitude of ways of hiding 
> the
> effective price in a variety of fixed and variable fees not included in the
> nominal 'energy' fee. These include mandatory fixed connection fees and also
> fuel cost recovery fees that are tied to consumption.

Exactly. In a message earlier today which is held and presumably lost due to 
moderation, I shared screenshots of an actual bill of mine here in California. 

Long story short, using that bill I show that I paid a grand total of $239.14 
for 656.928 KwH of electricity. That makes 36.4 cents per KwH. 

In addition to that, I also shared another bill, where I paid $2.63 for the 
privilige of providing the net with 31.993 KwH of energy. That's right. My 
solar panels produced more power than I consumed and I still sponsored the 
crooks at PG 

Utility companies are worse than airlines when it comes to hidden fees and 
surcharges. They know we have no choice. 

The only reason I want more solar panels is to give a bigger middle finger to 
PG Nothing is a better motivator to go green than to see PG go bankrupt. 
It's a sad state of affairs when the disgust for the utility company's 
deceptive practices somehow outweighs the need to save the planet. Yet here we 
are. 
Thanks, 

Sabri 

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Andy Ringsmuth]

> On Feb 17, 2021, at 1:11 PM, Bill Woodcock  wrote:
> 
> 
> 
>> On Feb 17, 2021, at 7:41 PM, Sean Donelan  wrote:
>> Statistics suck, until you attempt to produce your own.
> 
> I don’t even know what word you replace “suck” with, when you’re doing it 
> yourself.  What’s suck cubed?
> 
>-Bill
> 


Well, on the other hand, 47 percent of all statistics are made up on the spot.



-Andy

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Haudy Kazemi via NANOG]

Using the sample bill on the GA power website you linked, I see a bottom
line price of $76.17 for 606 kWh delivered to the customer. That is
effectively 12.57 cents per kWh.

Utilities (both investor owned and coops) have a multitude of ways of
hiding the effective price in a variety of fixed and variable fees not
included in the nominal 'energy' fee. These include mandatory fixed
connection fees and also fuel cost recovery fees that are tied to
consumption.



On Wed, Feb 17, 2021, 12:01 Milt Aitken  wrote:

> The numbers below are not correct.
>
> Here in GA, we pay much lower rates than those listed, somewhere around 7
> cents/kwh after taxes.
>
>
> https://www.georgiapower.com/residential/billing-and-rate-plans/pricing-and-rate-plans/residential-service.html
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* NANOG [mailto:nanog-bounces+milt=net2atlanta@nanog.org] *On
> Behalf Of *Rod Beck
> *Sent:* Wednesday, February 17, 2021 12:43 PM
> *To:* Sean Donelan
> *Cc:* nanog@nanog.org
> *Subject:* Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts
>
>
>
> Using residential pricing for a data center is a bit odd, isn't? Remember,
> European businesses can reclaim VAT and a European data center would access
> much lower tariffs than a European household. And residential pricing
> includes VAT. Germany is an outlier because about 50% of the 30 cents is
> taxes and surcharges.
>
>
> --
>
> *From:* Sean Donelan 
> *Sent:* Wednesday, February 17, 2021 4:15 PM
> *To:* Rod Beck 
> *Cc:* nanog@nanog.org 
> *Subject:* Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts
>
>
>
>
> The price of electricity is a major component of the decision where data
> centers operators choose to build large data centers.
>
>
> Total electric price to end consumer (residential).  Although industrial
> electric prices are usually lower, its easier to compare residential
> prices across countries.
>
> Europe (Residential):
> Lowest Bulgaria: EU 9.97 cents/kWh (USD 12.0 cents/kWh)
> Highest Germany: EU 30.88 cents/kWh (USD 37.33 cents/kWh)
>
> Average: EU 20.5 cents/kWh (USD 25.2 cents/kWh)
>
> USA (Residential):
> Lowest Idaho: USD 9.67 cents/kWh (EU 8.3 cents/kWh)
> Highest Hawaii: USD 28.84 cents/kWh (EU 24.07 cents/kWh)
>
> Average: USD 13.25 cents/kWh (EU 10.79 cents/kWh)
>
>
> Texas is slightly below the US average at
> Texas: USD 12.2 cents/kWh (EU 9.96 cents/kWh)
>

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Bill Woodcock]

> On Feb 17, 2021, at 7:41 PM, Sean Donelan  wrote:
> Statistics suck, until you attempt to produce your own.

I don’t even know what word you replace “suck” with, when you’re doing it 
yourself.  What’s suck cubed?

-Bill



signature.asc
Description: Message signed with OpenPGP

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Sean Donelan]

On Wed, 17 Feb 2021, Sabri Berisha wrote:
This (admittedly anecdotal) evidence clearly proves that the Dept of 
Energy's table is cherry-picked bollocks. My rate is 163% of their 
"average".


As always, you are free to collect data and produce your own table 
covering electric prices for the entire nation, state and county.


Same critiques apply to the cost of living index, unemployment index, etc, 
etc, etc.  Statistics suck, until you attempt to produce your own.

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Mark Tinka]

On 2/17/21 20:04, Lady Benjamin PD Cannon wrote:

Other than financials limiting capacity, modern residential solar 
systems do not care a wink about what sort of load their DC is 
driving.  The inverters also are rated for continuous duty.


Solar can drive any load. But to support heavy loads + regular ones, 
you'd need a big array and a decent-sized inverter. Double or triple the 
array if you need to support the same demand during low irradiation days 
(rain, winter, e.t.c.).





If you produce more power per day than you consume, you will be fine 
forever, simply needing enough capacity to ride out volatility in 
production.


Most grid-tied solar installations will produce more power than they 
need, at some point. But that does not help if there is no storage 
and/or the grid fails.





Let me be clear: Solar systems are suitable for every type of electric 
load, but, if anything, */especially/* resistive loads, as those are 
driven most efficiently by the inverters, as opposed to inductive or 
other reactive loads.


I didn't say solar wasn't suitable for resistive loads. I said batteries 
aren't... not from a lack of ability, but a lack of capacity given the 
amount of energy that is required to drive resisitive loads over a given 
period of time (think, heating bathing water in a 200-litre water tank, 
with a 4kW element, in the dead of winter).





If everyone had a large enough solar system at home, let’s say 
covering their entire roof - we wouldn’t need generation at all except 
for certain industrial purposes. (which can be nuclear)   The grid 
could be shrunk dramatically as it would be a rarely used inter-tie.


Let's be clear, solar does not automatically infer batteries also.

When I say solar, I mean PV only. When I say solar + batteries, I mean 
PV + storage.


Much of user demand occurs in the evening, when the sunlight is at its 
lowest. No amount of solar on the roof will offer you power then, and if 
the grid is massively shrunk, where will your power come from? Fine, 
you've got a battery - how big does it have to be to support you 
throughout the night until the sun comes out the following morning, 
assuming it doesn't storm?


Mark.

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Sean Donelan]

As I mentioned I used residential pricing because its easier to find. 
Getting industrial pricing is more difficult because its often viewed as 
proprietary secret information with particular customers. Its more 
difficult to get industrial pricing across all countries (and states in 
the USA). Then people would say that industrial pricing isn't comparable 
because it includes discounts, such as load shedding during peak usage.


So I used residential pricing.  But I would love if you could produce a 
report on industrial electric pricing around the world, for free of 
course.


Germany is recouping the cost of undergrounding HV transmission lines 
(and other political choices) through those surcharges, i.e. there ain't 
no such thing as a free lunch.


The problems with the Texas eletric grid is really a market arbitrage 
failure.  The decision makers like to blame it on "unforseeable events."

Just ask the Harvard professor which created it.

Storm damage doesn't stop at state borders.


On Wed, 17 Feb 2021, Rod Beck wrote:

Using residential pricing for a data center is a bit odd, isn't? Remember,
European businesses can reclaim VAT and a European data center would access
much lower tariffs than a European household. And residential pricing
includes VAT. Germany is an outlier because about 50% of the 30 cents is
taxes and surcharges.

RE: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Milt Aitken]

The numbers below are not correct.

Here in GA, we pay much lower rates than those listed, somewhere around 7
cents/kwh after taxes.

https://www.georgiapower.com/residential/billing-and-rate-plans/pricing-and-
rate-plans/residential-service.html

 

 

 

From: NANOG [mailto:nanog-bounces+milt=net2atlanta@nanog.org] On Behalf
Of Rod Beck
Sent: Wednesday, February 17, 2021 12:43 PM
To: Sean Donelan
Cc: nanog@nanog.org
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

 

Using residential pricing for a data center is a bit odd, isn't? Remember,
European businesses can reclaim VAT and a European data center would access
much lower tariffs than a European household. And residential pricing
includes VAT. Germany is an outlier because about 50% of the 30 cents is
taxes and surcharges. 

 

  _  

From: Sean Donelan 
Sent: Wednesday, February 17, 2021 4:15 PM
To: Rod Beck 
Cc: nanog@nanog.org 
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts 

 


The price of electricity is a major component of the decision where data 
centers operators choose to build large data centers.


Total electric price to end consumer (residential).  Although industrial 
electric prices are usually lower, its easier to compare residential 
prices across countries.

Europe (Residential):
Lowest Bulgaria: EU 9.97 cents/kWh (USD 12.0 cents/kWh)
Highest Germany: EU 30.88 cents/kWh (USD 37.33 cents/kWh)

Average: EU 20.5 cents/kWh (USD 25.2 cents/kWh)

USA (Residential):
Lowest Idaho: USD 9.67 cents/kWh (EU 8.3 cents/kWh)
Highest Hawaii: USD 28.84 cents/kWh (EU 24.07 cents/kWh)

Average: USD 13.25 cents/kWh (EU 10.79 cents/kWh)


Texas is slightly below the US average at
Texas: USD 12.2 cents/kWh (EU 9.96 cents/kWh)

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Michael Thomas]

On 2/17/21 9:40 AM, Aaron C. de Bruyn via NANOG wrote:
It might not be an easy fix in the moment, but in the long run, buy a 
generator and install a propane tank.
When power prices spike to insane levels like this, just flip your 
transfer switch over and run off propane.

When utility power becomes cheaper, switch back to the grid.

Maybe some sort of Raspberry Pi to monitor the current prices and do 
the transfer automatically.  (language warning: 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gz7IPTf1uts 
)


Protip: If you're blacked out, it doesn't matter what the price of 
power is.


We just run extension cords and don't have a transfer switch. It's 
pretty surprising what you can run on about a kw. A gallon propane tank 
lasts close to 24 for us.


Mike

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Rod Beck]

Using residential pricing for a data center is a bit odd, isn't? Remember, 
European businesses can reclaim VAT and a European data center would access 
much lower tariffs than a European household. And residential pricing includes 
VAT. Germany is an outlier because about 50% of the 30 cents is taxes and 
surcharges.


From: Sean Donelan 
Sent: Wednesday, February 17, 2021 4:15 PM
To: Rod Beck 
Cc: nanog@nanog.org 
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts


The price of electricity is a major component of the decision where data
centers operators choose to build large data centers.


Total electric price to end consumer (residential).  Although industrial
electric prices are usually lower, its easier to compare residential
prices across countries.

Europe (Residential):
Lowest Bulgaria: EU 9.97 cents/kWh (USD 12.0 cents/kWh)
Highest Germany: EU 30.88 cents/kWh (USD 37.33 cents/kWh)

Average: EU 20.5 cents/kWh (USD 25.2 cents/kWh)

USA (Residential):
Lowest Idaho: USD 9.67 cents/kWh (EU 8.3 cents/kWh)
Highest Hawaii: USD 28.84 cents/kWh (EU 24.07 cents/kWh)

Average: USD 13.25 cents/kWh (EU 10.79 cents/kWh)


Texas is slightly below the US average at
Texas: USD 12.2 cents/kWh (EU 9.96 cents/kWh)

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Aaron C. de Bruyn via NANOG]

It might not be an easy fix in the moment, but in the long run, buy a
generator and install a propane tank.
When power prices spike to insane levels like this, just flip your transfer
switch over and run off propane.
When utility power becomes cheaper, switch back to the grid.

Maybe some sort of Raspberry Pi to monitor the current prices and do the
transfer automatically.  (language warning:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gz7IPTf1uts)

Protip: If you're blacked out, it doesn't matter what the price of power is.

-A

On Wed, Feb 17, 2021 at 8:47 AM John Sage  wrote:

> On 2/17/21 8:07 AM, Sean Donelan wrote:
> >
> >
> > On Wed, 17 Feb 2021, Andy Ringsmuth wrote:
> >> Not sure where you’re finding those numbers but I believe they are not
> >> accurate.
> >
> > U.S. Energy Information Administration (part of the Department of Energy)
> >
> >
> https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a
>
> This article is an interest description of Texas electricity pricing for
> one provider and for the market in general:
>
> "Some retail power companies in Texas are making an unusual plea to
> their customers amid a deep freeze that has sent electricity prices
> skyrocketing: Please, leave us.
>
> Power supplier, Griddy, told all 29,000 of its customers that they
> should switch to another provider as spot electricity prices soared to
> as high as $9,000 a megawatt-hour. Griddy’s customers are fully exposed
> to the real-time swings in wholesale power markets, so those who don’t
> leave soon will face extraordinarily high electricity bills."
>
> The catch:
>
> "Hector Torres, an energy trader in Texas, who is a Griddy customer
> himself, said he tried to switch services over the long weekend but
> couldn’t find a company willing to take him until Wednesday, when the
> weather is forecast to turn warmer."
>
>
> https://www.dallasnews.com/business/energy/2021/02/16/electricity-retailer-griddys-unusual-plea-to-texas-customers-leave-now-before-you-get-a-big-bill/
>
>
>
> - John
> --
>
>

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[John Sage]

On 2/17/21 8:07 AM, Sean Donelan wrote:



On Wed, 17 Feb 2021, Andy Ringsmuth wrote:
Not sure where you’re finding those numbers but I believe they are not 
accurate.


U.S. Energy Information Administration (part of the Department of Energy)

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a


This article is an interest description of Texas electricity pricing for 
one provider and for the market in general:


"Some retail power companies in Texas are making an unusual plea to 
their customers amid a deep freeze that has sent electricity prices 
skyrocketing: Please, leave us.


Power supplier, Griddy, told all 29,000 of its customers that they 
should switch to another provider as spot electricity prices soared to 
as high as $9,000 a megawatt-hour. Griddy’s customers are fully exposed 
to the real-time swings in wholesale power markets, so those who don’t 
leave soon will face extraordinarily high electricity bills."


The catch:

"Hector Torres, an energy trader in Texas, who is a Griddy customer 
himself, said he tried to switch services over the long weekend but 
couldn’t find a company willing to take him until Wednesday, when the 
weather is forecast to turn warmer."


https://www.dallasnews.com/business/energy/2021/02/16/electricity-retailer-griddys-unusual-plea-to-texas-customers-leave-now-before-you-get-a-big-bill/ 




- John
--

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Mark Tinka]

On 2/16/21 19:27, Brandon Svec wrote:

Mismanagement and poor planning are primarily to blame.  One can't 
just blame the weather.  We know weather will be bad and have extreme 
variations.


You mean some like UK airports :-)?

Mark.

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Mark Tinka]

On 2/16/21 18:50, John Von Essen wrote:

I just assumed most people in Texas have heat pumps- AC in the summer 
and minimal heating in the winter when needed. When the entire state 
gets a deep freeze, everybody is running those heat pumps non-stop, 
and the generation capacity simply wasn’t there. i.e. coal or natural 
gas plants have some turbines offline, etc.,. in the winter because 
historically power use is much much less. The odd thing is its been 
days now, those plants should be able to ramp back up to capacity - 
but clearly they haven’t. Blaming this on wind turbines is BS. In 
fact, if it weren’t for so many people in Texas with grid-tie solar 
systems, the situation would be even worse.


I'm not sure that grid-tied solar systems actually provide any massive 
reprieve on utility generation, because the hours that installations can 
produce energy is when demand is at its lowest (fair point, working from 
home this past year has probably skewed that, but...).


Demand tends to ramp up in the evenings, which is when solar cannot work 
anymore. And considering that there are more grid-tied solar solutions 
out there with no storage, the grid has to handle that ramp up for the 
evening loads, likely more quickly than they would have if there was no 
distributed solar generation.


I'm also not sure about the state restrictions on the % of customers 
that can connect their solar systems to the grid, but I'd imagine it's 
somewhere between 10% - 20%, last time I did a spot-check on various 
U.S. states.


Mark.

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Sean Donelan]

On Wed, 17 Feb 2021, Andy Ringsmuth wrote:

Not sure where you’re finding those numbers but I believe they are not accurate.


U.S. Energy Information Administration (part of the Department of Energy)

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Mark Tinka]

On 2/16/21 17:45, JASON BOTHE via NANOG wrote:


The professor has it right. Before the state privatized the grid and made 
ERCOT, we never had these problems. Every few years, these private companies 
complain they need a rate hike because they need a grant to ‘beef up’ the 
infrastructure and it’s granted although we seem to keep having this issue. I’m 
certain history will continue to repeat itself.


Over here in South Africa, our power company does the exact same thing. 
The difference is that it is not private :-).


Mark.

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Mark Tinka]

On 2/16/21 16:28, Michael Thomas wrote:



We use propane. It's less dense energy-wise than gasoline, but it's 
really easy to switch over.


Same here, for our winter. Cheaper than power, and is fast-acting.

Mark.

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Mark Tinka]

On 2/16/21 14:23, Bret Clark wrote:

Texas doesn't generally experience this type of extreme cold. The 
power grids are being overload due to people using their electric heat 
or electric portable heaters.


Any shared resource will have its limits exposed when patterns spiral, 
unusually.


Mark.

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Mark Tinka]

On 2/16/21 14:22, John Sage wrote:



You don't understand Texas politics relative to the United States at 
large.


I certainly do not :-).




Which is fine, but this is a state that had deliberately prevented 
interconnects (see: ERCOT, above) into any extended national grid, 
principally to evade the resulting exposure to Federal regulation.


Texas [politicians] are constantly threatening to secede.


Yes, finally read the history.

Gives "community" a different perspective :-).

Mark.

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Mark Tinka]

On 2/16/21 14:14, Rod Beck wrote:

I agree. Germany spent well over 200 billion Euros on wind and solar 
subsidies and over 85% of the country's energy consumption is still 
non-renewable. Wind power is randomly generated. I really don't to 
depend it for either personal or business needs.


The land mass required for grid-scale wind (and solar, albeit less) 
generation is quite significant to make a dent against traditional 
energy sources.


Mark.

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Mark Tinka]

On 2/16/21 14:09, Rod Beck wrote:

The problems with renewables is that you can't switch on or off and 
there is no good storage solution.


While solar + batteries would be good backup options, they would do 
little to support electric-driven heating, as solar irradiation during 
winter is too low already, and zapping your batteries on resistive loads 
will surely kill them young.


Li-Ion storage is by no means perfect, but it's the most perfect we 
have, today.


Mark.

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Michael Thomas]

On 2/17/21 7:15 AM, Sean Donelan wrote:


The price of electricity is a major component of the decision where 
data centers operators choose to build large data centers.



Total electric price to end consumer (residential).  Although 
industrial electric prices are usually lower, its easier to compare 
residential prices across countries.


Europe (Residential):
Lowest Bulgaria: EU 9.97 cents/kWh (USD 12.0 cents/kWh)
Highest Germany: EU 30.88 cents/kWh (USD 37.33 cents/kWh)

Average: EU 20.5 cents/kWh (USD 25.2 cents/kWh)

USA (Residential):
Lowest Idaho: USD 9.67 cents/kWh (EU 8.3 cents/kWh)
Highest Hawaii: USD 28.84 cents/kWh (EU 24.07 cents/kWh)

Average: USD 13.25 cents/kWh (EU 10.79 cents/kWh)


Texas is slightly below the US average at
Texas: USD 12.2 cents/kWh (EU 9.96 cents/kWh)



here in California it's like $.20 - $.30 with pg i recently looked up 
Oregon and it was like $.03 which is why you probably see data centers 
being built by The Dalles and Prineville.


Mike

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Andy Ringsmuth]

> On Feb 17, 2021, at 9:15 AM, Sean Donelan  wrote:
> 
> USA (Residential):
> Lowest Idaho: USD 9.67 cents/kWh (EU 8.3 cents/kWh)
> Highest Hawaii: USD 28.84 cents/kWh (EU 24.07 cents/kWh)

Not sure where you’re finding those numbers but I believe they are not accurate.

https://neo.ne.gov/programs/stats/inf/204.htm

Heck, here in Lincoln, Nebraska, our rates are 8.01c per kWh in the summer and 
5.48c in the winter.

Maybe that’s one reason why an as-yet-unnamed entity is putting a massive 
datacenter here in the next couple of years. Dangit I wish I knew who it was as 
I want to apply there once it gets going.

https://journalstar.com/business/local/company-behind-proposed-lincoln-data-center-buys-land-for-nearly-19-million/article_c6dffec9-cc7a-5e5e-9a51-68d8359ebfb8.html




Andy Ringsmuth
5609 Harding Drive
Lincoln, NE 68521-5831
(402) 304-0083
a...@andyring.com

“Better even die free, than to live slaves.” - Frederick Douglas, 1863

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Sean Donelan]

The price of electricity is a major component of the decision where data 
centers operators choose to build large data centers.



Total electric price to end consumer (residential).  Although industrial 
electric prices are usually lower, its easier to compare residential 
prices across countries.


Europe (Residential):
Lowest Bulgaria: EU 9.97 cents/kWh (USD 12.0 cents/kWh)
Highest Germany: EU 30.88 cents/kWh (USD 37.33 cents/kWh)

Average: EU 20.5 cents/kWh (USD 25.2 cents/kWh)

USA (Residential):
Lowest Idaho: USD 9.67 cents/kWh (EU 8.3 cents/kWh)
Highest Hawaii: USD 28.84 cents/kWh (EU 24.07 cents/kWh)

Average: USD 13.25 cents/kWh (EU 10.79 cents/kWh)


Texas is slightly below the US average at
Texas: USD 12.2 cents/kWh (EU 9.96 cents/kWh)

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Robert Story]

See also ISI's [1] ANT Evaluation of Internet Outages map:

https://outage.ant.isi.edu/?zoom=6=-98.100178=36.512017=dark=1613564040=8=ostreaming=1=0_scale=3

[1] https://ant.isi.edu/outage/

On Mon 2021-02-15 18:04:07-0800 Eric wrote:
> See also, regional maps here. Thanks to CAIDA and the IODA project.
> 
> https://ioda.caida.org/ioda/dashboard
> 
> On Mon, Feb 15, 2021, 5:54 PM Sean Donelan  wrote:
> 
> > Not as bad as Myanmar (14%), Internet connectivity in Texas has been
> > declining today.  According to NetBlocks, which normally monitors
> > government imposed outages, reports network connectivity at 68% in
> > Texas.
> >
> > https://netblocks.org/
> >
> > Texas operates a separate electric grid, with limited
> > interconnections to the rest of North America.  For political
> > reasons
> >
> > For those with long memories, ENRON a Texas based corporation, once
> > upon a time drove rolling blackouts across California in order to
> > make billions. 



-- 
Robert Story 
USC Information Sciences Institute 

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Ben Cannon]

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/energy/2021/02/16/electricity-retailer-griddys-unusual-plea-to-texas-customers-leave-now-before-you-get-a-big-bill/

The power market in Texas has utterly failed.

Ms. Lady Benjamin PD Cannon, ASCE
6x7 Networks & 6x7 Telecom, LLC 
CEO 
b...@6by7.net
"The only fully end-to-end encrypted global telecommunications company in the 
world.”

FCC License KJ6FJJ

Sent from my iPhone via RFC1149.

> On Feb 16, 2021, at 9:15 PM, Peter Beckman  wrote:
> 
> On Tue, 16 Feb 2021, Robert Jacobs wrote:
> 
>> How about letting us Texans have more natural gas power plants or even
>> let the gas be delivered to the plants we have so they can provide more
>> power in an emergency.  Did not help that 20% of our power is now wind
>> which of course in an ice storm like we are having is shut off... Lots of
>> issues and plenty of politics involved here..
> 
> Turns out that you Texans already get a majority of your power from
> Natural Gas.
> 
> So there's already a significant amount of power from natural gas already.
> 
> Things I learned about the most-of-Texas Grid today:
> 
>- Natural Gas plants provide MORE THAN HALF of their total electricity
>generation in 2019 (WOW!)
>- Texas has their own grid to avoid Federal regulation.
>- Texas does have some links to other grids but they don't trigger federal
>regulation for some reason.
>- Texas is the largest energy-producing and energy-consuming state in
>the nation. The industrial sector, including its refineries and
>petrochemical plants, accounts for half of the energy consumed in the
>state.
>- 5 Gigawatts of coal-fired capacity has retired since 2016, and
>supplies 20% of power currently.
>- Wind power provided about 17% of their usage
>- There are two nuclear plants in Texas, only providing 10% of power.
>- One of those nuclear plants are offline due to weather-related issues.
> 
> From the WashPost: "The Texas grid got crushed because its operators didn’t 
> see the need to
> prepare for cold weather"
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/02/16/ercot-texas-electric-grid-failure/
> 
> ---
> Peter Beckman  Internet Guy
> beck...@angryox.com http://www.angryox.com/
> ---

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Rafael Possamai]

Buried high voltage lines require expensive/complex insulation (oil, etc). It's 
really expensive to build and to maintain these at enormous scale like the 
continental USA. Not saying it's not possible, but definitely challenging. 
Repairing damage to these lines is a lot more complicated than splicing fiber 
(freeze plugs, huge holes in the ground, etc). Most HV aerial lines can be 
repaired online with helicopters, whereas the stuff in the ground needs to come 
offline for any sort of repair involving the conductors.

I think because one USA state is the size of an entire EU country (or larger) 
then your HV lines would  have to span multiple states (several countries in 
Europe), it'd be an insane effort to build and maintain these for 50+ years.



- Original message -
From: Rod Beck 
To: Peter Beckman 
Cc: "nanog@nanog.org" 
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts
Date: Wednesday, February 17, 2021 03:17

I have lived in France and now Hungary. I have never seen power lines above 
ground, but I have heard there are some in rural France. 

I disagree with your conclusion - essential infrastructure should be buried if 
possible. The US makes too many excuses for second rate performance. Level3 
buried its infrastructure. This is a case where sacrificing short term profits 
for better long term performance is well worth it. 

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[JÁKÓ András]

> I have lived in France and now Hungary. I have never seen power lines
> above ground, but I have heard there are some in rural France.

You'll find them even in Budapest:

https://www.google.com/maps/@47.4720119,19.1245507,3a,75y,127.74h,82.44t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sWCy2Wa7XFx751XnTwI4ZEA!2e0!7i16384!8i8192
https://www.google.com/maps/@47.4326756,19.0117106,3a,75y,258.31h,97.99t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1shghXkZI-u04Nh_Y-b_MbiA!2e0!7i16384!8i8192
https://www.google.com/maps/@47.4530487,19.1693045,3a,75y,202.63h,100.06t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1soSuaHQbCGTcdj-DoRhbYew!2e0!7i16384!8i8192

András

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Ge DUPIN]

Humm sorry, there are a lot of power lines which are not buried in France and 
in Europe.

High, medium and low voltage power lines, even if there is a willingness to 
slowly bury them over the time

Ge

> Le 17 févr. 2021 à 10:17, Rod Beck  a écrit :
> 
> I have lived in France and now Hungary. I have never seen power lines above 
> ground, but I have heard there are some in rural France. 

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Rod Beck]

And by the way, your 41% figure is misleading because it is an average over a 
continent where Western Europe has twice the standard of living as the East. 
Rich side of the tracks, poor side of the tracks.

In Germany about 80% of power cables are buried. Nearly 87% of low voltage 
cables are buried and the German grid virtually never goes down despite all 
that flaky and unpredictable wind and solar power.

Yes, population density is very high in Germany, but the reason power cables 
are above ground in Eastern Eastern is low GDP.

And those high percentages buried in Western Europe are remarkable when you 
consider Europe is not subject to severe storms like the States.

There are no severe storms comparable to the Atlantic disturbances or even this 
cold spell.

As I said, it is "time to make America great again".  Capital investment, not 
big cars. 




From: Peter Beckman 
Sent: Wednesday, February 17, 2021 6:27 AM
To: Rod Beck 
Cc: Sean Donelan ; Mikael Abrahamsson ; 
nanog@nanog.org 
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

On Tue, 16 Feb 2021, Rod Beck wrote:

> Are the power lines buried like in Europe where I live?
>
> I really think using poles is crazy and global warming guarantees enough
> atmospheric turbulence to make it untenable. Florida is moving to bury
> power lines.

 Only 41% of European lines are underground [1]. Population density is
 higher in the UK, 280 per sq km, versus the US, 34 per sq km [2].

 Netherlands: 423 per sq km
 Belgium: 376 per sq km
 Germany: 233 per sq km
 Switzerland: 208 per sq km
 Italy: 200 per sq km

 When population density is low, the cost to install buried lines does
 not make financial sense, even considering the outages.

 In major cities, lines are buried in the US.

 Granted, there are several US States that individually are similar to
 Europe:

 New Jersey: 467 per sq km
 Massachussetts: 331 per sq km
 New York: 161 per sq km (despite having NYC, largest city in the US)
 California: 95 per sq km (despite having LA, 2nd largest city in the US)
 Texas: 39 per sq km

 Buried lines makes sense where it makes sense. Comparing Europe to the
 US is way too broad, and I don't know where you live.


[1] 
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-05/why-europe-pays-less-than-u-s-to-put-power-lines-underground
[2] 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population_density

> 
> From: NANOG  on 
> behalf of Mikael Abrahamsson via NANOG 
> Sent: Tuesday, February 16, 2021 9:06 AM
> To: Sean Donelan 
> Cc: nanog@nanog.org 
> Subject: RE: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts
>
> On Mon, 15 Feb 2021, Sean Donelan wrote:
>
>> Strange the massive shortages and failures are only in one state.
>>
>> The extreme cold weather extends northwards across many states, which aren't
>> reporting rolling blackouts.
>
> https://www.texastribune.org/2011/02/08/texplainer-why-does-texas-have-its-own-power-grid/
>
> Going at it alone can be beneficial sometimes, sometimes it's not.
>
> --
> Mikael Abrahamssonemail: swm...@swm.pp.se
>

---
Peter Beckman  Internet Guy
beck...@angryox.com http://www.angryox.com/
---

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Rod Beck]

I have lived in France and now Hungary. I have never seen power lines above 
ground, but I have heard there are some in rural France.

I disagree with your conclusion - essential infrastructure should be buried if 
possible. The US makes too many excuses for second rate performance. Level3 
buried its infrastructure. This is a case where sacrificing short term profits 
for better long term performance is well worth it.

Both California and Florida will end up burying their power lines. In 
California the wildfires make exposed cables just too dangerous and it is 
cheaper long term in Florida to bury than to repair pole infrastructure every 
year.

Drama like Texas is not just an exception that will face away into memory. We 
Americans can expect to see the country pounded this century with storms and 
rising waters. NYC alone will need to spend over $150 billion to preserve its 
existing living zones from storm surges.

I do acknowledge the cost may be too high for less densely populated ares, but 
at least some of the telecom and energy infrastructure linking large cities to 
each other and to energy generation and water supplies should better protected.

This is just the beginning as any climate scientist will tell you.

-R.


From: Peter Beckman 
Sent: Wednesday, February 17, 2021 6:27 AM
To: Rod Beck 
Cc: Sean Donelan ; Mikael Abrahamsson ; 
nanog@nanog.org 
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

On Tue, 16 Feb 2021, Rod Beck wrote:

> Are the power lines buried like in Europe where I live?
>
> I really think using poles is crazy and global warming guarantees enough
> atmospheric turbulence to make it untenable. Florida is moving to bury
> power lines.

 Only 41% of European lines are underground [1]. Population density is
 higher in the UK, 280 per sq km, versus the US, 34 per sq km [2].

 Netherlands: 423 per sq km
 Belgium: 376 per sq km
 Germany: 233 per sq km
 Switzerland: 208 per sq km
 Italy: 200 per sq km

 When population density is low, the cost to install buried lines does
 not make financial sense, even considering the outages.

 In major cities, lines are buried in the US.

 Granted, there are several US States that individually are similar to
 Europe:

 New Jersey: 467 per sq km
 Massachussetts: 331 per sq km
 New York: 161 per sq km (despite having NYC, largest city in the US)
 California: 95 per sq km (despite having LA, 2nd largest city in the US)
 Texas: 39 per sq km

 Buried lines makes sense where it makes sense. Comparing Europe to the
 US is way too broad, and I don't know where you live.


[1] 
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-05/why-europe-pays-less-than-u-s-to-put-power-lines-underground
[2] 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population_density

> 
> From: NANOG  on 
> behalf of Mikael Abrahamsson via NANOG 
> Sent: Tuesday, February 16, 2021 9:06 AM
> To: Sean Donelan 
> Cc: nanog@nanog.org 
> Subject: RE: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts
>
> On Mon, 15 Feb 2021, Sean Donelan wrote:
>
>> Strange the massive shortages and failures are only in one state.
>>
>> The extreme cold weather extends northwards across many states, which aren't
>> reporting rolling blackouts.
>
> https://www.texastribune.org/2011/02/08/texplainer-why-does-texas-have-its-own-power-grid/
>
> Going at it alone can be beneficial sometimes, sometimes it's not.
>
> --
> Mikael Abrahamssonemail: swm...@swm.pp.se
>

---
Peter Beckman  Internet Guy
beck...@angryox.com http://www.angryox.com/
---

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Karl Auer]

On Wed, 2021-02-17 at 00:27 -0500, Peter Beckman wrote:
>  Buried lines makes sense where it makes sense.

Aesthetically, burying lines always makes sense. Sadly not enough
communities (and definitely too few governments) place any value on
aesthetics at all.

I've never heard anyone, ever, say "Golly, what a lovely profusion of
cables this place has! How charmingly they subdivide the view of the
sky! How delightfully they criss-cross every street and laneway!"

I wrote this back in 2013. If I've missed anything, feel free to let me
know off-list:

https://biplane.com.au/blog/?p=276

Regards, K.

-- 
~~~
Karl Auer (ka...@biplane.com.au)
http://www.biplane.com.au/kauer

GPG fingerprint: 2561 E9EC D868 E73C 8AF1 49CF EE50 4B1D CCA1 5170
Old fingerprint: 8D08 9CAA 649A AFEF E862 062A 2E97 42D4 A2A0 616D

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Peter Beckman]

On Tue, 16 Feb 2021, Rod Beck wrote:


Are the power lines buried like in Europe where I live?

I really think using poles is crazy and global warming guarantees enough
atmospheric turbulence to make it untenable. Florida is moving to bury
power lines.


Only 41% of European lines are underground [1]. Population density is
higher in the UK, 280 per sq km, versus the US, 34 per sq km [2].

Netherlands: 423 per sq km
Belgium: 376 per sq km
Germany: 233 per sq km
Switzerland: 208 per sq km
Italy: 200 per sq km

When population density is low, the cost to install buried lines does
not make financial sense, even considering the outages.

In major cities, lines are buried in the US.

Granted, there are several US States that individually are similar to
Europe:

New Jersey: 467 per sq km
Massachussetts: 331 per sq km
New York: 161 per sq km (despite having NYC, largest city in the US)
California: 95 per sq km (despite having LA, 2nd largest city in the US)
Texas: 39 per sq km

Buried lines makes sense where it makes sense. Comparing Europe to the
US is way too broad, and I don't know where you live.


[1] 
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-05/why-europe-pays-less-than-u-s-to-put-power-lines-underground
[2] 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population_density



From: NANOG  on behalf of 
Mikael Abrahamsson via NANOG 
Sent: Tuesday, February 16, 2021 9:06 AM
To: Sean Donelan 
Cc: nanog@nanog.org 
Subject: RE: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

On Mon, 15 Feb 2021, Sean Donelan wrote:


Strange the massive shortages and failures are only in one state.

The extreme cold weather extends northwards across many states, which aren't
reporting rolling blackouts.


https://www.texastribune.org/2011/02/08/texplainer-why-does-texas-have-its-own-power-grid/

Going at it alone can be beneficial sometimes, sometimes it's not.

--
Mikael Abrahamssonemail: swm...@swm.pp.se



---
Peter Beckman  Internet Guy
beck...@angryox.com http://www.angryox.com/
---

RE: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Peter Beckman]

On Tue, 16 Feb 2021, Robert Jacobs wrote:


How about letting us Texans have more natural gas power plants or even
let the gas be delivered to the plants we have so they can provide more
power in an emergency.  Did not help that 20% of our power is now wind
which of course in an ice storm like we are having is shut off... Lots of
issues and plenty of politics involved here..


 Turns out that you Texans already get a majority of your power from
 Natural Gas.

 So there's already a significant amount of power from natural gas already.

 Things I learned about the most-of-Texas Grid today:

- Natural Gas plants provide MORE THAN HALF of their total electricity
generation in 2019 (WOW!)
- Texas has their own grid to avoid Federal regulation.
- Texas does have some links to other grids but they don't trigger 
federal
regulation for some reason.
- Texas is the largest energy-producing and energy-consuming state in
the nation. The industrial sector, including its refineries and
petrochemical plants, accounts for half of the energy consumed in the
state.
- 5 Gigawatts of coal-fired capacity has retired since 2016, and
supplies 20% of power currently.
- Wind power provided about 17% of their usage
- There are two nuclear plants in Texas, only providing 10% of power.
- One of those nuclear plants are offline due to weather-related issues.

From the WashPost: 

"The Texas grid got crushed because its operators didn’t see the need to
prepare for cold weather"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/02/16/ercot-texas-electric-grid-failure/

---
Peter Beckman  Internet Guy
beck...@angryox.com http://www.angryox.com/
---

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Kevin East]

100%.  Our system has been on stage 2 aux heat (electric) ever since we
dropped below 24 or so.  Usually we might see it for a few hours on the
coldest nights.  I'd say most people are probably pulling full summer load
+20%.

On Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 5:10 PM Seth Mattinen  wrote:

> On 2/16/21 09:49, Michael Thomas wrote:
> >
> > On 2/16/21 8:50 AM, John Von Essen wrote:
> >> I just assumed most people in Texas have heat pumps- AC in the summer
> >> and minimal heating in the winter when needed. When the entire state
> >> gets a deep freeze, everybody is running those heat pumps non-stop,
> >> and the generation capacity simply wasn’t there. i.e. coal or natural
> >> gas plants have some turbines offline, etc.,. in the winter because
> >> historically power use is much much less. The odd thing is its been
> >> days now, those plants should be able to ramp back up to capacity -
> >> but clearly they haven’t. Blaming this on wind turbines is BS. In
> >> fact, if it weren’t for so many people in Texas with grid-tie solar
> >> systems, the situation would be even worse.
> >
> > You'd think that mid-summer Texas chews a lot more peak capacity than
> > the middle of winter. Plus I would think a lot of Texas uses natural gas
> > for heat rather than electricity further mitigating its effect on the
> grid.
> >
>
> The difference is that in extreme cold heat pump systems are likely
> switching on emergency heat (i.e. plain old resistance heaters) when the
> compressor alone can no longer keep up with call for heat demand, which
> requires significantly more power. That's never happening in the summer,
> which is only ever running the compressor.
>

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Marco Belmonte]

Can you let us know how you access the information you are seeing for 
Texas? I went to the website and can't find anything that allows me to 
actually view some data other than a twitter feed.


On 2/15/2021 5:53 PM, Sean Donelan wrote:
Not as bad as Myanmar (14%), Internet connectivity in Texas has been 
declining today.  According to NetBlocks, which normally monitors 
government imposed outages, reports network connectivity at 68% in Texas.


https://netblocks.org/

Texas operates a separate electric grid, with limited interconnections 
to the rest of North America.  For political reasons


For those with long memories, ENRON a Texas based corporation, once 
upon a time drove rolling blackouts across California in order to make 
billions.

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Haudy Kazemi via NANOG]

On Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 17:12 Seth Mattinen  wrote:

> On 2/16/21 09:49, Michael Thomas wrote:
> >
> > On 2/16/21 8:50 AM, John Von Essen wrote:
> >> I just assumed most people in Texas have heat pumps- AC in the summer
> >> and minimal heating in the winter when needed. When the entire state
> >> gets a deep freeze, everybody is running those heat pumps non-stop,
> >> and the generation capacity simply wasn’t there. i.e. coal or natural
> >> gas plants have some turbines offline, etc.,. in the winter because
> >> historically power use is much much less. The odd thing is its been
> >> days now, those plants should be able to ramp back up to capacity -
> >> but clearly they haven’t. Blaming this on wind turbines is BS. In
> >> fact, if it weren’t for so many people in Texas with grid-tie solar
> >> systems, the situation would be even worse.
> >
> > You'd think that mid-summer Texas chews a lot more peak capacity than
> > the middle of winter. Plus I would think a lot of Texas uses natural gas
> > for heat rather than electricity further mitigating its effect on the
> grid.
> >
>
> The difference is that in extreme cold heat pump systems are likely
> switching on emergency heat (i.e. plain old resistance heaters) when the
> compressor alone can no longer keep up with call for heat demand, which
> requires significantly more power. That's never happening in the summer,
> which is only ever running the compressor.
>


Modern air source heat pumps, including air to water units, do not need to
fallback to resistance until somewhere in the -4 to -22 degrees F range,
depending on ASHP model. That is colder than the lowest lows reported so
far in TX during the current polar vortex. Older units from say 30 years
ago had significantly higher cutover points. I'm guessing the installed
equipment base in TX probably includes a lot of older units.

The difference is while old air source heat pumps were enough to provide
all the HVAC needs in moderate temps, modern units can also provide all the
heating needs in cold climates like found in Minnesota and Wisconsin, all
while maintaining a COP > 1.0, i.e. better than resistance.

Building energy performance also matters. Leaky buildings can expect high
energy requirements as the desired interior temperature diverges from the
exterior temperature. Well built homes can be heated on nothing more than
the output of a regular toaster.

I read that part of the TX issue was a natural gas supply shortfall, where
natgas was prioritized to heating applications, leaving electric power
generation short. MicroCHP and/or district heating tied into available heat
sources (maybe also to datacenter cooling?) would be of great benefit in
keeping the lights on and places warm.

The attempts to place blame on renewables are disingenuous distractions
away from infrastructural design weaknesses that are being exposed by
stressed systems. There are examples of renewables working fine, in colder
regions, with high (up to 100%) fractions of energy coming from renewable
sources. These systems tend to maximize the use of every available BTU or
kWh, and they don't try to solve everything by just throwing more BTUs and
kWh at the problem. For starters, there is a relatively simple geothermal
system, designed by a man in Nebraska, that allows him to grow citrus:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZD_3_gsgsnk

https://greenhouseinthesnow.com

>

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Fred Baker]

True, Sean, but Texas has its own ISO. The counterpart wouldn’t be “Delaware 
has rolling blackouts”, but “The Eastern ISO has following blackouts”.

Sent from my iPad

> On Feb 15, 2021, at 8:49 PM, Sean Donelan  wrote:
> 
> 
> 
>> On Tue, 16 Feb 2021, Cory Sell via NANOG wrote:
>> adoption. Sure, wind isn’t perfect, but looks like solution relied on failed
>> in a massive way.
> 
> Strange the massive shortages and failures are only in one state.
> 
> The extreme cold weather extends northwards across many states, which aren't 
> reporting rolling blackouts.

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Brett Frankenberger]

On Tue, Feb 16, 2021 at 08:02:38AM +0200, Mark Tinka wrote:
> 
> On 2/16/21 07:49, Matthew Petach wrote:
> 
> > Isn't that a result of ERCOT stubbornly refusing to interconnect with
> > the rest of the national grid, out of an irrational fear of coming under
> > federal regulation?
> > 
> > I suspect that trying to be self-sufficient works most of the time--but
> > when you get to the edges of the bell curve locally, your ability to be
> > resilient and survive depends heavily upon your ability to be supported
> > by others around you.  This certainly holds true for individual humans;
> > I suspect power grids aren't that different.
> 
> If there was a state-wide blackout, they'd need to restart from the national
> grid anyway. 

The Texas Grid has black-start capability.  In the event of a
state-wide blackout, they would not restart from the Eastern or Western
US Grid.

> Why not have some standing interconnection agreement with them
> anyway, that gets activated in cases such as these?

They have 820MW of interconnection with the Eastern Interconnect (the
Eastern US grid).  During most of this, it's been moving nearly 820MW
into Texas.  (Three were power shortages and rolling blackouts in
portions of the Eastern Interconnect also, although for much shorter
windows of time.  During those times, less power was flowing into
Texas, presumably because the Eastern Interconnect didn't have it
available (in the right places).)

Connections are more expensive that just a transmission line, because
you have to go AC-DC-AC (or have a rotary frequency converter).

> Sorry, unfamiliar with U.S. politics in this regard, so just doing 1+1.

Three grids, Western, Eastern, and Texas.  A GW or so of DC ties
between the Eastern and Western; nothing between the Western and Texas
(directly), and, as noted above, 880MW between the Eastern and Texas. 
(Very roughly, that's 2% of peak demand for the Texas grid.)

Eastern and Western exist largely for technical reasons (too big to
keep synchronized, at least without building a lot more ties between
them).  Texas is independent largely for political reasons.

 -- Brett

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Michael Thomas]

On 2/16/21 3:19 PM, Sabri Berisha wrote:

- On Feb 16, 2021, at 6:28 AM, Michael Thomas m...@mtcc.com wrote:


We use propane. It's less dense energy-wise than gasoline, but it's
really easy to switch over.

Why not use both? Plenty of generators that are dual fuel out there.
Last year I converted my Duramax to dual fuel by replacing the
carburator. Easy-peasy.


gasoline has a shelf life, though with PG that isn't a problem :/

but the larger issue is that i really would prefer not have a bunch of 
gasoline around. it's messier too in comparison to just switching a 
propane tank. we have like three or four 5 gallon tanks which we use in 
the mean time for bbq's, etc. we manage to run the things we need for 
about 24 hours on one tank.


Mike

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Sabri Berisha]

- On Feb 16, 2021, at 6:28 AM, Michael Thomas m...@mtcc.com wrote:

> We use propane. It's less dense energy-wise than gasoline, but it's
> really easy to switch over.

Why not use both? Plenty of generators that are dual fuel out there.
Last year I converted my Duramax to dual fuel by replacing the 
carburator. Easy-peasy.

Thanks,

Sabri

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Seth Mattinen]

On 2/16/21 09:49, Michael Thomas wrote:


On 2/16/21 8:50 AM, John Von Essen wrote:
I just assumed most people in Texas have heat pumps- AC in the summer 
and minimal heating in the winter when needed. When the entire state 
gets a deep freeze, everybody is running those heat pumps non-stop, 
and the generation capacity simply wasn’t there. i.e. coal or natural 
gas plants have some turbines offline, etc.,. in the winter because 
historically power use is much much less. The odd thing is its been 
days now, those plants should be able to ramp back up to capacity - 
but clearly they haven’t. Blaming this on wind turbines is BS. In 
fact, if it weren’t for so many people in Texas with grid-tie solar 
systems, the situation would be even worse.


You'd think that mid-summer Texas chews a lot more peak capacity than 
the middle of winter. Plus I would think a lot of Texas uses natural gas 
for heat rather than electricity further mitigating its effect on the grid.




The difference is that in extreme cold heat pump systems are likely 
switching on emergency heat (i.e. plain old resistance heaters) when the 
compressor alone can no longer keep up with call for heat demand, which 
requires significantly more power. That's never happening in the summer, 
which is only ever running the compressor.

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[William Herrin]

On Mon, Feb 15, 2021 at 8:18 PM Robert Jacobs 
wrote:

> How about letting us Texans have more natural gas power plants or even let
> the gas be delivered to the plants we have so they can provide more power
> in an emergency. Did not help that 20% of our power is now wind which of
> course in an ice storm like we are having is shut off... Lots of issues and
> plenty of politics involved here..
>

CNN reports that some natural gas and oil plants as well as one nuclear
plant have gone offline because the water source they depend on froze.

"Natural gas and coal-fired power plants need water to stay online. Yet
those water facilities froze in the cold temperatures"

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/16/business/texas-power-energy-nightmare/index.html

Regards,
Bill Herrin

-- 
William Herrin
b...@herrin.us

https://bill.herrin.us/

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Carsten Bormann]

On 16. Feb 2021, at 16:40, Yang Yu  wrote:
> 
> You can find ERCOT Operations 
> Messageshttp://www.ercot.com/services/comm/mkt_notices/opsmessages

No, I can’t.
(OK, with a handy VPN, I do get access. )

Grüße, Carsten


Access Denied
Error 16
www.ercot.com
2021-02-16 22:12:17 UTC
If you believe you have a valid business reason for accessing ERCOT resources, 
please contact the ERCOT HelpDesk at 512-248-6800 or 1-866-870-8124 (USA) or 
helpd...@ercot.com.
Please provide the HelpDesk with the information supplied below.
Your IP: 80.137.168.40
Error code: 16
 > This request was blocked by the security rules
 
What happened?
This request was blocked by the security rules
Your IP: 80.137.168.40
Proxy IP: 185.11.125.144 (ID 10535-100)
Incident ID: 535000310029634434-105306125617268682

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Chris Boyd]

> On Feb 16, 2021, at 11:51 AM, Michael Thomas  wrote:
> 
> You'd think that mid-summer Texas chews a lot more peak capacity than the 
> middle of winter. Plus I would think a lot of Texas uses natural gas for heat 
> rather than electricity further mitigating its effect on the grid.
> 
> Mike

The eia.gov site shows it to be about a 50/50 split between natural gas and 
electric heating. Propane fills in a few more percent. Yes, the grid does get 
quite strained in the summer from AC use. 

—Chris, from Austin

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Rich Kulawiec]

On Tue, Feb 16, 2021 at 04:17:15AM +, Robert Jacobs wrote:
> How about letting us Texans have more natural gas power plants or even
> let the gas be delivered to the plants we have so they can provide more
> power in an emergency.  Did not help that 20% of our power is now wind
> which of course in an ice storm like we are having is shut off... Lots
> of issues and plenty of politics involved here..

First, wind-generation-is-responsible-for-this is a canard that's
already been debunked elsewhere in this thread.

Second, wind generation works just fine all winter in places like
Quebec and the Alps because they design, build, and operate it to.
Various de-icing solutions have been available for years, and market
competition is continuously making them better and cheaper.

Third, trying to slap a fossil fuel band-aid on a problem whose root
cause is...wait for it...fossil fuels...while certainly a tempting option,
is not a viable long-term solution.

---rsk

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Sabri Berisha]

- On Feb 16, 2021, at 5:01 AM, Sean Donelan s...@donelan.com wrote:

> On Tue, 16 Feb 2021, Rod Beck wrote:
>> Are the power lines buried like in Europe where I live?

They are not buried everywhere. They are buried in most western EU
countries perhaps. But I invite you to go to Ferizaj, Kosovo, for example.
 
> In California, they use rolling blackouts BEFORE wildfires to prevent
> power line sparking causing wildfires. Not because of damage to the
> outside plant. In Texas, they use rolling blackouts because they didn't
> have enough generation capacity online.

I do remember last September being threatened with rolling power outages
as a result of the lack of capacity. 

Check this article in the Mercury News, for example: 
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/09/06/california-grid-managers-watching-closely-as-weather-presents-power-outage-threats/

Thanks,

Sabri

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Ishmael Rufus]

Maybe Texas can learn from its Northern neighbors.
[image: image.png]

On Mon, Feb 15, 2021 at 10:19 PM Robert Jacobs 
wrote:

> How about letting us Texans have more natural gas power plants or even let
> the gas be delivered to the plants we have so they can provide more power
> in an emergency. Did not help that 20% of our power is now wind which of
> course in an ice storm like we are having is shut off... Lots of issues and
> plenty of politics involved here..
>
> Robert Jacobs​
>  |  Data Center Manager
> <http://www.pslightwave.com/>
> Direct:  *832-615-7742* <832-615-7742>
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> Fax:  *713-510-1650*
> 5959 Corporate Dr. Suite 3300; Houston, TX 77036
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> <http://www.pslightwave.com/> A Certified Woman‑Owned Business
> 24x7x365 Customer Support: 832-615-8000 | supp...@pslightwave.com
>
> ​This electronic message contains information from PS Lightwave which may
> be privileged and confidential. The information is intended to be for the
> use of individual(s) or entity named above. If you are not the intended
> recipient, any disclosure, copying, distribution or use of the contents of
> this information is prohibited. If you have received this electronic
> message in error, please notify me by telephone or e-mail immediately.
> -Original Message-----
> From: NANOG  On Behalf
> Of Mark Tinka
> Sent: Monday, February 15, 2021 10:06 PM
> To: nanog@nanog.org
> Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts
>
>
>
> On 2/16/21 04:14, Sean Donelan wrote:
> >
> > Poweroutage.us posted a terrific map, showing the jurisdictional
> > borders of the Texas power outages versus the storm related power
> > outages elsewhere in the country.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/PowerOutage_us/status/1361493394070118402
> >
> >
> > Sometimes infrastructure planning failures are not due to "natural
> > hazards."
>
> I suppose having some kind of home backup solution wouldn't be too bad
> right now, even though you may still not get access to services. But at
> least, you can brew some coffee, and charge your pulse oximetre.
>
> Mark.
>
>

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Miles Fidelman]

Last time I looked - admittedly a while - Texas made it VERY difficult 
for municipalities to set up broadband utilities, even in areas where no 
commercial player was interested.  Maybe that's catching up to them.


Miles Fidelman

Brandon Svec wrote:
Mismanagement and poor planning are primarily to blame.  One can't 
just blame the weather.  We know weather will be bad and have extreme 
variations.  I am sure Texas politicians are considering what they 
could have done better right now.. 
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/1361682089310052354

*Brandon *



On Tue, Feb 16, 2021 at 8:53 AM John Von Essen <mailto:j...@essenz.com>> wrote:


I just assumed most people in Texas have heat pumps- AC in the
summer and minimal heating in the winter when needed. When the
entire state gets a deep freeze, everybody is running those heat
pumps non-stop, and the generation capacity simply wasn’t there.
i.e. coal or natural gas plants have some turbines offline, etc.,.
in the winter because historically power use is much much less.
The odd thing is its been days now, those plants should be able to
ramp back up to capacity - but clearly they haven’t. Blaming this
on wind turbines is BS. In fact, if it weren’t for so many people
in Texas with grid-tie solar systems, the situation would be even
worse.

And of course, the real issue is Texas’ closed grid - any other
state could pull in more power from neighbors.

-John


On Feb 15, 2021, at 11:34 PM, Cory Sell via NANOG
mailto:nanog@nanog.org>> wrote:

Ercot has already released actual documentation of the outputs.
Wind is NOT the biggest loss here. Even if wind was operating at
100% capacity, we’d be in the same boat due to gas and fossil
fuel-related generation being decimated. Estimated 4GW lost for
wind doesn’t make up for the 30GW+ estimated being lost from
fossil fuels.

I only interject because people are already pointing their
fingers at renewables being the cause here and trying to pawn off
the blame to wind/solar to further their agendas to reduce
renewable energy R and adoption. Sure, wind isn’t perfect, but
looks like solution relied on failed in a massive way.

Sent from ProtonMail Mobile


On Mon, Feb 15, 2021 at 10:17 PM, Robert Jacobs
mailto:rjac...@pslightwave.com>> wrote:

How about letting us Texans have more natural gas power plants
or even let the gas be delivered to the plants we have so they
can provide more power in an emergency. Did not help that 20% of
our power is now wind which of course in an ice storm like we
are having is shut off... Lots of issues and plenty of politics
involved here..

Robert Jacobs

 |  Data Center Manager

<http://www.pslightwave.com/>
Direct: *832-615-7742* 
Mobile: *281-830-2092* 
Main:   832‑615‑8000
Fax:*713-510-1650*

5959 Corporate Dr. Suite 3300; Houston, TX 77036
Facebook <https://www.facebook.com/pslightwave/>


LinkedIn <https://www.linkedin.com/company/pslightwave>


Twitter <https://twitter.com/PSLightwave>

<http://www.pslightwave.com/> A Certified Woman‑Owned 
Business

24x7x365 Customer Support: 832-615-8000 |
supp...@pslightwave.com <mailto:supp...@pslightwave.com>

This electronic message contains information from PS Lightwave
which may be privileged and confidential. The information is
intended to be for the use of individual(s) or entity named
above. If you are not the intended recipient, any disclosure,
copying, distribution or use of the contents of this information
is prohibited. If you have received this electronic message in
error, please notify me by telephone or e-mail immediately.

-Original Message-
From: NANOG mailto:nanog-bounces+rjacobs=pslightwave@nanog.org>> On
Behalf Of Mark Tinka
Sent: Monday, February 15, 2021 10:06 PM
    To: nanog@nanog.org <mailto:nanog@nanog.org>
    Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts



On 2/16/21 04:14, Sean Donelan wrote:
>
> Poweroutage.us <http://Poweroutage.us> posted a terrific map,
showing the jurisdictional
> borders of the Texas power outages versus the storm related power
> outages elsewhere in the country.
>
> https://twitter.com/PowerOutage_us/status/1361493394070118402
>
>
> Sometimes infrastructure planning failures are not due to
"natural
> hazards."

I suppose having some kind of home backup solution wouldn't be
too bad right now, even though you may still not get access to
services. But at least, you can brew some coffee, and charge
your pulse oximetre.

Mark.









--
In theory, there is no difference between

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Michael Thomas]

On 2/16/21 8:50 AM, John Von Essen wrote:
I just assumed most people in Texas have heat pumps- AC in the summer 
and minimal heating in the winter when needed. When the entire state 
gets a deep freeze, everybody is running those heat pumps non-stop, 
and the generation capacity simply wasn’t there. i.e. coal or natural 
gas plants have some turbines offline, etc.,. in the winter because 
historically power use is much much less. The odd thing is its been 
days now, those plants should be able to ramp back up to capacity - 
but clearly they haven’t. Blaming this on wind turbines is BS. In 
fact, if it weren’t for so many people in Texas with grid-tie solar 
systems, the situation would be even worse.


You'd think that mid-summer Texas chews a lot more peak capacity than 
the middle of winter. Plus I would think a lot of Texas uses natural gas 
for heat rather than electricity further mitigating its effect on the grid.


Mike

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Brandon Svec]

Mismanagement and poor planning are primarily to blame.  One can't just
blame the weather.  We know weather will be bad and have extreme
variations.  I am sure Texas politicians are considering what they could
have done better right now..
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/1361682089310052354
*Brandon *


On Tue, Feb 16, 2021 at 8:53 AM John Von Essen  wrote:

> I just assumed most people in Texas have heat pumps- AC in the summer and
> minimal heating in the winter when needed. When the entire state gets a
> deep freeze, everybody is running those heat pumps non-stop, and the
> generation capacity simply wasn’t there. i.e. coal or natural gas plants
> have some turbines offline, etc.,. in the winter because historically power
> use is much much less. The odd thing is its been days now, those plants
> should be able to ramp back up to capacity - but clearly they haven’t.
> Blaming this on wind turbines is BS. In fact, if it weren’t for so many
> people in Texas with grid-tie solar systems, the situation would be even
> worse.
>
> And of course, the real issue is Texas’ closed grid - any other state
> could pull in more power from neighbors.
>
> -John
>
> On Feb 15, 2021, at 11:34 PM, Cory Sell via NANOG  wrote:
>
> Ercot has already released actual documentation of the outputs. Wind is
> NOT the biggest loss here. Even if wind was operating at 100% capacity,
> we’d be in the same boat due to gas and fossil fuel-related generation
> being decimated. Estimated 4GW lost for wind doesn’t make up for the 30GW+
> estimated being lost from fossil fuels.
>
> I only interject because people are already pointing their fingers at
> renewables being the cause here and trying to pawn off the blame to
> wind/solar to further their agendas to reduce renewable energy R and
> adoption. Sure, wind isn’t perfect, but looks like solution relied on
> failed in a massive way.
>
> Sent from ProtonMail Mobile
>
>
> On Mon, Feb 15, 2021 at 10:17 PM, Robert Jacobs 
> wrote:
>
> How about letting us Texans have more natural gas power plants or even let
> the gas be delivered to the plants we have so they can provide more power
> in an emergency. Did not help that 20% of our power is now wind which of
> course in an ice storm like we are having is shut off... Lots of issues and
> plenty of politics involved here..
>
> Robert Jacobs
>  |  Data Center Manager
> <http://www.pslightwave.com/>
> Direct:  *832-615-7742* <832-615-7742>
> Mobile:  *281-830-2092* <281-830-2092>
> Main:  832‑615‑8000
> Fax:  *713-510-1650*
> 5959 Corporate Dr. Suite 3300; Houston, TX 77036
> [image: Facebook] <https://www.facebook.com/pslightwave/>
> [image: LinkedIn] <https://www.linkedin.com/company/pslightwave>
> [image: Twitter] <https://twitter.com/PSLightwave>
> <http://www.pslightwave.com/> A Certified Woman‑Owned Business
> 24x7x365 Customer Support: 832-615-8000 | supp...@pslightwave.com
>
> This electronic message contains information from PS Lightwave which may
> be privileged and confidential. The information is intended to be for the
> use of individual(s) or entity named above. If you are not the intended
> recipient, any disclosure, copying, distribution or use of the contents of
> this information is prohibited. If you have received this electronic
> message in error, please notify me by telephone or e-mail immediately.
> -Original Message-
> From: NANOG  On Behalf
> Of Mark Tinka
> Sent: Monday, February 15, 2021 10:06 PM
> To: nanog@nanog.org
> Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts
>
>
>
> On 2/16/21 04:14, Sean Donelan wrote:
> >
> > Poweroutage.us posted a terrific map, showing the jurisdictional
> > borders of the Texas power outages versus the storm related power
> > outages elsewhere in the country.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/PowerOutage_us/status/1361493394070118402
> >
> >
> > Sometimes infrastructure planning failures are not due to "natural
> > hazards."
>
> I suppose having some kind of home backup solution wouldn't be too bad
> right now, even though you may still not get access to services. But at
> least, you can brew some coffee, and charge your pulse oximetre.
>
> Mark.
>
>
>
>
>

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[John Von Essen]

I just assumed most people in Texas have heat pumps- AC in the summer and 
minimal heating in the winter when needed. When the entire state gets a deep 
freeze, everybody is running those heat pumps non-stop, and the generation 
capacity simply wasn’t there. i.e. coal or natural gas plants have some 
turbines offline, etc.,. in the winter because historically power use is much 
much less. The odd thing is its been days now, those plants should be able to 
ramp back up to capacity - but clearly they haven’t. Blaming this on wind 
turbines is BS. In fact, if it weren’t for so many people in Texas with 
grid-tie solar systems, the situation would be even worse. 

And of course, the real issue is Texas’ closed grid - any other state could 
pull in more power from neighbors.

-John

> On Feb 15, 2021, at 11:34 PM, Cory Sell via NANOG  wrote:
> 
> Ercot has already released actual documentation of the outputs. Wind is NOT 
> the biggest loss here. Even if wind was operating at 100% capacity, we’d be 
> in the same boat due to gas and fossil fuel-related generation being 
> decimated. Estimated 4GW lost for wind doesn’t make up for the 30GW+ 
> estimated being lost from fossil fuels. 
> 
> I only interject because people are already pointing their fingers at 
> renewables being the cause here and trying to pawn off the blame to 
> wind/solar to further their agendas to reduce renewable energy R and 
> adoption. Sure, wind isn’t perfect, but looks like solution relied on failed 
> in a massive way.
> 
> Sent from ProtonMail Mobile
> 
> 
> On Mon, Feb 15, 2021 at 10:17 PM, Robert Jacobs  <mailto:rjac...@pslightwave.com>> wrote:
>> 
>> How about letting us Texans have more natural gas power plants or even let 
>> the gas be delivered to the plants we have so they can provide more power in 
>> an emergency. Did not help that 20% of our power is now wind which of course 
>> in an ice storm like we are having is shut off... Lots of issues and plenty 
>> of politics involved here.. 
>> 
>> Robert Jacobs​
>>  |   Data Center Manager
>>  <http://www.pslightwave.com/>
>> Direct:  832-615-7742 
>> Mobile:  281-830-2092 
>> Main:832‑615‑8000
>> Fax: 713-510-1650 <>
>> 5959 Corporate Dr. Suite 3300; Houston, TX 77036 
>>  <https://www.facebook.com/pslightwave/> 
>>  <https://www.linkedin.com/company/pslightwave>  
>>  <https://twitter.com/PSLightwave>
>>  <http://www.pslightwave.com/>   A Certified Woman‑Owned 
>> Business 
>> 24x7x365 Customer Support: 832-615-8000 | supp...@pslightwave.com
>> 
>> ​This electronic message contains information from PS Lightwave which may be 
>> privileged and confidential. The information is intended to be for the use 
>> of individual(s) or entity named above. If you are not the intended 
>> recipient, any disclosure, copying, distribution or use of the contents of 
>> this information is prohibited. If you have received this electronic message 
>> in error, please notify me by telephone or e-mail immediately.
>> -Original Message-
>> From: NANOG  On Behalf Of 
>> Mark Tinka
>> Sent: Monday, February 15, 2021 10:06 PM
>> To: nanog@nanog.org
>> Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> On 2/16/21 04:14, Sean Donelan wrote:
>> >
>> > Poweroutage.us posted a terrific map, showing the jurisdictional 
>> > borders of the Texas power outages versus the storm related power 
>> > outages elsewhere in the country.
>> >
>> > https://twitter.com/PowerOutage_us/status/1361493394070118402
>> >
>> >
>> > Sometimes infrastructure planning failures are not due to "natural 
>> > hazards."
>> 
>> I suppose having some kind of home backup solution wouldn't be too bad right 
>> now, even though you may still not get access to services. But at least, you 
>> can brew some coffee, and charge your pulse oximetre.
>> 
>> Mark.
>> 
> 
> 

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Matt Erculiani]

Texas does have DC ties to other grids, there just isn't enough capacity
there to really matter (820 MW total to the Eastern US grid). This is
fairly standard though when you're on your own grid, UK and France have DC
ties as well that run underneath the English Channel.

ERCOT is using a little bit currently:
http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/real_time_system_conditions.html

On Tue, Feb 16, 2021 at 9:17 AM Mike Hammett  wrote:

> Agreed.
>
> Well, or interconnection with other grids that *do* have available
> generation.  :-)
>
>
>
> -
> Mike Hammett
> Intelligent Computing Solutions <http://www.ics-il.com/>
> <https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL>
> <https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb>
> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions>
> <https://twitter.com/ICSIL>
> Midwest Internet Exchange <http://www.midwest-ix.com/>
> <https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix>
> <https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange>
> <https://twitter.com/mdwestix>
> The Brothers WISP <http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/>
> <https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp>
> <https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg>
> --
> *From: *"Robert DeVita" 
> *To: *"Mike Hammett" , "Rod Beck" <
> rod.b...@unitedcablecompany.com>
> *Cc: *nanog@nanog.org
> *Sent: *Tuesday, February 16, 2021 7:30:50 AM
> *Subject: *Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts
>
> What’s going on in Texas has nothing to do with power distribution. It has
> to do with ability to generate power.
>
> Robert DeVita
> Founder & CEO
> Mejeticks
> c. 469-441-8864
> e. radev...@mejeticks.com
> --
> *From:* NANOG  on behalf
> of Mike Hammett 
> *Sent:* Tuesday, February 16, 2021 7:25:12 AM
> *To:* Rod Beck 
> *Cc:* nanog@nanog.org 
> *Subject:* Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts
>
> It's cheaper to build 2x, 3x, 4x the aerial plant than to build 1x the
> underground plant.
>
> The actual cost per foot is more like 10x difference, but there are right
> of way, maintenance, etc. costs to factor in as well.
>
>
>
> -
> Mike Hammett
> Intelligent Computing Solutions
>
> Midwest Internet Exchange
>
> The Brothers WISP
>
> --
> *From: *"Rod Beck" 
> *To: *"Sean Donelan" , "Mikael Abrahamsson" <
> swm...@swm.pp.se>
> *Cc: *nanog@nanog.org
> *Sent: *Tuesday, February 16, 2021 6:05:41 AM
> *Subject: *Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts
>
> Are the power lines buried like in Europe where I live?
>
> I really think using poles is crazy and global warming guarantees enough
> atmospheric turbulence to make it untenable. Florida is moving to bury
> power lines.
>
> --
> *From: *NANOG 
> on behalf of Mikael Abrahamsson via NANOG 
> *Sent: *Tuesday, February 16, 2021 9:06 AM
> *To: *Sean Donelan 
> *Cc: *nanog@nanog.org 
> *Subject: *RE: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts
> On Mon, 15 Feb 2021, Sean Donelan wrote:
>
> > Strange the massive shortages and failures are only in one state.
> >
> > The extreme cold weather extends northwards across many states, which
> aren't
> > reporting rolling blackouts.
>
> https://www.texastribune.org/2011/02/08/texplainer-why-does-texas-have-its-own-power-grid/
>
>
> Going at it alone can be beneficial sometimes, sometimes it's not.
>
> --
> Mikael Abrahamssonemail: swm...@swm.pp.se
>
>
>

-- 
Matt Erculiani
ERCUL-ARIN

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Mike Hammett]

I was referring to electrical distribution or transmission. Putting in a 2" 
conduit with some glass in it is a different beast than 34kv or 345kv lines. 
:-) 




- 
Mike Hammett 
Intelligent Computing Solutions 

Midwest Internet Exchange 

The Brothers WISP 

- Original Message -

From: "Jared Mauch"  
To: "Mike Hammett"  
Cc: "Rod Beck" , nanog@nanog.org 
Sent: Tuesday, February 16, 2021 8:38:11 AM 
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts 



> On Feb 16, 2021, at 8:25 AM, Mike Hammett  wrote: 
> 
> It's cheaper to build 2x, 3x, 4x the aerial plant than to build 1x the 
> underground plant. 
> 
> The actual cost per foot is more like 10x difference, but there are right of 
> way, maintenance, etc. costs to factor in as well. 
> 

Labor is something in 8x but the permit/engineering cost is usually the same 
per foot, but the make-ready on poles can make underground competitive or more 
like 1.5x when you fully bake the costs. Really depends on pole distances and 
quality. O long-term is lower on underground vs aerial. 

- Jared 

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Mike Hammett]

Agreed. 

Well, or interconnection with other grids that *do* have available generation. 
:-) 




- 
Mike Hammett 
Intelligent Computing Solutions 

Midwest Internet Exchange 

The Brothers WISP 

- Original Message -

From: "Robert DeVita"  
To: "Mike Hammett" , "Rod Beck" 
 
Cc: nanog@nanog.org 
Sent: Tuesday, February 16, 2021 7:30:50 AM 
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts 





What’s going on in Texas has nothing to do with power distribution. It has to 
do with ability to generate power. 



Robert DeVita 
Founder & CEO 
Mejeticks 
c. 469-441-8864 
e. radev...@mejeticks.com 

From: NANOG  on behalf of Mike 
Hammett  
Sent: Tuesday, February 16, 2021 7:25:12 AM 
To: Rod Beck  
Cc: nanog@nanog.org  
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts 


It's cheaper to build 2x, 3x, 4x the aerial plant than to build 1x the 
underground plant. 


The actual cost per foot is more like 10x difference, but there are right of 
way, maintenance, etc. costs to factor in as well. 




- 
Mike Hammett 
Intelligent Computing Solutions 

Midwest Internet Exchange 

The Brothers WISP 



From: "Rod Beck"  
To: "Sean Donelan" , "Mikael Abrahamsson"  
Cc: nanog@nanog.org 
Sent: Tuesday, February 16, 2021 6:05:41 AM 
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts 


Are the power lines buried like in Europe where I live? 



I really think using poles is crazy and global warming guarantees enough 
atmospheric turbulence to make it untenable. Florida is moving to bury power 
lines. 






From: NANOG  on behalf 
of Mikael Abrahamsson via NANOG  
Sent: Tuesday, February 16, 2021 9:06 AM 
To: Sean Donelan  
Cc: nanog@nanog.org  
Subject: RE: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts 


On Mon, 15 Feb 2021, Sean Donelan wrote: 

> Strange the massive shortages and failures are only in one state. 
> 
> The extreme cold weather extends northwards across many states, which aren't 
> reporting rolling blackouts. 

https://www.texastribune.org/2011/02/08/texplainer-why-does-texas-have-its-own-power-grid/
 

Going at it alone can be beneficial sometimes, sometimes it's not. 

-- 
Mikael Abrahamsson email: swm...@swm.pp.se 

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[JASON BOTHE via NANOG]

The professor has it right. Before the state privatized the grid and made 
ERCOT, we never had these problems. Every few years, these private companies 
complain they need a rate hike because they need a grant to ‘beef up’ the 
infrastructure and it’s granted although we seem to keep having this issue. I’m 
certain history will continue to repeat itself. 

> On Feb 16, 2021, at 06:32, John Sage  wrote:
> 
> On 2/16/21 4:22 AM, John Sage wrote:
>>> On 2/15/21 10:02 PM, Mark Tinka wrote:
>>> 
>>> 
 On 2/16/21 07:49, Matthew Petach wrote:
>>> 
 
 Isn't that a result of ERCOT stubbornly refusing to interconnect with the 
 rest of the national grid, out of an irrational fear of coming under 
 federal regulation?
>> Yes. This has been widely documented in numerous articles, both very 
>> recently and previously.
> 
> As one example only, of many:
> 
> "What went wrong with the Texas power grid?"
> 
> Marcy de Luna, Amanda Drane, Houston Chronicle
> 
> Feb. 15, 2021
> Updated: Feb. 15, 2021 9:23 p.m.
> 
> "Dan Woodfin, ERCOT’s senior director of system operations, said the rolling 
> blackouts are taking more power offline for longer periods than ever before. 
> An estimated 34,000 megawatts of power generation — more than a third of the 
> system’s total generating capacity — had been knocked offline by the extreme 
> winter weather amid soaring demand as residents crank up heating systems."
> 
> . . .
> 
> "Ed Hirs, an energy fellow in the Department of Economics at the University 
> of Houston, blamed the failures on the state’s deregulated power system, 
> which doesn’t provide power generators with the returns needed to invest in 
> maintaining and improving power plants.
> 
> “The ERCOT grid has collapsed in exactly the same manner as the old Soviet 
> Union,” said Hirs. “It limped along on underinvestment and neglect until it 
> finally broke under predictable circumstances."
> 
> https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Wholesale-power-prices-spiking-across-Texas-15951684.php
>  
> 
> 
> - John
> __

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Yang Yu]

On Tue, Feb 16, 2021 at 6:11 AM Rod Beck 
wrote:

> Anyone wants to provide some details on where the system has faltered? It
> is transmission? Or generation? Or just everything in general? 
>


You can find ERCOT Operations Messageshttp://
www.ercot.com/services/comm/mkt_notices/opsmessages
>From what I understand generation/transmission/distribution are all
affected to different degrees.

On Fuel Mix Report: 2021, wind was 25% by GWh for 2021 January, current it
is ~9%

http://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/generation
http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/real_time_system_conditions.html  (DC
Tie is non-synchronize connection to other grids)


>Market Participants that own or operate facilities that are part of the
Bulk Electric System, as defined in federal law, are subject to oversight
by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), the North American
Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), and Texas Reliability Entity, Inc.
(Texas RE).
http://www.ercot.com/mktrules/compliance

ERCOT is subject to (federal) NERC Reliability Standards, but not
interstate transmission regulations.
Only generation and retail electric providers are deregulated. Transmission
and distribution are not. Municipally owned utilities and electric coop in
ERCOT region are exempt from unbundling (from vertically integrated
monopoly).

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Rod Beck]

It will happen because storm frequency and outages will rise throughout the 
century. It is a capital investment that will sharply reduce outages. Florida 
is on the verge of putting their long-haul power underground. Texas is primed 
for storms due to the high and growing humidity in the Gulf. Finally, capital 
costs - interest - is low. Both governments and big corporates pay very little 
to borrow so it is not onerous. May be it is time to make America great again. 

Nor does it have to be mandatory for all systems. But there should be at least 
one power network in the ground as well as one telco network.

Regards,

Roderick.


From: Jared Mauch 
Sent: Tuesday, February 16, 2021 3:38 PM
To: Mike Hammett 
Cc: Rod Beck ; nanog@nanog.org 

Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts



> On Feb 16, 2021, at 8:25 AM, Mike Hammett  wrote:
>
> It's cheaper to build 2x, 3x, 4x the aerial plant than to build 1x the 
> underground plant.
>
> The actual cost per foot is more like 10x difference, but there are right of 
> way, maintenance, etc. costs to factor in as well.
>

Labor is something in 8x but the permit/engineering cost is usually the same 
per foot, but the make-ready on poles can make underground competitive or more 
like 1.5x when you fully bake the costs.  Really depends on pole distances and 
quality.  O long-term is lower on underground vs aerial.

- Jared

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Jared Mauch]

> On Feb 16, 2021, at 8:25 AM, Mike Hammett  wrote:
> 
> It's cheaper to build 2x, 3x, 4x the aerial plant than to build 1x the 
> underground plant.
> 
> The actual cost per foot is more like 10x difference, but there are right of 
> way, maintenance, etc. costs to factor in as well.
> 

Labor is something in 8x but the permit/engineering cost is usually the same 
per foot, but the make-ready on poles can make underground competitive or more 
like 1.5x when you fully bake the costs.  Really depends on pole distances and 
quality.  O long-term is lower on underground vs aerial.

- Jared

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Bret Clark]

Texas doesn't generally experience this type of extreme cold. The power grids 
are being overload due to people using their electric heat or electric portable 
heaters.


From: NANOG  on behalf of 
Rod Beck 
Sent: Tuesday, February 16, 2021 7:09 AM
To: Robert Jacobs ; Mark Tinka ; 
nanog@nanog.org ; Cory Sell 
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

The problems with renewables is that you can't switch on or off and there is no 
good storage solution.

However, the issue in Texas is probably exposed power cables. In Europe they 
are buried and we have far milder weather than the States.

Anyone wants to provide some details on where the system has faltered? It is 
transmission? Or generation? Or just everything in general? 


From: NANOG  on behalf 
of Cory Sell via NANOG 
Sent: Tuesday, February 16, 2021 5:34 AM
To: Robert Jacobs ; Mark Tinka ; 
nanog@nanog.org 
Subject: RE: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

Ercot has already released actual documentation of the outputs. Wind is NOT the 
biggest loss here. Even if wind was operating at 100% capacity, we’d be in the 
same boat due to gas and fossil fuel-related generation being decimated. 
Estimated 4GW lost for wind doesn’t make up for the 30GW+ estimated being lost 
from fossil fuels.

I only interject because people are already pointing their fingers at 
renewables being the cause here and trying to pawn off the blame to wind/solar 
to further their agendas to reduce renewable energy R and adoption. Sure, 
wind isn’t perfect, but looks like solution relied on failed in a massive way.

Sent from ProtonMail Mobile


On Mon, Feb 15, 2021 at 10:17 PM, Robert Jacobs 
mailto:rjac...@pslightwave.com>> wrote:
How about letting us Texans have more natural gas power plants or even let the 
gas be delivered to the plants we have so they can provide more power in an 
emergency. Did not help that 20% of our power is now wind which of course in an 
ice storm like we are having is shut off... Lots of issues and plenty of 
politics involved here..

Robert Jacobs​
 |  Data Center Manager
[http://www.pslightwave.com/emailsig/plwlogo.jpg]<http://www.pslightwave.com/>
Direct: 832-615-7742
Mobile: 281-830-2092
Main:   832‑615‑8000
Fax:713-510-1650
5959 Corporate Dr. Suite 3300; Houston, TX 77036
[Facebook]<https://www.facebook.com/pslightwave/>
[LinkedIn]<https://www.linkedin.com/company/pslightwave>
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-Original Message-
From: NANOG  On Behalf Of Mark 
Tinka
Sent: Monday, February 15, 2021 10:06 PM
To: nanog@nanog.org
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts



On 2/16/21 04:14, Sean Donelan wrote:
>
> Poweroutage.us posted a terrific map, showing the jurisdictional
> borders of the Texas power outages versus the storm related power
> outages elsewhere in the country.
>
> https://twitter.com/PowerOutage_us/status/1361493394070118402
>
>
> Sometimes infrastructure planning failures are not due to "natural
> hazards."

I suppose having some kind of home backup solution wouldn't be too bad right 
now, even though you may still not get access to services. But at least, you 
can brew some coffee, and charge your pulse oximetre.

Mark.

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Michael Thomas]

On 2/16/21 3:05 AM, Jared Mauch wrote:
Almost exactly 4 years ago we were out up here in Michigan for over 
120 hours after a wind storm took out power to 1 million homes. Large 
scale restoration takes time. When the load and supply are imbalanced 
it can make things worse as well.


I'm hoping things return to normal soon but also am reminded it can 
take some time.


We now have a large generator with automatic switchover after that 
event. Filling gas cans every 12 hours to feed the generator is no fun.


We use propane. It's less dense energy-wise than gasoline, but it's 
really easy to switch over.


Mike

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Robert DeVita]

What’s going on in Texas has nothing to do with power distribution. It has to 
do with ability to generate power.

Robert DeVita
Founder & CEO
Mejeticks
c. 469-441-8864
e. radev...@mejeticks.com

From: NANOG  on behalf of Mike 
Hammett 
Sent: Tuesday, February 16, 2021 7:25:12 AM
To: Rod Beck 
Cc: nanog@nanog.org 
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

It's cheaper to build 2x, 3x, 4x the aerial plant than to build 1x the 
underground plant.

The actual cost per foot is more like 10x difference, but there are right of 
way, maintenance, etc. costs to factor in as well.



-
Mike Hammett
Intelligent Computing Solutions 

[http://www.ics-il.com/images/fbicon.png] 

 [http://www.ics-il.com/images/googleicon.png]  

 [http://www.ics-il.com/images/linkedinicon.png]  

 [http://www.ics-il.com/images/twittericon.png]  

Midwest Internet Exchange 

[http://www.ics-il.com/images/fbicon.png] 

 [http://www.ics-il.com/images/linkedinicon.png]  

 [http://www.ics-il.com/images/twittericon.png]  

The Brothers WISP 

[http://www.ics-il.com/images/fbicon.png] 

 [http://www.ics-il.com/images/youtubeicon.png]  


From: "Rod Beck" 
To: "Sean Donelan" , "Mikael Abrahamsson" 
Cc: nanog@nanog.org
Sent: Tuesday, February 16, 2021 6:05:41 AM
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

Are the power lines buried like in Europe where I live?

I really think using poles is crazy and global warming guarantees enough 
atmospheric turbulence to make it untenable. Florida is moving to bury power 
lines.


From: NANOG  on behalf 
of Mikael Abrahamsson via NANOG 
Sent: Tuesday, February 16, 2021 9:06 AM
To: Sean Donelan 
Cc: nanog@nanog.org 
Subject: RE: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts
On Mon, 15 Feb 2021, Sean Donelan wrote:

> Strange the massive shortages and failures are only in one state.
>
> The extreme cold weather extends northwards across many states, which aren't
> reporting rolling blackouts.

https://www.texastribune.org/2011/02/08/texplainer-why-does-texas-have-its-own-power-grid/
 


Going at it alone can be beneficial sometimes, sometimes it's not.

--
Mikael Abrahamssonemail: swm...@swm.pp.se

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Mike Hammett]

It's cheaper to build 2x, 3x, 4x the aerial plant than to build 1x the 
underground plant. 


The actual cost per foot is more like 10x difference, but there are right of 
way, maintenance, etc. costs to factor in as well. 




- 
Mike Hammett 
Intelligent Computing Solutions 

Midwest Internet Exchange 

The Brothers WISP 

- Original Message -

From: "Rod Beck"  
To: "Sean Donelan" , "Mikael Abrahamsson"  
Cc: nanog@nanog.org 
Sent: Tuesday, February 16, 2021 6:05:41 AM 
Subject: Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts 


Are the power lines buried like in Europe where I live? 



I really think using poles is crazy and global warming guarantees enough 
atmospheric turbulence to make it untenable. Florida is moving to bury power 
lines. 






From: NANOG  on behalf 
of Mikael Abrahamsson via NANOG  
Sent: Tuesday, February 16, 2021 9:06 AM 
To: Sean Donelan  
Cc: nanog@nanog.org  
Subject: RE: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts 


On Mon, 15 Feb 2021, Sean Donelan wrote: 

> Strange the massive shortages and failures are only in one state. 
> 
> The extreme cold weather extends northwards across many states, which aren't 
> reporting rolling blackouts. 

https://www.texastribune.org/2011/02/08/texplainer-why-does-texas-have-its-own-power-grid/
 

Going at it alone can be beneficial sometimes, sometimes it's not. 

-- 
Mikael Abrahamsson email: swm...@swm.pp.se 

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[Sean Donelan]

On Tue, 16 Feb 2021, Rod Beck wrote:

Are the power lines buried like in Europe where I live?


Rolling blackouts in Texas (or elsewhere) are not caused by storm damage.

Rolling blackouts are administrative actions (turn off power, turn on 
power) taken by the system operator.  They can "turn on" the power after a 
rolling blackout with a switch because there is no damage to the outside 
plant.


In California, they use rolling blackouts BEFORE wildfires to prevent 
power line sparking causing wildfires. Not because of damage to the 
outside plant. In Texas, they use rolling blackouts because they didn't 
have enough generation capacity online.


Again, the rolling blackouts in Texas is not due to storm damage.  Its 
because natural gas power generator plants froze, and Texas is an 
separate electric grid from the rest of North America due to political 
reasons. That's why the rolling blackouts stop at the Texas border 
(approximately).


Chicago Illinois (3rd largest metro area) power plants haven't frozen, and 
can use power from states across the north-central US grid.


Most of Texas is rural and cheap. Power lines are built above ground. 
Only in a few dense urban areas, i.e. downtown Dallas or downtown 
Houston, are power lines underground for aesthetic reasons.

Re: Texas internet connectivity declining due to blackouts

[John Sage]

On 2/16/21 4:22 AM, John Sage wrote:

On 2/15/21 10:02 PM, Mark Tinka wrote:



On 2/16/21 07:49, Matthew Petach wrote:



Isn't that a result of ERCOT stubbornly refusing to interconnect with 
the rest of the national grid, out of an irrational fear of coming 
under federal regulation?


Yes. This has been widely documented in numerous articles, both very 
recently and previously.




As one example only, of many:

"What went wrong with the Texas power grid?"

Marcy de Luna, Amanda Drane, Houston Chronicle

Feb. 15, 2021
Updated: Feb. 15, 2021 9:23 p.m.

"Dan Woodfin, ERCOT’s senior director of system operations, said the 
rolling blackouts are taking more power offline for longer periods than 
ever before. An estimated 34,000 megawatts of power generation — more 
than a third of the system’s total generating capacity — had been 
knocked offline by the extreme winter weather amid soaring demand as 
residents crank up heating systems."


. . .

"Ed Hirs, an energy fellow in the Department of Economics at the 
University of Houston, blamed the failures on the state’s deregulated 
power system, which doesn’t provide power generators with the returns 
needed to invest in maintaining and improving power plants.


“The ERCOT grid has collapsed in exactly the same manner as the old 
Soviet Union,” said Hirs. “It limped along on underinvestment and 
neglect until it finally broke under predictable circumstances."


https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Wholesale-power-prices-spiking-across-Texas-15951684.php 




- John
__